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sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 10:16 am
Thérèse Coffey said she “nearly died” due to the stress of being a government minister.

Speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk, the former environment secretary said she was admitted to hospital after “working [herself] into the ground”.

Coffey, 51, who had been widely tipped to be in line to be sacked by Rishi Sunak during his cabinet reshuffle, resigned from her role on Monday.

“Nearly five years ago I got so ill, I nearly, dare I say it, died,” she said. “I was in hospital for a month with some of the stresses that happen with ministerial life.
Sure it wasn't anything to do with being an obese smoker who quite often seems to have a drink in her hand?

Besides that, it's a little difficult to credit the idea that the person who seemingly had zero grasp of her brief regardless of role was doing much work, let alone enough to be ground down.
She obviously decided that the stress of trying to do a little bit of work was too much her for, so has spent the last five years as a Minister in various departments doing absolutely fuck all.
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With the caution this is posted by a Mail on Sunday journo:


For those who don't know – the motion for an address on the King's Speech is a matter of confidence.

A defeat on the motion, or on an amendment to it (like this one), would be tantamount to a vote of no confidence in the government.
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salanya
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On the day when the Tory Rwanda policy is shown up to be ridiculous and unlawful, Labour MPs shoot themselves in the foot.

Neither Israel nor Hamas will change their plans based on whether the UK Labour party wants a ceasefire or a temporary pause. Neither will they care about Labour MPs principled resignations.
Over the hills and far away........
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salanya wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:53 pm On the day when the Tory Rwanda policy is shown up to be ridiculous and unlawful, Labour MPs shoot themselves in the foot.

Neither Israel nor Hamas will change their plans based on whether the UK Labour party wants a ceasefire or a temporary pause. Neither will they care about Labour MPs principled resignations.
Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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Tichtheid
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Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:20 pm
salanya wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:53 pm On the day when the Tory Rwanda policy is shown up to be ridiculous and unlawful, Labour MPs shoot themselves in the foot.

Neither Israel nor Hamas will change their plans based on whether the UK Labour party wants a ceasefire or a temporary pause. Neither will they care about Labour MPs principled resignations.
Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over


It's all about nailing one's colours to the mast now - for instance I've noticed a Venn diagram overlap of anti-vaxxers anti-lockdown Covid denier types with those who are most vocal in support of Israel's continued bombing in Gazza
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Tichtheid wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:59 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:20 pm
salanya wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:53 pm On the day when the Tory Rwanda policy is shown up to be ridiculous and unlawful, Labour MPs shoot themselves in the foot.

Neither Israel nor Hamas will change their plans based on whether the UK Labour party wants a ceasefire or a temporary pause. Neither will they care about Labour MPs principled resignations.
Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over


It's all about nailing one's colours to the mast now - for instance I've noticed a Venn diagram overlap of anti-vaxxers anti-lockdown Covid denier types with those who are most vocal in support of Israel's continued bombing in Gazza
Oh 100%, you can tell most people’s views on this conflict from their unconnected other political opinions.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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Tichtheid wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:59 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:20 pm
salanya wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:53 pm On the day when the Tory Rwanda policy is shown up to be ridiculous and unlawful, Labour MPs shoot themselves in the foot.

Neither Israel nor Hamas will change their plans based on whether the UK Labour party wants a ceasefire or a temporary pause. Neither will they care about Labour MPs principled resignations.
Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over


It's all about nailing one's colours to the mast now - for instance I've noticed a Venn diagram overlap of anti-vaxxers anti-lockdown Covid denier types with those who are most vocal in support of Israel's continued bombing in Gazza
Christian Evangelical wingnuts, innit !

the single most bizarre political group, & their relationship with Israel is the weirdest part, because they want Israel to exist, because they believe that it forms an important part of the whole "End of Days" shit, when the Jews will either convert, or get burned up with the rest of us unbelievers.

