What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-67838996

Guess we know why it was so quiet on the missile front recently. Zero military benefit for all that outlay though.

It's not sustainable for the Russians either. Much is being made of this being the biggest air raid so far. Less is being made of the fact that it is taking Russia months to stockpile enough missiles and drones for this kind of attack. It used to be days or weeks.

[tabascoboy]

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

[tabascoboy]

Well we've been here before, but this time seems less likely to be a stray AD originating from UA

[tabascoboy]

Quite a long thread worth reading if you can ( not yet available in simple text version



This one being the key point that so many either overlook or ignore for their own reasons

The problem is this: For the West, negotiations are a means of ending the war. For Russia, they are a means of winning it.

Putin recognizes this mismatch and is eager to exploit it. I'm not sure all Western policymakers understand it, however.

[Sandstorm]

Western arms manufacturers and their political friends won’t slow down supplying Ukraine while Putin pretends to make nice. Too much cash to be made.

No-one seriously believes Vlad is serious about pulling back.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Also priced into this for the west is Tawain. If the USA fold on Ukraine a lot of people will think they can go screw themselves on Taiwan when China takes control

[ASMO]

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

Sure it death by falling out of a window

[Uncle fester]

Western arms manufacturers and their political friends won’t slow down supplying Ukraine while Putin pretends to make nice. Too much cash to be made.

No-one seriously believes Vlad is serious about pulling back.

Smart call would be to say "no talks until after the Russian elections".
There's no point in negotiating with somebody who might get voted out of power after all.

[Sandstorm]

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

Sure it death by falling out of a window

He lent out too far while watering his window boxes. Tragic accident.

[fishfoodie]

Also priced into this for the west is Tawain. If the USA fold on Ukraine a lot of people will think they can go screw themselves on Taiwan when China takes control

It's an excellent proving ground for weapons that have only been used in exercises up to now !

The Chinese have been developing a new light tank that conveniently can be airlifted, & an IFV modeled off the Bradley. I imagine there are a lot of Chinese engineers working their arses off developing improvements to counter the likes of the Javelin, but they're still stuck with a bunch of designs that are basically duplicates of the soviet designs that are getting turned into scrap metal across Ukraine !

There's also the minor matter that the Chinese military has gotten their arses kicked up & down the street by pretty much every opponent they've ever met in the last millennium or so. They might talk a good game, but as Ukraine has also showed, human wave tactics just leads to good business for body bag manufacturers !

[Flockwitt]

That’s not actually correct about the Chinese stuff. The new gear they’ve got coming down the track is good. Their digital tank works, unlike Russia’s, and their intended doctrine is modern usage, to sit kms from the front line, not to spearhead. The Chinese new light tank is specifically designed to be able to fight in Himalayan terrain. Can shoot up at a far higher angle than traditional tanks, can go over sandy ground and operates in low oxygen air. The Chinese have come at this planning from a blank sheet for decades into the future. They are the reverse of the hidebound Russians.

[Guy Smiley]

I get a pretty gloomy feeling about the Ukraine situation...

I know Ukraine have made some impressive advances and managed excellent, long range damaging hits, but Russia seems set to grind this out for years if need be. I worry that battle fatigue will set in and / or support will fade, especially from the US. I know various European leaders have warned of this very thing and are urging continuing vigilance and fair enough, this on their doorstep... but I don't see an end in sight unless something fundamental shifts and serious damage is inflicted on Putin and Russia.

[fishfoodie]

That’s not actually correct about the Chinese stuff. The new gear they’ve got coming down the track is good. Their digital tank works, unlike Russia’s, and their intended doctrine is modern usage, to sit kms from the front line, not to spearhead. The Chinese new light tank is specifically designed to be able to fight in Himalayan terrain. Can shoot up at a far higher angle than traditional tanks, can go over sandy ground and operates in low oxygen air. The Chinese have come at this planning from a blank sheet for decades into the future. They are the reverse of the hidebound Russians.

