The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[Raggs]

it's a long time since I've been in a betting shop, can you no longer place a cash bet? which is to say why are all these people betting on accounts in their names? okay I'm crosser they're happy to act on inside info, but it's not exactly inspiring so many people are on the face of it so bad at being criminals

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

[Margin__Walker]

it's a long time since I've been in a betting shop, can you no longer place a cash bet? which is to say why are all these people betting on accounts in their names? okay I'm crosser they're happy to act on inside info, but it's not exactly inspiring so many people are on the face of it so bad at being criminals

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

Yep. It was a big spike.

[Paddington Bear]

it's a long time since I've been in a betting shop, can you no longer place a cash bet? which is to say why are all these people betting on accounts in their names? okay I'm crosser they're happy to act on inside info, but it's not exactly inspiring so many people are on the face of it so bad at being criminals

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

When did the bookies stop taking bets on it? As IIRC strong rumours were coming out from lunchtime and the announcement was 4/5ish

[Raggs]

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

When did the bookies stop taking bets on it? As IIRC strong rumours were coming out from lunchtime and the announcement was 4/5ish

Don't know, but he announced on the 22nd, and there was a spike on the 21st... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -election/

[SaintK]

it's a long time since I've been in a betting shop, can you no longer place a cash bet? which is to say why are all these people betting on accounts in their names? okay I'm crosser they're happy to act on inside info, but it's not exactly inspiring so many people are on the face of it so bad at being criminals

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

First Labour candidate to get caught up in it.
Except the twat bet against himself winning

Labour says as soon as they were told by the Gambling Commission they moved quickly to suspend Kevin Craig.

But interestingly, he was not suspended because he had bet on the date of the general election - that was the reason the Conservatives withdrew support from two of their candidates.

As I understand it, what appears to have happened is this Labour candidate in this seat, which has a large Conservative majority, actually bet that he himself would lose the se

[C69]

Well that's where it's likely to be a tip of the iceberg thing. Those in bother right now were seemingly the ones stupid enough to place bets in their name/with their own accounts.

There'll likely be more who were more careful (got someone else to place the bet etc). Assume they are going through all bets placed in the small window on the election date with a fine tooth comb at the moment.

There was a ludicrous increase in betting volume that day, I suspect they'll go over every single one.

First Labour candidate to get caught up in it.
Except the twat bet against himself winning

Labour says as soon as they were told by the Gambling Commission they moved quickly to suspend Kevin Craig.

But interestingly, he was not suspended because he had bet on the date of the general election - that was the reason the Conservatives withdrew support from two of their candidates.

As I understand it, what appears to have happened is this Labour candidate in this seat, which has a large Conservative majority, actually bet that he himself would lose the se

Thick as pig shit. Deserves a kick in the balls.

[Margin__Walker]

What a moron. That's some effort. Managing to ruin a key GE attack line in the process for Labour. "They're all at it" to the man in the street now.

[I like neeps]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

[sockwithaticket]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

[Margin__Walker]

It's not equivalent. You're not leveraging inside info as those betting on the election date were.

That said, betting on anything involving yourself is clearly very dodgy ethnically. At best it shows very poor judgement. It also wouldn't surprise me if it's explicitly against some guidelines somewhere and almost certainly contrary to the T&C's of the bookies.

[C69]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

However it does show Starmer to be a man of his word, the guy was booted out pronto.

[I like neeps]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

Labour are going absolutely destroy the Tories because of the lived reality of daily life in the UK. A betting story isn't changing a significant enough amount of people's minds to make a difference.

[SaintK]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

However it does show Starmer to be a man of his word, the guy was booted out pronto.

And the £100k he donated to the Labour Party will be returned

[sockwithaticket]

I don't really see the issue here. He's not betting on information that nobody else is privy to. Not like he's going to tank his campaign over this.

I'm a huge fan of an emotional hedge however, so I'm taken to the logic.

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

However it does show Starmer to be a man of his word, the guy was booted out pronto.

