Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Biffer]

No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn

They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally

This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.

Which is where the economic illiteracy comes in. Trickle down doesn't work, but reducing tax burden on lower middle class and working class does - because these are the people who will actually spend extra money in the economy and drive some of the growth desired. Of course you then need sensible ways to get business to invest (to be fair there are one or two things in the statement which are good in that respect) but just wishing hard that business will put tax cuts back into UK businesses, rather than investing them elsewhere, where they'll then get additional tax relief and be able to double their money, is fucking mental.

[dpedin]

No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn

They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally

This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.

Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

[Biffer]

They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally

This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.

Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Think I need to whip most of my pension fund into European and US funds

[tabascoboy]

Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on

[Biffer]

Kwarteng also trailed all the other stuff they'll be doing as well. Lowering food standards, removing worker's rights, going after the unions hard, removing environmental protections, lowering safety standards, these are all on the horizon - this is the 'red tape' they talk about, not some arcane paperwork (because they've already increased that on anyone who imports or exports)

[Insane_Homer]

[fishfoodie]

Kwarteng also trailed all the other stuff they'll be doing as well. Lowering food standards, removing worker's rights, going after the unions hard, removing environmental protections, lowering safety standards, these are all on the horizon - this is the 'red tape' they talk about, not some arcane paperwork (because they've already increased that on anyone who imports or exports)

No need to worry about exports, the EU will soon be pulling the plug on the agreement, & that should fulfill Minfords goal of, running down UK farming, & manufacturing.

[dpedin]

Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on

Hollie wins me a few bob in the 3.00pm! Trots in 4th on 66-1 outsider for my ew bet. Wonder if Kwarteng had a few bob on her?

[dpedin]

Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on

Hollie wins me a few bob in the 3.00pm! Trots in 4th on 66-1 outsider for my ew bet. Wonder if Kwarteng had a few bob on her?

Then makes an arse of it in the big race! Still up

[Insane_Homer]

fucked.png (21.71 KiB) Viewed 1449 times

[tabascoboy]

Pffft, I'm sure that B*m*o*a* and a couple others could explain how those so-called experts and the rest of us are completely wrong and this is in fact a genius move of greatness unparalleled by our new leaders - and apparent economic turmoil and social chaos is all just a part of the plan...

[I like neeps]

Not going well for Kami-Kwasi.

[tabascoboy]

[Insane_Homer]

still falling, 1.08

[I like neeps]

To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.

[sefton]

I’m just depressed, we’re already running a food bank in our Trust and this is only going to get worse with this mini budget.

[fishfoodie]

still falling, 1.08

Great Idea to have the most massive budget in the last decade, on a Friday !

Now the Markets can calm down over the weekend, & take stock; & then come in fresh on Monday, & really give Sterling a good fucking shoeing

Today brought back memories of Norman Lamont, really looking like he was in control, & had the pulse of the Money Markets.

[Tichtheid]

So, I know it's only been a couple of weeks, and there was the death of the longest serving monarch we've ever had to contend with, but...

Does the panel think that Boris Johnson is already only the second worst PM we've ever had?

[fishfoodie]

So, I know it's only been a couple of weeks, and there was the death of the longest serving monarch we've ever had to contend with, but...

Does the panel think that Boris Johnson is already only the second worst PM we've ever had?

Kudos to him on making sure that he wouldn't be the shortest ever serving PM, & putting into office someone who'd be lucky to get two years in office

In a decades time people will be thinking fondly of when they just had to worry about the PM fucking his PA, & getting shitfaced every Friday during a global pandemic

[Wyndham Upalot]

In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.

[_Os_]

To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.

a. There's no shift in the politics though. Brexit is clearly the core problem but the media and the political parties refuse to mention it. It forms no part of the Labour platform, because they want to minimise the attack surface the Tories and the media have. There's going to have to be some type of Brexit u-turn at some point, but the politics is pointing towards a lot more damage before then. Brexit's supporters are deep into the sunk costs fallacy, they now know it's a failure but refuse to change course. This is the usual for nationalist/populist disasters the damage keeps rolling on long after it should've ended.

b. The core issue is not enough housing supply. Those who get burned will be those without much equity/large mortgage, which means those who have just bought, which means people under 40 who for the most part contributed to none of this mess. Then when the market recovers there's still not enough supply, so the market remains dysfunctional.

