Starmergeddon: They Came And Ate Us

[Yeeb]

"Special relationship" update in The Times (not going to link or post the whole article, it's paywalled).

Looks like the US is going to start "transacting" (aka extorting) the UK, using the commitment the UK has made to the US defence industry, which it turns out is actually a potential national security threat to the UK. Quite something that under the table American officials are warning UK counterparts of what's coming and they're better off distancing themselves from the US. Maybe a $500bn US fund the UK has pay into because the US claims it got a free ride is incoming.

As the Ministry of Defence works out how best to spend its extra billions, US government officials are warning behind the scenes that the UK should move away from buying American equipment.
Munitions, new technology, such as uncrewed systems, and fostering a closer relationship between defence and society are among the top priorities for ministers, The Times understands.
The UK government was told privately by US officials it should “recalibrate” its reliance on US equipment. This was after suggestions were allegedly raised within the Trump administration that the UK was getting equipment too cheaply, a British defence figure privy to the discussion said.
Recounting the conversation in recent weeks, the source said: “They said we shouldn’t be buying US equipment and there was a feeling in the US administration that they should be sending the UK a bill because they have got defence equipment cheaply.”
The source added: “Some think the UK got an unfairly cheap deal with Trident.”
American officials said that the UK and others should not assume they can ride out a Trump presidency because JD Vance, the vice-president, could succeed him.
“We have been trying to tell people to recalibrate. The old certainties are gone,” the officials told the defence expert, who is not a member of the UK government.
They said that a US administration could put restrictions on kit from the US and that if countries are “deemed not to be doing what you are told you will suddenly find out missiles won’t fire and planes won’t fly. You have got to be careful.”
The source said: “This is the transactional side of Trump.”

Too cheaply ?
Things like tsr2 getting canned for f111, the harriers, f35 and the tanker - uk got bummed on all of those. The ‘you have got to be careful’ thing would appear to directly push everyone to joint EU ventures , very strange comments. AUKUS may be torn up surely now ?

Amazing how many bridges Trump is burning so quickly.

[sockwithaticket]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

[tabascoboy]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

But, but, but...we have the likes of Trump Fanboy Farage and In Lettuce we Truss to speak up for us to influence the US Gov't for a great FTA!

[inactionman]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

There's no way he'll do anything to hurt his golf courses.

[Sandstorm]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

But India and China.....

[dpedin]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

There's no way he'll do anything to hurt his golf courses.

On that very topic ... I'm waiting to see how he will try and blackmail the R&A so that they put Turnberry back onto the Open rota. He is absolutely desperate for it to be included - it will do his business good, he is a golf nut and wants 'his' course on the rota but also it will recognize his Scottish (I hate to say that!) roots. I am convinced he will try and put something into the current PGA and LIV discussions that will be an attempt to force the R&A hand. It will be interesting as the blazers at the R&A will see him as a temporary, very vulgar, nouveau riche and unwelcome irritation in their 271 year long history and one who should just be ignored. As a golfer in Scotland who has played all the Open venues, including pre Trump Turnberry, my money is on the R&A!

[_Os_]

"Special relationship" update in The Times (not going to link or post the whole article, it's paywalled).

Looks like the US is going to start "transacting" (aka extorting) the UK, using the commitment the UK has made to the US defence industry, which it turns out is actually a potential national security threat to the UK. Quite something that under the table American officials are warning UK counterparts of what's coming and they're better off distancing themselves from the US. Maybe a $500bn US fund the UK has pay into because the US claims it got a free ride is incoming.

As the Ministry of Defence works out how best to spend its extra billions, US government officials are warning behind the scenes that the UK should move away from buying American equipment.
Munitions, new technology, such as uncrewed systems, and fostering a closer relationship between defence and society are among the top priorities for ministers, The Times understands.
The UK government was told privately by US officials it should “recalibrate” its reliance on US equipment. This was after suggestions were allegedly raised within the Trump administration that the UK was getting equipment too cheaply, a British defence figure privy to the discussion said.
Recounting the conversation in recent weeks, the source said: “They said we shouldn’t be buying US equipment and there was a feeling in the US administration that they should be sending the UK a bill because they have got defence equipment cheaply.”
The source added: “Some think the UK got an unfairly cheap deal with Trident.”
American officials said that the UK and others should not assume they can ride out a Trump presidency because JD Vance, the vice-president, could succeed him.
“We have been trying to tell people to recalibrate. The old certainties are gone,” the officials told the defence expert, who is not a member of the UK government.
They said that a US administration could put restrictions on kit from the US and that if countries are “deemed not to be doing what you are told you will suddenly find out missiles won’t fire and planes won’t fly. You have got to be careful.”
The source said: “This is the transactional side of Trump.”

