Well that's assault & criminal damage, & all recorded for the Met too !tabascoboy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:32 pmThat's a challenge I expect them to take on with relish
Stop voting for fucking Tories
- fishfoodie
- Posts: 8223
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
"Don't you dare publish that"tabascoboy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:32 pmThat's a challenge I expect them to take on with relish
What a twat!
Feeling resentful after not getting the NATO job?SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:28 pmI thought Wallace was supposed to be "the" safe pair of hands in cabinet!!The Sun asks if Sunak would have said the comments made by Ben Wallace about Ukraine needing to show the west “gratitude”.
Sunak says: “President Zelenskiy has repeatedly expressed his gratitude to me and to the British people and indeed other allies as well. He did it very movingly in parliament when he was in the UK earlier this year.
I thought the Yanks had already said the thing?GogLais wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 4:02 pmFeeling resentful after not getting the NATO job?SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:28 pmI thought Wallace was supposed to be "the" safe pair of hands in cabinet!!The Sun asks if Sunak would have said the comments made by Ben Wallace about Ukraine needing to show the west “gratitude”.
Sunak says: “President Zelenskiy has repeatedly expressed his gratitude to me and to the British people and indeed other allies as well. He did it very movingly in parliament when he was in the UK earlier this year.
Edit - Jake Sullivan, US national security advisor.
While no fan of the Tories I think this comment has been taken out of context.GogLais wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 4:02 pmFeeling resentful after not getting the NATO job?SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:28 pmI thought Wallace was supposed to be "the" safe pair of hands in cabinet!!The Sun asks if Sunak would have said the comments made by Ben Wallace about Ukraine needing to show the west “gratitude”.
Sunak says: “President Zelenskiy has repeatedly expressed his gratitude to me and to the British people and indeed other allies as well. He did it very movingly in parliament when he was in the UK earlier this year.
- fishfoodie
- Posts: 8223
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
I think Zelenskiy is seeing his soldiers & civilians getting killed by barbarians, & listening to NATO et al worrying about escalation, & thinking to himself; how bad does it have to get before they; "Get It" !
NATO think he's being ungrateful, but they could do with walking a mile in his shoes.
I accept there are legitimate concerns around how far things can be pushed, but I can also imagine the massive stress, & heartche that Zelenskiy goes thru daily.
- Hal Jordan
- Posts: 4154
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:48 pm
- Location: Sector 2814
If only he had been put off his stroke a few times.Simian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 12:57 pmDude. That put me off my lunch.Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 12:47 pm There's always another baby announcement, he barebacks more than a rodeo rider with three shows to do before dinnertime.
So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
I'm not an avid follower of politics but seems like an open net 1 yard out for Labour next GE. New ideas required.C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:15 am So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
What reforms are likely to be brought in by Starmer and co., or is it too early for a clear direction yet?
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
- fishfoodie
- Posts: 8223
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
Don't forget house prices are falling !, so your extra interest is going on a depreciating asset.C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:15 am So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
With the economy in the state it’s in they can only tinker at the margins. Honesty and competence would be good. I fear there’s little chance of constitutional stuff like PR or HoL reform. But really everything stands or falls on our weak economy and low productivity.Jim Lahey wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:24 amI'm not an avid follower of politics but seems like an open net 1 yard out for Labour next GE. New ideas required.C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:15 am So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
What reforms are likely to be brought in by Starmer and co., or is it too early for a clear direction yet?
-
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:31 am
As far as I am aware, Labour are not getting rid of any tory policies re social security.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
You not a labour supporter then ?Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:49 am As far as I am aware, Labour are not getting rid of any tory policies re social security.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
If wales were Independant, who would fund those food banks ? Tom Jones ?!
Gav must have a few bob left down the back of his sofa.Yeeb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:59 amYou not a labour supporter then ?Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:49 am As far as I am aware, Labour are not getting rid of any tory policies re social security.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
If wales were Independant, who would fund those food banks ? Tom Jones ?!
