So, coronavirus...

[TheNatalShark]

With 570k doses in England yesterday, supposedly just under 700k UK, 'quiet' month really proving not so quiet as the late March mild hysteria over re second dose needs and India's export restrictions warranted.

Wonder if those restrictions will be dropped to deliver second 5mm consignment, presume unlikely, and if UK will ever have supplies to hit 1mm daily jab mark before not needed and rollout sites wind down. Perhaps if Novavax comes through. Though Pfizer really appears to be opening the taps for Q2 production, but imagine they will prioritise other first time clients if meeting UK orders.

[TheNatalShark]

Seems that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also cause blood clots

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... influenza/

Come on Denmark, ban them.

Remind us why Biffer they indefinitely suspended their AZ rollout - do you think the Danish authorities are ignoring reports and potential affects of other vaccines?

Will the UK change its Pfizer/Moderna guidance tomorrow? Is the JCVI stupid for provisionally changing its guidance on AZ, and its explanation for provisionally changing AZ guidance is nothing more than complete and utter jibberish?

[TheNatalShark]

I posted a new article a while back saying contracts with vaccine companies says anything sold to US must be used within us territories.

To the best of my knowledge, over two thirds of US production from AZ has been contracted to countries other than US (primarily Canada and Mexico). The trouble is that AZ can't even send what they're contracted to to either country without a Presidential signature, because some of the production capability in the US was funded under there Defense Procurement Act. There's 30 million plus doses sat in the US that wont last forever. 4 million odd were released to Canada and Mexico last month under a reciprocal agreement that said they would be replace, but even that caused issues internally in the US. There's a very real chance that the majority of what has alreay been produced will be allowed to go to waste.

I recall reading a bit of both, that the subsidised production also took place under emergency authorisation to do so and that as such certain legal indemnities reside with the federal government, so that in addition to the Trump general executive order (not rescinded) production in the US is reversed for US unless presidential approval for export given, but then there is also legal work in transferring legal matters to the importing country for the "for US doses".

Needs some brave work by Biden with political capital he either doesn't have, or more likely, doesn't care enough (yet) to acquire.

Ironically in between the international AZ reviews, incidents like the reported 15mm J&J doses ruined "because of parallel AZ production", and its stellar Pfizer and Moderna roll-out, these 'negative' incidents may have a beneficial impact of making a potential export of AZ doses easier.


Somewhat annoying how bloody good the Americans can be when they set their minds on it.

[Hong Kong]

[Glaston]

Seems that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also cause blood clots

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... influenza/

Come on Denmark, ban them.

Remind us why Biffer they indefinitely suspended their AZ rollout - do you think the Danish authorities are ignoring reports and potential affects of other vaccines?

Will the UK change its Pfizer/Moderna guidance tomorrow? Is the JCVI stupid for provisionally changing its guidance on AZ, and its explanation for provisionally changing AZ guidance is nothing more than complete and utter jibberish?

Similar to what Biffer posted

Comparison of clotting between Vaccines.
Info from Oxford Uni
https://osf.io/a9jdq/

Huge difference in PVT with those vaccinated with Pfizer/Moderna, something like 30 times higher than OAZ

[Raggs]

Seems that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also cause blood clots

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... influenza/

Come on Denmark, ban them.

Remind us why Biffer they indefinitely suspended their AZ rollout - do you think the Danish authorities are ignoring reports and potential affects of other vaccines?

Will the UK change its Pfizer/Moderna guidance tomorrow? Is the JCVI stupid for provisionally changing its guidance on AZ, and its explanation for provisionally changing AZ guidance is nothing more than complete and utter jibberish?

Care to say what the JCVI stance is. Let's avoid the back and forth. People are offered an alternative (they don't have to accept an alternative) to AZ if it's available. So JCVI stance is give them AZ, it's fine, but if it helps uptake, offer something else.

Denmark suspended AZ because their case numbers are currently so low they can afford to be extremely picky. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them though, as if they get another wave, they could have had a significant number of people vaccinated if they hadn't changed stances.

[TheNatalShark]

Care to say what the JCVI stance is. Let's avoid the back and forth. People are offered an alternative (they don't have to accept an alternative) to AZ if it's available. So JCVI stance is give them AZ, it's fine, but if it helps uptake, offer something else.

Denmark suspended AZ because their case numbers are currently so low they can afford to be extremely picky. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them though, as if they get another wave, they could have had a significant number of people vaccinated if they hadn't changed stances.

I've nothing to add or subtract from that.

Understanding why they actually take decisions, understanding that they undertake them in their believed best interest of their pops and are irrefutably more qualified to do so than us is important. Rather than some assumption, inference or accusation that they are doing it as part of some crusade against a particular vaccine or nation 'of origin', because of our own made up reasons.

Re concern yes they've said, explicitly, if there was evidence or risk of infection numbers rising that they would consider resuming AZ rollout. As it is they already traded away so much of its AZ orders for Pfizer jabs last year that this decision won't have that material an impact on rollout, particularly given actual numbers being delivered.

[Sandstorm]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

[Saint]

BoJo's jolly to India cancelled; hopefully we can now put India onto Red List

[BnM]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

We know we're going to get more cases it's whether we get more deaths, it's a game of chicken. Drove past local hipster/artisanal brewery place on Friday afternoon, gorgeous sun and it was heaving. Nightingale hospital has been packed up.

[Fangle]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

[SaintK]

BoJo's jolly to India cancelled; hopefully we can now put India onto Red List

From 4:00am this Friday. Not sure why they can't start sooner?

[Saint]

BoJo's jolly to India cancelled; hopefully we can now put India onto Red List

From 4:00am this Friday. Not sure why they can't start sooner?

