What's going on in Ukraine?

[Uncle fester]

Yanks were supposedly just watching it all go down

That map doesn't make any sense to me! 1 what is a small communications/intelligence gathering vessel doing that far south and 2, how the hell is a suicide drone boat going to get that far south?

Edit: I'm sure the flight happened as displayed - I just don't think it's purpose was to observe the alledged attack on the Russian ship.

The plotting on the chart opens up all sorts of questions. That's very far south and north of 45 is still ostensibly blockaded, plus Ukrainian Naval capability is effectively nil. So either they've got more than people realised, the drones have a greater range than at first suspected, or the charts are wrong and it was actually closer to Crimea. Also, I thought the Russians had pulled the fleet out of Sevastopol after Moskva went down?

That's where the watching plane was. It's not necessarily where the ship was.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

That was always going to be the case. Respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity would look awkward in relation to their own expansionism.

[Hellraiser]

Interview from last year with the former FSB officer recently seen with the RVC in Belgorod.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-soldier ... 01178.html

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Spain is sending another 4 Leopard 2A4s to Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Enzedder]

I like a wee mushroom crowd when it's over a Russian Ammo depot

[TB63]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Life expectancy reduced, right here

[tabascoboy]

A bit of levity

[fishfoodie]

I like a wee mushroom crowd when it's over a Russian Ammo depot

The Ukrainians are very good at exploiting the resources they have, & the stupidity of the Orcs

This video shows how they use drones so intelligently, & in different tasks, as a primary attacking platform, or destroying potentially booby trapped abandoned armor, or just spotting for artillery, & not just for regular counter battery, but identifying where the stupid Orcs have sited their ammo right amongst the artillery, so one well placed round can detonate the ammo

[tabascoboy]

I like a wee mushroom crowd when it's over a Russian Ammo depot

The Ukrainians are very good at exploiting the resources they have, & the stupidity of the Orcs

This video shows how they use drones so intelligently, & in different tasks, as a primary attacking platform, or destroying potentially booby trapped abandoned armor, or just spotting for artillery, & not just for regular counter battery, but identifying where the stupid Orcs have sited their ammo right amongst the artillery, so one well placed round can detonate the ammo

Don't know what period of time the YT video covers - and we know that UA must also be taking losses that aren't publicised but this is an insane waste of resources through, what? Over-confidence? Complacency? Devil-may-care attitude?

[tabascoboy]

Things getting lively around Bilhorod region again

[fishfoodie]

I like a wee mushroom crowd when it's over a Russian Ammo depot

The Ukrainians are very good at exploiting the resources they have, & the stupidity of the Orcs

This video shows how they use drones so intelligently, & in different tasks, as a primary attacking platform, or destroying potentially booby trapped abandoned armor, or just spotting for artillery, & not just for regular counter battery, but identifying where the stupid Orcs have sited their ammo right amongst the artillery, so one well placed round can detonate the ammo

Don't know what period of time the YT video covers - and we know that UA must also be taking losses that aren't publicised but this is an insane waste of resources through, what? Over-confidence? Complacency? Devil-may-care attitude?

It all comes back to their confidence that they'd take over Kyiv inside of a week.

They had no plan for anything longer than that, & once they didn't succeed the rot inside every facet of the armed forces, & the corruption & incompetence of their leadership made this kind of outcome more likely, but only because the Ukrainians did learn the lessons of 2014 & have been planning ever since, & the west was also ready, & thankfully reacted at once when they saw the buildup of forces, & so UA was rapidly armed with modern weapons that made them much more effective than the Orcs whose MBTs have been easy meat for the ATGMs.

[Flockwitt]

The Ukrainians are very good at exploiting the resources they have, & the stupidity of the Orcs

This video shows how they use drones so intelligently, & in different tasks, as a primary attacking platform, or destroying potentially booby trapped abandoned armor, or just spotting for artillery, & not just for regular counter battery, but identifying where the stupid Orcs have sited their ammo right amongst the artillery, so one well placed round can detonate the ammo

Don't know what period of time the YT video covers - and we know that UA must also be taking losses that aren't publicised but this is an insane waste of resources through, what? Over-confidence? Complacency? Devil-may-care attitude?

It all comes back to their confidence that they'd take over Kyiv inside of a week.

They had no plan for anything longer than that, & once they didn't succeed the rot inside every facet of the armed forces, & the corruption & incompetence of their leadership made this kind of outcome more likely, but only because the Ukrainians did learn the lessons of 2014 & have been planning ever since, & the west was also ready, & thankfully reacted at once when they saw the buildup of forces, & so UA was rapidly armed with modern weapons that made them much more effective than the Orcs whose MBTs have been easy meat for the ATGMs.

