The Brexit Thread

Where goats go to escape
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fishfoodie
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sefton wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:04 pm
The sun god wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:36 pm
sefton wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:06 pm

Time to move these clowns aside and move to direct rule.
yeah....great idea Sefton.
It certainly is. Keeps Dublin busy and takes the problem off our hands.
Thanks all the same; but we'll pass on having another 500,000 SF drones being added to our electorate; & fucking up our Parliament; until we de-program the ones we already have.

It's not like leaving a baby on the step, & ringing the doorbell; there have to be referendums; North & South; & right now; we ain't interested !
I like neeps
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Uncle fester
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Hal Jordan wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:23 pm "Taken legal advice"

trans. I have spoken to a retired barrister down the golf club who practised in a different area, but he seems to remember something about it from his days as a pupil.
Or "I pulled it out of my jacksie"
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Ymx
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Jacob Rees Mogg ‘Brexit Opportunities’ Minister
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Hal Jordan
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Well, he's made the most of the opportunities. Pity about the rest of us, but he got richer and that's what's important.
Slick
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Ymx wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:39 pm Jacob Rees Mogg ‘Brexit Opportunities’ Minister
It just gets more and more fantastical. Is no one advising No10?

You have to think civil disobedience is a real possibility this summer
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
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fishfoodie
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Slick wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:31 pm
Ymx wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:39 pm Jacob Rees Mogg ‘Brexit Opportunities’ Minister
It just gets more and more fantastical. Is no one advising No10?

You have to think civil disobedience is a real possibility this summer
Not with Pretty Vacants new legislation there won't be !

You get one opportunity to slam your door, really, really hard; when their candidates show up; & that's your lot !

... maybe don't feed the dog for a week beforehand too ?
Slick
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fishfoodie wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:38 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:31 pm
Ymx wrote: Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:39 pm Jacob Rees Mogg ‘Brexit Opportunities’ Minister
It just gets more and more fantastical. Is no one advising No10?

You have to think civil disobedience is a real possibility this summer
Not with Pretty Vacants new legislation there won't be !

You get one opportunity to slam your door, really, really hard; when their candidates show up; & that's your lot !

... maybe don't feed the dog for a week beforehand too ?
It wouldn’t be very disobedient if it was allowed, tbf 😬
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
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fishfoodie
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Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
Colum Eastwood says he would be 'looking at British Government treatment' if he was a unionist

Colum Eastwood has said he would be 'looking closely at how the British Government treats him' if he was a unionist while blaming the DUP for the Protocol due to its support for a hard-Brexit.

Mr. Eastwood was speaking during the passage of the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern) Bill at Westminster on Monday night.

"I hear a lot in this House about the precious Union and how this is all about the Union. Where is the Prime Minister or even his Secretary of State for Northern Ireland when a key part of that supposedly precious Union, the Executive of the devolved Administration of Northern Ireland, has collapsed?

"Nowhere to be seen is the Prime Minister of this precious United Kingdom. If I was a Unionist in Northern Ireland today—I can assure the House I am not—I would be looking very closely at how this Government treat them.


"To be honest, I find it quite shocking we are in this position today. One of the things that has led us to this position is that the Prime Minister, the former Brexit Secretary and the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland have been promising to trigger article 16 for months.

"Of course, the protocol was part of the withdrawal agreement that this Prime Minister negotiated, signed and told everybody was fantastic. But what is worse about all this is that the DUP actually believed him. I have a four-year-old who would not have believed him.

"It is astonishing that, after all of this, the DUP, which championed Brexit—it’s all one United Kingdom referendum, we all have to leave together, we were told—[Interruption.] Then there was an opportunity—[Interruption.]

"Members really want to listen, Mr Deputy Speaker. Then there was an opportunity to stop a border in the Irish sea by voting for the whole of the United Kingdom to stay in the customs union and single market.

"The DUP rejected it. [Interruption.] I hear, 'That wasn’t Brexit.' Well, maybe it is about time that the DUP chose between the purest version of Brexit and the Union they profess to love. Now we have a protocol that had to be put in place because the DUP and others forced the hand of a previous Prime Minister into ensuring there would be a border in the Irish sea."

Mr. Eastwood claimed none of this was a surprise.

