Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Torquemada 1420]

Meanwhile Braverman throwing some fresh red meat for the jackals at the Tory party conference

Ah yes. Another coconut who wants to pull up the drawbridge from which she and her own family benefited.

[Torquemada 1420]

Gordon Brown agrees with us fear mongers!

Gordoh knows the real numbers unlike Brandon Lewis (frothing more lies this morning on the Beeb when he claimed (again, unchallenged by the Beeb) that the UK has the 2nd lowest debt to GDP in the G7). Gordoh has included the hole in things like the public sector pensions.

[_Os_]

I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this

I doubt it.

After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.

The problem is the entire UK economy is about owning things and not doing things, it's all about rent extraction. It's just most obvious with housing, because everyone needs a roof over their head. But the problem is systemic and covers everything from natural resources/land and buildings/infrastructure/IP/finance. Normally you find the UK government has created the asset and distributed it (most obvious with Thatcher's privatisations). The owners then sit on the asset and squeeze everything they can from it.

When someone tries to start a business that's scalable and about doing something rather than owning something, they quickly discover the entry barrier is owning quite a lot already (and often then decide BTL is the best option, or if they don't own enough a sole trader type business which cannot scale). If they persist they find something else out, every tool (software and hardware) they need for their business isn't UK produced, because the UK economy isn't about disrupting owners. All their software is American and the hardware is East Asian/European/American, and all the best advice/knowledge doesn't come from the UK either. They'll also find their business model didn't exist or wasn't viable 10 years ago and is mostly online, and the reason they'll end up with that is because rent (building rent, council tax business rate, and now even the cost of electricity) make any other option unviable. The issue for the UK is once businesses like that scale, there's less incentive for them to employ people in the UK as they're starting out distributed/internationalised.

Whatever the solution is, it's never coming from the Tories.

[Biffer]

I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this

I doubt it.

After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.

The problem is the entire UK economy is about owning things and not doing things, it's all about rent extraction. It's just most obvious with housing, because everyone needs a roof over their head. But the problem is systemic and covers everything from natural resources/land and buildings/infrastructure/IP/finance. Normally you find the UK government has created the asset and distributed it (most obvious with Thatcher's privatisations). The owners then sit on the asset and squeeze everything they can from it.

When someone tries to start a business that's scalable and about doing something rather than owning something, they quickly discover the entry barrier is owning quite a lot already (and often then decide BTL is the best option, or if they don't own enough a sole trader type business which cannot scale). If they persist they find something else out, every tool (software and hardware) they need for their business isn't UK produced, because the UK economy isn't about disrupting owners. All their software is American and the hardware is East Asian/European/American, and all the best advice/knowledge doesn't come from the UK either. They'll also find their business model didn't exist or wasn't viable 10 years ago and is mostly online, and the reason they'll end up with that is because rent (building rent, council tax business rate, and now even the cost of electricity) make any other option unviable. The issue for the UK is once businesses like that scale, there's less incentive for them to employ people in the UK as they're starting out distributed/internationalised.

Whatever the solution is, it's never coming from the Tories.

Additionally for SMEs, as soon as they start getting investors I volved to grow, all the talk is of the exit strategy. In other words how quickly can we grow it tot the roi we want and then get rid of it. We hear various agencies banging on about unicorns but there's no interest in investing to achieve that in the UK.

That attitude is then enhanced by any public Co funding by the green investment bank or whatever as they look for it too because its what investors want.

[SaintK]

Says an awful lot about Clarke if he thinkss Braverman is talking sense. A coup FFS

[Torquemada 1420]

I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this

I doubt it.

After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.

The problem is the entire UK economy is about owning things and not doing things, it's all about rent extraction. It's just most obvious with housing, because everyone needs a roof over their head. But the problem is systemic and covers everything from natural resources/land and buildings/infrastructure/IP/finance. Normally you find the UK government has created the asset and distributed it (most obvious with Thatcher's privatisations). The owners then sit on the asset and squeeze everything they can from it.

When someone tries to start a business that's scalable and about doing something rather than owning something, they quickly discover the entry barrier is owning quite a lot already (and often then decide BTL is the best option, or if they don't own enough a sole trader type business which cannot scale). If they persist they find something else out, every tool (software and hardware) they need for their business isn't UK produced, because the UK economy isn't about disrupting owners. All their software is American and the hardware is East Asian/European/American, and all the best advice/knowledge doesn't come from the UK either. They'll also find their business model didn't exist or wasn't viable 10 years ago and is mostly online, and the reason they'll end up with that is because rent (building rent, council tax business rate, and now even the cost of electricity) make any other option unviable. The issue for the UK is once businesses like that scale, there's less incentive for them to employ people in the UK as they're starting out distributed/internationalised.

