What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

The Czechs have found another 700,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.

[dkm57]

The Czechs have found another 700,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.

Is that in addition to the ones that have already been financed through a round robin collection of EU countries?

[Hellraiser]

The Czechs have found another 700,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.

Is that in addition to the ones that have already been financed through a round robin collection of EU countries?

Yes, 1.5 million shells in total.

[yermum]

Pavel is such a mensch.

[Hellraiser]

[dkm57]

The Czechs have found another 700,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.

Is that in addition to the ones that have already been financed through a round robin collection of EU countries?

Yes, 1.5 million shells in total.

Excellent. will hopefully buy enough time for production in the EU to get up to speed.

[Biffer]

Is that in addition to the ones that have already been financed through a round robin collection of EU countries?

Yes, 1.5 million shells in total.

Excellent. will hopefully buy enough time for production in the EU to get up to speed.

Any idea how many days that translates to at current rates?

[Hellraiser]

Yes, 1.5 million shells in total.

Excellent. will hopefully buy enough time for production in the EU to get up to speed.

Any idea how many days that translates to at current rates?

At the beginning of February the Ukrainians were firing about 2000 shells a day. If they new ammo allows them to triple that to 6000 a day, then 1.5 million shells would last for 9 months just by itself.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

...

And those polling stations which had ink/fire protests on the ballot papers should have those nullified with a new poll run - they won't of course because what's the point when they can just say 90% for Putin regardless...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When discussing strategies for achieving victory, I believe one of the most pragmatic approaches for Ukraine lies in destabilizing Russia's power base, thereby prompting a shift by making this war unprofitable.

Historically, few rulers have maintained power solely through their own efforts, they rely heavily on the support of elites consensus. Such unwritten agreement exists between leaders and elites, wherein those with influence and resources bolster the regime in exchange for obtaining or preserving their own wealth and privileges.

Despite facing Western sanctions, Putin's loyal elites have largely managed to maintain the status quo, with some even increasing their wealth. This perpetuates an unofficial agreement where both sides remain content overall.

In my view, the most effective means of altering this dynamic is to target Russia's key economic assets, a tactic Ukraine partially has begun to employ successfully by attacking oil refineries.

This approach not only disrupts military logistics but also undermines the economic interests of those profiting most from the oil trade.

Intensifying the destruction of strategic assets that yield substantial profits for their owners serves as a potent signal that war is detrimental to business interests. As Ukraine enhances its long-range drone and potentially missile capabilities, the prospect of losing assets, contracts, and facing elevated insurance costs will inevitably lead to conclusion that war is an unprofitable venture for Russia, thereby compelling them to reconsider their stance in future negotiations, if not prompting a shift in power.

The will of the general populace in Russia hold little sway as long as key centers like Moscow and the elites within them can sustain their lifestyle without feeling the toll of war. While this may cause disruptions in global market prices and impact the global economy, in a scenario where Ukraine lacks sufficient aid to decisively end the war in its favor, I see few other practical alternatives.

[tabascoboy]

A long but well thought-out analysis in a series of posts that serves very well as a rebuttal to daft suggestions that stopping military aid to Ukraine would miraculously end the war favourably for everyone ( but for Russia only it would of course)



Full series of text and images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1770 ... 29382.html

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Canadian Chosen Company volunteer doing a walkthrough of a trench assault he was involved in.

Edit: this features the very famous bit of footage of a Russian soldier running into a Ukrainian foxhole then attempting to run back where he came from before being neutralised.

[tabascoboy]

Only very indirectly related to the war itself, but most likely wouldn't have happened if Russia weren't being the a-holes in Europe that they are...saying that of course, it's well known that many RU "trawlers" are operating with little more purpose than naval surveillance and recon.

