Saffers

[Sards]

Western Cape is definitely the preffered destination for high net worth individuals.
And battlers looking for a better life with more prospects.
Yes , property prices are skyrocketing. Which is great if you want to invest money in your home to make it better to live in.. You won't over capitalise. We spent a good chunk on preparing our home for the Cape winter. And boy are we happy about that investment. But now we really have no reason to look for another home or to sell. Baby Boomers rock. We all bought cheap.
The Eastern Cape and Gauteng refugees irritate me. Most of them already have homes in their rerspective home provinces already , and are looking for homes here too.

The province has already laid the foundation for a breakaway referendum if things go pear shaped North and East, with most DA supporters having said they would buy in.. So although there is risk involved with whatever route the ANC takes in a coalition in South Africa , we can shelter ourselves from it.

The Uneconomic Freedom Front is a home that suites layabouts not prepared to work for themselves. Its all free. They can just vokof

[_Os_]

The SACP has said it wants a minority ANC government supported by elements of GNU but excluding the DA and MK.

That is a very round about way of saying they want the ANC to govern without a coalition through the support of the EFF.

The SACP is very important in the internal workings of the ANC. What they say is often what happens.

Chances of a good outcome are now hugely reduced.

ANC minority government that depends on the EFF, would be a kak outcome. It's the ANC's funeral if they go with that. Will deliver fokkol and mean even less votes for them.

The ANC is nothing but predictable. They are going with a version of that SACP proposal.

They want a GNU. Unclear if it's a GNU coalition (all parties are in government), or an ANC minority government supported by a GNU confidence and supply (only the ANC would be in government, DA would be the official opposition).

Thing is this doesn't work. The EFF and MK are mini versions of the ANC, they agree on almost everything. So a GNU ends up being ANC-SACP-EFF-MK. In other words everything that has already failed. The DA would be ignored and there would be no reform. They're hardly going to say "yes we agree with the DA, cadre deployment should end".

The DA is going to have no real say in this thing. If it means giving up being the opposition then it shouldn't accept this ANC proposal, it would be in a GNU where it has no say and would be implicated in the failure of that government, meanwhile another party would be the official opposition and get media exposure etc.

If the DA joins the GNU and never quits and it turns out there's no reforms and it's a mess. But the FF+ and other small parties stay out, then it's easy pickings for them taking DA voters.

Once the DA walks out of this stupidity. Then the ANC is in a coalition with EFF and MK trying to claim it's a GNU, and good luck to them with the markets and economy.

[_Os_]

Also, time is running out on the process. ANC lateness isn't helping, it's taken them days to choose a GNU position, they've hardly spoken to other parties.

The ANC now has a week to negotiate a GNU where all the parties are happy with the ministries they receive (if all the parties are in government) and the policy platform. This means pleasing multiple parties rather than just one.

Parliament elects the president in a week, MPs elect the president not voters (majority of MPs needed), if this negotiation collapses and all the parties vote for their own party leader there is no president. My understanding is there then has to be a fresh election asap.

[_Os_]

This is really interesting, some polling on which coalition outcome people prefer. ANC-DA way out ahead on 40%. ANC-MK and ANC-EFF far lower and close to what MK and EFF have got individually, in other words ANC voters aren't interested in those coalitions.

This is line with other polling I've seen, where the DA is the second choice party for a massive amount of ANC voters.

It gives a guide on what will happen to the ANC if they fuck this all up. Could lose half their remaining support.

(also worth looking at the comments on this tweet, polling comprehensively proven correct this election, still morons that think polling is lies because it's not reflecting what they personally believe ... done properly polling is scientific and not made up)

[_Os_]

The EFF and MK think the GNU is a ruse and will be an ANC-DA coalition in reality, looks like they may pull out.

The DA have released their non-negotiables. There's things not on that list (BEE) so it's a serious list with concessions and not a pretext to walking out. The list does rule out EFF/MK being in the same coalition with the DA though, unless EFF/MK make massive concessions.

The ANC has refused to pick, called for a GNU. And on day 1 finds out it must pick between the DA/MK/EFF.

Tick tock, time running out, 10 days left.

[Blake]

Typical spineless, dithering by the ANC.

They are just wholly incapable of achieving anything complex within a fixed time-frame; partly because of how rigid and bureaucratic their structures are, partly how many interest groups they try to appease, and partly because of how weak their leadership is.

They will have nothing in place by the deadline. Another election would be very interesting.

[Blake]

This is really interesting, some polling on which coalition outcome people prefer. ANC-DA way out ahead on 40%. ANC-MK and ANC-EFF far lower and close to what MK and EFF have got individually, in other words ANC voters aren't interested in those coalitions.

This is line with other polling I've seen, where the DA is the second choice party for a massive amount of ANC voters.

It gives a guide on what will happen to the ANC if they fuck this all up. Could lose half their remaining support.

(also worth looking at the comments on this tweet, polling comprehensively proven correct this election, still morons that think polling is lies because it's not reflecting what they personally believe ... done properly polling is scientific and not made up)

I have to admit I have been very impressed by the South African polling in this election.

I think the poor performance of pollsters in the USA particularly, soured me somewhat on the practice, but the amazing work done by the South African polling institutions was very, very good.

[_Os_]

Typical spineless, dithering by the ANC.

They are just wholly incapable of achieving anything complex within a fixed time-frame; partly because of how rigid and bureaucratic their structures are, partly how many interest groups they try to appease, and partly because of how weak their leadership is.

They will have nothing in place by the deadline. Another election would be very interesting.

If they want a real GNU, then it's a fuck up and cannot happen before the deadline. Something like that would take months to negotiate.

