COVID-19 in SOUTH AFRICA

[Sandstorm]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

You're married?

[OomStruisbaai]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

Sorry to hear. Stay strong Boet.

[OomStruisbaai]

Republic of Western Cape

Cape Town - Covid-19 hospitalisations in the Western Cape have dropped below the 1000 mark.

This was stated in the daily Covid-19 provincial update provided by Premier Alan Winde.


As many as 999 people have been hospitalised with Covid-19 and 197 are in ICU or high care.

The province reported 5017 active cases of Covid-19, 102698 confirmed cases and 93920 recoveries as of 1pm on Tuesday. The death toll stood at 3761.

To date, as many as 471059 Covid-19 tests have been conducted. There are 2166 confirmed cases unallocated with 2081 recoveries.

Winde said the drop in Covid-19 hospitalisations was a first since the start of June.

“At the same time, ICU numbers have also dropped below 200 and the province has recorded fewer than 20 deaths per day on a number of days over the past week. These are really positive signs that we have weathered the worst of the Covid-19 storm in the province,” he said.

Yesterday, large numbers of people were seen queuing outside liquor stores after false information was shared on social media announcing the re-banning alcohol sales.

Winde said he has not been informed of any decision by the national government on liquor and no meetings with the provincial government was scheduled to discuss it.

He cautioned against spreading fake news and urged all to act and drink responsibly.

“The Western Cape government lobbied hard for the reopening of alcohol sales because we believe it's important to save thousands of jobs in agri-processing, and the hospitality industries and their supply chains.


"We're committed to smart interventions but these must go hand-in-hand with individual responsibility to reduce the harmful impacts of alcohol on our society.”

Cape Argus

[assfly]

Yikes. Good luck to him chief.

[Blake]

I saw on Facebook that a former bored member also tested positive. Okay now, but on blood thinning medication after being in hospital for a week.

Scary.

[OomStruisbaai]

I saw on Facebook that a former bored member also tested positive. Okay now, but on blood thinning medication after being in hospital for a week.

Scary.

Who is this Blake?

[TheNatalShark]

So what's happening re the Currie Cup start? Nothing on Supersport and know the teams are just back training from their social media accounts.

Either way it is great going into it with a trophy in the bag.

[OomStruisbaai]

So what's happening re the Currie Cup start? Nothing on Supersport and know the teams are just back training from their social media accounts.

Either way it is great going into it with a trophy in the bag.

I am worried about this. Dunno if it's the stupid laws now or politicians trying to boycott rugby or politics in SARU.

[TheNatalShark]

I recall on the Sharks feed that in level 2 contact rugby was allowed to resume, but would have thought that would have meant a plan was in place already to resume.

[handyman]

So what's happening re the Currie Cup start? Nothing on Supersport and know the teams are just back training from their social media accounts.

Either way it is great going into it with a trophy in the bag.

Hi sards.

[assfly]

So what's happening re the Currie Cup start? Nothing on Supersport and know the teams are just back training from their social media accounts.

Either way it is great going into it with a trophy in the bag.

Welcome, friend.

Yes I agree, would be great to the the 2020 Super Rugby champions* in action chasing another trophy.

[TheNatalShark]

So... what's happening re the Currie Cup start??.. Haven't beaten WP enough times yet this season. Nothing on Supersport... and the teams are all training from the font of all facts that is social media. Apart from WP... who are still in the food stamps queue.

Either way it is great going into it with a trophy in the bag... btw how many trophies to the Stomps have?

Hi sards.

I think I've amended appropriately.

[Blake]

I saw on Facebook that a former bored member also tested positive. Okay now, but on blood thinning medication after being in hospital for a week.

Scary.

Who is this Blake?

Since it is a private medical matter, I don't want to divulge it publicly.
Much loved poster that I think flounced before you joined the bored.

[handyman]

I saw on Facebook that a former bored member also tested positive. Okay now, but on blood thinning medication after being in hospital for a week.

Scary.

Who is this Blake?

Since it is a private medical matter, I don't want to divulge it publicly.
Much loved poster that I think flounced before you joined the bored.

Surely if it's on Facebook, it's pretty much common knowledge. Nonetheless, I hope he/she recovers completely.

[‘tsek]

Maybe I missed something obvious, but how is it that the PSL was allowed to restart on 11 August bit still no date has been set for rugby? 32 sides have restarted (top two divisions).

Is it lack of goodwill or lack of preparation?

Should Rachel Kolisi tweet about it?

[Fangle]

I saw on Facebook that a former bored member also tested positive. Okay now, but on blood thinning medication after being in hospital for a week.

Scary.

Who is this Blake?

Since it is a private medical matter, I don't want to divulge it publicly.
Much loved poster that I think flounced before you joined the bored.