They're ISIS without the violence so far; but I don't rule out the violence coming in my lifetime.
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So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
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sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
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Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
A LOT of B, and a little bit of A.
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shaggy wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:36 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
A LOT of B, and a little bit of A.
To be fair to them, they have been pretty consistent on this. Although, they must have thought all their birthdays have come at once.
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sockwithaticket
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Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
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sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
SNP need to be careful here, they should not really do anything that would weaken Labours ability to kick this shower of shit out at the next Election. They should in my view focus on building a relationship with Labour, which will give them leverage in any future negotiations about another independance referendum.
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sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:40 am So Starmer's had 11 MPs quit or be sacked from the front bench after the failed ceasefire vote.

Naz Shah - "At some point there will be a ceasefire. Had we called for a ceasefire yesterday, 144 children might still be alive. A child dies every 10 minutes.”

I really don't understand this attitude that voting in parliament to say there should be a ceasefire means anything. Let's say it unanimously passed the house, what then? Israel goes "...ok?" shrugs and carries on exactly as it has been.

By all means make your opinion known, but the earnestness from some corners about the importance of this vote has been puzzling.
I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
I think you can put the Westminster skirmishes to one side, it's up here where the battles are being fought. 6 months ago, and for years before, it was saturated daily attacks on the Tories from Scottish government, SNP and on social media, Labour were barely mentioned. That has all changed with Labour looking like taking a lot of seats off the SNP and suddenly being broadly neck and neck in the polls. It's now all out attack on Labour with the Tories, who are going to do fuck all up here, coming a distant second.
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Slick
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ASMO wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:00 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am

I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
SNP need to be careful here, they should not really do anything that would weaken Labours ability to kick this shower of shit out at the next Election. They should in my view focus on building a relationship with Labour, which will give them leverage in any future negotiations about another independance referendum.
See above, that was an option a few months ago but they are seriously worried about how many seats they will lose now, particularly as the SG elections are also looking closer than any thought.
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ASMO wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:00 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am

I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
SNP need to be careful here, they should not really do anything that would weaken Labours ability to kick this shower of shit out at the next Election. They should in my view focus on building a relationship with Labour, which will give them leverage in any future negotiations about another independance referendum.
Labour have made it abundantly clear they'd rather work with the Tories than the SNP.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Slick wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:01 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am
Hal Jordan wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:14 am

I think it's a mix of

A). The SNP showing a bit of a moral compass to want to stop people murdering the shit out of each other (good luck with that in the Holy Land); and

B). Electioneering shit stirring to dent Labour's appeal in Scotland.
Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
I think you can put the Westminster skirmishes to one side, it's up here where the battles are being fought. 6 months ago, and for years before, it was saturated daily attacks on the Tories from Scottish government, SNP and on social media, Labour were barely mentioned. That has all changed with Labour looking like taking a lot of seats off the SNP and suddenly being broadly neck and neck in the polls. It's now all out attack on Labour with the Tories, who are going to do fuck all up here, coming a distant second.
*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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Tichtheid
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Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:16 pm
Slick wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:01 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:54 am

Flynn has been taking a lot of shots at Starmer/Labour lately at PMQ's, but this issue is probably more A and is ideologically consistent for many.

It's the piousness I don't get. 'This vote is important.', when it's anything but in terms of actually achieving anything. Maybe I'm just too jaded, but it seem like a lot for what essentially amounts to words that will be roundly ignored by the relevant nations.
I think you can put the Westminster skirmishes to one side, it's up here where the battles are being fought. 6 months ago, and for years before, it was saturated daily attacks on the Tories from Scottish government, SNP and on social media, Labour were barely mentioned. That has all changed with Labour looking like taking a lot of seats off the SNP and suddenly being broadly neck and neck in the polls. It's now all out attack on Labour with the Tories, who are going to do fuck all up here, coming a distant second.
*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?


It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
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My impression is that whilst there's a hardcore of independence whatever supporters, the SNP would be dependent to get 50% on people whose support for independence depends on circumstance, and the UK generally doing badly whilst being run by an incompetent & dislikable Tory government is pretty much the perfect circumstance to generate that support.

Any question of a referendum is also predicated on the SNP doing very well at elections, as that provides an a priori case for there being widespread support for independence.

