RWC QF4 France vs Springboks on 15/10 @ 21h00

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OomStruisbaai
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boere wors wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:30 am
OomStruisbaai wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:17 am
boere wors wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:13 am
Time for experimenting should be over by now
The experiments have been done Boet. Against France and Ireland, you cant afford to give them possession with high kick and charge and box kicks. You need to run at them, test their defense, keep possession.
I agree with that, yet the insurance on the bench makes me wonder a bit if they trust that approach.
If we get a lead the bench can settle it.
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Blake
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assfly wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:12 am Interesting team.

After all that noise about 6-2, 7-1, 8-0, we go for a boring 5-3 split on the bench :lol:

Cobus ahead of Faf is a huge call. I can see why, I think CR has played out of his skin whenever given the chance and may be a better match to try and nullify the threat from Anton "not the face" du Pont.

Duane ahead of Jasper too. I think he's picked as our one and only jackle in the starting XV.

I would have been tempted to start Moody on the wing.
It was definitely the biggest surprise for me as well. I was expecting a Faf/Pollard starting pair with Reinach/Libbok on the bench.

I think it tells us two possible things:
1. We (rightfully) respect the French counter attack so we will be kicking as little as possible to starve them of open field running opportunities.
2. There will be a lot of short, heavy carries and snipes around the rucks. Hard running at Du Pont to get him to make tackles and lots of snipes and blindside plays. Reinach is a better sniper than Faf and if he does break the line, you want a Kolbe or Arendse on his shoulder in support.

If it doesn't work and we can't build a decent lead in the first half, then we can change tactics in the second, bring Faf and Polly on and try to grind out a comeback.

We'll have to wait and see how it unfolds. France can be clinical and ruthless use the energy from their home crowd to get them through, or the weight of the expectaitons and all the emotions can just break them in the first quarter. Will be interesting to see what happens and who handles the pressure better.

Either way, Sunday evening can't come quick enough.
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This could potentially be a Gaffie moment for Libbok.
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To me it looks like RasNaber went 5/3, because they think they have enough in the forwards after the match last year against France, where the Boks played a lot of the match without Du Toit but still did well. This is still a risk, because maybe they've read too much into that match and a 6/2 would be safer (the people who said 6/2 or 7/1 was more of a risk than 5/3, were always wrong, it depends on squad resources and context). There were some Twitter accounts that always seem to have some inside knowledge of the team who were speculating about a 5/3.

Looks like they've decided to have Faf/Pollard/Le Roux on the bench in case the starting selection is a fuck up. Reinach starting is something no one called. Not many strong kicking options in that starting backline, indicates they're going to hold the ball, but maybe not Reinach could easily be there to kick bombs all match. Reinach is probably the best kicking 9 in the side.
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average joe wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:06 am This could potentially be a Gaffie moment for Libbok.
No way man
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Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:47 am 1. We (rightfully) respect the French counter attack so we will be kicking as little as possible to starve them of open field running opportunities.
In the first minute of this press conference Nienaber mentions Reinach specifically in regards to France's kicking options. France kick a lot, and whilst Reinach wasn't anywhere close in terms of kicking from scrumhalf as others that have played during his time (Ruan, Du Preez, Vermaak) which is why he isn't rated as a kicking 9 in SA, he's a better kicker than the other scrumhalves probably. Important thing about countering a kicking game is the defencive positioning to catch the ball, no use being a good kicker if the ball never comes to you, I would put Faf and Williams nowhere in that skill, and Reinach better than Hendrikse.

French coaches will know what Reinach's tools are, there's a mountain of video on him from different competitions. But on our ball there's a big difference between Reinach told to pass/run, and Reinach told to kick bombs. If I had to guess they're going for Reinach shallow bombs in the space behind the ruck on our ball, and they're going to use Reinach as a sweeper at the back on defence/catch and return kick option (they clearly rate his skills there, as they've played him on the wing). Wouldn't be surprised if he plays the full 80 and Arendse goes off when Faf comes on.

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OomStruisbaai
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Why would he expect to kick bombs, then they could select Pollard in 10. They will run it.
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OomStruisbaai wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:32 am Why would he expect to kick bombs, then they could select Pollard in 10. They will run it.
On defence Reinach is definitely there to help counter France's kicking.