Much loved? rubberStamp?

[OomStruisbaai]

Maybe I missed something obvious, but how is it that the PSL was allowed to restart on 11 August bit still no date has been set for rugby? 32 sides have restarted (top two divisions).

Is it lack of goodwill or lack of preparation?

Should Rachel Kolisi tweet about it?

Blame it on apartheid

[Blake]

Maybe I missed something obvious, but how is it that the PSL was allowed to restart on 11 August bit still no date has been set for rugby? 32 sides have restarted (top two divisions).

Is it lack of goodwill or lack of preparation?

They are completely different sports with different risk profiles. Rugby is probably one of the highest risk sports for covid along with basketball and cricket. Unless all players are kept in a bubble and away from the general public, one infected asymptomatic player could theoretically very easily infect his own team and another team.

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

.Cape Town – South Africa has recorded 115 more Covid-19 related deaths, bringing the total number of deaths to 13 743 on Friday.


A total of 47 people were killed in Gauteng, 14 in KwaZulu-Natal, 10 in the Eastern Cape, 10 in the Western Cape, 16 in North West and 18 in Mpumalanga, said Health Minister Zweli Mkhize in a statement.

’’As of today, a cumulative total of 620 132 confirmed Covid-19 cases in South Africa have been recorded.

“Our recoveries now stand at 533 935, which translates to a recovery rate of 86%.

[Rinkals]

Maybe I missed something obvious, but how is it that the PSL was allowed to restart on 11 August bit still no date has been set for rugby? 32 sides have restarted (top two divisions).

Is it lack of goodwill or lack of preparation?

They are completely different sports with different risk profiles. Rugby is probably one of the highest risk sports for covid along with basketball and cricket. Unless all players are kept in a bubble and away from the general public, one infected asymptomatic player could theoretically very easily infect his own team and another team.

It would seem that hockey is more risk prone than rugby. I'm not sure I understand why, but the upshot is that, although rugby is supposed to be returning early next month, hockey will probably be a month or so behind.

[Blake]

It would seem that hockey is more risk prone than rugby. I'm not sure I understand why, but the upshot is that, although rugby is supposed to be returning early next month, hockey will probably be a month or so behind.

I’m not sure how the authorities assess the risk, but I would say that sports where all players physically handle the same ball/object with their bare hards (rugby, basketball) and sports where players are physically in close contact for extended periods (rugby rucks, mauls & scrums, wrestling, MMA) are the highest risk categories.

Hockey and soccer are probably in the medium risk category IMO. Team sports where members handle the same ball, but not with their hands.

I know next to nothing about the hokey organization in SA. All I know is that they are often In the news for being cash-strapped. Could it not just be that they don’t have the means to put some of the protocols including frequent player testing and player isolation into place. Isn’t the entire player-base semi-pro or amateur? If so it would be impossible to effectively isolate them.

[OomStruisbaai]

Rugby is back.
IOL

.SA Rugby ’to confirm playing schedule soon’ after government approves contact training
By Mike Greenaway Time of article published Aug 28, 2020


DURBAN - South African rugby woke up to a significant boost when the governmental green light for a return to full-contact was issued.

The country’s players will relish at last being able to get fully stuck in at training, from early next week after final health checks have been completed.


That means the Bulls, Lions, Sharks, Stormers, Cheetahs, Pumas and Griquas are now only a few weeks away from playing each other in a competition that SA Rugby is yet to launch.

There is strong speculation that the Super Rugby franchises will first play each other in mini competition and then a Currie Cup will follow. It is accepted that players need at least three to four weeks of contact training to get match ready.

SA Rugby CEO Jurie Roux welcomed the development: “The teams have been hard at work with non-contact training for the past five weeks, and once a final Covid-19 test has been passed, they will be able to step up a gear next week.


‘We are moving in the right direction and I would like to urge all rugby supporters and members of the wider South African rugby family to bear with us as we plan the way forward for the next couple of weeks.

“With the guidance of Government and with us working very hard with our various stakeholders, we’ve knuckled down and plotted our return to competitive action, which is getting closer every day. But we’re also very mindful of the pitfalls associated with this and we know things can change overnight.”

Super Rugby was halted in late March this year, meaning it will be at least six months that the players will not have played the game, with a likely start to matches being the weekend of September 18-19.

“Once we’ve finalised all the relevant plans and we’ve aligned with our broadcast partner, sponsors, franchises and other stakeholders, we’ll confirm the playing schedule,” Roux concluded.

[OomStruisbaai]

so far so good
IOL

SA’s confirmed Covid-19 cases now at 625 056
South Africa has recorded 2 505 new Covid-19 cases and 47 new deaths of the past 24 hours, the national Department of Health confirmed on Sunday.

