So, coronavirus...

[Saint]

Made nothing up. Biffer has.

Bimbo, you are an intelligent guy. Why do you persist in ignoring this notion of time lags between infection and outcome?

I don’t , I see how many positive cases are from hospitals and how many are community. That’s what’s I’ve posted on. There’s no lag on hospital and health care tests being published .

But there is a lag on infection to symptom, which is the primary cause for taking a test. Even if you just go by positive tests you're already 2 weeks behind infection

[Bimbowomxn]

Made nothing up. Biffer has.

Bimbo, you are an intelligent guy. Why do you persist in ignoring this notion of time lags between infection and outcome?

I don’t , I see how many positive cases are from hospitals and how many are community. That’s what’s I’ve posted on. There’s no lag on hospital and health care tests being published .

But there is a lag on infection to symptom, which is the primary cause for taking a test. Even if you just go by positive tests you're already 2 weeks behind infection

What ? I’m talking about tests being taken in a healthcare for COVID setting . They’re not rising , the community tests are .

[Saint]

Made nothing up. Biffer has.



I don’t , I see how many positive cases are from hospitals and how many are community. That’s what’s I’ve posted on. There’s no lag on hospital and health care tests being published .

But there is a lag on infection to symptom, which is the primary cause for taking a test. Even if you just go by positive tests you're already 2 weeks behind infection

What ? I’m talking about tests being taken in a healthcare for COVID setting . They’re not rising , the community tests are .

Spell out for me what you think that proves

[Sandstorm]

Jeez Saint, you so bored you want to go there?

[Saint]

Jeez Saint, you so bored you want to go there?

Mrs Saint is still working (community nursing back to being short staffed) and there's nowt on the box

[C69]

ffs Saint,step away

[.OverThere]

Why not look at it this way - what does the uptick in positive tests actually show?

We already know that it takes, in general, between 7 and 14 days for an infected individual to show symptoms - which in the vast majority of cases is still the prompt to take a test. So the significant increase in positive tests is reflective of infections having happened up to 2 weeks ago. We also know that even if you just go by the government reported stats, it will then take 28 days for that uptick in positive tests to potentially show up in the mortality figures; and due to the lag in reporting, it could be as much as another 2-3 weeks before they actually do get reported.

So, we have the first indicator right now of what was happening 2 weeks ago, and there's therefore been further movement likely upwards since then. That gives us two choices:

1 - We can sit on our arses and wait for the mortality figures to bite - but by that time we will really have to implement a much stricter lockdown and stay locked up for a couple of months to stop things getting nasty again

2 - We can collectively accept a marginal increase in restrictions now, which will hopefully get the infections under control but allow us to (more or less) keep going about our daily business.

It would be brilliant if we could have instant cause and effect for this virus, but we don;t - o we have to make changes to policy based on the small indicators that we do have.

You have left one step out of that analysis. The way you describe it is as if deaths happen randomly. There is some predictability. But whether it is measured is another question. It goes like this: Of the people on ICU from previous experience(statistically), how many people will die in the next 2 weeks? Similarly a number exists for those hospitalised not on ICU, and thirdly, a number for un-hospitalised.
The total of these is a the daily predicted no. of deaths.
The statistical model should be such that if on any day the predicted number is not reached, than the following days number should be reduced proportionly.

[Bimbowomxn]

ffs Saint,step away

Here’s the man who predicted a second spike in two weeks nearly a month ago. It’s listening to you thats dangerous.

[Bimbowomxn]

But there is a lag on infection to symptom, which is the primary cause for taking a test. Even if you just go by positive tests you're already 2 weeks behind infection

What ? I’m talking about tests being taken in a healthcare for COVID setting . They’re not rising , the community tests are .

Spell out for me what you think that proves

Every admission to hospital with suspects covid would have a test , these tests are listed separately from those in the community. These are not rising dramatically at all, the community ones are.

This isn’t difficult.

[Saint]

What ? I’m talking about tests being taken in a healthcare for COVID setting . They’re not rising , the community tests are .