True and it shows him as more decisive than Sunak who has dithered over doing similar with his party's betters.

[Hal Jordan]

Aaaand the Tories do it again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

A Conservative cabinet minister claimed that he won more than £2,000 betting on a July general election.

Shortly after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the election date, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack told the BBC he had made £2,100 after betting on June and July election dates. He claimed one of the bets was placed at odds of 25/1.

Last week, Mr Jack told the BBC the comments were “a joke… I was pulling your leg”.

Today, the Scottish Secretary said in a statement he “did not place any bets on the date of the general election during May”.

Just pure idiocy whether he did it or not.

[C69]

It doesn't need to be equivalent. The right wing rags will be all over this and all the shy Tories/ 'undecided' voters who when interviewed or focus grouped seem to be crying out for reasons not to vote Labour even though they know the Tories are crap.

However it does show Starmer to be a man of his word, the guy was booted out pronto.

And the £100k he donated to the Labour Party will be returned

Contrast that approach with Suak and the Hester millions.
Grubby bastards

[fishfoodie]

UK's shame has gone intergalactic !

Count Binface, a recurring satirical character in British elections, is challenging the prime minister for the Parliament seat representing Richmond and Northallerton.

Most polls suggest that Sunak will retain his seat, as every prime minister has before him. But his national approval rating is so low that an Ipsos survey released Saturday found that Sunak was only four percentage points ahead of Binface on favorability. Binface, in turn, was viewed more favorably than former prime minister Liz Truss.

https://archive.ph/SV2tq

The last set of MRB data might have said the Tories were going to get ~150 seats, but when you look at the margin of victory across those seats, they're really only likely to get ~60 of them, & then the rest are well within the margin of error, & the current trend line overall isn't the Tories friend, especially if voters vote tactically !!!!

https://stopthetories.vote/ If you want to find out where to place your vote if you want the best chance to displace your local c**t

[Biffer]

UK's shame has gone intergalactic !

Count Binface, a recurring satirical character in British elections, is challenging the prime minister for the Parliament seat representing Richmond and Northallerton.

Most polls suggest that Sunak will retain his seat, as every prime minister has before him. But his national approval rating is so low that an Ipsos survey released Saturday found that Sunak was only four percentage points ahead of Binface on favorability. Binface, in turn, was viewed more favorably than former prime minister Liz Truss.

https://archive.ph/SV2tq

The last set of MRB data might have said the Tories were going to get ~150 seats, but when you look at the margin of victory across those seats, they're really only likely to get ~60 of them, & then the rest are well within the margin of error, & the current trend line overall isn't the Tories friend, especially if voters vote tactically !!!!

https://stopthetories.vote/ If you want to find out where to place your vote if you want the best chance to displace your local c**t

On the day, a lot of reform voters will revert in order to keep Labour out. It’ll still be a big majority but I don’t think the Tory annihilation will be as bad as it might.

[shereblue]

It's not equivalent. You're not leveraging inside info as those betting on the election date were.

That said, betting on anything involving yourself is clearly very dodgy ethnically. At best it shows very poor judgement. It also wouldn't surprise me if it's explicitly against some guidelines somewhere and almost certainly contrary to the T&C's of the bookies.

I recall Lou Macari, managing Swindon Town, betting that a then red-hot Newcastle United would beat his side at St James Park in the FAC R3. His defence was that he was hedging. Had Swindon won, they'd have been in the next round of the FA Cup and in the money. When they lost, as hugely expected, they walked off with a well deserved "bonus" for their good cup run.

Obviously punished. And the 5-0 scoreline didn't look great when the bet came out.

[sockwithaticket]

UK's shame has gone intergalactic !

Count Binface, a recurring satirical character in British elections, is challenging the prime minister for the Parliament seat representing Richmond and Northallerton.

