So, coronavirus...

[Calculon]

.The longer covid is circulating then the greater the chance of further variants emerging and the greater the chance of vaccine escape. Like it or not we are in this for the long term and need to get used to behaving differently, otherwise we will end up with ongoing/periodic disruption to travel, schooling, NHS, business, etc as more waves hit us. There is no scientific evidence that covid will get milder, the next variant could be more severe.

This is a pet peeve of mine but covid, or more correctly COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes the disease. Anyway SARS-CoV-2 is going to be in circulation for a very long time and there's nothing we can do that will change that. The Dutch had a lockdown during the start of the Omicron wave, didn't seem to stop circulation at all. Shanghai is currently having a severe lockdown, doesn't appear to stop circulation.

[convoluted]

Re. the above mention of immunity issues caused by lockdown reducing interaction with others:
50 odd years ago, it was noticed that NZers returning home from long stints in Antarctica promptly fell ill with just about everything going --- Antarctica's sterility had rendered their immune systems ineffective against even the most banal of things floating around in the air.

Shortly afterwards, zooming through Bangkok's canals on a private speedboat, I noted with some horror that the early morning ablutions of the waterside residents included brushing of teeth in the apparently filthy canals. Seemingly the local folk had built resistance since infancy and, on the outside at least, they looked in perfect health and beauty.
...... ......
This has just popped up: (kind of giving credence to what the Parliamentary protestors were carrying on about)

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national ... 45feab1349

[mat the expat]

Re. the above mention of immunity issues caused by lockdown reducing interaction with others: Seemingly the local folk had built resistance since infancy and, on the outside at least, they looked in perfect health and beauty.

Ignoring the many serious diseases killing people there due to poor sanitation that you don't see on your tour

[dpedin]

Indeed DP. As our 98.8% antibodies wane we really need to ensure our immune systems keep up. Covid remaining in circulation should help with that. Although I’m fairly sure that will happen as it has in the past, irrespective of ph.

The 98.8% also shows why the long covid boat has sailed long ago. I could be wrong, but I assume long covid if it happens, arises most significantly from first and most severe infection. But have failed to find studies to show this. A tiny percent get long covid, and I expect a tiny percent of those who have long covid get long covid from a secondary infection when they haven’t had it from the first infection. This is speculation on my part I admit.

Also, I might have been baiting you a tiny with the “job done” quote. Some days you get the bait just right.

Natural infection from covid provides a weaker protection than vaccination so annual vaccinations are probably best option. Allowing covid to freely circulate to keep immune system up will lead to continuous disruption as there will always be a percentage off ill with covid symptoms plus there remains a risk of new variants causing greater illness in some people/groups. The omicron variant has led to a significant increase in hospitalisation of young children for example. Best option to minimise risk is to maintain vaccinations with regular boosters including children.

I am not sure what highly infectious diseases that we have allowed to run wild without using PH measures to try and control community transmission? Is this not why we vaccinate kids against measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, flu, tetanus,diptheria, polio, meningitis, HPV, etc and adults against shingles, meningitis, etc. It's why we get vaccinated against a range of transmissible diseases such as hepatitis, cholera, rabies, yellow fever, etc when going abroad to certain countries.

ONS suggest between 3% and 12% have long covid 12 weeks post initial infection, 7% to 18% who were symptomatic. So not a tiny percentage.

I'm not sure your assumptions are correct? See https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o378 for risk of cardiac issues even after mild case of covid although there is a relationship between more severe cases and cardiac issues. However even mild cases of covid present a risk. I think the jury is still out about the risk of long covid from reinfections, I think it reduces it but not sufficiently given the large numbers of people being infected with Omicron. A small % of a very large number is still a very large number!

I'm just at a loose end waiting to go out and play golf so it kept me occupied for a wee while over a coffee. Tee time at 2pm.

I’m pleased we could assist in biding your time. Were you sitting in a well ventilated car whilst your golf buddies having lunch at the club house?

As I said 98.8% the horse has bolted. Long covid will be what it is.

I don’t see any huge disruption any more at our work. Just the odd person off work occasionally. 1/13 and naturally dropping off. Because it’s not treated any differently from other illnesses, it’s not actually affecting our office.

I expect we will all come in to contact multiple times a year from here on in, and immunity unlikely to wane enough to become an issue. Most already triple vaccinated and exposed to it.

Annual vaccinations for the elderly, prone, would no doubt be advisable, as per flu vaccinations.

As for comparisons to other illnesses. Swine flu was one such infection we allow to freely circulate. It’s still around.

As for the others, the vaccination rates are very comparable to covid.

Hope you had a good round, btw. Nice day down here in Southeast, hope the same where you are.

No lunch, golf was excellent, nice sunny day and courses are now looking good plus a nice refreshing beer afterwards. Lads send their regards.

