What's going on in Ukraine?

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It's already starting to get hard to know what conflict reports are factual and which are hearsay.

Now this...

Tweet will not embed for some reason, but original does show a video
More footage. Hackers hacked TV and radio in Russia and broadcast this video on several channels and radio stations.

"Russians, brothers and sisters, today at 4 am Ukrainian troops, armed with the NATO bloc with the West and with the support of Washington, invaded the territory of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions. Our border guards and the Armed Forces gave a worthy rebuff, surpassing the force of the aggressor. Also today I will sign a decree on general mobilization, since in order to defeat a dangerous and insidious enemy, we need to counteract all the forces of the Russian Federation. The enemy will be defeated, victory will be ours, " — the record says in Putin's voice.

Putin also (on this video) talks about the mandatory evacuation of residents of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions.
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The Germans will decide in the next fortnight whether they will give Eurofighter Typhoons to Ukraine. These would be Tranche 1 aircraft so purely interceptors/air superiority aircraft, no ground attack/SEAD capability. But the big upside is they have a longer range radar than the F-16AM/BM; and they carry Meteors, which are pretty much the best BVRAAMs out there and which the Russians have no response to.

They can shoot down Russian MiG-31s and Su-35s without them ever knowing they were there. They would also free up the F-16s and MiG-29s to focus on SEAD and ground attack.
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tabascoboy wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:04 pm It's already starting to get hard to know what conflict reports are factual and which are hearsay.

Now this...

Tweet will not embed for some reason, but original does show a video
More footage. Hackers hacked TV and radio in Russia and broadcast this video on several channels and radio stations.

"Russians, brothers and sisters, today at 4 am Ukrainian troops, armed with the NATO bloc with the West and with the support of Washington, invaded the territory of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions. Our border guards and the Armed Forces gave a worthy rebuff, surpassing the force of the aggressor. Also today I will sign a decree on general mobilization, since in order to defeat a dangerous and insidious enemy, we need to counteract all the forces of the Russian Federation. The enemy will be defeated, victory will be ours, " — the record says in Putin's voice.

Putin also (on this video) talks about the mandatory evacuation of residents of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions.
Budanov fulfilling his promise of "it will get worse".
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:21 pm The Germans will decide in the next fortnight whether they will give Eurofighter Typhoons to Ukraine. These would be Tranche 1 aircraft so purely interceptors/air superiority aircraft, no ground attack/SEAD capability. But the big upside is they have a longer range radar than the F-16AM/BM; and they carry Meteors, which are pretty much the best BVRAAMs out there and which the Russians have no response to.

They can shoot down Russian MiG-31s and Su-35s without them ever knowing they were there. They would also free up the F-16s and MiG-29s to focus on SEAD and ground attack.
Be interesting to see them up against SU-57 as well if Russia actually has any that fly.
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...He says this is designed to take the high ground to the south of Bakhmut, which could set up an advance towards the Vuhlehirska Power Station and threaten movement to Holmivskyi and Horlivka. He also claims Ukraine tried to advance in Vodyane and Opytne SW of Avdiivka. 2/

He says the attacks in the Avdiivka and Vuhledar areas were mostly company size (up to battalion size in Vuhledar counting two directions), indicating that Ukraine has not committed its main effort. 3/
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A few claims here and there from Russian sources about seeing Leopard tanks, but unverified and unknown if they could even recognize them with certainty as one on a lowish quality drone capture pic was an AMX recon vehicle

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OMG - colour me convinced! #irony The replies :lolno:
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I don't know if that long list of RU senior officers known/suspected KIA is being kept up-to-date, but another one is claimed by the RU Resistance

We would like to inform you that a joint group of the Legion "Freedom of Russia" and the RVC liquidated Colonel Andrey Vasilievich Stesev, senior of the Belgorod task force.
He died in a shooting battle, like an officer with a weapon in his hands, but it must be admitted that his hands are up to the elbows in blood.