Spell out for me what you think that proves

Every admission to hospital with suspects covid would have a test , these tests are listed separately from those in the community. These are not rising dramatically at all, the community ones are.

This isn’t difficult.

I figured that might be where you were going.

Do you know what happens if you're admitted to hospital with Covid symptoms within 14 days of a positive test in the community?

Because I do

[Bimbowomxn]

I’m guessing you’re saying they don’t retest. Ok cool. Let’s wait a week or two and see what’s what.

[Saint]

I’m guessing you’re saying they don’t retest. Ok cool. Let’s wait a week or two and see what’s what.

3 weeks from now would hit the government 28 days. But the reported deaths on that day won't reflect how many died then - it will reflect the deaths of the previous 2-3 months. We won't really know how many people died on any specific day in the next 2-3 weeks until sometime in December.

[Saint]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

[fishfoodie]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

Plagues, fires, floods; do you think the Evangelicals will stop & wonder if maybe they backed the wrong horse in 2016, & maybe the Sky Fairy is trying to let them know ?

[Sandstorm]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

Plagues, fires, floods; do you think the Evangelicals will stop & wonder if maybe they backed the wrong horse in 2016, & maybe the Sky Fairy is trying to let them know ?

Those disasters are bad, but they’re nothing compared to supporting a Democrat!

[Bimbowomxn]

I’m guessing you’re saying they don’t retest. Ok cool. Let’s wait a week or two and see what’s what.

3 weeks from now would hit the government 28 days. But the reported deaths on that day won't reflect how many died then - it will reflect the deaths of the previous 2-3 months. We won't really know how many people died on any specific day in the next 2-3 weeks until sometime in December.

We won’t know “exactly” how many people died, we will have a bloody good idea if it’s 10, 100, or,1,000 deaths a day.

We will also know how many are on ventilators.... That’s announced and not delayed.

[yermum]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

Plagues, fires, floods; do you think the Evangelicals will stop & wonder if maybe they backed the wrong horse in 2016, & maybe the Sky Fairy is trying to let them know ?

nah its the rapture or some shit.

[Bimbowomxn]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

It is, and much of a Europe including lockdown UK worse than the US .

[Saint]

I’m guessing you’re saying they don’t retest. Ok cool. Let’s wait a week or two and see what’s what.

3 weeks from now would hit the government 28 days. But the reported deaths on that day won't reflect how many died then - it will reflect the deaths of the previous 2-3 months. We won't really know how many people died on any specific day in the next 2-3 weeks until sometime in December.

We won’t know “exactly” how many people died, we will have a bloody good idea if it’s 10, 100, or,1,000 deaths a day.

We will also know how many are on ventilators.... That’s announced and not delayed.

We won't have a "bloody good idea". It's actually quite like that not a single reported deatg for that day will have actually occurred that day.

And ventilation is no longer a significant indicator as treatment practises have changes. The most extreme cases still end up on ventilation but we have nowhere near enough data to understand how that correlates to March/April/May

[Un Pilier]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

Plagues, fires, floods; do you think the Evangelicals will stop & wonder if maybe they backed the wrong horse in 2016, & maybe the Sky Fairy is trying to let them know ?

nah its the rapture or some shit.

Leave Debby Harry out of this

[Saint]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

It is, and much of a Europe including lockdown UK worse than the US .

UK, Spain, Belgium, and San Marino is much of Europe? Never mind that the US will overtake the UK and Spain in a matter of days. So Belgium and San Marino............

[Un Pilier]

3 weeks from now would hit the government 28 days. But the reported deaths on that day won't reflect how many died then - it will reflect the deaths of the previous 2-3 months. We won't really know how many people died on any specific day in the next 2-3 weeks until sometime in December.

We won’t know “exactly” how many people died, we will have a bloody good idea if it’s 10, 100, or,1,000 deaths a day.

We will also know how many are on ventilators.... That’s announced and not delayed.