'Long covid will be what it is' .... what? Given the numbers involved plus we know covid can increase the risk substantially for a range cardiac, neurological and pulmonary embolisms, it presents a major risk. The presence of antibodies does not unfortunately guarantee prevention of future infection from new variants and risk of long covid despite what some folk would like to think. Vaccines do however reduce the risk.

Pandemics involve cyclical peaks of infection, we have had 3 or 4 peaks so far depending how you count them. I am sure every time a peak started tailing off a few thought that was the end of it, covid was finished and we can get back to normal ... until the next peak happened. There is no scientific basis to suggest the next variant will be less severe - or more severe, we just don't know!

Vaccines are not 100% effective, current vaccines are about 80% effective, and do wane sufficiently for folk to become infected and get hospitalised, hence need for boosters. Natural immunity via infection provides poor protection compared with vaccination. I suspect we will be vaccinating large numbers of adults and children on an annual basis for foreseeable future. Kids will be vaccinated as part of their regular vaccination programme in early years. However the scientists are working on new vaccines and they may develop one that provides life long immunity which will be a game changer. I hear this is a distinct possibility this year or next.

Swine flu - not a novel virus but a variation on existing flu virus, in this case H1N1, spread in 2009 - the 'Catch it, Bin it, Kill it flu'. After a bit of a panic it was found that many older adults already had effective immunity to swine flu and others had sufficient to protect against severe cases, kids were most at risk as they hadn't developed immunity. Vaccines were developed and now annual flu jabs are effective against it, many vulnerable folk are vaccinated each year. PH protections worked well.

[Calculon]

Pandemics involve cyclical peaks of infection, we have had 3 or 4 peaks so far depending how you count them. I am sure every time a peak started tailing off a few thought that was the end of it, covid was finished and we can get back to normal ... until the next peak happened.

Just like the flu and the common cold then, which are mostly seasonal, we will likely get and accept as normal cyclical peaks of infection with sars cov 2

There is no scientific basis to suggest the next variant will be less severe - or more severe, we just don't know!

Whatever the next variant it is likely that some level of immunity will be retained against it by most people, so the effective impact of it is also very unlikely to be on par with the original variant. Also, we have more efficacious drugs and treatments.


Natural immunity via infection provides poor protection compared with vaccination.

There are far too many variables to make such a blanket statement. In many instances infection acquired immunity will give better protection. The largest study at the time (maybe still is) , an Israeli one, showed just this with regards to the Delta variant. Obviously taking the vaccine is safer.

[petej]

Re. the above mention of immunity issues caused by lockdown reducing interaction with others:
50 odd years ago, it was noticed that NZers returning home from long stints in Antarctica promptly fell ill with just about everything going --- Antarctica's sterility had rendered their immune systems ineffective against even the most banal of things floating around in the air.

Shortly afterwards, zooming through Bangkok's canals on a private speedboat, I noted with some horror that the early morning ablutions of the waterside residents included brushing of teeth in the apparently filthy canals. Seemingly the local folk had built resistance since infancy and, on the outside at least, they looked in perfect health and beauty.
...... ......
This has just popped up: (kind of giving credence to what the Parliamentary protestors were carrying on about)

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national ... 45feab1349

That was inevitable. Jacinda was completely caught up in the whole best covider in the world and risk parameters weren't rationale anymore. Fuck I would be pissed if I was a Kiwi though

To be fair the transition out of zero COVID was always going to tricky. They could have been faster to transition out of zero COVID. In terms of minimising the overall harms of COVID NZ has done well. The cautious transition out matches the cautious approach Jacinda has taken to the pandemic.

[dpedin]

Pandemics involve cyclical peaks of infection, we have had 3 or 4 peaks so far depending how you count them. I am sure every time a peak started tailing off a few thought that was the end of it, covid was finished and we can get back to normal ... until the next peak happened.

Just like the flu and the common cold then, which are mostly seasonal, we will likely get and accept as normal cyclical peaks of infection with sars cov 2

There is no scientific basis to suggest the next variant will be less severe - or more severe, we just don't know!

Whatever the next variant it is likely that some level of immunity will be retained against it by most people, so the effective impact of it is also very unlikely to be on par with the original variant. Also, we have more efficacious drugs and treatments.


Natural immunity via infection provides poor protection compared with vaccination.

There are far too many variables to make such a blanket statement. In many instances infection acquired immunity will give better protection. The largest study at the time (maybe still is) , an Israeli one, showed just this with regards to the Delta variant. Obviously taking the vaccine is safer.

I said cyclical and not seasonal but the reality is most peaks will occur when folk mingle more closer together indoors and therefore increases community transmission. It is a respiratory virus transmissible via aerosol so in that respect spreads very similar to colds and flu. Main difference however is the current variant omicron BA.2 has a RO many times in excess of colds and flu , as I noted earlier, and is therefore considerably more transmissible. Also I am not sure that either colds or flu, although have dangerous side effects in their own rights, cause the vascular type side effects we have seen with covid for example?

