What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Exactly. Has a Trumpist 4d chess feel to it

It's real. Wagner downed valuable Russian air assets, Russian Federation air force bombed valuable oil storage facilities. There's other small details that give it authenticity, Wagner tanks on the low loaders had their crews riding with them, Wagner columns were large with a mix of vehicles (not just military vehicles for show).

If it was a psyop they wouldn't have chosen to destroy assets it's hard to replace and would've sacrificed some conscripts instead. Putin is a mad dictator not far off shuffling imaginary units around a map in his bunker, of course he tried to exercise authority when he had none. It's the same as when he ranted and lectured the African leaders on the peace mission over where the final borders should be, if they shrugged their shoulders disagreed and went home, Putin couldn't do anything and loses more friends.

I suspect I'm being miss-understood here. By saying it stinks I'm not conspiracy theorizing. I'm thinking somebody else is playing to their own agenda. There are much smarter ways the Kremlin could have handled this. What I think is likely happening is that Putin's absolute power is now fraying and decisions are being made he has to deal with rather than somebody asking nicely for permission first.

*If* there is a faction that believe peace or truce is now a must ( whether or not it requires total withdrawal ) and they are strong enough to not fear repercussions or covert enough, then they are the only ones that I could see with a motive. By showing vulnerability within Russia itself and a weak and slow response perhaps they hope that it would at least weaken Putin and at best provoke a change of policy and leadership.

My conjecture seems very flimsy though as most parties seem outwardly still very hawkish and other than an agency like the FSB or GRU I don't know who could conspire to try this. The only alternative would be the opposite, the real hard-liners who want to go all in and destroy Ukraine entirely since they would seem to have the most to gain from allying with Prigozhin.

Every hypothesis seems to have flaws though...

[Raggs]

Does Prig have family? Could Putin have got ahold of them?

[tabascoboy]

All been rather quiet on the official front from the Kremlin, my wild uninformed guess is they are still trying to work out just what the hell was going on.

And now, what genius joint stunt are we going to see with Girkin then...

Note that the tweets don't embed from this source but can still be opened with the link

Terrorist Girkin calls on Putin to resign:

“If the president doesn’t take responsibility to the people for waging a big and serious war, how can you expect any other officials to be responsible for their actions?

If the incumbent president is not ready to take over the leadership of the process of transferring the country to a military footing, if he is not ready for the powers of the supreme commander in chief, then he simply needs to transfer them, but only legally, to someone who is capable of such hard work," he said on conference of the gang "Angry Patriots Club" created by him.

The militant who ignited the war in the Donbass in 2014 also called on the bunker grandfather to introduce martial law in the Russian Federation and prepare for a new stage of "distemper".

Girkin, in particular, told his comrades-in-arms that despite the curtailment of Prigozhin's rebellion, a coup d'état had taken place in the country.

[GogLais]

Somebody should have taken better Prigozhins.

[tabascoboy]

Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:

Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).

Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.

Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.

I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.

I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.

And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.

[tabascoboy]

Interesting update from Russian channel Two Majors about the situation on the left bank near the Antonivskyi bridge.

"The enemy holds a small foothold on our coast for at least three days. The units of the Russian Armed Forces withdrew from the area, as the constant action of enemy artillery and SOF of the enemy created a threat of encirclement of our forces. They retreated with battles, neighboring units came to the rescue. As a result of the fighting, the Russian Armed Forces suffered losses. At 18:00, the enemy, with forces of up to 50 people, operates on our territory, in the dark, builds up a group and supplies it with ammunition and technical equipment. Trying to expand the zone of control. A short distance across the water (up to 1 km) does not allow prompt artillery strikes against enemy high-speed boats.

[tabascoboy]

And another long analysis of yesterday



With all the tweets in one long text at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672 ... 95584.html

[Hellraiser]

If Prigozhin goes to Belarus, is there a chance that they launch a new offensive from the north of UKR?

No. It would be suicidal. All the bridges have been blown, the roads mined, artillery killzones created, on top of there being at least 70k troops stationed in the north which is close to three times the maximum number of mercs Wagner could field.

[Hellraiser]

The whole thing stinks from the get go. You don't order somebody's arrest when they've got twenty odd thousand battle hardened fully armed professional soldiers around them, along with the sympathies of a big chunk of the army and citizens.

