The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[sockwithaticket]

So that's 3 now, right? 2 candidates and one of Sunak's police protection detail.

Rancid self-interest is at the core of the Tory party.

4 now. The Gambling Commission are also investigating the Tory's director of campaigning Tony Lee, who is married Laura Saunders, the other candidate under investigation. Probably explains why Lee took a leave of absence from the Tory's yesterday.

So that's 2 candidates, the Tory's campaigns director and one of Sunak's police protection officers.

Ah, I saw that headline that he'd taken a leave of absence, but no more.

I suppose most of them are well aware they're on a sinking ship with little and are trying to get a little something for their trouble.

[C69]

The Tories have now had to ditch their new campaign strap line.

"I wouldn't bet on Labour"

It's so fucking hilarious, you couldn't write it.
It makes Yes Minister and the Thick of it look more credible than the Tory Pantomime.
Pmsl

[tabascoboy]

Plenty of them already abandoned ship before the election but wonder if scores more who thought they were in comfy safe Tory seats will join them if they are kicked out in a fortnight, and not stick around in politics for the GE after that...

[C69]

Looks like imho there may be a comeback for the Big Dog in 2028 with along with Nigel and a Reform Tory golden ticket.

[Insane_Homer]

Every response to anything he says in tonight's debate should be "I wouldn't bet on it!"

[C69]

Every response to anything he says in tonight's debate should be "I wouldn't bet on it!"

Bingo lol

[Lobby]

Every response to anything he says in tonight's debate should be "I wouldn't bet on it!"

Given that the Tory's current 'supermajority' strategy seems to be based on saying we are going to lose, please vote for us, someone should ask Sunak how many of his MPs have placed bets on Labour winning?

[tabascoboy]

Twitter is having fun

[Raggs]

It's not a surprise the bookies spotted this, the money going on the election date was massively higher hours before the election was officially called.

I missed this one a couple of days ago. Nice people...but regarding the candidate vetting. Reform paid a Tory donor owned company to vet the candidates and they are now suing that company for not doing so.
So it's not the calibre of candidates they attract but the vetting

A Reform UK candidate tweeted derogatory comments about the IQ of ethnic minorities, it has emerged.

Edward Oakenfull, Reform UK's candidate for Derbyshire Dales, made the offensive posts on X last year, referring to the IQ of sub-Saharan Africans.

The Conservative Party said he posted a "number of Islamophobic and racist comments".

Mr Oakenfull has told the BBC his comments were "taken out of context", adding he has since deleted his X account because it was being used by others to carry out a political "hit job".

The Reform UK website says Mr Oakenfull is a 56-year-old property developer and investor who lives in Denby, near Belper, Derbyshire.

On the website, he said he had "been despairing at how our country has been run for decades and, for the love of my community and country, decided that I needed to make a stand".

He tweeted the comments about sub-Saharan Africans "diluting" the UK's IQ in July last year.

Then in November, he tweeted: "Nothing good will come from importing yet more Muslims", and the following month, said the BBC chairman's ethnicity was "another reason to cancel" the licence fee.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgxxjzn738go

It gets better... The company they hired doesn't do the vetting, they supply you all the tools/access etc to do the vetting yourself, but you still have to do it. So it looks like they didn't actually do anything wrong!

[SaintK]

Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an election timing bet, has just released a statement through her solicitor.
She says she's co-operating with the Gambling Commission and also considering legal action against the BBC.
"Ms Saunders will be co-operating with the Gambling Commission and has nothing further to add," the statement says.
"It is inappropriate to conduct any investigation of this kind via the media, and doing so risks jeopardising the work of the Gambling Commission and the integrity of its investigation.
Quote Message
The publication of the BBC's story is premature and is a clear infringement of Ms Saunders' privacy rights. She is considering legal action against the BBC and any other publishers who infringe her privacy rights."

[C69]

There's going to be a lot more Tory candidates names apparently.
This is fucking hilarious

[sockwithaticket]

For balance Labour's Clacton candidate is going around saying that he's standing for every black and brown person in the UK.

Somehow, I don't think that's a winning strategy in a a 95%+ white constituency that's quite likely to provide Farage with his first parliamentary electoral win. Not that Labour were likely to win there anyway, but surely you want to make as good a showing as possible if you put someone up to stand.