We won't have a "bloody good idea". It's actually quite like that not a single reported deatg for that day will have actually occurred that day.

And ventilation is no longer a significant indicator as treatment practises have changes. The most extreme cases still end up on ventilation but we have nowhere near enough data to understand how that correlates to March/April/May

Noble effort, Bud, but you deserve a break. Enjoy the GP tomorrow

[Bimbowomxn]

In other news, the US is about to.hit 200,000 dead with no sign of things slowing down.

It is what it is

It is, and much of a Europe including lockdown UK worse than the US .

UK, Spain, Belgium, and San Marino is much of Europe? Never mind that the US will overtake the UK and Spain in a matter of days. So Belgium and San Marino............

Italy. Not just San Marino.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/

[Bimbowomxn]

We won’t know “exactly” how many people died, we will have a bloody good idea if it’s 10, 100, or,1,000 deaths a day.

We will also know how many are on ventilators.... That’s announced and not delayed.

We won't have a "bloody good idea". It's actually quite like that not a single reported deatg for that day will have actually occurred that day.

And ventilation is no longer a significant indicator as treatment practises have changes. The most extreme cases still end up on ventilation but we have nowhere near enough data to understand how that correlates to March/April/May

Noble effort, Bud, but you deserve a break. Enjoy the GP tomorrow

He’s certainly determined to talk the second wave up regardless with no useful statistics if it doesn’t happen until December.


I’ll catch up in December and all he’ll do is say the rule of 6 worked.

It’s nonsense.

[Saint]

It is, and much of a Europe including lockdown UK worse than the US .

UK, Spain, Belgium, and San Marino is much of Europe? Never mind that the US will overtake the UK and Spain in a matter of days. So Belgium and San Marino............

Italy. Not just San Marino.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/

Fuck me., you're clutching now. Even if you take that vs Worldometer, 1 that's still not much of Europe, 2 Italy was ground zero for Europe, and 3 The US will.overtake Italy in a day or so even before it catches the UK and Spain - and it's still going at 1,000+ per day

[Saint]

We won't have a "bloody good idea". It's actually quite like that not a single reported deatg for that day will have actually occurred that day.

And ventilation is no longer a significant indicator as treatment practises have changes. The most extreme cases still end up on ventilation but we have nowhere near enough data to understand how that correlates to March/April/May

Noble effort, Bud, but you deserve a break. Enjoy the GP tomorrow

He’s certainly determined to talk the second wave up regardless with no useful statistics if it doesn’t happen until December.


I’ll catch up in December and all he’ll do is say the rule of 6 worked.

It’s nonsense.

I'm praying that there isn't a second wave you fuckwit. I also think that taking reasonable precautions is a sensible idea

Ultimately there is zero chance that we will ever be able to say if what we, or any other country did worked, or didn't work. Because this isn't theory. We don't get to test multiple hypothesis. The only possible advantage we have i the UK is that we are behind the curve of some other countries - so we have some limited info on which to base our decisions, which is what we're doing

[Sandstorm]

Walk, nay run away Saint.

[Raggs]

Most of what I've seen here is just the "poster is on ignore" message, and it's just one person. So maybe I've missed this, but it's looking like there's more and more evidence growing that covid can produce long term neurological effects. What fun!

[Tichtheid]

Most of what I've seen here is just the "poster is on ignore" message, and it's just one person. So maybe I've missed this, but it's looking like there's more and more evidence growing that covid can produce long term neurological effects. What fun!

Long-term heart damage too, apparently.

I know folk who have been on the coal face of this, Covid is really not something that should be underestimated or "poo-pooed".

[Monkey Magic]

Most of what I've seen here is just the "poster is on ignore" message, and it's just one person. So maybe I've missed this, but it's looking like there's more and more evidence growing that covid can produce long term neurological effects. What fun!

'Poster is on ignore' is the only way to now read the thread and find it interesting

[Hong Kong]

[Biffer]

Most of what I've seen here is just the "poster is on ignore" message, and it's just one person. So maybe I've missed this, but it's looking like there's more and more evidence growing that covid can produce long term neurological effects. What fun!