If they want a GNU that's really a ANC-DA coalition, that's doable in a week. The DA negotiating team is all the DA's strongest. They've done this before in opposition (NNP), local level (CT and elsewhere), outside SA (UK). The DA position looks thought through going by what I can see of it. The ANC can be useless and still load this version of the GNU because the DA is doing all the work.

If they want a GNU that's really some dodgy deal with EFF/MK. Then good fucking luck to them, the DA will not be part of that. Could also be done quite quickly because if EFF/MK are up for it, it'll be about dividing up jobs/ministries/money in return for supporting the ANC.

Quite unbelievable we're a week in and they still haven't made a choice. In fact this GNU thing has added more choices.

[Blake]

Typical spineless, dithering by the ANC.

They are just wholly incapable of achieving anything complex within a fixed time-frame; partly because of how rigid and bureaucratic their structures are, partly how many interest groups they try to appease, and partly because of how weak their leadership is.

They will have nothing in place by the deadline. Another election would be very interesting.

If they want a real GNU, then it's a fuck up and cannot happen before the deadline. Something like that would take months to negotiate.

If they want to have a pretend GNU that's really a ANC-DA coalition, that's doable in a week. The DA negotiating team is all the DA's strongest. They've done this before in opposition (NNP), local level (CT and elsewhere), outside SA (UK). The DA position looks thought through going by what I can see of it. The ANC can be useless and still load this version of the GNU because the DA is doing all the work.

If they want a GNU that's really some dodgy deal with EFF/MK. Then good fucking luck to them, the DA will not be part of that. Could also be done quite quickly because if EFF/MK are up for it, it'll be about dividing up jobs/ministries/money in return for supporting the ANC.

Quite unbelievable we're a week and they still haven't made a choice. In fact this GNU thing has added more choices.

The GNU-thing is a clusterfuck. It'll be a shitshow that will collapse as soon as the other parties start making their demands.
MK will want Ramaphosa out. EFF will want Malema as VP and Shivambu as minister of finance.

With those demands the ANC might as well go full coalition with them.

A half baked GNU will collapse with a vote of no confidence in 6 months from their the EFF or MK and the ANC will have to come crawling hat in hand to the DA to bail them out...which they might do. The ANC is probably banking on it, just like in the US where the Republicans keep hoping the Democrats will save them from the crazies in their own party.

A better case scenario would be another election and the ANC losing even more support in that time. It'll cost us 90 days and maybe save us 5 years of pain.

[_Os_]

Typical spineless, dithering by the ANC.

They are just wholly incapable of achieving anything complex within a fixed time-frame; partly because of how rigid and bureaucratic their structures are, partly how many interest groups they try to appease, and partly because of how weak their leadership is.

They will have nothing in place by the deadline. Another election would be very interesting.

If they want a real GNU, then it's a fuck up and cannot happen before the deadline. Something like that would take months to negotiate.

If they want to have a pretend GNU that's really a ANC-DA coalition, that's doable in a week. The DA negotiating team is all the DA's strongest. They've done this before in opposition (NNP), local level (CT and elsewhere), outside SA (UK). The DA position looks thought through going by what I can see of it. The ANC can be useless and still load this version of the GNU because the DA is doing all the work.

If they want a GNU that's really some dodgy deal with EFF/MK. Then good fucking luck to them, the DA will not be part of that. Could also be done quite quickly because if EFF/MK are up for it, it'll be about dividing up jobs/ministries/money in return for supporting the ANC.

Quite unbelievable we're a week and they still haven't made a choice. In fact this GNU thing has added more choices.

The GNU-thing is a clusterfuck. I'll be a shitshow that will collapse as soon as the other parties start making their demands.
MK will want Ramaphosa out. EFF will want Malema as VP and Shivambu as minister of finance.

With those demands the ANC might as well go full coalition with them.

A half baked GNU will collapse with a vote of no confidence in 6 months from their the EFF or MK and the ANC will have to come crawling hat in hand to the DA to bail them out...which they might do. The ANC is probably banking on it, just like in the US where the Republicans keep hoping the Democrats will save them from the crazies in their own party.

A better case scenario would be another election and the ANC losing even more support in that time. It'll cost us 90 days and maybe save us 5 years of pain.

In some dystopian alternate reality ...

The ANC and all their committees which fill entire auditoriums like something out of communist China, and the SACP and their little cabals, and COSATU and their constant protests, and SANCO which everyone forgets but just parrots COSATU, and all the factions within all of this. All debate and deliberate and never reach a final choice. Time always runs out. A fresh election is always called. And voters staunchly rock up and vote ANC because they can never vote DA under any circumstances ("whites!", "apartheid will come back!", "a luta continua!"). And that's how it ends, a perfect loop.

[Blake]

In some dystopian alternate reality ...

The ANC and all their committees which fill entire auditoriums like something out of communist China, and the SACP and their little cabals, and COSATU and their constant protests, and SANCO which everyone forgets but just parrots COSATU, and all the factions within all of this. All debate and deliberate and never reach a final choice. Time always runs out. A fresh election is always called. And voters staunchly rock up and vote ANC because they can never vote DA under any circumstances ("whites!", "apartheid will come back!", "a luta continua!"). And that's how it ends, a perfect loop.

To some extent that has been what the last 5 years has been like anyway.

They still haven't managed to phase out analog terrestrial television to free up more electromagnetic spectrum for the cellular network providers after a more than a fucking decade.
The power stations that were started in 2012 to save us from load shedding are still not fully operational.
These idiots can't accomplish anything complex.