Agree and hope that the current vaccines will provide protection and that medical care, drugs etc are far more efficacious. However we do have c14 million in this country unvaccinated through either choice or ineligibility. Given reinfection rates of omicron, see below, then perhaps it is safer to get vaccinated?

Perhaps I would have been more accurate to say that natural infection plus full vaccination provides very strong immunity against Delta but either provide high levels of protection against Delta. However the problem is that the current Omicron variant has an reinfection rate of over 10%, Imperial college suggests that the chance of reinfection with omicron BA.2 is over 5x that of Delta. they say:

Controlling for vaccine status, age, sex, ethnicity, asymptomatic status, region and specimen date, Omicron was associated with a 5.40 (95% CI: 4.38-6.63) fold higher risk of reinfection compared with Delta. To put this into context, in the pre-Omicron era, the UK “SIREN” study of COVID infection in healthcare workers estimated that prior infection afforded 85% protection against a second COVID infection over 6 months. The reinfection risk estimated in the current study suggests this protection has fallen to 19% (95%CI: 0-27%) against an Omicron infection.

Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron - The researchers found a significantly increased risk of developing a symptomatic Omicron case compared to Delta for those who were two or more weeks past their second vaccine dose, and two or more weeks past their booster dose (for AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines). Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.

[dpedin]

@dpedin : Thanks for all your efforts, you’ve been very informative (and patient) and right on the money.

Cheers - its all just a bit of fun!

[Calculon]

Pandemics involve cyclical peaks of infection, we have had 3 or 4 peaks so far depending how you count them. I am sure every time a peak started tailing off a few thought that was the end of it, covid was finished and we can get back to normal ... until the next peak happened.

Just like the flu and the common cold then, which are mostly seasonal, we will likely get and accept as normal cyclical peaks of infection with sars cov 2

There is no scientific basis to suggest the next variant will be less severe - or more severe, we just don't know!

Whatever the next variant it is likely that some level of immunity will be retained against it by most people, so the effective impact of it is also very unlikely to be on par with the original variant. Also, we have more efficacious drugs and treatments.


Natural immunity via infection provides poor protection compared with vaccination.

There are far too many variables to make such a blanket statement. In many instances infection acquired immunity will give better protection. The largest study at the time (maybe still is) , an Israeli one, showed just this with regards to the Delta variant. Obviously taking the vaccine is safer.

I said cyclical and not seasonal but the reality is most peaks will occur when folk mingle more closer together indoors and therefore increases community transmission. It is a respiratory virus transmissible via aerosol so in that respect spreads very similar to colds and flu. Main difference however is the current variant omicron BA.2 has a RO many times in excess of colds and flu , as I noted earlier, and is therefore considerably more transmissible. Also I am not sure that either colds or flu, although have dangerous side effects in their own rights, cause the vascular type side effects we have seen with covid for example?

Flu is cyclical and seasonal and can most certainly cause vascular side effect like a cardiac event. In fact, it is a major risk factor.

[Biffer]

I said cyclical and not seasonal but the reality is most peaks will occur when folk mingle more closer together indoors and therefore increases community transmission. It is a respiratory virus transmissible via aerosol so in that respect spreads very similar to colds and flu. Main difference however is the current variant omicron BA.2 has a RO many times in excess of colds and flu , as I noted earlier, and is therefore considerably more transmissible. Also I am not sure that either colds or flu, although have dangerous side effects in their own rights, cause the vascular type side effects we have seen with covid for example?

Flu is cyclical and seasonal and can most certainly cause vascular side effect like a cardiac event. In fact, it is a major risk factor.

Also Coronavirus NL63 is suspected of being linked to childhood cardiac problems.

[dpedin]

I said cyclical and not seasonal but the reality is most peaks will occur when folk mingle more closer together indoors and therefore increases community transmission. It is a respiratory virus transmissible via aerosol so in that respect spreads very similar to colds and flu. Main difference however is the current variant omicron BA.2 has a RO many times in excess of colds and flu , as I noted earlier, and is therefore considerably more transmissible. Also I am not sure that either colds or flu, although have dangerous side effects in their own rights, cause the vascular type side effects we have seen with covid for example?

Flu is cyclical and seasonal and can most certainly cause vascular side effect like a cardiac event. In fact, it is a major risk factor.

You are correct and I suppose I need to be more precise in my comments. It is a matter of degree of risk. Covid has a far higher mortality compared with flu, a significantly higher incidence of adverse outcomes, markedly higher risk of hospitalisation and admission to ICU. Frequency of vascular issues ie thrombosis, PE, etc is markedly higher in covid patients compared to flu. However if I did have an existing cardiovascular condition I would whatever I could to avoid both flu and covid!