You've missed that SMEs are highly leveraged, and most of this debt is connected to the BoE base rate. They have to leverage mainly because of costs, but also because if everyone else does and they don't then they're at a competitive disadvantage and have no market share. This is where Minford and the other morons get it wrong, they think if interest rates go to 7% and they kill the zombie companies (those which can only service but not repay their debt) that means all the zombies are gone (rather than new zombies being created at the new interest rate level), but what they really get wrong is how responsive the economy is. They think if agri and manufacturing and random SMEs are nuked, then all those people immediately reskill/retool and start all over again in some other sector becoming even more productive than they were before, but that's not even close to what happens.

c. Most polls still have them above 30%, and most of the UK media is lukewarm supportive of them. Labour wouldn't even be in double digits if they were this shithouse.

[GogLais]

Can Rishi and his supporters vote for this?

[C69]

In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.

Thank fuck I have paid off my mortgage and will retire in. Afew years.
My brawd has just moved to Dubai and just had enough of the UK. He says you have to be ou tof the UK to realise ho wdire the decline is.

[petej]

In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.

Thank fuck I have paid off my mortgage and will retire in. Afew years.
My brawd has just moved to Dubai and just had enough of the UK. He says you have to be ou tof the UK to realise ho wdire the decline is.

I used to wonder why Italians voted for Berlusconi. The dysfunction is very obvious from outside the UK.

[I like neeps]

To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.

a. There's no shift in the politics though. Brexit is clearly the core problem but the media and the political parties refuse to mention it. It forms no part of the Labour platform, because they want to minimise the attack surface the Tories and the media have. There's going to have to be some type of Brexit u-turn at some point, but the politics is pointing towards a lot more damage before then. Brexit's supporters are deep into the sunk costs fallacy, they now know it's a failure but refuse to change course. This is the usual for nationalist/populist disasters the damage keeps rolling on long after it should've ended.

b. The core issue is not enough housing supply. Those who get burned will be those without much equity/large mortgage, which means those who have just bought, which means people under 40 who for the most part contributed to none of this mess. Then when the market recovers there's still not enough supply, so the market remains dysfunctional.

You've missed that SMEs are highly leveraged, and most of this debt is connected to the BoE base rate. They have to leverage mainly because of costs, but also because if everyone else does and they don't then they're at a competitive disadvantage and have no market share. This is where Minford and the other morons get it wrong, they think if interest rates go to 7% and they kill the zombie companies (those which can only service but not repay their debt) that means all the zombies are gone (rather than new zombies being created at the new interest rate level), but what they really get wrong is how responsive the economy is. They think if agri and manufacturing and random SMEs are nuked, then all those people immediately reskill/retool and start all over again in some other sector becoming even more productive than they were before, but that's not even close to what happens.

c. Most polls still have them above 30%, and most of the UK media is lukewarm supportive of them. Labour wouldn't even be in double digits if they were this shithouse.

A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.

[_Os_]

A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.

You're overpricing something more rational returning, what if a lot of people in the UK are just beyond reason? the Tories will probably lose in 2024 (the latest a GE can be held is January 2025), but it's not impossible the Tories hang on. A country can become Argentina or worse, people can become trapped in the idea of nationalism/populism.

The Tories have built a large constituency, which they always shovel patronage at. Anyone who has paid off their mortgage (older people) is totally insulated from what happens in the housing market. Everyone has been protected from energy prices not by taxing energy companies, but instead through debt and higher general taxation later (paid for by younger people). Anyone with large savings (older people) will benefit from a higher interest rate. If this group is about 30%-35% of the UK, as their polling suggests, then there's not too many more the Tories need to con on election day for a majority.

Agree that if the Tories maintain this course then we haven't seen anything yet. The BoE BR is a bit misleading in that it gives no sense of how affordable it is, UK wages are worth much less than they were in the past. 5% BR would create something worse than the 2008 GFC and be about as bad as anything in the last 50 years. The average mortgage is £140k, but that's an average, for people under 40 it's going to be closer to £200k. (working only from memory) In 2020 the average UK household of 2.4 people had £30k of outgoings after income tax with almost nothing being saved, of that £10k-£15k went on keeping a roof over their head (mortgage or rent/council tax/utilities), Once the the UK is at a 5% BR, for someone with a £200k mortgage the cost of maintaining that roof over their head goes up to about £20k-£25k, they then have £5k-£10k to spend on food and transport, with not much room for anything else. It'll nuke the entire UK economy. There will be demands for the UK government to secure private mortgages and pump the national debt higher.