But yeah, more chefs in this dysfunctional kitchen will probably grind everything to even more of a standstill.

[Sards]

Starting to take Blake a bit more serious...

[_Os_]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

What businesses are you currently in Sardy?

I thought the manufacturing/metal bashing was still going and the restaurant was closed down?

[Sards]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

What businesses are you currently in Sardy?

I thought the manufacturing/metal bashing was still going and the restaurant was closed down?

No we closed the restaurant to focus on the manufacturing. Both needed focus and we couldn't split it. We weren't in trouble or needed to pay any creditors or debt. Our lease expired and we had to make a decision. The fact that I want to semi retire didn't help as we need to focus on succession or I won't have a pension. The factory just makes more money by far. So the missus is the senior partner with me and my key staff member has shares and in 8 years my eldest son will be ready to assist. But it was a great experience for us. We are more connected to the industry and play much more of a consultancy role for our clients. Just Friday we received a call from a restaurant group that wants my wife and I to assist in franchising one of their assets. Because of our experience and having the factory behind us. And because of what we have done with the Fancy Frank's group. And the kids aren't interested in the restaurant industry. But the eldest is interested in the factory

[_Os_]

In some dystopian alternate reality ...

The ANC and all their committees which fill entire auditoriums like something out of communist China, and the SACP and their little cabals, and COSATU and their constant protests, and SANCO which everyone forgets but just parrots COSATU, and all the factions within all of this. All debate and deliberate and never reach a final choice. Time always runs out. A fresh election is always called. And voters staunchly rock up and vote ANC because they can never vote DA under any circumstances ("whites!", "apartheid will come back!", "a luta continua!"). And that's how it ends, a perfect loop.

To some extent that has been what the last 5 years has been like anyway.

They still haven't managed to phase out analog terrestrial television to free up more electromagnetic spectrum for the cellular network providers after a more than a fucking decade.
The power stations that were started in 2012 to save us from load shedding are still not fully operational.
These idiots can't accomplish anything complex.

But yeah, more chefs in this dysfunctional kitchen will probably grind everything to even more of a standstill.

Both of those are in the DA's initial conditions, under "Operation Vulindlela" that's one of the ANC's many many many plans, that one is run from Ramaphosa's office in the presidency and has gone nowhere. Clever from the DA, look through ANC plans, pick out the best bits and then say that's what you want.

Sardy's wish to end cadre deployment is second on the list, improving the public service. "full independent public service commission" and "distinction between political and public service posts".

It looks really good, and even if it's the DA working alone and turns out to be hard, there's still some good that will come. Devolution of powers, means Western Cape and CT gets to run its rail service and CT metro police can investigate gangs. Port concessioning (privatisation) and skilled visa reform should be a lock in too.

The bad is nothing on BEE/AA but that could resurface later. If the DA can grow it definitely will.

[_Os_]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

What businesses are you currently in Sardy?

I thought the manufacturing/metal bashing was still going and the restaurant was closed down?

No we closed the restaurant to focus on the manufacturing. Both needed focus and we couldn't split it. We weren't in trouble or needed to pay any creditors or debt. Our lease expired and we had to make a decision. The fact that I want to semi retire didn't help as we need to focus on succession or I won't have a pension. The factory just makes more money by far. So the missus is the senior partner with me and my key staff member has shares and in 8 years my eldest son will be ready to assist. But it was a great experience for us. We are more connected to the industry and play much more of a consultancy role for our clients. Just Friday we received a call from a restaurant group that wants my wife and I to assist in franchising one of their assets. Because of our experience and having the factory behind us. And because of what we have done with the Fancy Frank's group. And the kids aren't interested in the restaurant industry. But the eldest is interested in the factory

Good stuff Sardy!

Probably used the wrong language with "closed down", I knew you were continuing with the manufacturing but not the restaurant. Always shitloads of money in consulting, the doors start opening when you can combine more than one related skill/experience it puts you ahead of nearly everyone else. You must have experience and knowledge of the whole supply chain for industrial/restaurant kitchen equipment now, from manufacturing to end user? Good to know everything is going well.

[Sards]

MK being the new naughty kid in the class.

Oh well. I suspect they have done their homework.
The EFF showed how being the bad boys buys you votes inI South Africa.
Probably going to absorb the EFF one day

[_Os_]

The DA is a peepee party, always have been always will be. They are doomed to be the opposition and will never lead this country. They have never won an election, not in the apartheid years and not now because they are a liberal party and this is a country with a nationalist identity.

How SA politics has worked so far, is every generation there's a dominant party, and that party implements its full programme. It's then replaced by a party with a similar but also completely different programme.

The first lot were Smuts and the SAP then the United Party, when you boil it all down their main policy was to be pro-British Empire in the hope it would benefit SA, it was mostly a failure. The second lot were the Afrikaner nationalists and the Nat's apartheid, a giant failure. The third lot were the African nationalists and the ANC's BEE and other policies, again it's turning out to be mostly a failure.

So far history says if a party is in second place when the switch happens to a new governing party, then that party ends up leading for a generation. So far the history also says always the governing party ends up mostly a failure.

The ANC is clearly not interested in applying the brakes as it drives over the cliff. Ramphosa got talked up, still lost the ANC votes in 2019 and still no reform either. So if no party ever challenges the DA, then one way or another (probably in a coalition) the DA it is.

Bringing up ancient history were black people had no say won't help you now. Fact is the largest demographic in this country is impoverished blacks. You are going nowhere with out them and they will never vote DA. I wont be surprised if the DA loses ground in the next few elections. Especially after Steenhuisen outings about the DA joining the ANC if Ramaphosa sticks around.

