The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[tabascoboy]

[sturginho]

Tories hold my constituency, I fucking hate my neighbours

[_Os_]

Lib Dems on 71 seats and Tories on 119 with 9 still to announce.

Lib Dems best ever result. Including the Liberals, their best since 1923.

Reform and Frog Face have done well. Lib Dems have done really well. No doubt about it, if the Tories mess up the next 5 years then they're going under. Lib Dems are more than half their size now.

[epwc]

Tories first reform second here

[_Os_]

Tories first reform second here

Is your entire constituency a golf club?

[Oxbow]

Woke up to see Labour gain from Conservative, very happy with that.

[petej]

Pretty good to see the greens with 4 MPs which didn't seem to be predicted.

[I like neeps]

65% of the seats on 34% of the vote. Is good for the undemocratic flaws in FPTP to benefit Labour.

[Jim Lahey]

I think we can all agree that its fucking great to see the DUP shit the bed. Pack of karnts.

Shame that Jim Allister is the alternative for Ian Paisley jnr though.

[tc27]

Baker exit interview on ITV is worth a watch, sounds like a total loony. Keeps repeating "I am free at last thank god". 1911 National Insurance Act. Attacking George Osborne who was on the ITV panel even though he said nothing. Black site renditions during the war on terror. Money supply. Ed Balls bullying him.

Truss kept everyone waiting, was dragged onto the stage, no exit interview and was pursued by the media through the halls out of the building as she fled.

Maybe Truss running away was the better option.

Truss' reaction was when the iron clad self certainty of the incompetent meets the AP shell of reality.

Someone said about Truss: planet shaped ball of ambition balanced on a pin of talent.

[Sandstorm]

65% of the seats on 34% of the vote. Is good for the undemocratic flaws in FPTP to benefit Labour.

[Jim Lahey]

65% of the seats on 34% of the vote. Is good for the undemocratic flaws in FPTP to benefit Labour.

Yeah thats pretty bad.

The big pro of it is obviously the stability of governing parties having big majorities to enact reforms, but clearly a lot of disenfranchised voters.

[Margin__Walker]

Pretty much. Even as a Labour voter this is clearly going to be a problem as a multi party landscape becomes the norm.

[Glaston]

65% of the seats on 34% of the vote. Is good for the undemocratic flaws in FPTP to benefit Labour.

More people voted for Corbyn in both his elections than did for Starmer.

[tc27]

Pretty much. Even as a Labour voter this is clearly going to be a problem as a multi party landscape becomes the norm.

A Reform/Conservative coalition would be the likely outcome of a PR election...something to reflect on.

[SaintK]

Woke up to see Labour gain from Conservative, very happy with that.

Same here
It appears that most of Hertfordshire has gone that way!

[Raggs]

Pretty much. Even as a Labour voter this is clearly going to be a problem as a multi party landscape becomes the norm.

A Reform/Conservative coalition would be the likely outcome of a PR election...something to reflect on.

With reform claiming at the very least, foreign minister and home secretary position, in order to agree to be part of the coalition.

[Margin__Walker]

I'd say Lab/LD would be more likely in that spread

FWIW pure PR clearly has significant issues, but so does the current system whilst there are so many players.

[Paddington Bear]

Bizarre election. Tories and the SNP as governing parties both delivered an absolute punishing. Tories will attempt to claim it could have been worse, but it couldn’t really.

Hard to know what to say for the Tories. At least in 2019 the equation for Labour was simple - don’t run with a leader who has contempt for the values of much of the country and unpopular economic policies. The Tories are squeezed from both sides: Labour and Lib Dems have taken their seats, but it’s Reform who took their voters. No sympathy - they torched their record for economic competence at every chance they got, have fundamentally broken the link between hard work and a better life, and have lied to their voters, and lied to their own voters about their immigration plans four elections running. One has to wonder - what on earth did they expect to happen?

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Labour have done well to detoxify. But they have barely shifted their vote numbers, and this majority is a quirk of FPTP rather than anything else. I cannot help feeling that their contact with government will end in disaster, and soon.

Reform blew it with their scandals and Ukraine comments. They weren’t a million miles away from smashing through. They’ll be a force on the right for time to come. Migration isn’t disappearing as an issue.