He and his subordinates, on his orders, systematically terrorized the population of the Belgorod region, violated their rights and freedoms. Previously, Stesev killed civilians in Chechnya, Yugoslavia, Abkhazia and Ukraine.
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Looks like Bulgaria is finally going to form a proper government and it's pro-Ukrainian. In particular the nominated Defence Minister is an ex-army officer, Todor Tagarev, who is also a former defence minster (2013), and was a military advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence from 2009 to 2011. We should start to see a massive increase in Bulgarian military aid.
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:18 pm Looks like Bulgaria is finally going to form a proper government and it's pro-Ukrainian. In particular the nominated Defence Minister is an ex-army officer, Todor Tagarev, who is also a former defence minster (2013), and was a military advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence from 2009 to 2011. We should start to see a massive increase in Bulgarian military aid.
From what I can gather it was already substantial but covert
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yermum wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:23 pm
Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:18 pm Looks like Bulgaria is finally going to form a proper government and it's pro-Ukrainian. In particular the nominated Defence Minister is an ex-army officer, Todor Tagarev, who is also a former defence minster (2013), and was a military advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence from 2009 to 2011. We should start to see a massive increase in Bulgarian military aid.
From what I can gather it was already substantial but covert
Yes, but it was constrained by that covertness. It was all sale to third parties bullshit. Everything should be going directly to Ukraine with no middle-men now. And it'll probably include heavier stuff they weren't prepared to send to this point, for example they have a shit ton of T-72s in storage and about 160 in active service.
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I will laugh so hard if everything kicks off at 6:30am BST tomorrow.
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:51 pm I will laugh so hard if everything kicks off at 6:30am BST tomorrow.
French TV is showing an old classic : (Le mur de l'atlantique : funny take on resistance and D day with Bourvil)
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If genuine, just how long can this callous negligence continue before it gets out of RU MoD control? Are they planning to prevent mutiny by simply leaving them to die first? RU command is truly f*cked up

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AMX-10RCs have seen their first combat at Novodonetsk. These are the "Leopards" the Russians said they saw earlier.
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:28 pm
As the line goes in Full Metal Jacket:

"Never fired, & only dropped once !"
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AFU have pushed another 1.5km at Bakhmut.
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Surprised they only found this now, but then again Kharkiv Oblast is bigger than Belgium in fairness.

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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:22 pm AFU have pushed another 1.5km at Bakhmut.
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So that week or so when Zaluzhnyi "disappeared/died", was because he was in an unspecified European country, participating in the final set of Ukrainian-NATO wargames before the Ukrainian General Staff finalised the plans for the Summer Offensive. They've been planning for 5 months and have had several wargaming sessions in Europe, which have included, among others, the US Army V Corps; and which have each time resulted in both operational changes/refinements and additional equipment lists, as weaknesses or lacunae have been identified. After this last session both parties were satisfied that all major issues had been resolved and the gears went into motion.
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Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the man with Ukraine’s future in his hands

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian troops will be the ultimate test of leadership for the army’s commander-in-chief, a hero in his country and the only person whose popularity compares to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s

Russia’s number-one enemy isn’t Volodymyr Zelenskiy. If there’s one Ukrainian that Moscow would like to eliminate, it’s Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Last week, the Russian news agency Tass reported that Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, had suffered a serious head injury during a missile attack on a command post on the frontline in Kherson. The claim was greeted by jubilation on Russian social media. Zaluzhnyi is seen publicly only intermittently, and Russian propaganda sought to portray his absence from view as a sign that Ukraine’s chief military hero was now out of action. However, Zaluzhnyi reappeared a few days later, taking to social media to stress that he remained in one piece and was ready to lead the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive that is expected to define the outcome of the war.

In Ukraine, Zaluzhnyi is the only person whose popularity compares to that of the president. Zelenskiy is the first politician to have earned widespread respect among a population used to political quarrel after political quarrel. Ukrainians have tended to write their leaders off as corrupt, as puppets controlled by the economic power of the oligarchs — and of Russia. Zelenskiy comfortably won Ukraine’s presidential elections in 2019, before his party secured an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections that followed soon after. Polls show that the president would win even more comprehensively now. Firstly, because he didn’t flee when it seemed Kyiv could fall into Russian hands; secondly, because he is a leader who has fostered a Ukrainian society which, for the first time, is united by a clear national sentiment.

