So, coronavirus...

[Sandstorm]

News out of SA looking a bit grim

Indeed. Expecting a massive spike in deaths over the next 2 weeks.

I'm anticipating Northern Italy numbers as hospitals in the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng reach capacity.

Things at least trending down in the Western Cape, although our limited testing strategy is skewing the data somewhat.

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Won’t be the last one across the Developing World.

[Slick]

Indeed. Expecting a massive spike in deaths over the next 2 weeks.

I'm anticipating Northern Italy numbers as hospitals in the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng reach capacity.

Things at least trending down in the Western Cape, although our limited testing strategy is skewing the data somewhat.

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Won’t be the last one across the Developing World.

Not the thread for this really, but the commentary coming out of SA at the moment is incredibly pessimistic for the future, even from people that are usually relatively upbeat. Load shedding, SAA etc with COVID looking like it might be the spark for some serious upheaval

[Caley_Red]

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Won’t be the last one across the Developing World.

Not the thread for this really, but the commentary coming out of SA at the moment is incredibly pessimistic for the future, even from people that are usually relatively upbeat. Load shedding, SAA etc with COVID looking like it might be the spark for some serious upheaval

My huge network of SA friends over here would concur with that downbeat assessment, I'd imagine.

[Sandstorm]

My huge network of SA friends over here would concur with that downbeat assessment, I'd imagine.

Don't tell the Klingons on the other thread, they'll rip your throat out.

[Longshanks]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

[Smutley]

Winter is coming

[Ymx]

Winter is coming

Very good

[Longshanks]

Winter is coming

Thank you professor

[Biffer]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

[Longshanks]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

Is that your opinion or scientific?

[Raggs]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

[Paddington Bear]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

Really quite baffling. For me:
1) People are actually following social distancing pretty well. Not perfectly obviously but there is much less contact between people, generally people will try and leave space between each other, mask wearing on the tube is pretty well observed etc.
2) Our numbers were wildly inflated by the care homes and now they are to an extent off limits the transmission, and particularly the deaths, is going to reduce.
3) Greater incidences of asymptomatic cases? The numbers remained stubbornly high for a while so if there is a large element of asymptomatic carriers then maybe a lot more of us have had it than we think.
4) The age of people out and about. My local pubs are pretty busy, however normally there is a very mixed age range in there. At the moment you see almost no one out over 40. The 'old man pub' hasn't opened at all. Anecdotally my parents and their friends by and large are doing social gatherings in each other's gardens etc so probably at lower risk.
5) Linked to the above but the average weight of those out and about. The obese have clearly been scared shitless.
6) Wfh = being healthier? Less virus circulating round the office aircon, healthier lunches, time for a walk etc. Maybe we're picking up fewer coughs/colds etc full stop.

[Hal Jordan]

Most kids not being at school probably helped, whether or not they are more or less susceptible to getting or passing it on.

[Longshanks]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

Really quite baffling. For me:
1) People are actually following social distancing pretty well. Not perfectly obviously but there is much less contact between people, generally people will try and leave space between each other, mask wearing on the tube is pretty well observed etc.
2) Our numbers were wildly inflated by the care homes and now they are to an extent off limits the transmission, and particularly the deaths, is going to reduce.
3) Greater incidences of asymptomatic cases? The numbers remained stubbornly high for a while so if there is a large element of asymptomatic carriers then maybe a lot more of us have had it than we think.
4) The age of people out and about. My local pubs are pretty busy, however normally there is a very mixed age range in there. At the moment you see almost no one out over 40. The 'old man pub' hasn't opened at all. Anecdotally my parents and their friends by and large are doing social gatherings in each other's gardens etc so probably at lower risk.
5) Linked to the above but the average weight of those out and about. The obese have clearly been scared shitless.
6) Wfh = being healthier? Less virus circulating round the office aircon, healthier lunches, time for a walk etc. Maybe we're picking up fewer coughs/colds etc full stop.

All interesting.....and make sense. I'm 55 and no chance of going to the pub yet, even though I'm reasonably fit for an old git
Do you think there is anything in the herd immunity theory? Not just from Covid-19 but other coronaviruses?

[Sandstorm]

Do you think there is anything in the herd immunity theory? Not just from Covid-19 but other coronaviruses?