We're guessing about what it means on attack, I remember Sharks matches when Reinach started out, he was kicking bombs almost every time he touched the ball. Thinking "Reinach starts the Boks will run it" isn't certain, it could also mean the opposite. Bombs into the space behind the ruck work better from 9 than 10, because the blindside wing can chase a kick from 9 better. If you wanted to test Dupont this is one way to do it, he'll be one of the players under the ball defending the kick.
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:30 am
Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:47 am 1. We (rightfully) respect the French counter attack so we will be kicking as little as possible to starve them of open field running opportunities.
In the first minute of this press conference Nienaber mentions Reinach specifically in regards to France's kicking options. France kick a lot, and whilst Reinach wasn't anywhere close in terms of kicking from scrumhalf as others that have played during his time (Ruan, Du Preez, Vermaak) which is why he isn't rated as a kicking 9 in SA, he's a better kicker than the other scrumhalves probably. Important thing about countering a kicking game is the defencive positioning to catch the ball, no use being a good kicker if the ball never comes to you, I would put Faf and Williams nowhere in that skill, and Reinach better than Hendrikse.

French coaches will know what Reinach's tools are, there's a mountain of video on him from different competitions. But on our ball there's a big difference between Reinach told to pass/run, and Reinach told to kick bombs. If I had to guess they're going for Reinach shallow bombs in the space behind the ruck on our ball, and they're going to use Reinach as a sweeper at the back on defence/catch and return kick option (they clearly rate his skills there, as they've played him on the wing). Wouldn't be surprised if he plays the full 80 and Arendse goes off when Faf comes on.
Reinach kicking game is very underrated I agree. In the Rassie-Nienaber era he's mostly been used (underused?!) in minnow or experimental games where we kicked a lot less than when Faf or Herchel Jantjies were usually selected. So he ran and sniped a lot more and I think that's why people underrate his box kicking which is solid.

I don't mind kicking at France, but then our kicks need to be accurate and our kick-chase has to be solid. If not, they will run us ragged and we will lose. If the box kicks are short it can work, but I think if you can starve this French team of ball and just blugeon them up front for 80 mins with short, hard carries around the rucks and then a surprise blindside snipe or pinpoint wide pass to run at their edges you might be able to break them. It all depends on phases and momentum and protecting the ball though, so the rucks will be critical. Luckily Barnes is one of the better refs at policing that area.
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laurent
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Les bleus.

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Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:44 am
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:30 am
Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:47 am 1. We (rightfully) respect the French counter attack so we will be kicking as little as possible to starve them of open field running opportunities.
In the first minute of this press conference Nienaber mentions Reinach specifically in regards to France's kicking options. France kick a lot, and whilst Reinach wasn't anywhere close in terms of kicking from scrumhalf as others that have played during his time (Ruan, Du Preez, Vermaak) which is why he isn't rated as a kicking 9 in SA, he's a better kicker than the other scrumhalves probably. Important thing about countering a kicking game is the defencive positioning to catch the ball, no use being a good kicker if the ball never comes to you, I would put Faf and Williams nowhere in that skill, and Reinach better than Hendrikse.

French coaches will know what Reinach's tools are, there's a mountain of video on him from different competitions. But on our ball there's a big difference between Reinach told to pass/run, and Reinach told to kick bombs. If I had to guess they're going for Reinach shallow bombs in the space behind the ruck on our ball, and they're going to use Reinach as a sweeper at the back on defence/catch and return kick option (they clearly rate his skills there, as they've played him on the wing). Wouldn't be surprised if he plays the full 80 and Arendse goes off when Faf comes on.
Reinach kicking game is very underrated I agree. In the Rassie-Nienaber era he's mostly been used (underused?!) in minnow or experimental games where we kicked a lot less than when Faf or Herchel Jantjies were usually selected. So he ran and sniped a lot more and I think that's why people underrate his box kicking which is solid.

I don't mind kicking at France, but then our kicks need to be accurate and our kick-chase has to be solid. If not, they will run us ragged and we will lose. If the box kicks are short it can work, but I think if you can starve this French team of ball and just blugeon them up front for 80 mins with short, hard carries around the rucks and then a surprise blindside snipe or pinpoint wide pass to run at their edges you might be able to break them. It all depends on phases and momentum and protecting the ball though, so the rucks will be critical. Luckily Barnes is one of the better refs at policing that area.
Barnes is not the ref. :think:

I wouldn't want to be feeding the French outside backs possession and would go with something you're describing. Just pointing out it's not that clear what their plan is with the backline, it could be something unexpected.
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:52 am Barnes is not the ref. :think:

I wouldn't want to be feeding the French outside backs possession and would go with something you're describing. Just pointing out it's not that clear what their plan is with the backline, it could be something unexpected.
Not? Dammit. I thought I saw that somewhere and was quite happy.