However, being respected is one thing; being admired is quite another. And Zaluzhnyi is admired. “He’s my idol,” says Vladislav Fadeev, the mayor of Vatutine, a town of some 1,200 inhabitants in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv province. “We thank God for giving us this man. We trust him to lead us to victory.” In February, Vatutine’s municipal parliament voted to change the town’s name to Zaluzhne, in the commander-in-chief’s honor. A town founded in 1948, Vatutine’s current name commemorates the Soviet general Nikolai Vatutin, a Second World War hero. News of the planned change spread like wildfire across Ukraine.

“Every era has its heroes,” Fadeev says, “and we have to move with the times.” Not everyone is so sure about the change. “It should have been put to a vote among residents,” says Alexandra Tridub, 36, as she walks through the countryside town with her baby. “It’s going to cause a right old mess, because there are already two Vatutines in Ukraine and the postal service is always getting them mixed up. Now, every region across the country will have a town named after Zaluzhnyi.”

Vatutine’s new name must be approved first by the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory, then by the country’s parliament, Fadeev explains. The loophole that the town hall has found to ward off a potential veto — which would seek to avoid too many Zaluzhnyis appearing on the Ukrainian map — is the choice of the name Zaluzhne, which can mean “beyond the fields” in Ukrainian. And why not rechristen the town after Zelenskiy? Fadeev replies that there will certainly be many places that will take the president’s name in future, but Vatutine won’t be one of them.

Generals and politics

What other Ukrainian general could Vatutine be named after? As she buys seeds for her vegetable garden at the only grocery store open in the town, Natalia Hakonenko admits that she can’t answer that question. “I don’t know any other generals, because I prefer not to comment on politics,” Hakonenko says. Her words bring to mind a remark made to this newspaper by a chief of staff for one of the members of Ukraine’s general staff in May: “In Ukraine, generals don’t only have military influence, but also political influence. And they don’t only have military enemies, but also political enemies.” In a country as highly militarized as Ukraine, it’s common to see major military officials move into politics.

Zelenskiy appointed Zaluzhnyi as commander-in-chief in 2021, tasking him with modernizing the country’s armed forces, moving them away from the rigid, hierarchical Soviet model. EL PAÍS has spoken to a high-ranking military official who is close to Zaluzhnyi, and a member of the Rada — the country’s parliament — who is in regular contact with Ukraine’s military leaders. Both individuals, who have asked to remain anonymous, agree that the president and the commander-in-chief are pulling in the same direction — but have their differences, too. Those differences, they say, aren’t so much caused by Zelenskiy himself as the team surrounding the president, particularly his right-hand man, Andriy Yermak. For example, EL PAÍS’ sources reveal, heads of state and government have sought meetings with Zaluzhnyi, but the president’s office has been quick to scotch such proposals.

Zaluzhnyi has only given three interviews in the 15 months since the Russian invasion began. Two were to overseas magazines — Time and The Economist — and the other was a video interview with the Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Komarov. In his sit-down with Komarov in May, Zaluzhnyi came across as comfortable in front of the camera, a good speaker with an ability to get through to the ordinary citizen with phrases that combine humility and heft. If there’s anyone who can compete with Zelenskiy politically, it is Zaluzhnyi. There are no indications that the general is planning to, but it is by no means an outlandish idea. When this newspaper visited a military post that keeps watch over the border between Kharkhiv province and Russia on Saturday, the soldiers stationed there discussed the possibility of their commander-in-chief running in future presidential elections. “When I watched his interview with Komarov, what I saw was an exceptional person on a human level, above and beyond his role as a military leader,” says Ruslan, a border-patrol soldier. “I don’t know whether or not he’d be a good politician, but he certainly has the potential to connect with people.”