And there's always Gareth Bale.
Ian Madigan for Ireland.
Fortunately I have paid off my mortgage.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:07 amDon't forget house prices are falling !, so your extra interest is going on a depreciating asset.C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:15 am So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
The Tories will be fighting the next General Election on culture wars issues - immigration, cancel culture, woke lefties, etc - so expect it to be even more dirty and messy than usual. The likes of 30p Anderson and Angry Man Gullis are who the Tories see as their secret weapons to engage with the masses ... feckin idiots!C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:13 amFortunately I have paid off my mortgage.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:07 amDon't forget house prices are falling !, so your extra interest is going on a depreciating asset.C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:15 am So GDP down and no growth since 2019.
Interes rate rise mean less ability for industry to invest.
The Pay Review bodies to recommend rises greater than the Govt will resource.
Mortgages to rise by £500 a month.
Not a great look for UK PLC and the government.
Omnishambles springs to mind.
I suspect that there will be a focus on Corbyn etc The Deputy PM tried it at PMQs yesterday.dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:56 amThe Tories will be fighting the next General Election on culture wars issues - immigration, cancel culture, woke lefties, etc - so expect it to be even more dirty and messy than usual. The likes of 30p Anderson and Angry Man Gullis are who the Tories see as their secret weapons to engage with the masses ... feckin idiots!C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:13 amFortunately I have paid off my mortgage.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:07 am
Don't forget house prices are falling !, so your extra interest is going on a depreciating asset.
They had better tread carefully with that one.
When people have massive mortgage and energy payments, can't see a doctor or a dentist.
Interestingly there is grumblings of massive NHS strikes in the new year as well as other sextors
This is even more likely if PRBs are ignored.
Tbh the govt is in a terrible position of their own making.
If they accept the PRBs purported increases of 6-6.5% then it will be perceived the Nurses with 5% were shafted.
If they don't accept the PRBs then there will be a summer and winter of continued strikes.
Obviously if they accept the PRB and say it must come from existing monies then it's gonna be somewhat problematic.
By problematic I mean fucking lunacy.
Some interesting things going on there.
One of the Tory Brexit claims was the UK could be a "sovereign equal", that just leaving the EU would make the UK equal to all other states and regional blocs. Frost's view that the UK and EU being sat at a table is two equal entities. This wasn't true, power (aka sovereignty) is defined by relative strength and the rules states agree to follow.
Back to the NATO summit. Ukraine is determined to follow more of the rules, it wants to be a NATO and EU member. In other words it wants to have more sovereignty (aka power) than it would have on its own. In a nutshell that's what Russia's invasion of Ukraine since 2014 is about, Russia losing soft power and resorting to hard power.
It doesn't seem like Wallace gets how any of this works, and why those comments wouldn't be taken well. The "sovereign equal" logic is really a rejection that relative strength and rules matter at all, it's the claim the UK can just demand status and get it because it's the UK. That seems to be the logic Wallace is using to interpret Ukraine's actions (Wallace supported remain in 2016, but basically became a hard Brexiter afterwards). But that's not what Ukraine is doing, they're playing by NATO and EU rules (even in how they've conducted a war for survival, outside the rules things like mass killings of POWs or indiscriminate targeting of civilians all become possible, something Ukraine has avoided). If Ukraine were rejecting not only Russia but also NATO and the EU, then making demands of NATO and the EU, the war wouldn't be going so well for Ukraine.
The gratitude is in playing by the rules and wanting to be an equal member of NATO and the EU. Which for the UK will really just means the added security responsibility of defending Ukraine without much benefit. It's Tory contradictions (which Wallace was part of and supported) that means the UK's role is to be an Amazon for weapons, Wallace needs to stop crying and make more Amazon deliveries, or stop making his Amazon deliveries and lose even more influence.