As such I expect the SNP absolutely want to do as much damage to Labour as possible. Labour taking a decent number of seats from them at a GE and forming an adequate government that isn;t stuffed full of Old Etonians, Wykheamists etc is a disaster for them.

In this particular case the SNP leader has family in Gaza, so tactics and straightforward passion coincide.
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Tichtheid
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Mahoney wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:36 pm My impression is that whilst there's a hardcore of independence whatever supporters, the SNP would be dependent to get 50% on people whose support for independence depends on circumstance, and the UK generally doing badly whilst being run by an incompetent & dislikable Tory government is pretty much the perfect circumstance to generate that support.

Any question of a referendum is also predicated on the SNP doing very well at elections, as that provides an a priori case for there being widespread support for independence.

As such I expect the SNP absolutely want to do as much damage to Labour as possible. Labour taking a decent number of seats from them at a GE and forming an adequate government that isn;t stuffed full of Old Etonians, Wykheamists etc is a disaster for them.

In this particular case the SNP leader has family in Gaza, so tactics and straightforward passion coincide.


Labour fundamentally oppose the whole raison d'être of the SNP, so yeah, they will absolutely want to do as much damage as possible to any party which holds that position.
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Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:33 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:16 pm
Slick wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:01 am

I think you can put the Westminster skirmishes to one side, it's up here where the battles are being fought. 6 months ago, and for years before, it was saturated daily attacks on the Tories from Scottish government, SNP and on social media, Labour were barely mentioned. That has all changed with Labour looking like taking a lot of seats off the SNP and suddenly being broadly neck and neck in the polls. It's now all out attack on Labour with the Tories, who are going to do fuck all up here, coming a distant second.
*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?


It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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fishfoodie
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Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:44 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:33 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:16 pm

*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?


It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?
:wave:
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Tichtheid
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Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:44 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:33 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:16 pm

*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?


It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?

The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath
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Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:44 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:33 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:16 pm

*if* Labour return to being Scotland’s number one party, the recriminations within the SNP and wider independence movement would be fascinating. Will circumstances ever align better for them over a decade period again?


It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?
This feels like another flavour of 'support for independence has levelled out at x%'. I'm old enough to remember when Labour/the tories/lib dems, and all the media reported it as still constant at around 25%. Then they said the same thing about 30%. Then about a third. Then just under 40%. Now they're saying it's still constant at mid 40s. I'm not sure how it can have been constant when the numbers have shown a relentless increase over the longer period. Even now they're saying 'still around 45%' without saying that is calculated including undecided, so the lead for the status quo is low single figures instead of the 10% from 2014.

Over the longer term, the momentum is only in one direction
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Slick
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Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:02 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:44 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:33 pm



It was 2007 when the SNP became the most popular party in Scotland both in terms of the popular vote and number of seats. I think the most telling stat at the moment is that support for indy is very strong among younger voters, from way over 85% in the youngest cohort dropping off to 50% at the 55 to 65 age group, then to around 30% in the older age group - these are the hard core Labour and Tory (mostly Labour) voters.

As Biffer suggests, the alignment with the Tories on several issues will do little to win over these younger voters who make up the future electorate in Scotland
It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?

The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath
I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.
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Insane_Homer
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“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
dpedin
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Slick wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:35 am
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:02 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:44 pm

It’s definitely one interpretation. The question is how salient the issue remains? Young Quebecois don’t love Canada but the issue faded away. No one can bang the same drum forever
How do you recreate the circumstances to even get a vote if the SNP aren’t in government?

The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath
I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.
There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.
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Tichtheid
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dpedin wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:47 am
Slick wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:35 am
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:02 pm


The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath
I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.
There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.


Yeah, I get the feeling that is an accurate analysis of where we are, Labour's vote is increasing in polling at around the same level as the SNP's is diminishing across all cohorts, as you say there is a desperation to get the Tories out. There may even be a swell of feeling to get the SNP out of Holyrood after the bin fire of this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is less support for Indy.
Biffer
Posts: 9142
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Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Slick
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dpedin wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:47 am
Slick wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:35 am
Tichtheid wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:02 pm


The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath
I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.
There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.
yes, that's very fair actually, and I'm sometimes guilty of conflating the two which is wrong.

