What's going on in Ukraine?

[Flockwitt]

The point with Kherson is that the Russian's can't get out. They're in direct contact with no way to make an effective withdrawal if they break off because of the bottleneck to get over the Dnipro. Those troops can be included in the loss total, it's only a matter of time before the attrition there wears them out, or Ukraine brings unstoppable force. The airborne divisions there are good, part of the reason they're giving the Ukrainians trouble, but the writing is on the wall.

[_Os_]

The point with Kherson is that the Russian's can't get out. They're in direct contact with no way to make an effective withdrawal if they break off because of the bottleneck to get over the Dnipro. Those troops can be included in the loss total, it's only a matter of time before the attrition there wears them out, or Ukraine brings unstoppable force. The airborne divisions there are good, part of the reason they're giving the Ukrainians trouble, but the writing is on the wall.

I agree Kherson will fall, posted (in July?) it would play out through August and September. Kherson is really vital for Russia to get the limited face saving tactical victories it wants (they've already lost strategically), so it's looking like it could take longer now. Mariupol showed a hopeless defence can end for a long time.

[Uncle fester]

For real?

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Whatever is actually happening right now, and the situation must be fairly fluid and not fully certain, what an amazing shock this has to be for the RU troops involved. Only a week ago they must have felt safely ensconced and no doubt expecting to be comfortably in occupation - maybe even advancing further into UA territory with little or no enemy engagement. Given so much loss of senior command officers it has to be total chaos right now as regulars and reservists scramble around trying to decide whether to stay or GTFO. No wonder so many supplies are seemingly being abandoned and no clear news of where or how RU can re-organise for either defence or tactical retreat.

It's a staggering indictment of arrogance and a complete losing of touch with reality based on easy and early successes in the wider conflict. I don't want to take anything for granted but these few days at least have been a real eye-opener for anyone claiming that Russia is invincible and that we should have just settled for negotiations from a weak point right from the very start in February. My hope now is that some sort of common sense will prevail and RU will try to cut their losses without the leadership completely losing their heads and going all shit or bust. There is a long, long way to go as of now...

[SaintK]

Thanks for all this Gents.
Please keep it coming.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Grey Zone is an outlet of the Wagner Group

[laurent]

Grey Zone is an outlet of the Wagner Group

Lyman is important as the next stepping stone this is big if confirmed.
it reopens the Luhansk Province.

[Hal Jordan]

Lots of "skillful disengagement" going on.

[tabascoboy]

Reportedly fighting still taking place for Lyman, or that a detachment of RU forces are battling to cover the retreat - as usual nothing is confirmed

[_Os_]

A few Russian Telegram accounts are reporting that they're also being pushed back towards their own border in the north of Kharkiv. Now there's this map (Russian source).

[tc27]

Izum liberated according to the reliable OSINT accounts I follow.

[petej]

Lots of "skillful disengagement" going on.

You've got to ask if what is left of Russian command in Ukraine is now ignoring orders from Moscow.

[_Os_]

Low value targets confirmed hit in Velykyi Burluk. Chance that area is a Ukrainian target also, softening it up for a ground attack or making the Russians think one is coming. These buildings were in range of HIMARS before the offensive started.

Only other reason I can think of to hit these buildings now (and not previously) is to try and mess up Russia's C&C as they're being routed.

[Hellraiser]

Jesus, unconfirmed but Russian Telegram is saying the Ukrainians have broken through the line to Lysychansk and retaken Donetsk Airport.

[petej]

Jesus, unconfirmed but Russian Telegram is saying the Ukrainians have broken through the line to Lysychansk and retaken Donetsk Airport.

Do you mean luhansk airport? As Lysychansk is not on the way Donetsk. Apologies, if I'm getting my geography confused or I'm getting the wrong airport.

Edit: severodonetsk airport?

[Hellraiser]

Jesus, unconfirmed but Russian Telegram is saying the Ukrainians have broken through the line to Lysychansk and retaken Donetsk Airport.

Do you mean luhansk airport? As Lysychansk is not on the way Donetsk. Apologies, if I'm getting my geography confused or I'm getting the wrong airport.

Should have put that into two separate clauses. Broke the Lysychansk line in Luhansk and further south retaken Donetsk Airport.

[_Os_]

Jesus, unconfirmed but Russian Telegram is saying the Ukrainians have broken through the line to Lysychansk and retaken Donetsk Airport.

The Russians are absolutely shitting themselves. It's total panic.

It would simply be incredible if Sparta were defeated there after 8 years without anyone really noticing. But not totally impossible, there's been heavy fighting there for the last month, seemed like Ukraine were having the worst of it and were heavily outnumbered, Ukraine lost Ant Hill a trench/bunker complex near the airport, Pisky the critical village next to the airport fell in August. I do know Russian losses were extremely heavy during all that, they asked for a ceasefire to remove piles of their corpses. Possible the Russians ended up thin there.

[tabascoboy]

Rumours (only rumours) of Putin calling a special meeting of his security council and troops being rushed southwards from Moscow region.