'Poster is on ignore' is the only way to now read the thread and find it interesting

It's the only way to make it tolerable.

[Bimbowomxn]

Tell you what saint , we can come back in 3 weeks not 2 and see how the second spike Is running, or whether the young infections have produced a small problem.


Btw I’ve not denied covid or poo pooed it as is claimed , it’s a nasty virus, but it’s still a virus which a massive % of the population aren’t affected by in a serious way.


Emergency powers were granted “to protect the NHS” we are now 180 days into that.

By all means nod away at the new normal but making excuse after excuse to be scared and closed is just as nasty as deliberately spreading the disease.

I note here a lot of the posters predicting and “I told you so”:were the ones stating that the beach visits and pubs opening was madness , nothing will stop the fear.

[Northern Lights]

This won’t go down well with the bimbobaiters on here but what the hell

No ‘rule of six’, please, we’re British. We can make our own decisions
Jonathan Sumption
Sunday September 13 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
The prime minister has declared that he will do “whatever is necessary” to stop the spread of the coronavirus. One of the things that is necessary, apparently, is to stop us enjoying the company of our friends and family in numbers above six. There are at least three fallacies behind these bossy declarations. One is that the spread of an endemic virus is amenable to government control. The second is that legal coercion is a good way of doing it. The third is that stopping infections is all that matters, so that one does not have to count the human cost.

If one thing has become clear over the past six months, it is that aggressive measures of social distancing make little difference in the long run. They buy time, but reduce deaths only if they last indefinitely. Even buying time comes at a heavy price in depression, mental illness and misery. Ministers were warned about this by their scientific advisers in February and again in March. But we have a government that lurches from pillar to post, surprised by every development, even those that it was warned in the clearest terms to expect.

Every day that passes bears out the warning. Spain took the most extreme and brutally enforced measures in Europe. Sweden had the mildest measures: no lockdown or school closures and only moderate measures of social distancing. Yet Spain now has the worst second spike on the Continent and Sweden none at all.

There are many variables that affect the long-term progress of the disease, including the population’s state of health and age balance. But one thing that does not seem to affect it is government policy.

The reason seems tolerably clear. People can spread Covid-19 before their symptoms appear — and even if they have no symptoms. So isolating known cases is always too late. Whatever distancing measures you take, short of shutting everyone indefinitely in a box and feeding them through a tube, the virus will still spread, but more slowly.


The only way of eliminating Covid-19 is to achieve widespread immunity. That requires either an effective vaccine or a build-up of resistance through exposure to the disease. A safe and effective vaccine is a fast route to collective immunity, but we have no idea how long it will take to get one. Without it, we are condemned to take the slow route through exposure to the disease. The more time we buy with our distancing measures, the longer that will take. Christmas? Easter? One year? Two or three? For how long can we suspend human civilisation?

Collective (or “herd”) immunity is routinely condemned as a heartless policy. But that is just a comfortable evasion. Collective immunity is not a policy. It is not something governments can choose to adopt or discard. It is simply a description of how viral epidemics burn out. You do not need to be an epidemiologist to understand this. You just need to read the material that the epidemiologists have provided to governments and apply a reasonable measure of logic, judgment and scepticism.

SPONSORED
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
Of all the ways of buying time, legal coercion is the most inefficient. Legal coercion is indiscriminate, whereas this virus discriminates. It attacks the old and clinically vulnerable. Across Europe and the UK, the upsurge of infections is heavily concentrated among healthy people under 50.

The increasingly absurd health secretary Matt Hancock gets cross about this being pointed out. But, with a handful of exceptions, the infected young will experience only mild symptoms or none. What matters is not infections but hospital admissions and deaths, which have increased relatively little, both here and in other European countries. This suggests that, while the young and healthy are getting on with their lives, the vulnerable are sheltering themselves. It is happening spontaneously.