"Many of us, people of a nationalist persuasion and people of no persuasion at all, were shouting it loudly on TV and on the radio to tell them: this is what is going to happen if you don’t do something sensible about Brexit. We also have an opportunity. Let us get rid of most of the checks. Let us do it tomorrow. Let us have an Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreement with the European Union. The DUP reject that as well. How did they think this was going to end?

"Now we have the DUP, who for months have held a gun to their own head, telling the British Government and the European Union, 'If you don’t get me what I want, I’ll shoot.' And now they have shot and what have they got?

"This will never precipitate the result they want because it is impossible to do what the DUP wants. That is the reality. This is not about the protocol; this is about an election that will come in the next few months."

Mr. Eastwood claimed the decision to collapse the Executive was about 'shoring up the Unionist support.'

"That is what every election in Northern Ireland is about. Let’s get the people worried! Let’s get them scared! Who is going to be First Minister? Who is going to be Deputy First Minister? The Union is at risk!

"Why not actually work to make the institutions work and persuade the people out there who are interested in this big constitutional debate that they actually should vote for the Union at some point? But everything that the DUP does makes my job easier and easier.

"I do not have to do anything to persuade people to vote for constitutional change. I just have to let the DUP speak, because everything it has done over the past five or six years has led to more support for the Union," he said.

During the same debate the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson quoted the late John Hume in arguing against the Protocol.

"I am a Unionist. I believe passionately in Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom. At the heart of the Belfast agreement is the principle of consensus. The former leader of the Social Democratic and Labour party, John Hume, told us time after time that the way forward in Northern Ireland was not the politics of one side being in charge of the other and of majority rule; it was about consensus.

"On a matter as fundamental as Northern Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom and the harm that the protocol is doing to that relationship, there is not a consensus in Northern Ireland. There is not a single Unionist party and not a single Unionist elected representative who supports the protocol," said the Lagan Valley MP.

Mr. Donaldson said he remembered the former Foyle MP Mark Durkan speaking of the need "'to remove some of the ugly scaffolding' of the Good Friday Agreement".

The DUP leader said: "The sooner we get on with some of that, the better, but that does not involve negating the need for dual consent in Northern Ireland. That consent is not forthcoming from the people I represent.

"There is this idea that the protocol can be proceeded with by ignoring the wishes of Unionists and just telling us, 'Get on with it—you can rage against it,' but that is not what the agreement says. It says that the Government will bring forward 'measures to protect and strengthen the UK internal market' and Northern Ireland’s place within it.

"Yet since the agreement two years ago and since the Command Paper more than six months ago, the Government have done nothing to protect Northern Ireland’s place in the internal market.

"They have not honoured their commitment in the agreement, which is the basis on which my party re-entered the power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland. How long are we expected to be in the position of my Ministers having to implement measures that, day after day, are harming Northern Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom and our economy?"
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/natio ... st-3559456
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tabascoboy
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:25 am Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
Honestly I think there are very many in Government for whom an act of UDI by NI would solve an awful lot of problems. It's mostly the likes of Farage, ironically, who are strongly pro-Union over here.
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The sun god
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redderneck wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:18 pm
The sun god wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:36 pm
sefton wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:06 pm

Time to move these clowns aside and move to direct rule.
yeah....great idea Sefton.
Give 'em what they want? Direct London rule. Obviate in one fell swoop any scintilla of local democratic accountability, let alone responsibility and put a kybosh on what would be seen as an irreversible slide demographically., slicing away the trappings of control and privilege they feel is their birthright.

Cement the Union for another generation, in spite of the fact that the numbers in favour of that diminish year-on-year? Feck off.

There's enough tail wagging dog going on in this world, without pandering to backwards/inwards-obsessed pricks like this.
Did I just majorly Whooooosh you there ?
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Insane_Homer
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Image

:eh: :lol: I'm sure his inbox is being inundated as we speak.
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
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tabascoboy
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Insane_Homer wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:43 am Image

:eh: :lol: I'm sure his inbox is being inundated as we speak.
tempted to reply with "Needs more tits"
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Jim Lahey
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:25 am Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
The DUP really have fucked this one up.

As I said in an earlier post a roadmap for a unification referendum needs laid out in the next 2 or 3 years. NI as a devolved state simply isn't working and its time to shit or get off the pot.

Let the DUP and UUP make their case for remaining part of the union, let the SDLP/Shinners make their case, let the southern parties make their case if they even want us, and what life would look like if unification were to happen, then let the people north and south decide, with a majority both north and south required for unification to happen.

