Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Biffer]

Labour don't have any attack dogs. And that's a stupid line as well because you can't explain how the Tories are sabotaging a future Labour government without saying - irresponsibly low tax and spend numbers when you're telling everyone that you'll stick to their fiscal rules and won't raise tax yourself.

You can have a coherent message about the Tory government is being using the state as a vassal to enrich their mates, having policies from libertarian think tanks that have failed before, and have chronically underinvested in public services which are teetering. But then you need to propose fixes - and the Tories will steal them/papers will attack them etc etc isn't a valid defence against that. As the Tory press will attack them in govt if they keep them a secret (uturns as usual) and the election will be within a year so even if the Tories do steal them they won't improve things enough for a bounce. And as said, they are already announcing policies anyway, they're just disregarding most of them.

You're living in the past if you think the Labour party can do politics like that nowadays without being ripped apart in advance of the election. You have to wait and let the tories continue what they're doing, let them fall apart and continue to be arseholes. All you need to do is portray a vague idea of competence in comparison to them.

It'd be nice if politics was based on policies like it used to be, but it's not.

I mean that's fine to think that. But one problem; they're being ripped apart in the press today, yesterday, tomorrow, and every day anyway. And they'll get ripped apart everyday of campaigning. Oh and that continues when they're elected.

And as said, the issue of "vague competence" comes apart when in government and without a plan to fix any of the problems. Leading to a more extreme politics, sadly.

Because they put explicit policies out and then had to change them as the governmental position worsened.


If they’d said they were going to invest in green industry, but the final figure couldn’t be certain until they were clear just how much the Tories fucked the economy before they leave, that’s a more defendable position.

[C69]

"It's the economy stupid"

Cheers Sunak you have driven us into recession.
Where is the economic growth you useless cnuts?

[Biffer]

Yay recession.

With Hunt and Sunak having tried to take credit for inflation coming down, saying it’s to do with their economic management, we’ll obviously see a screeching u turn where now an economic down turn is obviously nothing to do with their economic management. Fucking shower of cunts.

[dpedin]

Yay recession.

With Hunt and Sunak having tried to take credit for inflation coming down, saying it’s to do with their economic management, we’ll obviously see a screeching u turn where now an economic down turn is obviously nothing to do with their economic management. Fucking shower of cunts.

What's even worse than the headline GDP figure is the GDP per capita figures



So in effect for the last few years we have been able to maintain GDP for UK Ltd by growing the population whilst GDP per capita was falling. Of course MR Hunt will ignore this and talk about squiggly lines or something!

[Hal Jordan]

Yay recession.

With Hunt and Sunak having tried to take credit for inflation coming down, saying it’s to do with their economic management, we’ll obviously see a screeching u turn where now an economic down turn is obviously nothing to do with their economic management. Fucking shower of cunts.

Hunt has already blamed it on inflation and interest rates.

[petej]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

[fishfoodie]

You stupid people !!

Don't you know that the really important issue is inheritance taxes ? That's what the Chancellor is correctly focused on.

[Paddington Bear]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

[dpedin]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

That's a very strange thing to assert without any evidence to back it up!

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

That's a very strange thing to assert without any evidence to back it up!

Brexit benefits tend to be... harmful as benefits go

[Paddington Bear]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

That's a very strange thing to assert without any evidence to back it up!

It’s been discussed on here a number of times before. To start with, I’d recommend looking up what percentage of visas given out since covid are for work

[petej]

Immigration is the only thing propping up the Tories economic shit show.

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

Not going to disagree. I assume that is due to replacing skilled immigrants with less skilled immigrants.

[robmatic]

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

That's a very strange thing to assert without any evidence to back it up!

It’s been discussed on here a number of times before. To start with, I’d recommend looking up what percentage of visas given out since covid are for work

To be fair, the easiest way to come to the UK if you are actually a skilled worker/have decent earning potential is to enrol your spouse on a cheap postgraduate course and then benefit from having an unrestricted right to work as their dependant.

[_Os_]

How does the UK officially being in recession impact the GE date? The per capita numbers indicate a deepening recession, a growing hole reaching -0.6% in Q4 of 2023. Interest rates will have to come down to get growth, but that could push up inflation.