What is more, it is exactly what ought to be happening. People are making their own judgments, guided by their own vulnerabilities and their own tolerance of risk. The result is a far more discriminating approach than the government’s regulatory blunderbuss. Left to themselves, people can manage this virus better than Boris Johnson and Hancock because they can fine-tune their precautions to their own situation and that of the people around them. Taking the decisions out of their hands and imposing one-size-fits-all measures is despotic and ineffective.

It also cuts across the government’s own objectives. To justify their policies and command submission, ministers have to resort to fear, the classic tool of despotic regimes. They trumpet the small number of “long Covid” cases. They wail like Old Testament prophets about the terrible plague that is upon us. They utter ugly threats about “killing Granny”. If the public take this seriously, it will simply stymie the government’s attempts to get people back into schools and workplaces.

Will the public take it seriously? The ban on socialising in groups of more than six is unenforceable except in a Stasi-style surveillance state with a poisonous network of informers. It is incoherent when we mix with people anyway in schools, pubs, shops, public transport, workplaces and as many sixsomes as we like. Unless people have some respect for the process by which these decisions are made, they will not comply, however many snarling threats emerge from No 10.

Why should they? No one can respect laws made with no achievable objective or coherent plan. There is a limit to what people can be expected to put up with from a government that thinks hyperactivity is a substitute for thought, that seems incapable of matching the measures to the problem and has nothing but crocodile tears for the collateral damage to people’s lives.

Lord Sumption is a former Supreme Court judge

[Raggs]

Ffs.

Spain entered harsh lock down after they were already fucked. Hardly a fair comparison. Sweden compared to Denmark is. Care to compare?

As for herd immunity, has Sweden returned to completely normal life? Does Sweden have herd immunity? No. In fact as it went on and they saw how bad they were doing they increased restrictions.

Herd immunity is the long term plan. But it's become apparent that doing it the natural way is a bad idea. Especially since we can only see deaths and not the long term fucked.

[JM2K6]

NL loves himself some Times opinion pieces doesn't he

[MungoMan]

This won’t go down well with the bimbobaiters on here but what the hell

No ‘rule of six’, please, we’re British. We can make our own decisions
Jonathan Sumption
Sunday September 13 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
The prime minister has declared that he will do “whatever is necessary” to stop the spread of the coronavirus. One of the things that is necessary, apparently, is to stop us enjoying the company of our friends and family in numbers above six. There are at least three fallacies behind these bossy declarations. One is that the spread of an endemic virus is amenable to government control. The second is that legal coercion is a good way of doing it. The third is that stopping infections is all that matters, so that one does not have to count the human cost.

If one thing has become clear over the past six months, it is that aggressive measures of social distancing make little difference in the long run. They buy time, but reduce deaths only if they last indefinitely. Even buying time comes at a heavy price in depression, mental illness and misery. Ministers were warned about this by their scientific advisers in February and again in March. But we have a government that lurches from pillar to post, surprised by every development, even those that it was warned in the clearest terms to expect.

Every day that passes bears out the warning. Spain took the most extreme and brutally enforced measures in Europe. Sweden had the mildest measures: no lockdown or school closures and only moderate measures of social distancing. Yet Spain now has the worst second spike on the Continent and Sweden none at all.

There are many variables that affect the long-term progress of the disease, including the population’s state of health and age balance. But one thing that does not seem to affect it is government policy.

The reason seems tolerably clear. People can spread Covid-19 before their symptoms appear — and even if they have no symptoms. So isolating known cases is always too late. Whatever distancing measures you take, short of shutting everyone indefinitely in a box and feeding them through a tube, the virus will still spread, but more slowly.


The only way of eliminating Covid-19 is to achieve widespread immunity. That requires either an effective vaccine or a build-up of resistance through exposure to the disease. A safe and effective vaccine is a fast route to collective immunity, but we have no idea how long it will take to get one. Without it, we are condemned to take the slow route through exposure to the disease. The more time we buy with our distancing measures, the longer that will take. Christmas? Easter? One year? Two or three? For how long can we suspend human civilisation?