Whatever the solution is, it's never coming from the Tories.

Add to that that UK banks won't invest in businesses: it's all about short term loans at high rates with an immediate call on the debt. Plus they usually force security on other assets (e.g. your home) and so the whole notion of limited liability business is circumvented. Ditto of PE/VC money as per Biffer's observation.

So yes, the UK "makes nothing" (as my father would keep saying). It's a service economy and not a very good one at that. It's another factor in the UK's woeful productivity per capita which lags a mile even behind France (which is ironic given how the Brits smugly joke about how the French are "always on strike").

[Biffer]

We're now at the 'it's the Queen's fault for dying' stage of apportioning blame for the budget fuxkup.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 95185.html

[tabascoboy]

We're now at the 'it's the Queen's fault for dying' stage of apportioning blame for the budget fuxkup.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 95185.html

Or in other words, maybe assuming that in the quietude of the post mournfest that it would somehow slip by while attention was still elsewhere?

[tabascoboy]

[I like neeps]

This is a Sun journalist. The Tories have completely lost the plot.

[Insane_Homer]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

meh, He's just a Stephen Fry wannabe without the intellect, wearing a Fry suit.

[Ovals]

Cruella returns to safe Tory ground - bashing Immgrants, asylum seekers and benefit claimants.

[Ovals]

Tory Home Secretaries have never been ones to let facts get in the way of a bit of Asylum Seeker scaremongering

From the Beeb

Are Albanian small boat arrivals making false claims?
The home secretary said many of the Albanians arriving in the UK in small boats were falsely claiming to be trafficking victims.

Home Office figures show that in the first six months of this year, 18% of people arriving in small boats were from Albania (more than 2,100 people).

This is a substantial increase on the same period the year before, when there were just 23 arrivals from the country.

Yet yearly immigration figures also show that over half of recent arrivals from Albania were granted asylum by the government.

Albanians were also the most commonly referred nationality for trafficking support. In the first quarter of this year, Albanians accounted for 27% (1,008) of all potential victims.

The Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority was set up by the government to investigate trafficking claims. It found that in the first half of this year, 97% of cases referred for human trafficking were genuine, according to a report by a human rights charity.

[dpedin]

Interesting how many Tufton Street operatives have infiltrated this Gov.

[fishfoodie]

After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.

After the Irish property bubble crashed, there were reforms, but if you were young & wanted to buy a house, it was hard to see how they benefited you, & even if you had a house & wanted to trade up, they weren't much good to you.

The bottom line is that the only people who can benefit from a property crash, are those with cold, hard, cash !

If house prices crash, those with mortgages lose shitloads of the equity they've built up, & if the want to move, they're faced with the same increased interest rates as everyone else, & if the Banks now have mortgage books full of houses in negative equity, then the BoE will make them impose enormous restrictions on those seeking new mortgages; lest the banks go pop !!

The other simple reality is that house development will immediately grind to a complete halt (it's already under enormous pressure because of inflation, & COVID/Brexit supply chain pains); & the supply of new housing will cease; because their development was based on the Pre-Crash pricing; & then, if you're like Ireland, most of the developers will go bust, & their contractors will bugger off to places where they can still work, & you'll end up with a significant number of years where you aren't even meeting minimum goals for new housing !

And then guess what !

Any properties, or developments that are close to completion, will probably be hoovered up by REITs; because the underlying conditions for the bubble, of high rents, & high prices, low supply, & friendly tax breaks, will draw them in, & they'll buy up whole apartment blocks & housing estates, & completely freeze out private buyers.

[fishfoodie]

But maybe I'm being unkind, & the Tories decided to invite into the nice warm conference, the homeless, & people they'd forced into fuel poverty ....


or perhaps not ....

[Jockaline]

Someone mentioned an FT article, was this the one:

https://twitter.com/arusbridger/status/ ... 6558864384

She's toast.

[Lobby]

I’m sure the ‘red wall’ Tories are delighted with Truss’s 1st month in charge

[I like neeps]

Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.

[Tichtheid]

Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.