How is keeping it tight and sniping when it’s on or long skip passes feeding the French outside backs the ball? Because that’s what I’m hoping we do.

If we do use Reinach’s box kick it better be pinpoint and we better chase hard or we will get shredded.
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Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:02 am
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:52 am Barnes is not the ref. :think:

I wouldn't want to be feeding the French outside backs possession and would go with something you're describing. Just pointing out it's not that clear what their plan is with the backline, it could be something unexpected.
Not? Dammit. I thought I saw that somewhere and was quite happy.
France v South Africa
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)


Barnes has NZ vs Ireland
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Sandstorm wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:15 am
Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:02 am
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:52 am Barnes is not the ref. :think:

I wouldn't want to be feeding the French outside backs possession and would go with something you're describing. Just pointing out it's not that clear what their plan is with the backline, it could be something unexpected.
Not? Dammit. I thought I saw that somewhere and was quite happy.
France v South Africa
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)


Barnes has NZ vs Ireland
Thanks.
Shit. Really thought we got Barnes.

Not a fan of O'Keeffe at the breakdown at all. He lets too much go, so it's going to be difficult to build 3-4 phases and momentum.
Hopefully we can adapt better than we did against the Irish.

Oh well.
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:43 am
OomStruisbaai wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:32 am Why would he expect to kick bombs, then they could select Pollard in 10. They will run it.
On defence Reinach is definitely there to help counter France's kicking.

We're guessing about what it means on attack, I remember Sharks matches when Reinach started out, he was kicking bombs almost every time he touched the ball. Thinking "Reinach starts the Boks will run it" isn't certain, it could also mean the opposite. Bombs into the space behind the ruck work better from 9 than 10, because the blindside wing can chase a kick from 9 better. If you wanted to test Dupont this is one way to do it, he'll be one of the players under the ball defending the kick.
Forget about Dupont. Kicking to Ramos is not a good idea. Feed Libbok to ignite the backs, that look like the plan.
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We are going home after Sunday.
That team has lost twice already.
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laurent
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Just watched the announcement

There is something about Galthier when he talks about the Springbok selection....



around the 8th minute

the smile is not innocent
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Bloutoria
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So will a good old hand-off stiil be allowed?

[https://www.alamy.com/jordan-joseph-r92 ... 81807.html]
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Bloutoria wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:21 pm So will a good old hand-off stiil be allowed?

[https://www.alamy.com/jordan-joseph-r92 ... 81807.html]
I was thinking the same thing! I'm sure Reinach will be penalised if he even looks at the Broken French Hero.
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Sards wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:30 pm We are going home after Sunday.
That team has lost twice already.
Hi there Mr Positive
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Chilli wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:45 pm
Sards wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:30 pm We are going home after Sunday.
That team has lost twice already.
Hi there Mr Positive
I think he means NZ
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Sandstorm wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:05 pm
Chilli wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:45 pm
Sards wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:30 pm We are going home after Sunday.
That team has lost twice already.
Hi there Mr Positive
I think he means NZ
He has been going on about how he misses losing to New Zealand and the Crusaders.
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Blake wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:02 am
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:52 am Barnes is not the ref. :think:

I wouldn't want to be feeding the French outside backs possession and would go with something you're describing. Just pointing out it's not that clear what their plan is with the backline, it could be something unexpected.
Not? Dammit. I thought I saw that somewhere and was quite happy.

How is keeping it tight and sniping when it’s on or long skip passes feeding the French outside backs the ball? Because that’s what I’m hoping we do.

If we do use Reinach’s box kick it better be pinpoint and we better chase hard or we will get shredded.
I made the post that BO'K (Ben O’Keeffe), isn't the worst pick for us. Barnes would've been better for us, but other than him who is there?

I agree with you on the strategy, maybe should've made my English clearer (I was saying I wouldn't be kicking on them and would be carrying close in). France do kick a lot and defend though, if the strategy is only to hold the ball then France are going to wait for the knock ons and errors, that's what they would want the Boks to do (to play like the current AB team with weak kicking).

Rasnaber always has a monkey up the sleeve, now we'll see. My suspicion is Reinach is there for his kicking.
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laurent wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:49 am Les bleus.

