What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[TB63]

[Hellraiser]

Anyone here with a Twitter account report this immediately.

[Uncle fester]

‘Don’t worry about the nukes, they probably wouldn’t work anyway’ is a hell of a gamble, though I suppose if you’re wrong none of us would be around to point it out anyway

Agreed but using them would be in keeping with their scorched earth policy. If they can't have it, let Ukraine rule over an irradiated wasteland!

[Hellraiser]

‘Don’t worry about the nukes, they probably wouldn’t work anyway’ is a hell of a gamble, though I suppose if you’re wrong none of us would be around to point it out anyway

Agreed but using them would be in keeping with their scorched earth policy. If they can't have it, let Ukraine rule over an irradiated wasteland!

Except for the whole prevailing winds problem.

[Uncle fester]

Anyone here with a Twitter account report this immediately.

[Uncle fester]

‘Don’t worry about the nukes, they probably wouldn’t work anyway’ is a hell of a gamble, though I suppose if you’re wrong none of us would be around to point it out anyway

Agreed but using them would be in keeping with their scorched earth policy. If they can't have it, let Ukraine rule over an irradiated wasteland!

Except for the whole prevailing winds problem.

What direction? Unless the fallout lands in Moscow, Russians won't give a shite.

[Hellraiser]

Agreed but using them would be in keeping with their scorched earth policy. If they can't have it, let Ukraine rule over an irradiated wasteland!

Except for the whole prevailing winds problem.

What direction? Unless the fallout lands in Moscow, Russians won't give a shite.

Prevailing winds are west to east. Too close for comfort.

[Hellraiser]

Russian efforts to embed its occupation of southern Ukraine are being undermined by the population’s growing refusal to accept employment at key facilities, including banks, hospitals and heavy industry.

As Kyiv stepped up its efforts to retake the key city of Kherson as part of a long-awaited counter-offensive, evidence is emerging of the Kremlin’s faltering attempts to normalise life in a region which it is seeking to formally annex as part of Russia.

Moscow last month announced it had opened its first branches of the state-owned Promsvyazbank in the Kherson and neighbouring Zaporizhzhia regions as part of a “Russification” process which includes requiring Ukrainians to switch from using Kyiv’s hryvnia currency to the Russian ruble.

But Ukrainian officials claimed on Thursday that the three bank branches are currently able to offer only a partial service after locals refused to accept jobs with the company.

The National Resistance Centre (NRC), which coordinates partisan activity in occupied territory, said the problems at the bank branches in Kherson were part of a wider problem which is forcing the puppet administration put in place by the Kremlin to abandon plans to accept only Russian qualifications and permits.

The NRC said: “It should be noted that the shortage of workers in the occupied territories due to the reluctance of locals to cooperate forced the Russians to recognise Ukrainian qualification certificates and work [permits].”

A charity operating in Crimea, the region annexed by Moscow in 2014, and southern Ukraine earlier this month said it had evidence of a “massive” boycott by doctors in the Kherson region.

Crimea SOS said medics were applying en masse for extended leave or simply resigning from their jobs to avoid cooperating with the Russian military while at the same time many pharmacies in Kherson were closed, creating a black market in medications brought in from Russia. Deny Savchenko, head of the charity, said: “Doctors in Kherson are massively refusing to cooperate with the occupiers.”

Similar issues also appear to be affecting heavy industry in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian media reported last month that attempts by Russia to reopen a major iron ore works in Zaporizhzhia floundered after employees refused to sign contracts offering work at 60 per cent of their previous wage.

In the devastated city of Mariupol, an adviser to its exiled Ukrainian mayor this week insisted staff at a major steel work were staging a “silent rebellion”. Writing on the Telegram social media site, Petro Andriushchenko said: “At the Illich Steel and Iron Works, workers staged a silent rebellion, refusing to go into the [factory].”

The boycotts have provoked a blame game between Moscow and Kyiv over the motivation behind the refusal to work. A Moscow-appointed official in Kherson has previously claimed that many Ukrainian personnel are staying away because of a threat from Kyiv of prosecutions for anyone found to be collaborating with the occupying forces.

