The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[Hal Jordan]

I think it's just another example of the mindset of this (former) Government that rules are for the little people.

[tabascoboy]

The election campaign from hell continues to go well. Corrupt to the core.

Is it even an actual offense ?

It would be if it were Stock Market transaction, or a Sports person, but are there insider trading rules for SPADS ?

I'd say fuck the bookies for running a book on something were they can be done over so easily.

If it was an offence it would be investigated by the police rather than the gambling commission I reckon?

I reckon he bet a suspiciously large amount on the date. The firm he did it too cried about it to the industry stooges at the gambling commission and they've realised it's not a crime but they want to embarrass him.

Reminds me a bit of when Kieran Trippier's family put loads of money on him going to Atletico Madrid. He did get banned (unfair) but there was no crime.

Not exactly a fortune, but not just a £10 flutter either...

According to the Guardian, external, Mr Williams - who is standing for election in Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - placed a £100 bet on a July election just three days before Mr Sunak named 4 July as the date.

The newspaper reported that the bet could have led to a payout of £500, following the election in July.

[Tichtheid]

According to the Telegraph Sunak wasn't given a fair hearing and the audience at last night's event were taken from a cross-section of the "Far Left"

[dpedin]

Just in time to remind the electorate how much money this goverment spaffed and sent to their mates and donors

An arrest has been made in connection with the criminal investigation into PPE Medpro, the company that was awarded large government personal protective equipment contracts during the Covid pandemic.
In a statement, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said a 46-year-old man had been arrested at his north London home.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/a ... e-medpro

This is actually bigger news than the coverage it has had so far. If the NCA start digging into the whole PPE procurement debacle then they will uncover even more shit and a lot of Tories will be shitting themselves as a consequence. There might even be some form of plea bargaining in exchange for further info? I am not sure the 'I cant find my WhatsApp messages' excuse will stand up in court and once the NCA and their forensic teams get going then all sorts of shit will emerge. The Labour promise to appoint a Covid Corruption Minister with wide ranging powers might see a lot of ex Ministers and MPs suddenly finding jobs in countries without an extradition treaty with the UK? This alone could see the end of the Tory Party if Labour have the balls to see it through!

[_Os_]

Not exactly a fortune, but not just a £10 flutter either...

According to the Guardian, external, Mr Williams - who is standing for election in Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - placed a £100 bet on a July election just three days before Mr Sunak named 4 July as the date.

The newspaper reported that the bet could have led to a payout of £500, following the election in July.

I was expecting at least another 0 on the end of that. The amount isn't significant, surprising it was picked up.

I was watching that market, 3rd quarter 2024 was the longest odds other than January 2025. Betting volumes would've been very low, even so picking up a bet that small as being suspect/unusual, surprises me. AI maybe? Only other thing I can think of is the bookie was watching him already.

[Lobby]

Not exactly a fortune, but not just a £10 flutter either...

According to the Guardian, external, Mr Williams - who is standing for election in Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - placed a £100 bet on a July election just three days before Mr Sunak named 4 July as the date.

The newspaper reported that the bet could have led to a payout of £500, following the election in July.

I was expecting at least another 0 on the end of that. The amount isn't significant, surprising it was picked up.

I was watching that market, 3rd quarter 2024 was the longest odds other than January 2025. Betting volumes would've been very low, even so picking up a bet that small as being suspect/unusual, surprises me. AI maybe? Only other thing I can think of is the bookie was watching him already.

The bookie who reported him was clearly a loony lefty Labour supporter determined to smear a fine upstanding hard working Conservative MP (TM Daily Telegraph/Daily Express/CCHQ)

[Paddington Bear]

Bookies are exceptionally sophisticated corporations with very highly skilled tech, IT and financial teams. Getting one past them has probably never been more difficult

[Hal Jordan]

I've had my poll card. One day before my wife's turned up which she attributes to white make privilege. 

In reality it is a bit odd, it's the first time ever that they didn't arrive at the same time.

[epwc]

Mine turned up the same day as my wife, I guess she let down the white race

[Tichtheid]

I'm going postal this time,

as in postal vote, not going berserk.

[Paddington Bear]

Polling cards arrived in the PB household for both of us at the same time yesterday, but then we’re both in the ‘so white mayo is spicy’ camp so not sure how this fits in.

