fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:17 pm
I don't think anyone can seriously see a reunification ref inside of ten years; but that does give us plenty of time to discuss what reunification would look like !
The problem is that there's almost no-one from the Unionist community, who'll meet publicly, & discuss the topic, because they know they'll get abused by the dickheads
As Brexit has progressed NI Unionist politics has looked more reminiscent of white SA politics in the dying days of apartheid. The big problem for Unionism is they all backed not just Brexit (UUP were Remain, but stupidly flipped to Leave), but by failing to make any choice on what form of Brexit and chasing the unicorn they backed this hard Brexit too. So all their voters know they're totally implicated in an acceleration towards the ROI, and all their voters voted for that without knowing that's what they were doing (and I expect whilst dismissing those in their own community that warned them the whole way).
The reason they will not talk about unification, is because as soon as they do, it becomes more likely. The discussion then isn't "yes" or "no", it instead becomes what to them is the surrender terms.
In SA I guess it was a bit different in that the 1983 and 1992 referendums showed there was a majority of whites which wanted constitutional change, which most at the time interpreted as ending apartheid (especially the 1992 referendum). It was hard to get this will of the majority through the party politics and the fptp electoral system SA had then though (with rigged constituencies).
But anyway, the 1987 and 1989 elections are quite telling. In 1987 there were 3m registered white voters. 1.075m voted National party (the governing party), 547k Conservative Party (an even more far-right split of the National Party) 288k Progressive Federal Party (a liberal party that opposed apartheid), and 1m didn't vote. In 1989 1.039m voted National Party, 680k Conservative Party, 431k Democratic Party (the successor to Progressive Federal party after some mergers), and 1m didn't vote. Despite the Conservative Party growing less than the Democratic Party in absolute and relative terms, the Conservative Party grew more in terms of seats in parliament (because of fptp and crooked constituencies).
The take away in all that wasn't the National Party declining a small amount, nor was it the big growth in the Conservative Party (which never mind ending apartheid, wanted to harden it), it was the growth of the Democratic Party against the odds and despite it still not being a large amount of the 3 million registered voters. In a political system where there's a big existential question, eg "should there be a united Ireland?" or "should apartheid end?", the movement tends to be away from the centre and towards the extremes. When reality hits people, the reaction of most is to double down. We've seen that with Brexit also, it was always framed as a binary question without a middle ground (the Tories have become more extreme, and the Brexit that has happened is more extreme than anything anyone originally campaigned for). So when there is any movement at all towards the centre, especially by a community that stands to lose out, then that's a huge signal. There can't really be any middle ground on "should there be a united Ireland", so when a Unionist votes Alliance they're really saying they're now okay in some shape or form with a united Ireland. If Alliance grows by a bit that's more significant than some DUP voters becoming more extreme and supporting TUV.
At the end of apartheid the National Party negotiated for the government side (which meant for the whites), they basically tried to negotiate for group rights (in other words special carve outs for whites) and failed. The Conservative Party played no role in anything really and everything further to the right (AWB), just huffed and puffed and also influenced nothing (the tiny minority who started bombing were arrested/imprisoned/killed). The problem with not being realistic and getting more extreme, is any chance to influence anything disappears. Today 90%+ of whites who vote, vote for the DA (the successor to the PFP and DP), because if there's a party that wants to improve the lives of everyone that's a better choice than a narrow interest group fighting a war that's already lost and cannot be won.
If Unionist parties were sensible they would be trying to secure pensions, some fair system for whatever happens to land (it's always about the land), equal rights based in individualism not group membership (it can be dangerous for minorities to have their minority status recognised in law, because it opens the door to discrimination decades later, this is even more true for non-visible minorities). The stuff about flags and marches will just seem like irrelevant bullshit as soon as this gets real.
I expect that instead at some point probably not long from now events will just get ahead of them, they'll find they have no influence and no friends (it'll be electoral gold dust for any American president who is involved with bringing about a united Ireland), then they'll have to hope the people they regard enemies are actually decent people.