A Russian source alleges to know that at this meeting was discussed...grain and fertilizer exports with not a single word about the conflicts currently in Ukraine. Also Putin today is visiting a new martial arts centre in Moscow.

Everything is normal guys.

Oh and look at the colours of that martial arts centre

[_Os_]

Rumours (only rumours) of Putin calling a special meeting of his security council and troops being rushed southwards from Moscow region.

A Russian source alleges to know that at this meeting was discussed...grain and fertilizer exports with not a single word about the conflicts currently in Ukraine. Also Putin today is visiting a new martial arts centre in Moscow.

Everything is normal guys.

If this Russian account is correct more or less their whole Donbas line is broken!

[fishfoodie]

[_Os_]

Official Wagner Telegram is also saying that Svatove is being abandoned. Convoys of civilian cars going towards Russia would make sense as they've left all their gear in Kharkiv, apparently Svatove was the rallying point for the troops that fled. If this is all true, could be a general Russian pull out from northern Luhansk where they have no established defences.

[TB63]

[fishfoodie]

Theoretically the BMPs are amphibious, but it's been reported for decades, that typical Russian/Soviet Quality control, meant that capability was high questionable, & you definitely didn't want to have test it in the heat of battle.

[Flockwitt]

Can you imagine having to actually fight this kind of modern war where death can descend from the skies at any moment...

[_Os_]

Lots of chatter (including from Russians) that UA forces are currently fighting on the outskirts of Lysychansk. My best effort at finding an original source is a photo taken by UA forces of the Lysychansk oil refinery.

[tabascoboy]

Meanwhile in Moscow, Putin is at the opening of a new 140m high Ferris wheel. Nothing to see, everything is normal...

[TB63]

[Niegs]

Theoretically the BMPs are amphibious, but it's been reported for decades, that typical Russian/Soviet Quality control, meant that capability was high questionable, & you definitely didn't want to have test it in the heat of battle.

Apparently a four-year-old Ukrainian clip. Maybe some similar quality control/training issues for them back then? Definitely not the most reliable of equipment.

[GogLais]

Meanwhile in Moscow, Putin is at the opening of a new 140m high Ferris wheel. Nothing to see, everything is normal...

Let’s hope he doesn’t accidentally fall from the top.

[_Os_]

Russian military official reported as saying they're abandoning Vovchansk and some comments about pivoting away from Kharkiv to focus on Donbas. Izyum was the Russian HQ for their entire northern Donbas effort, but who cares about facts.

[Calculon]

I believe I can fly....

[yermum]

All sorts of wild rumours flying about.
Russians reporting that Severnodonetsk and Lyschansk have fallen etc.

Must be pure chaos for the RUF ATM. Trying to keep up with what's really going on and where to try to send reserves ... They look in serious trouble.

[fishfoodie]

All sorts of wild rumours flying about.
Russians reporting that Severnodonetsk and Lyschansk have fallen etc.

Must be pure chaos for the RUF ATM. Trying to keep up with what's really going on and where to try to send reserves ... They look in serious trouble.

The line has broken, & everyone is focused on running, & not updating the Generals.

Time for the Ukrainians to keep chasing them, & not give them Orcs any chance to regroup.

[_Os_]

All sorts of wild rumours flying about.
Russians reporting that Severnodonetsk and Lyschansk have fallen etc.

Must be pure chaos for the RUF ATM. Trying to keep up with what's really going on and where to try to send reserves ... They look in serious trouble.

No no, the Russian MOD says it's all part of a well planned Russian effort to regroup and focus on Donbas. The second Russian Lt-Col to be captured in this offensive (this one not having his trousers on), losing all their most modern radar systems, losing Izyum which took them over a month of fighting to take, having all the gains from their months long Donbas offensive reversed in a few days ... all just part of the plan from Putin the 4D chess grand master.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

All sorts of wild rumours flying about.
Russians reporting that Severnodonetsk and Lyschansk have fallen etc.

Must be pure chaos for the RUF ATM. Trying to keep up with what's really going on and where to try to send reserves ... They look in serious trouble.

No no, the Russian MOD says it's all part of a well planned Russian effort to regroup and focus on Donbas. The second Russian Lt-Col to be captured in this offensive (this one not having his trousers on), losing all their most modern radar systems, losing Izyum which took them over a month of fighting to take, having all the gains from their months long Donbas offensive reversed in a few days ... all just part of the plan from Putin the 4D chess grand master.

The more they lie, the worse the truth will turn out to be.

[_Os_]

The more they lie, the worse the truth will turn out to be.

They live in an alternate reality. Russians didn't seem to care much when they retreated from Kyiv which meant losing the war, they just decided the war was about something different entirely. The video of the transcript is even more mad. Being heavily defeated is part of the plan and it's all just a regrouping exercise, roll the propaganda clips of Russian forces driving about and shooting in orderly fashion as the military guy reads the script.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

A bit cautious about this first piece of news as it's not corroborated

"Donetsk airport is ours. We captured Donetsk airport and even more"

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