This is the first election where you’d have to bury your head in the sand to not see voting along Asian ethnic lines as a major phenomenon, and it needs to be addressed. I cry no tears for Ashworth et al, who have been happy to have fairly conservative Islam as a running mate and vote bank for years. The same applies to the Tories round me, who lean heavily on the BJP radical Hindu networks. It’ll bite them in the arse some day too. The franchise needs to be restricted to citizens, as a starting point.

Overall, a necessary result. If Labour can’t sort the country out the next election will be funky. Gutted I didn’t stay up for Truss

[Paddington Bear]

Woke up to see Labour gain from Conservative, very happy with that.

Same here
It appears that most of Hertfordshire has gone that way!

Massively split Labour/Lib Dem vote cost them my Herts seat. Not sure why Labour campaigned as hard as they did here

[Raggs]

I'd say Lab/LD would be more likely in that spread

FWIW pure PR clearly has significant issues, but so does the current system whilst there are so many players.

Thing is, we can't really tell. FPTP skews the vote nearly as much as it skews the seats. Who knows what percentages parties would actually get if them winning wasn't dependant on fptp. However, in the percentages above, I think it would depend on the system we have in place. Potentially Lab would be asked first if they can create a majority (need 51%), they'd need Lab/Lib/Grn or similar, if they can't, then Con get a go as the 2nd largest party. Equally, it might be a case of if Con can demonstrate they can create a party first, they get it?

[Sandstorm]

Delighted Sunak retained his seat. Instead of running away, he has to sit on the opposition bench and endure a constant criticism of his time as Chancellor and PM.

[Margin__Walker]

I'd say Lab/LD would be more likely in that spread

FWIW pure PR clearly has significant issues, but so does the current system whilst there are so many players.

Thing is, we can't really tell. FPTP skews the vote nearly as much as it skews the seats. Who knows what percentages parties would actually get if them winning wasn't dependant on fptp. However, in the percentages above, I think it would depend on the system we have in place. Potentially Lab would be asked first if they can create a majority (need 51%), they'd need Lab/Lib/Grn or similar, if they can't, then Con get a go as the 2nd largest party. Equally, it might be a case of if Con can demonstrate they can create a party first, they get it?

Clearly it's all complete supposition and it would be tough for any coalition to form with that split without some sort of hybrid system

Just saying that I think a centrist/left coalition would be more likely to get over the line than one from the right as tc27 was suggesting imo

[I like neeps]

Bizarre election. Tories and the SNP as governing parties both delivered an absolute punishing. Tories will attempt to claim it could have been worse, but it couldn’t really.

Hard to know what to say for the Tories. At least in 2019 the equation for Labour was simple - don’t run with a leader who has contempt for the values of much of the country and unpopular economic policies. The Tories are squeezed from both sides: Labour and Lib Dems have taken their seats, but it’s Reform who took their voters. No sympathy - they torched their record for economic competence at every chance they got, have fundamentally broken the link between hard work and a better life, and have lied to their voters, and lied to their own voters about their immigration plans four elections running. One has to wonder - what on earth did they expect to happen?

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Labour have done well to detoxify. But they have barely shifted their vote numbers, and this majority is a quirk of FPTP rather than anything else. I cannot help feeling that their contact with government will end in disaster, and soon.

Reform blew it with their scandals and Ukraine comments. They weren’t a million miles away from smashing through. They’ll be a force on the right for time to come. Migration isn’t disappearing as an issue.

This is the first election where you’d have to bury your head in the sand to not see voting along Asian ethnic lines as a major phenomenon, and it needs to be addressed. I cry no tears for Ashworth et al, who have been happy to have fairly conservative Islam as a running mate and vote bank for years. The same applies to the Tories round me, who lean heavily on the BJP radical Hindu networks. It’ll bite them in the arse some day too. The franchise needs to be restricted to citizens, as a starting point.

Overall, a necessary result. If Labour can’t sort the country out the next election will be funky. Gutted I didn’t stay up for Truss

Truss was ousted at like 7am! You could've woken up for it.