Yeah, I've seen the bits about them developing engines that can perform at the altitudes they'd need to for meeting India, & sure, they fit newer generation IR vision systems than the Russian, but fundamentally they've zero combat experience for any of their tanks, none, nada, bumpkiss !

The one figure I'd really like to know is what the effective engagement range of the targeting systems in the Abrams vs the Chinese tanks is, because that's the biggest advantage the M1A1 & the Leopard have against the Russian MBTs is; they can engage >1km further out, & that's one hell of an advantage.

[Flockwitt]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

[fishfoodie]

... heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

that's the other part of their dependency on the Russians for key components; they aren't capable of developing their own Gen 4/5 fighter power plants, & maybe some of their electronics are better than the stock Russian ones, but the way the Orcs haven't dared let any of their air superiority fighters get within range of NATO MANPADS tells us all we need to know about how the Orcs expect their fighters to survive over Ukraine, & that would fuck up their export potential, & in the same way they've kept the Armata MBT hidden away, it isn't because they're afraid it will win the war too quickly.

[Calculon]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

the Chinese have a lot of rockets and the capability to build loads of drones. their Navy is a bit shit though. Their economy is also highly reliant on exports, and unlike russia, on imports of food and energy.In the case of an attempted invasion of Taiwan it is within Taiwan's allies ability to severely disrupt those imports and exports, to the extent their economy might well collapse. If this happens the Chinese, who are usually "natural born serfs" might well start to get very rioty (see end of covid restrictions), which is what really worries the CCP.

[Hellraiser]

China has a long history of revolts and rebellions. It's quite unlike Russia in that regard.

[Uncle fester]

Maybe the Chinese military and their equipment will turn out to be amazing but they have zero combat experience.

[tabascoboy]

Ah yes Russia, the true upholders of international law trying to lecture others...

[tc27]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

Its also teaching some old lessons - you need to be able to build thousands of artillery shells each month - harks back the the 'shell crisis' of 1915. Artillery dominance = battlefield dominance.

Armies are going to have to think seriously about cost effective drone defense - radar guided machine guns/20mm cannons/laser ETC will probably be needed at company level (one per 100ish men or 1-12 vehicles).

Attacking enemies in prepared positions without total air and artillery dominance is still very difficult.

[Hellraiser]

In case anyone is wondering about what actually happened in Belgorod today, the damage was caused by debris from Russia's own AD intercepting Ukrainian drones, with at least one S-300 missile malfunctioning and itself hitting the city.

Of course Russia is trying to deflect from this as hard as it can.

[tabascoboy]

In case anyone is wondering about what actually happened in Belgorod today, the damage was caused by debris from Russia's own AD intercepting Ukrainian drones, with at least one S-300 missile malfunctioning and itself hitting the city.

Of course Russia is trying to deflect from this as hard as it can.

Russians were boasting earlier about how they intercepted everything and the impacts being from "falling debris..."

Responsibility for what happened today in Belgorod lies squarely on Putin and his supporters. And I’m not necessarily referring to the fact that Russian S-300 in their own typical way of being Made-in-Russia garbage hit their own people. It goes far beyond than that.

This entire war was doomed to come back to Russia. It was Moscow where this war has been conceived and here we have the results. From a 3-day “special operation” to a full scale war where hundreds of thousands Russians already perished. Now when Russians completely lost control of things, it was only a matter of time that it will hit them.

Russian calls for “vengeance” are as dumb as they are redundant. They don’t need excuses to murder, they already murder as they please. They can only convince the last uncertain one in the West that peace can only be established by completely annihilating the Russian army in Ukraine and the surrounding border area. Hitting Kharkiv right now is as self-defeating as it can be. It won’t shatter Ukrainian resolve, in the contrary. The Ukrainian nation has never been so unified and determined. They will do whatever is necessary for their freedom and independence.