They're not reluctant, they just don't support Ukraine, Trump Republicans want to cut a deal with Putin and think he's a reasonable guy. Characters in the UK like Farage have a similar view. They would probably prefer NATO doesn't exist and see the EU as a rival.
Wallace's comments about not being an Amazon warehouse were on Wallace's own account made in private a year ago, he has now decided to share them, because he thinks (stupidly) this will help Ukraine apparently. His comments aren't going to help Ukraine and have given supporters of Putin/Russia a pile of soundbites "as Ben Wallace the UK's defence minister said, Ukraine is ungrateful and is treating us like an Amazon store".
Ukraine will keep following all the NATO and EU rules they can, whilst making demands for what they need. The people who oppose NATO and the EU will keep opposing Ukraine.
-
- Posts: 8665
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:48 am
A little bit of good news, Tory attempts to undermine strikes by allowing companies to use agency workers struck down by the High Court.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... rt-verdict
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... rt-verdict
- tabascoboy
- Posts: 6475
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
- Location: 曇りの街
Well, well; in the latest "well shit we never saw this coming", it turns out BB has now very conveniently "forgotten his pass code" for his phone!
-
- Posts: 2097
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:04 pm
Meh, stick him in a jail cell and hold him for contempt until he remembers
- fishfoodie
- Posts: 8223
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
Honey + Testicles + Fire AntsRhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:52 pm Meh, stick him in a jail cell and hold him for contempt until he remembers
If he doesn't recall with 5 minutes I'll be very surprised, & at least the planet won't have to deal with any more of his spawn
-
- Posts: 2097
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:04 pm
history says he'd get one (or more) of the fire ants pregnantfishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:17 pmHoney + Testicles + Fire AntsRhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:52 pm Meh, stick him in a jail cell and hold him for contempt until he remembers
If he doesn't recall with 5 minutes I'll be very surprised, & at least the planet won't have to deal with any more of his spawn
- Uncle fester
- Posts: 4202
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:42 pm
Welsh TV moneyYeeb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:59 amYou not a labour supporter then ?Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:49 am As far as I am aware, Labour are not getting rid of any tory policies re social security.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
If wales were Independant, who would fund those food banks ? Tom Jones ?!
Yeeb and Fester the Brains Trust.Uncle fester wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:21 pmWelsh TV moneyYeeb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:59 amYou not a labour supporter then ?Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:49 am As far as I am aware, Labour are not getting rid of any tory policies re social security.
So Bedroom tax, 2 child limit, terrorising the poor sick and unemployed, universal credit system, The PIP assessment system, the sanctions regime ...foodbanks.. all staying in place.
So straight away the poor are going to pay.
Lots more "death by middle class morality tale" and finger jabbing.
Wales may as well go for independence.
What the fuck have we got to lose?
There will always be foodbanks.
If wales were Independant, who would fund those food banks ? Tom Jones ?!
Tbh hard to argue with the sentiments of Refry.
Labour and Tory lite again
A rehashed New Labour with Starmer as Blair. The show contempt for the working class politics and redistributed wealth whilst courting Rupert.
Moving ever more to the right and I suppose for some the pursuit of climbing the greasy pole is all that matters.
But to what end?
- tabascoboy
- Posts: 6475
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
- Location: 曇りの街
Looks like the BB finally remembered just where he wrote that number down
-
- Posts: 184
- Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:51 am
So the school that Badenoch directed Ofsted to inspect has been found to have no serious concerns and has a culture of kindness and mutual support. I wonder if that's her advancement in tatters now
It will be written on a scrap of paper sellotaped to the bottom of his desk drawer - isn't that what everyone does?tabascoboy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:12 pm Looks like the BB finally remembered just where he wrote that number down
- Insane_Homer
- Posts: 5389
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
- Location: Leafy Surrey
0000 must've been really hard to remember.
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
- fishfoodie
- Posts: 8223
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
I was think more like "80085" , given the juvenile delinquent in question.