It's a tricky one, a serious conversation on the subject is nigh on impossible, that was shown by Farage standing in front of a poster depicting a huge queue of people supposedly (incorrectly) waiting to get into the UK.

Labour probably knows that the Tory press will play that card in the lead up to the next election, they should have worked out a grown-up response to populist racism by now.

[Hal Jordan]

I’m sure the ‘red wall’ Tories are delighted with Truss’s 1st month in charge

Never underestimate the shy Tory vote e.g. my paternal grandmother, who voted Tory all her life and lied to my Liberal voting grandfather about it, she confessed as much to my father after my grandfather died.

[robmatic]

Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.

It's a tricky one, a serious conversation on the subject is nigh on impossible, that was shown by Farage standing in front of a poster depicting a huge queue of people supposedly (incorrectly) waiting to get into the UK.

Labour probably knows that the Tory press will play that card in the lead up to the next election, they should have worked out a grown-up response to populist racism by now.

They probably shouldn't cede the argument to the racist populists.

I actually think it's pretty reasonable for Labour to be talking about deportations. Whether you are pro or anti immigration, deportation is something that the UK is quite bad at and is an important part of the policy toolkit for managing migration.

[sockwithaticket]

Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.

I don't think pointing out Tory failure by their own criteria and 'process claims quicker and send back people who don't have a genuine claim to be here' = an avowed intent to be tougher on illegal migrants than the Tories.

As attack lines that don't actually propose your own policy go, it wasn't a bad one.

On another tack, a non-insignificant portion of Labour's traditional support base do have what could generously be termed as concerns about immigration. That can't be ignored if power is sought, it's the sort of emotive issue which has turned votes.

[Torquemada 1420]

After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.

After the Irish property bubble crashed, there were reforms, but if you were young & wanted to buy a house, it was hard to see how they benefited you, & even if you had a house & wanted to trade up, they weren't much good to you.

The bottom line is that the only people who can benefit from a property crash, are those with cold, hard, cash !

If house prices crash, those with mortgages lose shitloads of the equity they've built up, & if the want to move, they're faced with the same increased interest rates as everyone else, & if the Banks now have mortgage books full of houses in negative equity, then the BoE will make them impose enormous restrictions on those seeking new mortgages; lest the banks go pop !!

The other simple reality is that house development will immediately grind to a complete halt (it's already under enormous pressure because of inflation, & COVID/Brexit supply chain pains); & the supply of new housing will cease; because their development was based on the Pre-Crash pricing; & then, if you're like Ireland, most of the developers will go bust, & their contractors will bugger off to places where they can still work, & you'll end up with a significant number of years where you aren't even meeting minimum goals for new housing !

And then guess what !

Any properties, or developments that are close to completion, will probably be hoovered up by REITs; because the underlying conditions for the bubble, of high rents, & high prices, low supply, & friendly tax breaks, will draw them in, & they'll buy up whole apartment blocks & housing estates, & completely freeze out private buyers.

1) If house prices fall then surely 1st time buyers benefit from reduced costs all round (assuming interest rate rises don't negate all of them)?

2) The equity is the problem. It's simply not real money because you can't cash in on it except in minority circumstances:
- trading down or out (emigrating or moving to rented)
- moving to cheaper area

3) Proper restrictions on mortgages is what has been needed all along. Especially on BTL where I've argued forever that max LTV there should be 50% by law. Good case that even home owners should never be permitted more than 75% LTV.

4) The house building thing remains a total red herring. There isn't a shortage of housing. There is a shortage of the correct housing in the correct places. So, concreting over the entire SE with 5 bed, "executive" homes ain't going to solve that (all it does is create even more, over priced HMOs). There is no profit in low cost or (proper) social housing so forget there ever being anything meaningful being conducted to address it.

5) The future of REITS is under debate after the fall out from CP18/27 and the resulting emergence of things like LTAFs to sidestep the changes. In short, the market for property funds might shrink massively for retail investors. It's already closed to offshore bond investors. So, I just don't see it happening. Aviva has closed its huge property fund and is winding it up: yes, I know that was entirely commercial but the fact remains that regulation is driving investors away from property held via collectives.

[Tichtheid]

Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.

It's a tricky one, a serious conversation on the subject is nigh on impossible, that was shown by Farage standing in front of a poster depicting a huge queue of people supposedly (incorrectly) waiting to get into the UK.

Labour probably knows that the Tory press will play that card in the lead up to the next election, they should have worked out a grown-up response to populist racism by now.

