The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[sockwithaticket]

The final Survation MRP poll shows one possible outcome of the LibDems taking over as the official opposition.

I've heard it mentioned a few times that it's possible that one of the reasons why Labours top level numbers have dropped off is because people are a lot more focused on voting tactically this time, & so moving their votes from Labour to other better placed candidates.

The MRP polls also show a LOT of seats that are on a knife edge, so there could be re-counts aplenty, & this is why the seat predictions for the Tories are all over the place.

I'm still anticipating there to be a lot of stuff coming out of the woodwork about the number of people disenfranchised by cock ups with postal votes and that being the basis for challenges in tight races.

[Raggs]

MRP also won't deal well with the rise of reform, or tactical voting to a large degree. The models rely a lot of previous results, and a strong new party along with lots of tactical voting, can easily cause it to struggle.

Clacton is a good example, Survations big poll from a week or so ago, had reform with an absolute high of something like 36% (expected something like 32%) in Clacton, but their dedicated Clacton poll, had reform on around 43%. That's a huge degree to be out for what's a top end estimate of their data, and then what would be effectively the mean of a focused poll.

[fishfoodie]

The final Survation MRP poll shows one possible outcome of the LibDems taking over as the official opposition.

I've heard it mentioned a few times that it's possible that one of the reasons why Labours top level numbers have dropped off is because people are a lot more focused on voting tactically this time, & so moving their votes from Labour to other better placed candidates.

The MRP polls also show a LOT of seats that are on a knife edge, so there could be re-counts aplenty, & this is why the seat predictions for the Tories are all over the place.

I'm still anticipating there to be a lot of stuff coming out of the woodwork about the number of people disenfranchised by cock ups with postal votes and that being the basis for challenges in tight races.

Yeah it sounds like the postal votes are a disaster, & almost half of voters haven't a clue about the id requirements

[Rhubarb & Custard]

MRP also won't deal well with the rise of reform, or tactical voting to a large degree. The models rely a lot of previous results, and a strong new party along with lots of tactical voting, can easily cause it to struggle.

Clacton is a good example, Survations big poll from a week or so ago, had reform with an absolute high of something like 36% (expected something like 32%) in Clacton, but their dedicated Clacton poll, had reform on around 43%. That's a huge degree to be out for what's a top end estimate of their data, and then what would be effectively the mean of a focused poll.

Most polls have a 3-5% margin of error, and really no one is paying the vast extra cost to get that down to a 2% margin of error. So even a good poll is problematic when it comes to tight races

And as ever I would prefer the media pay less attention to the polls and more attention to policy, but there seems little chance of that

[Hal Jordan]

Farage had already got the grift in if he loses, with people being urged to take pens because Labour will erase pencil marks and change your vote (#Penisbest folks!), postal votes, Channel 4, MSM, etc etc

And the cretins who will whine about FPTP if Reform pick up a reasonable percentage of votes vs a small number of seats are no doubt the same sort of people who voted against AV back in 2011 and they won't connect the dots.

[sockwithaticket]

The final Survation MRP poll shows one possible outcome of the LibDems taking over as the official opposition.

I've heard it mentioned a few times that it's possible that one of the reasons why Labours top level numbers have dropped off is because people are a lot more focused on voting tactically this time, & so moving their votes from Labour to other better placed candidates.

The MRP polls also show a LOT of seats that are on a knife edge, so there could be re-counts aplenty, & this is why the seat predictions for the Tories are all over the place.

I'm still anticipating there to be a lot of stuff coming out of the woodwork about the number of people disenfranchised by cock ups with postal votes and that being the basis for challenges in tight races.

Yeah it sounds like the postal votes are a disaster, & almost half of voters haven't a clue about the id requirements

I think I've mentioned here before that despite applying weeks prior, my parents' postal votes didn't arrive before they were due to go on their holiday, so they had to cancel and get proxys. Because they were doing it I got curious about the process, since I've never done it before, and applied for a postal too. Mine only arrived late last week, which was at least three and half weeks after having the application approved. It was also past the deadline to cancel a postal vote and apply for a proxy instead... which I was only made aware of due to the information contained with the postal vote. Thankfully, I have actually been around to go to the polling station and hand the postal vote in in person and act as proxy for my parents, but the experience has given me no faith in the postal vote process if I ever actually need to rely on it.

[Jock42]

Due to boundary changes, not sure the "guessers" have it right.
2019 was SNP at 40% with 7% over Lib Dems.
2024 prediction is Lib Dems getting 80% and SNP 17%. Hope it is true but doubt it.

SNP are predicted to win by anywhere between 2 and 18% here with a couple of polling companies saying Labour will win. Again not sure how accurate this is with the change.