Most polls suggest that Sunak will retain his seat, as every prime minister has before him. But his national approval rating is so low that an Ipsos survey released Saturday found that Sunak was only four percentage points ahead of Binface on favorability. Binface, in turn, was viewed more favorably than former prime minister Liz Truss.

https://archive.ph/SV2tq

The last set of MRB data might have said the Tories were going to get ~150 seats, but when you look at the margin of victory across those seats, they're really only likely to get ~60 of them, & then the rest are well within the margin of error, & the current trend line overall isn't the Tories friend, especially if voters vote tactically !!!!

https://stopthetories.vote/ If you want to find out where to place your vote if you want the best chance to displace your local c**t

I will be head over heels if the Tory party is so reduced, but UK voters have let me down at every vote of my adult life thus far.

[Biffer]

UK's shame has gone intergalactic !

Count Binface, a recurring satirical character in British elections, is challenging the prime minister for the Parliament seat representing Richmond and Northallerton.

Most polls suggest that Sunak will retain his seat, as every prime minister has before him. But his national approval rating is so low that an Ipsos survey released Saturday found that Sunak was only four percentage points ahead of Binface on favorability. Binface, in turn, was viewed more favorably than former prime minister Liz Truss.

https://archive.ph/SV2tq

The last set of MRB data might have said the Tories were going to get ~150 seats, but when you look at the margin of victory across those seats, they're really only likely to get ~60 of them, & then the rest are well within the margin of error, & the current trend line overall isn't the Tories friend, especially if voters vote tactically !!!!

https://stopthetories.vote/ If you want to find out where to place your vote if you want the best chance to displace your local c**t

A tactical voting site that isn't blatantly pro unionist, at last!

I remember looking at previous ones of these where no matter what the previous results or current polling, it would resolutely never say to vote SNP, even when who they recommended was in a distant third place. This one seems more honest.

[sturginho]

UK voters have let me down at every vote of my adult life thus far.

word

[JM2K6]

It's not equivalent. You're not leveraging inside info as those betting on the election date were.

That said, betting on anything involving yourself is clearly very dodgy ethnically. At best it shows very poor judgement. It also wouldn't surprise me if it's explicitly against some guidelines somewhere and almost certainly contrary to the T&C's of the bookies.

Seems a bit of a stretch to blame the ethnics here

[Margin__Walker]

Ha. Yeah, that was a stretch in hindsight

[epwc]

Seems a bit of a stretch to blame the ethnics here

We're used to it

[SaintK]

Seems a bit of a stretch to blame the ethnics here

We're used to it

[salanya]

Reform have a very different strategy for the world: scrap net-zero and no renewables subsidies, cause they amount to 'financial negligence'

It's with a focus on Scotland, but that's an interesting take on things: just ignore global warming because there is money to be made (by a select few) - who cares about the future for your children and grandchildren?!

[Hal Jordan]

Reform have a very different strategy for the world: scrap net-zero and no renewables subsidies, cause they amount to 'financial negligence'

It's with a focus on Scotland, but that's an interesting take on things: just ignore global warming because there is money to be made (by a select few) - who cares about the future for your children and grandchildren?!

Just remember who has put money into Reform Ltd and what type of people/industries they are in.

Anti Net Zero is the new grift for Farage, he's milked hurrrr sovrinty for all it's worth, now it's grannies and poor people will freeze due to lefty renewable tree hugging.

[Paddington Bear]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

[I like neeps]

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb634f5-cf0 ... ec672c6d3b

Labour and the Conservatives are on course to register their lowest combined vote share in a century, according to pre-election polls.

The Financial Times’ tracker of 46 polls indicates that both of the UK’s two biggest parties have lost support since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement on May 22, with smaller parties such as Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all making advances

.

You don't hear much about being "politically homeless" these days.

[Slick]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

I don’t know, he’s had a few missteps for sure, but he’s also letting Sunak hang himself quite well- he’s coming across as a patronising, repetitive twat

[Slick]

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb634f5-cf0 ... ec672c6d3b

Labour and the Conservatives are on course to register their lowest combined vote share in a century, according to pre-election polls.

The Financial Times’ tracker of 46 polls indicates that both of the UK’s two biggest parties have lost support since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement on May 22, with smaller parties such as Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all making advances

.