It's worth reading the OBR's July 2023 report (it's long but still worth skimming through). The (Tory supporting multi billionaire owned) media is taking the UK into an unreality, a lot of the stories that dominate the news are inane and irrelevant bullshit: Royal family/Farage's bank account/Schofield/Edwards. It makes reading about reality in some dry document worthwhile.
In a serious country some of these facts would exist in the public debate, rather than weeks of playing "guess the paedo".
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal_ ... y_2023.pdf
Page 3:
"The 2020s are turning out to be a very risky era for the public finances. In just three years,
they have been hit by the Covid pandemic in early 2020, the energy and cost-of-living crisis
from mid-2021, and the sudden interest rate rises in 2022, whose consequences continue
to unfold. This rapid succession of shocks has delivered the deepest recession in three
centuries, the sharpest rise in energy prices since the 1970s, and the steepest sustained rise
in borrowing costs since the 1990s. And they have pushed government borrowing to its
highest level since the mid-1940s, the stock of government debt to its highest level since the
early 1960s, and the cost of servicing that debt to its highest since the late 1980s. "
Page 16:
"The ageing of the population is projected to reduce the ratio of the working age to
retired population from four-to-one to three-to-one over the next 50 years, despite an
upward revision to assumed levels of net inward migration from 129,000 to 245,000
a year in steady state"
Page 99:
"Over the first 23 years of this century, public sector net debt in the UK has trebled as a
share of GDP from under 30 per cent in 2000 to around 100 per cent this year – a 62-year
high."
"In the UK and many other advanced economies, debt levels have reached generational
highs not only due to the upward pressures exerted by these shocks but also the challenges
governments have faced in trying to reduce debt following these shocks. Fiscal tailwinds
from a post-World War II baby boom, global economic integration, and easing of Cold
War tensions have switched to headwinds in the first part of this century. Public finances are
now under growing pressure from ageing populations, disappointing economic growth, a
warming planet, and rising geopolitical tensions."
Page 100:
"During the latter half of the 20th century, the UK also experienced periods of rising debt –
most notably during the early 1970s energy crisis, the early 1980s recession, and the early
1990s recession. Yet, these episodes were typically brief, intermittent, and reversed within a
few years. And so, overall and in most years, the history of the second half of the last
century was one of falling debt, with public sector net debt falling by an average of 4.2 per
cent of GDP a year between 1946 and 2000. This relatively consistent decline in post-war
public indebtedness was facilitated by a confluence of economic and fiscal tailwinds."
Page 104:
"Since the last time the UK government had a debt of 100 per cent of GDP, the share whose
value is directly linked to inflation has gone from zero to one-quarter, the highest share of
inflation-linked debt of any G7 country. ILGs were first issued in the UK in the early 1980s
and their share of total UK gilts increased from 16.4 per cent in 1990, to 23.2 per cent by
the start of the century, and then sharply to a peak of 31.2 per cent by 2008 (Chart 4.4). A
combination of high primary issuance (averaging 23 per cent of total gilt sales in the early
2000s), the increase in the principal owed due to inflation, and the relatively long maturity
of ILGs, caused their share of the overall stock of gilts to steadily increase. In 2018, the
Treasury estimated that continued issuance at these then-prevailing levels would eventually
mean that ILGs made up about 40 per cent of the stock.6 As this debt has been issued at
low real yields it helped to keep the UK’s real cost of servicing its public debt low. But when
inflation rises, as it has recently, the debt interest cost rises fast. "
Page 105:
"This level of inflation sensitivity in the Government’s debt stock is historically unprecedented,
as there were no ILGs in issuance when debt was last at 100 per cent of GDP in the early
1960s, and issuance had only just begun the last time annual RPI inflation was in double
digits (at 11.9 per cent) in 1981. The UK Government’s degree of debt indexation is also
unusual among advanced economies. As Chart 4.5 shows, the UK has over twice the
proportion of inflation-linked debt than the next largest inflation-linked issuer, being Italy at
12 per cent."