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My one sentence summary is, the higher the numbers go the more scary the players get.
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laurent wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 1:22 pm Just watched the announcement

There is something about Galthier when he talks about the Springbok selection....



around the 8th minute

the smile is not innocent
This is that press conference with an English voice over (I'm probably the best French speaking Saffa here, I can't follow it with baby level French).

The 5/3 is probably mostly about wanting to close out the game with Faf/Pollard/Le Roux. I reckon Rasnaber doesn't fully trust some of the starters to finish a RWC knockout game, especially if it's close.

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_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 5:36 pm
The 5/3 is probably mostly about wanting to close out the game with Faf/Pollard/Le Roux. I reckon Rasnaber doesn't fully trust some of the starters to finish a RWC knockout game, especially if it's close.
My feeling also, and I’m happy with that. Start with an audacious gamble and if it doesn’t pay off, revert to the best players to execute plan B and claw it back.
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That face looks still very swolen. Hope he does not regret this. Hope Nienaber discusses it with Ben. We have to play full contact.
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Rassie
He continued: “I can tell you without a doubt in, in the 33-man squad, there’s not a bang gat . I can’t use a better word.”
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 5:07 pm
laurent wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:49 am Les bleus.

Image
My one sentence summary is, the higher the numbers go the more scary the players get.
That lock pairing is mistake to start against SA. Should have gone with Tao at 5 and brought Flament in later.
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Dupont's return is great news for France, and the tournament. I hope he has a blinder.
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Chilli wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:58 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:05 pm
Chilli wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:45 pm

Hi there Mr Positive
I think he means NZ
He has been going on about how he misses losing to New Zealand and the Crusaders.
We always hope something special happens and we win. But after seeing the team I have accepted the possibility that we are finished at the RWC. History is not on our side.
The forwards are fine. The backline not so much
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Gumboot wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:00 pm Dupont's return is great news for France, and the tournament. I hope he has a blinder.
Harsh bro. He was almost blinded last time.
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Sandstorm wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:59 pm
Gumboot wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:00 pm Dupont's return is great news for France, and the tournament. I hope he has a blinder.
Harsh bro. He was almost blinded last time.
He could've d'eyed. :roll:
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Sards wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 8:25 pm
Chilli wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:58 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:05 pm

I think he means NZ
He has been going on about how he misses losing to New Zealand and the Crusaders.
We always hope something special happens and we win. But after seeing the team I have accepted the possibility that we are finished at the RWC. History is not on our side.
The forwards are fine. The backline not so much
You got Manie and Reinach.
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Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 7:10 pm
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 5:07 pm
laurent wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:49 am Les bleus.

Image
My one sentence summary is, the higher the numbers go the more scary the players get.
That lock pairing is mistake to start against SA. Should have gone with Tao at 5 and brought Flament in later.
Hello Eben Etzebeth. We need lineout domination.
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OomStruisbaai wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:42 am
Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 7:10 pm
_Os_ wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 5:07 pm
My one sentence summary is, the higher the numbers go the more scary the players get.
That lock pairing is mistake to start against SA. Should have gone with Tao at 5 and brought Flament in later.
Hello Eben Etzebeth. We need lineout domination.
100% my fear.
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Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:17 am
OomStruisbaai wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:42 am
Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 7:10 pm

That lock pairing is mistake to start against SA. Should have gone with Tao at 5 and brought Flament in later.
Hello Eben Etzebeth. We need lineout domination.
100% my fear.
Woki is "short" (1cm shorter than the closest of top 4 second row) Flament is very tall (1.96 and 2.03)
Then you have 3 other options with Olivon at 1.99 Jelonch 1.93 and even Aldritt as been jumping at 1.90

Eben is 2.03 and Mostert 1.98

The height at that level is very much on par ( woki is actually excellent at stealing the ball)
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laurent wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:08 pm
Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:17 am
OomStruisbaai wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 3:42 am

Hello Eben Etzebeth. We need lineout domination.
100% my fear.
Woki is "short" (1cm shorter than the closest of top 4 second row) Flament is very tall (1.96 and 2.03)
Then you have 3 other options with Olivon at 1.99 Jelonch 1.93 and even Aldritt as been jumping at 1.90

Eben is 2.03 and Mostert 1.98

The height at that level is very much on par ( woki is actually excellent at stealing the ball)
Nothing to do with height in my worry but the bulk you normally have at 5 to shore up your tighthead in the scrums. Cannot afford to lose the scrum battle to SA.
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