The Scottish Politics Thread

[Blackmac]

I'll openly admit that I'm a political lightweight when it comes to discussing this but my overwhelming impression is that the Brexit negotiations will appear to be a walk in the park compared to what we would face in Independence negotiations. The UK government would have all the cards and have little or no reason to provide any concessions. With the vast majority of our imports coming from England or through England how could we possibly expect to negotiate a reasonable split.

[Tattie]

I'll openly admit that I'm a political lightweight when it comes to discussing this but my overwhelming impression is that the Brexit negotiations will appear to be a walk in the park compared to what we would face in Independence negotiations. The UK government would have all the cards and have little or no reason to provide any concessions. With the vast majority of our imports coming from England or through England how could we possibly expect to negotiate a reasonable split.

See to me this is just a version of the too wee/subsidised by England attitude.

Scotland would hold a pretty strong negotiating hand. We have a lot of what the rest of the UK needs, especially in regard to energy - renewables in particular. A very good friend of mine who is high up in an oil and gas company told me a few months ago that Scotland will be capable of providing almost all of the UKs renewable energy in the near future.

He’s a massive unionist so wasn’t too happy when I pointed out that that’s another great reason for independence.

[Blackmac]

I'll openly admit that I'm a political lightweight when it comes to discussing this but my overwhelming impression is that the Brexit negotiations will appear to be a walk in the park compared to what we would face in Independence negotiations. The UK government would have all the cards and have little or no reason to provide any concessions. With the vast majority of our imports coming from England or through England how could we possibly expect to negotiate a reasonable split.

See to me this is just a version of the too wee/subsidised by England attitude.

Scotland would hold a pretty strong negotiating hand. We have a lot of what the rest of the UK needs, especially in regard to energy - renewables in particular. A very good friend of mine who is high up in an oil and gas company told me a few months ago that Scotland will be capable of providing almost all of the UKs renewable energy in the near future.

He’s a massive unionist so wasn’t too happy when I pointed out that that’s another great reason for independence.

[Blackmac]

I'll openly admit that I'm a political lightweight when it comes to discussing this but my overwhelming impression is that the Brexit negotiations will appear to be a walk in the park compared to what we would face in Independence negotiations. The UK government would have all the cards and have little or no reason to provide any concessions. With the vast majority of our imports coming from England or through England how could we possibly expect to negotiate a reasonable split.

See to me this is just a version of the too wee/subsidised by England attitude.

Scotland would hold a pretty strong negotiating hand. We have a lot of what the rest of the UK needs, especially in regard to energy - renewables in particular. A very good friend of mine who is high up in an oil and gas company told me a few months ago that Scotland will be capable of providing almost all of the UKs renewable energy in the near future.

He’s a massive unionist so wasn’t too happy when I pointed out that that’s another great reason for independence.

But that is almost an identical argument we heard from Brexiteers though.

It has also been proven quite significantly over the last year that our so called self sufficiency in renewables has done us fuck all good as the cost of renewables makes it far too expensive to rely on to provide all our energy. It's also just a rehashed version of the oil rich bollocks were endured in the first referendum.

You also hear similar arguments about our other industries, water and whisky for example but when you break down the figures it just appears to be a drop in the ocean.

It's just seems to me to be a grass is greener argument with little or no tangible evidence to back it up.

[Biffer]

In all honesty it just feels really tired now, can’t be bothered

This. Might be a covid thing, might be that I am fed up of division (although that appears to be the new normal) or that while I understand there needs to be a future debate on independence, I'd rather the time and money was spent on covid recovery, education etc rather than independence which will again dominate.

Completely understand that others will have very different opinions on that and that's fair enough.

The divide is one of the biggest kicks in the bollocks. The thought of going through this shite again is pretty depressing. I've said before that I was optimistic we would have an adult debate about things prior to the last referendum. It started well enough but quickly descended into immature tribal shite that got worse after the vote. We've not grown as a nation since then and I doubt we will in the coming year.

I thought the debate was very good for the first 18 months but then took a turn for the worse when UK wide media and politicians got involved in the last few months. Which kind of demonstrates another reason to get away in my mind.

[Big D]

This. Might be a covid thing, might be that I am fed up of division (although that appears to be the new normal) or that while I understand there needs to be a future debate on independence, I'd rather the time and money was spent on covid recovery, education etc rather than independence which will again dominate.