Also just realised our seat has had fairly significant boundary changes, taking out some very true blue areas. Will be very interesting

[sockwithaticket]

I'm going postal this time,

as in postal vote, not going berserk.

Same. I've got a gig in the evening and can't really be arsed getting up earlier to vote before work or trying to squeeze it in straight afterwards.

[Margin__Walker]

I'm funny when it comes to postal votes

It's a perfectly normal thing to do and will almost certainly get there, but I don't feel I've voted unless I've put the ballot paper in that box.

[Hal Jordan]

I drop my son off at school on Tuesday morning, so I will vote straight afterwards, the polling station is just down the round so it's only 5 minutes out of the day, especially at 8.30 in the morning when there's hardly anyone there.

[vball]

Due to boundary changes, in a different constituency than before.
"She who must be obeyed" and I have had many discussions. I am going to vote for the person most likely to keep the SNP out although not the policies I would back while she says there she will only vote for the party she believes "most" in. So I am very much tactical while she is more principled even though it is still first-past-the-post.

[C69]

According to the Telegraph Sunak wasn't given a fair hearing and the audience at last night's event were taken from a cross-section of the "Far Left"

Far left Conservative Association chairwoman.
Lol, and she gives him the biggest headache.
I really hope there is a massive Labour majority and they s at that the financial situation is much worse than feared and then go on a radical leftist agenda.

Then I wake up from my wet dream and become disappointed.
Lol

[Tichtheid]

According to the Telegraph Sunak wasn't given a fair hearing and the audience at last night's event were taken from a cross-section of the "Far Left"

Far left Conservative Association chairwoman.
Lol, and she gives him the biggest headache.
I really hope there is a massive Labour majority and they s at that the financial situation is much worse than feared and then go on a radical leftist agenda.

Then I wake up from my wet dream and become disappointed.
Lol

In '97 a day or two before the vote my next door neighbour said to me - Blair's going to get in on a liberal ticket and the revolution starts on Monday.

[David in Gwent]

According to the Telegraph Sunak wasn't given a fair hearing and the audience at last night's event were taken from a cross-section of the "Far Left"

Far left Conservative Association chairwoman.
Lol, and she gives him the biggest headache.
I really hope there is a massive Labour majority and they s at that the financial situation is much worse than feared and then go on a radical leftist agenda.

Then I wake up from my wet dream and become disappointed.
Lol

In '97 a day or two before the vote my next door neighbour said to me - Blair's going to get in on a liberal ticket and the revolution starts on Monday.

The Revolution was televised and it was a fecking shit show.

[Hal Jordan]

We got some good tunes, and personally the hilarity of watching the 97 results come in during a piss up in my Hall of Residence's Senior Common Room with your standard lefty student crew and some absolutely shell-shocked Tory boys was worth it.

[_Os_]

Butler is getting her celebration in early.

[C69]

Butler is getting her celebration in early.

Pmsl.

[vball]

How do Labour's tax plans really negatively affect me?

Private schools - my kids went to local academy (normal school not fee paying) and left years ago. In fact as a kid I only knew of 2 people who went to a private/public school. Things must have changed.
Oil and Gas windfall - I burn coal in my stove and oil in my central heating. Nothing compared to the oil price fluctuations.
Loopholes being closed. Will this mean I can no longer have my ISAs? Doubt it.

So none of these apply to me so how can I be any worse off.
So why not vote for them?

[sockwithaticket]

How do Labour's tax plans really negatively affect me?

Private schools - my kids went to local academy (normal school not fee paying) and left years ago. In fact as a kid I only knew of 2 people who went to a private/public school. Things must have changed.
Oil and Gas windfall - I burn coal in my stove and oil in my central heating. Nothing compared to the oil price fluctuations.
Loopholes being closed. Will this mean I can no longer have my ISAs? Doubt it.

So none of these apply to me so how can I be any worse off.
So why not vote for them?

B-b-b-but £2000!

I suspect that the recent NI cuts may be reversed over the course of the Parliament, but feel a bit meh on that one. It's a tax cut that disproportionately benefits higher earners anyway and the benefit to lower or medium earners was mostly nixed by thresholds not being moved.

If Labour had the best chance of ousting a Tory in my constituency, I'd be voting for them.

[vball]

B-b-b-but £2000!