[Sandstorm]

almost half of voters haven't a clue about the id requirements

There's a 30-something bloke in our office who came in today and heard some of us talking about the election:

Him: "Hmmmm....might go down and vote at lunchtime."
Me: "Cool. You got your photo ID?"
Him: "Why?"
Me: "Ummm..you need it to vote"
Him: "Ok. Where is my ID? (**scratches in his desk drawer** - seriously!!) "Ugh, can't find it. I won't bother."
Me: "You useless cnut"

[JM2K6]

Interestingly, Labour’s vote has dropped quite dramatically during this campaign. May largely be Lib Dem tactical stuff, but instructive as to how little enthusiasm there is for the party about to win a thumping majority

It's all relative surely. I'm not surprised that the one time the BBC et al feel honour bound to give the smaller parties some air time it makes a difference. Labour are still polling at incredible levels

They’re polling at levels roughly equivalent to where Corbyn got in 2017, and below the Tories in 2019

Hmmm that's a fair point, I'm making the mistake of conflating projected seats with vote percentage

[sockwithaticket]

On my postal vote hobby horse, taken from the Guardian feed:

The body that represents electoral officers and administrators has said electoral legislation is no longer adequate, amid widespread reports of disfranchisement of postal voters marring Thursday’s general election.

The Association of Electoral Administrators says pressure on running the services has mounted over recent years, with elections delivered “in spite of rather than because of the fragmented framework of laws”.

It has called for sweeping reforms including a new timeline for postal votes, registration of candidates and powers for officers to investigate errors and reports of disfranchisement when they occur.

Laura Lock, the deputy chief executive of the AEA, said: “Election teams are doing their very best to run this snap election, but with a short timetable and an election held when many are on holiday – plus print and delivery suppliers working at capacity – demand has severely tested the system.”

Lock said earlier deadlines for absent voting applications would be “better” and help councils get voting packs posted earlier, including those overseas.

Under existing laws, elections can be called a minimum of 25 days before polling day. The AEA says this is too tight and should be extended to 30 days as is the case for the London mayoral and Greater London authority elections.

It also wants powers to intervene when needed to avert disfranchisement, allowing those who did not receive a postal vote the opportunity to get a friend, family member or trusted person to cast their vote on election day.

The number of people seeking postal votes has rocketed in recent years, with 10 million this year and 8 million in 2019 compared with 1.7 million in 2010 and about 1 million in the decades stretching back to the 1970s.

Data from the House of Commons shows the “turnout” of postal voters is exceptionally high, at more than 83% in the past four elections, representing 20% of the total number of valid votes cast.

[Hal Jordan]

almost half of voters haven't a clue about the id requirements

There's a 30-something bloke in our office who came in today and heard some of us talking about the election:

Him: "Hmmmm....might go down and vote at lunchtime."
Me: "Cool. You got your photo ID?"
Him: "Why?"
Me: "Ummm..you need it to vote"
Him: "Ok. Where is my ID? (**scratches in his desk drawer** - seriously!!) "Ugh, can't find it. I won't bother."
Me: "You useless cnut"

I honestly have no idea why people with a driving licence don't have it on them whenever they are out and about . The number of clients who we have asked to bring ID to meetings, they forget it anyway and then say they don't have their license either is ridiculous.

[Lobby]

It's all relative surely. I'm not surprised that the one time the BBC et al feel honour bound to give the smaller parties some air time it makes a difference. Labour are still polling at incredible levels

They’re polling at levels roughly equivalent to where Corbyn got in 2017, and below the Tories in 2019

Hmmm that's a fair point, I'm making the mistake of conflating projected seats with vote percentage

Because its FPTP, overall vote percentage matters less than the differential percentage between the parties.

In 2019 the percentage voting Tory hardly differed at all to the Tory vote in 2017 (about 1% more). Johnson got a huge majority instead of May's hung Parliament not because he was a vote winner, but because the Labour vote for Corbyn collapsed from 40% to 30%.

[Paddington Bear]

It's all relative surely. I'm not surprised that the one time the BBC et al feel honour bound to give the smaller parties some air time it makes a difference. Labour are still polling at incredible levels

They’re polling at levels roughly equivalent to where Corbyn got in 2017, and below the Tories in 2019

Hmmm that's a fair point, I'm making the mistake of conflating projected seats with vote percentage

Starmer’s achievement in ‘detoxifying’ Labour has been to split the right (i.e. natural Tories are happy to vote Reform or Lib Dem in a way they didn’t in 2019) rather than energise the left. I suspect this favourable political landscape may not last once he’s in government, but it gives him a hell of a platform for 5 years.

[I like neeps]

They’re polling at levels roughly equivalent to where Corbyn got in 2017, and below the Tories in 2019

Hmmm that's a fair point, I'm making the mistake of conflating projected seats with vote percentage

Starmer’s achievement in ‘detoxifying’ Labour has been to split the right (i.e. natural Tories are happy to vote Reform or Lib Dem in a way they didn’t in 2019) rather than energise the left. I suspect this favourable political landscape may not last once he’s in government, but it gives him a hell of a platform for 5 years.