This time next year will be interesting.

[I like neeps]

A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.

You're overpricing something more rational returning, what if a lot of people in the UK are just beyond reason? the Tories will probably lose in 2024 (the latest a GE can be held is January 2025), but it's not impossible the Tories hang on. A country can become Argentina or worse, people can become trapped in the idea of nationalism/populism.

The Tories have built a large constituency, which they always shovel patronage at. Anyone who has paid off their mortgage (older people) is totally insulated from what happens in the housing market. Everyone has been protected from energy prices not by taxing energy companies, but instead through debt and higher general taxation later (paid for by younger people). Anyone with large savings (older people) will benefit from a higher interest rate. If this group is about 30%-35% of the UK, as their polling suggests, then there's not too many more the Tories need to con on election day for a majority.

Agree that if the Tories maintain this course then we haven't seen anything yet. The BoE BR is a bit misleading in that it gives no sense of how affordable it is, UK wages are worth much less than they were in the past. 5% BR would create something worse than the 2008 GFC and be about as bad as anything in the last 50 years. The average mortgage is £140k, but that's an average, for people under 40 it's going to be closer to £200k. (working only from memory) In 2020 the average UK household of 2.4 people had £30k of outgoings after income tax with almost nothing being saved, of that £10k-£15k went on keeping a roof over their head (mortgage or rent/council tax/utilities), Once the the UK is at a 5% BR, for someone with a £200k mortgage the cost of maintaining that roof over their head goes up to about £20k-£25k, they then have £5k-£10k to spend on food and transport, with not much room for anything else. It'll nuke the entire UK economy. There will be demands for the UK government to secure private mortgages and pump the national debt higher.

This time next year will be interesting.

Because voting for the conservatives is very rational if you own assets. As they have reliably increased those assets values with every policy. Very few people have argued that voting Tories if you own a house is extremely sensible because every year you become richer. Brexit is irrational if you understand economics but if you don't really and read The Sun, Mail, Telegraph or Times then it's rational because they blamed the EU for everything.

People who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings are the minority of the population. And then how many have paid off their mortgage and used their savings to buy a BTL with recurring revenue? That's now gone. How many of them are watching their bank of mum and dad nest egg to their kids go bye bye? Surely that doesn't make them happy? How many are nimbys to retain their houses value for when they downsize or want to help their children with inheritance? That now is going. How many rely on the NHS more and more as they get old? Because that's in a dreadful state.

I agree that people are going to lose all spending power when their mortgages become unaffordable and the economy will fall in on itself. But that's why I said it's the end of the Tories. When their policies fail because international investors don't like them or brexit (check) and the interest rates rising collapses their voters personal income and the income (2-5 years time) they're done. There's no nationalism to cling on to.

Of course they've played a hospital pass to the next Labour government so the rampant press baiting of Labour in power could bring them back but people won't forget.

[petej]

Neeps is overstating rationality, underestimating our electoral system and dismissing the fact that a large proportion of the population in England particularly are incredibly deferential to our elites and the social order.

[Tichtheid]

.

[_Os_]

Because voting for the conservatives is very rational if you own assets. As they have reliably increased those assets values with every policy. Very few people have argued that voting Tories if you own a house is extremely sensible because every year you become richer. Brexit is irrational if you understand economics but if you don't really and read The Sun, Mail, Telegraph or Times then it's rational because they blamed the EU for everything.

People who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings are the minority of the population. And then how many have paid off their mortgage and used their savings to buy a BTL with recurring revenue? That's now gone. How many of them are watching their bank of mum and dad nest egg to their kids go bye bye? Surely that doesn't make them happy? How many are nimbys to retain their houses value for when they downsize or want to help their children with inheritance? That now is going. How many rely on the NHS more and more as they get old? Because that's in a dreadful state.