Page 106:
"The UK Government’s high level of debt and the high share of ILGs meant that the high
inflation of the past two years has sharply increased both debt interest costs and the stock of
debt itself. Expenditure on central government debt interest (net of the APF) increased by
£89 billion (3.4 per cent of GDP) due to the impact of inflation on the interest costs from the
stock of ILGs across 2021-22 and 2022-23. This was more than half of total central
government interest costs in those years. And while the inflation-linked increase in the
principal value of ILGs does not generate an immediate cash outflow (since it is paid in the
future when the ILG in question is redeemed), it does cause an immediate increase in the
cash value of outstanding debt, and, to the extent that RPI inflation exceeds growth in
nominal GDP, an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio too. With current Government plans
consistent with debt remaining high and the stock of ILGs also relatively flat, the
comparatively high sensitivity of interest costs to inflation will persist"
Page 109:
"Over the last two decades, the share of UK sovereign debt in the hands of private foreign
investors has doubled and is now the second highest in the G7. The UK Government has
historically benefitted from a broad and deep pool of domestic investors for its debt. These
principally took the form of institutional investors such as private pension funds and
insurance companies, for whom long-dated gilts were a good match for their own longdated,
sterling-denominated pension liabilities. These stable domestic institutional investors
kept the share of foreign private ownership in the UK the lowest in the G7 after the US and
Japan (Chart 4.7). However, foreign private ownership of UK debt rose significantly in the
early part of this century from around 13 per cent in 2004 to 25 per cent in 2022. With the
European Central Bank purchasing significant shares of German, French, and Italian
government debt in the meantime, this leaves the UK with the second-highest proportion of
its sovereign debt in foreign, non-official hands in the G7, behind France."
Page 110:
"As the stock of foreign holdings of UK debt has risen this century, so have questions about the
risks of increasing, relatively high, levels of these holdings. Foreign privately owned UK debt as a
proportion of total debt has almost doubled to 25 per cent since 2004 and is now well above the
advanced economy average of 18 per cent. "
Page 114:
"However, the rise in global inflation since the pandemic has delivered little net benefit to the
UK public finances relative to the inflation surprises of the past. This is partly because this
most recent inflation shock has been closer to a pure ‘terms of trade’ shock, in which the
rise in the prices of the things the UK imports and consumes (manufactured goods, energy,
and food) has far outstripped the rise in the prices of the things the UK produces and
exports (mainly services)."
"The gaps between the annual rates of increase in the GDP deflator and both RPI and CPI
were the largest on record (since 1949). Combined with the higher stock of ILGs (which
respond to RPI) and the short effective maturity on debt (which has meant interest rate rises
have fed through quickly), this has meant the fiscal benefit that the public finances have
derived from this latest round of inflation has been muted compared with the more
domestically driven inflation shocks of the past century. In fact, 2022 is one of only three
peacetime years since the early nineteenth century in which CPI inflation exceeded 9 per
cent and debt did not fall as a share of GDP."
Page 126:
"Overall, the increase in our net migration assumption from 129,000 to 245,000 per year has led to a 1.1 and 30 per
cent of GDP reduction in the primary deficit and net debt by 2072-73."
Page 127:
"By the end of our medium-term forecast period, we project debt
to reach about 100 per cent of GDP, after which it rises to over 300 per cent of GDP by
2072-73. If a government wanted instead to keep debt from rising above 100 per cent of
GDP over the long term, this would require a permanent increase in taxes and/or cut in
spending of 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2028-29. There is also an alternative, and arguably
more realistic, adjustment that estimates the staggered improvement in the primary balance
in each decade to reach this level of debt. We estimate this to be a 1.5 per cent of GDP
adjustment made to the primary balance every decade."
In a serious country some of these facts would exist in the public debate, rather than weeks of playing "guess the paedo".