Kirill Stremousov, who is deputy head of the Kremlin-backed administration in Kherson and is wanted for treason by Kyiv, claimed staff were “living in fear” of proceedings. The official on Thursday doubled down on promises to hold a referendum on secession from Ukraine, telling Russian media: “I hope that in the near future already we will become a full-fledged territorial entity of the Russian Federation.”

For its part, Ukraine has insisted that civil disobedience is motivated by disdain for the occupying forces. The NRC said: “Non-violent resistance in the temporarily occupied territories is developing exponentially. People have mastered various methods of resistance, including silent refusal to work in seized enterprises.”

Experts said that the intensity of subversive action against the Russians in southern Ukraine is in part dependent on the perceived likelihood of success for Kyiv in seizing back territory, in particular around Kherson City where Ukrainian forces succeeded on Thursday in destroying the city’s sole road bridge across the Dnipro river. Kyiv said the strike using the American HIMARS missile system would hobble the Kremlin’s efforts to resupply its troops, though Moscow insisted it could instead use ferry routes and a railway bridge.

Professor Alexander Motyl, a Ukraine specialist at Rutgers University – Newark, told i: “Resistance will be high and collaboration low if the population expects Ukrainian armed forces to advance, as they currently do. Increased Russian repression will only increase resistance under such conditions.”

Kherson is a key strategic asset for both sides in the war, with Russia holding it as a gateway for attacks towards the vital port of Odesa and Ukraine seeking its recapture as a route towards Crimea and the east of the country.

Kyiv has been quietly waging a partisan campaign in occupied southern cities such as Kherson and Melitopol, targeting Moscow-appointed officials. In the latest attack, Ukraine claimed this week that it had targeted two men recruited to work for the Russian-led police force in Kherson City, killing one and injuring another in an attack on a marked police car.

[MungoMan]

Wonder if the first part of this is true, and the rumours of RU forces buying inflatables too, which is kind of funny;

Yes. An amphibous assault by troops on lilos would be worth the odd snigger or three.

[Guy Smiley]

Wonder if the first part of this is true, and the rumours of RU forces buying inflatables too, which is kind of funny;

Yes. An amphibous assault by troops on lilos would be worth the odd snigger or three.

[Flockwitt]

This is actually the bees knees were it not for the schedule.

[tabascoboy]

Wonder if the first part of this is true, and the rumours of RU forces buying inflatables too, which is kind of funny;

Yes. An amphibous assault by troops on lilos would be worth the odd snigger or three.

I was thinking more of the RU forces trying to escape the city by having to cross the river on inflatable mattresses...

[Flockwitt]

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

Originally I thought the same, but now I'm not so sure. If the bridge gets cut, the Russian's are going to really struggle to supply any forces there by sea. The air fields and missile bases on the peninsular are all going to go up in smoke. If it wasn't for the local population the place could end up a Snake Island mark II.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Why Putin fights
Understanding the imperatives of regime security

Sam Greene
Jul 29

In a prominent and controversial essay, Sam Charap and Jeremy Shapiro argue correctly that Western supporters of Ukraine cannot simultaneously seek victory and de-escalation. But because they misunderstand the logic that led Russia to war, their proposed remedy — negotiations — will do more harm than good.

Full article: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/why-pu ... s?sort=new

and a series of tweets linked to within that article

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[petej]

Why Putin fights
Understanding the imperatives of regime security

Sam Greene
Jul 29

In a prominent and controversial essay, Sam Charap and Jeremy Shapiro argue correctly that Western supporters of Ukraine cannot simultaneously seek victory and de-escalation. But because they misunderstand the logic that led Russia to war, their proposed remedy — negotiations — will do more harm than good.

Full article: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/why-pu ... s?sort=new

and a series of tweets linked to within that article

The only way you can descalate is by seeking victory as Russia/putin will push and push until you push back. Whenever you don't push back putin will proceed. Ukrainians didn't want this war escalating as it has this year (this war started in 2014).

[petej]

[tabascoboy]

Another twitter account analysis of the PoW massacre - read the whole "unrolled" article at this link as it has supporting images as evidence: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1553 ... 10432.html

Can't be substantiated of course but is a well thought out theory

[Hellraiser]

105 KIA, 7 tanks, 1 howitzer, 2 SPGs, 17 armoured and other military vehicles.

[The Druid]

Looks like the Uk liberation of Kherson is not going to happen soon according to Denys.

