So, coronavirus...

Where goats go to escape
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

The CCP has started to pivot
Spoiler
Show
Covid-19 is now no more serious than a seasonal cold and there is no need to panic", Guangzhou health authorities sought to assure the public, as pandemic controls were relaxed in several districts of the southern Chinese factory hub despite rising caseloads. The officials underline reduced virulence of Omicron and its subvariants.

• Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan has said Omicron is more transmissible but less deadly, signalling a new chapter in China’s pandemic response.

• As different cities around China have eased testing requirements in line with more “targeted & optimized” anti-Covid measures (see today’s subpost for an overview), it is clear that the messaging about the current perceived state of the virus is changing.

• Hospitals in many provinces in China have announced that their nucleic acid testing services will no longer be available to the general public without a medical need. More information in today's subpost.

Several major cities nationwide have eased testing requirements in line with more “targeted” anti-Covid measures urged by the central leadership, as the country battles its largest outbreak since the spring.

In a public service message broadcast on Friday, a group of health experts in Guangzhou said symptoms caused by the Omicron subvariants behind the current wave were very mild and similar to those for seasonal colds. “The virulence of the new coronavirus [Omicron] has now evolved to the level of the seasonal flu, and some are even less virulent than the flu, so you really don’t need to panic,” said Tang Xiaoping, director of the No 8 People’s Hospital in Guangzhou and head of the national key clinical department of infectious diseases.

Guangzhou reported 4,922 infections on Saturday. Total cases in the wave since late October have reached 162,700, with 90 per cent of them asymptomatic. Only four cases were classified as “severe and critical”, and no deaths were recorded, Guangzhou health commission deputy director Zhang Yi said on Friday. “This shows that the virulence of the Omicron variant is significantly lower than previous original strains and other mutant strains,” she said.

“This is not only the characteristic of the Omicron mutant strain, but also related to the improvement of the population’s vaccination immunity and the active prevention measures adopted by our country.” Tang noted that more than 90 per cent of infected patients had no symptoms and mild cases received the same treatment as that for flu. “Many of my friends were also infected with the coronavirus, but they soon recovered without special treatment. So I’d like to tell the general public that you should not panic too much,” he said.


Zhang Zhongde, director of the Guangdong Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, said Omicron mainly affected only the upper respiratory tract. “The symptoms of the Omicron can be said to be ‘flu-like’, and milder than some severe flu cases,” he said.

Guangzhou authorities have asked hospitals and pharmacies to let people in as long as they can show a green health code on China’s app-based Covid tracking system. But patients seeking hospitalisation and their attendants are still required to provide a negative PCR result from within the previous 24 hours.

Source: SCMP
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

If China starts to open up it's good news for the world economy. Supply problems will ease and they may end up putting pressure on Putin to stop what he's doing in Ukraine, in order to ease energy prices and international trade.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
User avatar
Tichtheid
Posts: 9401
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:18 am

Ymx wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:35 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:23 pm
Ymx wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:15 pm I’m having my regular top up. Just a bit of a cold really.

A fair bit of it going around by the sounds.

No need for boosters. It’s here to stay, and does the rounds quite frequently. Like a cold.

I'd say more like 'flu, for which we get seasonal vaccinations. That's the way I see it going for Covid, annual vaccinations for the over 50s and vulnerable groups.
50 is a bit young …. Ahem !

Do you think it will stop circulating in the summer months? I had thought it was more an all year round thing, with a new variant emerging regularly, spreading freely (globally) and with no vaccine which stops it in its tracks.

But I do expect the elderly (you and dpedin) should keep taking boosters unless they’ve had the thing recently to ensure a robust defence to it.

I missed this :lol: :thumbup:


There is a tipping point for age, I think when you go from "he fell over" to "he's had a fall", that's when you collect your "Elderly" credentials.
I'm not quite there yet.

I was given a flu jab around age 30 when my children were little and I had taken them in for their MMR jabs, the nurse said I should have it because I wouldn't be much use to the kids if I caught flu, so I accepted it. I think I've had flu once in my teens and once in my twenties, it was rotten so I was happy to accept the vaccination.

Though I don’t see it being a long term thing for the human race. Many have experienced it and fought it off so many times now, it’s just part of the ecosystem now. We are successfully living with it.