Next week Ofwat is going to announce whether they're allowing Thames Water bills to rise annually by c80%. I think his response to that (decades of Tory and New Labour failure) will show how his premiership will go. And also immediately wipe away any feel good factor if he gets it wrong.

Fwiw Jonathan Reynolds says that there's a secret third option between nationalisation and allowing the bills rise to keep Thames Water investable before they run out of money next year. Which their obviously isn't. So they'll be forced into detail on something finally.

[epwc]

Well, looks like my daughter can’t vote. She applied for a postal vote and it didn’t arrive, they won’t let her vote in person at the polling station

[tc27]

Lets not forget...Happy Indyref2 to our Scottish posters

[Hal Jordan]

The England team were questioned earlier if any of them were voting, but all admitted that they had no idea how to get a cross into the box.

(Stolen)

[Paddington Bear]

Buckle up cowboys

[fishfoodie]

Time Gentlemen please !

.... 5 minutes to go till we know just how fucked the Tories are

[lemonhead]

Not quite so badly as expected, you'd think.

Reform however can get fucked

[Oxbow]

Jesus, the exit poll reckons Reform will get 13 seats

[Paddington Bear]

Shouldn’t let the build up change how historic this is. SNP smashed as well

[epwc]

This country is so fucking stupid, might as well vote for the Blake down the boozer who knows how to fix everything

[Slick]

Much as I’d like to see it, I don’t think there is any way SNP are finishing on 10

[I like neeps]

Jesus, the exit poll reckons Reform will get 13 seats

A strong Reform performance makes Farage as next Tory leader I'd say quite likely.

Anyhow, absolutely excellent that the Tories have been destroyed. Their policies have been nothing but a disaster for the last 14 years.

[Raggs]

I'll be depressed if the Tories can still with 20% of constituencies.

[lemonhead]

This country is so fucking stupid, might as well vote for the Blake down the boozer who knows how to fix everything

Never underestimate anger, stupidity, victimhood and the lure of easy answers to complex questions.

[fishfoodie]

Much as I’d like to see it, I don’t think there is any way SNP are finishing on 10

The Times podcast earlier were making the point that more or less every seat in Scotland is a marginal, so I share your skepticism

I wouldn't be at all surprised if these numbers are +-20% off, as I'm not sure how robust the pollsters are in the face of a lot of tactical voting

[tc27]

That'll do pig.

Tories and SNP smashed. Reform getting so many of the only fly in the ointment.

[tc27]

IDS and Steve Baker look fucked.

[Slick]

That'll do pig.

Tories and SNP smashed. Reform getting so many of the only fly in the ointment.

My thoughts, plus good to see LD back to some respectability

[Paddington Bear]

Don’t love Steve Baker but this is pretty dignified stuff from him

[Slick]

Much as I’d like to see it, I don’t think there is any way SNP are finishing on 10

The Times podcast earlier were making the point that more or less every seat in Scotland is a marginal, so I share your skepticism

I wouldn't be at all surprised if these numbers are +-20% off, as I'm not sure how robust the pollsters are in the face of a lot of tactical voting

Agree, but even +20% smashes their ridiculous “mandate to open negotiations” thing

[Slick]

Don’t love Steve Baker but this is pretty dignified stuff from him

Had to switch over to watch Oor Nicola squirm

[tc27]

That'll do pig.

Tories and SNP smashed. Reform getting so many of the only fly in the ointment.

My thoughts, plus good to see LD back to some respectability

SNP not rolling in cash..the loss of 38 lots of short money is going to be veerrrry difficult.

[Paddington Bear]

Much as I’d like to see it, I don’t think there is any way SNP are finishing on 10

The Times podcast earlier were making the point that more or less every seat in Scotland is a marginal, so I share your skepticism

I wouldn't be at all surprised if these numbers are +-20% off, as I'm not sure how robust the pollsters are in the face of a lot of tactical voting

Agree, but even +20% smashes their ridiculous “mandate to open negotiations” thing

Sounds like too many Nats used the MI5 provided pencils this time

[sturginho]

Seems like nearly all the Mrps were badly wrong

[Slick]

The Times podcast earlier were making the point that more or less every seat in Scotland is a marginal, so I share your skepticism

I wouldn't be at all surprised if these numbers are +-20% off, as I'm not sure how robust the pollsters are in the face of a lot of tactical voting

Agree, but even +20% smashes their ridiculous “mandate to open negotiations” thing

Sounds like too many Nats used the MI5 provided pencils this time

[tc27]

Conservatives doing better in Scotland than England in the marginals

[Slick]

Off to bed and will get up for an hour or so at 3.30 I think