[Flockwitt]

Looks like the Uk liberation of Kherson is not going to happen soon according to Denys.

It's to be expected. The best estimates I saw were end of August, early September. No easy matter get 100,000s of troops into action especially given the disparate training from the UK and elsewhere. They'll want the tanks that are coming in now, at least 250+ from various sources which they've got to get organised. And who knows just what's going to eventuate. A lot of other issues here.

[AD345]

Inside Kherson

Ukraine’s shadow army resisting Russian occupation
Ukraine World
Reading 14 min Published by July 30, 2022

As Ukraine’s military steps up its strikes on Kherson, hinting at a new offensive to recapture the region, there is another force working alongside. They are Ukraine’s shadow army, a network of agents and informers who operate behind enemy lines.

Our journey to meet the resistance fighters takes us through a landscape of sunflower yellow and sky blue to Mykolaiv. The first major town on Ukrainian-controlled territory west of Kherson, it has become the partisans’ headquarters on the southern front.

Driving through military checkpoints, we pass giant billboards showing a faceless, hooded figure alongside a warning: “Kherson: The partisans see everything.” The image is designed to make the region’s Russian occupiers nervous and boost the morale of those trapped under their rule.


“The resistance is not one group, it’s total resistance,” the man standing in front of me insists, his voice slightly muffled by a black mask he’s pulled up from his neck so I can’t see his face as we film him, in a room I can’t describe so that neither can be found.

I’ll call him Sasha.

Shortly before this war, Ukraine bolstered its Special Forces in part to build and manage a resistance movement. It even published a PDF booklet on how to be a good partisan, with instructions on such subversive acts as slashing the tyres of the occupier, adding sugar to petrol tanks or refusing to follow orders at work. “Be grumpy,” is one suggestion.

But Sasha’s team of informers have a more active role: tracking Russian troop movements inside Kherson.

“Say yesterday we saw a new target, then we send that to the military and in a day or two it’s gone,” he says, as we scroll through some of the many videos he’s sent from the neighbouring region each day. One is from a man who drove past a military base and filmed Russian vehicles, another is from CCTV footage as Russian trucks pass by, daubed with their giant Z war-marks.

Sasha describes his “agents” as Ukrainians “who have not lost hope in victory and want our country to be freed”.

“Of course they’re afraid,” he says. “But serving their country is more important.”

Working alongside Sasha are a team who fly drones into Kherson to spot targets for the military. Civilians, not soldiers, all are volunteers and they fundraise on social media to pay for their expensive kit.

The man in charge cultivated decorative plants before the war, but Serhii tells me he joined the fight to free the south after seeing the bodies of civilians executed in Bucha during the Russian occupation there. “I couldn’t just stay at home after that,” he says. “I didn’t know what else I could do or think of, while this war is going on.”

The task he chose instead is extremely dangerous. His team of four get shelled by the Russians every single time they go out, though no-one has been killed. “I know to some extent it’s a matter of chance,” Serhii shrugs, and breaks into a soft smile. “But at least if it happens to me, then I will know it was for a cause.”


The partisans are fighting to prevent Russia’s hold over Kherson becoming permanent: to block a referendum that Moscow appears to be planning to stage. Russia has already introduced the rouble and its own mobile phone networks to the region and is pumping its propaganda from state-run TV channels into Ukrainian homes. Local journalists have either fled, or gone to ground.

The acting head of the region, Dmytro Butrii, now exiled to Mykolaiv and a small back office protected by sandbags, insists that a vote on joining Russia would be a sham, a “total fake” and unrecognised by any “civilised” government.

These days, that wouldn’t matter much to Moscow.

For Russia, the region is strategic: it’s the source of water for Crimea, which it annexed illegally in 2014, and the last section of a much-discussed ‘land bridge’, or stretch of territory that links Russia-proper to the peninsula.


Some locals have switched sides to help the Russians. So Sasha’s team are building a database of those “collaborators”, using information from the inside. “It’s so that no one can claim later that they were with the resistance,” he explains.

But it’s also for intimidation. Partisans are encouraged to stick threatening posters outside the collaborators’ homes with designs that include the person’s face and a coffin, or a “Wanted” poster offering big rewards for their death. The activists then photograph the results to send to Sasha.