[Flockwitt]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

Its also teaching some old lessons - you need to be able to build thousands of artillery shells each month - harks back the the 'shell crisis' of 1915. Artillery dominance = battlefield dominance.

Armies are going to have to think seriously about cost effective drone defense - radar guided machine guns/20mm cannons/laser ETC will probably be needed at company level (one per 100ish men or 1-12 vehicles).

Attacking enemies in prepared positions without total air and artillery dominance is still very difficult.

True enough. If we consider that the Taliban built trenches and all the US did was bomb them out of them. Then bombed them out some more till the conventional war internally was won. Ukraine war isn’t necessarily a true reflection of how NATO would fight.

Regards drones the various drawing boards have different options here. Mini-tanks designed specifically for the job etc.

[Hellraiser]

[Rhubarb & Custard]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

the Chinese have a lot of rockets and the capability to build loads of drones. their Navy is a bit shit though. Their economy is also highly reliant on exports, and unlike russia, on imports of food and energy.In the case of an attempted invasion of Taiwan it is within Taiwan's allies ability to severely disrupt those imports and exports, to the extent their economy might well collapse. If this happens the Chinese, who are usually "natural born serfs" might well start to get very rioty (see end of covid restrictions), which is what really worries the CCP.

What should worry them is in an age of global warming China has some glacial water, but not a lot, and then not much else in the way of water supply. And that has been a question for a while now, what happens when nations start going to war for water, oil makes some makes some odd choices, but if you needed water you might make odder ones still.

really every other problem can come after they're about to run out of water, or so you'd think but still they look to massively increase use of fossil fuels. long term thinking in an autocracy my arse

[Calculon]

Ah yes Russia, the true upholders of international law trying to lecture others...

The Czechs had a good response to this

[Calculon]

The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

the Chinese have a lot of rockets and the capability to build loads of drones. their Navy is a bit shit though. Their economy is also highly reliant on exports, and unlike russia, on imports of food and energy.In the case of an attempted invasion of Taiwan it is within Taiwan's allies ability to severely disrupt those imports and exports, to the extent their economy might well collapse. If this happens the Chinese, who are usually "natural born serfs" might well start to get very rioty (see end of covid restrictions), which is what really worries the CCP.

What should worry them is in an age of global warming China has some glacial water, but not a lot, and then not much else in the way of water supply. And that has been a question for a while now, what happens when nations start going to war for water, oil makes some makes some odd choices, but if you needed water you might make odder ones still.

really every other problem can come after they're about to run out of water, or so you'd think but still they look to massively increase use of fossil fuels. long term thinking in an autocracy my arse

Not something I know much about but this doesn't seem to make much sense. I'm pretty sure they have increased renewable energy significantly and with a falling population and falling demand in manufacturing I can't see why they would need a massive increase in fossil fuel use

[TheNatalShark]

I think CCP sees the fossil fuel writing on the wall and is aggressively tackling it, see huge resources thrown at renewable installations and scaling, which handily undercuts western manufacturers at home and abroad, whilst only Dems and EU commission seem interested in.


On topic, initial impressions Lviv a great city for a visit. Helps it's a little easier to understand than the eastern dialects and Russian.

[tabascoboy]

Ah yes Russia, the true upholders of international law trying to lecture others...

The Czechs had a good response to this

And at least one other nation called them out on this

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Many of the Russian missiles, which get destroyed in Ukraine, are detected by the highly sophisticated radar units of multiple air defense systems, such as the MIM-104 Patriot, IRIS-T SLM or NASAMS. The performance of those radar units is excellent. All 10 Russian Khinzals have been eliminated this morning. But it does not end here.

Radar units such as the AN/MPQ-53, the Sentinel radar or the Hensoldt TRML-4D are collecting vast amount of data which are invaluable for further improving those already excellent radar systems. Any potential buyers of Russian missiles will not only realize that the Russian tech is inferior but also that NATO and its allies are in possession of all collected data, rendering those Russian missiles useless if the enemy possesses Western technology.