Completely understand that others will have very different opinions on that and that's fair enough.

The divide is one of the biggest kicks in the bollocks. The thought of going through this shite again is pretty depressing. I've said before that I was optimistic we would have an adult debate about things prior to the last referendum. It started well enough but quickly descended into immature tribal shite that got worse after the vote. We've not grown as a nation since then and I doubt we will in the coming year.

I thought the debate was very good for the first 18 months but then took a turn for the worse when UK wide media and politicians got involved in the last few months. Which kind of demonstrates another reason to get away in my mind.

It was pretty ugly from the extremes of both sides long before the UK wide media, politicians and "personalities" got involved. We like to pretend otherwise but there is some nasty elements on either side and there has been for a while.

[Jock42]

The divide is one of the biggest kicks in the bollocks. The thought of going through this shite again is pretty depressing. I've said before that I was optimistic we would have an adult debate about things prior to the last referendum. It started well enough but quickly descended into immature tribal shite that got worse after the vote. We've not grown as a nation since then and I doubt we will in the coming year.

I thought the debate was very good for the first 18 months but then took a turn for the worse when UK wide media and politicians got involved in the last few months. Which kind of demonstrates another reason to get away in my mind.

It was pretty ugly from the extremes of both sides long before the UK wide media, politicians and "personalities" got involved. We like to pretend otherwise but there is some nasty elements on either side and there has been for a while.

Very much so. I also felt that began to filter down to more moderate people. The unpleasantness from certain elements
of the Nationalist side is probably the main reason my views are so entrenched.

[Tichtheid]

I thought the debate was very good for the first 18 months but then took a turn for the worse when UK wide media and politicians got involved in the last few months. Which kind of demonstrates another reason to get away in my mind.

It was pretty ugly from the extremes of both sides long before the UK wide media, politicians and "personalities" got involved. We like to pretend otherwise but there is some nasty elements on either side and there has been for a while.

Very much so. I also felt that began to filter down to more moderate people. The unpleasantness from certain elements
of the Nationalist side is probably the main reason my views are so entrenched.

You're in/were in the armed services weren't you? (I'm making an assumption on the username)

What do you think the overall feeling on the matter in the services is? Just from your own experiences and from folk you know.

I can't imagine there is too much support for Scot Indy from the services, though I'm open to correction.

[Jock42]

You're in/were in the armed services weren't you? (I'm making an assumption on the username)

What do you think the overall feeling on the matter in the services is? Just from your own experiences and from folk you know.

I can't imagine there is too much support for Scot Indy from the services, though I'm open to correction.

Ex regular, serving reservist.

I wouldn't say it's 55/45 but there's probably a lot more than you think in favour of independence. Although, off hand, I'd say it's more those that have left.

[Tichtheid]

You're in/were in the armed services weren't you? (I'm making an assumption on the username)

What do you think the overall feeling on the matter in the services is? Just from your own experiences and from folk you know.

I can't imagine there is too much support for Scot Indy from the services, though I'm open to correction.

Ex regular, serving reservist.

I wouldn't say it's 55/45 but there's probably a lot more than you think in favour of independence. Although, off hand, I'd say it's more those that have left.

Cheers, interesting.

I'm just trying to get a handle on what sort of support Indy might have from all corners.

[Thor Sedan]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

[Slick]

I think it is known I favour independence.

But I can't see any case for having a referendum until it is 'the settled will of the Scottish people'. Lose another and the idea is in the long grass for a very, very long time.

In times of turmoil people either vote for the devil they know, or the bright shining promise. Trump was many things, but for many Americans there was the bright shining promise of MAGA. People believed that America was being held back, and if only someone could free them of those chains, they would once more become the land of milk and honey for all. That he was a charlatan did not matter, he gave people hope.

There is no bright shining promise in Scotland just now. There is the same tired old rhetoric which is not going to change anyone's mind. So people will stick with the devil they know. It really is flogging a dead horse at the moment.

This is about where my head is at.

I completely get the case for another referendum given all that has changed since the last, not least leaving the EU. But if winning the referendum is the intention rather than just having it, I can't see the win happening. Then after, the leaving the EU argument for another referendum is spent and it'll be a long while until the next one.

