What's going on in Ukraine?

[laurent]

Milei appears to have announced some Super Etendard for Ukraine however It makes littles sense (France would have to retrofit these) and no one have used these since 2016.
I am not counting Argentina as they could not fly them due to the fact that the ejector seats did not have cartridges to fly safely.

France would not be able to train mechanics or pilots (or would likely need to rehire some old heads).

Of course with a dozen exocet these would be enough for the black sea fleet to scuttle.

[Hellraiser]

Foodie, do you draw any correlation between Moscow's covert efforts and the rise of populist hard Right parties and movements?

This was discussed way back in this thread and probably also the US politics thread.

It is fascinating the overlap between right wing touchstones and some of the statements coming out of Russia. The orthodox patriarch had a good ole rant about "the west being overrun by LGBT agenda" and it's word for word the guff that is polluting our discourse also.

Kirill is a former KGB agent, and current FSB asset.

[Hellraiser]

Armenia is leaving the CSTO.

[tabascoboy]

Armenia is leaving the CSTO.

Was only a matter of time after Putin openly sided with Azerbaijan a couple of years ago

[Uncle fester]

Armenia is leaving the CSTO.

Was only a matter of time after Putin openly sided with Azerbaijan a couple of years ago

Thought they were Turkish aligned and it wasn't so much that Putin supported the Azeris but that he refused to support Armenia?

[tabascoboy]

Armenia is leaving the CSTO.

Was only a matter of time after Putin openly sided with Azerbaijan a couple of years ago

Thought they were Turkish aligned and it wasn't so much that Putin supported the Azeris but that he refused to support Armenia?

That's probably a better way of putting it to be fair, Russia needs Azerbaijan co-operation for gas and goods exports now so they failed to fulfil their peace-keeping mandate in favour of keeping the relationship sweeter with the Azeris (as Armenia would claim it). In the Caucuses region of course things are rarely simple and straightforward.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians now control about 85% of Vovchansk. Made some large advances into the northern and eastern suburbs and took a lot of prisoners.

[Hellraiser]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa

The agreement clearly states that America supports Ukraine’s efforts to gain victory in this war. The agreement includes provisions for advanced defense systems like Patriot and fighter jet squadrons—that’s right, plural, squadrons—including, but not limited to, F-16s.

[tabascoboy]

Why is it I doubt his sincerity

Putin offers a ceasefire in the event of the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, within their administrative borders (most of which Russia does not control and actually withdrew from after a defeat of Russian formations, such as in Kherson), in addition to rejection of NATO accession plans.

[Hellraiser]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/13/euro ... index.html

[tabascoboy]

And kind of related to my earlier post, it's long but worth a read

Maxim Kalashnikov, a Russian futurist and friend of Strelkov-Girkin, known widely in narrow circles, predicts the freezing of the conflict on conditions unsuitable for the Russian Federation. His theories are rather exaggerated, but nevertheless, it is interesting to read the changes in the psychology of the rashists lately.

"Well, the prospect of operation “Berlin Wall 2” after the freeze of the war has emerged. The fact that it is inevitable is already visible. Both the United States and China are pushing us towards it.

For the former, it is beneficial because it was possible to achieve important strategic goals. The anti-Russian statehood of Ukraine is preserved on eighty percent of its territory. The Russian irredenta - the unification of all branches of the Rus in one country - has been thwarted. A bloody wedge has been driven between the Great Russians and the Little Russians. The NATO bloc has been replenished with Swedes and Finns, and now it is being pushed even more towards the Russian Federation. There is already a possibility that the economy will fall after the reduction of military orders; the credit and financial bloc of the Russian Federation remains in the hands of pro-Western forces. The reserves of the Central Bank of the 2022 model were taken away from the country. In general, the Yankees will not consider all this a failure.

The Chinese are also in profit. The Russian Federation is weakened and more closely tied to Beijing in the role of a junior ally. Our technological and economic dependence on Beijing is only growing; it has twisted our arms in terms of gas supplies. It is quite possible to freeze the war and establish a new order, avoiding unrest in the Russian Federation.