Not sure what the polling data suggests in ROI but I could imagine a scenario were the north vote for a UI and the south vote against, in which case the nationalists up north need to be told to STFU for a generation and actually work within the framework to improve NI. Likewise if unification were to happen the unionist parties need to buy into the new state with "cultural provisions" to preserve their heritage blah blag blah.
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
Biffer
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Insane_Homer wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:43 am Image

:eh: :lol: I'm sure his inbox is being inundated as we speak.
2018 - we have all these brilliant ideas for brexit
2019 - ok civil servants, we want all the brilliant ideas for brexit on our desks this month
2020 - businesses! we want to hear your brilliant ideas for brexit!
2022 - hey Sun readers, have you got any ideas for brexit?
2023 - Michael Gove returns to his netherworld form to commune with Cthulhu to find ideas for brexit
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Biffer
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Jim Lahey wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:22 am
fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:25 am Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
The DUP really have fucked this one up.

As I said in an earlier post a roadmap for a unification referendum needs laid out in the next 2 or 3 years. NI as a devolved state simply isn't working and its time to shit or get off the pot.

Let the DUP and UUP make their case for remaining part of the union, let the SDLP/Shinners make their case, let the southern parties make their case if they even want us, and what life would look like if unification were to happen, then let the people north and south decide, with a majority both north and south required for unification to happen.

Not sure what the polling data suggests in ROI but I could imagine a scenario were the north vote for a UI and the south vote against, in which case the nationalists up north need to be told to STFU for a generation and actually work within the framework to improve NI. Likewise if unification were to happen the unionist parties need to buy into the new state with "cultural provisions" to preserve their heritage blah blag blah.
Yeah, NI has a per capita GDP of €21k, Republic of Ireland is €86k. If reunification were to happen, the Republic would need to invest in NI in a similar way as West Germany did in the east. That would be tens of billions of euros a year to take on board a population, a big slab of which hates you, wishes you didn't exist, and may resort to violence against you.

I somehow don't see voters in the republic going for that. Mainly because there are massive disparities within the Republic where investment is needed, in the areas outside of Dublin.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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tabascoboy
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As an outsider the Republican movement always seems to have been predicated on the idea that the Republic would welcome their merger with open arms, but the political/economic reality seems to be very different. If they can't find a way to make Brexit work ( which to be fair we don't even seem to be able to) why expect unification to be anything other than a shitshow?
petej
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Biffer wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:18 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:43 am Image

:eh: :lol: I'm sure his inbox is being inundated as we speak.
2018 - we have all these brilliant ideas for brexit
2019 - ok civil servants, we want all the brilliant ideas for brexit on our desks this month
2020 - businesses! we want to hear your brilliant ideas for brexit!
2022 - hey Sun readers, have you got any ideas for brexit?
2023 - Michael Gove returns to his netherworld form to commune with Cthulhu to find ideas for brexit
They do not have a clue. The businesses most damaged by Brexit have mostly been smaller exporters.
Brexit truly is a victory for stupidity.
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Uncle fester
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:25 am Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
Mr. Donaldson said he remembered the former Foyle MP Mark Durkan speaking of the need "'to remove some of the ugly scaffolding' of the Good Friday Agreement".

The DUP leader said: "The sooner we get on with some of that, the better, but that does not involve negating the need for dual consent in Northern Ireland. That consent is not forthcoming from the people I represent.
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/natio ... st-3559456
The GFA is the dual consent but it's hardly a surprise seeing as the DUP never supported the agreement in the first place.
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tabascoboy
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This "Dear Jacob" one is going to run and run...wonder if he's regretting it yet

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Dear%20 ... cal=trends

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Uncle fester
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The sun god wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:30 am
redderneck wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:18 pm
The sun god wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:36 pm

yeah....great idea Sefton.
Give 'em what they want? Direct London rule. Obviate in one fell swoop any scintilla of local democratic accountability, let alone responsibility and put a kybosh on what would be seen as an irreversible slide demographically., slicing away the trappings of control and privilege they feel is their birthright.

Cement the Union for another generation, in spite of the fact that the numbers in favour of that diminish year-on-year? Feck off.