Too cheaply ?
Things like tsr2 getting canned for f111, the harriers, f35 and the tanker - uk got bummed on all of those. The ‘you have got to be careful’ thing would appear to directly push everyone to joint EU ventures , very strange comments. AUKUS may be torn up surely now ?

Amazing how many bridges Trump is burning so quickly.

If they make any moves against the UK, given what the UK has done for the US over the past quarter of a century (all the wars and the cost of that), it'll be a betrayal of epic proportions. It's shocking this is even possible.

Reality doesn't bother them much. Very hard to tell how widespread these views are in the US, but it's more than Trump. There's two things happening:

1. Trump is basically copying Russia and China. Trump sees Putin invading neighbours and Xi threatening Taiwan, he wants some of that action (Canada/Panama/Greenland). The US is adopting the sphere of influence view of the world, it is also making clear it doesn't care about Europe. To remain relevant to the US, the UK's fleet was built out and made interoperable with the US so it could make a contribution in the Pacific, it cannot be useful in the Pacific without the US. This interoperability could potentially be used to extort the UK. The UK is also facing a Russian security threat in Europe. The UK isn't capable of at the same time opposing Russia in Europe, China in the Pacific, and the US in defence contracts.

2. How the US version of empire used to work was the US imposing a set of global rules and global economic integration (which is obviously incompatible with spheres of influence). The US is switching to an older form of empire, in the US sphere it will extract wealth from the weak (Canada and Mexico were forced into bad deals in Trump's first presidency, he now says those deals were unfair on the US and new concessions must be made to the US). The US plan for Europe is to impose an outcome in Ukraine without any European input, it wants an agreement between the US and Russia because it perceives Russia as strong and likely wants to pick Russia as the winner to end the conflict. This is the first time in history Europe is being discussed without Europe being at the table, it's more like how Africa was treated under European colonialism than anything from past European diplomacy. The logic of this position is the US extracting from its allies until there's nothing to take. Tariffing allies is part of that, so are one sided trade deals and straight up extortion.

[Yeeb]

"Special relationship" update in The Times (not going to link or post the whole article, it's paywalled).

Looks like the US is going to start "transacting" (aka extorting) the UK, using the commitment the UK has made to the US defence industry, which it turns out is actually a potential national security threat to the UK. Quite something that under the table American officials are warning UK counterparts of what's coming and they're better off distancing themselves from the US. Maybe a $500bn US fund the UK has pay into because the US claims it got a free ride is incoming.

Too cheaply ?
Things like tsr2 getting canned for f111, the harriers, f35 and the tanker - uk got bummed on all of those. The ‘you have got to be careful’ thing would appear to directly push everyone to joint EU ventures , very strange comments. AUKUS may be torn up surely now ?

Amazing how many bridges Trump is burning so quickly.

If they make any moves against the UK, given what the UK has done for the US over the past quarter of a century (all the wars and the cost of that), it'll be a betrayal of epic proportions. It's shocking this is even possible.

Reality doesn't bother them much. Very hard to tell how widespread these views are in the US, but it's more than Trump. There's two things happening:

1. Trump is basically copying Russia and China. Trump sees Putin invading neighbours and Xi threatening Taiwan, he wants some of that action (Canada/Panama/Greenland). The US is adopting the sphere of influence view of the world, it is also making clear it doesn't care about Europe. To remain relevant to the US, the UK's fleet was built out and made interoperable with the US so it could make a contribution in the Pacific, it cannot be useful in the Pacific without the US. This interoperability could potentially be used to extort the UK. The UK is also facing a Russian security threat in Europe. The UK isn't capable of at the same time opposing Russia in Europe, China in the Pacific, and the US in defence contracts.