Covid infections do go down in the summer months, especially really hot summers like we've had this year. I seem to recall (though always open to correction) that UV light kills the virus, plus more people are out and about rather than in enclosed spaces.
There was some hope that new variants and strains would become weaker, or less life-threatening, I suppose it's still early days in that respect.

I can't really find comparable data for flu, but very roughly speaking, Covid has proved fatal in 1 in 113 cases in the UK - does anyone know what the comparable figures for flu are? I suppose it varies with the strain which is circulating.
User avatar
Marylandolorian
Posts: 1249
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:47 pm
Location: Amerikanuak

↕️
As November 20th In the US the CDC estimates that there have been at least 6.2 million illnesses, 53,000 hospitalizations and 2,900 deaths from influenza so far this season
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:20 pm I can't really find comparable data for flu, but very roughly speaking, Covid has proved fatal in 1 in 113 cases in the UK - does anyone know what the comparable figures for flu are? I suppose it varies with the strain which is circulating.
113 is for unvaccinated and just for the original strains right?

isn’t omicron significantly less dangerous than delta/alpha on unvaccinated individuals? Pretty sure it was significantly less than omicron. This was a known stat very early on when it came out in Africa. Or am I imagining a study?

Obviously there was a large difference between vaccinated vs unvaccinated death rates in the original strains.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Ultimately, the risk of covid-19 related death was found to be 66% lower in people infected with omicron than in those with delta, similar to the 69% lower risk reported by Nyberg and colleagues.4
This one more relevant

https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1806

So if we plug that in to your 1 in 113 for delta

It’s 1 in 330 for omicron
User avatar
Tichtheid
Posts: 9401
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:18 am

Ymx wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:45 pm
Ultimately, the risk of covid-19 related death was found to be 66% lower in people infected with omicron than in those with delta, similar to the 69% lower risk reported by Nyberg and colleagues.4
This one more relevant

https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1806

So if we plug that in to your 1 in 113 for delta

It’s 1 in 330 for omicron

I was being very rough with the figures, I just took the number of cases in the UK and divided by the number of deaths, no filters.

I was just trying to compare it at a headline level to flu, to be honest.
robmatic
Posts: 2097
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:46 am



This thread from Trevor Bedford is quite interesting and concludes that the risk of death is now similar to flu.
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:20 pm There is a tipping point for age, I think when you go from "he fell over" to "he's had a fall", that's when you collect your "Elderly" credentials.
I'm not quite there yet.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
User avatar
Tichtheid
Posts: 9401
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:18 am

Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:42 am
Tichtheid wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:20 pm There is a tipping point for age, I think when you go from "he fell over" to "he's had a fall", that's when you collect your "Elderly" credentials.
I'm not quite there yet.
In Scotland, of course, we cowp ower.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

robmatic wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:05 am

This thread from Trevor Bedford is quite interesting and concludes that the risk of death is now similar to flu.
The IFR if accurate is good news. It would be interesting to see this broken down by vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. I suspect that covid vaccinations is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here? Wonder if they have similar info on deaths from flu broken down by who has had/not had flu jab as well?

PS No followed up on link so the info may well be available?
User avatar
Tichtheid
Posts: 9401
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:18 am

dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:03 am
robmatic wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:05 am

This thread from Trevor Bedford is quite interesting and concludes that the risk of death is now similar to flu.
The IFR if accurate is good news. It would be interesting to see this broken down by vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. I suspect that covid vaccinations is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here? Wonder if they have similar info on deaths from flu broken down by who has had/not had flu jab as well?

PS No followed up on link so the info may well be available?

I have a friend who is having a terrible time with long covid. He caught it before the vaccination was available. He's 60, barley able to walk for more than ten minutes. He actually conked out in the doctor's surgery recently and the doc had to thump his chest to bring him back.

Long Covid is going to be "a thing" for a while, I think.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Tichtheid wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:12 am
dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:03 am
robmatic wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:05 am

This thread from Trevor Bedford is quite interesting and concludes that the risk of death is now similar to flu.
The IFR if accurate is good news. It would be interesting to see this broken down by vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. I suspect that covid vaccinations is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here? Wonder if they have similar info on deaths from flu broken down by who has had/not had flu jab as well?

PS No followed up on link so the info may well be available?

I have a friend who is having a terrible time with long covid. He caught it before the vaccination was available. He's 60, barley able to walk for more than ten minutes. He actually conked out in the doctor's surgery recently and the doc had to thump his chest to bring him back.