Right now it's not military stupidity. The Russians have no further military options, no clever way to redo or relearn. They can't reposition their logistics away from the Storm Shadows and their equivalents, there's nowhere to move back to, why their introduction at this juncture was so crucial. They can't retrain troops outside of their existing doctrine, they have no time, ability or will. They can't resupply, the Soviet factories that even 10 years ago could have won this war for them are no longer functional. So all they are left with is grind and attrition. To sit and hope that their forces can resist the counter-offensive and Ukraine will bleed western supply and desire to supply.

The cost of failure is real, there aren't any left over MBTs and the like if this counter attack goes south. Watching the last couple of weeks unfold though you can see the Ukrainians are playing this masterly with thankfully plenty of long range weaponry, their early attacks in Luhansk a good indicator that there was plenty more to come. For now the attrition balance is totally lopsided in the Ukrainians favour. And the incursions into Russia brilliant - a priceless bargaining chip when Russia is forced to the negotiating table.

So when do the Ukrainians drop the hammer? There has to be a limit to the ammo supply that they're currently using and they'll want plenty when troops get rolling.

[fishfoodie]

Don't know what period of time the YT video covers - and we know that UA must also be taking losses that aren't publicised but this is an insane waste of resources through, what? Over-confidence? Complacency? Devil-may-care attitude?

It all comes back to their confidence that they'd take over Kyiv inside of a week.

They had no plan for anything longer than that, & once they didn't succeed the rot inside every facet of the armed forces, & the corruption & incompetence of their leadership made this kind of outcome more likely, but only because the Ukrainians did learn the lessons of 2014 & have been planning ever since, & the west was also ready, & thankfully reacted at once when they saw the buildup of forces, & so UA was rapidly armed with modern weapons that made them much more effective than the Orcs whose MBTs have been easy meat for the ATGMs.

Right now it's not military stupidity. The Russians have no further military options, no clever way to redo or relearn. They can't reposition their logistics away from the Storm Shadows and their equivalents, there's nowhere to move back to, why their introduction at this juncture was so crucial. They can't retrain troops outside of their existing doctrine, they have no time, ability or will. They can't resupply, the Soviet factories that even 10 years ago could have won this war for them are no longer functional. So all they are left with is grind and attrition. To sit and hope that their forces can resist the counter-offensive and Ukraine will bleed western supply and desire to supply.

The cost of failure is real, there aren't any left over MBTs and the like if this counter attack goes south. Watching the last couple of weeks unfold though you can see the Ukrainians are playing this masterly with thankfully plenty of long range weaponry, their early attacks in Luhansk a good indicator that there was plenty more to come. For now the attrition balance is totally lopsided in the Ukrainians favour. And the incursions into Russia brilliant - a priceless bargaining chip when Russia is forced to the negotiating table.

So when do the Ukrainians drop the hammer? There has to be a limit to the ammo supply that they're currently using and they'll want plenty when troops get rolling.

Well I wouldn't go that far, but the options they do have are borderline suicide, or too horrific for sane people to contemplate.

They could launch a full on air raid with aircraft on Kyiv, & hope to get enough aircraft thru to overwhelm the air defenses; but the cost would probably be so high that the Generals would mutiny before they'd do it, & there's always the WMD option, all of the N.B.C. triad are available & the one person who'd use them on a Civilian population is sitting in the Kremlin.

Right now the Orcs problem is they have a massive front, &, as you say, they're now forced to fight a WW I style defense, unable to do much other than try to keep what they've stolen, while their opponents gets stronger ever day !

[Hellraiser]

Don't know what period of time the YT video covers - and we know that UA must also be taking losses that aren't publicised but this is an insane waste of resources through, what? Over-confidence? Complacency? Devil-may-care attitude?

It all comes back to their confidence that they'd take over Kyiv inside of a week.

They had no plan for anything longer than that, & once they didn't succeed the rot inside every facet of the armed forces, & the corruption & incompetence of their leadership made this kind of outcome more likely, but only because the Ukrainians did learn the lessons of 2014 & have been planning ever since, & the west was also ready, & thankfully reacted at once when they saw the buildup of forces, & so UA was rapidly armed with modern weapons that made them much more effective than the Orcs whose MBTs have been easy meat for the ATGMs.

Right now it's not military stupidity. The Russians have no further military options, no clever way to redo or relearn. They can't reposition their logistics away from the Storm Shadows and their equivalents, there's nowhere to move back to, why their introduction at this juncture was so crucial. They can't retrain troops outside of their existing doctrine, they have no time, ability or will. They can't resupply, the Soviet factories that even 10 years ago could have won this war for them are no longer functional. So all they are left with is grind and attrition. To sit and hope that their forces can resist the counter-offensive and Ukraine will bleed western supply and desire to supply.