The voting on Islamic lines is down Labours response to Gaza. If Corbyn was leader they wouldn't have lost those votes. (Granted Labour would lose the election). Is it good to have single issue voters on a foreign conflict we aren't that involved in? No. Is it any worse than the voters who abandoned Labour over Iraq? Probably not.

Also, franchise is already citizens of the UK or some commonwealth countries for general elections?

[lemonhead]

I'd say Lab/LD would be more likely in that spread

FWIW pure PR clearly has significant issues, but so does the current system whilst there are so many players.

A bit facile to draw the comparison anyway, it's not like for like. Reform's lifeblood is deprivation, dysfunction and alienation.

Under PR do you see any of the major parties given leeway to indulge the 49mins of Trussonomics, all that fever dream infighting, lurching from one shitfest to the next? They'd be scattered to the winds.

The system is currently such that the ruling party can be hit with a sizeable protest vote, plead contrition and move on with 17% of the vote. They can treat it like the game it is. Watch things change overnight if real stakes ever come into it.

[Paddington Bear]

Bizarre election. Tories and the SNP as governing parties both delivered an absolute punishing. Tories will attempt to claim it could have been worse, but it couldn’t really.

Hard to know what to say for the Tories. At least in 2019 the equation for Labour was simple - don’t run with a leader who has contempt for the values of much of the country and unpopular economic policies. The Tories are squeezed from both sides: Labour and Lib Dems have taken their seats, but it’s Reform who took their voters. No sympathy - they torched their record for economic competence at every chance they got, have fundamentally broken the link between hard work and a better life, and have lied to their voters, and lied to their own voters about their immigration plans four elections running. One has to wonder - what on earth did they expect to happen?

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Labour have done well to detoxify. But they have barely shifted their vote numbers, and this majority is a quirk of FPTP rather than anything else. I cannot help feeling that their contact with government will end in disaster, and soon.

Reform blew it with their scandals and Ukraine comments. They weren’t a million miles away from smashing through. They’ll be a force on the right for time to come. Migration isn’t disappearing as an issue.

This is the first election where you’d have to bury your head in the sand to not see voting along Asian ethnic lines as a major phenomenon, and it needs to be addressed. I cry no tears for Ashworth et al, who have been happy to have fairly conservative Islam as a running mate and vote bank for years. The same applies to the Tories round me, who lean heavily on the BJP radical Hindu networks. It’ll bite them in the arse some day too. The franchise needs to be restricted to citizens, as a starting point.

Overall, a necessary result. If Labour can’t sort the country out the next election will be funky. Gutted I didn’t stay up for Truss

Truss was ousted at like 7am! You could've woken up for it.

The voting on Islamic lines is down Labours response to Gaza. If Corbyn was leader they wouldn't have lost those votes. (Granted Labour would lose the election). Is it good to have single issue voters on a foreign conflict we aren't that involved in? No. Is it any worse than the voters who abandoned Labour over Iraq? Probably not.

Also, franchise is already citizens of the UK or some commonwealth countries for general elections?

I’d been up most of the night! ‘Some Commonwealth Countries’ includes India and Pakistan, which is an issue

[geordie_6]

Pretty good to see the greens with 4 MPs which didn't seem to be predicted.

Not that they're getting much attention compared to Reform who took a massive -checks notes- four seats...

[tabascoboy]

One slight crumb of comfort here is that Deform were pushed into 4th behind Lab and just behind Green, although well ahead of the Lib Dems, and only about 15%. Tory majority of over 11 000 is disappointing but in line with the local prediction.

[_Os_]

Baker exit interview on ITV is worth a watch, sounds like a total loony. Keeps repeating "I am free at last thank god". 1911 National Insurance Act. Attacking George Osborne who was on the ITV panel even though he said nothing. Black site renditions during the war on terror. Money supply. Ed Balls bullying him.

Truss kept everyone waiting, was dragged onto the stage, no exit interview and was pursued by the media through the halls out of the building as she fled.

Maybe Truss running away was the better option.

This how the Baker exit interview started, wading into Osborne and it seems telling him Brexit was the fault of the remain campaign. Baker is the "Brexit hard man"!

[Jock42]

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Hopefully it's reflected at the next Holyrood election where it makes a bigger point. They "held" this seat by 2%, 2 bloody percent.