Exactly. Has a Trumpist 4d chess feel to it

It's not. Prigozhin made a gamble for limited objectives that spun out of his control because of the chaotic response of the Russian authorities. He made Putin panic and look weak, and having Wagner mercs advance to within 200km of Moscow with minimal resistance so quickly left him with two bad options for survival - push on and take the Kremlin initiating a civil war, or seek a "negotiated" off-ramp such as what happened.

Regardless the vertical of power in Russia has been massively undermined, perhaps fatally so. Putin no longer exercises complete control and the regime can't rely on the armed forces, as exemplified by Wagner troops passing by three divisional bases; the 150th Motor Rifle Division in Novocherkassk, the 3rd Motor Rifle Division in Boguchar, and 106th Airborne Division in Tula, and not a single soldier came out. Additionally neither of the two Moscow based divisions; the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and 4th Guards Tank Division, prepared any defences. Chaos.

[Sandstorm]

Can’t even trust a Russian to follow through on a dangerous coup. Useless twats.

[tabascoboy]

It's all good; no harm, no foul

[Niegs]

If Prigozhin goes to Belarus, is there a chance that they launch a new offensive from the north of UKR?

No. It would be suicidal. All the bridges have been blown, the roads mined, artillery killzones created, on top of there being at least 70k troops stationed in the north which is close to three times the maximum number of mercs Wagner could field.

Is that front likely where they rotate troops to give them a rest?

[Hellraiser]

If Prigozhin goes to Belarus, is there a chance that they launch a new offensive from the north of UKR?

No. It would be suicidal. All the bridges have been blown, the roads mined, artillery killzones created, on top of there being at least 70k troops stationed in the north which is close to three times the maximum number of mercs Wagner could field.

Is that front likely where they rotate troops to give them a rest?

No, rotations don't work like that. It's mostly TDF, Border Guard, and reserve units up north and north west. But they are dug in, and there are only a limited number of border crossing points due to the terrain being mostly forest, marshland, and rivers.

[Niegs]

No. It would be suicidal. All the bridges have been blown, the roads mined, artillery killzones created, on top of there being at least 70k troops stationed in the north which is close to three times the maximum number of mercs Wagner could field.

Is that front likely where they rotate troops to give them a rest?

No, rotations don't work like that. It's mostly TDF, Border Guard, and reserve units up north and north west. But they are dug in, and there are only a limited number of border crossing points due to the terrain being mostly forest, marshland, and rivers.

Cheers for the synopsis ... and all the updates, too, btw! There seems to be more activity on PR, but I can't be bothered clicking links with no context. So it's good to scroll this page and get a gist of what you and others are sharing from twitter, etc.

[Raggs]

So current theory seems to be that Prig basically shit himself when he realised he was going to make it to Moscow, and he didn't really want to try and lead a revolution. Was grateful for a way to get out of it?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

So current theory seems to be that Prig basically shit himself when he realised he was going to make it to Moscow, and he didn't really want to try and lead a revolution. Was grateful for a way to get out of it?

Essentially.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

^ N.B. This seems to be claimed as old footage by RU Milbloggers

The Russian regime pundits are still extremely upset and confused regarding the events of the weekend. The clip speaks volumes and it is by far not an exception. Everybody understands that the “deal” is not worth anything and will continue sooner rather than later. Furthermore, the first acts of vengeance have been seen already when Russian soldiers executed other Russian soldiers for supporting Wagner. It also explains why the bulk of the Russian army was sitting back in a paralyzed state, waiting for whoever is going to win that powerplay.

Prigozhin have had the upper hand and has weakened Putin, considerably, but he made a mistake to underestimate even a weakened Putin because we know that Putin will never ever forgive Prigozhin, and he is certainly already plotting his vengeance. What they agreed was tenuous ceasefire which any side can and will break any time. Militarily seen this means that both, Putin and Prigozhin will keep considerable forces at their home-turf to keep the other side at bay, effective weakening the Russian war effort in Ukraine. This coup will only end when one of them will be dead.