Christ alone knows

In the meantime just 4 deaths reported for yesterday, 10.15 people double dosed, nearly 33 million with at least one dose

[Sandstorm]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

But you also sit indoors with the aircon going. Once the temp gets high, people in S States will meet inside again.

[Fangle]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

But you also sit indoors with the aircon going. Once the temp gets high, people in S States will meet inside again.

Hopefully a majority will be vaccinated by then. Only a third of Georgians have had their first jabs and a fifth their second. There is a struggle to get it done. Greater supply than appointments.

[Paddington Bear]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

[shaggy]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

[Saint]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

[shaggy]

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

True, but decisions on control measures will need to be far more clearly based on the extremis to ensure the general public are kept on board. Numbers almost however big mean little in the future when people are not ending up in hospital. This is a good outcome.

[Sandstorm]

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

Sounds like a huge waste of money for what is just the flu.

[tc27]

Interesting comparisons of different UK nations:



NI has the most dysfunctional administration yet seems to have done better than the mainland.

[BnM]

France is currently 13% UK 47% ish few weeks and even with slow down we're still vaccinating a lot everyday. What is this man on, has he lost the plot, mistranslation

'Few' is doing a lot of work in that quote.

They're also going to need 30m or so doses too.

Well it's been a few weeks. https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... y-country/
Doses Per 100 people UK 62 France 25.
Hungary and Serbia are doing great though. Though Hungary is using Sputnik and the Sino one. don't know about Serbia.

[shaggy]

Interesting comparisons of different UK nations:



NI has the most dysfunctional administration yet seems to have done better than the mainland.

It’s almost as if factors outside of government response affect the outcome.

[Raggs]

'Few' is doing a lot of work in that quote.

They're also going to need 30m or so doses too.

Well it's been a few weeks. https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... y-country/
Doses Per 100 people UK 62 France 25.
Hungary and Serbia are doing great though. Though Hungary is using Sputnik and the Sino one. don't know about Serbia.

In the end the telling result between tortoise and hare comparisons isn't how many are vaccinated. It's how many have died since vaccines were available and could take effect. Uk has done really well on that front with its hare approach. Even if we don't succeed with our July target the vaccination strategy has clearly been a success.

[Insane_Homer]

Be very concerned about flights from India.

Exhibit A - Flight 6395

https://simpleflying.com/vistara-covid-positive-flight/

Passengers who are allowed to travel to Hong Kong must have a PCR test within 72 hours of travel. On arrival, they must undergo additional testing and stay in a government-mandated quarantine facility at their own expense for 21 days.

On arrival in Hong Kong, the passengers entered the mandatory quarantine as normal. Six reportedly tested positive at the airport. However, soon after, more passengers began testing positive.

A total of 25 passengers tested positive for COVID to the end of last week. On day 12 of the quarantine period, all travellers were tested again. Incredibly, 22 more passengers tested positive.

This brings the total positive passengers to an astounding 47, the most ever recorded on a flight to Hong Kong. A seat map of positive cases shared online shows a cluster in the middle of the economy section, but also other cases spread throughout the aircraft, even in first class.

[Paddington Bear]

Would really love to understand the logic behind the delay to changing a nation's status on the red list. India isn't the first it has happened to, and I really can't work it out.

[BnM]

Maybe it's something negotiated with India, they are currently withholding 5m AZ doses?

[Marylandolorian]

Would really love to understand the logic behind the delay to changing a nation's status on the red list. India isn't the first it has happened to, and I really can't work it out.

This has been the problem since the beginning of the pandemic, WHO are the first one to be blamed.

[SaintK]

Maybe it's something negotiated with India, they are currently withholding 5m AZ doses?

Or maybe sosmething to do with the fact that until yersterday the blonde slug was due to visit India for a meeting with Modi

[Saint]

Either way, the real problem is that there's travel agents now looking to charter planes to bring as many people over from India as possible before Friday

[Mahoney]

Colleague of my wife was planning on flying back from India just before the red list came into force. Just got a positive in a PCR test. Going to be a tax nightmare for him if he's there for any longer.

[Saint]

UK vaccine supply seems to be easing a bit - trending up to 3.4 million a week now, both 1st and second doses trending upwards (although there's a LOT more 2nd doses going on)

[Bokkom]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

[Rinkals]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

You're saying that it's just the 'flu?

No different to other influenza viruses?

Before you get indignant and start attacking me for misinterpreting you, that's pretty much what it appears that you are saying. I have family members who are adamant that the whole pandemic is a hoax designed to massage the egos of scientists and politicians and they pretty much express the same opinion.

[tc27]

UK vaccine supply seems to be easing a bit - trending up to 3.4 million a week now, both 1st and second doses trending upwards (although there's a LOT more 2nd doses going on)

Yes looking pretty good:

[FalseBayFC]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

The virus is thriving in temperate and tropical Brazil and India.

[mat the expat]

I was supposed to get my first vaccine tomorrow. Cancelled.

Australia has gone from being the lucky country to the useless country

[Lobby]

Either way, the real problem is that there's travel agents now looking to charter planes to bring as many people over from India as possible before Friday

The FT has done some deeper analysis of India's figures, which make for very sobering reading, in particular their conclusion that all of the official figures are vastly undercounting the real impact, and that daily deaths could be 10X higher than officially reported, ie 17,000 a day rather than 1,700

[Lemoentjie]

India isn't widely vaccinated. If only it would give the SA Government a sense of urgency...

[shaggy]

On a lighter note during my team meeting yesterday we talked about offices reopening and what people’s thoughts and fears were of being in an office with other people for the first time in over a year.

All going nicely to plan until the quietest member raised a recent issue after she returned to the office a few weeks ago - the fear of passing wind and no longer just getting away with muting Teams/Zoom (delete as applicable). We all thought she was referring to someone else until she explained further!