[salanya]

Lots of positive outcomes, though how 25% of voters decided to vote conservative after 14 years of shit show, is concerning.

Hopefully Starmer will use his majority to be a bit more ambitious. And hopefully Reform will fall on its face over the next year and become just as insignificant as Ukip.

[Biffer]

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Hopefully it's reflected at the next Holyrood election where it makes a bigger point. They "held" this seat by 2%, 2 bloody percent.

The SNP problem is the same thing that infected Labour in Scotland for decades. There’s a group of people in the west of Scotland that used to treat the Labour Party as a career for life, would follow and implement whatever policies they were told to, without any real beliefs, so long as they kept the succession of jobs. A whole whack of those switched to the SNP when they became dominant. So the bulk of the SNP lost its passion for its main aim. It needs to gut these people out of the party and get its fire back.

Backing for independence hasn’t gone down, it’s still at the level of the Indy ref or higher.

[tabascoboy]

Welcome to the new East / West divide

[lemonhead]

Didn't realise the SNP had invaded England.

Which editor thought that colour palette was a good idea?

[tc27]

Bizarre election. Tories and the SNP as governing parties both delivered an absolute punishing. Tories will attempt to claim it could have been worse, but it couldn’t really.

Hard to know what to say for the Tories. At least in 2019 the equation for Labour was simple - don’t run with a leader who has contempt for the values of much of the country and unpopular economic policies. The Tories are squeezed from both sides: Labour and Lib Dems have taken their seats, but it’s Reform who took their voters. No sympathy - they torched their record for economic competence at every chance they got, have fundamentally broken the link between hard work and a better life, and have lied to their voters, and lied to their own voters about their immigration plans four elections running. One has to wonder - what on earth did they expect to happen?

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Labour have done well to detoxify. But they have barely shifted their vote numbers, and this majority is a quirk of FPTP rather than anything else. I cannot help feeling that their contact with government will end in disaster, and soon.

Reform blew it with their scandals and Ukraine comments. They weren’t a million miles away from smashing through. They’ll be a force on the right for time to come. Migration isn’t disappearing as an issue.

This is the first election where you’d have to bury your head in the sand to not see voting along Asian ethnic lines as a major phenomenon, and it needs to be addressed. I cry no tears for Ashworth et al, who have been happy to have fairly conservative Islam as a running mate and vote bank for years. The same applies to the Tories round me, who lean heavily on the BJP radical Hindu networks. It’ll bite them in the arse some day too. The franchise needs to be restricted to citizens, as a starting point.

Overall, a necessary result. If Labour can’t sort the country out the next election will be funky. Gutted I didn’t stay up for Truss

Think this is a great analysis. I'm a bit more confident about how Labour will do in government that this but it's a far more difficult now than it was in 1997. Lots of difficult problems in the inbox.

Labour loosing safe seats to single issue ethnic candidates is interesting and probaly not a good sign.

[tc27]

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Hopefully it's reflected at the next Holyrood election where it makes a bigger point. They "held" this seat by 2%, 2 bloody percent.

The SNP problem is the same thing that infected Labour in Scotland for decades. There’s a group of people in the west of Scotland that used to treat the Labour Party as a career for life, would follow and implement whatever policies they were told to, without any real beliefs, so long as they kept the succession of jobs. A whole whack of those switched to the SNP when they became dominant. So the bulk of the SNP lost its passion for its main aim. It needs to gut these people out of the party and get its fire back.

Backing for independence hasn’t gone down, it’s still at the level of the Indy ref or higher.

The SNP lead with independence in this election even if they officially rowed back from it being indyref2.. Even most of the 45%ish* who say they would vote for it are more concerned with other issues.

Swinney is not a fool so I am sure the Holyrood campaign in two years will not lead on independence..happy to be wrong on this though.

*Really should be pause for reflection that it's not shifted even with 10 years of older voters dying off, Brexit, Johnson and Truss.

[I like neeps]

Bizarre election. Tories and the SNP as governing parties both delivered an absolute punishing. Tories will attempt to claim it could have been worse, but it couldn’t really.