The cost of failure is real, there aren't any left over MBTs and the like if this counter attack goes south. Watching the last couple of weeks unfold though you can see the Ukrainians are playing this masterly with thankfully plenty of long range weaponry, their early attacks in Luhansk a good indicator that there was plenty more to come. For now the attrition balance is totally lopsided in the Ukrainians favour. And the incursions into Russia brilliant - a priceless bargaining chip when Russia is forced to the negotiating table.

So when do the Ukrainians drop the hammer? There has to be a limit to the ammo supply that they're currently using and they'll want plenty when troops get rolling.

The ammo issue may to an extent be a little "dog that didn't bark". Anecdotally, it appears that the Ukrainians have been rationing shells since at least the new year to build up a stockpile in advance of the Spring/Summer Offensive. If, and it is an if, they go on the offensive with 1m shells of all calibres, NATO and Soviet, in the bank, that should be enough.

[Flockwitt]

Yep. And while there's a lot of talk about the new weapons, the nice tanks and what not, and, ooh look, the Ukrainians might be getting F-16s, the bottom line all the Ukrainians really need is artillery and the maintenance and ammunition for them. The F-16s IMHO are simply morale boosting propaganda, the Russians are still going to have far more aircraft and an air defence system set up to combat F-16s. They'll be a waste of resources vs. an equivalent of HIMARs or mobile howitzers. The Ukrainians can win a world war 1 style war with the same tactics the Russians utilized previously.

[Biffer]

Yep. And while there's a lot of talk about the new weapons, the nice tanks and what not, and, ooh look, the Ukrainians might be getting F-16s, the bottom line all the Ukrainians really need is artillery and the maintenance and ammunition for them. The F-16s IMHO are simply morale boosting propaganda, the Russians are still going to have far more aircraft and an air defence system set up to combat F-16s. They'll be a waste of resources vs. an equivalent of HIMARs or mobile howitzers. The Ukrainians can win a world war 1 style war with the same tactics the Russians utilized previously.

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

Yep. And while there's a lot of talk about the new weapons, the nice tanks and what not, and, ooh look, the Ukrainians might be getting F-16s, the bottom line all the Ukrainians really need is artillery and the maintenance and ammunition for them. The F-16s IMHO are simply morale boosting propaganda, the Russians are still going to have far more aircraft and an air defence system set up to combat F-16s. They'll be a waste of resources vs. an equivalent of HIMARs or mobile howitzers. The Ukrainians can win a world war 1 style war with the same tactics the Russians utilized previously.

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

[Raggs]

Yep. And while there's a lot of talk about the new weapons, the nice tanks and what not, and, ooh look, the Ukrainians might be getting F-16s, the bottom line all the Ukrainians really need is artillery and the maintenance and ammunition for them. The F-16s IMHO are simply morale boosting propaganda, the Russians are still going to have far more aircraft and an air defence system set up to combat F-16s. They'll be a waste of resources vs. an equivalent of HIMARs or mobile howitzers. The Ukrainians can win a world war 1 style war with the same tactics the Russians utilized previously.

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

As someone with little clue, would the f-16s not allow Ukraine to shoot the storm shadow missiles far more easily?

[TB63]

[inactionman]

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

As someone with little clue, would the f-16s not allow Ukraine to shoot the storm shadow missiles far more easily?

Too heavy for it, I'd think - the F16 can launch munitions such as the storm-shadowish JASSM and the antishipping Harpoon, but the JASSM is about half a ton, the Harpoon just under 700Kg and the Storm Shadow about 1,300Kg (about the same as a a small hatchback car). Storm Shadow is a hefty beast.

I say 'I'd think' as the F16 can lift about 6 or so tonnes all up, and there may be a possibility of hardpoint strengthening, but launching storm shadow is perhaps best left to bombers - I think the F16 can carry bombs and fuel tanks over 1 tonne, so it might be doable - it wasn't really designed for such large missiles, it's multi-role but only up to a point.. The SU-34 launches weapons such as Oniks which are (in air-launched form) about 2,500kg each.

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

[Calculon]

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

As someone with little clue, would the f-16s not allow Ukraine to shoot the storm shadow missiles far more easily?

Too heavy for it, I'd think - the F16 can launch munitions such as the storm-shadowish JASSM and the antishipping Harpoon, but the JASSM is about half a ton, the Harpoon just under 700Kg and the Storm Shadow about 1,300Kg (about the same as a a small hatchback car). Storm Shadow is a hefty beast.