Seems more sensible to wait, let the leaving the EU impacts become more vivid, another couple of years of the current Tory government (not just Boris, a fair chunk of them are complicit), some more time to get answers to some of the bigger questions last time.

If Boris wants to kill this off for a while the best thing he could do is support it. I can't really believe the Scottish Government want it because losing is such a big risk and the impact of losing will be huge for the ultimate goal.

Seems like posturing/being seen to at least try and fulfil what they said they would do to me.

Do you really think that if they haven’t already got answers to some of the bigger questions last time they are going to come up with them now? It’s been 8/9 years and still the same questions not getting answers.

The dial hardly moving after all we have been through in the last few years suggests to me the whole thing needs reassessment. Maybe some honesty instead of the same old nonsense. I honestly think a more open and transparent approach would get me engaged but I’m not prepared to vote for something I know, and more importantly they know, is a lie

[Blackmac]

I think it is known I favour independence.

But I can't see any case for having a referendum until it is 'the settled will of the Scottish people'. Lose another and the idea is in the long grass for a very, very long time.

In times of turmoil people either vote for the devil they know, or the bright shining promise. Trump was many things, but for many Americans there was the bright shining promise of MAGA. People believed that America was being held back, and if only someone could free them of those chains, they would once more become the land of milk and honey for all. That he was a charlatan did not matter, he gave people hope.

There is no bright shining promise in Scotland just now. There is the same tired old rhetoric which is not going to change anyone's mind. So people will stick with the devil they know. It really is flogging a dead horse at the moment.

This is about where my head is at.

I completely get the case for another referendum given all that has changed since the last, not least leaving the EU. But if winning the referendum is the intention rather than just having it, I can't see the win happening. Then after, the leaving the EU argument for another referendum is spent and it'll be a long while until the next one.

Seems more sensible to wait, let the leaving the EU impacts become more vivid, another couple of years of the current Tory government (not just Boris, a fair chunk of them are complicit), some more time to get answers to some of the bigger questions last time.

If Boris wants to kill this off for a while the best thing he could do is support it. I can't really believe the Scottish Government want it because losing is such a big risk and the impact of losing will be huge for the ultimate goal.

Seems like posturing/being seen to at least try and fulfil what they said they would do to me.

Do you really think that if they haven’t already got answers to some of the bigger questions last time they are going to come up with them now? It’s been 8/9 years and still the same questions not getting answers.

The dial hardly moving after all we have been through in the last few years suggests to me the whole thing needs reassessment. Maybe some honesty instead of the same old nonsense. I honestly think a more open and transparent approach would get me engaged but I’m not prepared to vote for something I know, and more importantly they know, is a lie

That virtually sums up my feelings. It's incredible that it is still a knife edge scenario when you consider the clusterfuck the tories have managed to create. Unfortunately the incompetence and sleaze of the tories has been pretty closely matched by the SNP, leaving many with little or no confidence that they are capable to carrying it off.

[C T]

I think it is known I favour independence.

But I can't see any case for having a referendum until it is 'the settled will of the Scottish people'. Lose another and the idea is in the long grass for a very, very long time.

In times of turmoil people either vote for the devil they know, or the bright shining promise. Trump was many things, but for many Americans there was the bright shining promise of MAGA. People believed that America was being held back, and if only someone could free them of those chains, they would once more become the land of milk and honey for all. That he was a charlatan did not matter, he gave people hope.

There is no bright shining promise in Scotland just now. There is the same tired old rhetoric which is not going to change anyone's mind. So people will stick with the devil they know. It really is flogging a dead horse at the moment.

This is about where my head is at.

I completely get the case for another referendum given all that has changed since the last, not least leaving the EU. But if winning the referendum is the intention rather than just having it, I can't see the win happening. Then after, the leaving the EU argument for another referendum is spent and it'll be a long while until the next one.

Seems more sensible to wait, let the leaving the EU impacts become more vivid, another couple of years of the current Tory government (not just Boris, a fair chunk of them are complicit), some more time to get answers to some of the bigger questions last time.

If Boris wants to kill this off for a while the best thing he could do is support it. I can't really believe the Scottish Government want it because losing is such a big risk and the impact of losing will be huge for the ultimate goal.