You don't hear much about being "politically homeless" these days.

If the Tory’s weren’t in such a sorry state it could have been quite an interesting election. I don’t think I’d be voting for Labour if there wasn’t such a great chance to get rid of this U.K. government and give the SNP a bloody nose

[Paddington Bear]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

I don’t know, he’s had a few missteps for sure, but he’s also letting Sunak hang himself quite well- he’s coming across as a patronising, repetitive twat

Oh no arguments on Sunak, but he’s getting the vote share that you’d expect from a patronising, repetitive twat

[I like neeps]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

It's a bit of Mandela syndrome, because he's a v successful lawyer everyone presumes he must be some great orator but he has very little charisma in speeches.

[fishfoodie]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

He could drive a muck spreader thru St Pauls, & be filmed skeet shooting with puppies for targets, & it might mean his Party just won the 400 seats !

May was hamstrung by pandering to the loons in her membership & Parliamentary Party, & Starmer has stood up to both, & kept control that May never managed.

[Slick]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

I don’t know, he’s had a few missteps for sure, but he’s also letting Sunak hang himself quite well- he’s coming across as a patronising, repetitive twat

Oh no arguments on Sunak, but he’s getting the vote share that you’d expect from a patronising, repetitive twat

[Slick]

Turned over to watch Ronaldo lose his shit some time ago anyway

[C69]

Starmer has had a tough night.

A bizarre time - he’ll win the largest majority in modern history but every time he turns up to a debate he’s subject to sighs and laughter. A Labour Theresa May

I don’t know, he’s had a few missteps for sure, but he’s also letting Sunak hang himself quite well- he’s coming across as a patronising, repetitive twat

Oh no arguments on Sunak, but he’s getting the vote share that you’d expect from a patronising, repetitive twat

Just cause Sunak shouts and smiles all the time it doesn't mean he is winning.
He refuses to acknowledge the Tories past failings,it's madness.
That said this will not matter a jot, no one believes a thing he says now.

[sockwithaticket]

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb634f5-cf0 ... ec672c6d3b

Labour and the Conservatives are on course to register their lowest combined vote share in a century, according to pre-election polls.

The Financial Times’ tracker of 46 polls indicates that both of the UK’s two biggest parties have lost support since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement on May 22, with smaller parties such as Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all making advances

.

You don't hear much about being "politically homeless" these days.

There is the phenomenon that Alistair Campbell keeps raising and is worried about from a Labour perspective - the perception that Labour have it in the bag frees people up to vote less tactically than they might in a more tightly contested race. They assume others will do enough Labour voting to get rid of the Tories so they can go with someone else either because that's where their heart lies or because they want to send a message to Labour about the direction of the party.

I kind of hope that Labour get a stonking majority that's nevertheless obviously built on sand, it may worry them enough to do something about vote reform.

[fishfoodie]

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb634f5-cf0 ... ec672c6d3b

Labour and the Conservatives are on course to register their lowest combined vote share in a century, according to pre-election polls.

The Financial Times’ tracker of 46 polls indicates that both of the UK’s two biggest parties have lost support since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement on May 22, with smaller parties such as Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all making advances

.

You don't hear much about being "politically homeless" these days.

There is the phenomenon that Alistair Campbell keeps raising and is worried about from a Labour perspective - the perception that Labour have it in the bag frees people up to vote less tactically than they might in a more tightly contested race. They assume others will do enough Labour voting to get rid of the Tories so they can go with someone else either because that's where their heart lies or because they want to send a message to Labour about the direction of the party.

I kind of hope that Labour get a stonking majority that's nevertheless obviously built on sand, it may worry them enough to do something about vote reform.

At another time I'd share his concerns, but it feels like this time the voters are utterly fed up, & want to give the Tories a bloody good kicking, & that means either their own core voters sitting on their hands, or voting for ferret face, & then everyone else voting against them to cause maximum damage.

The latest MRP shows the trend getting ever worse for the Tories, & the LibDems actually becoming the Official Opposition.