There's enough tail wagging dog going on in this world, without pandering to backwards/inwards-obsessed pricks like this.
Did I just majorly Whooooosh you there ?
Probably.
What quite a lot of people don't seem to realise is that if power-sharing is suspended and direct rule imposed, then the Anglo-Irish agreement comes into play and it's direct rule by London and Dublin.
If there's one thing unionists hate more than their nationalists, it's us Mexicans south of the border.
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fishfoodie
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Jim Lahey wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:22 am
fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:25 am Sorry, it's a bit long, but Colum Eastwood made a brilliant statement in the House, & he really skewered the arseholes in the DUP, who were whining as usual.
The DUP really have fucked this one up.

As I said in an earlier post a roadmap for a unification referendum needs laid out in the next 2 or 3 years. NI as a devolved state simply isn't working and its time to shit or get off the pot.

Let the DUP and UUP make their case for remaining part of the union, let the SDLP/Shinners make their case, let the southern parties make their case if they even want us, and what life would look like if unification were to happen, then let the people north and south decide, with a majority both north and south required for unification to happen.

Not sure what the polling data suggests in ROI but I could imagine a scenario were the north vote for a UI and the south vote against, in which case the nationalists up north need to be told to STFU for a generation and actually work within the framework to improve NI. Likewise if unification were to happen the unionist parties need to buy into the new state with "cultural provisions" to preserve their heritage blah blag blah.
I don't think anyone can seriously see a reunification ref inside of ten years; but that does give us plenty of time to discuss what reunification would look like !

The problem is that there's almost no-one from the Unionist community, who'll meet publicly, & discuss the topic, because they know they'll get abused by the dickheads.

I think NI first needs to have a referendum to setup a cross-community body, to sketch out what are peoples concerns, & then the UK & the ROI, & other interested groups, e.g. the US, the EU, the Orange Order, can make submissions on how these concerns can be addressed. By having a Referendum, you force the obstructionists in the DUP to either participate, or have reunification take form without their inputs !

If someone is asking, say; "Will my NHS pension be reduced by Reunification ?"; then the ROI might suggest that they'll pay up to the level of the equivalent position in our HSE, & the difference could be made up from the NHS pension fund; but maybe the UK says they won't contribute at all.

You get the dialog happening, & you allow politicians, & community leaders, from all parts, to ask questions, & contribute, in a safe place.

You build a body of information for any eventual Referendum, & the structure of new Nation.

You inform people, from a trusted source of Information, BEFORE THEY VOTE !

With Brexit, none of this happened & the clusterfuck was inevitable.
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Uncle fester
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Won't work.
71% of the population of NI supported the GFA but the DUP don't do respecting democratic mandates that don't align with their dinosaur-hating worldviews.
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fishfoodie
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Uncle fester wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:29 pm Won't work.
71% of the population of NI supported the GFA but the DUP don't do respecting democratic mandates that don't align with their dinosaur-hating worldviews.
Well then they'll go the way of the dinosaurs they deny ever existed :grin: :grin:

Because like the dinosaurs, there are plenty of small furry mammals ready to fill their place in the world. If the DUP don't engage, then the UUP, or TUV, or PUP will be asking the questions, & forming the Unionist position; & if none of the hardline Unionist do; then the moderate position, becomes the one represented, & that'll be the one that gets inked into a new Irish Constitution.
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Jim Lahey
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Maybe the ROI should send a clear message to NI saying that they won't entertain a UI as they can't afford it in its current state financially. Likewise the UK should limit its handouts for 10 years or so, we dont need 90 odd MLAs, no more RHI debacles, the block grant is what it is and Stormont has to use it wisely.

Therefore both sides of the divide are incentivised to sort their shit out, make compromises and work together to improve the place. Then in 10-15 years once the picture has changed, table a referendum and let the people decide which path is right.
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
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fishfoodie
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It only took ten days; but what a shock; the DUP fucked up, & their genius leaders made things worse, rather than better; who could have predicted that ?

I should offer my services to them .....
The failure to lift remaining Covid restrictions in Northern Ireland is a "complete disgrace", the head of a leading business representative organisation has said.

Belfast Chamber chief executive Simon Hamilton, a former DUP minister, blamed "instability at Stormont" for the lack of progress this week on removing regulations.

Measures like mandatory face masks in retail and on public transport and Covid passports for nightclubs are still in place.

Health Minister Robin Swann received legal advice yesterday which highlighted potential legal complications of him acting without the wider endorsement of an Executive.

He has now written to other ministers asking for their input. The current Covid-19 regulations are not due to expire until 24 March, but were previously reviewed by the Executive every three weeks.