I've been thinking about this exchange with AJ back in July 2021. I said back then the DA would be in government through a coalition. Wasn't always sure of that, ANC-EFF-PA looked more likely two or three weeks ago.

The context is important. Quite a bit of my family had defended Westville earlier that month, a lot of what happened still hasn't come out and never will. We're talking riding shotgun with the small amount of police up for the fight, barricading access from the N3 using bakkies, defending Westville hospital in a gun battle through the night against heavily armed recon teams. It would've been really easy to decide "SA is fucked", I still believed SA would make it.

Three generations of my family have voted but never for the party which formed the government, until now. We're now in the best case scenario, I still don't think it has sunk in with most people that this could change everything. If it works the improvement be will quicker than many imagine maybe a different country in 10 years, if it doesn't work it'll be because the ANC doesn't want it to a lot of the fixes are obvious. Most of SA's problems are political and don't need to exist.

[Sards]

So what is the current situation. Where do we stand.....in a nutshell

[Sards]

What I can gather

"Spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela tells reporters that the MK party will join the alliance called the “Progressive Caucus”, which includes the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the United Democratic Movement.

This alliance commands close to 30% of the seats in the National Assembly, Ndhlela says.

“This united effort is necessary because the 2024 election has also resulted in the consolidation of right-wing and reactionary forces who are opposed to economic freedom, radical economic transformation, racial equality and land repossession,” he says "

There are 2 opposing Caucasus's

The ANCA , DA and IFP

Vs

MK , EFF and UDM

[average joe]

All I can make out of this is there's going to be shit in Natal again and if it's not contained it will boil over to other provinces.

The GNU can be "a good thing" if done right but so far, it's all been about the ANC and what they've done. All the top positions have gone to them. It seems the DA is sucking on the hind tit a bit.

Whatever happens in the next 5 years will determine which party survives. It all depends on who gets the credit when things get fixed and who gets the blame when things go to shit. The ANC and the DA are polar opposites and I reckon there's going to be a clash of heads soon. Whichever party gives too many concessions on their policies will bleed votes come the next election. I can't help thinking back to what happened to kort broek van Schalkwyk and the NNP back when they aligned with the ANC.

But we all hope, wait and see, I guess.

[assfly]

All I can make out of this is there's going to be shit in Natal again and if it's not contained it will boil over to other provinces.

The GNU can be "a good thing" if done right but so far, it's all been about the ANC and what they've done. All the top positions have gone to them. It seems the DA is sucking on the hind tit a bit.

Whatever happens in the next 5 years will determine which party survives. It all depends on who gets the credit when things get fixed and who gets the blame when things go to shit. The ANC and the DA are polar opposites and I reckon there's going to be a clash of heads soon. Whichever party gives too many concessions on their policies will bleed votes come the next election. I can't help thinking back to what happened to kort broek van Schalkwyk and the NNP back when they aligned with the ANC.

But we all hope, wait and see, I guess.

Where are you getting your updates from?

It's still a much better picture than two weeks ago.

[average joe]

All I can make out of this is there's going to be shit in Natal again and if it's not contained it will boil over to other provinces.

The GNU can be "a good thing" if done right but so far, it's all been about the ANC and what they've done. All the top positions have gone to them. It seems the DA is sucking on the hind tit a bit.

Whatever happens in the next 5 years will determine which party survives. It all depends on who gets the credit when things get fixed and who gets the blame when things go to shit. The ANC and the DA are polar opposites and I reckon there's going to be a clash of heads soon. Whichever party gives too many concessions on their policies will bleed votes come the next election. I can't help thinking back to what happened to kort broek van Schalkwyk and the NNP back when they aligned with the ANC.

But we all hope, wait and see, I guess.

Where are you getting your updates from?

It's still a much better picture than two weeks ago.

From local news.

[average joe]

Look, I guess we have to wait for the new cabinet to be sworn in to see what they get. Deputy speaker is not much though. This whole thing with the PA joining is also becoming a bit of back-and-forth shit slinging.

The commies in the ANC have already threatened before this whole GNU thing that if the ANC went with the DA, they would have to find a way to get rid of Ramaphosa. Some ANC members won't be happy with him as they blame him for the poor showing at the polls and the fact that many of them will need to give their jobs to the DA now.

Nearly 46% of voters in Natal voted for MK. Thats 1.6 million voters, add the 200k in Mpumalanga and the few in other provinces and you have nearly 4.6 million. Now they are being told their main man Zuma won't even rule in Natal, but rather some hodge podge stuck together bunch of people from different parties. My bet is most of these people are Zulu and they are not the easiest people to deal with when they put their heads on something. And all these court cases Zuma is losing is just adding fuel to the fire. He is already claiming the judicial is captured and he is losing because Ramaphosa and Zondo are friends who hate him.

[_Os_]

All I can make out of this is there's going to be shit in Natal again and if it's not contained it will boil over to other provinces.

The GNU can be "a good thing" if done right but so far, it's all been about the ANC and what they've done. All the top positions have gone to them. It seems the DA is sucking on the hind tit a bit.

Whatever happens in the next 5 years will determine which party survives. It all depends on who gets the credit when things get fixed and who gets the blame when things go to shit. The ANC and the DA are polar opposites and I reckon there's going to be a clash of heads soon. Whichever party gives too many concessions on their policies will bleed votes come the next election. I can't help thinking back to what happened to kort broek van Schalkwyk and the NNP back when they aligned with the ANC.

But we all hope, wait and see, I guess.