So I think freezing is inevitable. Moreover, as a result of the war, it turns out that our situation has not improved (let me remind you of Clausewitz’s principle). And the struggle will not end by any means.

The West clearly intends to carry out Operation Berlin Wall 2. That is, to make sure that life in Bandera’s 80 percent of Ukraine-Little Russia (and in the part of Novorossiya that we have not conquered) was better, of higher quality than in the new federal district of Novorossiya in the Russian Federation. By analogy with the GDR and West Berlin (actually the Federal Republic of Germany) in 1961-1989. When Germans from the poorer socialist part fled to the rich West. They will obviously try to use the proven scheme in b. Ukrainian SSR.

For this purpose, de facto external management is being introduced in Kyiv (so that the native elite does not steal everything), and for the security of three hundred billion taken from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, large loans will be issued for the reconstruction of Banderistan. They will build new thermal power plants there, develop the agricultural industry (the raw material periphery of the West, its breadbasket), and streamline the work of anti-corruption structures. They will build normal courts and a system of local elections. They will create the impression of “this is europe” next to the “dense Asian despotism”...
No, Ukrainian citizens will not live as prosperously as Europeans. But our enemy will try to make their life better than on the lost 20 percent of the land. In order to create the effect of the Berlin Wall, confusing the minds and hearts of the residents of the federal district of Novorossiya. Moreover, the bulk of the ruins and humanitarian crises fall to us after the war is frozen. Well, if you weren’t able to prepare and carry out a successful blitzkrieg, then your reap what you sow.

Moreover, the enemy will try to make very large expenditures on the Russian Federation to eliminate the devastation in new regions, thereby putting a stone on our necks that will drag us to the bottom. Combined with the continuation of the sanctions blockade and the need to spend a fair amount on the conversion of the military industry, which gained great momentum during the war. I believe that the enemy is betting that the Russian authorities will not survive economically. Well, 80% Ukraine will become a proxy for NATO, will be armed and will be trained to resume the war. Already taking into account the experience of the SMO, with the new Air Force, drones, etc. Maybe it will also receive American bases on its territory. Following the results of the SMO, the Anglo-Saxons are much less afraid of our nuclear weapons than before.

I consider this an extremely serious challenge. We need an extremely non-trivial plan for the new industrialization of the entire Russian Federation in order to prevent the effect of the Berlin Wall. Because simply pumping money into new regions while saving on the “old” lands of the Russian Federation is the path to turmoil. We need a general development project. Based on a clear project of the Future. And five-year plans.

Alas, so far our authorities have neither a clear image of the future Russia, nor a clearly articulated project of neo-industrialization, nor a successful practice of “taking off the raw materials needle” of the country as a whole."

[geordie_6]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

[fishfoodie]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

WTF should they ?

They took the initial onslaught from the best the Orcs could throw at them, after months of preparation, & they defeated them; & then they drove them back !!

From here on the Orcs get weaker, & Ukraine & their Allies get stronger, because their Allies have been awakened, & can no longer deny the danger at their borders. It's in everyone's interest to weaken Russia to the point where it can't launch a conventional offensive war ever again, but can rely on it's nuclear capability to defend itself.

I expect a decade of ramping up in the defense industries across NATO, to first replenish stores expended, & then to move Europe to a point where it no longer is dependent on whatever fucking loon the US elects, (probably excluding nuclear, but who the hell knows).

[Uncle fester]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

Aimed at the G7 summit and the useful idiot tankies who willl claim Ukraine are spurning peace overtures.

[geordie_6]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

Aimed at the G7 summit and the useful idiot tankies who willl claim Ukraine are spurning peace overtures.

Yup, so his domestic audience can continue to see him as a strong but benevolent leader, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary...

[geordie_6]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

WTF should they ?

They took the initial onslaught from the best the Orcs could throw at them, after months of preparation, & they defeated them; & then they drove them back !!