Hard to know what to say for the Tories. At least in 2019 the equation for Labour was simple - don’t run with a leader who has contempt for the values of much of the country and unpopular economic policies. The Tories are squeezed from both sides: Labour and Lib Dems have taken their seats, but it’s Reform who took their voters. No sympathy - they torched their record for economic competence at every chance they got, have fundamentally broken the link between hard work and a better life, and have lied to their voters, and lied to their own voters about their immigration plans four elections running. One has to wonder - what on earth did they expect to happen?

SNP feel done. They’ve had a near perfect decade of conditions to achieve their one aim, and it feels further away than ever. They rabbit holed into mad identity politics, gave up on competence and ran out of options for achieving independence. Given results, they can’t even credibly keep up their bollocks claim that Scotland is some progressive nirvana when compared to the fascist voting English.

Labour have done well to detoxify. But they have barely shifted their vote numbers, and this majority is a quirk of FPTP rather than anything else. I cannot help feeling that their contact with government will end in disaster, and soon.

Reform blew it with their scandals and Ukraine comments. They weren’t a million miles away from smashing through. They’ll be a force on the right for time to come. Migration isn’t disappearing as an issue.

This is the first election where you’d have to bury your head in the sand to not see voting along Asian ethnic lines as a major phenomenon, and it needs to be addressed. I cry no tears for Ashworth et al, who have been happy to have fairly conservative Islam as a running mate and vote bank for years. The same applies to the Tories round me, who lean heavily on the BJP radical Hindu networks. It’ll bite them in the arse some day too. The franchise needs to be restricted to citizens, as a starting point.

Overall, a necessary result. If Labour can’t sort the country out the next election will be funky. Gutted I didn’t stay up for Truss

Truss was ousted at like 7am! You could've woken up for it.

The voting on Islamic lines is down Labours response to Gaza. If Corbyn was leader they wouldn't have lost those votes. (Granted Labour would lose the election). Is it good to have single issue voters on a foreign conflict we aren't that involved in? No. Is it any worse than the voters who abandoned Labour over Iraq? Probably not.

Also, franchise is already citizens of the UK or some commonwealth countries for general elections?

I’d been up most of the night! ‘Some Commonwealth Countries’ includes India and Pakistan, which is an issue

Ah okay, I think it's a smaller issue as the Independents will all lose their seats in 2029 as I assume Gaza won't be a topic that people are so exercised by as they'll be some sort of resolution. It's not like they're winning on overtly Islamic policy which would be a much bigger problem.

[tabascoboy]

After 647 of 650 seats

LAB 33.8%
CON 23.7%
DEF 14.3 %
LIB 12.2%
GRN 6.8%

CON share DOWN 19.9%
LAB share UP 1.6%
DEF share UP 12.3%

Says it all really, huge move away from the Tories but only very small to Labour ( regional differences apply of course)

[Paddington Bear]

Truss was ousted at like 7am! You could've woken up for it.

The voting on Islamic lines is down Labours response to Gaza. If Corbyn was leader they wouldn't have lost those votes. (Granted Labour would lose the election). Is it good to have single issue voters on a foreign conflict we aren't that involved in? No. Is it any worse than the voters who abandoned Labour over Iraq? Probably not.

Also, franchise is already citizens of the UK or some commonwealth countries for general elections?

I’d been up most of the night! ‘Some Commonwealth Countries’ includes India and Pakistan, which is an issue

Ah okay, I think it's a smaller issue as the Independents will all lose their seats in 2029 as I assume Gaza won't be a topic that people are so exercised by as they'll be some sort of resolution. It's not like they're winning on overtly Islamic policy which would be a much bigger problem.

I get where you’re coming from. The result in Leicester East is the particularly scary one, the Tories won there because they put up a Hindu candidate. Harrow, down the road from me, is probably now the safest (only?) Tory seat in London, because Bob Blackman shamelessly courts the Indian far right.

Whilst I take the point on Gaza blowing over by the next election, I think this may be a challenging genie to bottle again

[Raggs]

They've got 5 years now, regardless of whether this is them winning or the tories losing or whatever, they have 5 years. Lib Dem have 5 years to solidify those seats as much as possible too.

Gaza won't have disappeared, but hopefully be less of a hot topic. It's disappointing that MPs can be elected on a single foreign issue, they're there to represent the constituency, what the hell is a single independent going to do about Gaza?