Nevertheless, even the best radar system needs missiles and this is why the West has to deliver more of them. Ukraine is a huge country and with the current number of air defense systems it isn't possible to cover all areas. We have to close every gap. We have to do far more.

[Raggs]

I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

[Biffer]

I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

[Sandstorm]

I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Everyone wants Russia to "lose" or retreat back over the border. War ends, aid can switch to rebuilding instead of solely supplying weapons (Ukraine will still buy lots of tanks, etc) and Russia gets humiliated. They're already weak, just need Ukraine to prove it.

[Raggs]

I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Ukraine doesn't win whilst the war is ongoing. The longer Russia is engaged with Ukraine, the more of a "win" it is for other western countries in a sense. If Russia is so clearly outgunned that they lose all the land back to Ukraine in a season, then they go back, lick their wounds and rebuild. If they instead never quite lose, but have to constantly throw more people and equipment into the grinder, the bigger long term "win" for the west.

[Uncle fester]

I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Ukraine doesn't win whilst the war is ongoing. The longer Russia is engaged with Ukraine, the more of a "win" it is for other western countries in a sense. If Russia is so clearly outgunned that they lose all the land back to Ukraine in a season, then they go back, lick their wounds and rebuild. If they instead never quite lose, but have to constantly throw more people and equipment into the grinder, the bigger long term "win" for the west.

Need the war to end to get Ukraine into NATO and EU.

[Raggs]

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Ukraine doesn't win whilst the war is ongoing. The longer Russia is engaged with Ukraine, the more of a "win" it is for other western countries in a sense. If Russia is so clearly outgunned that they lose all the land back to Ukraine in a season, then they go back, lick their wounds and rebuild. If they instead never quite lose, but have to constantly throw more people and equipment into the grinder, the bigger long term "win" for the west.

Need the war to end to get Ukraine into NATO and EU.

Just to point out, I'm looking at this with right bastard eyes, not saving the most peoples lives eyes.

Why do they need to be in Nato and the EU? Nato is basically in the region to help prevent Russian aggression. EU is pretty much a separate discussion altogether. Right now, the war is preventing Russian aggression anywhere else. It's weakening their ability to be aggressive anywhere else. When it stops, with them winning or losing, they have time to fix everything, as it stands, with the war ongoing, they're suffering and unable to improve much. Sanctions etc, prevent them from doing much. The moment the war is over, especially if they lose, the sanctions will start to be released, and they can build back bigger and fix issues they have.

[Flockwitt]

The question people should be asking as we come up to two years of the war is if and how Ukraine can win. They need aid, military and non-military, and manpower. The West has barely flexed it's muscles here in terms of what they could provide. But if they don't actually make an effort the grind of war will wear on Ukraine... after two years it is already wearing on Ukraine.

[tc27]

The question people should be asking as we come up to two years of the war is if and how Ukraine can win. They need aid, military and non-military, and manpower. The West has barely flexed it's muscles here in terms of what they could provide. But if they don't actually make an effort the grind of war will wear on Ukraine... after two years it is already wearing on Ukraine.

Not sure I agree completely with this narrative. The history of the last half of the 20th century is that the grind phase in the end favors the defender who just need to outlast the political will of the invading opponent to keep fighting a war of choice.

[Sandstorm]

The question people should be asking as we come up to two years of the war is if and how Ukraine can win. They need aid, military and non-military, and manpower. The West has barely flexed it's muscles here in terms of what they could provide. But if they don't actually make an effort the grind of war will wear on Ukraine... after two years it is already wearing on Ukraine.

Not sure I agree completely with this narrative. The history of the last half of the 20th century is that the grind phase in the end favors the defender who just need to outlast the political will of the invading opponent to keep fighting a war of choice.

True. Also if Biden gets back in a second time (god willing), I reckon the US Military Complex will ship 1000% more gear to Ukraine next Winter. Money to be made here, Joe....