I say 'I'd think' as the F16 can lift about 6 or so tonnes all up, and there may be a possibility of hardpoint strengthening, but launching storm shadow is perhaps best left to bombers - I think the F16 can carry bombs and fuel tanks over 1 tonne, so it might be doable - it wasn't really designed for such large missiles, it's multi-role but only up to a point.. The SU-34 launches weapons such as Oniks which are (in air-launched form) about 2,500kg each.

From the wiki page it says they can be launched by the Gripen and Mirage 2000 so seems unlikely that weight would be a issue with the f16. Maybe they just haven't been integrated with the f16 because there hasn't been a need to do it

[inactionman]

As someone with little clue, would the f-16s not allow Ukraine to shoot the storm shadow missiles far more easily?

Too heavy for it, I'd think - the F16 can launch munitions such as the storm-shadowish JASSM and the antishipping Harpoon, but the JASSM is about half a ton, the Harpoon just under 700Kg and the Storm Shadow about 1,300Kg (about the same as a a small hatchback car). Storm Shadow is a hefty beast.

I say 'I'd think' as the F16 can lift about 6 or so tonnes all up, and there may be a possibility of hardpoint strengthening, but launching storm shadow is perhaps best left to bombers - I think the F16 can carry bombs and fuel tanks over 1 tonne, so it might be doable - it wasn't really designed for such large missiles, it's multi-role but only up to a point.. The SU-34 launches weapons such as Oniks which are (in air-launched form) about 2,500kg each.

From the wiki page it says they can be launched by the Gripen and Mirage 2000 so seems unlikely that weight would be a issue with the f16. Maybe they just haven't been integrated with the f16 because there hasn't been a need to do it

The integration is probably one of the simper, as the storm shadow can be used pretty much independently of launching platform sensors etc, it just requires the platform to be able to mount. The F16, as far as I'm aware, doesn't mount anything quite comparable to storm shadow - that of course was due to doctrine and what F16 was designed for, and Mirage and Gripen were designed for it.

It might be that F16 can carry it, it might not - the Ukes are pretty decent at getting variant kit to paly nicely together so they'll doubtless give it a try. I'd still think, particularly given limited numbers of Storm shadow, the Sukhoi in the Ukrainian airframe would be better bets as this is what theyt're designed for, although this might be part of a push to migrate off Soviet platforms.

[Biffer]

Yep. And while there's a lot of talk about the new weapons, the nice tanks and what not, and, ooh look, the Ukrainians might be getting F-16s, the bottom line all the Ukrainians really need is artillery and the maintenance and ammunition for them. The F-16s IMHO are simply morale boosting propaganda, the Russians are still going to have far more aircraft and an air defence system set up to combat F-16s. They'll be a waste of resources vs. an equivalent of HIMARs or mobile howitzers. The Ukrainians can win a world war 1 style war with the same tactics the Russians utilized previously.

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

They were meant to have 10,000 tanks ready to go. Why should we think the corruption in the army supply and maintenance chains isn’t also in the air force’s?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Too heavy for it, I'd think - the F16 can launch munitions such as the storm-shadowish JASSM and the antishipping Harpoon, but the JASSM is about half a ton, the Harpoon just under 700Kg and the Storm Shadow about 1,300Kg (about the same as a a small hatchback car). Storm Shadow is a hefty beast.

I say 'I'd think' as the F16 can lift about 6 or so tonnes all up, and there may be a possibility of hardpoint strengthening, but launching storm shadow is perhaps best left to bombers - I think the F16 can carry bombs and fuel tanks over 1 tonne, so it might be doable - it wasn't really designed for such large missiles, it's multi-role but only up to a point.. The SU-34 launches weapons such as Oniks which are (in air-launched form) about 2,500kg each.

From the wiki page it says they can be launched by the Gripen and Mirage 2000 so seems unlikely that weight would be a issue with the f16. Maybe they just haven't been integrated with the f16 because there hasn't been a need to do it

The integration is probably one of the simper, as the storm shadow can be used pretty much independently of launching platform sensors etc, it just requires the platform to be able to mount. The F16, as far as I'm aware, doesn't mount anything quite comparable to storm shadow - that of course was due to doctrine and what F16 was designed for, and Mirage and Gripen were designed for it.

It might be that F16 can carry it, it might not - the Ukes are pretty decent at getting variant kit to paly nicely together so they'll doubtless give it a try. I'd still think, particularly given limited numbers of Storm shadow, the Sukhoi in the Ukrainian airframe would be better bets as this is what theyt're designed for, although this might be part of a push to migrate off Soviet platforms.

If carrying Storm Shadows was the priority Ukraine would have asked for F-15E Strike Eagles.

[tabascoboy]