It's not like the post-1994 GNU. Back then the ANC had a majority and didn't need any other party. The ANC's aim with that GNU was to tie smaller parties to their programme and either absorb them or finish them. NNP joined and died, FF and DP stayed outside and still exist today (both with name changes).

Calling it the GNU was just a cope the DA allowed the ANC to have. It's an ANC-DA coalition, adding smaller parties is about the ANC pretending it isn't being kept in power by whites and trying to keep racist supporters onboard who cannot accept that.

The ANC is some way below 50%. It cannot rule without either the DA or MK or the EFF and another party together. It needs the DA because it's a sane party which doesn't want to destroy the country, only problem is the DA disagrees with the ANC on everything and all their supporters hate the ANC (guessing I'm on safe ground saying that includes all of us if we support the DA or not). That's how fucked the ANC is, its best option is a party which hates it. This isn't a kort broek situation, the media haven't worked it out yet and some ANC leaders haven't either ... but the ANC surviving now depends on people like us being happy. The DA has quite a bit of power.

Positions and policies haven't been negotiated yet. The DA will not care about the titles and positions so much, obviously they'll want a fair share, but they don't care about stuff like deputy president which has no power. They'll care about getting some results for the voters, which means the policies. The next thing to watch is the policy mix, it's a 40% party vs a 20% party so we're not going to get everything, but there's going to be substantial stuff in there, end of cadre deployment is top of the list. When you know how ANC looting works, that's like telling the ANC to slit its own throat (no jobs for friends no dodgy tenders), and the ANC will do it.

A potential breaking point will be when the ANC realises the DA top leaders are hard arses. Zille is tough. They're not going to roll over, they're not going to be bought with positions. They're going to demand the ANC knifes itself. Everything that has come out so far indicates the ANC hasn't fully realised how serious the DA is, and that the DA will collapse the whole thing if it doesn't get enough. The DA will not lose supporters for leaving a deal that was looking shit. What would the ANC do then? Get taken over by the EFF and MK? Good luck to them if they choose that, it'll be a shit show and there'll be nothing left of the ANC afterwards.

I put the chance of the DA negotiating a shit deal at near zero. The ANC options are take that deal and become a smaller party that's still in power and kept there by people like us which hate it (poetic justice, it's cadre deployment this time, but guess what comes next time when the ANC is smaller?), or choose to quite literally be killed by MK.

[Blake]

Positions and policies haven't been negotiated yet. The DA will not care about the titles and positions so much, obviously they'll want a fair share, but they don't care about stuff like deputy president which has no power. They'll care about getting some results for the voters, which means the policies. The next thing to watch is the policy mix, it's a 40% party vs a 20% party so we're not going to get everything, but there's going to be substantial stuff in there, end of cadre deployment is top of the list. When you know how ANC looting works, that's like telling the ANC to slit its own throat (no jobs for friends no dodgy tenders), and the ANC will do it.

A potential breaking point will be when the ANC realises the DA top leaders are hard arses. Zille is tough. They're not going to roll over, they're not going to be bought with positions. They're going to demand the ANC knifes itself. Everything that has come out so far indicates the ANC hasn't fully realised how serious the DA is, and that the DA will collapse the whole thing if it doesn't get enough. The DA will not lose supporters for leaving a deal that was looking shit. What would the ANC do then? Get taken over by the EFF and MK? Good luck to them if they choose that, it'll be a shit show and there'll be nothing left of the ANC afterwards.

That's the gameplan, right? The ANC in the Western Cape completely folded when Fransman and his goons lost control of the patronage networks. Once they couldn't secure jobs and tenders for friends and family, the kickbacks dried up and the party's provincial structures collapsed.

Same thing started to happen to the ANC nationally once all the Zuma acolytes got ousted out of the SEO's that the Zuma ANC was looting dry. They are effectively bankrupt and because there is so much scrutiny on donations, they are fucked when they loose cadre deployment. The DA knows this and is going for the jugular and it's very smart because it is way more popular than going after cadre deployment publicly than going after BEE (which the DA is also correct on, but is being purposefully being misrepresented by the media).

The other big thing the DA and ANC need to do, and quickly, is to neuter MK. Investigate all their dodgy Russian funding, kick open the can of worms that is Zuma and all his networks and go after the people that are funnelling money to him. The money for all his legal bills has to be coming from somewhere.

[_Os_]

That's the gameplan, right? The ANC in the Western Cape completely folded when Fransman and his goons lost control of the patronage networks. Once they couldn't secure jobs and tenders for friends and family, the kickbacks dried up and the party's provincial structures collapsed.

Same thing started to happen to the ANC nationally once all the Zuma acolytes got ousted out of the SEO's that the Zuma ANC was looting dry. They are effectively bankrupt and because there is so much scrutiny on donations, they are fucked when they loose cadre deployment. The DA knows this and is going for the jugular and it's very smart because it is way more popular than going after cadre deployment publicly than going after BEE (which the DA is also correct on, but is being purposefully being misrepresented by the media).

That's what the DA strategy looks like. The ANC strategy is becoming clear now.

There's 10 parties in the GNU. ANC-DA-IFP was already more than enough. There's a fucking herd of minnows in the GNU now. If the ANC gets every single minnow into its camp, it will have a majority of 1 without the parties highly opposed to it DA/FF+/ACDP/ASA or EFF/MK. At the moment the parties in the GNU other than the DA are 1 seat short of a majority.