[fishfoodie]

How come the Cop gets arrested & presumably questioned under caution, & all the rest get to pretend like it's all a big misunderstanding ?

Is this just the latest example of the Met being the Tories bitch ?

[C69]

For balance Labour's Clacton candidate is going around saying that he's standing for every black and brown person in the UK.

Somehow, I don't think that's a winning strategy in a a 95%+ white constituency that's quite likely to provide Farage with his first parliamentary electoral win. Not that Labour were likely to win there anyway, but surely you want to make as good a showing as possible if you put someone up to stand.

Fighting racism should be applauded, especially in a fetid cesspit where they have no chance of winning.

[C69]

Dear fuck I forgot Fiona Bruce is on QT.
Useless establishment Tory lacky

[Raggs]

Looks like I'm voting green then. Almost 1000 people took part in a poll to try and find the most likely to beat the Tories, green won 53% of first choice votes (with Labour and lib dem each getting about 20%). After eliminating lib dem, green went to 66% using second choice voting.

Hope it helps!

[C69]

Sunak is going to be eviscerated by the public.
Starmer given a tame ride

[fishfoodie]

Sunak is going to be eviscerated by the public.
Starmer given a tame ride

If it was a boxing match it would have been stopped already, because one of the participants has been floored repeatedly in the first round, & somehow a 7 stone weakling is up against a heavyweight

[fishfoodie]

How come the Cop gets arrested & presumably questioned under caution, & all the rest get to pretend like it's all a big misunderstanding ?

Is this just the latest example of the Met being the Tories bitch ?

... and to answer my own question ...



a half dozen people in CCHQ being investigated !!!

and my understanding is that when two people decide to commit a fraud, that tacks on "conspiracy", to the list of charges, so I imagine that if there was any communication between any, repeat, any of the participants in this, then all of them are part of a conspiracy that could land them all in an overcrowded prison !!

[_Os_]

STOP THE BETS!

This scandal has potential to get massive. Could be a full on gambling ring. Doesn't even matter if they broke the law now. They're almost literally playing a game with the UK's future, which directly feeds into a general view of them. It looks corrupt, which feeds into another view of them. Lack of ethics, feeds into another view. It's everything rolled into one. But it gets worse ... easy for people to understand in the UK lots of people punt on stuff like the grand national, the small amounts also make it easier to understand.

We now know how the bookies picked it up, the increase in volume was crazy (gambling ring!). Didn't make sense how one guy who wasn't betting much at all could be caught (gambling ring!). The question now is how many people are involved (gambling ring!).

[Insane_Homer]

"The Avatar was now completely out of control. Furious that the only applause was for the audience questions. Furious that there was not more gratitude for him. Furious that no matter how patronising and condescending he became, no one warmed to him or believed a word he said. At one point he was even laughed at....." [John Crace]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... in-friends

[_Os_]

Election campaign from hell continues ...

QT audience were not gentle with Sunak, heckled with "shame on you!" during the programme on the Rwanda Scheme and as the credits rolled. Only two more weeks of this.

[_Os_]

I'm becoming a bit of a fan of Reform loony candidates. Some of the most crazy shit I've ever heard/read. Another one wades in ...

“How can we say with certainty that tinned food, car emissions, radio waves, food additives, mercury fillings or any other manmade influence isn’t causing an increase in gender dysphoria?

“Looking in basic biological evolutionary terms, as a rule of thumb, a species normally evolves to reproduce more rather than less. Which in my overly simplified mind would indicate that gender dysphoria is a man-made condition, not an evolutionary one.”

[Tichtheid]

Dear fuck I forgot Fiona Bruce is on QT.
Useless establishment Tory lacky

Torygraph readers are being told this morning, "The BBC has given up any pretence at impartiality"


On another note I had to get a new battery put in my car by the RAC yesterday, I've not done badly with that car, the only money I've spent on the thing in the 16 years I've had it is brake pads, tyres and batteries etc, oh and a new exhaust about five or six years ago.
However, the warranty on the battery was 7 days out after four years. The guy tried to get it through on the guarantee but the system on his laptop was set up in such a way as to make that impossible to do, no discretion.

