So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

Covid being over has worked out well?

https://www.ft.com/content/5f1f3233-bf0 ... ae036b0dee

[Ymx]

Behind a paywall for me. Can you post article.

Thanks

[dpedin]

I clicked on this twitter link and got access - try this and see.

[petej]

I clicked on this twitter link and got access - try this and see.

Not actually a bad thing if workers aren't coming in because they are ill. Used to piss me off when colleagues came in when they were clearly ill.

[dpedin]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

[Grandpa]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

[dpedin]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

[Grandpa]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

Be interesting to know how close to capacity we are getting... the govt will hate it if we need to bring in restrictions again. Or is it just we all need a 4th jab?

[Margin__Walker]

There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

[Ymx]

Excess deaths is looking fine

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... IsImMiOjh9

As in its negative at present

[dpedin]

There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

[Wrinkles]

Excess deaths is looking fine

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... IsImMiOjh9

As in its negative at present

Interestingly, although the UK Covid on death certificate figure for the whole pandemic is 13% higher than the 28 day metric (190k v 166k), the figure for this year is 27% lower (13k v 17.5k), which suggests far more are now dying ‘with’ rather than ‘of’ Covid.

[dpedin]

UK excess deaths for week ending 25th March were 453 over the 5 year average. Time lag from current wave of omicron BA.2

[petej]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

At some point you stop isolating patients with COVID from other patients.

[Ymx]

At the height of the pandemic excess deaths appear to have been 10,000 above.

400 above is insignificant noise. It is about the same height as the tiny right-most bar on the chart I posted above (which was -300 for w/e 18/3)

[Margin__Walker]

There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

[Kiwias]

This could possibly deserve its own thread but it is coronavirus-related to here goes.

Dr. Bloomfield, the main architect of NZ's covid-19 response, announced his retirement.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics ... ealth.html

He has done an absolutely superb job in a totally thankless position, knowing that each and every one of his decisions and calls will be criticised, usually with the massive benefit of hindsight. He remained calm and positive, even in the roughest times of the pandemic, and continued to offer timely and clear advice and instructions to the public.

Thank you, kind doctor, and enjoy your retirement.

[Wrinkles]

Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

To put this into context, in 2020-21 there were 12.8 million admissions to hospital in the UK (down from just over 17 million in the previous two years). If you take the lower 12.8 million figure, that works out at a touch under a quarter of a million people per week. Divide that by 20,398 and you get around 1:12 people who are admitted to hospital testing positive for Covid - very close to the 1:13 estimated to have it at the moment. Given only 351 patients are currently in ventilated beds (slightly down on a week ago, up 40% in a month but down 60% since the turn of the year), then I’m not sure there’s cause for alarm.

[petej]

To put in context how the world has lost its collective mind, and probably what happens when you allow the science wonk Jeff Goldblums from Independance Day actually get control, in Shanghai they currently have 16k cases a day. That's in a population of nearly 30 million. Public health dude: 'Its extremely grim'. No it is not you massive massive spoofer. Though I suppose locking a load of people into a convention centre on camp beds is fairly fucked up alright

The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

[dpedin]

There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

[dpedin]

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

At some point you stop isolating patients with COVID from other patients.

All patients or just some - mix covid with COPD patients, asthma patients, cancer patients, diabetic patients, cardiac patients, transplant patients? This is medically insane!

[dpedin]

To put in context how the world has lost its collective mind, and probably what happens when you allow the science wonk Jeff Goldblums from Independance Day actually get control, in Shanghai they currently have 16k cases a day. That's in a population of nearly 30 million. Public health dude: 'Its extremely grim'. No it is not you massive massive spoofer. Though I suppose locking a load of people into a convention centre on camp beds is fairly fucked up alright

The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

Energise - have you just woken up after a 2 year sleep?

I am not sure the Chinese would take the economic hit if they were not worried about the consequences of the recent outbreak in Shanghai. It is hard to believe the Chinese Gov is full of 'woke, lefty snowflake scientific wonks' willing to shut down a city of c30m just because of a harmless virus. They will have done the risk analysis and worked out this is the preferred option to whatever variant is taking hold in an under vaccinated population in a major commercial city and obviously spreading across the whole country. Omicron BA2 has a R of about 12 so I will let you do the sums to work out how quickly 16,000 cases becomes a major problem - clue it isn't very long at all.