Tory options looks like:

1. GE in May, because the Tories don't think the economy will improve maybe for years. They'll choose to fight an election where Labour can use the "Rishi's recession" line against them, because Tory lies and promises of jam tomorrow stand more chance of working now rather than later. The March/Q1 2024 GDP numbers come out on May the 10th, they'll go before then to avoid the possibility of Q1 2024 officially being negative growth, which would make selling the lies harder.

2. GE in Q4 2024, because the Tories think inflation and interest rates will come down and the UK will be out of recession by the end of the year. It would be madness to fight a GE under the cloud of officially being in recession, when they can wait.

May the 2nd the same day as the locals looks the more likely now imo.

[dpedin]

I’d all but guarantee the immigration we’ve experienced post-covid has been a significant net loss to UK plc

That's a very strange thing to assert without any evidence to back it up!

It’s been discussed on here a number of times before. To start with, I’d recommend looking up what percentage of visas given out since covid are for work

I am honestly interested in the data that supports the statement that immigration leads to a net loss to UK plc as it is contradicted from what I have recently read. For example recent data showed that 1 in 5 NHS staff are now from outside the UK and this rises 36% of all doctors and these are the highest ever levels in professional roles in the NHS. Is there reliable and contemporary data that supports the assertion that immigration leads to a significant net loss? Most of the data for previous years would suggest that immigrants are net contributors to the UK economy. The shift in balance between EEA and non EEA will have had an impact, that is true and Brexit has prevented UK employers from accessing the wider EEA labour market. The attached report suggests that even with this shift in immigration patterns it appears immigration still does more harm than good to UK economy? However it does sometimes depend how net contribution is worked out ie cost of education of immigrant dependents, etc. I am not suggesting you are wrong, rather I would be really interested to see data that says otherwise.

https://iasservices.org.uk/the-effect-o ... k-economy/

[dpedin]

How does the UK officially being in recession impact the GE date? The per capita numbers indicate a deepening recession, a growing hole reaching -0.6% in Q4 of 2023. Interest rates will have to come down to get growth, but that could push up inflation.

Tory options looks like:

1. GE in May, because the Tories don't think the economy will improve maybe for years. They'll choose to fight an election where Labour can use the "Rishi's recession" line against them, because Tory lies and promises of jam tomorrow stand more chance of working now rather than later. The March/Q1 2024 GDP numbers come out on May the 10th, they'll go before then to avoid the possibility of Q1 2024 officially being negative growth, which would make selling the lies harder.

2. GE in Q4 2024, because the Tories think inflation and interest rates will come down and the UK will be out of recession by the end of the year. It would be madness to fight a GE under the cloud of officially being in recession, when they can wait.

May the 2nd the same day as the locals looks the more likely now imo.

My money is on a May election. There's nothing in the pipeline that would suggest it will get better for the Tories. The improving weather will mean more boats across the channel, NHS waiting lists will continue to remain high, borrowing will continue to grow given increasing loss of confidence in the UK and growth is obviously anaemic or non existent. More time will lead to more Tory gaffes and more MPs standing down plus increased jostling amongst the right wing nutters getting ready to pounce once the Squatter has been ousted. Also we have even more Covid Enquiry hearings etc to come including that on procurement in 2024. Why prolong the agony? They have already given Labour access to the Civil Servants and the financial books. I believe they will go for a snap election in May and really focus on culture wars, antisemitism in the Labour Party and have the media barons ready to unleash a pile of shite on Starmer et al. It will be very very dirty and very acrimonious. Remember a number of these Tories fully expect to be held to account for various scandals ie PPE, Teeside, etc and are shitting themselves, Mone is just the tip of the iceberg.

[_Os_]

My money is on a May election.

Bookies still have an October-December GE as the heavy favourite, April-June is the second favourite. A double of a May GE and the Tories going under 165 seats is at about 14/1. I had never looked at these markets before, the odds are a bit rubbish and nearly exactly the same on: the Tories losing 151-200 seats compared to their 2019 GE result (giving them 165-214 seats), losing 201 or more seats (giving them under 165), winning less than 100 seats.

Extraordinary.

