What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Things seem to be getting more and more serious in Georgia, after protests being cracked down on heavily by security forces.

[tabascoboy]

Why does the pretence continue from some quarters that meaningful and sincere negotiations are possible with this egomaniac?

NEW: Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation.

Kremlin-affiliated Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev told the Financial Times that Putin will likely reject any plan for peace negotiations that US President-elect Donald Trump puts forth unless the plan accounts for Russia's "security concerns."

Malofeev claimed that the Kremlin will only consider peace negotiations with the new administration if Trump reverses the US policy allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range weapons to strike into Russia; "removes" Ukrainian President Zelensky from office...and agrees to meet w/Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the future of European security, the conflict in the Middle East, and Russia's growing alliance w/China.

Putin may intend to use such a meeting to extract US policy concessions on these issues from Trump.

Malofeev's interview further indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks.

[yermum]

Things seem to be getting more and more serious in Georgia, after protests being cracked down on heavily by security forces.

https://x.com/georgian_legion/status/18 ... 2563969441

Some mixed messages out there

[Uncle fester]

Why does the pretence continue from some quarters that meaningful and sincere negotiations are possible with this egomaniac?

NEW: Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation.

Kremlin-affiliated Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev told the Financial Times that Putin will likely reject any plan for peace negotiations that US President-elect Donald Trump puts forth unless the plan accounts for Russia's "security concerns."

Malofeev claimed that the Kremlin will only consider peace negotiations with the new administration if Trump reverses the US policy allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range weapons to strike into Russia; "removes" Ukrainian President Zelensky from office...and agrees to meet w/Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the future of European security, the conflict in the Middle East, and Russia's growing alliance w/China.

Putin may intend to use such a meeting to extract US policy concessions on these issues from Trump.

Malofeev's interview further indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks.

He's been watching Succession clearly.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

All kinds of unconfirmed reports from Syria atm: Assad fled on a plane that disappeared from radar, Damascus fallen, Russian fleet leaving the Latokia port.

Hard to know what is true and if RU will abandon its Syrian mission but if so the implications could be that it leaves them free to concentrate more on their efforts in Ukraine to try and save face about their failure to defend their ally.

[yermum]

Pure hopium from me but we could hope for a rippling collapse in Russian morale.

[Uncle fester]

All kinds of unconfirmed reports from Syria atm: Assad fled on a plane that disappeared from radar, Damascus fallen, Russian fleet leaving the Latokia port.

Hard to know what is true and if RU will abandon its Syrian mission but if so the implications could be that it leaves them free to concentrate more on their efforts in Ukraine to try and save face about their failure to defend their ally.

Even if they do get to bring more resources to Ukraine, it's a massive blow to Russian prestige.

[Flockwitt]

Perun's latest is on Russian equipment burn. Specifically IFVs and artillery. tl;dr basically confirms what we knew, Russia getting into trouble through 2025 and in serious trouble in 2026.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzR8BacYS6U

Perun does conclude with a good point, Russia is fecked as a strategic player going forward. Their production won't even properly constitute their own army let alone be a threat globally.

Which means, if we make the next logical conclusion, that the West's tactics regards Ukraine supply have worked - for the West.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

The new Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, has announced a comprehensive transformation plan of his Force, focusing on four key priorities: enhanced training, transparent recruitment and robust support for servicemen, technological superiority, and a modernised, efficient command structure.

[Tilly Orifice]

The new Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, has announced a comprehensive transformation plan of his Force, focusing on four key priorities: enhanced training, transparent recruitment and robust support for servicemen, technological superiority, and a modernised, efficient command structure.

Has the new Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, announced a comprehensive transformation plan of his Force, focusing on four key priorities: enhanced training, transparent recruitment and robust support for servicemen, technological superiority, and a modernised, efficient command structure?

[Hellraiser]

New estimates of Russian equipment storage bases from OSINT researcher Jompy. On average, according to his table, Russian bases are about half empty. In particular, only 47% of the tanks that were there before the war, 53% of BMP/BMD, 47% of APCs (all modifications, also including MT-LB and BRDM), and 42% of artillery remain there. At the same time, most of the remaining equipment is in poor technical condition, and the remaining models are usually more outdated. For example, only 666 tanks out of 3,332 remaining at the bases are determined by Jompy as having a normal appearance for restoration. Of these tanks, very few are of the newer types that the Russians restored before (T-80, T-72B, T-90). Similar trends are noted among other types of weapons.

@yigal_levin

[tabascoboy]

Yep, that's really the point at issue

[Uncle fester]

Vote of no confidence in Olaf Scholz.
Germany heading for elections.
Here we go.