Zaluzhnyi has given his opinion on political decisions on only a handful of occasions — but when he has, he has had an effect. In December, he spoke out in support of proposed legislation aimed at toughening the penalties handed down to deserters. Zelenskiy was left with no option but to sign the bill into law. The commander-in-chief has only once been at the center of political controversy. In January, the Rada posted a photo online of Zaluzhnyi next to a painting of Stepan Bandera, who led the Ukrainian far-right during the 1930s and 40s, and is a figure with legendary status among the country’s most radical nationalists. Complaints by the Polish government, a major ally of Ukraine, forced the parliament to remove the image.

In the lead-up to the Russian invasion, Zelenskiy and Zaluzhnyi had adopted different stances. While the president ruled out a Russian attack right up until the last moment, the commander-in-chief deemed it an inevitability. “We had been at war for eight years, we knew this would happen,” Zaluzhnyi told his interview with Komarov, referring to the Donbas war and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “We had been preparing for this for eight years.” In the first interview he gave after the invasion, to Time, Zaluzhnyi outlined how in the weeks before it began he had set about preparing the defense of Kyiv in total secret.

When Zelenskiy came to power, he promised dialogue with Russia in a bid to end the war in Donbas. In March 2022, when Russia’s invasion was just a few weeks old and Kyiv was under siege, he continued to offer dialogue to Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to sources consulted by EL PAÍS, Zaluzhnyi was at pains during the early stages of the war to persuade the president’s office that Ukraine could defend itself and turn the situation around.

Speaking to soldiers on the frontline, it’s common to hear declarations of absolute faith in Zaluzhnyi; when it comes to Zelenskiy, less so. In Bakhmut, where a brave defense of the eastern city has now lasted for eight months, there is regular criticism of Zelenskiy among soldiers, who hold him chiefly responsible for a battle that has led to thousands of deaths with no apparent breakthrough. In reality, however, Zaluzhnyi has made it clear that the Bakhmut resistance is his decision.

“I’d like Zelenskiy to keep Zaluzhnyi in his post,” EL PAÍS was told in May by Olga Muja, a resident of Ostriv, a village in Zaporizhzhia province. This newspaper spoke to Muja as part of a journey across the war’s frontline. Ostriv sits on the western banks of the Dnipro river, opposite the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant in Enerhodar. Muja is 66 and is retired. She says she doesn’t know anything about military matters, but has blind faith in the commander-in chief. When asked about Zelenskiy, her immediate reaction is silence, her head tilted to one side. Finally, she says that, unlike others, he didn’t flee when the war began and has remained the country’s spearhead, proving particularly effective at earning international support. “I think we’re lucky to have both of them leading the country,” says Hakonenko in Vatutine, the future Zaluzhne. “One governs the people and the other defends the country, and the results show that they’re a good team,” Fadeev adds.

Every day, Zelenskiy addresses the nation. Zaluzhnyi speaks publicly only now and again, but when he does, he has an extraordinary effect on public morale. That was clear to see when, at the end of May, he posted a patriotic video on social media, announcing that everything was set for Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive. His morale-boosting abilities were also in evidence when he was interviewed by Komarov. “It’ll take time, but we’ll free the Crimean peninsula, Donetsk and Luhansk,” Zaluzhnyi said. “I have no doubts about that. I know what we need to do.” The commander-in-chief’s words, Komarov responded, were exactly the message of hope that millions of Ukrainians were looking for.
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🇦🇺⚡️ Australia, the United States and Ukraine are discussing the possibility of sending 41 Australian Air Force F/A-18 aircraft to Ukraine to meet part of the demand for fighters , instead of sending them for scrap as previously planned, The Australian Financial Review.
The only issue here is that the F-18/A Hornet production line was shut down years ago, so logistic support means cannibalizing existing aircraft. But the US has the stockpile to be able to back fill parts.
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Russian lickspittle.
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There's a fairly horrific 11 minute video going around of a Ukrainian medic treating some badly injured troops after an artillery strike. One has part of his jaw blown off, but can still speak coherently so it appears his tongue is mostly intact, and the medic tells him to lies on his side or he might drown on his own blood.

The other has severe blast wounds to his legs and arms, and is bleeding from the eyes. He begs the medic to kill him. He tells him he's paid to keep him alive and stabilises the guy despite a shitty Chinese knock-off tourniquet breaking while he ties it.