Current estimates is covid has an IFR of 6 times that of flu which is bad. However the R number of flu is probably around 2, omicron BA2 is around 12 which means you are far more likely to contract covid than you are flu when both are circulating in a community. What does this mean for a real life IFR of covid - there is probably a 30+ times more likely chance of dying with covid than with flu. Think of the old H&S risk assessment matrix of likelihood x consequences the Chinese have worked out they are in the red zone.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status ... 7032763394

[Margin__Walker]

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

The trends were correct to the week to 26 March.

The case number data now shows a rapid week on week decrease in positive cases as at yesterday. I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

[dpedin]

The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

Energise - have you just woken up after a 2 year sleep?

I am not sure the Chinese would take the economic hit if they were not worried about the consequences of the recent outbreak in Shanghai. It is hard to believe the Chinese Gov is full of 'woke, lefty snowflake scientific wonks' willing to shut down a city of c30m just because of a harmless virus. They will have done the risk analysis and worked out this is the preferred option to whatever variant is taking hold in an under vaccinated population in a major commercial city and obviously spreading across the whole country. Omicron BA2 has a R of about 12 so I will let you do the sums to work out how quickly 16,000 cases becomes a major problem - clue it isn't very long at all.

Current estimates is covid has an IFR of 6 times that of flu which is bad. However the R number of flu is probably around 2, omicron BA2 is around 12 which means you are far more likely to contract covid than you are flu when both are circulating in a community. What does this mean for a real life IFR of covid - there is probably a 30+ times more likely chance of dying with covid than with flu. Think of the old H&S risk assessment matrix of likelihood x consequences the Chinese have worked out they are in the red zone.

.

Chinese aren't to be trusted. They are on my list with yanks and Kiwis and Western Australians and maths

That explains it.

[dpedin]

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

The trends were correct to the week to 26 March.

The case number data now shows a rapid week on week decrease in positive cases as at yesterday. I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

It has!

Problem is access to testing is now more difficult - many folk have to pay for a LFT in England now, most free testing sites have now closed, and many aren't buying LFTs or if they are aren't sending in their LFT tests online. Also messaging from Govs is essentially covid is over or it is nothing more than a mild flu so don't worry. Despite ONS study suggesting 1 in 12 in Scotland had covid the number of tests carried out last week dropped by 20%, in England the number of tests reported has dropped by almost 50% in recent weeks despite ONS study showing number of cases has gone up. The case info is interesting but isn't useful for monitoring trends or comparisons now - the data is too muddled and comparing like for like.

[JM2K6]

I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

[Margin__Walker]

It has!

Problem is access to testing is now more difficult - many folk have to pay for a LFT in England now, most free testing sites have now closed, and many aren't buying LFTs or if they are aren't sending in their LFT tests online. Also messaging from Govs is essentially covid is over or it is nothing more than a mild flu so don't worry. Despite ONS study suggesting 1 in 12 in Scotland had covid the number of tests carried out last week dropped by 20%, in England the number of tests reported has dropped by almost 50% in recent weeks despite ONS study showing number of cases has gone up. The case info is interesting but isn't useful for monitoring trends or comparisons now - the data is too muddled and comparing like for like.

I'll tell you what. Let's wait a week or two until the ONS data for this week.

Will be happy to admit to being wrong if the figures then continue to show the same upward trend for this week.

[Grandpa]

I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

And it wasn't an April Fools... and it would have a dramatic effect on testing numbers one would think.

[Margin__Walker]

I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

And it wasn't an April Fools... and it would have a dramatic effect on testing numbers one would think.

Fair point JM, but the week on week daily case numbers were already declining prior in the week up to 1 April when the previous provision was in place.

[Calculon]

The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

Energise - have you just woken up after a 2 year sleep?