Long Covid is going to be "a thing" for a while, I think.
All the evidence points towards long covid being a sizeable and ongoing problem, particularly but not just older age groups. We are already seeing this in the labour market with the number of economically inactive in 50+ age groups leaving the labour force some of which is driven by long covid or inability to access age related healthcare due to the impact of covid on NHS ie long waits for hip/knee replacements, cataract removals, etc. 5-10 year recovery timescale from what I've been told, and this is based on some pretty heroic assumptions about a stable NHS workforce, growing elective capacity, etc.

I've two mates who have contracted covid - one it is his second dose the other his first. We played golf 10 days ago and had meal and drinks together, however both then went to a funeral the next day which I didn't attend before we had more beers and food together. Looks like they bumped into someone infectious at funeral and they themselves weren't infectious the next day when we were together. Whilst I managed to avoid it they are both are still feeling really shit a week+ after testing positive, the mate for whom it is his second dose saying this is much much worse than his first. Thankfully both are fully vaccinated x4 so should be ok. However lots of folk around me in Embra going down with covid and most seem to be ill/off work for a couple of weeks or more.

Also looks like the flu season has started earlier this year and NHS already getting clogged up with flu patients and suffering from staff absences. This is not unexpected and there was some planning in place based on flu surveillance from SH. Doesn't make it any easier to manage the impact though. Get jabbed and dont get ill.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Hopefully it will all settle by next year after the unknown sacrifice to the health of our children, for the sake of others.

Our school and many of the schools nearby are so full of illness, fevers, it’s ludicrous.

My daughter just coming right from one herself.

Thank god we ignored those wanting the continuation of ph measures and/or lockdowns.
By Sunetra Gupta


I am used to viewing infectious disease from an ecological perspective. Therefore, it did not come as much of a surprise to me that some non-Covid seasonal respiratory diseases almost immediately started to take a knock on the head during lockdown. Many took this to be an indication that lockdowns were working to stop the spread of disease, forgetting that the impact of lockdowns on already established or “endemic” diseases is completely different to the impact on a new disease in its “epidemic” phase. 

It is worth explaining this. For an individual, “immunity debt” can be interpreted as a gap in the level of protection that you might be expected to have from previous exposure to the disease in question. The same principle also applies to a whole population. This is because there is a threshold of immunity in the population at which rates of new infections start to decline — known as the herd immunity threshold. If we are below this threshold, we are in immunity debt; if we are above it, we are in credit — at least for a while.

With endemic diseases, we go into immunity debt as winter sets in and the herd immunity threshold (which is determined by the transmissibility of the pathogen) rises. This causes a seasonal increase in infection and leaves us in credit for the rest of the season. Over the summer, the numbers immune fall, leaving us again with an “immunity debt” in the winter. Any small change to the transmissibility of the pathogen will disrupt the rhythm and can cause these pathogens to disappear by reducing the Herd Immunity Threshold and so transiently cancelling their normal “immunity debt”. 

A pathogen entering an immunologically naïve population will start off with a massive “immunity debt”, leading to infections growing very rapidly at this ‘epidemic’ stage. This is why lockdowns hardly make a dent in the progress of an epidemic, but can have such a significant effect on endemic diseases.

Such effects are, however, transient. Endemic diseases will soon re-establish themselves, and – as we have seen – can return more aggressively than usual on account of the “immunity debt” they have amassed in the interim.

This can cause all sorts of problems. Naturally, health care systems will have to be prepared for higher than usual hospitalisations during this period of re-adjustment. It is a particularly troublesome task for the NHS, which continues to struggle with capacity problems. 

Furthermore, the synchronised rise in these suppressed infections enhances the possibility of coinfection; this has been recognised as a potential cause of a spate of adenovirus infection related deaths earlier this year. And if the likelihood of clinical complications increases with age, there will be obvious perverse consequences of delaying infection.

It is hard to say which of these potential mechanisms is the key contributor to the very unfortunate re-emergence of scarlet fever as a cause of severe disease and death in young children in the UK. Group A Streptococcus, its causative agent, exists within a complex network of other bacterial species which also may have suffered changes in composition as result of Covid lockdowns. Disturbing this order can have a profound impact on an individual’s ability to resist disease.

More than anything, it is clear that we are experiencing an entirely predictable perturbation in our finely balanced ecological relationship with the organisms which are capable of causing serious disease.