Please don't call her Wee Nic though, she is a fucking disgrace.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
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C69
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sturginho wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:36 am
Fuck me that's depressing
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Sandstorm
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C69 wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:18 am
sturginho wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:36 am
Fuck me that's depressing
5 PMs
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8 Health Secretaries
8 Home Secretaries
10 Education Secretaries
12 Cultural Secretaries


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Paddington Bear
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Tichtheid wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:54 am
dpedin wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:47 am
Slick wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:35 am

I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.
There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.


Yeah, I get the feeling that is an accurate analysis of where we are, Labour's vote is increasing in polling at around the same level as the SNP's is diminishing across all cohorts, as you say there is a desperation to get the Tories out. There may even be a swell of feeling to get the SNP out of Holyrood after the bin fire of this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is less support for Indy.
Right, but the SNP being out of power removes any realistic mechanism to have an independence vote, so polling data doesn’t really matter
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
sockwithaticket
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Sandstorm wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:26 am
C69 wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:18 am
sturginho wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:36 am
Fuck me that's depressing
5 PMs
7 Chancellors
8 Foreign Secretaries
8 Health Secretaries
8 Home Secretaries
10 Education Secretaries
12 Cultural Secretaries


1 Circus Fire
But May told us it would be chaos under Labour!
sockwithaticket
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Biffer wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:03 am Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.
I'm sure someone somewhere in the party has enough constitutional knowledge to realise this, but the Tories will forge ahead anyway because those making the decisions are still deeply unaccustomed to and actually aggrivede by being told no. Then when it doesn't work they'll fall back on blaming lefty lawyers and the civil service, perhaps even the moon being in retrograde, because that always plays well with the base regardless of whether there's any truth to what's being aid.
Biffer
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sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:38 am
Biffer wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:03 am Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.
I'm sure someone somewhere in the party has enough constitutional knowledge to realise this, but the Tories will forge ahead anyway because those making the decisions are still deeply unaccustomed to and actually aggrivede by being told no. Then when it doesn't work they'll fall back on blaming lefty lawyers and the civil service, perhaps even the moon being in retrograde, because that always plays well with the base regardless of whether there's any truth to what's being aid.
I think it'd require the Lords to accept a shortened timescale and let's face it, they won't.

Cue the Lords, and all the tories in there, being part of the left leaning Liberal elite.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Calculon
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 10:40 pm
Tichtheid wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:59 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:20 pm

Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over


It's all about nailing one's colours to the mast now - for instance I've noticed a Venn diagram overlap of anti-vaxxers anti-lockdown Covid denier types with those who are most vocal in support of Israel's continued bombing in Gazza
Christian Evangelical wingnuts, innit !

the single most bizarre political group, & their relationship with Israel is the weirdest part, because they want Israel to exist, because they believe that it forms an important part of the whole "End of Days" shit, when the Jews will either convert, or get burned up with the rest of us unbelievers.

They're ISIS without the violence so far; but I don't rule out the violence coming in my lifetime.
Young, under 35 evangelicals are actually less supportive of Isreali than non evangelicals. There's a big divide based on age, more so than with non evangelicals. Also easy to overstate vaccine hesitancy amongst evangelicals. Yes greater than non evangelicals but iirc something like 54 percent indicated they took or will take a vaccine, as opposed to 77percent non evangelicals.

The loudest anti vaxers have been MAGA, who are also very much divided on support for Isreali. While the likes of MTG are firm supporters, many are not. They dislike Muslims, but they also really don't like the Jews. Something of course they have in common with many of those on the left and Muslims. Support for Isreali anyway crosses the political spectrum in the States, with a progressive democrat like Fetterman equality as supportive as a conservative repub desantis. Again the division is more age based, with admittedly more younger people being Democrats.

Also I've known many Evangelicals, friends and family. While some of their beliefs are obviously batshit insane, comparing them to ISIS is ridiculous
Last edited by Calculon on Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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