[petej]

I said cyclical and not seasonal but the reality is most peaks will occur when folk mingle more closer together indoors and therefore increases community transmission. It is a respiratory virus transmissible via aerosol so in that respect spreads very similar to colds and flu. Main difference however is the current variant omicron BA.2 has a RO many times in excess of colds and flu , as I noted earlier, and is therefore considerably more transmissible. Also I am not sure that either colds or flu, although have dangerous side effects in their own rights, cause the vascular type side effects we have seen with covid for example?

Flu is cyclical and seasonal and can most certainly cause vascular side effect like a cardiac event. In fact, it is a major risk factor.

You are correct and I suppose I need to be more precise in my comments. It is a matter of degree of risk. Covid has a far higher mortality compared with flu, a significantly higher incidence of adverse outcomes, markedly higher risk of hospitalisation and admission to ICU. Frequency of vascular issues ie thrombosis, PE, etc is markedly higher in covid patients compared to flu. However if I did have an existing cardiovascular condition I would whatever I could to avoid both flu and covid!

You do need to be very precise. For bolded section I don't think you are being precise. This will vary by variant of flu and variant of SARS-CoV-2, vaccine/immunity levels, the timeframe in the pandemic you taking these numbers from and the geographic location, the age of the patients (I'm not sure if flu has the same pattern as COVID-19 across the age ranges) etc..... I wouldn't be confident in any of that bolded statement in the UK at this time. I would have a high confidence in it from the beginning of the pandemic through to when most of the population had been vaccinated.

[dpedin]

Flu is cyclical and seasonal and can most certainly cause vascular side effect like a cardiac event. In fact, it is a major risk factor.

You are correct and I suppose I need to be more precise in my comments. It is a matter of degree of risk. Covid has a far higher mortality compared with flu, a significantly higher incidence of adverse outcomes, markedly higher risk of hospitalisation and admission to ICU. Frequency of vascular issues ie thrombosis, PE, etc is markedly higher in covid patients compared to flu. However if I did have an existing cardiovascular condition I would whatever I could to avoid both flu and covid!

You do need to be very precise. For bolded section I don't think you are being precise. This will vary by variant of flu and variant of SARS-CoV-2, vaccine/immunity levels, the timeframe in the pandemic you taking these numbers from and the geographic location, the age of the patients (I'm not sure if flu has the same pattern as COVID-19 across the age ranges) etc..... I wouldn't be confident in any of that bolded statement in the UK at this time. I would have a high confidence in it from the beginning of the pandemic through to when most of the population had been vaccinated.

Whilst I hear your comments the bold bit is 100% accurate for the UK at this time. Most of the population had been vaccinated - for flu or covid or both? The majority of those most susceptible to flu ie >65, got flu and booster at same time. Flu vaccine uptake in >65 in England for 2021 was over 80%, one of the highest in Europe, in school kids it was mid 60%. Sadly we were late to giving kids the covid vaccine and uptake is lower and slower than we would have hoped, and certainly a lot lower than the flu uptake.

[Biffer]

You are correct and I suppose I need to be more precise in my comments. It is a matter of degree of risk. Covid has a far higher mortality compared with flu, a significantly higher incidence of adverse outcomes, markedly higher risk of hospitalisation and admission to ICU. Frequency of vascular issues ie thrombosis, PE, etc is markedly higher in covid patients compared to flu. However if I did have an existing cardiovascular condition I would whatever I could to avoid both flu and covid!

You do need to be very precise. For bolded section I don't think you are being precise. This will vary by variant of flu and variant of SARS-CoV-2, vaccine/immunity levels, the timeframe in the pandemic you taking these numbers from and the geographic location, the age of the patients (I'm not sure if flu has the same pattern as COVID-19 across the age ranges) etc..... I wouldn't be confident in any of that bolded statement in the UK at this time. I would have a high confidence in it from the beginning of the pandemic through to when most of the population had been vaccinated.

Whilst I hear your comments the bold bit is 100% accurate for the UK at this time. Most of the population had been vaccinated - for flu or covid or both? The majority of those most susceptible to flu ie >65, got flu and booster at same time. Flu vaccine uptake in >65 in England for 2021 was over 80%, one of the highest in Europe, in school kids it was mid 60%. Sadly we were late to giving kids the covid vaccine and uptake is lower and slower than we would have hoped, and certainly a lot lower than the flu uptake.

Flu vaccine efficacy this year was pretty terrible I hear.

[dpedin]

You do need to be very precise. For bolded section I don't think you are being precise. This will vary by variant of flu and variant of SARS-CoV-2, vaccine/immunity levels, the timeframe in the pandemic you taking these numbers from and the geographic location, the age of the patients (I'm not sure if flu has the same pattern as COVID-19 across the age ranges) etc..... I wouldn't be confident in any of that bolded statement in the UK at this time. I would have a high confidence in it from the beginning of the pandemic through to when most of the population had been vaccinated.