I don't really have a problem with that but later last night I started thinking about what happens under a private health care insurance scheme for health treatment and how some people might let an insurance payment slip just that one week because of other commitments - "I'll make it up once the new washing machine is paid for". Sod's law dictates that is when you're going to need healthcare.

[Lobby]

STOP THE BETS!

This scandal has potential to get massive. Could be a full on gambling ring. Doesn't even matter if they broke the law now. They're almost literally playing a game with the UK's future, which directly feeds into a general view of them. It looks corrupt, which feeds into another view of them. Lack of ethics, feeds into another view. It's everything rolled into one. But it gets worse ... easy for people to understand in the UK lots of people punt on stuff like the grand national, the small amounts also make it easier to understand.

We now know how the bookies picked it up, the increase in volume was crazy (gambling ring!). Didn't make sense how one guy who wasn't betting much at all could be caught (gambling ring!). The question now is how many people are involved (gambling ring!).

I had a look at the Guido website yesterday for a laugh. He's desperately trying to claim that the Tory betters have done nothing wrong and that the real scandal is Labour lefties at the Gambling Commission trying to interfere in the election.

[Tichtheid]

I had a look at the Guido website yesterday for a laugh. He's desperately trying to claim that the Tory betters have done nothing wrong and that the real scandal is Labour lefties at the Gambling Commission trying to interfere in the election.

I went to have a look on that recommendation, however the site demanded that I disable my add blocker in order to read even the front page.

I would for most, but not for that site

[Lobby]

Looks like I'm voting green then. Almost 1000 people took part in a poll to try and find the most likely to beat the Tories, green won 53% of first choice votes (with Labour and lib dem each getting about 20%). After eliminating lib dem, green went to 66% using second choice voting.

Hope it helps!

The Getvoting website includes seat by seat recommendations for tactical voting with the reasons behind them, along with data on how many constituents could vote tactically.

GetVoting.org's recommendations are based on multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) polling. Their recommendations include voting Labour in 370 seats, Lib Dem in 69, Green in three, SNP in seven, Plaid Cymru in two, and to “vote with your heart” in 181.

You can check their recommendations for your constituency here:

https://www.getvoting.org/tactical-voting/

[Rhubarb & Custard]

is Labour lefties at the Gambling Commission trying to interfere in the election.

Okay, I know some of the folk there, and some for sure are voting Labour this election, or so they claim. But mostly the sense is they're not a proper regulator (and they're not they're more a gatherer of evidence for a yet to be defined purpose), but otherwise it's just go along to get along, and if the senior males at the GC accidentally end up at yet another shindig by one of the gambling firms replete with near naked young ladies well them's just the breaks they need to tough out, and for sure a number of the senior folk at the GC think they work really hard for their 6 figures and shouldn't have to support poor (read lazy) people.

[Lobby]

I had a look at the Guido website yesterday for a laugh. He's desperately trying to claim that the Tory betters have done nothing wrong and that the real scandal is Labour lefties at the Gambling Commission trying to interfere in the election.

I went to have a look on that recommendation, however the site demanded that I disable my add blocker in order to read even the front page.

I would for most, but not for that site

To give you an insight into the depth of Guido's analysis:

"It’s curious to note that everyone investigated so far is a Tory or works for a Tory. Do Labour MPs not bet on the election date? For the Gambling Commission to act so politically is high risk for a public body, who are supposed to maintain studious neutrality during election purdah"

He appears to have forgotten that Labour MPs won't have been privy to the date of the election before Sunak announced it, unlike the various NO. 10 insiders now being investigated.

He goes on to try and suggest that its suspicious that one of the Commissioners previously worked for the CPS for a couple of years over 12 years ago when Starmer was its head and that this shows the GC is biased. Even some of his batshit readers aren't swallowing this particular line.

[dpedin]

I'm becoming a bit of a fan of Reform loony candidates. Some of the most crazy shit I've ever heard/read. Another one wades in ...

“How can we say with certainty that tinned food, car emissions, radio waves, food additives, mercury fillings or any other manmade influence isn’t causing an increase in gender dysphoria?