What the ANC is trying to do is obvious, they're trying to dilute the strength of the DA in the GNU. They're going to give minnow parties positions and titles, and meaningless rubbish like the FF+ getting a "recognition" of Orania (no legal standing, not worth the paper it is written on, not much use if the country goes to shit). In return they're going to be expected to support ANC policies, with no reform. The ANC wants the DA out of the GNU. This is stupid because a 10 party coalition (or however many it ends up being) will not be stable, there will basically not be a government capable of doing much. Then 2029 comes, and all the trends we've seen this election accelerate because there's been no reform and no improvements, who knows what the maths will then be like in parliament.

My info is the ANC are trying to force the DA to take 3 cabinet seats (they want 30%/7 seats), and what the ANC are trying to give the DA is junk. Finance, which is always shit because that person is always blamed for not throwing money everywhere (which is why the ANC always gives it to someone who isn't black, they're not going to be popular may as well end the reputation of someone with no chance of higher positions). Sport, for fucks sake. Agriculture, not a terrible one but nowhere near the top five.

The reason the cabinet hasn't been announced yet, is because it's a fight to try and get the ANC to see sense. Then there's another fight with the minnow herd who all want cabinet seats. The DA can't accept a deal where they're 22% of parliament and 30% of the GNU, but they're getting 10% of cabinet seats. Has to be a high chance of the DA quitting the GNU, the major thing is policy if the ANC keeps pretending nothing has changed then the DA will quit. If the DA quits the FF+ aren't going to like being in bed with the ANC alone, they'll quit too. Suddenly the GNU would be 7 seats short of a majority.

The GNU without the DA, isn't a government. What a crazy mess the ANC has made of this.

[_Os_]

I have found Rinky's Twitter. 9k posts, 121 followers. Stats seem similar to Stampy's.

Seems to think the DA should stay in the GNU under any circumstances to "fix the country", but err who broke the country (even more than when they got hold of it)? So how can it be fixed if the people who broke it retain all the power, and the people trying to fix it have crumbs? What happens to the party trying to fix it when they fail because they have no power and have in fact been working with the party doing the breaking? Lefty English speaking white Saffas really are on a different fucking planet. Some of them still haven't worked out the ANC is the problem.

Stampy's Twitter was just very mad and amusing, I was always a bit of a fan of the mad bastard in small quantities. Rinky's Twitter angers me.

[average joe]

So, we are back to my comment about the DA getting jack shit? Bit of a conundrum, they walk out, and we don't have a government. They stay, and the ANC screws them over and leave them with scraps.

[_Os_]

So, we are back to my comment about the DA getting jack shit? Bit of a conundrum, they walk out, and we don't have a government. They stay, and the ANC screws them over and leave them with scraps.

Some members of the DA's negotiating team have tweeted "wink wink don't listen to the bullshit" type stuff. Auntie Helen has done a podcast, didn't mention the negotiations much/at all, but it's the type of thing she does when she's happy.

The one person I know who is definitely on the ANC's negotiating team and isn't a possible moron, has retweeted some defiant "we will never give in" type stuff. ANC mostly 100% ignores social media and traditional media, so it's harder to get a read on them.

Possible both camps are liking what they've got. We shall see.

It's becoming obvious it's going to be incredibly hard for the DA to do much, everything is going to be an insane battle. They may win those battles, but what should be done in a day will take a week or a month.

[Blake]

My info is the ANC are trying to force the DA to take 3 cabinet seats (they want 30%/7 seats), and what the ANC are trying to give the DA is junk. Finance, which is always shit because that person is always blamed for not throwing money everywhere (which is why the ANC always gives it to someone who isn't black, they're not going to be popular may as well end the reputation of someone with no chance of higher positions). Sport, for fucks sake. Agriculture, not a terrible one but nowhere near the top five.

Sport is an interesting one. In the grand scheme of things it's probably meaningless, I agree. You want finance, commerce, labour, energy, police, social development etc. to make a real impact on society where it matters.

But what sport does have is visibility. If the DA can take that, and run it properly and invest in youth sport programs, and turn around some of the failing sport bodies, it will be a massive PR coup. I wouldn't underestimate its value.

[Sandstorm]

My info is the ANC are trying to force the DA to take 3 cabinet seats (they want 30%/7 seats), and what the ANC are trying to give the DA is junk. Finance, which is always shit because that person is always blamed for not throwing money everywhere (which is why the ANC always gives it to someone who isn't black, they're not going to be popular may as well end the reputation of someone with no chance of higher positions). Sport, for fucks sake. Agriculture, not a terrible one but nowhere near the top five.

Sport is an interesting one. In the grand scheme of things it's probably meaningless, I agree. You want finance, commerce, labour, energy, police, social development etc. to make a real impact on society where it matters.

But what sport does have is visibility. If the DA can take that, and run it properly and invest in youth sport programs, and turn around some of the failing sport bodies, it will be a massive PR coup. I wouldn't underestimate its value.

You're right on Sport, however the Big 5 you mention above are what pay for the other nice things.

[Blake]

You're right on Sport, however the Big 5 you mention above are what pay for the other nice things.

Not just the nicer things, the ANC need to isolate the DA from those departments, lest they make a success of them.

Finance? Can't have the DA slash the public sector wage bill and cut off SEOs.
Trade and Industry? Can't have the slash regulations
Labour? Can't have the DA advance minimum wage and BEE reform
Energy? It will be a bad look if the DA manage to make inroads in load shedding.
Police? Can't have the DA go after those implicated in the Zondo report.
Social development? Can't have a DA minister stand for a ribbon cutting after ribbon cutting for RDP houses...bad look for their "party of rich whites" narrative.

But they have to give the DA something...so we'll see. As long as the DA make whatever they get a success over the next 4 years, it will hurt the ANC in the next election.

