What's going on in Ukraine?

[TheNatalShark]

what's the mood amongst Ukrainians regarding the war?

On the whole, they'd prefer a holiday at the beach?

What he said, I've no particular insight at the moment.

[Calculon]

some impressive drone flying

[Hellraiser]

There's a lot of milblogger chatter that the Russians are going to pull back south and east from the banks of the Dnipro in Kherson. Their positions are increasingly untenable and the Ukrainians managed a major widening and deepening of the bridgehead last week. The Ukrainians have control of, or presence in, territory up to several kilometres deep from Bilohrudove in the west, to Korsunka in the east. The Oleshky Sands are causing the Russians serious problems in moving heavy equipment in and out of the area.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall expects to transfer 25 Leopard 1A5s, 14 Leopard 2A4s, 5 Bergepanzers, 2 ARVs, 2 training tanks, and a number of Caracal air assault vehicles to Ukraine in early 2024.

[Flockwitt]

I don't normally post Operator Starsky's stuff but another Russian general's bitten the dust, along with his wife. Nasty going ons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6K3GiJBhKI

[Flockwitt]

To the surprise of nobody the western price cap on Russian oil has had no effect. They're not supposed to be selling over US$60 / barrel. The average price Russia's received for the last month was $79.40.

[tabascoboy]

To the surprise of nobody the western price cap on Russian oil has had no effect. They're not supposed to be selling over US$60 / barrel. The average price Russia's received for the last month was $79.40.

Whether it will make any difference, given that there are alleged to be a host of tankers carrying Russian oil under various flags

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Another one gone, and appears to be a new event on the left bank of Kherson district

[tabascoboy]

1/ 76 Russian soldiers are reported to have been killed in a Ukrainian attack in the Kherson region after being used as bait – or 'living targets' – by their commanders. The incident, probably a HIMARS strike, is reportedly being hushed up by the Russian military.

7/ ...An investigation is said to be underway, but "an attempt is being made to conceal the fact of an obviously criminal order from the group’s command, due to which the military personnel found themselves in the role of a living target." /end

Full thread with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726 ... 33551.html

[Hellraiser]

Leopard 1A5s are finally at the front. Probably the 44th Mechanized Brigade.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians still seem to have a stock of missiles for Tochka-Us. There was a strike in Belgorod last night.

Russian media and propagandists began to acknowledge the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces again began to use OTR-21 Tochka-U in Russian rear areas. In particular, at the Rovenki airfield in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, where they found fragments of the rocket in the photo. At the same time, one of the options for replenishing Ukrainian reserves of missiles of this type is the ammunition depots near Balakleya abandoned by the occupiers themselves during the retreat. There are also options for importing from one of the countries that previously used these complexes.

In addition, some Russian propagandists also admitted the use of long-range Ukrainian kamikaze drones at airfields. In particular, a hit on MiG-31 fighters located at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea on November 7, 2023 is recognized.

@yigal_levin

[TB63]

[Uncle fester]

Leopard 1A5s are finally at the front. Probably the 44th Mechanized Brigade.

These are the glass cannon tanks yeah?

[Hellraiser]

[TheNatalShark]

Switched over to such in the volunteer centres, can you see the snow leopard?

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Seems a decent candidate - so therefore has no chance whatsoever even if she survives for much longer

A resident of Rzhev, Tver region, Ekaterina Duntsova was summoned to the prosecutor’s office five days after she announced her intention to nominate her candidacy for the Russian presidential election.

According to Duntsova, on November 20 she received a call from the prosecutor’s office and was invited to discuss the publication about her nomination.

The woman went to the meeting and said that she was asked, among other things, about her attitude to the war in Ukraine. At the end of the conversation, Duntsova signed an explanation in which she confirmed that she owns the VKontakte page on which the nomination was announced.

“We have to repeal all inhumane laws, restore relations with the outside world. Change budget priorities: spend money on improving the lives of citizens, and not on new tanks. Return the taken away freedoms. We must make the country attractive and comfortable to live in!”, it says on Duntsova’s website.

According to Duntsova, she is 40 years old, works as a journalist and has three children. According to data from her VKontakte page, the woman has been working in the media in Rzhev since 2003, and from 2006 to 2022 she was the editor-in-chief of the local television studio “RiT”.

In 2019, she was elected to the City Duma, where she served until 2022.
Duntsova’s nomination was supported by the “Our Headquarters” project, created by a group of employees of the “Ark” project.

Project participants claim that they are ready to help any candidates who advocate ending the war, releasing political prisoners and carrying out democratic reforms.

After Duntsova announced her nomination, several telegram channels reported this by publishing advertising posts.

[Sandstorm]

Seems a decent candidate - so therefore has no chance whatsoever even if she survives for much longer

A resident of Rzhev, Tver region, Ekaterina Duntsova was summoned to the prosecutor’s office five days after she announced her intention to nominate her candidacy for the Russian presidential election.

According to Duntsova, on November 20 she received a call from the prosecutor’s office and was invited to discuss the publication about her nomination.