Whilst I hear your comments the bold bit is 100% accurate for the UK at this time. Most of the population had been vaccinated - for flu or covid or both? The majority of those most susceptible to flu ie >65, got flu and booster at same time. Flu vaccine uptake in >65 in England for 2021 was over 80%, one of the highest in Europe, in school kids it was mid 60%. Sadly we were late to giving kids the covid vaccine and uptake is lower and slower than we would have hoped, and certainly a lot lower than the flu uptake.

Flu vaccine efficacy this year was pretty terrible I hear.

Yeh - it can be difficult to match the vaccine to the dominant flu strain far enough in advance to allow production and administration. It hasn't been too effective at preventing mild and moderate illness but has been pretty successful in preventing serious/severe illness in folks so still been worthwhile.

[Ymx]

Yep, as predicted, the BA2 spike has passed.

No emergency lockdowns needed. But I guess the ICU levels kind of suggested that any way.

Job done

Covid infections in record drop of nearly one million, says ONS

29 April 2022
Women wearing masks in London
IMAGE SOURCE, GETTY IMAGES

There has been a record drop in the number of Covid infections in the UK, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

Around 2.87 million people would have tested positive in the week to 23 April - 900,000 fewer than the week before.
Covid levels are declining in England, Scotland and Wales but are unchanged in Northern Ireland.

Despite the decreases in all age groups in most of the UK, the ONS said infections remained high.

"We are yet to see if this is part of a larger trend," said Kara Steel, senior statistician for the Covid-19 Infection Survey.
One in 23 would test positive for the virus under the latest estimates, down from one in 17 the week before - a 24% decrease.

That equates to the largest week-on-week fall in total infections since the ONS started its survey in July 2020.

The figures are an estimate, based on tests on thousands of people in random households across the UK.

They provide the most accurate picture of Covid now that free testing for the public in England has come to an end.
Some free testing will continue in Scotland until the end of April, and in Wales and Northern Ireland until the end of June.

The ONS research found:
One in 25 people in England has Covid (down from one in 17)

One in 18 in Wales has Covid (down from one in 15)
One in 25 in Northern Ireland has Covid (which is little changed from the week before)

One in 25 in Scotland has Covid (down from one in 19)
Infections fell in all regions of England. They are highest in the North East (6.1% testing positive) and lowest in London (3.6%).

And infections in England are coming down among the over-70s (to 5%), younger adults and children, with the steepest falls among the youngest - those aged two to 10 (2%).

Official UK data shows the number of people being admitted to hospital with Covid continues to fall.

Figures had risen from about 1,100 a day in mid-February to nearly 2,400 by the end of March, but they have since dropped to about 1,455 admissions each day.

Meanwhile, the number of hospital patients with the virus in intensive-care beds is now around 325.

Data for mid-April shows 1,150 people died during the previous week with Covid-19 on their death certificate - suggesting it is very likely to be the underlying cause of death.

There were 1,673 deaths a week in mid-January.

[dpedin]

Yep - another wave on its way out - the 4th I think? - although a record drop in infections is more a reflection of a record level of infection in the population. Only 2.87 million infections, funny how we have grown to accept and celebrate these levels of infection of a novel virus with a significant chance of ongoing multi organ health risks. Vaccines continue to do the heavy lifting. However deaths, whichever you count them are still well above the 7 day averages seen in the summers of 2020 and 2021. I suspect once we see the lag from the current wave of infection work its way through we should end up at about the same level of covid deaths over the summer again. Here's hoping the next variant isn't any more dangerous and doesn't escape vaccine immunity. I suspect we will now see a lower level of ongoing community transmission until later in the year, as we did in previous years, unless another dodgy variant comes along over the summer. With increased world wide travel it is a risk.

ICU numbers are an interesting one. From speaking to my medical mates they say they are intubating far fewer covid patients and if they do they remain in ICU for fewer days than previously. They have realised that this didn't necessarily produce the best outcomes and they now try and care for most patients in wards with better oxygen therapy and of course have better pharmaceuticals available now. At the start of the pandemic there was a mad rush for ventilators but changes in clinical practice and the fact that many patients have been vaccinated and are less ill has meant that they are used less frequently and as a last resort given the poor outcomes found from initial wave. ICU usage is therefore not a reliable measure for the last couple of years.

I'm also hoping that the current surge in paediatric hepatitis cases isn't linked to covid virus, if it is then we could see even greater numbers emerge. WHO still don't know what is the underlying cause but haven't ruled out a link with covid - see https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... 022-DON376. Further research will hopefully find the cause but WHO don't seem convinced about the adenovirus hypothesis.

[Marylandolorian]

^. This

Since when do we accept that 2 million + cases is normal.

It’s because this type of thinking by too many that we are such in deep shit.

[Calculon]

Most people have moved on with their lives. The idea that transmission can be controlled with simple "low cost" measures is for the birds.

[Ymx]

Bad Chinese Flues are a real plague.