Seems like posturing/being seen to at least try and fulfil what they said they would do to me.

Do you really think that if they haven’t already got answers to some of the bigger questions last time they are going to come up with them now? It’s been 8/9 years and still the same questions not getting answers.

The dial hardly moving after all we have been through in the last few years suggests to me the whole thing needs reassessment. Maybe some honesty instead of the same old nonsense. I honestly think a more open and transparent approach would get me engaged but I’m not prepared to vote for something I know, and more importantly they know, is a lie

I think that's a completely fair expectation. If the big questions are already solved then the Scottish Government needs to be honest and transparent with the answers, whether or not it "helps the cause".

[fishfoodie]

I'd hope at least then when the SNP publishes it's proposal, they state that winning by a single vote isn't enough.

The worst case for Scotland is a small majority for Independence; that would be catastrophic; you'd have to have maybe a 60:40 split at worst to claim a credible mandate.

[tc27]

I'll openly admit that I'm a political lightweight when it comes to discussing this but my overwhelming impression is that the Brexit negotiations will appear to be a walk in the park compared to what we would face in Independence negotiations. The UK government would have all the cards and have little or no reason to provide any concessions. With the vast majority of our imports coming from England or through England how could we possibly expect to negotiate a reasonable split.

See to me this is just a version of the too wee/subsidised by England attitude.

Scotland would hold a pretty strong negotiating hand. We have a lot of what the rest of the UK needs, especially in regard to energy - renewables in particular. A very good friend of mine who is high up in an oil and gas company told me a few months ago that Scotland will be capable of providing almost all of the UKs renewable energy in the near future.

He’s a massive unionist so wasn’t too happy when I pointed out that that’s another great reason for independence.

I give you credit for not claiming the rest of the UK is dependant on Scottish water exports at least.

How do you think energy will be leveraged in talks? Would the Scottish side threaten to cut of energy exports at some point in the future when they have built interconnectors and nationalised the energy providers? Doesn't seem like much of a realistic threat that could be used (particularly when the rUK has plenty of sources from which it can import power).

Its a but of a moot point as in 2014 the SG proposed keeping the current GB energy grid and market (which makes sense as its subsidizing the cost of building renewables in Scotland).

[Big D]

I'd hope at least then when the SNP publishes it's proposal, they state that winning by a single vote isn't enough.

The worst case for Scotland is a small majority for Independence; that would be catastrophic; you'd have to have maybe a 60:40 split at worst to claim a credible mandate.

To be honest, while I think there should be safeguards in referendums with certain actions at certain thresholds, the genie is out the bottle and 50%+1 is enough - that's the rules.. 50%+1 vote of people who have voted shouldn't be enough in any referendum to cause a change especially when there is often such a great unknown as to what will happen after. It is what it is and unfortunately as we've seen with Brexit we will need to deal with the consequences.

I do feel sorry for businesses, particularly the mid size ones who trade within the UK and internationally. They have had Brexit to deal with, Covid, and now potentially independence which they'll have no idea how that will help or hinder their business or what currency will be used and then presumably yet another referendum on re-entry to the EU*.

*I really hope the independence movement don't try to use Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as examples of how quickly applications can move given their circumstances.

[Biffer]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

If other countries our size can stand on their own without the level of energy resources we have, it’d be bizarre if we couldn’t.

Given the places that energy companies operate, the idea they wouldn’t operate in Scotland is in my view far fetched.

I’m certain it’ll happen eventually, it’s a question of when. The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

[Slick]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

If other countries our size can stand on their own without the level of energy resources we have, it’d be bizarre if we couldn’t.

Given the places that energy companies operate, the idea they wouldn’t operate in Scotland is in my view far fetched.

I’m certain it’ll happen eventually, it’s a question of when. The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

I don’t know if this is covered in their plans, but what is the SNP going to do about oil & gas? It was obviously a huge part of the previous referendum but I don’t know what their position is for this one? They have withdrawn support for the industry so is the idea to keep hold of the assets and run them down? Sell off the assets they think they own and will get as part of any deal? Realise that in the real world it’s cash that we can’t afford to drop?

