What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Biden just announced at the G7 summit that Russia suffered over 100k casualties at Bakhmut.

Sounds high, but it does appear they quite possibly burned through 40 - 50 000 convicts killed or wounded

It's also the first indication by a Western leader that the Ukrainian General Staff's claimed Russian casualty figures are not unreasonable.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Anti-Putin Russian Volunteers reportedly making a nuisance of themselves


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And

[Guy Smiley]

Holy shit, a 6 tonne armoured limo just destroyed itself on a Volvo door?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[TB63]

Seeing the photos of Bakmut, they're fighting over rubble now. Fuck all that's left standing is repairable..

[Brazil]

If that's true, then you'd have thought the Russians would have noticed the parallels with a certain second world war battle...

[tabascoboy]

"We are Russians just like you. We are people just like you. We want our children to grow up in piece and be free people, so that they can travel, study and just be happy in a free country.

But this has no place in today's Putin's Russia, rotten from corruption, lies, censorship, restrictions on freedoms, repressions. In that Russia where a person's life means less than an official's wallet. In that Russia where a separate railway is being laid to the residence of the bunker grandfather instead of repairing roads in the regions.
In a dictatorial country where children are separated from their parents for calling for peace, and teenagers are given life sentences.

It's time to put an end to the Kremlin's dictatorship. Thanks to all those who support us. To everyone who sends us donations and smokes where necessary. Your support is what every day reminds us of our final goal on Red Square [in Moscow]. Be brave and don't be afraid, because we are coming home. Russia will be free!” — he says

[tabascoboy]

Unconfirmed reports of possible conflict also to the SE of Belgorod too. Can't see this will achieve much, but rather embarrassing for RU all the same.

Also but probably unrelated as 100 km from the border: BREAKING: Preliminary reports that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter has crashed in Belgorod region

[dkm57]

WTF?!?

Did anyone expect this?

I suppose it diverts attention and resources from the front line and if the mobiks learn of it the consequences could be interesting, stay in Ukriane to be fed into the meat grinder of the upcoming Ukranian counter offensive or go back and try to save your family.

[tabascoboy]

WTF?!?

Did anyone expect this?

I suppose it diverts attention and resources from the front line and if the mobiks learn of it the consequences could be interesting, stay in Ukriane to be fed into the meat grinder of the upcoming Ukranian counter offensive or go back and try to save your family.

Or go back and help nail the cnut who started all this...

Of course rumours are flying all over the place, so even more caveat than usual is necessary

Russian media now reporting a UA "infantry battalion" rather than just recon/sabotage group
Large explosion in the main place of conflict currently, Grayvoron town
Reports of further incursion towards the border with Bryansk - unconfirmed
Reports of buses on the way to the conflict zone for evacuation - officially denied
Reports of a surge in traffic leaving Belgorod city - officially denied
Comms and internet outages in Belgorod Oblast - quite possibly a deliberate way to try and avoid "misinformation" and panic

[Biffer]

WTF?!?

Did anyone expect this?

I suppose it diverts attention and resources from the front line and if the mobiks learn of it the consequences could be interesting, stay in Ukriane to be fed into the meat grinder of the upcoming Ukranian counter offensive or go back and try to save your family.

Also gives Prighozin and the others who are openly criticising Putin a base to flip to for full on civil war or a coup in Russia.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Seems that between two and three battalions crossed the border, around 1,200 to 1,800 men.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

Seems that between two and three battalions crossed the border, around 1,200 to 1,800 men.

Official AFU units or auxiliary units doing a solo (or plausibly deniable) run?

What's the strategy here?
Can imagine that this will make western countries nervous.

[tabascoboy]

“If the Russian miltary is weak, we may get Belgorod itself,” told me. “If they are able to regroup, we can hold. If they redirect significant forces, we may retreat. The situation is developing.” 2/3
The #Belgorod operation has “symbolic significance and the hope that is being spread among Russian elites and diaspora cannot be overestimated.” 3/3

[Hellraiser]

Seems that between two and three battalions crossed the border, around 1,200 to 1,800 men.

Official AFU units or auxiliary units doing a solo (or plausibly deniable) run?

What's the strategy here?
Can imagine that this will make western countries nervous.

Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Not a 100% sure where the RVC are in the Ukrainian order of battle, but the FRL are within the TDF structure. Same is probably true for the RVC. As such they are official but independent formations. I imagine a lot of what they get up to is coordinated by Budanov and HUR.

There's a few reason for doing this: firstly, the obvious propaganda purposes; secondly, it's Russians fighting Russians on Russian soil, difficult to spin for the Kremlin; thirdly, it'll force Russia to redeploy troops from other areas; fourthly, it creates chaos and panic.