But Northern Ireland has no functioning Executive after the DUP removed Paul Givan as First Minister as part of a protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Mr Hamilton tweeted: "It is, quite frankly, a complete disgrace that it appears, as feared, people and businesses in NI may be stuck with Covid restrictions because of instability at Stormont whilst the rest of the UK and Ireland begin to benefit from their removal."


Sinn Féin former Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill yesterday said that there was a "real prospect" Covid restrictions, such as the legal duty to wear face coverings, may have to remain in Northern Ireland.

But DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has insisted that Mr Swann has the legal authority to act and that the removal of restrictions does not need to be a collective decision.

SDLP Infrastructure Minister Nichola Mallon said the situation had arisen as a result of the "DUP boycott of Executive responsibility".

She added: "Today should have been a major milestone in our recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

"After all the sacrifices that people, families and businesses have made over the last two years, we should have been in a position to lift a significant number of the remaining legal restrictions.

"Instead, we're all locked into out-of-date restrictions because Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP continue to boycott the Executive and shirk their responsibilities to people."

Earlier today, Britain's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis said unionist parties should commit to returning to powersharing if Sinn Féin emerges as the largest party after the Stormont elections.

He said he wanted to see both unionist and nationalist parties nominate for the roles of first and deputy first minister "whatever the result" in May.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2022/021 ... and-covid/
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Jim Lahey
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You'd like to think that UUP would capitalise on this fuck up of epic proportions and clean up at the May election to become the largest unionist party again but they are also well capable of shooting themselves in the foot. Plus the TUV will probably have a good election.

I can see the DUP falling to 3rd place in the Unionist party league table, which would be terrible for unionism as a whole with the fracturing of the vote, but hilarious to see at the same time.
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
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Uncle fester
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Jim Lahey wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:41 am You'd like to think that UUP would capitalise on this fuck up of epic proportions and clean up at the May election to become the largest unionist party again but they are also well capable of shooting themselves in the foot. Plus the TUV will probably have a good election.

I can see the DUP falling to 3rd place in the Unionist party league table, which would be terrible for unionism as a whole with the fracturing of the vote, but hilarious to see at the same time.
Can't remember who wrote it but there was a good article recently about the fractures within unionism Vs the relative unity of the nationalists and the inability of unionists to win over their own people, let alone moderate nationalists.
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Hellraiser
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I've never quite understood why Simon Hamilton was ever in the DUP to begin with. Always seemed fairly pragmatic and not particularly interested in the "themmuns!" or FP nonsense of the rest of the party.
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Hellraiser
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Uncle fester wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:09 pm
Jim Lahey wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:41 am You'd like to think that UUP would capitalise on this fuck up of epic proportions and clean up at the May election to become the largest unionist party again but they are also well capable of shooting themselves in the foot. Plus the TUV will probably have a good election.

I can see the DUP falling to 3rd place in the Unionist party league table, which would be terrible for unionism as a whole with the fracturing of the vote, but hilarious to see at the same time.
Can't remember who wrote it but there was a good article recently about the fractures within unionism Vs the relative unity of the nationalists and the inability of unionists to win over their own people, let alone moderate nationalists.
Alex Kane and Susan McKay have both written about it recently.
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dpedin
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Tell me she honestly can't be this thick ... surely not, not even she can be so stupid?
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tabascoboy
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dpedin wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 10:22 am

Tell me she honestly can't be this thick ... surely not, not even she can be so stupid?
Either that or just hoping everyone else is...
I like neeps
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dpedin wrote: Thu Feb 17, 2022 10:22 am

Tell me she honestly can't be this thick ... surely not, not even she can be so stupid?
MPs mostly had no idea how the EU works... Although Elphicke should as she worked for inland revenue and a banking department for a pretty big law firm. Also set up a company which failed I noticed.

I don't understand her motivations, presumably she was asked to ask by the whips the question as Dover lorry queues are in the news. And anyone with any ambition does what they're told.
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fishfoodie
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I wonder how how many extra Hail Marys; devout Catholic, JRM will get next time he goes to Confession ?
Jacob Rees-Mogg says little evidence Brexit hit trade

Evidence that leaving the EU has damaged UK trade is "few and far between", the government's Brexit opportunities minister has said.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was handed the new role last week, said recent drops in exports had been caused by disruption during Covid.