It’s either going to be a massive reverse in their stated strategy or a pretty unimaginable loss of revenue for a new state

[Slick]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

I’ve absolutely no doubt that Scotland can eventually stand on its own and be successful, but let’s have some honesty that joining the EU will take decades and there are going to be some really unpleasant economic issues and job losses - mainly to their core support- in the meantime. Let’s have that honest debate and see if we have the stomach for the reality. I honestly think i could be persuaded but I’m not interested in the fantasy being peddled at the moment.

[fishfoodie]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

I’ve absolutely no doubt that Scotland can eventually stand on its own and be successful, but let’s have some honesty that joining the EU will take decades and there are going to be some really unpleasant economic issues and job losses - mainly to their core support- in the meantime. Let’s have that honest debate and see if we have the stomach for the reality. I honestly think i could be persuaded but I’m not interested in the fantasy being peddled at the moment.

I don't think it'd take that long. The longest part of the process is usually setting up institutions that meet EU requirements, Justice system, Civil service, etc, etc; & Scotland had all of that working when it was a member as part of the U, so the only risk is if there's drift.

The EU would be gun shy, if they thought that Scotland could turn into another Hungary, but you are a pretty low risk there

[Slick]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

I’ve absolutely no doubt that Scotland can eventually stand on its own and be successful, but let’s have some honesty that joining the EU will take decades and there are going to be some really unpleasant economic issues and job losses - mainly to their core support- in the meantime. Let’s have that honest debate and see if we have the stomach for the reality. I honestly think i could be persuaded but I’m not interested in the fantasy being peddled at the moment.

I don't think it'd take that long. The longest part of the process is usually setting up institutions that meet EU requirements, Justice system, Civil service, etc, etc; & Scotland had all of that working when it was a member as part of the U, so the only risk is if there's drift.

The EU would be gun shy, if they thought that Scotland could turn into another Hungary, but you are a pretty low risk there

Well we’ve already got almost complete politicisation of the civil service and many other groups, so it’s not an enormous stretch

[clydecloggie]

What's everyone's views on SNP tactics here?

It sounds unlikely the UK government will provide an S30 like the Edinburgh Agreement that governed the 2014 referendum. I can't imagine that against that constitutional backdrop the Supreme Court will then rule in favour of the Scottish Government and say a legal referendum can be held without the UK Government's consent.

So is the plan essentially to let this play out but then get independence through winning the next UK General Election in Scotland on a platform that is exclusively 'if you vote for us, we'll declare independence'?

And for the doubters or noobs, they'll still have my vote - I'm so utterly fed up with anything UK I'd probably vote for independence if it came with mandatory shit-eating. Better that than contribute to a neo-fascist failed state. I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

[Biffer]

What's everyone's views on SNP tactics here?

It sounds unlikely the UK government will provide an S30 like the Edinburgh Agreement that governed the 2014 referendum. I can't imagine that against that constitutional backdrop the Supreme Court will then rule in favour of the Scottish Government and say a legal referendum can be held without the UK Government's consent.

So is the plan essentially to let this play out but then get independence through winning the next UK General Election in Scotland on a platform that is exclusively 'if you vote for us, we'll declare independence'?

And for the doubters or noobs, they'll still have my vote - I'm so utterly fed up with anything UK I'd probably vote for independence if it came with mandatory shit-eating. Better that than contribute to a neo-fascist failed state. I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

I think the plan is to demonstrate how Scotland doesn't get to decide its own future, either in law or in politics, and then play the 'what is the democratic route to independence?' card over and over again.

[clydecloggie]

What's everyone's views on SNP tactics here?

It sounds unlikely the UK government will provide an S30 like the Edinburgh Agreement that governed the 2014 referendum. I can't imagine that against that constitutional backdrop the Supreme Court will then rule in favour of the Scottish Government and say a legal referendum can be held without the UK Government's consent.

So is the plan essentially to let this play out but then get independence through winning the next UK General Election in Scotland on a platform that is exclusively 'if you vote for us, we'll declare independence'?

And for the doubters or noobs, they'll still have my vote - I'm so utterly fed up with anything UK I'd probably vote for independence if it came with mandatory shit-eating. Better that than contribute to a neo-fascist failed state. I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

I think the plan is to demonstrate how Scotland doesn't get to decide its own future, either in law or in politics, and then play the 'what is the democratic route to independence?' card over and over again.

