What's going on in Ukraine?

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https://actualcontrol.substack.com/p/th ... in-makariv

[tabascoboy]

Hey they haven't even got started yet

[fishfoodie]

I know the French Air Force has missiles that can pierce the tarmac and blow in depth, which results in the tarmac looking pl, but as soon as you drove through, the tarmac collapses and the vehicle gets stuck in a hole, disabling the runway/road for a while.

It's massive cost in either a strategic missile or risking a couple of planes, just to cause a temporary inconvenience to a heavily defended bridge.

Also, it's a dual bridge with a roadway and a rail line next to it. You'll have to take out both.

Any X-Class subs left over

Just need something you can pack a lot of explosives in, & remote control.

[tabascoboy]

Honestly while it would be of great symbolic value, I think that going after the Black Sea Fleet would be of greater value currently although not much easier.

[petej]

I do feel like they will keep trying to attack regardless of actual soldier numbers or equipment.

[Flockwitt]

Not sure quite how feasible this is, to do significant damage and if so what Russia would do in response. Would be useful psy-ops to worry those in Crimea though about not being able to exit to Russia and it becoming a hot zone

N.B. Paywalled article, this is all I have access to

Bomb Russia’s bridge to Crimea, Ukraine urged
Ex-Nato commander says missile strike would deal a huge blow

Ukraine could deal a devastating blow to the Kremlin by attacking the Kerch Strait bridge, which links mainland Russia with Crimea, using newly supplied Harpoon missiles, a former Nato commander has told The Times.

General Philip Breedlove, who was supreme allied commander for Europe from 2013 to 2016, said an attack on the bridge was justified by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from all quarters. “Kerch bridge is a legitimate target,” he said.

Breedlove’s support for such an attack came as Russia launched airstrikes on the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. Oleksandr Goncharenko, the mayor, said there had been casualties and advised all residents to stay in shelters. The city of Sloviansk, near Kramatorsk, also came under attack.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut- ... -qh93slq0k

Yeah, everything I've seen and read about this came to the same conclusion:
a.) It is a very good military target, but b.) it is heavily defended and c.) bridges are actually very difficult targets to knock out.

Maybe with a fuckton of guided missiles it would doable, but it is heavily defended by Russian AA assets. The Ruskies have also recently parked a barge of some kind close-by full of some kind of reflective material, ostensibly to "attract" any infra-red guided munitions. The general consensus however is that it's a very desperate play as any missiles that do get used will likely be laser or GPS guided anyway.

Then there is the issue of a bridges being engineered to withstand quite a lot. Any damage caused by a missile strike or bombardment is likely to be reparable. It's why, to properly blow a bridge, they typically have to be loaded with explosives at key load points by sappers. Now, I don't want to claim to know more than General Philip Breedlove (I know I don't), so I'd be very curious what kind of strike he had in mind to achieve such a mission.

If you read the Dambusters book and the tallboys they used to destroy bridges you get an idea of this. Before the development of the tallboy bridges were untouchable by conventional bombs. Basically you need effectively a massive bunker busting munition, something that can penetrate the ground and blow out the foundations. One good strike will do it actually with the correct weapon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tallboy_(bomb)

[Flockwitt]

This is not so good. There's been several comments on the fact Ukraine tried to hold on to Severodenetsk for too long. The so called trap really wasn't worth it, effectively becoming Ukraine's own Verdun. As mentioned, made good headlines but infantry fighting back and forth in a city isn't what it's actually about militarily. Once the retreat from the fortified hills behind was being compromised they should have got out and I'll believe this video is genuine enough though I dare say it's a collection from around the Donbas, not just from Lisichansk.

https://twitter.com/ParabellumSRB/statu ... 5735122944

[Niegs]

This is not so good. There's been several comments on the fact Ukraine tried to hold on to Severodenetsk for too long. The so called trap really wasn't worth it, effectively becoming Ukraine's own Verdun. As mentioned, made good headlines but infantry fighting back and forth in a city isn't what it's actually about militarily. Once the retreat from the fortified hills behind was being compromised they should have got out and I'll believe this video is genuine enough though I dare say it's a collection from around the Donbas, not just from Lisichansk.

https://twitter.com/ParabellumSRB/statu ... 5735122944

Already got the museum placards up. Maybe damaged and abandoned equipment that's now unusable?