From here on the Orcs get weaker, & Ukraine & their Allies get stronger, because their Allies have been awakened, & can no longer deny the danger at their borders. It's in everyone's interest to weaken Russia to the point where it can't launch a conventional offensive war ever again, but can rely on it's nuclear capability to defend itself.

I expect a decade of ramping up in the defense industries across NATO, to first replenish stores expended, & then to move Europe to a point where it no longer is dependent on whatever fucking loon the US elects, (probably excluding nuclear, but who the hell knows).

Yes at the rate the Orcs are going, they are going to run out of all the tools for mechanised warfare, but they're also losing things like fuel/supply trucks and radar setups etc at an astonishing rate.

[petej]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

WTF should they ?

They took the initial onslaught from the best the Orcs could throw at them, after months of preparation, & they defeated them; & then they drove them back !!

From here on the Orcs get weaker, & Ukraine & their Allies get stronger, because their Allies have been awakened, & can no longer deny the danger at their borders. It's in everyone's interest to weaken Russia to the point where it can't launch a conventional offensive war ever again, but can rely on it's nuclear capability to defend itself.

I expect a decade of ramping up in the defense industries across NATO, to first replenish stores expended, & then to move Europe to a point where it no longer is dependent on whatever fucking loon the US elects, (probably excluding nuclear, but who the hell knows).

Yes at the rate the Orcs are going, they are going to run out of all the tools for mechanised warfare, but they're also losing things like fuel/supply trucks and radar setups etc at an astonishing rate.

The reporting on Putin is just weird. They don't treat him like the dictator arsehole he is. Then again I suspect the reporting on Stalin and Hitler was similar until the full start of ww2 in 39 for us and even later for US when the pearl harbor attack forced their hand.

[Hellraiser]

Realistically, Ukraine aren't going to accept a ceasefire that allows Russia to take yet another bite out of their country.

WTF should they ?

They took the initial onslaught from the best the Orcs could throw at them, after months of preparation, & they defeated them; & then they drove them back !!

From here on the Orcs get weaker, & Ukraine & their Allies get stronger, because their Allies have been awakened, & can no longer deny the danger at their borders. It's in everyone's interest to weaken Russia to the point where it can't launch a conventional offensive war ever again, but can rely on it's nuclear capability to defend itself.

I expect a decade of ramping up in the defense industries across NATO, to first replenish stores expended, & then to move Europe to a point where it no longer is dependent on whatever fucking loon the US elects, (probably excluding nuclear, but who the hell knows).

Yes at the rate the Orcs are going, they are going to run out of all the tools for mechanised warfare, but they're also losing things like fuel/supply trucks and radar setups etc at an astonishing rate.

Their burn rate for IFVs is so bad that OSINT analysts reviewing recent satellite imagery of storage depots revised their estimates of when the Russians will no longer be able to replace losses to late 2024/early 2025.

It's part of the reason for the existence of assault sheds/turtle tanks. They fit seating for infantry dismounts inside to offset the chronic shortage of IFVs.

[geordie_6]

WTF should they ?

They took the initial onslaught from the best the Orcs could throw at them, after months of preparation, & they defeated them; & then they drove them back !!

From here on the Orcs get weaker, & Ukraine & their Allies get stronger, because their Allies have been awakened, & can no longer deny the danger at their borders. It's in everyone's interest to weaken Russia to the point where it can't launch a conventional offensive war ever again, but can rely on it's nuclear capability to defend itself.

I expect a decade of ramping up in the defense industries across NATO, to first replenish stores expended, & then to move Europe to a point where it no longer is dependent on whatever fucking loon the US elects, (probably excluding nuclear, but who the hell knows).

Yes at the rate the Orcs are going, they are going to run out of all the tools for mechanised warfare, but they're also losing things like fuel/supply trucks and radar setups etc at an astonishing rate.

Their burn rate for IFVs is so bad that OSINT analysts reviewing recent satellite imagery of storage depots revised their estimates of when the Russians will no longer be able to replace losses to late 2024/early 2025.

