Stop voting for fucking Tories

[dpedin]

And predictably it's proving divisive

Natalie Elphicke: Keir Starmer faces Labour anger after Tory MP's defection

Sir Keir Starmer's decision to admit Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into Labour has been met with bewilderment by some of his MPs. The Dover MP's surprise defection from the Conservatives has prompted reaction ranging from delight to anger by her new colleagues.

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield said Labour MPs were "baffled" by her "really peculiar" move to swap sides. But a senior party figure hailed her switch as "one hell of a coup". And Sir Keir has said he is "delighted" with her defection, telling reporters it showed his party was "the party of the national interest".

Several sources suggested Labour's whips, responsible for party discipline, were worried about accepting her, but Labour deny this.
...
As well as her political stance, many Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable with remarks she made about her then-husband Charlie Elphicke, whom she replaced as Dover MP in 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68980700

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

[SaintK]

Another one jumps ship!!
Will probably be remembered for lying about his tax affairs and being sacked more than anything else.
This weeks Private Eye reporting that there was a major push locally to deselect him in his Stratford constituency so maybe he jumped?

Nadhim Zahawi to stand down as MP at next general election
MP for Stratford-on-Avon, former chancellor and Conservative party chair will not seek re-election

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ar ... lection

[David in Gwent]

And predictably it's proving divisive

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

So what you're saying is that Sunak is racist in terms of Khan?

[epwc]

Sunak's party has accepted openly Islamophobic comments at every level of the party structure, so maybe he is?

[tabascoboy]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

[epwc]

That would be cool, but my MP is one of the 13

[Biffer]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

The worst case is that projection with the different projection for Scotland. Then they'll be in single figures.

[Insane_Homer]

Defect.jpg (112.31 KiB) Viewed 1753 times

[Paddington Bear]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

[_Os_]

The New Statesman's seat prediction model looks like the best, when the latest Yougov numbers are plugged in it gives 46 Tory MPs.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/b ... held-today

Yougov is the best political polling company in the UK, those numbers should be taken seriously. The problem with using it to model seats, is at the low levels the Tories are polling margins between very different outcomes are fine. The margin of error (usually 3%-ish), would get the Tories above 20% and still be within the tolerances of the poll (I haven't checked the methodology on that poll, but it probably looks like that). In terms of seats there's a big difference between 15%, 18%, and 21%. This is something the Lib Dems face every GE, if they get 5 or 10 seats everyone thinks they've done badly and if they get 50 everyone thinks they've done quite well, when the difference between those results isn't actually all that much. To avoid this the Tories need to improve their polling, if they remain around where the Lib Dems usually are then a Lib Dems type result is logical.

I think the Tories get over 20% of the vote and take 130-160 seats. Though it does look more likely they collapse a little further and do worse, than improving and doing better than that.

[tabascoboy]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...really can't see Tories being unseated in my constituency though

[Biffer]

The New Statesman's seat prediction model looks like the best, when the latest Yougov numbers are plugged in it gives 46 Tory MPs.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/b ... held-today

Yougov is the best political polling company in the UK, those numbers should be taken seriously. The problem with using it to model seats, is at the low levels the Tories are polling margins between very different outcomes are fine. The margin of error (usually 3%-ish), would get the Tories above 20% and still be within the tolerances of the poll (I haven't checked the methodology on that poll, but it probably looks like that). In terms of seats there's a big difference between 15%, 18%, and 21%. This is something the Lib Dems face every GE, if they get 5 or 10 seats everyone thinks they've done badly and if they get 50 everyone thinks they've done quite well, when the difference between those results isn't actually all that much. To avoid this the Tories need to improve their polling, if they remain around where the Lib Dems usually are then a Lib Dems type result is logical.

I think the Tories get over 20% of the vote and take 130-160 seats. Though it does look more likely they collapse a little further and do worse, than improving and doing better than that.

Yeah, there's probably a hundred seats where it's less than a thousand votes in it on that model, and incumbents will usually win those. Although a lot of tories in safe seats aren't standing for re-election so some of that incumbent advantage goes away.

[_Os_]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

[Paddington Bear]

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

[_Os_]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

GE "don't knows" have been slowly going down in Yougov polling since March, from 18% to 14% (have not seen the detailed report for the latest poll).

I don't think Canada result is possible. But the difference between 50 seats, or 100, or 150, isn't as much as it seems. The Tories need to be at least around 25% to avoid the worst.

[inactionman]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

I no longer live in that neck of the woods, but I'll be glad to see the back of Rees Mogg.

He's been voted in as MP for NE Somerset for, what, 15 years now? That's a long, long time to be represented by an over-privileged, unsympathetic and disrespectful haunted pencil

[sockwithaticket]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

I no longer live in that neck of the woods, but I'll be glad to see the back of Rees Mogg.

He's been voted in as MP for NE Somerset for, what, 15 years now? That's a long, long time to be represented by an over-privileged, unsympathetic and disrespectful haunted pencil

Even my distressingly right wing uncle wants rid of the wannabe-Victorian ghoul. Hopefully he ends up banished along with the rest.