Collective (or “herd”) immunity is routinely condemned as a heartless policy. But that is just a comfortable evasion. Collective immunity is not a policy. It is not something governments can choose to adopt or discard. It is simply a description of how viral epidemics burn out. You do not need to be an epidemiologist to understand this. You just need to read the material that the epidemiologists have provided to governments and apply a reasonable measure of logic, judgment and scepticism.

SPONSORED
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
Of all the ways of buying time, legal coercion is the most inefficient. Legal coercion is indiscriminate, whereas this virus discriminates. It attacks the old and clinically vulnerable. Across Europe and the UK, the upsurge of infections is heavily concentrated among healthy people under 50.

The increasingly absurd health secretary Matt Hancock gets cross about this being pointed out. But, with a handful of exceptions, the infected young will experience only mild symptoms or none. What matters is not infections but hospital admissions and deaths, which have increased relatively little, both here and in other European countries. This suggests that, while the young and healthy are getting on with their lives, the vulnerable are sheltering themselves. It is happening spontaneously.

What is more, it is exactly what ought to be happening. People are making their own judgments, guided by their own vulnerabilities and their own tolerance of risk. The result is a far more discriminating approach than the government’s regulatory blunderbuss. Left to themselves, people can manage this virus better than Boris Johnson and Hancock because they can fine-tune their precautions to their own situation and that of the people around them. Taking the decisions out of their hands and imposing one-size-fits-all measures is despotic and ineffective.

It also cuts across the government’s own objectives. To justify their policies and command submission, ministers have to resort to fear, the classic tool of despotic regimes. They trumpet the small number of “long Covid” cases. They wail like Old Testament prophets about the terrible plague that is upon us. They utter ugly threats about “killing Granny”. If the public take this seriously, it will simply stymie the government’s attempts to get people back into schools and workplaces.

Will the public take it seriously? The ban on socialising in groups of more than six is unenforceable except in a Stasi-style surveillance state with a poisonous network of informers. It is incoherent when we mix with people anyway in schools, pubs, shops, public transport, workplaces and as many sixsomes as we like. Unless people have some respect for the process by which these decisions are made, they will not comply, however many snarling threats emerge from No 10.

Why should they? No one can respect laws made with no achievable objective or coherent plan. There is a limit to what people can be expected to put up with from a government that thinks hyperactivity is a substitute for thought, that seems incapable of matching the measures to the problem and has nothing but crocodile tears for the collateral damage to people’s lives.

Lord Sumption is a former Supreme Court judge

Coincidence! I knew the author's brother, Conspicuous Con.

[mat the expat]

This won’t go down well with the bimbobaiters on here but what the hell

Spoiler

Show

No ‘rule of six’, please, we’re British. We can make our own decisions
Jonathan Sumption
Sunday September 13 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
The prime minister has declared that he will do “whatever is necessary” to stop the spread of the coronavirus. One of the things that is necessary, apparently, is to stop us enjoying the company of our friends and family in numbers above six. There are at least three fallacies behind these bossy declarations. One is that the spread of an endemic virus is amenable to government control. The second is that legal coercion is a good way of doing it. The third is that stopping infections is all that matters, so that one does not have to count the human cost.

If one thing has become clear over the past six months, it is that aggressive measures of social distancing make little difference in the long run. They buy time, but reduce deaths only if they last indefinitely. Even buying time comes at a heavy price in depression, mental illness and misery. Ministers were warned about this by their scientific advisers in February and again in March. But we have a government that lurches from pillar to post, surprised by every development, even those that it was warned in the clearest terms to expect.

Every day that passes bears out the warning. Spain took the most extreme and brutally enforced measures in Europe. Sweden had the mildest measures: no lockdown or school closures and only moderate measures of social distancing. Yet Spain now has the worst second spike on the Continent and Sweden none at all.