On March 19, a number of Russian media reported that the Russian Trawler “Captain Lobanov” sank in the Baltic Sea. Preliminarily, due to «an explosion» on board. Now information has appeared in the Russian media that the ship was sunk as a result of a Russian Navy missile accidentally hitting the ship:

«A relative of a crew member of the trawler "Captain Lobanov" confirmed to Dozhd media that the ship was mistakenly hit by a Navy missile

As a result of a missile hitting the fishing trawler Kapitan Lobanov on March 19, three crew members were killed and four more were injured. A relative of one of the crew members told Dozhd media about this.

The missile that hit the trawler was fired during a Baltic Fleet exercise, the source said. Before the incident, the trawler's crew members were about to go to bed when a missile fell on the captain's cabin.

According to official reports from local authorities, there was a fire on board the trawler, and the cause of the incident is still unknown. In addition, authorities report only one death.

“When the survivors were taken away, everyone knew perfectly well that three people had died. And everyone knew perfectly well that a rocket had hit. But they decided to write that there was a “fire.” I wonder what kind of fire this is, if the captain’s cabin is completely gone, it was simply demolished,” says Dozhd’s media source.

The survivors were sent to a hospital in the city of Pionersk; one of the victims is in serious condition. According to the source, at the hospital the victims were interrogated by FSB officers, who asked the crew members “not to talk about the incident.”

Another missile, according to the source, fell into fishing nets near the industrial vessel of the MRTK company, which was located not far from the trawler “Captain Lobanov”.»

[Glaston]

Yanks have told Ukraine "Let the Russian oil flow"
Don't bomb the refineries.
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4 ... dde122ac0c


French have told the Ukrainians not to be mean to the Mulliez family (they own Leroy Merlin and Auchan making big $ by still operating in Russia)
The Austrians have told Ukraine not to be mean to their banks which are making billions in Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pr ... 024-03-21/

[inactionman]

I'm hearing reports that gunmen attacked the Moscow state theatre, and it may have been isis.

But you'd assume usual putin false flag shenanigans

Eta sorry, not state theatre, a different theatre but supposed to have been 6k people in it

May indeed be isis, assume Russia are also being kind and gentle in the middle East.

[Guy Smiley]

I'm hearing reports that gunmen attacked the Moscow state theatre, and it may have been isis.

But you'd assume usual putin false flag shenanigans

Maybe not...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sh ... 024-03-22/

The U.S. embassy in Russia warned earlier this month that "extremists" had imminent plans for an attack in Moscow.
It issued its warning several hours after Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, said it had foiled an attack on a synagogue in Moscow by a cell of the militant Sunni Muslim group Islamic State.

[tabascoboy]

Russian security services reportedly searching for three individuals from Ingushetia, a Russian federal republic in the North Caucasus, in relation to the attack.
...
Russian Vchk-OGPU telegram reports security forces looking for 3 men from Ingushetiya: Gurajev Amirkhan 1989, Adam Ozdoev 1987, Tsuroev Zelimkhan 2000.

Eyewitnesses also reporting that shooters were either from Caucasus or Central Asia, speaking non-Russian

[Calculon]

What a shame, terrorist attack a terrorist state

[tabascoboy]

Well, now they arrested 4 suspects in Bryansk region who are Tajiks...

1. Makhmadrasul Nasridinov, 37yrs old
2. Rivozhidin Ismonov, 51yrs old
3. Shokhinjonn Safolzoda, 21yrs old
4. Rustam Nazarov, 29yrs old.

Didn't take long for this narrative to spring up

As we've recently been reporting, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has issued a statement claiming that the terrorists involved in the Moscow Crocus City attack were planning to cross the border with Ukraine, and that they had "contacts" on the Ukrainian side.

[Raggs]

Ukraine is not only Nazis but ISIS too!

[sockwithaticket]

Yanks have told Ukraine "Let the Russian oil flow"
Don't bomb the refineries.
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4 ... dde122ac0c


French have told the Ukrainians not to be mean to the Mulliez family (they own Leroy Merlin and Auchan making big $ by still operating in Russia)
The Austrians have told Ukraine not to be mean to their banks which are making billions in Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pr ... 024-03-21/

Fake news according to the Ukrainians.