[Flockwitt]

This is not so good. There's been several comments on the fact Ukraine tried to hold on to Severodenetsk for too long. The so called trap really wasn't worth it, effectively becoming Ukraine's own Verdun. As mentioned, made good headlines but infantry fighting back and forth in a city isn't what it's actually about militarily. Once the retreat from the fortified hills behind was being compromised they should have got out and I'll believe this video is genuine enough though I dare say it's a collection from around the Donbas, not just from Lisichansk.

https://twitter.com/ParabellumSRB/statu ... 5735122944

Already got the museum placards up. Maybe damaged and abandoned equipment that's now unusable?

A bit of everything I'd suggest. But there were reliable commentators stating how the attempts to get an armoured column out of Lisichansk failed in the final days. The Ukrainians soldiers for the most part escaped which is the most important point of course, still they had to leave behind a fair chunk of gear I'd suggest.

[Flockwitt]

Good interview here. Very telling comments on the quality of the various Russian units. That's sergeant, not surgeon, in case the initial accent catches you out like it did me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt6TEsdXd1U

[tabascoboy]

The longer this goes on, the more Russia is wisening up

[Flockwitt]

Going to be an integral part of warfare going forward. You see the new state-of-the-art Panther tanks of Rienmetal's that have 4 on-board UAVs and the ability to include an operator who is dedicated to non-main gun weapon systems.

[tabascoboy]

More UA attacks on RU ammo dumps, this Russian commentator is not impressed ( machine TL, open in new tab for full size )

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[tabascoboy]

And from the same source, presumably due to the feud over oil transportation. Suspect the central Asian nations will lean more towards China now and feel they can stand up to Russian pressure more.



also

[Hellraiser]

This is not so good. There's been several comments on the fact Ukraine tried to hold on to Severodenetsk for too long. The so called trap really wasn't worth it, effectively becoming Ukraine's own Verdun. As mentioned, made good headlines but infantry fighting back and forth in a city isn't what it's actually about militarily. Once the retreat from the fortified hills behind was being compromised they should have got out and I'll believe this video is genuine enough though I dare say it's a collection from around the Donbas, not just from Lisichansk.

https://twitter.com/ParabellumSRB/statu ... 5735122944

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[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Read the linked article which has more analysis and embedded images

Ukraine has claimed that Russia is now using its S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles to attack land targets in Ukraine.

The assertion, from the governor of the Mykolaiv Oblast, in southern Ukraine, suggests that Russia’s shortage of standoff weapons to attack land targets may well be worse than thought. The S-300 apparently does possess a little-known surface-to-surface capability.

Using the Telegram instant messaging service, Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, introduced the claim about the S-300, without specifying which versions are being used. Russia operates both the S-300P series on 8x8 wheeled chassis and the S-300V that uses a tracked chassis, and which offers an improved anti-ballistic missile capability. Both S-300P and S-300V series have been used by Russia (and also by Ukraine) in the Ukrainian war. These systems can fire ar variety of missiles.


Kim says that 12 missiles were fired by S-300s in a land attack role, targeting Mykolaiv Oblast, but he also notes that, despite the missiles being retrofitted with GPS guidance, they remain inaccurate.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... e-official

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[Flockwitt]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/9/7357244/

Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister, is calling on residents of the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to evacuate by all possible means.

Seems like Ukraine is setting up for a counter-offensive.

[Niegs]

Below that post... the one in the glasses ...

[tabascoboy]

Removal of RU forces and equipment on Snake Island more than just symbolic

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[tabascoboy]

Would like to see this confirmed



Meanwhile "liberation" activities in Donetsk region using low precision missile strikes continue

[petej]

Removal of RU forces and equipment on Snake Island more than just symbolic

They are repairing some rail links as well.

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[yermum]

Russian arty battery getting absolutely fucking wrecked

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Italian PzH 2000s in the Brenner Pass on the way to Germany.

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The Swiss have blocked a German-owned munitions works in Switzerland from producing 35mm Oerlikon rounds for the Gepard. They also blocked the importation of rounds from the Brazilian military. The Germans have found another manufacturer in Norway who will produce them and the first Gepards should be handed over to Ukraine this month with around 60k rounds which should soon increase.

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This is a very interesting read.

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Zelensky has just ordered the UAF to liberate southern Ukraine.

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