What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

https://wartranslated.com/russians-unde ... -russians/

The Russians under attack by the Russians?

We spoke about the difference between worldviews of the supporters of the “federal” approach to the Russian state pursued by existing authorities, and the “true” Russians (imperialists, chauvinists) who are disgruntled by the Russian Federation’s lacklustre performance in the war with Ukraine.

Just recently we shared a post where a representative of the latter group slammed the existing state building efforts in the Russian Federation, claiming it to be a simulation that uses the image of a “true” ethnic Russian state for its own selfish purposes.

It appears as if the rift between the two approaches is widening. Prevented from building the “Russian World” from the rubble of the 2014-2015 war in the Donbas, the “true Russians” were once again let down in 2022 when the Russian Federation blew another chance to restore the “historical justice” in the troubled territories of “Novorossiya”. Now, these “true Russians” are under attack.

A few days ago the pro-Russian internet space blew up after the news came through about arrest by the Russian security services in Melitopol of Lt. Colonel Alexey Selivanov, who acts as a Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the occupied Zaporizhye region. Selivanov was known for supporting the pro-Russian movements during the events of 2014 whilst working in the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs. He switched sides and was not liked by the Ukrainian authorities.

Described to be a staunch supporter of the “Russian World”, a monarchist, a person who raised Russian flags over “liberated” towns, Selivanov is an important figure. His arrest by the Russian services led to an uproar. Confused, pro-Russian sources put blame on “Ukrainian forces in Moscow”, on “crooked policemen who want him sacked and get him out of the way of their dealings”, and other reasons. We don’t know exactly what happened with Selivanov. One way or another, he hasn’t been heard from for a week, and Russians see this arrest as a direct attack on their movement.

No less “outrageous” is the visit of two policemen in Moscow to the official residence of the “LPR” blogger Murz whose criticisms of the way the special operation is conducted were shared and translated here on a number of occasions. Murz is currently in the Donbas helping with supplying pro-Russian forces with UAVs, he is an active supporter of the “Russian World” movement since early 2000’s, and a fairly close acquaintance of Igor Girkin. At the very least, they share mutual respect, which is not common for Girkin.

Luckily for Murz he was not in Moscow, otherwise there is a chance he would have already been behind the bars, which certainly wouldn’t be liked by his colleagues. Yet these “true Russians”, to whom Murz belongs to, are unlikely to be able to enjoy the same safety as before going forward.

There is no evidence to say there is a crackdown of the Russian authorities on all the outliers representing the project “Russian World” in its most radical form, that puts a clear boundary between them and the official position. There is no evidence there is any link between the arrest of Selivanov and a visit to Mr. Murz, either. Yet this demonstrates a rift which is likely to continue expanding as the prospects of the Russian success of the special military operation in Ukraine dwindle. With time, and especially in circumstances of a successful counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces, criticisms of the authorities might start coming from all kinds of unexpected corners, and perhaps even from the most loyal supporters of the authorities.

[Biffer]

Does anyone think the former Chief of Defence Staff, summarises the Ukraine war accurately here? That Russia are in Ukraine to stay? At least in the east and south?

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

[tabascoboy]

Thread unroll at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 18336.html

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

[PornDog]

Thread unroll at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 18336.html

Was this a discussion between LBJ and McNamara?

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Hide in the forest, still get found and wrecked

[Grandpa]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

[fishfoodie]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

[Grandpa]

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

[fishfoodie]

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

[TheFrog]

Not sure this is much shelter against shelling...

But hats off to the guys, they are brave and contribute to the war effort by going out in the fields and delivering grain for the country.

[tabascoboy]

Not sure where I found the picture now, but the Russians successfully demilitarised and denazified a UA combine harvester recently. Add to that the risk of unexploded ordinance and land mines and you have to be more than a little brave to be out in the fields

[Uncle fester]

Deal signed to get Ukrainian wheat moving.

Will the Russians stick to it?

[yermum]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

[Grandpa]

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

I hope you are right. I just find it amazing that someone with that much knowledge and experience, would be so out of touch with what is actually happening. Thankfully he's an ex..

[fishfoodie]

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

I hope you are right. I just find it amazing that someone with that much knowledge and experience, would be so out of touch with what is actually happening. Thankfully he's an ex..

Like many of his generation be believed in, & expected the 8ft Bear, & still hasn't come to terms with the hamster that has arrived instead.

[yermum]

Also a big scary Bear means a potential return to the good old days of the Cold war when the HMAF were much much bigger.

Don't need to increase the size of the Armed forces for hamster fighting.

In the early days of the Ukraine war Lord Dannett was calling for Nato to get involved with a no fly zone he is very much a hawk.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

If their behaviour to date is any guide, they are probably waiting for the ships to leave laden with produce and then sink them.

[Flockwitt]

Command pots eh? What's next, logistics pans?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

If their behaviour to date is any guide, they are probably waiting for the ships to leave laden with produce and then sink them.

Told ya.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... dApp_Other

[tabascoboy]

You just know that the Russian will claim Ukraine used the cover of the agreement to use the port area for military storage and so it was a "legitimate target", though not until after they deny the attack happened of course and then it happened but it was UA that launched the missiles themselves...

[petej]

You just know that the Russian will claim Ukraine used the cover of the agreement to use the port area for military storage and so it was a "legitimate target", though not until after they deny the attack happened of course and then it happened but it was UA that launched the missiles themselves...

Traditional disinformation nonsense. Hopefully, various Russian officials and western quislings get hammered with dog memes.

[tabascoboy]

And thus begins the denial phase...



Wonder if someone, somewhere at an airbase or on a warship "didn't get the memo"

[Flockwitt]

Somebody didn't get the memo

[Flockwitt]

Yum.

Check out Denys' latest and the bridge they took out at Darivka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdKu2FrQzLw

[Flockwitt]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

[Plim]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

And the rouble’s at an 8 year high.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

And the rouble’s at an 8 year high.

Which is completely meaningless as it only has that nominal value due to unsustainable levels of government intervention and it can't be spent outside Russia.

[AD345]

[tabascoboy]

And thus begins the denial phase...



Wonder if someone, somewhere at an airbase or on a warship "didn't get the memo"

And as usual onto stage 2 after the denial...

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova: “Russian forces had hit a Ukrainian military boat in the port of Odesa in Ukraine with high-precision missiles.”

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]