2. How the US version of empire used to work was the US imposing a set of global rules and global economic integration (which is obviously incompatible with spheres of influence). The US is switching to an older form of empire, in the US sphere it will extract wealth from the weak (Canada and Mexico were forced into bad deals in Trump's first presidency, he now says those deals were unfair on the US and new concessions must be made to the US). The US plan for Europe is to impose an outcome in Ukraine without any European input, it wants an agreement between the US and Russia because it perceives Russia as strong and likely wants to pick Russia as the winner to end the conflict. This is the first time in history Europe is being discussed without Europe being at the table, it's more like how Africa was treated under European colonialism than anything from past European diplomacy. The logic of this position is the US extracting from its allies until there's nothing to take. Tariffing allies is part of that, so are one sided trade deals and straight up extortion.

Can’t disagree with anything you have eloquently put there, chief.

I wasn’t trumps biggest hate on here, but even I’m flummoxed by trumps apparent reinventing history and lobbing mates and allies under a bus, I could totally see what he meant about the ‘paying for stuff / free rider’ thing, but his continued alienation of pretty much everyone and every country that didn’t already hate him, is baffling.

At least it’s knocked the UK off the podium of ‘countries who everyone else doesn’t like’
(Obvs not in Ireland..) of Russia, N Korea and now USA.

[Biffer]

What a great time to be on the outside of the massive trading block on our doorstep with no leverage or backup against a predatory, far wealthier trade partner.

There's no way he'll do anything to hurt his golf courses.

On that very topic ... I'm waiting to see how he will try and blackmail the R&A so that they put Turnberry back onto the Open rota. He is absolutely desperate for it to be included - it will do his business good, he is a golf nut and wants 'his' course on the rota but also it will recognize his Scottish (I hate to say that!) roots. I am convinced he will try and put something into the current PGA and LIV discussions that will be an attempt to force the R&A hand. It will be interesting as the blazers at the R&A will see him as a temporary, very vulgar, nouveau riche and unwelcome irritation in their 271 year long history and one who should just be ignored. As a golfer in Scotland who has played all the Open venues, including pre Trump Turnberry, my money is on the R&A!

They will very soon announce where the venues will be for 2028 & 2029 I think, and they're likely to be Muirfield and Lytham (2026 is Birkdale, 2027 St Andrews). That'll be set in stone, beyond his presidential term. The R&A haven't said Turnberry is off the rota, they just haven't chosen it. So there's nothing to overturn, no official ban etc. The R&A will move very slowly and just let it wash over them. The Open venue isn't in the Grant of the PGA or European Tour so there is SFA he can do.

[_Os_]

Can’t disagree with anything you have eloquently put there, chief.

I wasn’t trumps biggest hate on here, but even I’m flummoxed by trumps apparent reinventing history and lobbing mates and allies under a bus, I could totally see what he meant about the ‘paying for stuff / free rider’ thing, but his continued alienation of pretty much everyone and every country that didn’t already hate him, is baffling.

At least it’s knocked the UK off the podium of ‘countries who everyone else doesn’t like’
(Obvs not in Ireland..) of Russia, N Korea and now USA.

Thanks, Yeeb.

Can't say I ever found the "special relationship" particularly convincing. But what is undeniable is the UK has gone out of its way to be the best ally possible, the jokes about being a poodle and all that. If the US tries to take advantage simply because they're stronger and can, it will reflect very poorly on the US.

Starmer is in an impossible position. Talk back risk annoying Trump, and take the blame for any future Trump action against the UK. Be too friendly and he looks weak as Trump spouts nonsense.

[Yeeb]

Can’t disagree with anything you have eloquently put there, chief.

I wasn’t trumps biggest hate on here, but even I’m flummoxed by trumps apparent reinventing history and lobbing mates and allies under a bus, I could totally see what he meant about the ‘paying for stuff / free rider’ thing, but his continued alienation of pretty much everyone and every country that didn’t already hate him, is baffling.

At least it’s knocked the UK off the podium of ‘countries who everyone else doesn’t like’
(Obvs not in Ireland..) of Russia, N Korea and now USA.

Thanks, Yeeb.

Can't say I ever found the "special relationship" particularly convincing. But what is undeniable is the UK has gone out of its way to be the best ally possible, the jokes about being a poodle and all that. If the US tries to take advantage simply because they're stronger and can, it will reflect very poorly on the US.

Starmer is in an impossible position. Talk back risk annoying Trump, and take the blame for any future Trump action against the UK. Be too friendly and he looks weak as Trump spouts nonsense.

For me, special relationship had been strongish for defence, we have been their biggest aircraft carrier since ww2, through to the recent AUKUS. I could even forgive them for arm twisting to buy their crap instead of our domestic excellence (tsr2 which was pretty much the last world beating bit of kit we solely designed). But somehow claiming we got stuff cheap when we’ve been on of the few that paid their nato & military death dues, is just sad.