[C69]

How does the UK officially being in recession impact the GE date? The per capita numbers indicate a deepening recession, a growing hole reaching -0.6% in Q4 of 2023. Interest rates will have to come down to get growth, but that could push up inflation.

Tory options looks like:

1. GE in May, because the Tories don't think the economy will improve maybe for years. They'll choose to fight an election where Labour can use the "Rishi's recession" line against them, because Tory lies and promises of jam tomorrow stand more chance of working now rather than later. The March/Q1 2024 GDP numbers come out on May the 10th, they'll go before then to avoid the possibility of Q1 2024 officially being negative growth, which would make selling the lies harder.

2. GE in Q4 2024, because the Tories think inflation and interest rates will come down and the UK will be out of recession by the end of the year. It would be madness to fight a GE under the cloud of officially being in recession, when they can wait.

May the 2nd the same day as the locals looks the more likely now imo.

My money is on a May election. There's nothing in the pipeline that would suggest it will get better for the Tories. The improving weather will mean more boats across the channel, NHS waiting lists will continue to remain high, borrowing will continue to grow given increasing loss of confidence in the UK and growth is obviously anaemic or non existent. More time will lead to more Tory gaffes and more MPs standing down plus increased jostling amongst the right wing nutters getting ready to pounce once the Squatter has been ousted. Also we have even more Covid Enquiry hearings etc to come including that on procurement in 2024. Why prolong the agony? They have already given Labour access to the Civil Servants and the financial books. I believe they will go for a snap election in May and really focus on culture wars, antisemitism in the Labour Party and have the media barons ready to unleash a pile of shite on Starmer et al. It will be very very dirty and very acrimonious. Remember a number of these Tories fully expect to be held to account for various scandals ie PPE, Teeside, etc and are shitting themselves, Mone is just the tip of the iceberg.

I think if they go down the antisemitism route they will be eviscerated. Starmer's wife is a Jew and his children are following their mothers faith iirc they go to a faith based school.
The Tory major of Salisbury (?) was suspended today over anti-Semitism as well. It's a dangerous game to play
May will be about the time the whole of the NHS will be going to bring pay into the public domain. The RCN were seriously burnt over their unilateral negotiations last year and will want to see progress.
That said I believe the PRB will drag it's heals a little.
Hunt today praised the UK economy at a time when we moved into recession. Group Think in action.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

I think they might go early. Budget sounds like it'll have cuts to public services to justify tax cuts. they're not going to want time for people to notice they will not have said how and where the cuts will come (bar maybe in the 'future'), nor to consider just how much worse services are and will get.

In essence they're going to try a moderate version of a Liz Truss budget and hope either not enough people call them on their BS or Labout inherit the mess and are blamed for Hunt and Sunak taking a heavy yet somehow still diarrhoea laden shit on the steps of Nos. 10 & 11 on the way out

At minimum you'd think they're going to claim they'll slow the rate of increases to public sector funding, and services are already collapsing with industrial action afoot. But given they're so far behind they might as well go full on unicorn again and hope it worked as with Brexit

[Paddington Bear]

Their only hope is pulling a rabbit from the hat in the budget, then going fast. Anything else just prolongs the agony

[I like neeps]

I think they might go early. Budget sounds like it'll have cuts to public services to justify tax cuts. they're not going to want time for people to notice they will not have said how and where the cuts will come (bar maybe in the 'future'), nor to consider just how much worse services are and will get.

In essence they're going to try a moderate version of a Liz Truss budget and hope either not enough people call them on their BS or Labout inherit the mess and are blamed for Hunt and Sunak taking a heavy yet somehow still diarrhoea laden shit on the steps of Nos. 10 & 11 on the way out

At minimum you'd think they're going to claim they'll slow the rate of increases to public sector funding, and services are already collapsing with industrial action afoot. But given they're so far behind they might as well go full on unicorn again and hope it worked as with Brexit

Announce tax cuts funded by public sector cuts forcing Labour into campaigning on rising taxes (even if to the level you've just cut).

[Hal Jordan]

Their only hope is pulling a rabbit from the hat in the budget, then going fast. Anything else just prolongs the agony

But also prolongs the flow of money to the chums to help outgoing MPs secure jobs post election. Plus Sunak basically using the public purse to divert as much money to his family as possible.

