So, coronavirus...

Where goats go to escape
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Raggs wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:23 am From the data released a few days ago:

Age range 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
% first dose 67.6% 77.9% 89.8% 95.5% 98.1% 94.6% 97.4% 100%* 94.9%

Not too bad, considering some 50+ are likely still lining up their first dose. Does seem to be a dropping in uptake though, hopefully it's just due to the length of time it's been open, rather than anything else.
Data from the latest week (20th May)

Age range 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
% 1st dose 77.1% 80.7% 90.3% 95.9% 98.4% 94.7% 97.4% 100%* 94.8%

Good to see the lower age ranges still climbing. With the increased transmission variants, we need good coverage, and we seem to be getting it.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Paddington Bear
Posts: 5961
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:29 pm
Location: Hertfordshire

Un Pilier wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:29 pm All things considered, I’m feeling pretty positive right now, though we are nowhere near normal footfall anywhere.

I watched some of the Giro today and was really struck by the overheads of Florence, a city I know well. I have never seen it anywhere near as quiet, even in the early hours of the morning.
Last time I was in Florence the place was absolutely rammed with Chinese tourists (as indeed was the case for most 'touristy' locations over the last few years, and flights as well). So I guess no surprise they're not around.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
User avatar
Un Pilier
Posts: 700
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:22 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 8:12 am
Un Pilier wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:29 pm All things considered, I’m feeling pretty positive right now, though we are nowhere near normal footfall anywhere.

I watched some of the Giro today and was really struck by the overheads of Florence, a city I know well. I have never seen it anywhere near as quiet, even in the early hours of the morning.
Last time I was in Florence the place was absolutely rammed with Chinese tourists (as indeed was the case for most 'touristy' locations over the last few years, and flights as well). So I guess no surprise they're not around.
Yes, it got to the point it was too busy to enjoy. I have stayed away for the past few years.
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm
dpedin wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:15 pm

I’m the same as you. UK is in a great place at last.
The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...
First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.
Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm
dpedin wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...
First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.
Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!
The latest indications are that it's spread in the UK appears to be less down to transmissibility and more down to relatively unvaccinated multi-generational homes. Early indications as well are that the vaccines are marginally less effective at preventing symptomatic Covid, but appear to be pretty much the same at prevent serious symptomatic Covid and death.
Biffer
Posts: 9141
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Openside wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 5:55 am
Biffer wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 3:29 pm
Openside wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 12:20 pm

Do you know there is this extraordinary thing called conversation with which you can learn all manner of things. For instance I know that 19,000 died before breakfast on the first day of the Somme and I wasn't even there to witness it :wink:
But you still had no experience of the Somme. It's your 'in my experience' BS that people are calling out - it's not your experience it's hearsay.
Aah so if was sophistry rather than the validity of my comment. In which case your ‘experience’ only ever counts for you as an individual.
That's what experience is - what you've done and seen. If other people have done and seen it, it isn't your experience. That's not sophistry, it's just language.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Biffer
Posts: 9141
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm
dpedin wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...
First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.
Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!
Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm

First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.
Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!
Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.
Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?
User avatar
Margin__Walker
Posts: 2744
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:47 am

I just don't see how hospitalisations get back to anything like what we saw in January or put serious strain on the NHS, given the increase in people with antibodies both through vaccination and getting covid in the winter. Especially in vulnerable populations.