Eventually that balance will return. The “immunity debt” that we have incurred will be gruesomely paid off and scarlet fever will once again become a storybook word.

Sunetra Gupta is professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford 
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ed-states/

Interesting article - worth a read.

Go get jabbed!
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10890
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

I'm quad-jabbed and I still got (suspected) Strep A this week. :mad: :mad:
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:52 am Hopefully it will all settle by next year after the unknown sacrifice to the health of our children, for the sake of others.

Our school and many of the schools nearby are so full of illness, fevers, it’s ludicrous.

My daughter just coming right from one herself.

Thank god we ignored those wanting the continuation of ph measures and/or lockdowns.
User avatar
Uncle fester
Posts: 4196
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:42 pm

Quite remarkable what's happening in China.
Long after the rest of the world has moved on, they are still struggling to get to grips with it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-p ... um=twitter

Closer to home, our elderly neighbours got it. Both in their 80's and vaccinated. The wife has early stage Alzheimer's and sadly it looks like that's done a fast forward now.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:54 pm I'm quad-jabbed and I still got (suspected) Strep A this week. :mad: :mad:
Only 4. Pffffftt. You need more jabs. You should be taking them monthly by now, like dpedin is.

That will keep you and others around you safe.

Don’t forget to wear a mask at all times 😷


Image

Especially if you share a shower.

👍
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

He argues the increase in respiratory illnesses is due to

1. Reduced circulation of bugs during the pandemic having led to lower population immunisation ('immunity debt')

Rather than "long covid" causing peole to be immunocompromised.

I'm not sure if we're seeing the same pattern here in SA.
I've not noticed it anyway. But what I did notice was that lots of little kids developed a persistent cough when they were forced to wear a mask at school all day, even when playing outside. It was an idiotic policy, one of many.
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:15 am He argues the increase in respiratory illnesses is due to

1. Reduced circulation of bugs during the pandemic having led to lower population immunisation ('immunity debt')

Rather than "long covid" causing peole to be immunocompromised.

I'm not sure if we're seeing the same pattern here in SA.
I've not noticed it anyway. But what I did notice was that lots of little kids developed a persistent cough when they were forced to wear a mask at school all day, even when playing outside. It was an idiotic policy, one of many.
I'm going to point out a subtle difference. He's saying there are two main reasonings being put forward and that he thinks the evidence looks like reduced exposure is more likely.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Uncle fester wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:03 am Quite remarkable what's happening in China.
Long after the rest of the world has moved on, they are still struggling to get to grips with it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-p ... um=twitter

Closer to home, our elderly neighbours got it. Both in their 80's and vaccinated. The wife has early stage Alzheimer's and sadly it looks like that's done a fast forward now.
The vaccines may not prevent contracting covid but it does significantly reduce the severity of it and the chances of likely serious illness, death or long covid. There is now huge a body of research to support this. Unfortunately any illness in someone in their 80s is serious to some extent which is why it is best they try minimising chances of exposure to covid or flu for that matter over the winter season.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:18 am
Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:15 am He argues the increase in respiratory illnesses is due to

1. Reduced circulation of bugs during the pandemic having led to lower population immunisation ('immunity debt')

Rather than "long covid" causing peole to be immunocompromised.

I'm not sure if we're seeing the same pattern here in SA.
I've not noticed it anyway. But what I did notice was that lots of little kids developed a persistent cough when they were forced to wear a mask at school all day, even when playing outside. It was an idiotic policy, one of many.
I'm going to point out a subtle difference. He's saying there are two main reasonings being put forward and that he thinks the evidence looks like reduced exposure is more likely.
Can we be very careful about using the term 'immunity debt' as it is used by many to wrongly try and explain a whole range of things. Individuals do not develop an 'immunity debt' - your immunity doesn't wear out due to lack of exposure to bugs, viruses, etc it is working the whole time lock down or not lock down, masks or not masks, it is pretty resilient and doesn't stop working just because you have a mask on. Indeed children were probably the one part of the community that continued to have a higher degree of social contact given schools etc were only closed down for very short periods over the last 3 years so using the idea of immunity debt in this cohort is just plain wrong. Immunity debt is not a recognisable term in immunology and only appeared during the last few years to help some dodgy folk promote a dodgy agenda ie lock downs were bad. See the following article