[Ymx]

Thanks for deleting your post Mary now my post makes me seem like a loon.

[laurent]

New avatar :p

[Marylandolorian]

Thanks for deleting your post Mary now my post makes me seem like a loon.

……..

[Ymx]

I'm also hoping that the current surge in paediatric hepatitis cases isn't linked to covid virus, if it is then we could see even greater numbers emerge. WHO still don't know what is the underlying cause but haven't ruled out a link with covid - see https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... 022-DON376. Further research will hopefully find the cause but WHO don't seem convinced about the adenovirus hypothesis.

It’s looking like it’s lockdowns causing the hepatitis, lack of exposure to general viruses. The problems of living with not natural PH measures …

Could Covid lockdowns be behind hepatitis surge in children?


There have been 111 serious cases of hepatitis among children since the start of the year.

A lack of exposure to a common virus during Covid restrictions could be behind the surge in hepatitis cases among young children, experts have suggested.

Health officials are urgently investigating the rise in cases which has led to more than 100 children needing hospital care and liver transplants for 10 British children.

Since the start of the year, 111 children have required hospital care for liver inflammation (hepatitis), with the majority of cases occurring among children under the age of five.

The leading line of inquiry is that the cases are being fuelled by a common virus called the adenovirus.
READ MORE

Boris Johnson: Partygate report ‘to be released’
This virus usually causes mild illnesses including stomach upsets and colds.

But one theory is that the virus is leading to more severe illness among some children due to “susceptibility, for example due to lack of prior exposure during the pandemic”, according to a technical briefing from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Of 53 cases tested, 40 (75%) showed signs of adenovirus infection.

Routine NHS and laboratory data show that common viruses circulating in children are currently higher than in previous years and there is a marked increase of adenovirus, particular in the one to four age group, the UKHSA said.
Muscle and joint pain
High temperature
Feeling and being sick
Feeling unusually tired all the time
A general sense of feeling unwell
A loss of appetite
Stomach pain
Dark urine
Pale grey poo
Itchy skin
Yellowing of the eyes or skin (jaundice)
Other avenues being explored include whether a prior Covid infection followed by an adenovirus infection could be leading to more severe cases or co-infection with the two viruses.

Experts are also examining other possible causes including a new variant of adenovirus; potential exposure to drugs, toxins or environmental factors; a new type of infection; or a new variant of the virus which causes Covid.
Covid-19 vaccination is not a contributing factor as none of the cases investigated so far have been vaccinated.
Of the confirmed cases, 81 live in England, 14 are in Scotland, 11 are in Wales and five are in Northern Ireland.
The cases are predominantly in children under five who showed initial symptoms of diarrhoea and nausea followed by jaundice.

Parents have been urged to be alert to the signs and symptoms of hepatitis, including jaundice.

Dr Meera Chand, director of clinical and emerging infections at UKHSA, said: “Information gathered through our investigations increasingly suggests that this rise in sudden onset hepatitis in children is linked to adenovirus infection. However, we are thoroughly investigating other potential causes.

“Parents and guardians should be alert to the signs of hepatitis, including jaundice, and to contact a healthcare professional if they are concerned. Normal hygiene measures such as thorough hand washing, including supervising children, and good thorough respiratory hygiene help to reduce the spread of many common infections, including adenovirus.

“Children experiencing symptoms of a gastrointestinal infection including vomiting and diarrhoea should stay at home and not return to school or nursery until 48 hours after the symptoms have stopped.”

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), as of April 21, 169 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin have been reported from 11 countries in Europe and America, while one person has died.
The global cases involve people aged one month to 16 years old, and 17 children (approximately 10%) have required liver transplants.

[petej]

That doesn't surprise me Ymx so many bugs around over the last winter. China could be very interesting as they have been stopping the transmission of everything for so long.

[JM2K6]

I'm also hoping that the current surge in paediatric hepatitis cases isn't linked to covid virus, if it is then we could see even greater numbers emerge. WHO still don't know what is the underlying cause but haven't ruled out a link with covid - see https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... 022-DON376. Further research will hopefully find the cause but WHO don't seem convinced about the adenovirus hypothesis.

It’s looking like it’s lockdowns causing the hepatitis, lack of exposure to general viruses. The problems of living with not natural PH measures …

Could Covid lockdowns be behind hepatitis surge in children?


There have been 111 serious cases of hepatitis among children since the start of the year.

A lack of exposure to a common virus during Covid restrictions could be behind the surge in hepatitis cases among young children, experts have suggested.

Health officials are urgently investigating the rise in cases which has led to more than 100 children needing hospital care and liver transplants for 10 British children.

Since the start of the year, 111 children have required hospital care for liver inflammation (hepatitis), with the majority of cases occurring among children under the age of five.

The leading line of inquiry is that the cases are being fuelled by a common virus called the adenovirus.
READ MORE

Boris Johnson: Partygate report ‘to be released’
This virus usually causes mild illnesses including stomach upsets and colds.