For Ukraine this is very good news. Russians not only shot down several of their own planes, one was even an Il-20m SIGINT plane, but also highly confused the remaining troops on the ground. From what I see Ukrainian forces have advanced at 3 different areas since 36h. The war is unfortunately not over but the Ukrainian victory came considerably closer.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Whole thread in text and pics at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673 ... 56640.html

[yermum]

Somebody should have taken better Prigozhins.

And for that you get this meme

[tabascoboy]

[Hal Jordan]

Anyone fallen out of a window yet?

[tabascoboy]

Prigozhin appears to be around, for now, there is a radio interview reportedly from today

What were the prerequisites for the March for Justice?
- PMC Wagner carries out tasks around the world. It was meant to stop existing on 1 July 2023. “Employees” all refused to sign the contract with MoD, only 1-2% decided to join the Russian army.

- The original plan was to go to Rostov on 30 July and transfer all vehicles to MoD, which were ready for transport.

- Despite any aggression, Wagner suffered a missile attack, followed by helicopter attack. Around 30 PMC Wagner fighters died. This triggered an immediate decision to move out early and respond militarily.

- Throughout the 24-hour march, one column went to Moscow, another to Rostov. They made 780 km of progress in one day. They regret being forced to attack the army aircraft but the bombs were dropped which caused the response. During the march, all military objects on the way were blocked and disarmed. None of the military have died on the ground.

- The objective was to not allow destruction of Wagner and take to responsiblity those who with their unprofessional actions made a huge number of mistakes during the SMO. All the military met along the way supported this.

- Wagner stopped when the advanced storm unit deployed artillery, conducted reconnaissance and realised a lot of blood will be shed in an upcoming battle. They decided that demonstration of the protest was enough, and turned around.

- Factors that made Wagner turn around: first, they didn’t want to shed Russian blood. Secondly, they wanted to demonstrate their portest, not overtake the authority in Russia.

- Lukashenko offered to find solutions for further legal operation of Wagner legally. Columns turned aroound and went back to field camps.

- The march showed many things demonstrated before. Serious secruity concerns around the country. All military bases and airfields were blocked.

- If actions on 24 Feb 2022 were done by forces as trained as Wagner, the special operation could have ended in 1 day. This shows the level of organisation that the Russian army should be following.

Audio:

[Tichtheid]

[laurent]

https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-088 ... c4dfbccbf5

Ukraine really have taken fuck all ground and when you consider the onward defences. I had wondered how they would get around them and with great difficulty appears to be the answer

They have barely engaged any of the new brigades though going slow will save lives. The number artillery pieces they are knocking out is crazy.

[tabascoboy]

So Putin's great speech of tonight was...anti-climactic

[Hellraiser]

https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-088 ... c4dfbccbf5

Ukraine really have taken fuck all ground and when you consider the onward defences. I had wondered how they would get around them and with great difficulty appears to be the answer

They are clearing minefields as they go and have absolutely no intention of Zerg rushing into defensive strong points. This isn't a video game; combined arms offensives are difficult, doubly so in the absence of air superiority. It took three months to force the Russians across the Dnipro in Kherson last year.

Against all that they are progressing and inflicting significant losses on the Russians as they do so. Generally speaking an attacker suffers 2.5 to 3 times more losses than a defender, the equipment loss stats that have emerged so far point to a closer to 1:1 ratio. That is terrible for the Russians, because the Ukrainians have committed fuck all new units so far, and none of their reserves. On the other hand the Russians have been pulling troops out of south Kherson to shore up gaps.

Additionally their supply lines from both Crimea and Rostov have been severely disrupted by Ukrainian long range missile attacks and Prighozin's little adventure. Hence Russian units being forced out of Rivnopil earlier today because they ran too low on ammo.

[Hellraiser]

[Slick]

In your face Energise!

[Sandstorm]

Zelensky himself said they are doing a lot of fuck arsing about.

Whoa. There are children here, man.

[Hellraiser]

Zelensky himself said they are doing a lot of fuck arsing about.

Not what he said at all.

[tabascoboy]

Wonder what Prigozhin will say now, Putin's address seemed like backtracking on what we were told his earlier agreement to end the mutiny said.

[tabascoboy]

Danger of revealing too much about who cocked things up within the FSB so going to quietly drop it...?

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Shoigu getting an award for what? Not visibly shitting himself maybe

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]