https://www.ft.com/content/0640004d-cc1 ... 2328305798

However at a population level it is fairly much common sense that as we increase social mobility and contact there will be a greater amount of bugs circulating given they have a high R number are highly transmissible via aerosol, droplets, etc. which we avoided for the last couple of years due to social distancing and mask wearing. Winter, Xmas parties and the extremely cold weather we have had recently is an ideal breeding and spreading ground for all these bugs. As a result of having no PH mitigations in place then flu and other bugs will circulate as normal and indeed more quickly because we are all indoors keeping warm in sub zero weather. As a result we have a high level of flu at the moment which was anticipated given the weather plus the high levels of flu in Australia/NZ in their winter, it looks like H3N2 seems like the strain causing the problem.

I am not sure about covid causing folk to be immunocompromised but does covid damage your bodies ability to fight off other viruses, disease, etc at least for a period of time? Research is still being carried out but it would appear it very much does so and we have to accept that covid is not just a respiratory disease, that is the means by which it enters your body through your nose and mouth into your lungs etc. For example it can in turn cause significant problems to your vascular system which in turns affects heart, lungs brains, muscles, etc. How and why it does this and to who in particular is still part of ongoing research but we know some of the risk factors ie diabetes, overweight, etc .The factors behind long covid are still being researched. However like any virus it does weaken your body's response system and leaves you more exposed to other illnesses. Some have drawn a parallel with HIV which can lead to patients, who are untreated, dying of pneumonia or tuberculosis.

Lastly mask wearing does not promote a cough in kids or anyone else for that matter. There is no research to support this. Not one of my surgeon/anaesthetist golfing mates have a 'mask cough' despite having worn one almost daily whilst working for hours on end in theatres/wards/labs for the last 30+ years. This is just utter nonsense, I thought we were past all this shit, please just stop it!
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:18 am
Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:15 am He argues the increase in respiratory illnesses is due to

1. Reduced circulation of bugs during the pandemic having led to lower population immunisation ('immunity debt')

Rather than "long covid" causing peole to be immunocompromised.

I'm not sure if we're seeing the same pattern here in SA.
I've not noticed it anyway. But what I did notice was that lots of little kids developed a persistent cough when they were forced to wear a mask at school all day, even when playing outside. It was an idiotic policy, one of many.
I'm going to point out a subtle difference. He's saying there are two main reasonings being put forward and that he thinks the evidence looks like reduced exposure is more likely.
Yes, we can al read the link I provided and obviously he doesn't say it's 100 percent certain that it's due to immunity debt, just that immunity debt as he defines it

" is a far more plausible explanation than 'impaired immunity'. There is also no other credible evidence for the 'impaired immunity' hypothesis that I'm aware of."

But thanks for the correction.
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:15 pm Some have drawn a parallel with HIV which can lead to patients, who are untreated, dying of pneumonia or tuberculosis.

Lastly mask wearing does not promote a cough in kids or anyone else for that matter. There is no research to support this. Not one of my surgeon/anaesthetist golfing mates have a 'mask cough' despite having worn one almost daily whilst working for hours on end in theatres/wards/labs for the last 30+ years. This is just utter nonsense, I thought we were past all this shit, please just stop it!
Of course the zero COVID nutters like your friend Eric Feigel Dingdong have compared HIV with long COVID. Alarmist and unhelpful.

I'm sure your golfing buddies weren't forced to keep their mask on and scolded by the teacher when attempting to take a wet mask off. Wearing a mask can cause a sore throat which can lead to a dry cough. Maybe have another word with your golfing buddies so they can explain this to you.
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1784
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:03 am Quite remarkable what's happening in China.
Long after the rest of the world has moved on, they are still struggling to get to grips with it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-p ... um=twitter

Closer to home, our elderly neighbours got it. Both in their 80's and vaccinated. The wife has early stage Alzheimer's and sadly it looks like that's done a fast forward now.
It's not that remarkable in the sense that what is happening now is exactly what was predicted. They've had a brutal lock down and closed borders till the people couldn't take it anymore. Then they opened up early in winter with a large proportion of their eldery not fully (three doses) vaccinated. Sensibility, a lot of people are avoiding crowded places and fortunately the Chinese habit of going to a hospital at the merest hint of feeling unwell has been curtailed.