I am not sure the Chinese would take the economic hit if they were not worried about the consequences of the recent outbreak in Shanghai. It is hard to believe the Chinese Gov is full of 'woke, lefty snowflake scientific wonks' willing to shut down a city of c30m just because of a harmless virus. They will have done the risk analysis and worked out this is the preferred option to whatever variant is taking hold in an under vaccinated population in a major commercial city and obviously spreading across the whole country. Omicron BA2 has a R of about 12 so I will let you do the sums to work out how quickly 16,000 cases becomes a major problem - clue it isn't very long at all.

Current estimates is covid has an IFR of 6 times that of flu which is bad. However the R number of flu is probably around 2, omicron BA2 is around 12 which means you are far more likely to contract covid than you are flu when both are circulating in a community. What does this mean for a real life IFR of covid - there is probably a 30+ times more likely chance of dying with covid than with flu. Think of the old H&S risk assessment matrix of likelihood x consequences the Chinese have worked out they are in the red zone.

.

Chinese aren't to be trusted. They are on my list with yanks and Kiwis and Western Australians and maths

I've mentioned it before on this thread but it’s a political decision for the CCP. They’ve been trumpeting their zero COVID strategy for the last two years and contrasting how effective it is against the decadent West’s policy of living with the virus. There’s been so much propaganda that a lot of Chinese think that getting COVID is pretty much a death sentence. It’s only now starting to change, with the Chinese government struggling to contain the latest outbreaks and most people testing positive actually having mild symptoms or being asymptomatic.

[Calculon]

You can buy FFP2 or FFP3 masks on Amazon - there are lots of shapes and designs - have a look. They are more comfortable to wear than surgical masks and fit better around the nose and moth. They are more expensive that surgical masks. Both give over 90% filtration rates - FFP3 highest. They are very common in number of industries ie building trade and are recommended by HSE in UK for lots of jobs which generate dust/particles, etc. If I was in a job in an enclosed area and/or with lots of people contact I would recommend using these. Research shows far lower levels of transmission when these are used.

The clever thing about these masks is that the filter materials are electrostatically charged so they attract particles/viruses and prevent them feeding through to be inhaled.

thanks, interesting about the charge but no amazon where I live so will have to take my chances

[petej]

I've mentioned it before on this thread but it’s a political decision for the CCP. They’ve been trumpeting their zero COVID strategy for the last two years and contrasting how effective it is against the decadent West’s policy of living with the virus. There’s been so much propaganda that a lot of Chinese think that getting COVID is pretty much a death sentence. It’s only now starting to change, with the Chinese government struggling to contain the latest outbreaks and most people testing positive actually having mild symptoms or being asymptomatic.

Good post.

[petej]

The IFR is obviously dependent on multitude of variables for example population age, levels of immunity in the population from prior vaccination and infection and COVID variant and flu variant and levels of immunity to flu.

Testing will drift down gradually in the UK while free tests are no longer available lots will have spare lft's.

[JM2K6]

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

And it wasn't an April Fools... and it would have a dramatic effect on testing numbers one would think.

Fair point JM, but the week on week daily case numbers were already declining prior in the week up to 1 April when the previous provision was in place.

Yes, I agree. And your "let's wait and see what things look like in a couple of weeks" is basically the only way any of us can have any certainty on this. I just don't think it's wise to discount the impact of not only the April 1st change. It makes comparing apples to apples very difficult right now.

[Ymx]

Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

[petej]

Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

[JM2K6]

Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

And you have to be very careful with that anyway. If they're in hospital because something they have is made a lot worse by Covid, do you think that's with or for?

[petej]

Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

And you have to be very careful with that anyway. If they're in hospital because something they have is made a lot worse by Covid, do you think that's with or for?

Yep. Life's messy.

[MungoMan]

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

And you have to be very careful with that anyway. If they're in hospital because something they have is made a lot worse by Covid, do you think that's with or for?

Yep. Life's messy.

One of the messy bits is the language used in describing covid-related deaths. Here in Australia, 'with COVID-19' refers to those who died of other causes (e.g. cancer) but who were covid-positive at the time of death; that is, covid was not noted was not the underlying cause of death on the death certificate.

The most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report on Australian COVID-19 mortality covered those covid deaths occurring by 28 February 2022 that have been registered and received by the ABS.

Of the 4,427 deaths where people died from or with covid, 4,094 had covid registered as the underlying cause ('from COVID-19) and 333 died of other causes while covid-positive ('with COVID-19').