I agree that people are going to lose all spending power when their mortgages become unaffordable and the economy will fall in on itself. But that's why I said it's the end of the Tories. When their policies fail because international investors don't like them or brexit (check) and the interest rates rising collapses their voters personal income and the income (2-5 years time) they're done. There's no nationalism to cling on to.

Of course they've played a hospital pass to the next Labour government so the rampant press baiting of Labour in power could bring them back but people won't forget.

Out of homeowners "people who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings" are the majority, as in more people own their residence outright than people paying a mortgage for the house they "own". They bought decades ago when house prices were much lower and an average salary covered more of the cost, and have been paying in for decades. Just that alone makes them immune to the higher interest rates the Tories are going to bring about. It's such an advantage they basically stand to lose not much, other than the psychological hit of falling house prices maybe (but it's illusionary wealth, because when a house is sold it's usually exchanged for another house, so if house prices broadly fall they lose not much), but there's still a lack of supply so maybe house prices don't fall much.

There's reports that even more taxes are going to be cut. Fuck knows where the interest rate is heading, in all the reporting I've read there's zero comprehension that numbers like 5% or 7% may sound low by historic standards, but they're as unaffordable as much higher numbers in the past were. there's zero comprehension what house price inflation and a decade and a half of wage stagnation has done.

It's also being reported in the Times that Tory connected hedge funders short the pound and made a killing, same thing happened when parliament was prorogued and on the Brexit referendum. There was also this at the end of that Times article, if you want a read on how rational people people can be:
"However, even those who like what Truss has done so far are concerned that it needs to be explained better to the public. There is some evidence that the public will give Truss the benefit of the doubt for now. In a focus group with voters from the marginal Midlands seat of West Bromwich East conducted by Luke Tryl, a former Tory political adviser, on Friday evening, many questioned the effectiveness and fairness of the budget measures. But they also said it was “too soon” to judge Truss. Several questioned whether Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, was “strong enough” to be prime minister. Five of the participants had voted Tory in 2019, when Nicola Turner beat her Labour rival by 1,593 votes; three of them had backed Labour. In a vote at the end of the focus group, they divided six for Truss and two for Starmer.".

[fishfoodie]

Know your place you fucking plebs !

Conservative MPs have rounded on the government after a Treasury minister described criticism of plans to give high earners a tax cut during a cost of living crisis as the “politics of envy”.

Furious fellow Tory MPs hit out at the comment by Chris Philp, the chief secretary to the Treasury, just hours after the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced he was scrapping the highest rate of tax, paid by those earning more than £150,000 a year.

...

Defending the help for high earners, Mr Philp said the government was offering tax cuts to everyone.

"We’re going to do what’s right for the whole country. That means reducing taxes for everybody – low earners but also high earners,” he said.

"We’re going to do what’s right, we’re going to get growth delivered. And we’re not going to sort of worry about the politics of envy, or the optics of it.”

One former cabinet minister, who supported Liz Truss during her leadership campaign, described Mr Philp’s comment as “not sensible”.

Another former minister said his remarks were a “crisis” for the government and that the chief secretary to the Treasury was “one of the less brilliant appointments – and the bar is set low already”.

One of those who criticised the plan was Conservative former cabinet minister Julian Smith, who said: “This huge tax cut for the very rich at a time of national crisis and real fear and anxiety amongst low-income workers and citizens is wrong.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 74482.html

[tabascoboy]

[dpedin]

In many ways the tax cuts for the rich are a bit of a sideshow! The bankers bonus was announced in order to deflect from the more insidious plans they have, knowing full well it would attract the noise from the press and the left. This is straight out of the Trump/Blonde Bumblecunt playbook - except they don't have a blond buffoon to distract so they needed something to provide the sideshow. The more worrying and dangerous underlying theme to the whole budget and subsequent announcements is the plan to deregulate - stripping back environmental, employment, tax and human rights in order to steamroller through their plans for Freeport's and Charter cities or whatever they are calling them now. These moves will take us back to the 60's and 70's and strip away all the progress we have made but they see them as blockages to big businesses growing. If you think the shit in the rivers and seas was bad you ain't seen nothing yet. However doing this will automatically exclude us from a range of trade deals and no doubt lead to a trade war with the EU etc. However this bunch of cretins are only in it for the quick wins and will swan off to the carribean once they have asset stripped the UK of its last remaining assets.