[_Os_]

My info is the ANC are trying to force the DA to take 3 cabinet seats (they want 30%/7 seats), and what the ANC are trying to give the DA is junk. Finance, which is always shit because that person is always blamed for not throwing money everywhere (which is why the ANC always gives it to someone who isn't black, they're not going to be popular may as well end the reputation of someone with no chance of higher positions). Sport, for fucks sake. Agriculture, not a terrible one but nowhere near the top five.

Sport is an interesting one. In the grand scheme of things it's probably meaningless, I agree. You want finance, commerce, labour, energy, police, social development etc. to make a real impact on society where it matters.

But what sport does have is visibility. If the DA can take that, and run it properly and invest in youth sport programs, and turn around some of the failing sport bodies, it will be a massive PR coup. I wouldn't underestimate its value.

The DA do have some plans on sport, as in I've talked to someone in the DA's policy domain years back. DA plans can always be boiled down to "SA is fucked, do not try and reinvent the wheel which is what the ANC often does, just find the best practice elsewhere and copy that". They would set up an Australian/UK style sports institute and maybe academies for the 3 big team sports (soccer, rugby, cricket).

There's two issues: funding and skills (infrastructure less of an issue with sport). Sport is one of the things where SA is a bit crazy. Wayde van Niekerk is the Olympic and World record holder for 400m, he beat Michael Johnson that had who knows how much money put into him by the US Olympic system etc. Johnson was a machine, but everyone at the Olympics from top nations has a team of coaches/trainers/analysts/psychologists behind them. Van Niekerk was literally trained and coached in Bloem by a tannie with no budget. Dricus du Plessis UFC champion, literally trained by some Boer in a Pretoria gym with no pedigree (crazy because of the amount of skill sets in MMA, it's boxing/wrestling/kick boxing/Muay Thai, all in one), top fighters usually have specialist coaches in each distinct area (ground work and grappling, punching and arm work, kicking and leg work). Chad le Clos beat Phelps in the Olympics, the difference between the coaching/analysis/training/money put into a guy from Westville and Phelps is immense (Le Clos had the best in Westville and himself training him when he started out, Phelps had the best on the planet improving him). All our golfers basically did it alone. There's many examples.

If you found all the right people in SA and funded them, you could do something. But then the next problem is the management of all this. You need accountants/managers/performance analysts. If someone turns out to be kak they shouldn't be funded etc. If it works you max what we have, for example Le Clos has said he's struggled with mental issues which have harmed his performance, a good sports psychologist would've helped him. Any really top end sportsman in an individual sport has a psychologist on their team, unless they're a South African somehow beating everyone and relying on their own mental toughness.

Which then brings up the next problem. Getting this far means working with what we have (at this point rugby/soccer/cricket/netball/combat sports/track and field/swimming, have all been levelled up, because that's what we like most). Which unfortunately means people interested in those sports already, who have the free time to get good at them when they are young (diet, gym etc), and the money to pay their own way and compete. So it's disproportionately white people. Your political opponents in SA then start attacking that, and not praising the improved performances. It happens every Olympics, the team is attacked for being too white, yet those people are the ones interested in sailing or whatever who paid their way. There basically is no SA Olympic system, it's crazy SA does anything at all in the Olympics, with what SA puts in it should be 0 medals.

Taking it to the next level involves talent scouting and getting people to do stuff they wouldn't have otherwise, as well as hiring international coaches. Basically you go to township schools, you find kids who may be good at rowing or cycling etc, they're then packed off the sports academy where they get a better education and training for the Olympics from international coaches etc. In other words huge costs.

If you were trying to win political prestige you would focus on soccer. Setup soccer academies in each big metro, talent scout all the schools, non-local coaches (what we have has clearly failed). Crucially those international coaches would also be used to train all the failed SA coaches, not just the young players. Amount of coaches/analysts trained would be a KPI, the aim would be increasing soccer knowledge across the entire system, it would mean training 10,000s of people. This is the German soccer model (academies for the top young players + increase coaching skills through the entire system). SA should be competing to win AFCON every time its played, given the interest and athletic ability in SA. Rugby sort of has a patchwork version of this, just unevenly spread because its funded by schools/unis/clubs/SARU/provinces (another way of saying everyone interested in rugby, without government money). Am and Mapimpi can do what they have in RWCs, doing really well in soccer is possible, it's not an athlete problem it's a skills and talent identification problem.

Obviously with cadre deployment and corruption, it's all sunk at step one "find good people in SA and give them money". But with the DA and enough time it becomes possible. Would take an entire 5 year term to get it in place. The political management of it all isn't much different to setting up something like drug rehabilitation clinics in CT or something. Allocate resources and identify stakeholders, understand the funnels, get the right people, project management. It's just basic governance.

Personally I would rather have Transnet fixed. Our sports have been failed but so has basically everything.

[_Os_]

Interesting developments in the negotiations, a DA letter from Zille to Mbaks has been leaked (I'll get into that in another post).

Aspects of the negotiation are becoming clear: The DA isn't going to be pushed around or settle for a kak deal. The reason Zille is attacked by opponents so much is simple, she's tough and a natural at politics, opponents want the DA's biggest assets removed (Maimane was an idiot for basically taking her off the board whilst he was leader). ANC raised the stakes by adding the herd of minnows, the DA has fired back with a full demand list.

DA demands are:

11 ministries (or however many amounts to 30%). Deputy ministers in each ministry. Appointment of new DGs and DDGs in the ministries.
Deputy president or minster in the presidency and deputy minister in the finace ministry if the DA doesn't control it.
All tenders in DA controlled ministries will be reviewed.
The herd of minnows take their seat share from the shared pool, including the ANC, not from the DA or opposition pool alone. In other words the ANC is punished for adding them all.