I suspect that the recent NI cuts may be reversed over the course of the Parliament, but feel a bit meh on that one. It's a tax cut that disproportionately benefits higher earners anyway and the benefit to lower or medium earners was mostly nixed by thresholds not being moved.

If Labour had the best chance of ousting a Tory in my constituency, I'd be voting for them.

Sorry - make no mistake I am pretty right wing and pay some tax at a higher level. Also just about to be made redundant (which happily matches my planned early retirement date and I am pleased I managed to move myself into the redundancy stream as I planned). But the Tories have not done particularly well since I returned to the UK from Europeland to live (coincides with Tories winning again) and I feel the UK could do with a little shake up. As one election it was Labour next Tory then Labour. So always about the middle of the road. But with no opposition the Tories could do as they pleased for last 15 years and deserve to go.
I just feel people will vote Tories out regardless of whatever manifesto is produced. Labour will not deliver on all of it (not sure how much) as much as Tories never delivered on theirs. They are politicians after all.

So I would vote for whoever will stop SNP. Simples.

[Tichtheid]

Even if all the assumptions and costings prove correct, the £2k is over four years, so five hundred quid per tax year, a little over nine pounds sixty a week on average, some will pay nowt extra, the top earners will pay more than a tenner.

[I like neeps]

Despite what they - or the Tories - say taxes will go up because across the board public services are failing and councils are all going bust.

The cost for social care and healthcare will continue to rise in our ageing and unhealthy society.

The schools and hospitals will need to be repaired/rebuilt.

The police and justice system and the prison system needs more money considering crime is going up.

Someone is going to have to pay for the new sewers and water nationalisation with the water companies failing.

And you can pin it on this is paid for by growth. But you need to launch pro growth policies. Oh well.

[Margin__Walker]

Yeah, it's all a bit of a silly argument. But not a new thing.

Ultimately nothing works at the moment and the tax burden will have to rise somewhere to pay to fix things.

[Biffer]

I thought Swinney got a relatively easy ride, but again I don’t think a Westminster based journo has enough of the nuance to really go at the SNP.

What does annoy me though is the continued statement that only SNP MP’s will stand up for Scotland in Westminster. The obvious inference is that Scottish Labour MP’s don’t care about Scotland and will “talk us down”. I wish someone would ask him if he doesn’t think that being a Scottish MP at the heart of government will be able to effect a lot more change than a bunch of clapping goons just intent on being a protest movement

Did that work with Alistair Jack?

[Slick]

I thought Swinney got a relatively easy ride, but again I don’t think a Westminster based journo has enough of the nuance to really go at the SNP.

What does annoy me though is the continued statement that only SNP MP’s will stand up for Scotland in Westminster. The obvious inference is that Scottish Labour MP’s don’t care about Scotland and will “talk us down”. I wish someone would ask him if he doesn’t think that being a Scottish MP at the heart of government will be able to effect a lot more change than a bunch of clapping goons just intent on being a protest movement

Did that work with Alistair Jack?

Jack is a cunt. But he also stopped some of their more idiotic excesses, which wasn't a bad thing.

[petej]

Despite what they - or the Tories - say taxes will go up because across the board public services are failing and councils are all going bust.

The cost for social care and healthcare will continue to rise in our ageing and unhealthy society.

The schools and hospitals will need to be repaired/rebuilt.

The police and justice system and the prison system needs more money considering crime is going up.

Someone is going to have to pay for the new sewers and water nationalisation with the water companies failing.

And you can pin it on this is paid for by growth. But you need to launch pro growth policies. Oh well.

The generational deal the Tories made has run its course. That generation is now old and needs public services. A lot of infrastructure is heading towards end of life. High taxes are here to stay.

[robmatic]

Despite what they - or the Tories - say taxes will go up because across the board public services are failing and councils are all going bust.

The cost for social care and healthcare will continue to rise in our ageing and unhealthy society.

The schools and hospitals will need to be repaired/rebuilt.

The police and justice system and the prison system needs more money considering crime is going up.

Someone is going to have to pay for the new sewers and water nationalisation with the water companies failing.

And you can pin it on this is paid for by growth. But you need to launch pro growth policies. Oh well.

The generational deal the Tories made has run its course. That generation is now old and needs public services. A lot of infrastructure is heading towards end of life. High taxes are here to stay.