Cumulatively the country now has 625 056 confirmed Covid-19 cases.

Gauteng remains the province with the highest number of cases, with KwaZulu-Natal in second place and the Western Cape, which for nearly three months was the epicentre of the pandemic, in third place.

The Northern Cape, with 10 568 cases, has the lowest cumulative number of infections.

Deaths

The latest deaths, 3 from KwaZulu-Natal,16 from Gauteng, 7 from the Eastern Cape, 7 from the Western Cape, 3 from Free State and 11 from Mpumalanga, brings the death toll since the start of the outbreak to 14 028.


Recoveries

While South Africa has been the hardest hit African country, the recovery rate has been encouraging. The country has registered 538 604 recoveries, which equates to a recovery rate of 86%.

Testing

The total number of tests conducted countrywide currently stands at 3 674 872, with 21 902 new tests having been conducted over the past 24 hours.

According to the daily data released by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, testing in the private sector remains far higher that at state institutions, despite the massive community screening and testing initiatives government has been running.

IOL

[Blake]

I’m not sure why everybody is making a fuss of the recovery rate. It’s a meaningless stat.

We know that unless the hospital system gets overrun, over a long enough timeline the recovery rate will trend to 98-99%.

It’s a feelgood number that conveys nothing useful.
The only numbers that should matter are:
- new infections (which we can’t accurately test)
- deaths (which are likely understated)
- test positivity rate
- hospital admissions by province
- hospital capacity by province

As long as we can keep the hospital capacity at below 80% the death rate should be below 2%. That should be our focus.

[Fangle]

The more they get to know how to treat the virus, the better the recovery rate will be.

Not now, but maybe in a year or two, as vaccines are found and treatment improves, it could well turn out to be no more lethal than flu.

But, like Trogs, I do feel for people who live hand to mouth. I could see that if I were in that position I could take the gamble and risk exposure to keep food on the table.

[Blake]

The more they get to know how to treat the virus, the better the recovery rate will be.

Not now, but maybe in a year or two, as vaccines are found and treatment improves, it could well turn out to be no more lethal than flu.

But, like Trogs, I do feel for people who live hand to mouth. I could see that if I were in that position I could take the gamble and risk exposure to keep food on the table.

Yep, agree on all accounts.

The strides made by the medical community and researchers in such a short period has been truly astonishing. We are in such a better position now than we were in March/April, that it can't be compared.

Which is why I personally find it so frustrating when people downplay the massive contribution the lockdowns had in getting us here, and rather see it as some kind of vindication of their original belief that the whole thing was overhyped. It just isn't true. There were at least 3 "control groups" where we could see what happens without lockdown; Northen Italy, Iran, New York City. Utter devastation until lockdowns were implemented. Imagine that on a global scale where all the frontline workers are so busy trying to cope with the surge of patients and getting sick themselves, that there is little to no opportunity to do research and share effective treatment protocols. The various lockdowns provided the needed time and the WHO was critical in coordinating all of these global information sharing efforts.

Sure, the messaging could have been better and more consistent, but the body of knowledge was developing in real time and the experts were making decisions on the fly. Mistakes happen. What really became apparent to me (as if I didn't know it already) is how uncomfortable the general public is with imperfect information, and how data illiterate many have become.

Similarly, I think government criticism of regulations, responses and communication in many places, especially South Africa, is warranted. I have no doubt that "Lockdown" was needed, but what "Lockdown" should have entailed (in retrospect) is worthy of debate. We managed to botch quite a lot and we will be paying for it for generations to come. Ditto the USA response. Hopefully we'll all do it better next time, because there will be a next time.

[Sandstorm]

The more they get to know how to treat the virus, the better the recovery rate will be.

Not now, but maybe in a year or two, as vaccines are found and treatment improves, it could well turn out to be no more lethal than flu.

Covid lethality will likely equal normal flu numbers by next year, HOWEVER it's the long-term damage to your vascular system for recovered patients that is a worry.
Even "really bad flu" doesn't have long term effects for survivors, you get over it and within weeks are back to 100%.

This virus is a different bastard.

[Blake]

The more they get to know how to treat the virus, the better the recovery rate will be.

Not now, but maybe in a year or two, as vaccines are found and treatment improves, it could well turn out to be no more lethal than flu.

Covid lethality will likely equal normal flu numbers by next year, HOWEVER it's the long-term damage to your vascular system for recovered patients that is a worry.
Even "really bad flu" doesn't have long term effects for survivors, you get over it and within weeks are back to 100%.

This virus is a different bastard.