He argued that Brexit was "already a success" and is boosting the economy.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility said there was a Brexit hit to trade with the EU.
...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60407234

I recommend this presentation for an excellent summary of the Brexit story so far.



On Page 26 of his slidedeck, there's this graph of the cost of Brexit; & it shows the lie that the damage is just down to Covid.

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_Os_
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fishfoodie wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:17 pm I don't think anyone can seriously see a reunification ref inside of ten years; but that does give us plenty of time to discuss what reunification would look like !

The problem is that there's almost no-one from the Unionist community, who'll meet publicly, & discuss the topic, because they know they'll get abused by the dickheads
As Brexit has progressed NI Unionist politics has looked more reminiscent of white SA politics in the dying days of apartheid. The big problem for Unionism is they all backed not just Brexit (UUP were Remain, but stupidly flipped to Leave), but by failing to make any choice on what form of Brexit and chasing the unicorn they backed this hard Brexit too. So all their voters know they're totally implicated in an acceleration towards the ROI, and all their voters voted for that without knowing that's what they were doing (and I expect whilst dismissing those in their own community that warned them the whole way).

The reason they will not talk about unification, is because as soon as they do, it becomes more likely. The discussion then isn't "yes" or "no", it instead becomes what to them is the surrender terms.

In SA I guess it was a bit different in that the 1983 and 1992 referendums showed there was a majority of whites which wanted constitutional change, which most at the time interpreted as ending apartheid (especially the 1992 referendum). It was hard to get this will of the majority through the party politics and the fptp electoral system SA had then though (with rigged constituencies).

But anyway, the 1987 and 1989 elections are quite telling. In 1987 there were 3m registered white voters. 1.075m voted National party (the governing party), 547k Conservative Party (an even more far-right split of the National Party) 288k Progressive Federal Party (a liberal party that opposed apartheid), and 1m didn't vote. In 1989 1.039m voted National Party, 680k Conservative Party, 431k Democratic Party (the successor to Progressive Federal party after some mergers), and 1m didn't vote. Despite the Conservative Party growing less than the Democratic Party in absolute and relative terms, the Conservative Party grew more in terms of seats in parliament (because of fptp and crooked constituencies).

The take away in all that wasn't the National Party declining a small amount, nor was it the big growth in the Conservative Party (which never mind ending apartheid, wanted to harden it), it was the growth of the Democratic Party against the odds and despite it still not being a large amount of the 3 million registered voters. In a political system where there's a big existential question, eg "should there be a united Ireland?" or "should apartheid end?", the movement tends to be away from the centre and towards the extremes. When reality hits people, the reaction of most is to double down. We've seen that with Brexit also, it was always framed as a binary question without a middle ground (the Tories have become more extreme, and the Brexit that has happened is more extreme than anything anyone originally campaigned for). So when there is any movement at all towards the centre, especially by a community that stands to lose out, then that's a huge signal. There can't really be any middle ground on "should there be a united Ireland", so when a Unionist votes Alliance they're really saying they're now okay in some shape or form with a united Ireland. If Alliance grows by a bit that's more significant than some DUP voters becoming more extreme and supporting TUV.

At the end of apartheid the National Party negotiated for the government side (which meant for the whites), they basically tried to negotiate for group rights (in other words special carve outs for whites) and failed. The Conservative Party played no role in anything really and everything further to the right (AWB), just huffed and puffed and also influenced nothing (the tiny minority who started bombing were arrested/imprisoned/killed). The problem with not being realistic and getting more extreme, is any chance to influence anything disappears. Today 90%+ of whites who vote, vote for the DA (the successor to the PFP and DP), because if there's a party that wants to improve the lives of everyone that's a better choice than a narrow interest group fighting a war that's already lost and cannot be won.

If Unionist parties were sensible they would be trying to secure pensions, some fair system for whatever happens to land (it's always about the land), equal rights based in individualism not group membership (it can be dangerous for minorities to have their minority status recognised in law, because it opens the door to discrimination decades later, this is even more true for non-visible minorities). The stuff about flags and marches will just seem like irrelevant bullshit as soon as this gets real.

I expect that instead at some point probably not long from now events will just get ahead of them, they'll find they have no influence and no friends (it'll be electoral gold dust for any American president who is involved with bringing about a united Ireland), then they'll have to hope the people they regard enemies are actually decent people.
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Jim Lahey
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 6:16 am
fishfoodie wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:17 pm I don't think anyone can seriously see a reunification ref inside of ten years; but that does give us plenty of time to discuss what reunification would look like !