“Looking in basic biological evolutionary terms, as a rule of thumb, a species normally evolves to reproduce more rather than less. Which in my overly simplified mind would indicate that gender dysphoria is a man-made condition, not an evolutionary one.”

He got the 'my overly simplified mind' bit right to be fair!

[Tichtheid]

I had a look at the Guido website yesterday for a laugh. He's desperately trying to claim that the Tory betters have done nothing wrong and that the real scandal is Labour lefties at the Gambling Commission trying to interfere in the election.

I went to have a look on that recommendation, however the site demanded that I disable my add blocker in order to read even the front page.

I would for most, but not for that site

To give you an insight into the depth of Guido's analysis:

"It’s curious to note that everyone investigated so far is a Tory or works for a Tory. Do Labour MPs not bet on the election date? For the Gambling Commission to act so politically is high risk for a public body, who are supposed to maintain studious neutrality during election purdah"

He appears to have forgotten that Labour MPs won't have been privy to the date of the election before Sunak announced it, unlike the various NO. 10 insiders now being investigated.

He goes on to try and suggest that its suspicious that one of the Commissioners previously worked for the CPS for a couple of years over 12 years ago when Starmer was its head and that this shows the GC is biased. Even some of his batshit readers aren't swallowing this particular line.

Whilst this is going on I hope the bigger fish of the PPE affair, fast tracking and other billions wasted isn't somehow overlooked in the next couple of weeks in the run up to polling day.

I want the electorate to be furious and go out and vote, not sit at home and expect a Labour victory.

[C69]

I note that the new line of questioning Labour politicians is about Corbyn.
Very strange indeed. I also hope that the PPE scandal is brought up. Certainly in interviews I have seen previously, it's going to be one of Reeves priorities.
Squeaky bum time out there for a few Tory MPs and their donors and friends who trousered £ billions.
Still awaiting the names of the other Tory betting miscreants.

In another blow to Sunak, Chris Skidmore the fire Tory Minister has said he is voting Labour.
What a shit show of a campaign the tawdry Tories are enduring.
It's like death by a thousand cuts.

[Lobby]

Dear fuck I forgot Fiona Bruce is on QT.
Useless establishment Tory lacky

Torygraph readers are being told this morning, "The BBC has given up any pretence at impartiality"


On another note I had to get a new battery put in my car by the RAC yesterday, I've not done badly with that car, the only money I've spent on the thing in the 16 years I've had it is brake pads, tyres and batteries etc, oh and a new exhaust about five or six years ago.
However, the warranty on the battery was 7 days out after four years. The guy tried to get it through on the guarantee but the system on his laptop was set up in such a way as to make that impossible to do, no discretion.

I don't really have a problem with that but later last night I started thinking about what happens under a private health care insurance scheme for health treatment and how some people might let an insurance payment slip just that one week because of other commitments - "I'll make it up once the new washing machine is paid for". Sod's law dictates that is when you're going to need healthcare.

Agree completely, but I think this scandal has traction because its clear and easy to understand, and also reminds people of partygate and the sense that the Tories just don't believe that the rules apply to them.

[Raggs]

Looks like I'm voting green then. Almost 1000 people took part in a poll to try and find the most likely to beat the Tories, green won 53% of first choice votes (with Labour and lib dem each getting about 20%). After eliminating lib dem, green went to 66% using second choice voting.

Hope it helps!

The Getvoting website includes seat by seat recommendations for tactical voting with the reasons behind them, along with data on how many constituents could vote tactically.

GetVoting.org's recommendations are based on multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) polling. Their recommendations include voting Labour in 370 seats, Lib Dem in 69, Green in three, SNP in seven, Plaid Cymru in two, and to “vote with your heart” in 181.

You can check their recommendations for your constituency here:

https://www.getvoting.org/tactical-voting/

I realise that their data comes from a proper polling company, but I tend to think that polls lose accuracy one you get to the regions. 42000 surveyed is good for a countrywide judgement, but it breaks down to an average of just 67 voters per constituency. Out of that 20 or so said they'd vote tactically.

The east wight primary vote wouldn't contain any reform or Tory voters, but was almost 1000 people. If those thousand actually follow through with the tactical vote (and I suspect most will), that's a fair old chunk of votes, when there's around 57k voters.