It might have been alright if we had had a government over the last 14 years that was even vaguely interested in growth or productivity.

[Slick]

This BBCQT has changed my mind about Kate Forbes, she’s fucking useless

[fishfoodie]

Sounds like there are polls out there that have Reform on the same, or better percentages than the Tories, & everyone is just waiting for one of the reputable pollsters to drop a new poll confirming this, before everyone starts running around like their hair was on fire !

I have a funny feeling that this weeks, "super majority" bullshit is because their own internal polling shows they've fallen behind Reform in the polls.

No one really expects Reforms polling vote to hold up when it comes to actual votes cast on the day, but it really doesn't matter, because FPTP means that whether the vote is cast for Reform, or just not cast for the Tory, the result is the same ..... oblivion !

I'd say it doesn't really matter, but it does if you're a Tory, because there's a big difference between how you react to a voter sitting on their hands, & actively voting for a Party even further to the right of you. I suspect that the switch to votes for Reform won't be as significant as the vote that just didn't turn out .... & I also suspect that the unhinged twats that have taken over the Party will ignore the fascists don't have support, & pretend that the Party just wasn't sufficiently fascist, or didn't do a good enough a job of being a Nazi

[I like neeps]

Sounds like there are polls out there that have Reform on the same, or better percentages than the Tories, & everyone is just waiting for one of the reputable pollsters to drop a new poll confirming this, before everyone starts running around like their hair was on fire !

I have a funny feeling that this weeks, "super majority" bullshit is because their own internal polling shows they've fallen behind Reform in the polls.

No one really expects Reforms polling vote to hold up when it comes to actual votes cast on the day, but it really doesn't matter, because FPTP means that whether the vote is cast for Reform, or just not cast for the Tory, the result is the same ..... oblivion !

I'd say it doesn't really matter, but it does if you're a Tory, because there's a big difference between how you react to a voter sitting on their hands, & actively voting for a Party even further to the right of you. I suspect that the switch to votes for Reform won't be as significant as the vote that just didn't turn out .... & I also suspect that the unhinged twats that have taken over the Party will ignore the fascists don't have support, & pretend that the Party just wasn't sufficiently fascist, or didn't do a good enough a job of being a Nazi

There was a lot of talk of post 2019 of the realignment the Tories tapped into of economically left and interventionist e.g. levelling up and socially right e.g. boo migrants.

That's still the realignment that exists across Europe, the Tories can't capitalise on it because they don't believe in the economically left part.

All that Reform need is some succession planning and getting a trendy fresh face and bobs your uncle.

[_Os_]

There was a lot of talk of post 2019 of the realignment the Tories tapped into of economically left and interventionist e.g. levelling up and socially right e.g. boo migrants.

That's still the realignment that exists across Europe, the Tories can't capitalise on it because they don't believe in the economically left part.

All that Reform need is some succession planning and getting a trendy fresh face and bobs your uncle.

In the UK the "realignment" is a right wing fantasy. The Tories only added 300k votes in 2019 compared to 2017.

The Tory heartland is the South of England. In other words the most socially liberal people in the UK, any polling on attitudes to things like homosexuality or race that includes a regional breakdown will show this. It will also show that the South West (urban areas Labour/Tory, rural areas of which there's many Tory/Lib Dem), is the most socially liberal of all. Put bluntly the more white and the more South of England the more socially liberal. The South of England isn't economically interventionist either, they're economically liberal too and want low taxes. Cameron's image was crafted for these people.

The Tory base is the opposite of the Red Wall man that Tories have been chasing. Red Wall man is also a myth, the term was originally coined by pollsters for areas that lean more Labour than their demographics suggest. The Red Wall in that original meaning doesn't exist anymore, those areas now express party preferences matching their demographics. Meanwhile the Tories are throwing themselves at characters like Anderson (who some Tory called "the living embodiment of the Red Wall"). They've ended up at "Red Wall = be a massive bigot to win votes". Most of this exists in their own minds and not in reality.

Levelling Up is more interesting and there's actual real issues there. But the costs of doing it properly would likely be in the region of what West Germany put into East Germany. Which means voters in the South of England having their taxes spent in the North. HS2 shows how difficult that can become.