[sockwithaticket]

Yep. I think they'll string it out as long as possible because they know making the gravyboat of public money accessible to doners/mates/family will be off the table for at least 5 years once the ballots are cast. No point in hastening that by 5/6 months.

[_Os_]

Anonymous account of a photo journo.

[C69]

Massive losses for the Tories overnight. Lets see them defend this lol

[Oxbow]

Wellingborough is the constituency next to mine, even though I didn't have a vote I had several leaflets about the Labour candidate come through my letterbox, but absolutely nothing from the Tories. I think they gave up on winning the seat the moment Bone got deselected.

[dpedin]

Wellingborough is the constituency next to mine, even though I didn't have a vote I had several leaflets about the Labour candidate come through my letterbox, but absolutely nothing from the Tories. I think they gave up on winning the seat the moment Bone got deselected.

.. and once the local party decided his new partner who he left his wife for would be their candidate! Something about lipstick on a pig?

[C69]

Loving the Tory Chairman stating it was a bad night for Labour and ..... antisemitism.
He should have been hammered and the Sacked Tory Salisbury Major's antisemitism raised.
But hey tbh I don't think anyone not being able to see a doctor or dentist or facing massive bills will change their vote because of antisemitism or Islamophobia.

[sturginho]

Labour's election strategy has been leaked, this is huge!

[sturginho]

Wellingborough is the constituency next to mine, even though I didn't have a vote I had several leaflets about the Labour candidate come through my letterbox, but absolutely nothing from the Tories. I think they gave up on winning the seat the moment Bone got deselected.

.. and once the local party decided his new partner who he left his wife for would be their candidate! Something about lipstick on a pig?

Somebody call Cameron!

[Tichtheid]

Meanwhile

Jobcentres told to stop referring benefit claimants to food banks

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... food-banks


It reminds me of the time Atos wrote to my mate's GP to tell him to stop signing my mate off sick.

[C69]

Labour's election strategy has been leaked, this is huge!

That will work

[tabascoboy]

Loving the Tory Chairman stating it was a bad night for Labour and ..... antisemitism.
He should have been hammered and the Sacked Tory Salisbury Major's antisemitism raised.
But hey tbh I don't think anyone not being able to see a doctor or dentist or facing massive bills will change their vote because of antisemitism or Islamophobia.

But, but, but...their voters staying at home!

Votes cast for "Reform" may have been the crucial factor in Wellingborough so no doubt they'll now compound the problems by trying even harder to win back those voters

[sockwithaticket]

Oh won't anyone think of the poor Housing Associations

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... -gove-told

Fletcher-Smith said London’s housing associations faced a development “cliff-edge” as finances become squeezed.

In addition to rising prices of construction materials, housing associations are also having to spend more money on existing stock after the Grenfell Tower fire, fixing ageing housing and addressing the sector’s damp and mould problems.

So they're having to fix problems of their own making and complaining that they're not making money as a result.

They seem to want billions of public money to construct houses that they would own and mostly rent to people. The absolute gall.

The government absolutely should pony up for new housing to be constructed, but as part of a council house building program, not to swell the portfolios of HOAs

[C69]

Loving the Tory Chairman stating it was a bad night for Labour and ..... antisemitism.
He should have been hammered and the Sacked Tory Salisbury Major's antisemitism raised.
But hey tbh I don't think anyone not being able to see a doctor or dentist or facing massive bills will change their vote because of antisemitism or Islamophobia.

But, but, but...their voters staying at home!

Votes cast for "Reform" may have been the crucial factor in Wellingborough so no doubt they'll now compound the problems by trying even harder to win back those voters

Reform are not going away and if they poll around 10% in the GE the Tories are fucked. I think for the first time since Blair came into power Tory voters are happy to switch directly to Starmer's bland insipid lot.

[I like neeps]

Loving the Tory Chairman stating it was a bad night for Labour and ..... antisemitism.
He should have been hammered and the Sacked Tory Salisbury Major's antisemitism raised.
But hey tbh I don't think anyone not being able to see a doctor or dentist or facing massive bills will change their vote because of antisemitism or Islamophobia.