“There’s a lot of graffiti. People write things like ‘stuff your referendum’ as well as sticking up their posters,” Sasha describes his latest reports from Kherson. “It shows how many people are not afraid: in a city with military patrols everywhere, they manage to print leaflets then walk round with glue when they could be stopped at any moment and things would end very badly.”

There has been a spate of assassination attempts against those who’ve joined the Russians. A blogger was shot, an official in the Russian-installed administration was killed and others have been injured in car bombs. The most prominent figures to switch sides now wear body armour as a matter of course. The men I meet all say they have nothing to do with the attacks, but they have no sympathy either.

“Other than the word traitor and scum, I have no other words for them,” Sasha shrugs. “They’re our enemy.”


Vladimir Putin still claims his invasion of Ukraine is a “liberation” operation but in Kherson, his troops rule through force and fear.

Since Russian forces occupied the region in March, hundreds of people have been detained, many of them tortured. Some have disappeared, unheard of for weeks. Others have been discovered dead or returned to their relatives from Russian custody in body bags.

Sources inside the city describe soldiers patrolling the streets and buses stopped at random for everyone inside to be checked. The slightest hint of support for Ukrainian rule, as little as a message or photo on your phone, can get you arrested.

Every time Oleh smiles in the mirror, the gaps in place of his teeth are a reminder of the beatings he endured by his Russian interrogators. He tells me they also broke seven ribs – three still haven’t mended. His name is not really Oleh, but he’s asked me not to reveal his identity.

A member of the resistance, he witnessed the torture of another prisoner, Denys Mironov, who then died in Russian custody.


Oleh talks in chilling detail about what happened after 27 March when he and Denys were snatched from the street: he describes constant beatings in the first hours involving electric shock, suffocation and death threats. He’s sure his interrogators were from the FSB security service.

At some point, his spirits fell so low that he contemplated ending his life, even attacking a guard so they would shoot him.

“They were looking for Nazis, so they beat me because I was bald. They reckoned they’d caught a damn Nazi,” he answers, when I ask what information his captors had wanted. “When they stripped me, they saw I had Simpsons underpants so they said I was an American agent and punished me for that.”

A month earlier, when the Russians invaded, Oleh and Denys had joined the territorial defence, Ukraine’s volunteer army. But much of the military melted away with the first explosions and Kherson’s remaining forces were quickly overwhelmed. So the men became partisans, working against the Russians from the inside.

“We got information on where their forces were based, and when they were on the move, and we passed that on to the military,” Oleh explains, adding that he was involved in a lot more activity that he can’t talk about.

Another partisan I met described helping Ukrainian forces escape in boats across the Dnipro when they were surrounded – and stealing weapons from the Russians. “I’ll tell you the rest when we win,” he laughs when I press him for more.

Denys, a 43-year-old with a wife and son – and a fruit and veg business before the war – began driving a bread van around Kherson, handing out food and scouting for intelligence as he went. He and Oleh were also collecting weapons, preparing to join the battle to liberate Kherson as soon as Ukraine launched the counter-offensive that everyone expected.

Instead, the two men were detained and tortured.

I asked Russia’s FSB to explain what happened to these men and others. They didn’t respond.

It was the middle of the first night before Oleh saw Denys again, and by then he could barely walk and was struggling for breath. Even so, the guards beat him some more. “They hit him in the groin, then the face, then two men with batons took down his trousers and started to beat him near his kidneys,” Oleh says, recalling how the tape holding a bag over his own head had worked loose enough for him to see.

“It was clear his lungs had been punctured and he’d been really badly hurt,” he says. “But if he’d been helped in time, his death could have been avoided. It’s awful.”

On 18 April the men were transferred to a facility in Crimea and the next day, Denys was finally taken to a military hospital where Oleh was sure he would recover.

The first Denys Mironov’s family knew of his death was over a month later, when he was returned to Ukraine as part of a body swap.

Many people left Kherson for safety soon after the Russians seized control. The government in Kyiv recently urged others to evacuate, warning that a military operation to retake the region was imminent.

But getting out isn’t easy.