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal_ ... y_2023.pdf
Page 3:
"The 2020s are turning out to be a very risky era for the public finances. In just three years,
they have been hit by the Covid pandemic in early 2020, the energy and cost-of-living crisis
from mid-2021, and the sudden interest rate rises in 2022, whose consequences continue
to unfold. This rapid succession of shocks has delivered the deepest recession in three
centuries, the sharpest rise in energy prices since the 1970s, and the steepest sustained rise
in borrowing costs since the 1990s. And they have pushed government borrowing to its
highest level since the mid-1940s, the stock of government debt to its highest level since the
early 1960s, and the cost of servicing that debt to its highest since the late 1980s. "
Page 16:
"The ageing of the population is projected to reduce the ratio of the working age to
retired population from four-to-one to three-to-one over the next 50 years, despite an
upward revision to assumed levels of net inward migration from 129,000 to 245,000
a year in steady state"
Page 99:
"Over the first 23 years of this century, public sector net debt in the UK has trebled as a
share of GDP from under 30 per cent in 2000 to around 100 per cent this year – a 62-year
high."
"In the UK and many other advanced economies, debt levels have reached generational
highs not only due to the upward pressures exerted by these shocks but also the challenges
governments have faced in trying to reduce debt following these shocks. Fiscal tailwinds
from a post-World War II baby boom, global economic integration, and easing of Cold
War tensions have switched to headwinds in the first part of this century. Public finances are
now under growing pressure from ageing populations, disappointing economic growth, a
warming planet, and rising geopolitical tensions."
Page 100:
"During the latter half of the 20th century, the UK also experienced periods of rising debt –
most notably during the early 1970s energy crisis, the early 1980s recession, and the early
1990s recession. Yet, these episodes were typically brief, intermittent, and reversed within a
few years. And so, overall and in most years, the history of the second half of the last
century was one of falling debt, with public sector net debt falling by an average of 4.2 per
cent of GDP a year between 1946 and 2000. This relatively consistent decline in post-war
public indebtedness was facilitated by a confluence of economic and fiscal tailwinds."
Page 104:
"Since the last time the UK government had a debt of 100 per cent of GDP, the share whose
value is directly linked to inflation has gone from zero to one-quarter, the highest share of
inflation-linked debt of any G7 country. ILGs were first issued in the UK in the early 1980s
and their share of total UK gilts increased from 16.4 per cent in 1990, to 23.2 per cent by
the start of the century, and then sharply to a peak of 31.2 per cent by 2008 (Chart 4.4). A
combination of high primary issuance (averaging 23 per cent of total gilt sales in the early
2000s), the increase in the principal owed due to inflation, and the relatively long maturity
of ILGs, caused their share of the overall stock of gilts to steadily increase. In 2018, the
Treasury estimated that continued issuance at these then-prevailing levels would eventually
mean that ILGs made up about 40 per cent of the stock.6 As this debt has been issued at
low real yields it helped to keep the UK’s real cost of servicing its public debt low. But when
inflation rises, as it has recently, the debt interest cost rises fast. "
Page 105:
"This level of inflation sensitivity in the Government’s debt stock is historically unprecedented,
as there were no ILGs in issuance when debt was last at 100 per cent of GDP in the early
1960s, and issuance had only just begun the last time annual RPI inflation was in double
digits (at 11.9 per cent) in 1981. The UK Government’s degree of debt indexation is also
unusual among advanced economies. As Chart 4.5 shows, the UK has over twice the
proportion of inflation-linked debt than the next largest inflation-linked issuer, being Italy at
12 per cent."