Yes, but (correct me if I'm wrong) some SNP high-ups have already mentioned the next GE as a de facto independence referendum as Plan B - so I'm wondering if that is the actual Plan A and the posturing about the Oct '23 referendum is essentially, like you say, to show that Scotland never gets its way within the UK.

[Biffer]

What's everyone's views on SNP tactics here?

It sounds unlikely the UK government will provide an S30 like the Edinburgh Agreement that governed the 2014 referendum. I can't imagine that against that constitutional backdrop the Supreme Court will then rule in favour of the Scottish Government and say a legal referendum can be held without the UK Government's consent.

So is the plan essentially to let this play out but then get independence through winning the next UK General Election in Scotland on a platform that is exclusively 'if you vote for us, we'll declare independence'?

And for the doubters or noobs, they'll still have my vote - I'm so utterly fed up with anything UK I'd probably vote for independence if it came with mandatory shit-eating. Better that than contribute to a neo-fascist failed state. I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

I think the plan is to demonstrate how Scotland doesn't get to decide its own future, either in law or in politics, and then play the 'what is the democratic route to independence?' card over and over again.

Yes, but (correct me if I'm wrong) some SNP high-ups have already mentioned the next GE as a de facto independence referendum as Plan B - so I'm wondering if that is the actual Plan A and the posturing about the Oct '23 referendum is essentially, like you say, to show that Scotland never gets its way within the UK.

That works into it though. If the sole policy is independence and you win 90% of Westminster seats, that's a clear Westminster mandate from Scotland. And as said above, the courts are likely to state it is a Westminster responsibility. So it confirms the anti-democratic nature of denying a referendum.

[Tichtheid]

I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

The ferries situation is bad, best part of five years late and £120M over budget, but it has updated and saved the shipyard, the ferries would still have been built if the contract had gone abroad

A quick google tells me London cross rail extension is three and a half years late and more than £4Bn over budget. Track and Trace(£22Bn), HS2 (closing in on doubling its original budget to around £100Bn), there are more if I can be arsed looking for them.

Is this whataboutery? Of course it is, but if these large Gov contracts are a stick that can be used to beat a government with, then it applies across the board

[clydecloggie]

I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

The ferries situation is bad, best part of five years late and £120M over budget, but it has updated and saved the shipyard, the ferries would still have been built if the contract had gone abroad

A quick google tells me London cross rail extension is three and a half years late and more than £4Bn over budget. Track and Trace(£22Bn), HS2 (closing in on doubling its original budget to around £100Bn), there are more if I can be arsed looking for them.

Is this whataboutery? Of course it is, but if these large Gov contracts are a stick that can be used to beat a government with, then it applies across the board

And of course that far-over-budget HS2 is partly paid for by funds formally allocated to Scotland while the north link to HS2 has now been cut and impact assessments for the original plan already showed HS2 would have a negative impact on the economy of e.g. Aberdeen. Nice one, UK.

[Thor Sedan]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

If other countries our size can stand on their own without the level of energy resources we have, it’d be bizarre if we couldn’t.

Given the places that energy companies operate, the idea they wouldn’t operate in Scotland is in my view far fetched.

I’m certain it’ll happen eventually, it’s a question of when. The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

But very few countries have been so intrinsically linked with another country - for so long and then gone out on their own. Can you name me a country with similar characteristics to Scotland that has gone independent and enjoys a similar or better standard of living (maybe Rep. of Ireland)? This isn't a gotcha question - it is a genuinely interested one.

The issues with currency, health industry, policing, education etc etc are massive issues when discussing independence. Not to mention the huge central belt bias shown by the SNP.

It isn't simple - and many folk are genuinely worried about the way it may affect their lives.

Personally - I am more open to it due to what the state of affairs is down in Westminster. But perhaps a Labour government would temper the fervour for it? Can't see it happening though.

[Biffer]

It is tricky for me (and a few others in our circles). Independence would perhaps reopen relations with Europe (which is very popular in Scotland) - but there will always be that 'Can Scotland stand on its own'?

Energy is huge - both hydrocarbons and renewables....but would it be enough? Would large operator and service companies stick in Scotland with doubts over currency, borders etc.

I think after the first referendum, Brexit, downturn in O&G and then Covid and Ukraine - we're all just tired of these big social changes being debated. Maybe just give us a few years to steady the ship, have a break and then look at it then. It is just going to divide the country and cause all manner of hardship for an already beaten up population.