The problem is that there's almost no-one from the Unionist community, who'll meet publicly, & discuss the topic, because they know they'll get abused by the dickheads
As Brexit has progressed NI Unionist politics has looked more reminiscent of white SA politics in the dying days of apartheid. The big problem for Unionism is they all backed not just Brexit (UUP were Remain, but stupidly flipped to Leave), but by failing to make any choice on what form of Brexit and chasing the unicorn they backed this hard Brexit too. So all their voters know they're totally implicated in an acceleration towards the ROI, and all their voters voted for that without knowing that's what they were doing (and I expect whilst dismissing those in their own community that warned them the whole way).

The reason they will not talk about unification, is because as soon as they do, it becomes more likely. The discussion then isn't "yes" or "no", it instead becomes what to them is the surrender terms.

In SA I guess it was a bit different in that the 1983 and 1992 referendums showed there was a majority of whites which wanted constitutional change, which most at the time interpreted as ending apartheid (especially the 1992 referendum). It was hard to get this will of the majority through the party politics and the fptp electoral system SA had then though (with rigged constituencies).

But anyway, the 1987 and 1989 elections are quite telling. In 1987 there were 3m registered white voters. 1.075m voted National party (the governing party), 547k Conservative Party (an even more far-right split of the National Party) 288k Progressive Federal Party (a liberal party that opposed apartheid), and 1m didn't vote. In 1989 1.039m voted National Party, 680k Conservative Party, 431k Democratic Party (the successor to Progressive Federal party after some mergers), and 1m didn't vote. Despite the Conservative Party growing less than the Democratic Party in absolute and relative terms, the Conservative Party grew more in terms of seats in parliament (because of fptp and crooked constituencies).

The take away in all that wasn't the National Party declining a small amount, nor was it the big growth in the Conservative Party (which never mind ending apartheid, wanted to harden it), it was the growth of the Democratic Party against the odds and despite it still not being a large amount of the 3 million registered voters. In a political system where there's a big existential question, eg "should there be a united Ireland?" or "should apartheid end?", the movement tends to be away from the centre and towards the extremes. When reality hits people, the reaction of most is to double down. We've seen that with Brexit also, it was always framed as a binary question without a middle ground (the Tories have become more extreme, and the Brexit that has happened is more extreme than anything anyone originally campaigned for). So when there is any movement at all towards the centre, especially by a community that stands to lose out, then that's a huge signal. There can't really be any middle ground on "should there be a united Ireland", so when a Unionist votes Alliance they're really saying they're now okay in some shape or form with a united Ireland. If Alliance grows by a bit that's more significant than some DUP voters becoming more extreme and supporting TUV.

At the end of apartheid the National Party negotiated for the government side (which meant for the whites), they basically tried to negotiate for group rights (in other words special carve outs for whites) and failed. The Conservative Party played no role in anything really and everything further to the right (AWB), just huffed and puffed and also influenced nothing (the tiny minority who started bombing were arrested/imprisoned/killed). The problem with not being realistic and getting more extreme, is any chance to influence anything disappears. Today 90%+ of whites who vote, vote for the DA (the successor to the PFP and DP), because if there's a party that wants to improve the lives of everyone that's a better choice than a narrow interest group fighting a war that's already lost and cannot be won.

If Unionist parties were sensible they would be trying to secure pensions, some fair system for whatever happens to land (it's always about the land), equal rights based in individualism not group membership (it can be dangerous for minorities to have their minority status recognised in law, because it opens the door to discrimination decades later, this is even more true for non-visible minorities). The stuff about flags and marches will just seem like irrelevant bullshit as soon as this gets real.

I expect that instead at some point probably not long from now events will just get ahead of them, they'll find they have no influence and no friends (it'll be electoral gold dust for any American president who is involved with bringing about a united Ireland), then they'll have to hope the people they regard enemies are actually decent people.
Good comparison :thumbup:

Probably similar to the hardline SA whites in the 80s/90s, the Unionists here cannot fathom the potential for a UI. They just dismiss it outright without consideration, thinking that it is 1912 rather than 2022. Demographics have changed radically in the interim. There are a hell of a lot of mixed marriages. Young people from the greater Belfast area (typically unionist backgrounds) go to uni in England and Scotland when they are 18, and many don't return while those of rural backgrounds (typically catholics) move to Belfast for work.