The first lad is in shock but has enough faculties to walk out. The medic later posted to social media that both survived.
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:03 pm There's a fairly horrific 11 minute video going around of a Ukrainian medic treating some badly injured troops after an artillery strike. One has part of his jaw blown off, but can still speak coherently so it appears his tongue is mostly intact, and the medic tells him to lies on his side or he might drown on his own blood.

The other has severe blast wounds to his legs and arms, and is bleeding from the eyes. He begs the medic to kill him. He tells him he's paid to keep him alive and stabilises the guy despite a shitty Chinese knock-off tourniquet breaking while he ties it.

The first lad is in shock but has enough faculties to walk out. The medic later posted to social media that both survived.
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Looks like the fucknuckles have blown the nova kakovka dam.

This will flood the Russian occupied side of kherson, cut of the water supply to crimea and improve the cooling of the nuclear plant.
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laurent wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:56 am Looks like the fucknuckles have blown the nova kakovka dam.

This will flood the Russian occupied side of kherson, cut of the water supply to crimea and improve the cooling of the nuclear plant.
Seem to be more compelling reasons for Russia to do it than Ukraine, for sure - it's a very useful crossing point onto the left bank, and causes an immediate crisis due to flooding and need for evacuation which has to be dealt with as well as endangering the ZNPP. Trying to disrupt plans for the counter-offensive, no doubt they will try a few other things too.



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tabascoboy wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:20 am
laurent wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:56 am Looks like the fucknuckles have blown the nova kakovka dam.

This will flood the Russian occupied side of kherson, cut of the water supply to crimea and improve the cooling of the nuclear plant.
Seem to be more compelling reasons for Russia to do it than Ukraine, for sure - it's a very useful crossing point onto the left bank, and causes an immediate crisis due to flooding and need for evacuation which has to be dealt with as well as endangering the ZNPP. Trying to disrupt plans for the counter-offensive, no doubt they will try a few other things too.



Pretty much means they are getting ready to leave as the destruction condemns the nuclear plant (cannot refill it's cooling pool) and Crimea's water supply.
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Now I'm no general, but having to resort to the same tactics to secure your flank as the Belgians in autumn 1914 isn't strategically very convincing.

Edit: however couldn't the lowered water level make bridgeheads easier elsewhere on that front?
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If RU wasn't responsible as the inevitably anti-UA/West Twitter posters claim, then some Russians clearly didn't get the memo





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Usual caveats are necessary about unverified info on Twitter apply of course

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Very important on #Kakhovka. The chronology of the terrorist attack by Russian terrorists. Or how Russians screwed in their excuses.

At two o'clock in the morning, the Russians blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, but they don't see how much. It's not very visible, but it can still hit.

1. The Russians still think that they have neatly blown up a small part of the HPP and are flooding our military on the islands. At 6:06 a.m., the head of Nova Kakhovka, Leontyev, said that the explosion of the GES was nonsense. Like, we don't know why the water rose there. Here is the link to Ria Novosti's http://archive.is/aTyK8

2. Russian OSINT intelligence community Rybar picks up the thesis and says a small area was blown up at 6:51 a.m. Link http://archive.ph/flapa

3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF

4. But the propagandists, who do not know what the fuck has happened, continue to work according to the methodology and continue to throw into the information space that the dam was previously shelled, and then it got a little tired and broke a little. Here is a post by Podolyaki's propagandist http://archive.ph/DgQIV. And the propaganda channel War on Fakes http://archive.ph/GRN55

5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL

6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. Like it's a Bankova operation A reference to the same "war on fakes" that said the dam had somehow collapsed on its own.... http://archive.ph/x8uwT
But even in their excuses, the racists still screwed up. Either the dam was blown up, or Olha was shelled with MLRS.... http://archive.ph/uF0Xm Although any sapper will give a hundred percent guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage here was done by planting explosives

And then they are already beginning to adhere to this thesis, because what they have done is a huge international tragedy, especially in the environmental sense.

I have translated this text from https://t.me/jurnko Telegram channel
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