But my god it would be nice to be away from the Tory scum and useless Labour muppets that are currently pfaffing around.

If other countries our size can stand on their own without the level of energy resources we have, it’d be bizarre if we couldn’t.

Given the places that energy companies operate, the idea they wouldn’t operate in Scotland is in my view far fetched.

I’m certain it’ll happen eventually, it’s a question of when. The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

But very few countries have been so intrinsically linked with another country - for so long and then gone out on their own. Can you name me a country with similar characteristics to Scotland that has gone independent and enjoys a similar or better standard of living (maybe Rep. of Ireland)? This isn't a gotcha question - it is a genuinely interested one.

The issues with currency, health industry, policing, education etc etc are massive issues when discussing independence. Not to mention the huge central belt bias shown by the SNP.

It isn't simple - and many folk are genuinely worried about the way it may affect their lives.

Personally - I am more open to it due to what the state of affairs is down in Westminster. But perhaps a Labour government would temper the fervour for it? Can't see it happening though.

There's obviously not a direct comparison as there's no direct equivalent of the UK elsewhere in the world. But Czechia and Slovakia have made good progress since their split and you could point to any number of post colonial countries that have flourished in the medium term. All the evidence is that small, liberal democracies prosper with decent governance. It's equally difficult to find a country that's split off from a larger state and collapsed.

SNP central belt bias is a big problem for me, even though I live in Edinburgh - my heritage is from the Highlands and Islands so I understand we need to put different provisions in place. Investment in interisland tunnels in various places is something I really want to see, for example. I'm not on board with a lot of SNP policies and I've voted for all five of the parties during my lifetime. There are issues with many areas - but equally there are issues with many of those areas as part of the UK - not the same issues, in some cases less challenging in other cases more challenging. Indy could give us the opportunity to redefine the way public money is spent in many areas and make sure we protect things like education and health from privatization and outside interests.

[Tichtheid]

The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

OTOH, I think it can be argued that England was the first colony of the Empire and if things had gone differently in the last 80 years, or last forty at least there would be less call for independence.
There was a lot of good work done in the post-war consensus, but that was attacked ferociously by Thatcher and we've never really recovered from that time.

[Biffer]

The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

OTOH, I think it can be argued that England was the first colony of the Empire and if things had gone differently in the last 80 years, or last forty at least there would be less call for independence.
There was a lot of good work done in the post-war consensus, but that was attacked ferociously by Thatcher and we've never really recovered from that time.

Even with Thatcher though, she understood the need to redefine the UK in the post Empire world and wanted to position us as working with and leading the EU along with France and Germany (despite the clashes and difficulties she saw it as the way forward in the post-colonial world order). It's the last ten or twenty years it's really gone to shit as the loonies have taken over the tories and their voters haven't noticed.

[clydecloggie]

The UK was created as part of the European empire building period (and no, I’m not saying Scotland is the last colony etc, I think that’s bullshit - our relationship with empire is far more complex) and it’s not fit for purpose in the modern world. If there’s not a genuine desire to redefine the UK as a state it will eventually break up.

OTOH, I think it can be argued that England was the first colony of the Empire and if things had gone differently in the last 80 years, or last forty at least there would be less call for independence.
There was a lot of good work done in the post-war consensus, but that was attacked ferociously by Thatcher and we've never really recovered from that time.

Even with Thatcher though, she understood the need to redefine the UK in the post Empire world and wanted to position us as working with and leading the EU along with France and Germany (despite the clashes and difficulties she saw it as the way forward in the post-colonial world order). It's the last ten or twenty years it's really gone to shit as the loonies have taken over the tories and their voters haven't noticed.

Thatcher broke the 'one nation' idea, or at least she allowed others in her Government to experiment with different (tax and funding) rules for different parts of the UK, and that was the catalyst for making independence a mainstream concern in Scotland.

At the same time, as you say, she was very much pro-European and saw the UK leading in Europe as its new role post-Empire.

It's funny that the current demolition mob in Westminster does it all in name of Churchill and Thatcher.