It's part of the reason for the existence of assault sheds/turtle tanks. They fit seating for infantry dismounts inside to offset the chronic shortage of IFVs.

We're also potentially going to see an increased rate of attrition for them, as the stuff they're going to pull out of storage now are the machines they either opted to leave due to the condition they were in, or cannibalised for parts. Similar to how we're seeing an increase in the number of T-55s being lost, its because they are being pressed into service.

[Hellraiser]

Yes at the rate the Orcs are going, they are going to run out of all the tools for mechanised warfare, but they're also losing things like fuel/supply trucks and radar setups etc at an astonishing rate.

Their burn rate for IFVs is so bad that OSINT analysts reviewing recent satellite imagery of storage depots revised their estimates of when the Russians will no longer be able to replace losses to late 2024/early 2025.

It's part of the reason for the existence of assault sheds/turtle tanks. They fit seating for infantry dismounts inside to offset the chronic shortage of IFVs.

We're also potentially going to see an increased rate of attrition for them, as the stuff they're going to pull out of storage now are the machines they either opted to leave due to the condition they were in, or cannibalised for parts. Similar to how we're seeing an increase in the number of T-55s being lost, its because they are being pressed into service.

Just today I read that BMP-1s are being cannibalized for parts for BMP-2s, even though they are not truly interchangeable, because there is basically no BMP-2s left in storage. As a class of vehicle the BMP-2 will go extinct by 2025.

[geordie_6]

Their burn rate for IFVs is so bad that OSINT analysts reviewing recent satellite imagery of storage depots revised their estimates of when the Russians will no longer be able to replace losses to late 2024/early 2025.

It's part of the reason for the existence of assault sheds/turtle tanks. They fit seating for infantry dismounts inside to offset the chronic shortage of IFVs.

We're also potentially going to see an increased rate of attrition for them, as the stuff they're going to pull out of storage now are the machines they either opted to leave due to the condition they were in, or cannibalised for parts. Similar to how we're seeing an increase in the number of T-55s being lost, its because they are being pressed into service.

Just today I read that BMP-1s are being cannibalized for parts for BMP-2s, even though they are not truly interchangeable, because there is basically no BMP-2s left in storage. As a class of vehicle the BMP-2 will go extinct by 2025.

Truly astonishing. No wonder he put forward his desperate peace proposal...

[tabascoboy]

Thinking seems to be that ranting presenters like these are given airtime solely to make Putin look calm, considered and reasonable to the masses by comparison....

[fishfoodie]

Which would be the equivalent in death toll of using WMDs on Ukraine, & would justify response in kind, like maybe sending F-16s up to reduce the 4x RBMK reactors near Petersburg to rubble, & triggering a Chernobyl near Putins home town.

[Hellraiser]

[Niegs]

His four points reminded me of the comments section below news clips featuring Canada's Conservative Party leader having a go at Trudeau. I may be basing this on a bubble of people who fit those criteria shouting loudly into social media, but that dweeb (Pierre Pollievre) seems to have borrowed from that playbook and will probably become the next PM.

The regular and even contradictory lying seems to have pushed so many people into that conspiracy realm where they refuse to trust any 'main stream media' and where 'doing their own research' could be a way to circumvent it, they're not doing any actual research to get real answers (like the people who write to my mayor regularly), but just listen to other nutters in the echo chamber.

[Hellraiser]

A new ultimatum to Ukraine and Europe. Part 1

Putin* came to the Russian Foreign Ministry and presented his political picture of the world in Ukraine, the structure of Europe and the world in general.

Let’s start with Ukraine. She was essentially presented with a new ultimatum. Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire territory of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Transfer of these territories along the administrative borders of the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO and the country’s “nuclear-free status.” The US and EU will have to lift all sanctions against the Russian Federation, and frozen Russian assets must be returned. Only if all these conditions are met can there be a truce and negotiations.