Until the unionist parties pull their heads out of the sand and start considering that a unification MAY happen (it will imo) and start influencing HOW it will happen, the pressure gauge will keep going higher until the point that they lose all credibility and are unable to get a good deal for people of a unionist background in the new state, which sounds similar to what happened to the white parties in SA.

I'm in my 30s from mixed parents with a foreign wife and mixed-race kids. The constitutional question has little value to me. It places traditions and culture on a higher pedestal than jobs, services and infrastructure which pisses me right off. Ultimately if I had to chose I'd probably prefer to remain part of the UK but I am very open to a UI if it means a better standard of living for my kids. I think there is a huge amount of people from a unionist background in the same position as me.
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
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Uncle fester
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Jim
In my experience, there's three groups rather than just two in NI. You have 1. middle class unionists like yourself (small U deliberate), 2. working class Protestants who would fall under the banner of "Loyalist" and 3. Catholics/Nationalists/nationalists who despite their differing social groupings tend to be pretty unified when it comes to working towards "big picture" common goals.

Group 2 have been totally left behind by progress and they are pissed, justifiably so to my mind. Group 1 have more in common with a good chunk of group 3 than they do their fellow Protestants in group 2.
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Jim Lahey
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Uncle fester wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:42 am Jim
In my experience, there's three groups rather than just two in NI. You have 1. middle class unionists like yourself (small U deliberate), 2. working class Protestants who would fall under the banner of "Loyalist" and 3. Catholics/Nationalists/nationalists who despite their differing social groupings tend to be pretty unified when it comes to working towards "big picture" common goals.

Group 2 have been totally left behind by progress and they are pissed, justifiably so to my mind. Group 1 have more in common with a good chunk of group 3 than they do their fellow Protestants in group 2.
I would agree, especially with the loss of manufacturing jobs which would have been Group 2's foundation, although the constitutional issue hasn't impacted that to a large degree (most of the remaining big manufacturers haven't been hit by Brexit, yet). A united Ireland or remaining part of the UK won't change this.

The Unionist parties have largely neglected the needs Group 2 by not encouraging training in new skills or pushing for UK support to encourage FDI (they have in IT but that doesn't help the working classes).
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
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fishfoodie
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Jim Lahey wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:12 pm
Uncle fester wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:42 am Jim
In my experience, there's three groups rather than just two in NI. You have 1. middle class unionists like yourself (small U deliberate), 2. working class Protestants who would fall under the banner of "Loyalist" and 3. Catholics/Nationalists/nationalists who despite their differing social groupings tend to be pretty unified when it comes to working towards "big picture" common goals.

Group 2 have been totally left behind by progress and they are pissed, justifiably so to my mind. Group 1 have more in common with a good chunk of group 3 than they do their fellow Protestants in group 2.
I would agree, especially with the loss of manufacturing jobs which would have been Group 2's foundation, although the constitutional issue hasn't impacted that to a large degree (most of the remaining big manufacturers haven't been hit by Brexit, yet). A united Ireland or remaining part of the UK won't change this.

The Unionist parties have largely neglected the needs Group 2 by not encouraging training in new skills or pushing for UK support to encourage FDI (they have in IT but that doesn't help the working classes).
I haven't seen the data, but my perception has been that, if you took two equivalent working class groups, from Nationalist, & Loyalist backgrounds, there's much higher expectation of having a 3rd level education on the Nationalist side ?

I can't remember working with any grads from Group 2, but I've worked with plenty from Group 1.

They've been very poorly served by the Politicians who claim to represent them; but spend more time pissing about with flags & bonfires; rather than making sure their kids get the best possible opportunities.
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redderneck
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Uncle fester wrote: Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:42 am Jim
In my experience, there's three groups rather than just two in NI. You have 1. middle class unionists like yourself (small U deliberate), 2. working class Protestants who would fall under the banner of "Loyalist" and 3. Catholics/Nationalists/nationalists who despite their differing social groupings tend to be pretty unified when it comes to working towards "big picture" common goals.

Group 2 have been totally left behind by progress and they are pissed, justifiably so to my mind. Group 1 have more in common with a good chunk of group 3 than they do their fellow Protestants in group 2.
Acknowledging that - and I'm in broad agreement with you - how the hell do you get past it? What does that look like? Who does that look like?
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