[I like neeps]

And predictably it's proving divisive

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

Two key problems with this:

Vindictiveness yes, as all her tribe of Tories are, not just for boats issue. For the booting out Truss and Johnson issue. Now remind me, what are your views on Truss/Johnson, the ERG and their cabal of cheerleading MPs dpedin? I don't remember it being particularly positive.

Sunak has focused on culture war issues to his detriment... I can't help but think of a particular MP who has spent the last few years egging that on.

[sturginho]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

[David in Gwent]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Sometimes, just sometimes, if an MP has done a good job for the people in the constituency then they get voted for. It's an old tradition of the UKs.

[Lobby]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

I'd say the massive change in the result against earlier polling was largely down to Theresa May's disastrous election campaign, probably one of the worst campaigns ever run by a major party. Her advisors thought the election was a foregone conclusion and they decided their headline policy was going to be the Dementia Tax. May was also dreadful herself, refusing to appear on any of the hustings and appearing extremely awkward and robotic every time she interviewed.

Corbyn also ran a very effective campaign, which shouldn't have been a surprise. Campaigning was the one thing he was good at. The very low polling numbers for Labour also made it seem almost like a 'safe' protest vote. Because people thought he was never going to win, even people who were unsure about Corbyn felt OK about voting Labour. In the following election when Corbyn's Labour was considered as a more serious threat to the Government they were hammered in the election.

[Tichtheid]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

[David in Gwent]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

[Tichtheid]

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

Why ask the question if you don't want an answer?

[Tichtheid]

However, without checking the detail, I think the terminology is that I'm a British citizen rather than a UK citizen.

[David in Gwent]

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

Why ask the question if you don't want an answer?

Because ultimately I don't care that much. But thanks.

[Tichtheid]

what a fucking knob.

[David in Gwent]

what a fucking knob.

Harsh, but fair.

[SaintK]

what a fucking knob.

Far too kind

[JM2K6]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

Labour people didn't really have anyone else to vote for after the Lib Dems shit the bed. The Tories have some actual competition and Labour themselves are offering policies that appeal to a lot of Tory voters. The "hate the idea of a Labour government" lot are not a large percentage as it stands - it's essentially the Tory ride-or-die types who are literally the only people voting for them, and even then they're splitting their vote with the further-right groups.

[Paddington Bear]

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

Labour people didn't really have anyone else to vote for after the Lib Dems shit the bed. The Tories have some actual competition and Labour themselves are offering policies that appeal to a lot of Tory voters. The "hate the idea of a Labour government" lot are not a large percentage as it stands - it's essentially the Tory ride-or-die types who are literally the only people voting for them, and even then they're splitting their vote with the further-right groups.

We’ll see. I don’t think the election will be close, but I think total Tory wipeout predictions verge on fantasy

[Enzedder]

Does this thread have a purpose any more? Are there any Tory voters anywhere? (At least ones who admit it)

[Biffer]

Does this thread have a purpose any more? Are there any Tory voters anywhere? (At least ones who admit it)

Around one in five people are self declared Tories. At least half of that again are not voting for them because they're not far enough right. That's nearly one in three people in the UK

It still has a purpose.

[Biffer]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Sometimes, just sometimes, if an MP has done a good job for the people in the constituency then they get voted for. It's an old tradition of the UKs.

None of that projection is on a seat by seat basis. It's projected a uniform UK swing into Scottish seats,without any accomodation for the SNP / Alba / Greens so the projection is flat wrong.absolutely no way the Tories have six seats after the next ge.

[sturginho]

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

Labour people didn't really have anyone else to vote for after the Lib Dems shit the bed. The Tories have some actual competition and Labour themselves are offering policies that appeal to a lot of Tory voters. The "hate the idea of a Labour government" lot are not a large percentage as it stands - it's essentially the Tory ride-or-die types who are literally the only people voting for them, and even then they're splitting their vote with the further-right groups.

We’ll see. I don’t think the election will be close, but I think total Tory wipeout predictions verge on fantasy

We can dream, it'd be no less than they deserve

[sturginho]

It's sometimes hard to tell the difference between satire and actual government policy

[David in Gwent]

The March to zero tory seats continues.

It's going to be a fucking shit show in 2028 when the people realise that every party is shit and in it for the Globalists, not the people.

Fun times ahead.

[David in Gwent]

Lets see how well DAC's right wing populist uprising is going. Oh ...

What Right Wing populist uprising? Do you mean the one where the Tories smashed Labour everywhere and then the Tories did the practical opposite of what everyone voted for.......which is now seeing their demise?

Or are you just talking nonsense as per.

[C69]

So Wes Streeting has been in dialogue with more Tory MPs over possible defections.
This really is getting quite bizarre now.
I expect to see Sunak saying it's all going to plan again soon.
The inertia from Government is doing the UK a disservice.

[David in Gwent]

So Wes Streeting has been in dialogue with more Tory MPs over possible defections.
This really is getting quite bizarre now.
I expect to see Sunak saying it's all going to plan again soon.
The inertia from Government is doing the UK a disservice.

It's so much of an utter shambles that I can only believe it's on purpose, like they're waiting to be told what to do.