Page 106:
"The UK Government’s high level of debt and the high share of ILGs meant that the high
inflation of the past two years has sharply increased both debt interest costs and the stock of
debt itself. Expenditure on central government debt interest (net of the APF) increased by
£89 billion (3.4 per cent of GDP) due to the impact of inflation on the interest costs from the
stock of ILGs across 2021-22 and 2022-23. This was more than half of total central
government interest costs in those years. And while the inflation-linked increase in the
principal value of ILGs does not generate an immediate cash outflow (since it is paid in the
future when the ILG in question is redeemed), it does cause an immediate increase in the
cash value of outstanding debt, and, to the extent that RPI inflation exceeds growth in
nominal GDP, an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio too. With current Government plans
consistent with debt remaining high and the stock of ILGs also relatively flat, the
comparatively high sensitivity of interest costs to inflation will persist"
Page 109:
"Over the last two decades, the share of UK sovereign debt in the hands of private foreign
investors has doubled and is now the second highest in the G7. The UK Government has
historically benefitted from a broad and deep pool of domestic investors for its debt. These
principally took the form of institutional investors such as private pension funds and
insurance companies, for whom long-dated gilts were a good match for their own longdated,
sterling-denominated pension liabilities. These stable domestic institutional investors
kept the share of foreign private ownership in the UK the lowest in the G7 after the US and
Japan (Chart 4.7). However, foreign private ownership of UK debt rose significantly in the
early part of this century from around 13 per cent in 2004 to 25 per cent in 2022. With the
European Central Bank purchasing significant shares of German, French, and Italian
government debt in the meantime, this leaves the UK with the second-highest proportion of
its sovereign debt in foreign, non-official hands in the G7, behind France."
Page 110:
"As the stock of foreign holdings of UK debt has risen this century, so have questions about the
risks of increasing, relatively high, levels of these holdings. Foreign privately owned UK debt as a
proportion of total debt has almost doubled to 25 per cent since 2004 and is now well above the
advanced economy average of 18 per cent. "
Page 114:
"However, the rise in global inflation since the pandemic has delivered little net benefit to the
UK public finances relative to the inflation surprises of the past. This is partly because this
most recent inflation shock has been closer to a pure ‘terms of trade’ shock, in which the
rise in the prices of the things the UK imports and consumes (manufactured goods, energy,
and food) has far outstripped the rise in the prices of the things the UK produces and
exports (mainly services)."
"The gaps between the annual rates of increase in the GDP deflator and both RPI and CPI
were the largest on record (since 1949). Combined with the higher stock of ILGs (which
respond to RPI) and the short effective maturity on debt (which has meant interest rate rises
have fed through quickly), this has meant the fiscal benefit that the public finances have
derived from this latest round of inflation has been muted compared with the more
domestically driven inflation shocks of the past century. In fact, 2022 is one of only three
peacetime years since the early nineteenth century in which CPI inflation exceeded 9 per
cent and debt did not fall as a share of GDP."
Page 126:
"Overall, the increase in our net migration assumption from 129,000 to 245,000 per year has led to a 1.1 and 30 per
cent of GDP reduction in the primary deficit and net debt by 2072-73."
Page 127:
"By the end of our medium-term forecast period, we project debt
to reach about 100 per cent of GDP, after which it rises to over 300 per cent of GDP by
2072-73. If a government wanted instead to keep debt from rising above 100 per cent of
GDP over the long term, this would require a permanent increase in taxes and/or cut in
spending of 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2028-29. There is also an alternative, and arguably
more realistic, adjustment that estimates the staggered improvement in the primary balance
in each decade to reach this level of debt. We estimate this to be a 1.5 per cent of GDP
adjustment made to the primary balance every decade."
- tabascoboy
- Posts: 6475
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
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You forgot the "War on Woke!"_Os_ wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 10:19 am It's worth reading the OBR's July 2023 report (it's long but still worth skimming through). The (Tory supporting multi billionaire owned) media is taking the UK into an unreality, a lot of the stories that dominate the news are inane and irrelevant bullshit: Royal family/Farage's bank account/Schofield/Edwards. It makes reading about reality in some dry document worthwhile.
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