Ministries the DA has listed are in all the clusters: Economic, Social, Governance, Justice, International Relations. They are:

Mineral Resource and Energy
Transport
Trade and Industry
Public Works and Infrastructure
Higher Education Science and Technology
Public Service and Administration
Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs
Justice
Home Affairs
International Relations
Communications and Digital Technology

... It looks like a maximal position to me, in other words a negotiating position they will be happy to back down from. I know for a fact DA foot soldiers have been told to expect 7 ministries or no deal, that's the expectations they're setting for the troops. Some interesting ones in there, the DA getting some trade deals would get some headlines, as would rolling out digital.

(for those who don't know a deputy minister is someone working in a related area under the relevant cabinet minister, for example the minister of finance could have a deputy minister for pensions. Directors general (DG), is the top civil servant in the department, the ANC has made a point of deploying ANC cadres to these positions, their loyalty is questionable as is their ability, at metro level these people basically run the city and are always booted first when the ANC loses. The plan looks like cut the cadre head off, and subject everyone below that to performance reviews and monitoring remove the kak and all new hires to be merit based ... this is why gaining the public services and admin ministry is critical, take that and cut the head off cadre deployment).

Letter here, classic Zille. Will go down as one of the most famous letters in modern SA.

[_Os_]

The leak is where it gets interesting, can only be from the DA or ANC negotiating teams. ANC are blaming the DA, but there's a few things: the ANC press release condemning the DA for the leak came out very quickly, their negotiators tweeted similar statements saying the DA was being "outrageous and ridiculous" at the same time.

To me it looks like the ANC leaked the DA demands. They're testing to see if there's public outcry to try and pressure the DA, and creating a soft landing for themselves by saying they "won" if the DA ends up with less than those demands.

What it does show though is the negotiating strength of the DA. If it really was outrageous that the DA was demanding basically 1/3 of the government to control as it pleases, the ANC would've stopped talking to the DA. That letter was sent on the weekend. But they're still talking to the DA, because what is the alternative.

Also gives an insight into why they've accepted defeat so easily and didn't complain about the result etc. Arrogance. They really thought the DA would roll over for fokkol. I reckon they're fucking rocked by the DA's position.

[_Os_]

Being a lifelong DA supporter right now watching SABC news and browsing through all the Twitters (SA/black/EFF/ANC), after the Zille letter drop, is what is best in life ...

[Blake]

What it does show though is the negotiating strength of the DA. If it really was outrageous that the DA was demanding basically 1/3 of the government to control as it pleases, the ANC would've stopped talking to the DA. That letter was sent on the weekend. But they're still talking to the DA, because what is the alternative.

It's ballsy, for sure, but also calculated and defendable.
ANC got 40%, DA for 20%. So 1/3 is an ambitious, but not an outrageous demand.
Clever negotiating.

Also, a win-win if the ANC reduces the amount of ministries in order not to give up positions. We have too many ministries as it is.

[average joe]

The ANC is not Ramaphosa. He can be cut loose to make way for a 51% coalition without the DA. The unions, commies and EFF are already screaming from the cheap seats about him selling the country to whites. If things continue this way, the knifes will be coming out.

[_Os_]

The ANC is not Ramaphosa. He can be cut loose to make way for a 51% coalition without the DA. The unions, commies and EFF are already screaming from the cheap seats about him selling the country to whites. If things continue this way, the knifes will be coming out.

It's a bit more complicated.

A coalition of 15 odd parties to get a 1 seat majority, isn't going to work. Every time the ANC try to govern they're all going to demand to be fed. They cannot dump one minnow to replace it with another in that coalition, they need every party that isn't hostile to it DA/FF+/ACDP/ASA or MK/EFF. In reality it is not viable.

Which means they need either the DA, or MK, or EFF. They would've wrecked their chances with the DA, if this doesn't work and they go back to the DA later more desperate the price doesn't go down. MK and EFF will have their own demands, my bet would be they're nowhere near as fair as the DA is being.

The next ANC elective conference is at the end of 2027. Ramaphosa is president because the DA backed him (the ANC seems to have forgotten this). He is not president because the ANC guy automatically becomes president, he's there through the DA's support. Without the DA if there's a confidence vote the ANC will need a plan to get the support of other parties. That will involve giving those parties something.

No country that is not a super power is fully sovereign. In the UK Liz the Lettuce (she was so kak that she went vrot before a literal lettuce), blew up the economy through unfunded tax cuts. In the real world if MK or EFF had any power it would risk a Zim or Venezuela like situation. If you fuck everything up as much as the ANC has, the realistic options become quite narrow. The famous "markets" is really just ANC incompetence taking other options off the table, no one is going to buy SA's debt if crazy parties have power and everything is unstable. It's the same as asking a foreigner to invest in MK or the EFF.

If the ANC get this wrong, then they lose more votes in 2029. Their supporters online are screaming about whites having power and all the rest of it (fun to watch, I highly recommend it). Those are the middle class ANC supporters, not those with nothing. The trajectory is the ANC loses more votes next time if it doesn't improve anything.

... from a DA point of view, they're okay with this all blowing up and being in opposition. If the choice is next to no power and being in opposition, they're not going to choose being in an ANC government without any power. But they're not going to be the ones to quit, DA hands will remain clean, if the ANC wants the DA out they'll have to either kick the DA out or appoint a cabinet that excludes the DA and forces the DA out. Because if the ANC don't go with the DA the next trick will be to blame the mess on the DA, no one can blame the DA if the ANC decided not to have the DA.