There are many variables that affect the long-term progress of the disease, including the population’s state of health and age balance. But one thing that does not seem to affect it is government policy.

The reason seems tolerably clear. People can spread Covid-19 before their symptoms appear — and even if they have no symptoms. So isolating known cases is always too late. Whatever distancing measures you take, short of shutting everyone indefinitely in a box and feeding them through a tube, the virus will still spread, but more slowly.


The only way of eliminating Covid-19 is to achieve widespread immunity. That requires either an effective vaccine or a build-up of resistance through exposure to the disease. A safe and effective vaccine is a fast route to collective immunity, but we have no idea how long it will take to get one. Without it, we are condemned to take the slow route through exposure to the disease. The more time we buy with our distancing measures, the longer that will take. Christmas? Easter? One year? Two or three? For how long can we suspend human civilisation?

Collective (or “herd”) immunity is routinely condemned as a heartless policy. But that is just a comfortable evasion. Collective immunity is not a policy. It is not something governments can choose to adopt or discard. It is simply a description of how viral epidemics burn out. You do not need to be an epidemiologist to understand this. You just need to read the material that the epidemiologists have provided to governments and apply a reasonable measure of logic, judgment and scepticism.

SPONSORED
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
Sports superstar reveals the driving force behind her career
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
The 10-piece capsule collection you need to elevate your style
Of all the ways of buying time, legal coercion is the most inefficient. Legal coercion is indiscriminate, whereas this virus discriminates. It attacks the old and clinically vulnerable. Across Europe and the UK, the upsurge of infections is heavily concentrated among healthy people under 50.

The increasingly absurd health secretary Matt Hancock gets cross about this being pointed out. But, with a handful of exceptions, the infected young will experience only mild symptoms or none. What matters is not infections but hospital admissions and deaths, which have increased relatively little, both here and in other European countries. This suggests that, while the young and healthy are getting on with their lives, the vulnerable are sheltering themselves. It is happening spontaneously.

What is more, it is exactly what ought to be happening. People are making their own judgments, guided by their own vulnerabilities and their own tolerance of risk. The result is a far more discriminating approach than the government’s regulatory blunderbuss. Left to themselves, people can manage this virus better than Boris Johnson and Hancock because they can fine-tune their precautions to their own situation and that of the people around them. Taking the decisions out of their hands and imposing one-size-fits-all measures is despotic and ineffective.

It also cuts across the government’s own objectives. To justify their policies and command submission, ministers have to resort to fear, the classic tool of despotic regimes. They trumpet the small number of “long Covid” cases. They wail like Old Testament prophets about the terrible plague that is upon us. They utter ugly threats about “killing Granny”. If the public take this seriously, it will simply stymie the government’s attempts to get people back into schools and workplaces.

Will the public take it seriously? The ban on socialising in groups of more than six is unenforceable except in a Stasi-style surveillance state with a poisonous network of informers. It is incoherent when we mix with people anyway in schools, pubs, shops, public transport, workplaces and as many sixsomes as we like. Unless people have some respect for the process by which these decisions are made, they will not comply, however many snarling threats emerge from No 10.

Why should they? No one can respect laws made with no achievable objective or coherent plan. There is a limit to what people can be expected to put up with from a government that thinks hyperactivity is a substitute for thought, that seems incapable of matching the measures to the problem and has nothing but crocodile tears for the collateral damage to people’s lives.

Lord Sumption is a former Supreme Court judge

Coincidence! I knew the author's brother, Conspicuous Con.
[/quote]

A Lord - is he the Lord of Medicine?

[Sandstorm]

So Indonesia is offering a Rapid Covid19 test for $35 to anyone who wants one. A negative result today also means you're guaranteed Covid-free for the next 2 weeks!

[Insane_Homer]

Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has reported more than 66 outbreaks of coronavirus at 50 of its outlets.

A Wetherspoons spokesperson said of the 50 pubs affected, 40 have reported one worker testing positive for the coronavirus and six pubs have disclosed two.
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/14/wethersp ... to=cbshare