... Which all means the Tories have ended up hammering on about immigration to maintain the "realignment". I've posted for about a year (maybe more?) that the Tories focusing on this was a huge mistake. It has enabled the return of Farage, the top issues with voters are the economy and the NHS, the people that care the most about immigration were already voting Tory, it's something the Tories have failed at on their own terms. "Realignment" led them into the Rwanda scheme and Stop The Boats, they've won no votes from any of it. Instead they've boosted Reform. They're also not being honest, their current immigration rules are unsustainable. Even the Telegraph had an article recently stating the skilled visa salary threshold of £38,700 was too high and would mean businesses moving to cheaper parts of Europe, exporting jobs employing British workers as well as foreign workers.

[I like neeps]

The Red Wall the obvious realignment. The Tory red wall voters are the ones who have switched to Reform. Older, brexiteer, and an asset owner. The Tories captured them to get Brexit done and not being Corbyn. Labour isn't going to win them back either.

[fishfoodie]

"Leveling Up" was the stupidest policy ever. Not that it shouldn't be done, but that once the Tories committed to a policy they knew they would never deliver, it became an Albatross around the Party's neck.

It would have been better to never have such a policy, than to say you'll do it, & not deliver.

[dpedin]

There is no such thing as a 'supermajority' in the UK, we only have majorities, and it is just the desperate Tories flaying around looking for anything they can throw at Labour! If there was such a thing then surely that is exactly what Johnson had with his c80 seat majority last time around and he managed to piss that against the wall in extra quick time! All this crap about giving Starmer a blank cheque is just scare mongering from the last remnants of a decaying Tory Party - Project Fear.

Tories now in middle of a tightening pincer movement - Reform on far right and Labour from the middle. They have lost both the racist, Brexit supporting, right wing numbnuts to Farage and the more moderate, middle/middle right, middle England, middle income conservatives with a small c to Labour. No-one apart from the hard core 'Ive always voted Tory and won't change' have deserted them and they alone are no where near enough to rescue the Head Boy from oblivion.

Farage and his right wing backers have played a blinder and completely disabled the Tory Party. This is Farage's last chance to achieve what he wants, to take over the remnants of the right wing of the Tory Party and create a right wing UK version of the populist Republican Party here in the UK. His big money US based backers are going all in on this one.

Reform will win a few seats but that isn't really their long term aim, its just a foothold for what they really want, which is to take over the remains of the Tory Party and become the main opposition and fight the next election as such. Key to this is Farage winning his seat and becoming an MP, at the 8th time. They fully expect the Tory Party as we know it will crumble after their defeat and a number of remaining right wing Tory MPs will defect to Reform to create a 'new' Party with Farage at its head. All the other parties need to align and vote to keep Farage out, even Labour supporters should vote Tory!!!!

[David in Gwent]

Reform on far right and Labour from the middle.

LOL.

[Sandstorm]

There is no such thing as a 'supermajority' in the UK, we only have majorities, and it is just the desperate Tories flaying around looking for anything they can throw at Labour! If there was such a thing then surely that is exactly what Johnson had with his c80 seat majority last time around and he managed to piss that against the wall in extra quick time! All this crap about giving Starmer a blank cheque is just scare mongering from the last remnants of a decaying Tory Party - Project Fear.

Tories now in middle of a tightening pincer movement - Reform on far right and Labour from the middle. They have lost both the racist, Brexit supporting, right wing numbnuts to Farage and the more moderate, middle/middle right, middle England, middle income conservatives with a small c to Labour. No-one apart from the hard core 'Ive always voted Tory and won't change' have deserted them and they alone are no where near enough to rescue the Head Boy from oblivion.

Farage and his right wing backers have played a blinder and completely disabled the Tory Party. This is Farage's last chance to achieve what he wants, to take over the remnants of the right wing of the Tory Party and create a right wing UK version of the populist Republican Party here in the UK. His big money US based backers are going all in on this one.

Reform will win a few seats but that isn't really their long term aim, its just a foothold for what they really want, which is to take over the remains of the Tory Party and become the main opposition and fight the next election as such. Key to this is Farage winning his seat and becoming an MP, at the 8th time. They fully expect the Tory Party as we know it will crumble after their defeat and a number of remaining right wing Tory MPs will defect to Reform to create a 'new' Party with Farage at its head. All the other parties need to align and vote to keep Farage out, even Labour supporters should vote Tory!!!!

So much good sense....until the last sentence.