[tabascoboy]

The Russian general in charge of the country's nuclear protection forces has been killed in an explosion in Moscow

Lt Gen Igor Kirillov was leaving a residential block on Tuesday when a device hidden in a scooter went off

The bomb was remotely operated and contained around 300g of explosives, Russian state media reports

On Monday, Kirillov was charged in Ukraine for the use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine

Kirillov had already been sanctioned by the UK, and others, for his role in Russia's use of chemical weapons

The UK said Kirillov was also "a significant mouthpiece for Kremlin disinformation, spreading lies to mask Russia's shameful and dangerous behaviour"

[Uncle fester]

The Russian general in charge of the country's nuclear protection forces has been killed in an explosion in Moscow

Lt Gen Igor Kirillov was leaving a residential block on Tuesday when a device hidden in a scooter went off

The bomb was remotely operated and contained around 300g of explosives, Russian state media reports

On Monday, Kirillov was charged in Ukraine for the use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine

Kirillov had already been sanctioned by the UK, and others, for his role in Russia's use of chemical weapons

The UK said Kirillov was also "a significant mouthpiece for Kremlin disinformation, spreading lies to mask Russia's shameful and dangerous behaviour"

Ukraine confirmed it was them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4gx6p347dgt

If they are able to wander around Moscow assassinating notables, I wonder what else they could be doing.

[Hellraiser]

Germany has placed an order with Rheinmetall for another 20 Marder 1A3s for Ukraine.

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/ne ... to-ukraine

[laurent]

A funny one at the cost of Denmark.

you may recall they gave their brand new CAESAR 8x8 to Ukraine early on in the war.

They then bought some Israeli knockoffs with a very dodgy process.

They now settled with KNDS and it is alleged that out of the French offer to build 76 this year they paid for most to avoid a trial...

https://meta-defense.fr/2024/12/17/knds ... rd-proces/

[Hellraiser]

Another Ukrainian strike on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery. Unclear whether it was drones or missiles, but this time they hit the distillation unit which means the facility is done for the foreseeable future.

[Hellraiser]

The number of tanks in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is decreasing - OSINT researcher Richard Vereker finds more and more evidence of this by analyzing the loss ratio.

In particular, this is indicated by the fact that the share of losses of old T-62 tanks has again increased to record values ​​- 24.8%, while the share of T-80 (which were restored most actively) has sharply decreased. In addition, the ratio of losses of IFVs to tanks continues to grow, already exceeding 4 to 1. In addition, Vereker decided to group the losses of Russian tanks into four categories and analyze them.

1. The Russian tanks still in production are the T-90M and T-90S. Vereker believes that based on their loss figures, their total annual production should have dropped to around 60, although it was likely higher in 2022.

2. Modern tanks that are being restored. Vereker included here those tanks that are no longer produced by the Russians, but are only restored from warehouses, and at the same time are quite new and have good performance characteristics. He included here the T-72B, all types of T-80, and also the T-90A. The number of losses of these tanks is gradually decreasing. Moreover, according to the calculations of other researchers, very few of these tanks remain in the storage bases. These tanks were the basis for the tank units of the Russian Armed Forces throughout the full-scale war, but the share of their losses is gradually decreasing. This is especially true for the T-80.

3. Old complex tanks. Vereker includes the T-72A, T-72 "Ural" and T-64 here. These tanks also have good performance characteristics, but they are older, and the Russians have big problems with their restoration, so they are practically not sent to the troops.

4. Old, simple. This includes the T-62 and T-54/55. Vereker notes that the Russians have only a small number of T-54/55s, and they are now mostly used in training centers. At the same time, although the Russians still have significant stocks of T-62s, most of the remaining tanks are in poor technical condition, and it will be increasingly difficult and time-consuming to restore them.

Based on this, Vereker believes that the Russians are already having major problems reactivating tanks, as all the main modern types are almost exhausted. He suggests that in the future, the Russians will increasingly rely on the T-62 and T-54/55, and that the reactivation of the T-64 and T-72A/Ural is unlikely to be large-scale.

@yigal_levin

[Uncle fester]

Barbarity reigns
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7ve11lr247o

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

From the ISW:

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted their first attack solely using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and first-person view (FPV) drones, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing efforts to leverage technological innovation into ground operations. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on December 20 that Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack exclusively using robotic systems instead of infantry on an unspecified date near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and successfully destroyed unspecified Russian positions during the attack.[5] The spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack with dozens of UGVs equipped with machine guns and also used the UGVs to lay and clear mines in unspecified positions in the area. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly highlighted Ukraine's efforts to utilize technological innovations and asymmetric strike capabilities to offset Ukraine's manpower limitations in contrast with Russia's willingness to accept unsustainable casualty rates for marginal territorial gains.[6]

Ukraine also continues to innovate aerial drone production. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian officials completed tests of a drone attached to fiber optic cables that will be more resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference.[7] Russian forces have recently fielded such drones in Kursk Oblast and Ukraine.[8] A Ukrainian drone company reported that it recently assembled a prototype of the first FPV drone made exclusively from components manufactured in Ukraine.[9]

I've seen one commentator say that this is potentially a Battle of Flers-Courcelette moment.