We have already written many times (for example, here ) that these are the conditions that the Kremlin considers the only possible ones. They are completely impossible for Ukraine, since these are not negotiations, but capitulation. Moreover, with a guaranteed new invasion of the Russian Federation within two years and with attempts during this time to create a full-scale political crisis in Ukraine.

Why would Putin* offer terms of surrender right now? Then, in the coming days, an international meeting will be held in Switzerland, at which the “peace formula” of Vladimir Zelensky will be discussed. And after this discussion, international pressure will begin to be exerted on the Russian Federation to accept Ukrainian conditions for a peaceful resolution of the issue. Putin* made it clear with his ultimatum that he did not intend to discuss any conditions other than those that he himself voiced. He doesn’t care about pressure; something else is more important: it was necessary to indicate that the upcoming discussions in Switzerland in no way correspond to reality, and therefore are useless.

In addition to the conditions for Ukraine, Putin* also outlined the conditions for the United States and Europe. The United States, according to him, dictates to European countries how to behave. They follow European politicians, are rude and generally humiliate the Old World. It was the United States that did not accept the Russian Federation’s proposals for a new world order in the 21st century, which is why now there is a war. They must come to their senses and reduce their military presence in Europe. And European countries must finally see that they are being humiliated and infringed and pursue a policy independent of the United States.

In this part of his speech, Putin* played the usual role of a taxi driver-geopolitician. Russian propaganda has already begun to spread these theses of his throughout European countries through social networks and those media outlets that willingly take money from the Russian Federation for publications. The Russian Federation will try to promote as much as possible in Europe theses about Europeans humiliated and insulted by the United States, in the hope that in addition to Hamas supporters, leftists, greens and other young and old idealists who dream of justice will take to the streets of Amsterdam and other cities.

Putin* has always proceeded from the fact that European democracies are weak by definition, because power is dependent on the electorate, and therefore is afraid of serious external conflicts if even a small part of society does not support them. The entire foreign policy of the Russian Federation since 2008 has been based and built on this premise. It worked for a long time and led to Russia invading Ukraine. In 2024, European leaders began to take unusual steps, not only uttering the usual expressions of concern, but talking about military intervention in the war in Ukraine, providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons and aircraft. That is, they became bolder. Therefore, he decided to raise the stakes and try to bring down this courage. This is unlikely to work with France, Great Britain, Sweden and Finland. It’s unlikely that it will even work with Germany, but Putin* is confident of the opposite.
@Volyamedia

A new ultimatum to Ukraine and Europe. Part 2: You can’t negotiate with a maniac

Putin’s speech* confirms what sources in the Russian army and the presidential administration have been telling us all spring, and we are writing to you. He demands the surrender of Ukraine because he is confident that he is winning the war. He is convinced of this by the daily reports of Gerasimov and people from his inner circle.

The confidence that everything is going as it should in the war has grown so strong that after a meeting with the commanders of the troop groups in Ukraine, Putin* called them classy specialists who gave him a feeling of “hope.”

In the Russian war, everything is very far from “as it should be.” It takes more and more soldiers to keep Putin in good spirits among Russian generals, and the real results amount to extremely slow and costly progress. Moreover, it is impossible in principle to turn this advancement into a big victory. Because with the personnel that is in the army, it is impossible to accomplish strategic tasks: to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine completely or partially until they lose combat capability; achieve decisive superiority on any sector of the front in order to turn this superiority into a major victory with the collapse of the enemy’s defenses and the capture of strategically important areas of Ukraine (not individual villages or forest plantations, but regions).

The high losses of the Russian Armed Forces will become even higher as the intensity of hostilities increases. And by mid-to-late summer, this will inevitably lead to the fact that the army will lose its numerical advantage, initiative, and will destroy itself in attempts to fulfill the promises of its generals given to Putin*. At the same time, the army will not be replenished in the required volume, because the victors do not carry out large-scale mobilization.

This will all most likely end with another defeat, after which Putin* will give the go-ahead for the long-prepared recruitment of 1.5 million recruits.