[tabascoboy]

So PMs new Chief of Staff ( the one "helping the FBI with their enquiries") is paid by a lobbying firm? No, no possible conflict of interest there then

[I like neeps]

Because voting for the conservatives is very rational if you own assets. As they have reliably increased those assets values with every policy. Very few people have argued that voting Tories if you own a house is extremely sensible because every year you become richer. Brexit is irrational if you understand economics but if you don't really and read The Sun, Mail, Telegraph or Times then it's rational because they blamed the EU for everything.

People who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings are the minority of the population. And then how many have paid off their mortgage and used their savings to buy a BTL with recurring revenue? That's now gone. How many of them are watching their bank of mum and dad nest egg to their kids go bye bye? Surely that doesn't make them happy? How many are nimbys to retain their houses value for when they downsize or want to help their children with inheritance? That now is going. How many rely on the NHS more and more as they get old? Because that's in a dreadful state.

I agree that people are going to lose all spending power when their mortgages become unaffordable and the economy will fall in on itself. But that's why I said it's the end of the Tories. When their policies fail because international investors don't like them or brexit (check) and the interest rates rising collapses their voters personal income and the income (2-5 years time) they're done. There's no nationalism to cling on to.

Of course they've played a hospital pass to the next Labour government so the rampant press baiting of Labour in power could bring them back but people won't forget.

Out of homeowners "people who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings" are the majority, as in more people own their residence outright than people paying a mortgage for the house they "own". They bought decades ago when house prices were much lower and an average salary covered more of the cost, and have been paying in for decades. Just that alone makes them immune to the higher interest rates the Tories are going to bring about. It's such an advantage they basically stand to lose not much, other than the psychological hit of falling house prices maybe (but it's illusionary wealth, because when a house is sold it's usually exchanged for another house, so if house prices broadly fall they lose not much), but there's still a lack of supply so maybe house prices don't fall much.

There's reports that even more taxes are going to be cut. Fuck knows where the interest rate is heading, in all the reporting I've read there's zero comprehension that numbers like 5% or 7% may sound low by historic standards, but they're as unaffordable as much higher numbers in the past were. there's zero comprehension what house price inflation and a decade and a half of wage stagnation has done.

It's also being reported in the Times that Tory connected hedge funders short the pound and made a killing, same thing happened when parliament was prorogued and on the Brexit referendum. There was also this at the end of that Times article, if you want a read on how rational people people can be:
"However, even those who like what Truss has done so far are concerned that it needs to be explained better to the public. There is some evidence that the public will give Truss the benefit of the doubt for now. In a focus group with voters from the marginal Midlands seat of West Bromwich East conducted by Luke Tryl, a former Tory political adviser, on Friday evening, many questioned the effectiveness and fairness of the budget measures. But they also said it was “too soon” to judge Truss. Several questioned whether Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, was “strong enough” to be prime minister. Five of the participants had voted Tory in 2019, when Nicola Turner beat her Labour rival by 1,593 votes; three of them had backed Labour. In a vote at the end of the focus group, they divided six for Truss and two for Starmer.".

Don't think they will be shielded completely. The number of people who live in a house outright might be larger than mortgage holders but there are more renters than outright owners and around 2.4m BTLs. I am going to guess a significant number of BTL landlords are those who own their house outright. Also, if the market collapses because people can't afford record costs + 5% mortgages the outright owners won't be at all happy because their asset wealth is totally eroded. That's the best egg for the kids gone. I guess the hope is according to Robert Colvile who wrote Bojo's election manifesto the cut in stamp duty means they can downsize and cash in their wealth to stimulate the market but that seems bold because relies on people being able to afford larger houses. The rental market will also likely cool.

Yes Labour should make a huge deal about Tories being supported by bankers (one who Kwarteng worked for) shorting the point and gaining massive profits on betting against Britain. But they won't as Starmer is fairly useless.

I don't think deciding it's too soon to judge Truss is irrational. Most people are fairly plugged out of politics and optimists. Have they been following market reaction to the budget? The Tory pollster obviously isn't telling them what happened. I have to agree swapping Corbyn's Labour for Truss' conservatives is bizarre. However, focus groups are led in the direction you want them to be and quite often people just agree with the majority anyway.