Agree also with you re Starmer , best action for him would be just to concentrate on domestic stuff , potholes & poolshitters. Brexit up until now has kept UK of of trumps tariff firing line, but also being alone from the pack brings other weaknesses.

Am genuinely thinking that whatever political beef UK and Eu have with one another , the Trump Putin craziness with nukes on our doorstep, might lead to a formation of a euro nato as Trump seems hellbent on taking America out. Some form of security pact that is Eu membership in all but name could now be on the realms of possibility , especially as the uk still does have in theory nukes and decent enough defence capability. All this utter shite from madmen really does put bendy bananas and side of buses into perspective.

[Hal Jordan]

Can’t disagree with anything you have eloquently put there, chief.

I wasn’t trumps biggest hate on here, but even I’m flummoxed by trumps apparent reinventing history and lobbing mates and allies under a bus

I take it you're not familiar with, oh, everything Trump has ever said or done in his entire fucking life?

[Yeeb]

Can’t disagree with anything you have eloquently put there, chief.

I wasn’t trumps biggest hate on here, but even I’m flummoxed by trumps apparent reinventing history and lobbing mates and allies under a bus

I take it you're not familiar with, oh, everything Trump has ever said or done in his entire fucking life?

Can’t say I had ever heard of him turning against former strategic allies, nope - all I knew about his pre prez / you’re fired days was he did WWE, he liked shagging and raping models , and was rather adept at going bust and then back again on his real estate empire.

[Slick]

Sounds like Starmer has played a blinder to be fair

[I like neeps]

Sounds like Starmer has played a blinder to be fair

Trump is a bit more complementary fave to face and could easily say on Truth Social tomorrow something else.

However, Starmer is clearly a very strong operator with other European leaders.

[Uncle fester]

Sounds like Starmer has played a blinder to be fair

Trump is a bit more complementary fave to face and could easily say on Truth Social tomorrow something else.

However, Starmer is clearly a very strong operator with other European leaders.

Been dealt a shitty hand and played it very well on this instance.

[Tichtheid]

Sounds like Starmer has played a blinder to be fair

Trump is a bit more complementary fave to face and could easily say on Truth Social tomorrow something else.

However, Starmer is clearly a very strong operator with other European leaders.

Been dealt a shitty hand and played it very well on this instance.

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

[_Os_]

No media/commentators I've seen have picked it up, but It does look like Trump is threatening the UK. Trump says at one point that Starmer argued for no new tariffs very forcefully and that there doesn't have to be with a trade deal.

In a negotiation between a stronger and weaker actor, the main leverage the weaker actor has is walking away and returning to the status quo. Trump is saying the choice is trade deal or new tariffs, and that soon no return to the current status quo will be possible. If the threat is credible and the UK doesn't want tariffs, this tilts trade talks in favour of the US. Uniquely, inside the UK a loud part of the media are ideologically committed to a US trade deal at any price, they'll pressure any UK government to sign too. Once the UK does sign (is Starmer really going to refuse?), everyone will say it's brilliant because what else can they say. We've seen with Mexico and Canada what can happen once the UK is more economically integrated with the US, the deal is changed to the further benefit of the US.

[Sandstorm]

No media/commentators I've seen have picked it up, but It does look like Trump is threatening the UK. Trump says at one point that Starmer argued for no tariffs very forcefully and that there doesn't have to be with a trade deal.

In a negotiation between a stronger and weaker actor, the main leverage the weaker actor has is walking away and returning to the status quo. Trump is saying the choice is trade deal or tariffs, and that soon no return to the current status quo will be possible. If the threat is credible and the UK doesn't want tariffs, this tilts trade talks in favour of the US. Uniquely, inside the UK a loud part of the media are ideologically committed to a US trade deal at any price, they'll pressure any UK government to sign too. Once the UK does sign (is Starmer really going to refuse?), everyone will say it's brilliant because what else can they say. We've seen with Mexico and Canada what can happen once the UK is more economically integrated with the US, the deal is changed to the further benefit of the US.

Leave told us that any new trade deal was a good deal. So I can't wait for my Texan Unicorn to be delivered soon.

[Yeeb]

Sounds like Starmer has played a blinder to be fair

It does appear that way. Shame that all the recent evidence is that Trump can say and do one thing on Monday and the opposite on Tuesday, so there is more than a little ‘Neville chamberlain and his bit of paper’ about anything with Trump.