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the office of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the government has not received calls from the United States asking Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/2 ... s-00148673

[tabascoboy]

Ukraine is not only Nazis but ISIS too!

ISIS Nazis based in Ukraine, funded by the US/NATO with operational assistance from Mossad. It's on #twatter so it must be true!

So much for the Kremlin's very open support for Hamas in the last few months

[tabascoboy]

The whole thread of tweets + images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1771 ... =topunroll ( has one graphic image, but sanitised )

[Uncle fester]

RDT_20240323_2122088783548822797183386.jpg (285.52 KiB) Viewed 1612 times

[Ymx]

Hope this gets the attention it deserves

[petej]

Hope this gets the attention it deserves

Deeply suspicious of this sort of stuff. Particularly, coming from Russia with putin keen to direct the narrative.

[Ymx]

Well I just hoped it could just be one good story to come out of this vile ISIS Islamist massacre.

[Calculon]

Well I just hoped it could just be one good story to come out of this vile ISIS Islamist massacre.

the good story is that this terrorist attack weakens Russia by diverting security resources away from countering pro-Ukraine activities in Russia and occupied Ukraine. the good news is that the success of this attack might inspire further attacks by the Islamist/separatist , the good news story is that it shows the incompetence of the Russian security services and shows Putin as weak. the good news is not some potentially fake story from a dodgy twitter account

[sockwithaticket]

Also, why would the west share that story?

Reporting on terrorist attacks from any country not your own tends to focus very specifically on:
- location
- bodycount
- perpetrator(s)/group claiming responsibility

It's headline stuff, anything extra is extraneous detail for anyone not in the country where the incident occurred and won't get picked up internationally by the big media outlets/mainstream press.

Additional 'feel good' stuff about the actions of people on the ground tends only to feature in local national press.



Anywho, Ukraine say they've sunk another couple of Russian landing ships, Yamal and Azov, while they were docked in Sevastopol. Black Seas Fleet 'infrastructure facilities' were also targeted.

[Blackmac]

Did anyone else see 'Ukraine: Enemy in the woods' last night. Quite incredible, no holds barred, body cam footage from the front line. A very hard watch.

[TheNatalShark]

We've now got scheduled blackouts in Kharkiv whilst they work on repairing the electrical grid. Load shedding prepared well.

But Russians really did whack the infrastructure here, lots of power being transmitted in as the main sources have been knocked out and won't be online for months, if not a year depending on financing.

Last night very loud again with either a recon or shahed drone above for about 20 minutes whilst AA knocked out the other drones targeting substations not yet hit... including one just across the road from me. Makes finding a new one (preferably not previously shelled) a little higher up the priority list!

[Brazil]

Did anyone else see 'Ukraine: Enemy in the woods' last night. Quite incredible, no holds barred, body cam footage from the front line. A very hard watch.

Yes, very surprising what they showed, even with faces blurred out. Was striking that for all the advances in comms and technology, it's not that different from war fighting in WW2 when it gets down to it.

[Margin__Walker]

Did anyone else see 'Ukraine: Enemy in the woods' last night. Quite incredible, no holds barred, body cam footage from the front line. A very hard watch.

Yep. Pretty unimaginable really. Must be incredibly hard to keep facing each day with no end in sight

The small drone element especially is a really hellish addition to modern warfare.

[Blackmac]

Did anyone else see 'Ukraine: Enemy in the woods' last night. Quite incredible, no holds barred, body cam footage from the front line. A very hard watch.

Yep. Pretty unimaginable really. Must be incredibly hard to keep facing each day with no end in sight

The small drone element especially is a really hellish addition to modern warfare.

Yeah. No place to hide and it must be terrifying seeing the FPV drones flying towards you.

[Hellraiser]

​​Rheinmetall will receive 130 million euros from the European Union to expand ammunition production

The Rheinmetall concern reports that it plans to produce up to 1.1 million artillery shells per year by 2027. In addition, starting in 2026, the concern plans to annually produce up to 1.5 million rocket fuel modules and 3,000 tons of RDX explosives.