They probably shouldn't cede the argument to the racist populists.

I actually think it's pretty reasonable for Labour to be talking about deportations. Whether you are pro or anti immigration, deportation is something that the UK is quite bad at and is an important part of the policy toolkit for managing migration.

I tend to agree on both counts, my point is really that a nuanced debate is shouted out in many topics, and this is a particularly emotive one.
Labour have to put forward proposals that are humane and address whatever problems are there.

Patel seemed to be all for sinking rubber dinghies in the channel whilst allowing hundreds of thousands of people through Heathrow unchecked in the midst of a pandemic.

[Hal Jordan]

Egypt has now issued a personal invitation to King Charles III to attend COP27...

[dpedin]

Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!

[SaintK]

Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!

I gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.

Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.

[tabascoboy]

Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!

When driving ideology is more important than the people whose lives it is supposed to improve ( except the top 1% earners of course )

[Lobby]

Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!

I gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.

Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.

I assume her speech was so short and devoid of substance because they had to rip out any new policy or tax announcements yesterday after the response to her and Khamikarzi's disastrous budget. This would also account for it being so poorly written - too many advisors making last minute adjustments of the 'best we don't mention that bit right now' type.

I'm sure she originally intended to cement her place as PM with a triumphant speech to the Tory faithful, but instead had to concentrate on not making any more fuck-ups and not spooking the markets any more than she and Kwarteng have already. After the last few days, she is also probably aware that most of her MPs are part of the 'anti-growth' coalition and won't be voting in favour of her 'revolution'.

Oh and she lied about being the first PM from a comprehensive school. Both Brown and May went to comprehensives.

[SaintK]

Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!

I gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.

Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.

I assume her speech was so short and devoid of substance because they had to rip out any new policy or tax announcements yesterday after the response to her and Khamikarzi's disastrous budget. This would also account for it being so poorly written - too many advisors making last minute adjustments of the 'best we don't mention that bit right now' type.

I'm sure she originally intended to cement her place as PM with a triumphant speech to the Tory faithful, but instead had to concentrate on not making any more fuck-ups and not spooking the markets any more than she and Kwarteng have already. After the last few days, she is also probably aware that most of her MPs are part of the 'anti-growth' coalition and won't be voting in favour of her 'revolution'.

Oh and she lied about being the first PM from a comprehensive school. Both Brown and May went to comprehensives.

Think the general concensus from the Lobby was that she did ok, targetted nit at her audience and didn't say anytrhing new but more importantly didn't make any more fuck ups

[tabascoboy]

Look lads, stop griping - just need to get out and grow the pie.

[C69]

If this dumb fuck knew anything about change management she would realise for change to happen there needs to be open and honest dialogue and a system wide approach.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Cheese, pork markets and now pie growing. This is a lady who can stomach a food reference or two

An oddly short speech however, did she really have nothing to say about Brexit, climate, the rise of autocracy, homes, energy, transport, inflation.. the idiot down the pub can list problems, beyond growing pies it'd be nice to know what she's actually going to do about all of the problems

[sockwithaticket]

Look lads, stop griping - just need to get out and grow the pie.

And yet all her policy announcements so far seem aimed at keeping the pie the same size at best and making sure that a small number of people with the right connections and income bracket get a larger amount of it at the expense of everyone else.

[tabascoboy]

Sadly the orthodoxy of baking pies rather than "growing" them led to this closure today, pork market overhype?

UK pork-pie firm Vale of Mowbray collapses under market challenges

As part of the administration process, FRP partner Martyn Pullin said Vale of Mowbray’s two freehold factories in Leeming Bar will be sold, along with machinery and intellectual property rights.

“The Vale of Mowbray was a proud family business with a loved brand that has been synonymous with pork pies for generations. But the increasingly difficult trading conditions being experienced by many energy and labour-intensive manufacturing businesses have ultimately led to the business’ closure,” Pullin added.

[Biffer]

To over extend her metaphor, pies don't grow, they have to be made. You can't just stand in the kitchen, turn the oven on, stand back and shout that you've put the conditions in place for the pie to be made. You have to put the effort into making it.

[tabascoboy]

It's very Alan Partridge: "The proof is in the pie! And the pie in this case...is a football"

[Torquemada 1420]

LMAO

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/liz-t ... 36479.html

[tabascoboy]

Who are the new breed of Tories going to fight against in this "Anti-Growth Coalition"?