The author of the tg channel “Be or” wrote an intelligent post analyzing Putin’s speech* and came to the conclusion that the main task of all progressive humanity is to deprive Putin* of faith in success at the front and faith in victory. It is this belief that pushes the Russian president to issue ultimatums and continue the war. It won’t work. You cannot deprive a fanatic of his faith.

If you think that a major defeat, major mobilization or anything else can deprive Putin* of faith in success, then you are mistaken. It will be necessary to collect 3 million, not one and a half, he will give such an order. If you need to dial 5, he will dial five. Precisely because he maniacally believes in his victory. Manic, because the main arguments are “Russia never loses” and “We defeated Hitler, so no one can defeat us.” This is not a joke; one of our team members personally heard both from one of the main ideologists of this war and Putin’s closest ally*. Moreover, this was said back in 2019, when preparations for a future war began with a project to amend the Constitution of the Russian Federation.

Such manic faith can disappear only in one case, when the “believer” stops breathing. And we’re not talking about Putin alone*, there are hundreds of maniacal servants of the same cult around him.

A maniac cannot be cured or convinced. It can either be isolated or eliminated. And you don’t need to be afraid of him. It should not be underestimated, but it should not be feared either. These are the main tasks that European and American politicians, and Ukrainian ones too, need to solve (instead of rushing at the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and preventing their own army from fighting).
@Volyamedia

[Hellraiser]

BILD visited the Rheinmetall repair plant in Ukraine

The German arms company Rheinmetall has opened a new plant in western Ukraine, where it repairs Leopard 1 main battle tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles.

“The vehicles have proven themselves very well and have saved many lives of Ukrainian soldiers, since the Marder armor is significantly superior to the armor of older Soviet models,” says Markus Faber, a defense expert with the Free Democratic Party (FDP) (pictured 1).

Ukrainians highly value these machines for their protection, says Bjorn Bernhard, CEO of Rheinmetall Landsysteme GmbH (pictured 3rd left). “We are also receiving very positive feedback from soldiers compared to other Western infantry fighting vehicles,” he notes.

According to Bernhard, most of the Marder infantry fighting vehicles that come here for repairs were blown up by mines. If only the undercarriage is damaged, the Marder can be up and running in three weeks, he says.

The location of the Rheinmetall plant is kept secret because it is a target of special interest to the Russian army. “We are aware that as a tank factory we are always a strategic target for Putin’s air force,” says Bernhard.

Rheinmetall also wants to repair Leopard 2 and other Western tanks in Ukraine in the future.

@BILD_Russian

[Hellraiser]

Further to the above, seems Rheinmetall wants to install Skyranger turrets on the Leopard 1 chassis for Ukraine. They have a decent amount of them in still in storage so it's actually quite feasible they could provide several dozen units to supplement Gepards. It would be a significant increase in SHORAD capabilities for Ukraine and cheaper than using new build Boxer or Lynx chassis.

[Hellraiser]

The next generation of GMLRS. Basically an M270/MARS II double rocket pod mounted on a HX3 8x8.



https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/rhe ... mers-exec/

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

Northdrop Grumann to be the first US defence contractor to build a munitions facility in Ukraine.

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/nor ... 1699516312

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

Big thing that strikes me about his defence pact with North Korea is how previous defence pacts have worked out, like for Armenia.

[Uncle fester]

Lord haw haw and his completely unsurprising views.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... dApp_Other

[petej]

Big thing that strikes me about his defence pact with North Korea is how previous defence pacts have worked out, like for Armenia.

I expect this to lead to Ukraine getting more aid and weapons from South Korea.

[Uncle fester]

This is just hilarious.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/7DmtBwS9Y0

[geordie_6]

This is just hilarious.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/7DmtBwS9Y0

Half expected him to blow a kiss at the end there.

[TB63]

A Russian soldier finishes off his comrade with an assault rifle shot to the head after he was wounded by FPV drone

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/18 ... VSk8g&s=19

Fuck.....

Injured soldier asks for it...