Edit: just seen it confirmed this is Budanov's baby.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Probably unconfirmed unless they have undetected drones or friendly eyes on the ground

[fishfoodie]

I don't think even the Orcs are stupid enough to store nukes a dozen miles away from a war zone.

[Hellraiser]

I don't think even the Orcs are stupid enough to store nukes a dozen miles away from a war zone.

They dug trenches in the Red Forest....

Edit: and HUR just confirmed the Russians still had tactical nukes there and panic evacuated them when the Free Russians approached Grayvoron.

[Hellraiser]

This lad is an FSB defector.

[fishfoodie]

I don't think even the Orcs are stupid enough to store nukes a dozen miles away from a war zone.

They dug trenches in the Red Forest....

Edit: and HUR just confirmed the Russians still had tactical nukes there and panic evacuated them when the Free Russians approached Grayvoron.

Another Shoigu special.

Hopefully the weapons actually make their way to somewhere safe, because tactical nukes have, of necessity, far fewer systems to stop unauthorized use, & the likes of the Iranians would love to get their hands on them & would pay thru the nose for them

[tabascoboy]

More "fog of war" about the incursion overnight and this morning

• RU media claims 40 - 50 invaders were killed or taken POW and several vehicles destroyed
  Governor of the oblast says many villages still not under safe control and more evacuations planned, special "counter-terrorist measures" continue
  Some more villages have been under mortar fire this morning
  Downing of helicopter away from the area now appears to be friendly fire incident
  The incursion units appear to have used the dark to move around and evade capture, and claim to be dug-in in places

[Hellraiser]

More "fog of war" about the incursion overnight and this morning

• RU media claims 40 - 50 invaders were killed or taken POW and several vehicles destroyed
  Governor of the oblast says many villages still not under safe control and more evacuations planned, special "counter-terrorist measures" continue
  Some more villages have been under mortar fire this morning
  Downing of helicopter away from the area now appears to be friendly fire incident
  The incursion units appear to have used the dark to move around and evade capture, and claim to be dug-in in places

I've seen photos of FRL/RVC troops with captured BTR-80s and at least one RuAF POW.

[tabascoboy]

New points of incursion

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Random1]

At least they’re getting some decent kit!

https://www.forces.net/nato/challenger- ... rams-tanks

[Flockwitt]

A couple of links to what must be one of the toughest jobs of the war - stabilisation units. The soldiers who make it out of there have a reasonable chance of survival, many don't.

This is a Telegraph article - yahoo news sourced so no paywall.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/lots-young-m ... 15231.html

And hromadske's latest drop is on this topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PonOIZNc1wY

[tabascoboy]

Russian survey of voting intention and other electoral matters showed 41% in favour of Putin and 45% for other candidates. At this point cynics might think if Putin has a chance to put off the election in 300 days time because of security concerns or whatever he just might!

No ENG TL except by machine TL

About half (48%) of the Russians surveyed suggest that the elections in their region are more likely to be fair, 39% consider the opposite (rather dishonest). Women are a little more likely than men to be confident in the honesty of the election (50% versus 44%).

Among the respondents of 18-29 years, the opinion about the honesty of the elections was almost equally divided: 41% believe that the elections in the region are fair, 43% suggest that it is dishonest. The least in the transparency of the election are respondents over 60 years old: among them, 49% call the election honest, 33% are sure of the opposite. Also, more educated (50%) and more wealthy (55%) participants in the study are more likely to be sure of the honesty of the election. Skeptics predominate among readers of Telegram channels: 47% consider the election dishonest, 42% - honest. viewers, on the contrary, for the most part believe in the honesty of the election: 58% versus 29% of doubters.

https://russianfield.com/300days

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

Good to know Warstache is both still alive and currently invading Russia! An amusing an intriguing character, keeps surviving and popping up in interesting places.

[fishfoodie]

Well it makes a difference from dying from a fall .....

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/ ... ion-a81223

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

Ukrainian ambassador to Germany has said 110 Leopard 1A5s will soon be delivered to Ukraine.

Also apparently the Swiss have taken 25 Leopard 2A4s/Pz 87s out of service and are selling them back to Rheinmetall. You can probably guess where an equal number will be going.

[Hellraiser]

Good to know Warstache is both still alive and currently invading Russia! An amusing an intriguing character, keeps surviving and popping up in interesting places.

His name is Igor Yankov (hence the call-sign "Yankee"). Was one of the pro-democracy protesters who had to flee Belarus after the post 2020 election crackdown. Had no military experience prior to February last year.