Alzheimer's is a real bastard, my Gran died from it. I had hoped it would kill her more quickly than it did rather than seeing her linger on. My uncle died of Delta variant COVID, 80 years old, life long smoker, unvaccinated . He didn't stand a chance.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:45 pm
dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:15 pm Some have drawn a parallel with HIV which can lead to patients, who are untreated, dying of pneumonia or tuberculosis.

Lastly mask wearing does not promote a cough in kids or anyone else for that matter. There is no research to support this. Not one of my surgeon/anaesthetist golfing mates have a 'mask cough' despite having worn one almost daily whilst working for hours on end in theatres/wards/labs for the last 30+ years. This is just utter nonsense, I thought we were past all this shit, please just stop it!
Of course the zero COVID nutters like your friend Eric Feigel Dingdong have compared HIV with long COVID. Alarmist and unhelpful.

I'm sure your golfing buddies weren't forced to keep their mask on and scolded by the teacher when attempting to take a wet mask off. Wearing a mask can cause a sore throat which can lead to a dry cough. Maybe have another word with your golfing buddies so they can explain this to you.
FFS - we have spoken about this at length at they all say it is just absolute bullshit! Lets move on from this 'masks are bad shite'?
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:45 pm
dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:15 pm Some have drawn a parallel with HIV which can lead to patients, who are untreated, dying of pneumonia or tuberculosis.

Lastly mask wearing does not promote a cough in kids or anyone else for that matter. There is no research to support this. Not one of my surgeon/anaesthetist golfing mates have a 'mask cough' despite having worn one almost daily whilst working for hours on end in theatres/wards/labs for the last 30+ years. This is just utter nonsense, I thought we were past all this shit, please just stop it!
Of course the zero COVID nutters like your friend Eric Feigel Dingdong have compared HIV with long COVID. Alarmist and unhelpful.

I'm sure your golfing buddies weren't forced to keep their mask on and scolded by the teacher when attempting to take a wet mask off. Wearing a mask can cause a sore throat which can lead to a dry cough. Maybe have another word with your golfing buddies so they can explain this to you.
FFS - correlation does not equal causation! My mates are all experienced clinical directors/senior consultants or recently retired consultants who work at a major teaching hospital and who either carry out research in their own specialties at a major UK medical school or else teach junior docs and new consultants and without exception they are all pretty clear that masks do not cause a cough as you describe. They are actually forced to wear them in theatres for many hours at a time and during covid wore them all day every day in the hospital - believe it or not it is called infection control. No one has a cough! Next time you are having an operation then just ask the surgical team to not bother with masks, indeed why bother with gloves or even washing their hands - just go for it! For some strange reason I trust my mates judgement rather than an anonymous poster on a rugby chat forum!

Your language is misleading and not helpful re the Covid and HIV example - no-one said there was a direct comparison between the two but rather both have a similar impact upon a bodies ability to fight off other viruses or infections. Hence many folk with covid, as with HIV, have serious illness or die not because of the virus itself but of something like pneumonia which the body is unable to fight off whilst they have the virus involved. This is not alarmist and I believe is helpful in understanding the wider impact of covid upon patients, including why many suffer from cardiac, pulmonary, neurological etc issues as well as long covid.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:14 pm
Uncle fester wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:03 am Quite remarkable what's happening in China.
Long after the rest of the world has moved on, they are still struggling to get to grips with it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-p ... um=twitter

Closer to home, our elderly neighbours got it. Both in their 80's and vaccinated. The wife has early stage Alzheimer's and sadly it looks like that's done a fast forward now.
It's not that remarkable in the sense that what is happening now is exactly what was predicted. They've had a brutal lock down and closed borders till the people couldn't take it anymore. Then they opened up early in winter with a large proportion of their eldery not fully (three doses) vaccinated. Sensibility, a lot of people are avoiding crowded places and fortunately the Chinese habit of going to a hospital at the merest hint of feeling unwell has been curtailed.

Alzheimer's is a real bastard, my Gran died from it. I had hoped it would kill her more quickly than it did rather than seeing her linger on. My uncle died of Delta variant COVID, 80 years old, life long smoker, unvaccinated . He didn't stand a chance.
Agree that the China situation is entirely anticipated. Covid vaccinations are not 100% effective but they do reduce the chances of being infected, getting it seriously or dying. I am not clear how efficacious the Chinese vaccines are? A positive point is that the Chinese tend to be a lot better at following PH mitigations such as mask wearing. However given the size of the population of China plus their low vaccination rates, as you note above, there will be very large numbers of folk ill, hospitalised or dying because of covid. Fingers crossed for them.