Potential for disruption and slower reopening, but nothing like what we've seen

Again based on no expertise whatsoever.
Biffer
Posts: 9141
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am
Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am

Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!
Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.
Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?
I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am
Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am

Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.
Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?
I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html
Hopefully this proves correct, however the impact of the new variant might be the thing that screws things up? Higher transmission rate of new variant might increase number of cases significantly and even though they will be in the 50's or younger there will be an inevitable % who will require hospitalisation, etc.It really has come at just the wrong time and might screw the loosening of the lock down and holidays for a short while? Yet again the Blonde Bumblecunt made a decision, this time with India travel, too late and this might be the result. Would have been easier to piss off Modi for a week or two.
Biffer
Posts: 9141
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 12:50 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am

Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?
I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html
Hopefully this proves correct, however the impact of the new variant might be the thing that screws things up? Higher transmission rate of new variant might increase number of cases significantly and even though they will be in the 50's or younger there will be an inevitable % who will require hospitalisation, etc.It really has come at just the wrong time and might screw the loosening of the lock down and holidays for a short while? Yet again the Blonde Bumblecunt made a decision, this time with India travel, too late and this might be the result. Would have been easier to piss off Modi for a week or two.
This fella goes through his own model, compares with the Warwick model and explains the effects of variations in different assumptions.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Lemoentjie
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:11 am

dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.
Why are MMR rates in the UK falling?
Biffer
Posts: 9141
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Lemoentjie wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 2:29 pm
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.
Why are MMR rates in the UK falling?
Arseholes.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 2:37 pm
Lemoentjie wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 2:29 pm
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.
Why are MMR rates in the UK falling?
Arseholes.
Yep!
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Pro-plaguers for a more serious response. Basically MMR hasn't been that visible in a while, so people start believing the "It's not so bad" bullshit, which is exactly the same that's being peddled for covid too.

Hopefully this pandemic will help focus peoples minds on what we're trying to avoid.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
sockwithaticket
Posts: 8664
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:48 am

An awful lot of people seem to need to experience negative consequences to learn a lesson, they don't accept someone else's experience or expertise as being sufficient reason to do/not do something.
User avatar
fishfoodie
Posts: 8223
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 4:21 pm An awful lot of people seem to need to experience negative consequences to learn a lesson, they don't accept someone else's experience or expertise as being sufficient reason to do/not do something.
I wouldn't mind if this was a case of adults being bitten on the ass, by their own stupidity; but unfortunately, this is a situation where adults are killing, & seriously injuring children; because the adults are fucking idiots !
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start
User avatar
fishfoodie
Posts: 8223
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm

Saint wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start
If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

fishfoodie wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm
Saint wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start
If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.
I suspect that if you didn't have Covid before arriving at the T3/T4 immigration hall, you will have it by the time you leave.
User avatar
tabascoboy
Posts: 6474
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
Location: 曇りの街

Looks like we are going to see a new variant every few weeks or so...
A COVID-19 variant identified in Yorkshire is being investigated by health officials

So far, 49 cases of a new "triple mutant" variation of COVID-19 have been found, mainly in Yorkshire and the Humber. While the variant is being monitored by Public Health England, there is currently no evidence it is more dangerous or more transmissible than the current strains of the novel coronavirus, according to public health officials.
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

Saint wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:51 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm
Saint wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start
If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.
I suspect that if you didn't have Covid before arriving at the T3/T4 immigration hall, you will have it by the time you leave.
So don’t get on the plane in Mexico/India/Dubai/Chile in that case.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Sandstorm wrote: Sat May 22, 2021 4:26 pm
Saint wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:51 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm

If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.
I suspect that if you didn't have Covid before arriving at the T3/T4 immigration hall, you will have it by the time you leave.
So don’t get on the plane in Mexico/India/Dubai/Chile in that case.
No argument from me
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

First evidence in on the effectiveness of Pfizer and AZ against the Indian variant.

The bad news is that a single dose appears to be significantly less effective than against the Kent variant. But the good news is that a second dose appears to be almost exactly as effective against the Indian as the Kent.

So getting that second dose will be increasingly important, and the UK gov will need to keep pushing the population to take that dose even if the background Covid level drops to near zero over the summer
User avatar
tabascoboy
Posts: 6474
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
Location: 曇りの街

Saint wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 7:57 am First evidence in on the effectiveness of Pfizer and AZ against the Indian variant.