The woman went to the meeting and said that she was asked, among other things, about her attitude to the war in Ukraine. At the end of the conversation, Duntsova signed an explanation in which she confirmed that she owns the VKontakte page on which the nomination was announced.

“We have to repeal all inhumane laws, restore relations with the outside world. Change budget priorities: spend money on improving the lives of citizens, and not on new tanks. Return the taken away freedoms. We must make the country attractive and comfortable to live in!”, it says on Duntsova’s website.

According to Duntsova, she is 40 years old, works as a journalist and has three children. According to data from her VKontakte page, the woman has been working in the media in Rzhev since 2003, and from 2006 to 2022 she was the editor-in-chief of the local television studio “RiT”.

In 2019, she was elected to the City Duma, where she served until 2022.
Duntsova’s nomination was supported by the “Our Headquarters” project, created by a group of employees of the “Ark” project.

Project participants claim that they are ready to help any candidates who advocate ending the war, releasing political prisoners and carrying out democratic reforms.

After Duntsova announced her nomination, several telegram channels reported this by publishing advertising posts.

I hope her flat is on the ground floor.....

[tabascoboy]

Seems a decent candidate - so therefore has no chance whatsoever even if she survives for much longer

I hope her flat is on the ground floor.....

And should beware of strange men offering tea...

[tabascoboy]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

[Raggs]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

Russian equipment still doesn't seem great, nor their supply logistics right? Winter is going to be harder on them than the Ukrainians I suspect. No, there probably won't be much movement, but I don't think it's going to be a net advantage to the Russians. The Ukrainians aren't going to stop fighting either, whether the West continues to give them masses of support, or even if it dials down. Personally, I don't see it completely disappearing by any means.

[tabascoboy]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

Russian equipment still doesn't seem great, nor their supply logistics right? Winter is going to be harder on them than the Ukrainians I suspect. No, there probably won't be much movement, but I don't think it's going to be a net advantage to the Russians. The Ukrainians aren't going to stop fighting either, whether the West continues to give them masses of support, or even if it dials down. Personally, I don't see it completely disappearing by any means.

The munitions that Russia are getting from North Korea are pretty poor quality by all accounts, so it's also a question of whether they can ramp up production themselves or find another supplier - and get it where needed during the winter

[Raggs]

Russian equipment still doesn't seem great, nor their supply logistics right? Winter is going to be harder on them than the Ukrainians I suspect. No, there probably won't be much movement, but I don't think it's going to be a net advantage to the Russians. The Ukrainians aren't going to stop fighting either, whether the West continues to give them masses of support, or even if it dials down. Personally, I don't see it completely disappearing by any means.

The munitions that Russia are getting from North Korea are pretty poor quality by all accounts, so it's also a question of whether they can ramp up production themselves or find another supplier - and get it where needed during the winter

Given North Korea have just pulled out of the military agreement with South Korea, and seem to be getting more aggressive, are they going to continue selling to Russia?

[tabascoboy]

Russian equipment still doesn't seem great, nor their supply logistics right? Winter is going to be harder on them than the Ukrainians I suspect. No, there probably won't be much movement, but I don't think it's going to be a net advantage to the Russians. The Ukrainians aren't going to stop fighting either, whether the West continues to give them masses of support, or even if it dials down. Personally, I don't see it completely disappearing by any means.

The munitions that Russia are getting from North Korea are pretty poor quality by all accounts, so it's also a question of whether they can ramp up production themselves or find another supplier - and get it where needed during the winter

Given North Korea have just pulled out of the military agreement with South Korea, and seem to be getting more aggressive, are they going to continue selling to Russia?

I did read something recently about how reliant NK are on artillery and that they certainly aren't a bottomless pit of supply when they have their own priorities

[Uncle fester]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

Are we underestimating Russia's ability to bleed profusely and not die?

[tabascoboy]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

Are we underestimating Russia's ability to bleed profusely and not die?

Well as the article says, after next year's totally free and fair elections...which Putin knows he has already won - he'll be able to drive even larger waves of mobilization again so nothing can be taken for granted given the nature of the beast

[Uncle fester]

Retrospective but Russians had their fingers in the Hunter Biden pie stuff.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67425906

[Hellraiser]

Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning
Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.
...
Read whole article at https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-los ... tantamount

Galeotti should not be taken seriously at all. He's a Westsplainer on Russia and has been desperately trying to deflect attention from the fact he was made to look like a naive idiot on Feb 24th last year when two decades of analysis and academia went up in smoke.

[Hellraiser]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1727 ... 37686.html

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Russian instructor of Storm Z units, currently based near Avdiivka, complains that despite very high density of fire, Russian artillery is unable to provide proper support for assaulting units, resulting in heavy losses for the infantry. According to him, although enough ammo was accumulated for the operation, Russian artillery is wasting a lot of it.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Skynex in operation in Kyiv last night using AHEAD munitions.

[tabascoboy]

Winter weather has seriously kicked in thanks to a storm in the Black Sea, also with storm surges in Crimea and the RU coast. Hope that UAs winter gear is better than the Ruzzians