NZ were a really good example of following an excellent PH covid approach. Lock down when required, follow PH measures and then had a wide and deep vaccination programme before gradually opening up society and borders. NZ covid deaths per million are 0.2 compared with say the UK which are 2,688 per million! To be fair to China their reported (not sure how reliable their figures are) covid deaths per million are 10 so they have someway to go before they hit the carnage of the UK.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:32 pm
Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:45 pm
dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:15 pm Some have drawn a parallel with HIV which can lead to patients, who are untreated, dying of pneumonia or tuberculosis.

Lastly mask wearing does not promote a cough in kids or anyone else for that matter. There is no research to support this. Not one of my surgeon/anaesthetist golfing mates have a 'mask cough' despite having worn one almost daily whilst working for hours on end in theatres/wards/labs for the last 30+ years. This is just utter nonsense, I thought we were past all this shit, please just stop it!
Of course the zero COVID nutters like your friend Eric Feigel Dingdong have compared HIV with long COVID. Alarmist and unhelpful.

I'm sure your golfing buddies weren't forced to keep their mask on and scolded by the teacher when attempting to take a wet mask off. Wearing a mask can cause a sore throat which can lead to a dry cough. Maybe have another word with your golfing buddies so they can explain this to you.
FFS - correlation does not equal causation! My mates are all experienced clinical directors/senior consultants or recently retired consultants who work at a major teaching hospital and who either carry out research in their own specialties at a major UK medical school or else teach junior docs and new consultants and without exception they are all pretty clear that masks do not cause a cough as you describe. They are actually forced to wear them in theatres for many hours at a time and during covid wore them all day every day in the hospital - believe it or not it is called infection control. No one has a cough! Next time you are having an operation then just ask the surgical team to not bother with masks, indeed why bother with gloves or even washing their hands - just go for it! For some strange reason I trust my mates judgement rather than an anonymous poster on a rugby chat forum!

Your language is misleading and not helpful re the Covid and HIV example - no-one said there was a direct comparison between the two but rather both have a similar impact upon a bodies ability to fight off other viruses or infections. Hence many folk with covid, as with HIV, have serious illness or die not because of the virus itself but of something like pneumonia which the body is unable to fight off whilst they have the virus involved. This is not alarmist and I believe is helpful in understanding the wider impact of covid upon patients, including why many suffer from cardiac, pulmonary, neurological etc issues as well as long covid.
You must have a different definition of “comparison”, if this is _not_ you drawing a comparison again.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

parallel

noun, adjective

Definition: (n.) 1. a comparison between two things; 2. something very similar to something else; 3. a line or plane that is the same distance apart from another at all points; 4. imaginary line on the earth's surface, running parallel to the equator, that represents the degrees of latitude; (adj.) 1. relating to two lines or planes running the same distance apart and never meeting; 2. having similarities or shared characteristics
petej
Posts: 2459
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:41 am
Location: Gwent

Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:05 pm
dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:32 pm
Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:45 pm

Of course the zero COVID nutters like your friend Eric Feigel Dingdong have compared HIV with long COVID. Alarmist and unhelpful.

I'm sure your golfing buddies weren't forced to keep their mask on and scolded by the teacher when attempting to take a wet mask off. Wearing a mask can cause a sore throat which can lead to a dry cough. Maybe have another word with your golfing buddies so they can explain this to you.
FFS - correlation does not equal causation! My mates are all experienced clinical directors/senior consultants or recently retired consultants who work at a major teaching hospital and who either carry out research in their own specialties at a major UK medical school or else teach junior docs and new consultants and without exception they are all pretty clear that masks do not cause a cough as you describe. They are actually forced to wear them in theatres for many hours at a time and during covid wore them all day every day in the hospital - believe it or not it is called infection control. No one has a cough! Next time you are having an operation then just ask the surgical team to not bother with masks, indeed why bother with gloves or even washing their hands - just go for it! For some strange reason I trust my mates judgement rather than an anonymous poster on a rugby chat forum!