But one theory is that the virus is leading to more severe illness among some children due to “susceptibility, for example due to lack of prior exposure during the pandemic”, according to a technical briefing from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Of 53 cases tested, 40 (75%) showed signs of adenovirus infection.

Routine NHS and laboratory data show that common viruses circulating in children are currently higher than in previous years and there is a marked increase of adenovirus, particular in the one to four age group, the UKHSA said.
Muscle and joint pain
High temperature
Feeling and being sick
Feeling unusually tired all the time
A general sense of feeling unwell
A loss of appetite
Stomach pain
Dark urine
Pale grey poo
Itchy skin
Yellowing of the eyes or skin (jaundice)
Other avenues being explored include whether a prior Covid infection followed by an adenovirus infection could be leading to more severe cases or co-infection with the two viruses.

Experts are also examining other possible causes including a new variant of adenovirus; potential exposure to drugs, toxins or environmental factors; a new type of infection; or a new variant of the virus which causes Covid.
Covid-19 vaccination is not a contributing factor as none of the cases investigated so far have been vaccinated.
Of the confirmed cases, 81 live in England, 14 are in Scotland, 11 are in Wales and five are in Northern Ireland.
The cases are predominantly in children under five who showed initial symptoms of diarrhoea and nausea followed by jaundice.

Parents have been urged to be alert to the signs and symptoms of hepatitis, including jaundice.

Dr Meera Chand, director of clinical and emerging infections at UKHSA, said: “Information gathered through our investigations increasingly suggests that this rise in sudden onset hepatitis in children is linked to adenovirus infection. However, we are thoroughly investigating other potential causes.

“Parents and guardians should be alert to the signs of hepatitis, including jaundice, and to contact a healthcare professional if they are concerned. Normal hygiene measures such as thorough hand washing, including supervising children, and good thorough respiratory hygiene help to reduce the spread of many common infections, including adenovirus.

“Children experiencing symptoms of a gastrointestinal infection including vomiting and diarrhoea should stay at home and not return to school or nursery until 48 hours after the symptoms have stopped.”

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), as of April 21, 169 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin have been reported from 11 countries in Europe and America, while one person has died.
The global cases involve people aged one month to 16 years old, and 17 children (approximately 10%) have required liver transplants.

Data from other countries suggests lockdowns are far from a primary cause. India had a big problem with this in areas that had no lockdown. Parts of Australia that were heavily locked down don't have this issue.

Long way to go before anyone gets to the root of it.

[TB63]

Well, all the family have it ATM. My very elderly parents attended a Parkinson's society meeting and it ripped through the attendees.
Both are ok thankfully, albeit heavy colds and coughs, but seem to be improving, I've had a cold and headache and that's about it..

[Biffer]

I see this sentence

The leading line of inquiry is that the cases are being fuelled by a common virus called the adenovirus.

and despair.

Adenoviruses are a family, like coronaviruses. Immediately makes me think the journo involved has ben listening intently to someone explaining it to him and has understood sweet fuck all. SO the rest of the article will likely have equally glaring errors and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

[dpedin]

I see this sentence

The leading line of inquiry is that the cases are being fuelled by a common virus called the adenovirus.

and despair.

Adenoviruses are a family, like coronaviruses. Immediately makes me think the journo involved has ben listening intently to someone explaining it to him and has understood sweet fuck all. SO the rest of the article will likely have equally glaring errors and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The evidence that 'lock downs' are the cause of hepatitis in kids is sketchy at best, as said above the data is inconsistent at best when looking at where cases have arisen and frequency and duration of lock downs. Even if there was reduced circulation of adenovirus during lock down this in itself does not explain it now causing the increase in hepatitis in kids. Even WHO were sceptical of this hypothesis. More likely, and research is emerging to suggest this is a likely explanation, is that covid has an impact on the immune system in many people, including children, thus making them more exposed to other viral infections. Covid is a unique and dangerous virus in how it is mutating so fast and impacting adversely on individuals in many different ways - cardiac, neurological, vascular, etc. Best try and avoid it!

[petej]

I see this sentence

The leading line of inquiry is that the cases are being fuelled by a common virus called the adenovirus.

and despair.

Adenoviruses are a family, like coronaviruses. Immediately makes me think the journo involved has ben listening intently to someone explaining it to him and has understood sweet fuck all. SO the rest of the article will likely have equally glaring errors and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The evidence that 'lock downs' are the cause of hepatitis in kids is sketchy at best, as said above the data is inconsistent at best when looking at where cases have arisen and frequency and duration of lock downs. Even if there was reduced circulation of adenovirus during lock down this in itself does not explain it now causing the increase in hepatitis in kids. Even WHO were sceptical of this hypothesis. More likely, and research is emerging to suggest this is a likely explanation, is that covid has an impact on the immune system in many people, including children, thus making them more exposed to other viral infections. Covid is a unique and dangerous virus in how it is mutating so fast and impacting adversely on individuals in many different ways - cardiac, neurological, vascular, etc. Best try and avoid it!