I actually quite liked how Trump wormed out of the ‘you called zelensky a dictator’ thing, as near an admission that he made a mistake as you will ever get from Trump.

The optimist in me thinks that the result of yesterday means:
Trump realises Uk is actually quite far down his list of targets
Needs Uk in a way as leveredge agaisnt EU
Has a soft spot for Uk, the king, Starmer even (that whatever they paying him seemed an admission of admiration) and his golf courses
Has realised Uk us trade is relatively balanced so tariffs would achieve little anyways

The negative in me thinks this is all just part of trump being Trump and you can’t rely on a single thing he says or signs

[Slick]

Trump is a bit more complementary fave to face and could easily say on Truth Social tomorrow something else.

However, Starmer is clearly a very strong operator with other European leaders.

Been dealt a shitty hand and played it very well on this instance.

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

That's all true, but I don't think Starmer and his team could have played it much better. At the end of the day, however uncomfortable it makes us feel, Starmer has to have the UK as the number one priority and the secret invitation from the King was genius.

[dpedin]

There's no way he'll do anything to hurt his golf courses.

On that very topic ... I'm waiting to see how he will try and blackmail the R&A so that they put Turnberry back onto the Open rota. He is absolutely desperate for it to be included - it will do his business good, he is a golf nut and wants 'his' course on the rota but also it will recognize his Scottish (I hate to say that!) roots. I am convinced he will try and put something into the current PGA and LIV discussions that will be an attempt to force the R&A hand. It will be interesting as the blazers at the R&A will see him as a temporary, very vulgar, nouveau riche and unwelcome irritation in their 271 year long history and one who should just be ignored. As a golfer in Scotland who has played all the Open venues, including pre Trump Turnberry, my money is on the R&A!

They will very soon announce where the venues will be for 2028 & 2029 I think, and they're likely to be Muirfield and Lytham (2026 is Birkdale, 2027 St Andrews). That'll be set in stone, beyond his presidential term. The R&A haven't said Turnberry is off the rota, they just haven't chosen it. So there's nothing to overturn, no official ban etc. The R&A will move very slowly and just let it wash over them. The Open venue isn't in the Grant of the PGA or European Tour so there is SFA he can do.

Aware of all that but if the King can be press ganged into hosting Trump again on a State Visit then the R&A would be seen as fair game as well? I agree with you that the R&A will just ignore the whole unseemly episode but I also think there will be pressure on them from Trump via UK Gov etc. The R&A de facto removed Turnberry from the rota by suggesting that there are too many distractions from the game itself if it was to be hosted there ie Trump would use it as a publicity coup. However in the bigger scheme of things ....

[Yeeb]

Been dealt a shitty hand and played it very well on this instance.

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

That's all true, but I don't think Starmer and his team could have played it much better. At the end of the day, however uncomfortable it makes us feel, Starmer has to have the UK as the number one priority and the secret invitation from the King was genius.

Slick me ole chum, I agree with you 100%
Wonder what else team UK have up their sleeve ? Honorary knighthood ? An official backed Glen Trump with coat of arms and tartan (not the one he had created for his golf course)

If Trump does have a glaring weakness, its vanity , wheeling out King Charles is a nuclear weapon of charm for vain Americans.

[Raggs]

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

That's all true, but I don't think Starmer and his team could have played it much better. At the end of the day, however uncomfortable it makes us feel, Starmer has to have the UK as the number one priority and the secret invitation from the King was genius.

Slick me ole chum, I agree with you 100%
Wonder what else team UK have up their sleeve ? Honorary knighthood ? An official backed Glen Trump with coat of arms and tartan (not the one he had created for his golf course)

If Trump does have a glaring weakness, its vanity , wheeling out King Charles is a nuclear weapon of charm for vain Americans.

I think all those things need to now be dangled in front of him, just out of reach, offered as a gift at the end of his tenure if it's gone well. Anything you give up now will be forgotten in a few weeks time.

UK do have a bit of an option on the "Thanks, but no thanks" scale too, of saying they will return to Europe if US doesn't play ball, but if the US plays ball, then the UK becomes a nice go-between should it be required.

[Yeeb]

That's all true, but I don't think Starmer and his team could have played it much better. At the end of the day, however uncomfortable it makes us feel, Starmer has to have the UK as the number one priority and the secret invitation from the King was genius.