[Biffer]

OTOH, I think it can be argued that England was the first colony of the Empire and if things had gone differently in the last 80 years, or last forty at least there would be less call for independence.
There was a lot of good work done in the post-war consensus, but that was attacked ferociously by Thatcher and we've never really recovered from that time.

Even with Thatcher though, she understood the need to redefine the UK in the post Empire world and wanted to position us as working with and leading the EU along with France and Germany (despite the clashes and difficulties she saw it as the way forward in the post-colonial world order). It's the last ten or twenty years it's really gone to shit as the loonies have taken over the tories and their voters haven't noticed.

Thatcher broke the 'one nation' idea, or at least she allowed others in her Government to experiment with different (tax and funding) rules for different parts of the UK, and that was the catalyst for making independence a mainstream concern in Scotland.

At the same time, as you say, she was very much pro-European and saw the UK leading in Europe as its new role post-Empire.

It's funny that the current demolition mob in Westminster does it all in name of Churchill and Thatcher.

To be clear I'm not saying I agreed with what she did, just that she recognised the need for change in the UK and it's position in the world

[Tichtheid]

An article in the Torygraph claims that after independence Scots would no longer be able to order hampers from Fortnam & Masons, just as has happened to the poor souls in Northern Ireland.

That’s the baw burst then

[Blackmac]

An article in the Torygraph claims that after independence Scots would no longer be able to order hampers from Fortnam & Masons, just as has happened to the poor souls in Northern Ireland.

That’s the baw burst then

It looked like a tongue in cheek ending to an article highlighting the issues we would have importing fresh produce from England. We'll ignore that part though.

[Blackmac]

What's everyone's views on SNP tactics here?

It sounds unlikely the UK government will provide an S30 like the Edinburgh Agreement that governed the 2014 referendum. I can't imagine that against that constitutional backdrop the Supreme Court will then rule in favour of the Scottish Government and say a legal referendum can be held without the UK Government's consent.

So is the plan essentially to let this play out but then get independence through winning the next UK General Election in Scotland on a platform that is exclusively 'if you vote for us, we'll declare independence'?

And for the doubters or noobs, they'll still have my vote - I'm so utterly fed up with anything UK I'd probably vote for independence if it came with mandatory shit-eating. Better that than contribute to a neo-fascist failed state. I apologise to people who rely on ferries to get off their Western Isles.

I think the plan is to demonstrate how Scotland doesn't get to decide its own future, either in law or in politics, and then play the 'what is the democratic route to independence?' card over and over again.

Yeah. I get the feeling that Sturgeon's heart is not really in it. She knows it's doomed to failure but has to be seen to be at least attempting to move things forward. I wouldn't be that surprised to see he throw her hands in the air and say "fuck it, I've done all I can" before handing over the reigns to someone else.

[Tichtheid]

An article in the Torygraph claims that after independence Scots would no longer be able to order hampers from Fortnam & Masons, just as has happened to the poor souls in Northern Ireland.

That’s the baw burst then

It looked like a tongue in cheek ending to an article highlighting the issues we would have importing fresh produce from England. We'll ignore that part though.

This is going to be a long haul, we're all going to need a sense of humour and a large mound of salt, to be taken a pinch at a time.

Having said that, the article I read had that titbit in the middle of a comparison with the NI protocol and exaggerated, tongue in cheek if you like, projections of what an independent Scotland might look like -

Sassenach racing pigeons would be frisked by unsmiling border guards because of EU animal health rules. And English racehorses would face new bureaucratic hurdles to clear before they could compete in independent Scotland.

(nice little play on racehorses and hurdles, though)

- in other words the kind of problems the UK has shot itself in the foot with as a result of Brexit, which is not explicitly mentioned in the article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -scotland/

[Insane_Homer]

Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?

My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?

My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.

My great great great grandfather was recorded as the Hotel Keeper of the Queens Hotel in Lerwick (Shetlands) in 1881, which still exists!

[Tichtheid]

Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?

My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?

My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.

My great great great grandfather was recorded as the Hotel Keeper of the Queens Hotel in Lerwick (Shetlands) in 1881, which still exists!

The only reference I have is to British passports, some of the Kiwis I worked with had a British passport due to Grandparents being citizens, but I haven't heard of Great Grandparents being a qualification.

Others may know differently, it may be that your Grandfather qualifies depending on dates and which part of South Africa he was born in