Someone that has paid off their house is in a fundamentally different place to those that haven't. Even if house prices fall, they're only losing part of the house price inflation, they'll still be up on what they bought it for (having bought decades ago). Any loss they have is notional and basically not real. These people aren't going to become Labour voters because of this, they're just not sorry. All their incentives will remain the same. The UK's population isn't young, so this isn't a small group of people.I like neeps wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:44 pm Insulted as in you don't need to sell your house, but it also means when you do you'll take a huge loss. It also feels a bit unrealistic to me an electorally significant number of those won't have some exposure somewhere whether it's home loans, car loans, nest egg for the kids.
The over leveraged mortgage holders and landlords using a house or two for their retirement wont be a majority but any stretch but again it'll be a significant number electorally. Of course the high deposit + high borrowing will be worse than both. And again, that's electorally a significant number.
The group that is going to get fucked hard, are those under 40 with a mortgage. When you say "the high deposit + high borrowing will be worse than both", that's most that bought over the last decade in 0% interest rate conditions, with massive house price inflation, and massive wage stagnation. An average household income will struggle to support the size of mortgage many of these people have at a BoE Rate of 5%. It's not going to be a small amount of mortgages either, 25% of mortgages are trackers and from memory another 20% need to re-fix in 2023, so around half of mortgages will be exposed to a 5% BoE Rate next year, or 1 in 6 residential dwellings. Those people are going to remember this for the rest of their lives, if they're Tory voters now they're going to reconsider.
If the Tories insist their biggest morons must remain in the cockpit, there could be calls for the government to support the mortgage market. But the UK has an outstanding residential mortgage debt of £1.6 trillion.
You won't be able to understand it by talking to them, it's irrational. A lot of people vote based on the feel of the final week, it's why parties put so much effort into the short campaign directly before the vote. It's easier to fight that final week if the opponent has landed zero punches over the years beforehand.I like neeps wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:44 pm Yes agreed with putting the flag on things which isn't even what people want I don't think. You'd have to speak to the person who moved from Corbyn to Truss to understand it. But it'll be such a hilariously low numbet nationwide as to make this focus group the pointed waste of time they all are.