Russian officials limit the number of vehicles crossing the frontline and only permit one route into Ukrainian-controlled areas, the road that heads north to Zaporizhzhia. Multiple military checkpoints on the way make it a no-go for Ukrainian men of fighting age. Even women and children face waiting weeks for places on free evacuation buses, or an exorbitant fee for a place in a private car.

But hundreds still flee each day, tumbling off buses or unfolding themselves from crowded, stuffy cars just before dusk into a supermarket car park that doubles as a reception area for those forced into exile in their own country. The adults look exhausted, the children’s smiles are timid, as if they’re not quite sure whether they’re safe yet. Steam gushes from beneath the bonnet of a blue Lada like it’s about to explode. After security checks, volunteers offer food and clothes and, for some, there are tearful reunions with waiting relatives.


We can’t travel into Kherson now it’s occupied, but the mood in this crowd reveals plenty about life there. Even on Ukrainian-controlled soil, people are wary of what they say. “Will the Russians see this?” some of the new arrivals want to know before I film or even record them speaking. Others shake their heads as I approach, and turn away from my microphone.

“It’s tough there, the Russians are everywhere,” Alexandra tells me, bouncing baby Nastya on her knee in the back of a car. Inside the aid tent an older woman is standing with two carrier bags at her feet looking lost and lonely. Struggling with tears, Svitlana tells me she’s fled Kherson because her nerves are in shreds but her husband has refused to come with her. “He said he’s waiting for the Ukrainian army to come and liberate us,” she says.

As night begins to fall, and more vehicles pull in, a man admits that his own family are running from more than the missiles. “We know people are disappearing, it’s true,” he tells me, without giving his name. “In Kherson, you don’t go out in the evening.”


The danger from shelling has increased in recent days, on both sides of the southern frontline.

In Mykolaiv the days usually start with explosions from 4am: down south, the Russian launch sites are so close that the warning siren only goes off after the first missile hits. One morning, sheltering in our hotel basement, I counted at least 20 explosions in the city, some close enough to shake the building. Once the curfew lifted, we found a nearby school in ruins, the playground swings blanketed in the thick grey dust of the collapsed sports hall.


But Ukrainian attacks have also increased, both in number and impact, as more powerful weapons supplied by the West have made it to the region and are making a difference. Residents in Kherson city have recorded multiple strikes on Russian ammunition depots. Bridges across the Dnipro, including the Antonivskiy, have also been hit multiple times, disrupting Russian supply lines.

The push to retake Kherson could be approaching.

Sasha believes many of those who have remained in the city are ready to stay and fight; those I’ve spoken to say support for Russian rule is minimal and the searches, detentions and beatings in recent months have shrunk that still further.

“When the army starts to invade, then people will be ready and will help,” Sasha says.

After his own brutal experience in Russian custody, Oleh is already back on the southern front to fight for his hometown, alongside Ukraine’s partisan army.

“They can take the land, but they can’t take the people,” is how he puts it. “The Russians will never be safe in Kherson, because the people didn’t want them there. They don’t like them. They won’t accept them.”

https://www.24talker.com/news/world/ukr ... ccupation/

[fishfoodie]

Looks like the Uk liberation of Kherson is not going to happen soon according to Denys.

I'd nearly prefer to see the Ukrainians dummy a full assault on Kherson, & draw in the Orcs, & then liberate Mariupol , while they were looking the other way !

It would further damage the Orcs morale; & show the quislings how fucked they were.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in occupied Crimea was attacked by a drone. 5 casualties reported. Annual "Navy Day" celebrations/parade scheduled for July 31st in Sevastopol cancelled.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

Igal Levin, an Israeli-Ukrainian defense expert, believes the Russian goal behind the latest incidents could be fostering hatred and anger among the Ukrainian military against potential Russian prisoners of war.

"(Russians) are experiencing a complicated situation in Kherson," the expert said. "And their military grouping under blockade threat could potentially surrender. Russia is trying hard to anger (Ukrainian) soldiers and intimidate their own soldiers so that the former would not take prisoners and the latter would not even think of surrendering.”

“Again, this is not something new,” he added. “Russians have done it during their punitive operations in Ichkeriya (Chechnya)."

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in occupied Crimea was attacked by a drone. 5 casualties reported. Annual "Navy Day" celebrations/parade scheduled for July 31st in Sevastopol cancelled.