Doubtful. Way too soon. 2-3 years from now only.

[Bimbowomxn]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

[Sandstorm]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

[Longshanks]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

Pub garden is where I'll start. A quiet midweek day in the Compasses @ Gomshall

[Longshanks]

BTW
Is this Bimbo or a spoof?

[Sandstorm]

There's also staff in the pub who shout at you to "STAY IN YOUR SEAT" or "HURRY TO THE TOILET WITHOUT SLOWING OR STOPPING". Like being back in school again.


Pubs used to be expensive, but fun. Now they're just expensive.

[Bimbowomxn]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

[Longshanks]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

What would be helpful is to know if anyone catches coronavirus in a pub. A few pubs had inflected clientele and contacts were told to isolate. But did anyone become infected? We don't know.

[Raggs]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

[Bimbowomxn]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

[Biffer]

So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

[Biffer]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

Line 40

[Longshanks]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

It's a fair point. I think in Surrey 40 confirmed cases. That's 1 in 30000.

[Jock42]

There's also staff in the pub who shout at you to "STAY IN YOUR SEAT" or "HURRY TO THE TOILET WITHOUT SLOWING OR STOPPING". Like being back in school again.


Pubs used to be expensive, but fun. Now they're just expensive.

Its been great, no masses at the bar trying to get served and jumping the queue.

[Bimbowomxn]

There's also staff in the pub who shout at you to "STAY IN YOUR SEAT" or "HURRY TO THE TOILET WITHOUT SLOWING OR STOPPING". Like being back in school again.


Pubs used to be expensive, but fun. Now they're just expensive.

Its been great, no masses at the bar trying to get served and jumping the queue.

[Raggs]

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

You don't think perhaps Fauci is talking about the USA? Where they aren't having a second wave, since they are still in the first one.

[Heron]

USA nees to act together to avoid a shitstorm, but Trump's politicising corona and setting citizens against each other. Could end up with huge civil unrest with local and national administration competing for control of security, food and medical resources. Will a fair election be possible with local lockdowns in place?

[fishfoodie]

There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

That's a very dangerous assumption to make. There are regular cases of super-spreaders who infect dozens of people in a working day. There was a bar in Florida where >50 people, Staff, & Customers got infected over one weekend.

[Sandstorm]

Bimbot has been telling us since March it’s almost impossible to catch Covid. Like really impossible. He’s a fuckwit.

[Biffer]

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

You don't think perhaps Fauci is talking about the USA? Where they aren't having a second wave, since they are still in the first one.

Do you think we’re out of our first one in the UK? Or anywhere in Europe?

[Raggs]

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

You don't think perhaps Fauci is talking about the USA? Where they aren't having a second wave, since they are still in the first one.

Do you think we’re out of our first one in the UK? Or anywhere in Europe?

Well yes. That's why we likely had tens, if not hundreds of thousands of cases earlier, and now we have far fewer.

Let's be a bit clearer. My definition of a wave is a significant number of infections, followed by at least a 50% reduction in total case numbers. A second wave would then be another significant increase on top of the new low. What's yours?

[Bimbowomxn]

Bimbot has been telling us since March it’s almost impossible to catch Covid. Like really impossible. He’s a fuckwit.

Why are you posting out right lies, you’re normally more subtle.

[Bimbowomxn]

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

That's a very dangerous assumption to make. There are regular cases of super-spreaders who infect dozens of people in a working day. There was a bar in Florida where >50 people, Staff, & Customers got infected over one weekend.

Stay home. The rest of us are going out.

[Jambanja]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

If only someone had mentioned this to the virus, infact with it being that difficult to catch, I'm wondering why, but more importantly how, there's even a global pandemic at all.

[Ovals]

1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

It's a fair point. I think in Surrey 40 confirmed cases. That's 1 in 30000.

But that assumes everyone who has Covid19 is tested and confirmed - which we know is not the case.

[TB63]

So... Let me get this right..You go to a pub, hand over your mobile phone details and enjoy a pint..5 days later, you're contacted and told to self isolate for 14 days as someone in the pub has tested positive. .
I can imagine the phone call. .
Boss, I went to the pub and now have to take another 14 days off..
Yeah right.....