[fishfoodie]

All the promises about restructing agricultural subsidies were thrown in the bin last week; & even the most middle-class of institutions has finally realised the plan.

[_Os_]

Neeps, there's enough in that reply to support what I'm saying. The Tories have a core support of 30%-35% that benefit from all the goodies the Tories give them, they're older property owners making a rational choice (but an increasingly immoral one). The Tories then only need a good election campaign where they con a few more and they've got a majority, irrational people exist.

Don't think they will be shielded completely. The number of people who live in a house outright might be larger than mortgage holders but there are more renters than outright owners and around 2.4m BTLs. I am going to guess a significant number of BTL landlords are those who own their house outright. Also, if the market collapses because people can't afford record costs + 5% mortgages the outright owners won't be at all happy because their asset wealth is totally eroded. That's the best egg for the kids gone. I guess the hope is according to Robert Colvile who wrote Bojo's election manifesto the cut in stamp duty means they can downsize and cash in their wealth to stimulate the market but that seems bold because relies on people being able to afford larger houses. The rental market will also likely cool.

There's about 30m UK residential dwellings, of those 11m are mortgaged, there's different ways of measuring the PRS (by BTL mortgages, by houses rented, by number of landlords), but I've never seen any figure higher than 4.5m. The PRS has stagnated since 2016 and last time I looked most new BTL mortgages are re-mortgages. Most landlords are small time and have less than 5 houses, they're the accidental type (combined households with their partner and let the spare house), or someone that bought some then decided it was too much work. What I'm getting at is that there's no one size fits all description of "landlord", for example it's not true that every landlord has a residence that's mortgage free because the risk tolerance of someone that buys multiple houses isn't the same as someone that wants to be debt free. How a 5% interest rate impacts a landlord will depend on their portfolio (obviously), there's much less vagueness about those newest to the housing market being the most damaged (the equation for them is "high house price + 15 years of wage stagnation + historically normal interest rate of 5% = bankruptcy").

There's really two things here that are pertinent. 1 A large amount of homes are owned outright, these people are significantly less impacted (I would argue almost immune) from interest rate rises, if this is the core Tory constituency then the Tories will not care about interest rates so much, and indeed their messaging is that they don't care about interest rates. 2 The percentage of any of these people who are suddenly going to vote Labour when the economy turns bad, is very low, because the Tories will still be more aligned with protecting their interests.

Yes Labour should make a huge deal about Tories being supported by bankers (one who Kwarteng worked for) shorting the point and gaining massive profits on betting against Britain. But they won't as Starmer is fairly useless.

I don't think deciding it's too soon to judge Truss is irrational. Most people are fairly plugged out of politics and optimists. Have they been following market reaction to the budget? The Tory pollster obviously isn't telling them what happened. I have to agree swapping Corbyn's Labour for Truss' conservatives is bizarre. However, focus groups are led in the direction you want them to be and quite often people just agree with the majority anyway.

This is the second part of what I'm saying. Not everyone can be reasoned with, those people can only be won with an emotional offer and the easiest way to do that is to appeal to their identity (in mass politics it's also the only practical method). Of course backing Corbyn then backing Truss is irrational, that's the point. Labour knows Brown/Miliband/Corbyn were all basically called Communists that would destroy the UK, they were demonised by the press and rendered unelectable. Starmer has deliberately provided no way of attacking him on this basis, he advocates almost no change at all and puts the British flag on everything possible, he stands for almost nothing and has given the Tories and the Tory press (Express/Sun/DM/Telegraph/Times) zero attack surface. If he supported any change, he would become a Communist trying to destroy the UK just like Brown/Miliband/Corbyn and would then be unelectable, because much like in that focus group Tory talking points around Labour being dangerous would dominate.

With the economic damage that's coming this should be enough to get the Tories out. But the risk for Labour is that they look unauthentic, the Tories can wave flags and talk a load of bullshit better than they can.

[I like neeps]

Hope everyone is ready for Black Monday 2

[I like neeps]

Neeps, there's enough in that reply to support what I'm saying. The Tories have a core support of 30%-35% that benefit from all the goodies the Tories give them, they're older property owners making a rational choice (but an increasingly immoral one). The Tories then only need a good election campaign where they con a few more and they've got a majority, irrational people exist.