Been thinking a bit about this, and the general comments on the thread about Crimea.

My position was that the US/UK/EU/NATO, clearly put Crimea in a separate category (many examples) to Donbas. Before the Russia''s 2022 full scale invasion it was possible to imagine a negotiated outcome which would leave Russia with some form of partial sovereignty over Crimea (basing rights, actual land, some form of sharing it), that wasn't the case with Donbas. There had also been no ongoing fighting contesting Crimea's status, which was a big part of why the international community treated it differently.

In the early part of this phase of the conflict, that basically all still held up. I'm not sure it does anymore though.

Because before this war most experts thought a large scale ground/air war in Europe between large conventional military formations, was impossible. Then it happened and most experts thought Ukraine would be flattened in days/weeks. But then Ukraine weren't flattened and the full might of Russia was strategically defeated/forced back/retreated whatever you want to term it. This creates a problem though, because Russia under Putin is committed to attacking NATO members. If Ukraine proves successful for Russia (it clearly won't be now) then next is probably a warmup against Moldova and then the attack against a NATO member Baltics/Poland/Finland. We now know what happens if Russia attempted that, their entire conventional military will be destroyed within a few months at most by NATO. Which is also kind of bad, because that'll leave Russia only their nukes which they may use. Because of this the US/UK/EU/NATO has increasingly armed Ukraine to the teeth the longer the conflict has gone on, Ukraine has received more and more expensive/sophisticated/destructive weapons in contrast to 2014 where there was a debate about even sending ATGMs (which weren't sent), this has happened so that Russia is conclusively defeated in Ukraine before anything worse can happen in the future.

I now reckon Russia will be doing well to control any of Crimea by the time this is all over, the longer Russia pursues a military option the worse their position is getting.

[Biffer]

Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in occupied Crimea was attacked by a drone. 5 casualties reported. Annual "Navy Day" celebrations/parade scheduled for July 31st in Sevastopol cancelled.

Been thinking a bit about this, and the general comments on the thread about Crimea.

My position was that the US/UK/EU/NATO, clearly put Crimea in a separate category (many examples) to Donbas. Before the Russia''s 2022 full scale invasion it was possible to imagine a negotiated outcome which would leave Russia with some form of partial sovereignty over Crimea (basing rights, actual land, some form of sharing it), that wasn't the case with Donbas. There had also been no ongoing fighting contesting Crimea's status, which was a big part of why the international community treated it differently.

In the early part of this phase of the conflict, that basically all still held up. I'm not sure it does anymore though.

Because before this war most experts thought a large scale ground/air war in Europe between large conventional military formations, was impossible. Then it happened and most experts thought Ukraine would be flattened in days/weeks. But then Ukraine weren't flattened and the full might of Russia was strategically defeated/forced back/retreated whatever you want to term it. This creates a problem though, because Russia under Putin is committed to attacking NATO members. If Ukraine proves successful for Russia (it clearly won't be now) then next is probably a warmup against Moldova and then the attack against a NATO member Baltics/Poland/Finland. We now know what happens if Russia attempted that, their entire conventional military will be destroyed within a few months at most by NATO. Which is also kind of bad, because that'll leave Russia only their nukes which they may use. Because of this the US/UK/EU/NATO has increasingly armed Ukraine to the teeth the longer the conflict has gone on, Ukraine has received more and more expensive/sophisticated/destructive weapons in contrast to 2014 where there was a debate about even sending ATGMs (which weren't sent), this has happened so that Russia is conclusively defeated in Ukraine before anything worse can happen in the future.

I now reckon Russia will be doing well to control any of Crimea by the time this is all over, the longer Russia pursues a military option the worse their position is getting.

It’s pretty clear that in a conventional war, NATO would annihilate Russia in short order.

Also, there’s a growing view now that the war started in 2014. And it’s the same war.

[petej]

Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in occupied Crimea was attacked by a drone. 5 casualties reported. Annual "Navy Day" celebrations/parade scheduled for July 31st in Sevastopol cancelled.

Been thinking a bit about this, and the general comments on the thread about Crimea.