[tabascoboy]

Russia appear to be intensifying offensives again, presumably to occupy as much territory ASAP, no matter the cost. Looking for a bridgehead on the right side of the Dniepr likely to use as leverage for a potential ceasefire along the front lines. However, 4 000 troops is hardly a large commitment...

[Hellraiser]

That's insanely stupid.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Germany has transferred a large package of weapons to Ukraine

It included:

15 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 2 Gepard tanks;
30 MRAP armored vehicles with mine protection;
self-propelled howitzer PzH 2000;
12 armored vehicles with kinetic defense systems and 7 Caracal assault jeeps;
IRIS-T SLM and IRIS-T SLS anti-aircraft missile systems with missiles;
2 Patriots;
2 TRML-4D radars;
ammunition for Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks;
30 Vector drones, 24 RQ-35 Heidrun drones, 14 Hornet XR drones;
5 AMPS helicopter self-protection systems;
45 diving scooters;
12 Zetros trucks and 8 Zetros tankers;
120 GMW grenade launchers, 200 MG4 machine guns, 420 MK 556 rifles, 80 HLR 338 sniper rifles, 100 CR 308 rifles;
52,000 155 mm shells, AIM-9L/I-1 Sidewinde guided missiles.

In addition, the package was supplemented with: generators, tents, turnstiles, small arms ammunition, 120 mm mortar ammunition, mines and demining equipment.

[Uncle fester]

That's insanely stupid.

Maybe but the white house might hit the pause button at the right time to bail them out.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Jompy believes that Omsktransmash, the key T-80 tank repair plant, will have to be restructured for other work in the near future. The reason is that the Russians have almost completely exhausted all reserves of this type of tank.

The most recent satellite images of the plant are three months old; what was waiting in line for repairs should have already been repaired, and there is simply nowhere to bring in additional tanks for de-preservation. Jompy notes that it will be interesting to see what the plant is repurposed for in the future.

The T-80 reserves largely saved the Russian Armed Forces during the war - these tanks were not very old, and most of them were able to be removed from storage bases and restored.

However, with the depletion of their reserves, the Russians are faced with serious problems, since the tanks remaining at the bases are in worse technical condition and will take longer and be more expensive to restore, and many will never be restored at all.

@yigal_levin

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

Brutalizing civilians is about the height of Russian capabilities.

[Niegs]

An Australian has been captured by the Russians

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasf ... n_teacher/

[tabascoboy]

Russians at it again? Finland showing a bit of backbone

Finland has detained the tanker "Eagle S" carrying Russian oil, suspected of damaging the Estlink 2 underwater cable, according to the Financial Times. The tanker was en route to Egypt but significantly slowed down while passing over the cable area. In addition to the Estlink 2 power cable, three other communication cables were also damaged. One of the tanker's anchors was found to be torn off, which could have caused the damage to the cables. Currently, the vessel is in Finnish waters under police control.

[Slick]

It’s hard to appreciate how much the Finns hate Russia

[Hellraiser]

It’s hard to appreciate how much the Finns hate Russia

A country of 5.5m being able to mobilise 350,000 men in three days speaks for itself.

[tabascoboy]

Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’

Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an underwater electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting and receiving devices that were used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship, which has since been detained by Finnish police.

RUSSIA-LINKED dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a “spy ship” for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt.

The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.

As well as Eagle S, another related tanker from the same ownership cluster, UK-sanctioned Swiftsea Rider (IMO: 9318539), also had similar equipment installed, Lloyd’s List was told.

Cook Islands-flagged Eagle S and Honduras-flagged Swiftsea Rider are two of 26 elderly Russia-linked tankers with opaque ownership structures connected to three related shipmanagers, including two sanctioned by the UK government 12 months ago for “propping up Putin’s war machine”.

The sanctions-circumventing tankers were bought between 2022 and 2023 and placed under bareboat charter arrangements with Eiger Shipping, the shipping arm of Russia oil trader Litasco.

Eagle S was boarded by Finnish forces investigating sabotage of the Estlink 2 undersea cable that disrupted the supply of electricity to Estonia from Finland.

The tanker slowed and dragged its anchor around the cable around midday, December 25, Finland’s police said. Another three cables were also damaged.


https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1151955/Ru ... -equipment