Don't think they will be shielded completely. The number of people who live in a house outright might be larger than mortgage holders but there are more renters than outright owners and around 2.4m BTLs. I am going to guess a significant number of BTL landlords are those who own their house outright. Also, if the market collapses because people can't afford record costs + 5% mortgages the outright owners won't be at all happy because their asset wealth is totally eroded. That's the best egg for the kids gone. I guess the hope is according to Robert Colvile who wrote Bojo's election manifesto the cut in stamp duty means they can downsize and cash in their wealth to stimulate the market but that seems bold because relies on people being able to afford larger houses. The rental market will also likely cool.

There's about 30m UK residential dwellings, of those 11m are mortgaged, there's different ways of measuring the PRS (by BTL mortgages, by houses rented, by number of landlords), but I've never seen any figure higher than 4.5m. The PRS has stagnated since 2016 and last time I looked most new BTL mortgages are re-mortgages. Most landlords are small time and have less than 5 houses, they're the accidental type (combined households with their partner and let the spare house), or someone that bought some then decided it was too much work. What I'm getting at is that there's no one size fits all description of "landlord", for example it's not true that every landlord has a residence that's mortgage free because the risk tolerance of someone that buys multiple houses isn't the same as someone that wants to be debt free. How a 5% interest rate impacts a landlord will depend on their portfolio (obviously), there's much less vagueness about those newest to the housing market being the most damaged (the equation for them is "high house price + 15 years of wage stagnation + historically normal interest rate of 5% = bankruptcy").

There's really two things here that are pertinent. 1 A large amount of homes are owned outright, these people are significantly less impacted (I would argue almost immune) from interest rate rises, if this is the core Tory constituency then the Tories will not care about interest rates so much, and indeed their messaging is that they don't care about interest rates. 2 The percentage of any of these people who are suddenly going to vote Labour when the economy turns bad, is very low, because the Tories will still be more aligned with protecting their interests.

Yes Labour should make a huge deal about Tories being supported by bankers (one who Kwarteng worked for) shorting the point and gaining massive profits on betting against Britain. But they won't as Starmer is fairly useless.

I don't think deciding it's too soon to judge Truss is irrational. Most people are fairly plugged out of politics and optimists. Have they been following market reaction to the budget? The Tory pollster obviously isn't telling them what happened. I have to agree swapping Corbyn's Labour for Truss' conservatives is bizarre. However, focus groups are led in the direction you want them to be and quite often people just agree with the majority anyway.

This is the second part of what I'm saying. Not everyone can be reasoned with, those people can only be won with an emotional offer and the easiest way to do that is to appeal to their identity (in mass politics it's also the only practical method). Of course backing Corbyn then backing Truss is irrational, that's the point. Labour knows Brown/Miliband/Corbyn were all basically called Communists that would destroy the UK, they were demonised by the press and rendered unelectable. Starmer has deliberately provided no way of attacking him on this basis, he advocates almost no change at all and puts the British flag on everything possible, he stands for almost nothing and has given the Tories and the Tory press (Express/Sun/DM/Telegraph/Times) zero attack surface. If he supported any change, he would become a Communist trying to destroy the UK just like Brown/Miliband/Corbyn and would then be unelectable, because much like in that focus group Tory talking points around Labour being dangerous would dominate.

With the economic damage that's coming this should be enough to get the Tories out. But the risk for Labour is that they look unauthentic, the Tories can wave flags and talk a load of bullshit better than they can.

Insulted as in you don't need to sell your house, but it also means when you do you'll take a huge loss. It also feels a bit unrealistic to me an electorally significant number of those won't have some exposure somewhere whether it's home loans, car loans, nest egg for the kids.

The over leveraged mortgage holders and landlords using a house or two for their retirement wont be a majority but any stretch but again it'll be a significant number electorally. Of course the high deposit + high borrowing will be worse than both. And again, that's electorally a significant number.

Yes agreed with putting the flag on things which isn't even what people want I don't think. You'd have to speak to the person who moved from Corbyn to Truss to understand it. But it'll be such a hilariously low numbet nationwide as to make this focus group the pointed waste of time they all are.

[fishfoodie]

Hope everyone is ready for Black Monday 2

I'd head out early & brim your cars tank, & if you haven't done so already, make sure your home heating tank is full too !

Oil being priced in dollars isn't your friend right now.