But, but, but...their voters staying at home!

Votes cast for "Reform" may have been the crucial factor in Wellingborough so no doubt they'll now compound the problems by trying even harder to win back those voters

Reform are not going away and if they poll around 10% in the GE the Tories are fucked. I think for the first time since Blair came into power Tory voters are happy to switch directly to Starmer's bland insipid lot.

Switching isn't the story of last night:



Also Labours votes in Kingswood are down but by elections have low turnouts.

I think the story is tactical voting obviously huge for labour and previous Tories voters just not showing up.

[C69]

But, but, but...their voters staying at home!

Votes cast for "Reform" may have been the crucial factor in Wellingborough so no doubt they'll now compound the problems by trying even harder to win back those voters

Reform are not going away and if they poll around 10% in the GE the Tories are fucked. I think for the first time since Blair came into power Tory voters are happy to switch directly to Starmer's bland insipid lot.

Switching isn't the story of last night:



Also Labours votes in Kingswood are down but by elections have low turnouts.

I think the story is tactical voting obviously huge for labour and previous Tories voters just not showing up.

Voter are abandoning the Tories and switching to Reform and Labour. I hope tactical voting decimates the Tory Party and Labour get a massive majority.
Hopefully the band insipid Starmer can at least attempt radical change with a mandate.

[SaintK]

Deluded of Downing St.

Rishi Sunak has insisted that his government can afford to cut taxes, despite the country having entered a recession, because “economic conditions have improved”.
Speaking to the media, he said “our plan is working” and he can “give everyone the piece of mind that there is a better future for them and their families”.

He said tax cuts were possible “because of our plan to halve inflation, which has been successful over the past year, and because economic conditions have improved. We have already been able to start cutting taxes for people.”

[tabascoboy]

Possibly with a GE on the horizon Tory voters aren't bothered with a potential by election loss but that by election apathy could apply equally to Labour and other party voters. If it's not apathy or protest votes but a mix of a genuine switch to Reform for reasons and being fed up with the Tories in government then it's hard to see anything changing much in a few months to change opinions. No doubt we'll now get a daft giveaway budget in a desperate attempt to woo the waverers.

[_Os_]

A quick review. Usual caveats about byelection turnout, and ignoring the swing from 2019 too as it's not that relevant anymore.

The one liner is that the settled will of 75%-80% of the UK electorate is they want the Tories gone. Everything else is just trying to work out how big their defeat will be through tactical voting. No one in the media puts it into these simple terms, it makes for a boring story, a lot of the stuff the media focuses on is interesting but not changing the mind of that 75%-80%.

Tories: 24.6% Wellingborough, 34.9% Kingswood. Looks quite good for them? Especially with the negatives they're carrying in Wellingborough. They're not performances below where the polling places them. Kingswood is far above the polling.

Labour: 45.9% Wellingborough, 44.9% Kingswood. Again about where polling is placing them.

Lib Dems: 4.7% Wellingborough, 3.5% Kingswood. More evidence the majority of Lib Dem voters will tactically vote for Labour if the Lib Dems cannot remove the Tory. Both performances are less than half where the Lib Dems are polling, and half their 2019 result. Bad for the Tories, good for Labour.

Reform: 13% Wellingborough (and Britain First 1.6%), 10.4% Kingswood (and 0.5% UKIP). The first time Reform polling has translated into a real election? These are good Reform results, but not stunning over performances. Wellingborough is a guide to their ceiling, the Tories didn't campaign and had a bad candidate and by all reports Reform ran a good campaign, combining the Reform and Britain First vote there gives 14.6%. Bad for the Tories, the performances are the minimum level needed for Tories that want to move further right to keep shouting, which will harm their campaign.

Green: 3.4% Wellingborough, 5.8% Kingswood. Bad for Labour, these were seats where Labour needed to overturn large majorities to win, this isn't evidence Green voters are voting tactically to remove Tories. the Wellingborough performance is the same as 2019 in % of the vote. Kingswood is a better performance than 2019 in terms of votes (more votes than 2019 with a lower turnout). Makes Brighton look like a lock in for the Greens and maybe a second seat somewhere is possible, Bristol Central is just down the road from Kingswood and the Greens are strong there.