Especially as there's people like me who didn't vote in the poll but will be following the result.

Especially especially when about 51% of the vote is expected to go to Tory or reform.

[tabascoboy]

So this is sounding less and less like "giving young people a new opportunity to contribute to society" and more like a punishment for those least likely to be voting Tory.

PM suggests curbs on finance or driving licences for 18-year-olds who refuse service during challenging Question Time leaders’ special


Rishi Sunak floats sanctions on young people for refusing national service

Rishi Sunak has indicated that young people might face restrictions on access to finance or driving licences if they refuse to do national service, as he faced a TV quizzing from voters.

Asked during a BBC Question Time special what sanctions people could face for declining to take part in the Conservative policy of compulsory national service for all 18-year-olds, the prime minister pointed to “driving licences, or the access to finance, all sorts of other things”.

Questioned on whether this could mean denying young people bank cards, he replied: “There’s lot of different models around Europe.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... al-service

[C69]

Looks like I'm voting green then. Almost 1000 people took part in a poll to try and find the most likely to beat the Tories, green won 53% of first choice votes (with Labour and lib dem each getting about 20%). After eliminating lib dem, green went to 66% using second choice voting.

Hope it helps!

The Getvoting website includes seat by seat recommendations for tactical voting with the reasons behind them, along with data on how many constituents could vote tactically.

GetVoting.org's recommendations are based on multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) polling. Their recommendations include voting Labour in 370 seats, Lib Dem in 69, Green in three, SNP in seven, Plaid Cymru in two, and to “vote with your heart” in 181.

You can check their recommendations for your constituency here:

https://www.getvoting.org/tactical-voting/

I realise that their data comes from a proper polling company, but I tend to think that polls lose accuracy one you get to the regions. 42000 surveyed is good for a countrywide judgement, but it breaks down to an average of just 67 voters per constituency. Out of that 20 or so said they'd vote tactically.

The east wight primary vote wouldn't contain any reform or Tory voters, but was almost 1000 people. If those thousand actually follow through with the tactical vote (and I suspect most will), that's a fair old chunk of votes, when there's around 57k voters.

Especially as there's people like me who didn't vote in the poll but will be following the result.

Especially especially when about 51% of the vote is expected to go to Tory or reform.

51% ?

[sockwithaticket]

So this is sounding less and less like "giving young people a new opportunity to contribute to society" and more like a punishment for those least likely to be voting Tory.

PM suggests curbs on finance or driving licences for 18-year-olds who refuse service during challenging Question Time leaders’ special


Rishi Sunak floats sanctions on young people for refusing national service

Rishi Sunak has indicated that young people might face restrictions on access to finance or driving licences if they refuse to do national service, as he faced a TV quizzing from voters.

Asked during a BBC Question Time special what sanctions people could face for declining to take part in the Conservative policy of compulsory national service for all 18-year-olds, the prime minister pointed to “driving licences, or the access to finance, all sorts of other things”.

Questioned on whether this could mean denying young people bank cards, he replied: “There’s lot of different models around Europe.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... al-service

It's astonishing that they're tripling down on this. Even the demo this is supposed to appeal to have grandchildren who would be impacted.

Some irony in the party wailing about the 'war on motorists' threatening to take licenses away over something so trivial.

[Tichtheid]

If they want people to serve their community or nation they should get the pricks that are their pals and the businesses they run to pay their fucking share of tax.

The nation would be better served with people who take responsibility for more than the end of their own nose.

[sockwithaticket]

If the social contract is maintained and people are able to feel economically secure, charity and volunteering occurs across the population at decent rates anyway. Or at least at rates where it's not necessary to mandate it.

That's where DavCam's "Big Society" fell down (if it were ever earnestly invoked), from austerity onwards they started ripping up the social contract. And by now they've not only torn it to shreds, but they've burnt it to ashes and then pissed on those for good measure.

[Paddington Bear]

To be honest, the thing that kills volunteering is the sheer weight of regulatory requirements being pushed on to voluntary bodies. I probably end up doing over 100 hours of regulatory stuff for my cricket club a year, almost none of it having a practical use