The bad news is that a single dose appears to be significantly less effective than against the Kent variant. But the good news is that a second dose appears to be almost exactly as effective against the Indian as the Kent.

So getting that second dose will be increasingly important, and the UK gov will need to keep pushing the population to take that dose even if the background Covid level drops to near zero over the summer
Week and half until my second dose, don't think I'll be offered it earlier.
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

tabascoboy wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 8:09 am
Saint wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 7:57 am First evidence in on the effectiveness of Pfizer and AZ against the Indian variant.

The bad news is that a single dose appears to be significantly less effective than against the Kent variant. But the good news is that a second dose appears to be almost exactly as effective against the Indian as the Kent.

So getting that second dose will be increasingly important, and the UK gov will need to keep pushing the population to take that dose even if the background Covid level drops to near zero over the summer
Week and half until my second dose, don't think I'll be offered it earlier.
Mine happens on Wednesday. Hopefully my 5G kicks in then and I start to see more lizard people. So far it’s been very disappointing.
TheNatalShark
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Denmark confirms it will begin distributing non-mRNA stock to private doctors, after instruction from Charles Michel and Merkel

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theloc ... ers/%3famp

In Norway similarly you can opt to get J&J, but not AZ. Macron specifically told them to do this, as Ursula Von Der Leyden was busy being photographed on the phone.
User avatar
Uncle fester
Posts: 4196
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:42 pm

TheNatalShark wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 10:03 am Denmark confirms it will begin distributing non-mRNA stock to private doctors, after instruction from Charles Michel and Merkel

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theloc ... ers/%3famp

In Norway similarly you can opt to get J&J, but not AZ. Macron specifically told them to do this, as Ursula Von Der Leyden was busy being photographed on the phone.
I'm confused. What's Macron got to do with Norway and Denmark?
User avatar
salanya
Posts: 707
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm

Got the first jab - bloody sore arm now.

Second one isn't till August.

Vaccination centre was like a conveyor belt. Not sure whether I'm more annoyed being treated and moved around like cattle, or whether I'm mostly impressed by the numbers they're managing. Bit of both.
Over the hills and far away........
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 1:31 pm
dpedin wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 12:50 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am

I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html
Hopefully this proves correct, however the impact of the new variant might be the thing that screws things up? Higher transmission rate of new variant might increase number of cases significantly and even though they will be in the 50's or younger there will be an inevitable % who will require hospitalisation, etc.It really has come at just the wrong time and might screw the loosening of the lock down and holidays for a short while? Yet again the Blonde Bumblecunt made a decision, this time with India travel, too late and this might be the result. Would have been easier to piss off Modi for a week or two.
This fella goes through his own model, compares with the Warwick model and explains the effects of variations in different assumptions.
I think the next weeks and couple of months are going to be very interesting! It sounds like it might be a difficult time with lock down easing and more transmissible variant in the community. As above the modelling is very dependant upon the assumptions made but it could go either way. However I am hearing there are some real worries we will see a significant new peak in July. Hopefully we won't see hospitalisations increasing but long covid is a worry. Fingers crossed!

I am due my 2nd jab in 10 days and it takes about 2-3 weeks to become fully effective. I will be wearing mask, following social distancing and avoiding indoor bars and restaurants until end of June. Luckily my golf club has a nice outdoor balcony to have a quiet pint on.
User avatar
tabascoboy
Posts: 6474
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
Location: 曇りの街

salanya wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 12:53 pm Got the first jab - bloody sore arm now.

Second one isn't till August.

Vaccination centre was like a conveyor belt. Not sure whether I'm more annoyed being treated and moved around like cattle, or whether I'm mostly impressed by the numbers they're managing. Bit of both.
This seems to be a common thing with vaccines like flu shots and not just related to COVID from what I have read. It's a sign that the body's immune response is kicking in - which makes me hope that not getting a sore arm afterwards or only a very slight discomfort as I did isn't a sign of a weakened immune system!
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

First actual pint in a pub in 12 months yesterday. Last Sept had a few bottles of Peroni in a restaurant. Then just drinking at home as a couple only.