Possibly yes, BUT although case fatality rates may end up being roughly similar, Corona virus seems to be significantly more contagious.
And the 8-14 day incubation period coupled with asymptomatic transmission makes it a real bastard. At least with flu you feel like shit 2 days in, most people stay home, and you stop spreading it.
This fucker seems to be 5-6 times more contagious, so will likely infect way more people annually and stack up a bigger death toll, even if the % of infected people that succumb ends up being in the same 0.1 - 0.2% range.

The breakthroughs I'm waiting for is a safe vaccine and for the medical researches to figure out why exactly some people are asymptomatic, and if it can be replicated.
Alternatively, we need it to mutate into a more contagious, but less virulent strain...like the one that was just discovered in Indonesia. That would also work.
But those are the keys to getting back to normal.

Also, spot on on the long term effects. Those blood clots are going to cause a bunch of deaths as well...strokes and heart attacks are definitely going to rise, as well as permanent lung damage.

[Fangle]

Is that a “Grow a spine” emoji?

[Sandstorm]

This fucker seems to be 5-6 times more contagious, so will likely infect way more people annually and stack up a bigger death toll, even if the % of infected people that succumb ends up being in the same 0.1 - 0.2% range.

But surely it's only 6 times more contagious because it's brand new? I know 1 year isn't long enough for herd immunity, but we'll get there.

Vaccine against a virus.....hmmmm.

I don't really believe that the current range of flu vaccines has much effect against flu. It's just a money-making racket *tin foil hat on*

[Sandstorm]

Is that a “Grow a spine” emoji?

I dunno....I guess.

It's new anyway and I wanted use it 'cos I can see Bulldog shouting "You cuuuuuunt!!!" at the Covid virus trying to enjoy his pint in a pub.

[OomStruisbaai]

Is that a “Grow a spine” emoji?

Nah its Rinkie

[Sandstorm]

Is that a “Grow a spine” emoji?

Nah its Rinkie

[Blake]

This fucker seems to be 5-6 times more contagious, so will likely infect way more people annually and stack up a bigger death toll, even if the % of infected people that succumb ends up being in the same 0.1 - 0.2% range.

But surely it's only 6 times more contagious because it's brand new? I know 1 year isn't long enough for herd immunity, but we'll get there.

You are probably right.
My understanding is that without intervention (lockdown, masks or a vaccine) SARS-COV2 has an estimated R0 of between 5 and 6.
Partly due to no herd immunity existing, but also because of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread. Herd immunity will help to get that down, but with vaccine resistance being what it is today that might take years...polio has taken decades. Also, we don't know how long immunity lasts, so yeah.

Maybe we can get that R0 down, but even if we can, we are unlikely to get it as low as flu's which is between 1 and 2.

[Sandstorm]

Partly due to no herd immunity existing, but also because of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread.

Since we never test for flu, we don't know if asymptomatic spread happens. I suspect it does all the time. It's just a less lethal virus.

[Blake]

Partly due to no herd immunity existing, but also because of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread.

Since we never test for flu, we don't know if asymptomatic spread happens. I suspect it does all the time. It's just a less lethal virus.

I've never really bothered to study up on flu the way I've done with Covid over the last couple of months.
Never thought about it that way. Did some reading and some influenza strains do indeed have asymptomatic shedding, if only for 3-4 days; so hopefully you are right on your other prediction.

[Fangle]

In the early stages of this virus I was expecting that a certain number of older family members would contact it and die. Including me as I’m at a higher risk level. But we didn’t live in New York, so we didn’t have a governor who insisted that vulnerable old people should be shoved into nursing homes. So far no older person I know has yet got infected. My only cousin who died fairly recently was killed on his farm and hacked to pieces, before the virus arrived.

[OomStruisbaai]

In the early stages of this virus I was expecting that a certain number of older family members would contact it and die. Including me as I’m at a higher risk level. But we didn’t live in New York, so we didn’t have a governor who insisted that vulnerable old people should be shoved into nursing homes. So far no older person I know has yet got infected. My only cousin who died fairly recently was killed on his farm and hacked to pieces, before the virus arrived.

Sorry Boet, that's really kak.

[Sards]

Can't bother obsessing about Covid.

Maybe it was the flu vaccine we took prior to lockdown....who knows. The cold atm is more a concern.

Damn I feel for my animals. Especially the two lizards. They get so cold that they can't move. You literally have to move them under the heat lamps.

[Big Nipper]

Can't bother obsessing about Covid.

Maybe it was the flu vaccine we took prior to lockdown....who knows. The cold atm is more a concern.

Damn I feel for my animals. Especially the two lizards. They get so cold that they can't move. You literally have to move them under the heat lamps.

So let me get this straight, the cold and it's effect on your pet lizard is more of a concern than the deadliest pandemic in 100yrs?

That is fucked up