Your language is misleading and not helpful re the Covid and HIV example - no-one said there was a direct comparison between the two but rather both have a similar impact upon a bodies ability to fight off other viruses or infections. Hence many folk with covid, as with HIV, have serious illness or die not because of the virus itself but of something like pneumonia which the body is unable to fight off whilst they have the virus involved. This is not alarmist and I believe is helpful in understanding the wider impact of covid upon patients, including why many suffer from cardiac, pulmonary, neurological etc issues as well as long covid.
You must have a different definition of “comparison”, if this is _not_ you drawing a comparison again.
He was doing well until the aids covid bit. I can easily see masks causing issues for kids if reused or used for too long or if the manufacture contains not good materials. All not going to happen to surgeons who won't be using dodgy masks* and I would expect are very aware of limitations surrounding reuse or wearing one for too long.

*unless procured from dodgy tory donors
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

petej wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:25 pm
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:05 pm
dpedin wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:32 pm

FFS - correlation does not equal causation! My mates are all experienced clinical directors/senior consultants or recently retired consultants who work at a major teaching hospital and who either carry out research in their own specialties at a major UK medical school or else teach junior docs and new consultants and without exception they are all pretty clear that masks do not cause a cough as you describe. They are actually forced to wear them in theatres for many hours at a time and during covid wore them all day every day in the hospital - believe it or not it is called infection control. No one has a cough! Next time you are having an operation then just ask the surgical team to not bother with masks, indeed why bother with gloves or even washing their hands - just go for it! For some strange reason I trust my mates judgement rather than an anonymous poster on a rugby chat forum!

Your language is misleading and not helpful re the Covid and HIV example - no-one said there was a direct comparison between the two but rather both have a similar impact upon a bodies ability to fight off other viruses or infections. Hence many folk with covid, as with HIV, have serious illness or die not because of the virus itself but of something like pneumonia which the body is unable to fight off whilst they have the virus involved. This is not alarmist and I believe is helpful in understanding the wider impact of covid upon patients, including why many suffer from cardiac, pulmonary, neurological etc issues as well as long covid.
You must have a different definition of “comparison”, if this is _not_ you drawing a comparison again.
He was doing well until the aids covid bit. I can easily see masks causing issues for kids if reused or used for too long or if the manufacture contains not good materials. All not going to happen to surgeons who won't be using dodgy masks* and I would expect are very aware of limitations surrounding reuse or wearing one for too long.

*unless procured from dodgy tory donors
As I suggested there may be parallels between HIV and Covid in terms of the impact they have in the body immune response - https://medsci.org/v19p1787. This may be helpful in understanding and treating covid.
dpedin
Posts: 2979
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/ ... 715152e2_x

Looks like it is worth getting the bivalent vaccine, at least for those of a certain age or more at risk. Get jabbed!
Blackmac
Posts: 3231
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:04 pm

So the UK government have no plans to impose restrictions on Chinese travellers despite many other countries doing so or indicating they intend to do so. Italy found that 52% of recent Chinese arrivals tested positive.

It's like our lot never learnt a bloody thing from their shit response first time around.
GogLais
Posts: 2472
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:06 pm
Location: Wirral/Cilgwri

Blackmac wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:37 pm So the UK government have no plans to impose restrictions on Chinese travellers despite many other countries doing so or indicating they intend to do so. Italy found that 52% of recent Chinese arrivals tested positive.

It's like our lot never learnt a bloody thing from their shit response first time around.
Are they mad? It’s not as if they’d have to fear the public’s response to doing so.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Blackmac wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:37 pm So the UK government have no plans to impose restrictions on Chinese travellers despite many other countries doing so or indicating they intend to do so. Italy found that 52% of recent Chinese arrivals tested positive.

It's like our lot never learnt a bloody thing from their shit response first time around.
Why would they put new restrictions on them?

Are we worried about covid spreading here?
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Ymx wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 2:29 pm
Blackmac wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:37 pm So the UK government have no plans to impose restrictions on Chinese travellers despite many other countries doing so or indicating they intend to do so. Italy found that 52% of recent Chinese arrivals tested positive.

It's like our lot never learnt a bloody thing from their shit response first time around.
Why would they put new restrictions on them?

Are we worried about covid spreading here?
Thing is, our prevalence is about 1.5-2%, which is somewhere around a million or a million and a quarter. How many people arrive from China each day? If we say 20 flights, maybe around 8000 people max? If the infection rates are as bad as that plane that was sampled, it’s 4000 people, 28000 a week. It’s in the noise.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

Indeed, it makes zero difference to us, and simply messes with airlines for zero net gain.
Post Reply