Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 6:47 am
fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2024 10:06 pm
tc27 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:45 pm
Its going to be Trump again isn't it?
Fucking hell.
Well let's wait till NH has it's caucus Tuesday; we'll have some idea then how many of Meatballs supporters were "Never Trumpers", & how many were just looking for a younger MAGA candidate.
It was always going to take something extraordinary for the loser traitor to not get the nomination; but luckily there are at least 91 extraordinary things going on at the moment, & there's also the 14th Amendment discussion to play out.
There are a significant percentage of even MAGA nutters who concede that a guilty verdict in any one of the criminal trials would stop them voting for him; & that, or an adverse SCOTUS decision would leave the GOP scrambling to either run a candidate who will not only lose (again), but also destroy the chances on the down-ballot votes, & might lose the GOP more than just the Presidency !!!
Now even in the event of 91x convictions, I don't think the loser would withdraw, so they might face going into the Convention trying to get an electable alternative candidate against the one chosen by their caucuses, & I've know idea how that would even work.
I think those 91 prosecutions are precisely why he will be re-elected. So much free advertising - and then there is the sympathy vote as so many voters see these cases as political.
I understand the concern, but I don't think that's how it will work.
It's true that each time he got indicted, he got a boost in donations, & he & his lick-spittles trumpeted this as a sign of support for him. The fact was that the donation spike got smaller & smaller every time, & given that legal fees are the biggest ticket item in the campaign finances, he needs to get charged a lot more !
This campaign has the same basic considerations as every other one. Each side has their base vote, & then there are the independent voters in the middle.
All of the GOP failures between Biden's win, have shown that the MAGA base is the only safe votes he can rely on. Overturning Roe v Wade was an incredible misstep, & it lost many Non-MAGA GOP votes, & most of the independents. I don't think he'll get as many sympathy votes, as Biden will get votes from Non-MAGAs who just want madness to stop; they're sick of it.
There's also the teeny, tiny matter of money, & the lack thereof !
There are several GOP State orgs on the point of going bankrupt, & the Traitor isn't getting the big donors; they preferred the alternatives, & very clearly set their face against him.
You can't win the Presidency without plenty of Ad money; & right now the orange one doesn't have a pot to piss in, because he's toxic to most of the big donors.