Also, Rheinmetall plans to launch at least four plants on the territory of Ukraine.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU

[Hellraiser]

Germany announced the transfer of a large package of military assistance to Ukraine

It will include:

- 5 tracked repair and recovery vehicles Warthog;
- 9 tracked Warthog all-terrain command vehicles;
- 6 WISENT 1 mine clearance vehicles;
- 2 BEAVER bridge laying machines;
- engineers of ARV Bergepanzer 2 and ARV 2A1 Dachs;
- 9 mine trawls;
- 3 vehicles for border protection;
- 6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros tankers;
- 14 Vector reconnaissance UAVs;
- 30 reconnaissance UAVs RQ-35 Heidrun;
- 5 drone jammers;
- ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks;
- 18,000 155 mm ammunition;
- SATCOM surveillance system;
- 330 infrared cameras;
- 2,056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers;
- 70 GMG grenade launchers.

The government website reported that missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 20 Marder armored combat vehicles and other equipment are also being prepared for Ukraine.

What's going on in Ukraine?

[weegie01]

Germany announced the transfer of a large package of military assistance to Ukraine

It will include:

- 5 tracked repair and recovery vehicles Warthog;
- 9 tracked Warthog all-terrain command vehicles;
- 6 WISENT 1 mine clearance vehicles;
- 2 BEAVER bridge laying machines;
- engineers of ARV Bergepanzer 2 and ARV 2A1 Dachs;
- 9 mine trawls;
- 3 vehicles for border protection;
- 6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros tankers;
- 14 Vector reconnaissance UAVs;
- 30 reconnaissance UAVs RQ-35 Heidrun;
- 5 drone jammers;
- ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks;
- 18,000 155 mm ammunition;
- SATCOM surveillance system;
- 330 infrared cameras;
- 2,056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers;
- 70 GMG grenade launchers.

The government website reported that missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 20 Marder armored combat vehicles and other equipment are also being prepared for Ukraine.

What's going on in Ukraine?

That looks like a fairly random list of items to me. Does anyone knoe if that is what Ukraine has asked for to fill gaps in its armoury, or just what the Germans have lying around and can spare?

[Calculon]

Germany announced the transfer of a large package of military assistance to Ukraine

It will include:

- 5 tracked repair and recovery vehicles Warthog;
- 9 tracked Warthog all-terrain command vehicles;
- 6 WISENT 1 mine clearance vehicles;
- 2 BEAVER bridge laying machines;
- engineers of ARV Bergepanzer 2 and ARV 2A1 Dachs;
- 9 mine trawls;
- 3 vehicles for border protection;
- 6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros tankers;
- 14 Vector reconnaissance UAVs;
- 30 reconnaissance UAVs RQ-35 Heidrun;
- 5 drone jammers;
- ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks;
- 18,000 155 mm ammunition;
- SATCOM surveillance system;
- 330 infrared cameras;
- 2,056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers;
- 70 GMG grenade launchers.

The government website reported that missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 20 Marder armored combat vehicles and other equipment are also being prepared for Ukraine.

What's going on in Ukraine?

That looks like a fairly random list of items to me. Does anyone knoe if that is what Ukraine has asked for to fill gaps in its armoury, or just what the Germans have lying around and can spare?

That all looks like very useful equipment. I would be absolutely amazed if the Germans, or any other country for that matter, sends stuff the Ukrainians didn't ask for and did
not want.

[Hellraiser]

Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost over 200 IFVs (including APCs) in March given there are still 3 and a half days left of March and the time it takes to process and upload losses, this month will likely have more IFV losses than any since 2022. Tanks and other types - not so much.

I should have stated, that all this data is from WarSpotting.net The key change is that in March the ratio of tank losses to IFVs has dramatically changed compared to other months, see below, The Blue line is each month's ratio, the Red line is the average ratio for first 25 months.