Went for a long walk, went passed an old scummy pub that has been bought out and “gastro’d” recently. Only about 35% occupancy and was having such fun with wife that we had 2 more drinks and a starter each.

I’ve been ultra-careful, but with 2nd jab next week and plenty of space around our table, I felt good. Got to support local businesses anyway.
User avatar
Tichtheid
Posts: 9400
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:18 am

I read today that the breakthrough in mRNA vaccines has led to tests in vaccinations against some cancers, samples are taken from the tumours and a vaccine is tailored for the patient, early signs are promising with some cases resulting in complete recovery where other treatments have failed.

This truly amazing.
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

Tichtheid wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 3:51 pm I read today that the breakthrough in mRNA vaccines has led to tests in vaccinations against some cancers, samples are taken from the tumours and a vaccine is tailored for the patient, early signs are promising with some cases resulting in complete recovery where other treatments have failed.

This truly amazing.
It is. Have a friend in medical research and she reckons if we throw as much money at other diseases as Covid and get as many trials going, we’ll cure all sorts in no time.
Dinsdale Piranha
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:08 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 3:51 pm I read today that the breakthrough in mRNA vaccines has led to tests in vaccinations against some cancers, samples are taken from the tumours and a vaccine is tailored for the patient, early signs are promising with some cases resulting in complete recovery where other treatments have failed.

This truly amazing.
There's a lot of scope for personalized treatments. I'm aware of some stem cell treatments like that. Take stem cells from people, synthesize more, inject them back in to treat various things. The challenge it to make the process cost effective.
User avatar
Bullet
Posts: 296
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:14 pm
Location: Wimborne, Dorset

Sandstorm wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 3:44 pm First actual pint in a pub in 12 months yesterday. Last Sept had a few bottles of Peroni in a restaurant. Then just drinking at home as a couple only.

Went for a long walk, went passed an old scummy pub that has been bought out and “gastro’d” recently. Only about 35% occupancy and was having such fun with wife that we had 2 more drinks and a starter each.

I’ve been ultra-careful, but with 2nd jab next week and plenty of space around our table, I felt good. Got to support local businesses anyway.
Had first drinks inside a pub since about September on Friday afternoon, 2nd jab was over 3 weeks ago and 4 pubs were pretty empty to ease us back in.
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

Bullet wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 4:04 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 3:44 pm First actual pint in a pub in 12 months yesterday. Last Sept had a few bottles of Peroni in a restaurant. Then just drinking at home as a couple only.

Went for a long walk, went passed an old scummy pub that has been bought out and “gastro’d” recently. Only about 35% occupancy and was having such fun with wife that we had 2 more drinks and a starter each.

I’ve been ultra-careful, but with 2nd jab next week and plenty of space around our table, I felt good. Got to support local businesses anyway.
Had first drinks inside a pub since about September on Friday afternoon, 2nd jab was over 3 weeks ago and 4 pubs were pretty empty to ease us back in.
Most pubs are quieter here, especially indoors. However the local Walkabout was apparently rammed on Saturday night with people clearly too young to have a jab yet. :???:
User avatar
Bullet
Posts: 296
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:14 pm
Location: Wimborne, Dorset

Yeah the Weathespoons was busy but we waited and got a booth. On the way out we noticed teenagers were moving chairs about to sit in bigger groups and the manager seemed to be struggling to stop them all
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Over 762K doses delivered yesterday in the UK - 2nd highest daily total so far.

Overall, 57.5% of all initial planned doses have been delivered so far.

And so far, deaths are continuing to fall - 42 over the last 7 days, down 43.2% from the previous week. 2-3 weeks before we might start seeing an impact from the Indian variant if there is to be one
Post Reply