My position was that the US/UK/EU/NATO, clearly put Crimea in a separate category (many examples) to Donbas. Before the Russia''s 2022 full scale invasion it was possible to imagine a negotiated outcome which would leave Russia with some form of partial sovereignty over Crimea (basing rights, actual land, some form of sharing it), that wasn't the case with Donbas. There had also been no ongoing fighting contesting Crimea's status, which was a big part of why the international community treated it differently.

In the early part of this phase of the conflict, that basically all still held up. I'm not sure it does anymore though.

Because before this war most experts thought a large scale ground/air war in Europe between large conventional military formations, was impossible. Then it happened and most experts thought Ukraine would be flattened in days/weeks. But then Ukraine weren't flattened and the full might of Russia was strategically defeated/forced back/retreated whatever you want to term it. This creates a problem though, because Russia under Putin is committed to attacking NATO members. If Ukraine proves successful for Russia (it clearly won't be now) then next is probably a warmup against Moldova and then the attack against a NATO member Baltics/Poland/Finland. We now know what happens if Russia attempted that, their entire conventional military will be destroyed within a few months at most by NATO. Which is also kind of bad, because that'll leave Russia only their nukes which they may use. Because of this the US/UK/EU/NATO has increasingly armed Ukraine to the teeth the longer the conflict has gone on, Ukraine has received more and more expensive/sophisticated/destructive weapons in contrast to 2014 where there was a debate about even sending ATGMs (which weren't sent), this has happened so that Russia is conclusively defeated in Ukraine before anything worse can happen in the future.

I now reckon Russia will be doing well to control any of Crimea by the time this is all over, the longer Russia pursues a military option the worse their position is getting.

Ukraine is destroying most of Russia's land based conventional military. They've pissed us off and messed in our democracies and like when a normally calm person snaps we've had enough.

[Guy Smiley]

Good to have your views back on the thread Os

[_Os_]

It’s pretty clear that in a conventional war, NATO would annihilate Russia in short order.

Also, there’s a growing view now that the war started in 2014. And it’s the same war.

Ukraine is destroying most of Russia's land based conventional military. They've pissed us off and messed in our democracies and like when a normally calm person snaps we've had enough.

NATO would easily win a conventional war against Russia, which would leave Russia only its nukes to use, which is why NATO is escalating the support it gives Ukraine (because Putin is mad enough to attack a NATO member and leave himself with only nukes to use, which because he's mad he may use, unless Russia is completely defeated in Ukraine first). This is all fine and within the informal "rules" of the Cold War too, each side backed their proxies much like NATO is doing with Ukraine now (Russia's mistake was using their own forces against a proxy, in the Cold War that gave Russia Afghanistan and the US Vietnam). Also agree the war started in 2014, some of my posts at the start of the full scale ground invasion said that (could even start from 2004/2005 and the Orange Revolution, as it's all about Russia and Putin losing their grip on Ukraine). The massive full scale invasion aspect of 2022 is clearly a new phase though, if someone said the war started in 2022 I wouldn't be too harsh on them.

How does it all end though? Or why is it even continuing?

Russia has failed in its strategic objectives, this is just a Russian face saving attempt now. Like in 2014 the Russian plan to install a stooge in Kyiv has failed, and they're trying to take/hold the consolation prize of Donbas. What are they going to do when they start losing Crimea, because Russia's weakness in Kherson makes that possible. The US seems okay with Ukrainian attacks on targets in Crimea and on the Russian Navy, presumably they would be okay with Ukraine trying to retake Crimea (if Kherson is retaken in the next few months, it could become possible in the winter or in 2023)?

[Jock42]

It’s pretty clear that in a conventional war, NATO would annihilate Russia in short order.

Also, there’s a growing view now that the war started in 2014. And it’s the same war.

It's been clear for at least 2 decades that the Rusdians aren't worth shite other than their nukes.

I'm surprised that view needs to be grown. There's an argument for the war having started in '08

[Hellraiser]

[petej]

I guess it ends when putin or his replacement decides to end it. It is continuing because other wise Russia has to declare it a failure and a huge waste of resource much like the US in Vietnam. Possibly a controversial opinion but I actually thought Biden was right to call time on USA in Afghanistan. yes, it was humiliating for the west and shit for many of the people of Afghanistan. Unlike Afghanistan I think Ukraine can become a fully functioning democracy. Belarus as well if allowed could also become a proper democracy.