The increase in hepatitis might not be an increase at all if you look over longer time frame. Merely lockdown type measures delayed it temporarily.

[Biffer]

I see this sentence



and despair.

Adenoviruses are a family, like coronaviruses. Immediately makes me think the journo involved has ben listening intently to someone explaining it to him and has understood sweet fuck all. SO the rest of the article will likely have equally glaring errors and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The evidence that 'lock downs' are the cause of hepatitis in kids is sketchy at best, as said above the data is inconsistent at best when looking at where cases have arisen and frequency and duration of lock downs. Even if there was reduced circulation of adenovirus during lock down this in itself does not explain it now causing the increase in hepatitis in kids. Even WHO were sceptical of this hypothesis. More likely, and research is emerging to suggest this is a likely explanation, is that covid has an impact on the immune system in many people, including children, thus making them more exposed to other viral infections. Covid is a unique and dangerous virus in how it is mutating so fast and impacting adversely on individuals in many different ways - cardiac, neurological, vascular, etc. Best try and avoid it!

The increase in hepatitis might not be an increase at all if you look over longer time frame. Merely lockdown type measures delayed it temporarily.

Nah, it’s statistically significant. They do consider things like that you know.

[Calculon]

47 days locked inside your apartment with no end in sight. Has this stopped transmission, not in the least

[Ymx]

Lockdown was strongly looking like a non starter of a plan with omicron. Especially after the data from SA. But it was a nervous wait, but ultimately panned out to be a correct call.

Add to that the unknown risk of what lockdowns do to other diseases, and immune systems. Eg the above

With a population of extremely high level of antibody protection, and better treatment, it was possible to keep the NHS coping way better than the early alpha/delta waves (which had more dangerous variant, unvaccinated population).

Also it is just too infectious to stop. Ask China and more so, NZ.

No one is really talking about covid any more here. Only conversation I have on it, is on here.

[JM2K6]

I can assure you plenty of people still talk about covid. Most parents I know, for a start. Most business owners. Lots of people have gotten it recently (like me) and it really fucking sucked.

The "lockdown causes hepatitis" thing seems to be getting very short shrift outside of the UK, for some fairly obvious reasons.

[petej]

The evidence that 'lock downs' are the cause of hepatitis in kids is sketchy at best, as said above the data is inconsistent at best when looking at where cases have arisen and frequency and duration of lock downs. Even if there was reduced circulation of adenovirus during lock down this in itself does not explain it now causing the increase in hepatitis in kids. Even WHO were sceptical of this hypothesis. More likely, and research is emerging to suggest this is a likely explanation, is that covid has an impact on the immune system in many people, including children, thus making them more exposed to other viral infections. Covid is a unique and dangerous virus in how it is mutating so fast and impacting adversely on individuals in many different ways - cardiac, neurological, vascular, etc. Best try and avoid it!

The increase in hepatitis might not be an increase at all if you look over longer time frame. Merely lockdown type measures delayed it temporarily.

Nah, it’s statistically significant. They do consider things like that you know.

Some of the shite published during covid indicates they really don't always consider that. Some of the metastudies were crimes against numbers and common sense.

[Biffer]

The increase in hepatitis might not be an increase at all if you look over longer time frame. Merely lockdown type measures delayed it temporarily.

Nah, it’s statistically significant. They do consider things like that you know.

Some of the shite published during covid indicates they really don't always consider that. Some of the metastudies were crimes against numbers and common sense.

Ah, the old common sense line. Always an indication that someone really doesn’t understand what they’ve read.

[mat the expat]

No one is really talking about covid any more here. Only conversation I have on it, is on here.

Australia has had more deaths over the last 3 months than all of 2020 & 21 combined

It's completely off the air due to the electioneering

[Ymx]

I can assure you plenty of people still talk about covid. Most parents I know, for a start. Most business owners. Lots of people have gotten it recently (like me) and it really fucking sucked.

They really aren’t. It’s crazy how much it’s just fallen away from conscious around here. With the possible exception of flights.

[Ymx]

That suddenly reminded me … my flight to Spain in July

Just checked and just need
- proof of vaccination for us
- And nothing for our daughter 9YO

So no covid tests needed at all. That’s a relief. No week before anxiety about one of us contracting BA-3

[petej]

Nah, it’s statistically significant. They do consider things like that you know.

Some of the shite published during covid indicates they really don't always consider that. Some of the metastudies were crimes against numbers and common sense.

Ah, the old common sense line. Always an indication that someone really doesn’t understand what they’ve read.

Amalgamation of poor quality data and studies doesn't actually improve data quality. A lot of studies during covid wouldn't have got past peer review.