Slick me ole chum, I agree with you 100%
Wonder what else team UK have up their sleeve ? Honorary knighthood ? An official backed Glen Trump with coat of arms and tartan (not the one he had created for his golf course)

If Trump does have a glaring weakness, its vanity , wheeling out King Charles is a nuclear weapon of charm for vain Americans.

I think all those things need to now be dangled in front of him, just out of reach, offered as a gift at the end of his tenure if it's gone well. Anything you give up now will be forgotten in a few weeks time.

UK do have a bit of an option on the "Thanks, but no thanks" scale too, of saying they will return to Europe if US doesn't play ball, but if the US plays ball, then the UK becomes a nice go-between should it be required.

There isn’t really the desire to return to EU tbh , and a trade deal with US will further prevent that happening as France doesn’t want McChlorine burgers winging its way to Eu via Liverpool, Belfast and then Dublin .

In other words, who do you think is more likely to shift their stance, the US, the UK, or the Eu ?

The whole 4D chess comes into play with defence and nato, up until yesterdays starmer Trump bromance it seemed the Us was forcing Europe to consider a Euro only NATO with Uk in it, threatening missles not to work or tariffs to pay for it. Defence of the realm is every governments prime concern and will supersede any political nonscence about bendy bananas , sides of busses or even pool shitters

[robmatic]

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

This is true and he is also just mentally erratic, but he is also the cockwomble-in-charge for the next few years, so we have to live with that.

[dpedin]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

[_Os_]

UK do have a bit of an option on the "Thanks, but no thanks" scale too, of saying they will return to Europe if US doesn't play ball, but if the US plays ball, then the UK becomes a nice go-between should it be required.

How politically realistic is that? In aggregate things have gone about as badly as Remain said they would, what was called at the time "project fear", but there's a political consensus to not mention Brexit. The UK has invested an incredible amount into the "special relationship", how bad would it have to be for the political consensus to become "we need a special divorce"? Logically it would need to go worse than Brexit.

Brexiters always wanted any ramshackle US trade deal because they knew it would make it harder to rejoin the EU, you would need to convince people of two things, leaving the US trade deal and rejoining the EU. They couldn't get the deal because even they knew ending UK agri wouldn't go down well, and they didn't want the City to be put at risk of being eaten. Heard some Tory the other day saying he was fine with shutting down UK agri "only 1% of the economy", so maybe their position is moving and they're happy to sacrifice more. The US lost interest because even with Tories happy to take any deal it wasn't going anywhere.

There's not much info, but Starmer seems to be aiming at a non-goods deal with the US which he's calling an "economic and tech deal". This would not be a FTA. It does also seem like Starmer/Labour are sounding out joining the EU's Customs Union which is about goods, UK would be inside Europe's external tariff barrier which would prevent the UK making FTAs. The EFTA countries are in the Single Market and not Customs Union, they make FTAs on their own but they tend to be worse than the deals the EU makes. [two edits on this para dredging up the Brexit knowledge]

It's not clear if Starmer and Trump are talking about the same thing. If Trump decides to make the UK and offer it can't refuse, either new tariffs are lumped on or the chlorinated chickens arrive, then presumably it'll indeed be hard to refuse. Could be that the "economic and tech deal" is an attempt to give Trump something shiny so he goes away.

[Biffer]

On that very topic ... I'm waiting to see how he will try and blackmail the R&A so that they put Turnberry back onto the Open rota. He is absolutely desperate for it to be included - it will do his business good, he is a golf nut and wants 'his' course on the rota but also it will recognize his Scottish (I hate to say that!) roots. I am convinced he will try and put something into the current PGA and LIV discussions that will be an attempt to force the R&A hand. It will be interesting as the blazers at the R&A will see him as a temporary, very vulgar, nouveau riche and unwelcome irritation in their 271 year long history and one who should just be ignored. As a golfer in Scotland who has played all the Open venues, including pre Trump Turnberry, my money is on the R&A!

They will very soon announce where the venues will be for 2028 & 2029 I think, and they're likely to be Muirfield and Lytham (2026 is Birkdale, 2027 St Andrews). That'll be set in stone, beyond his presidential term. The R&A haven't said Turnberry is off the rota, they just haven't chosen it. So there's nothing to overturn, no official ban etc. The R&A will move very slowly and just let it wash over them. The Open venue isn't in the Grant of the PGA or European Tour so there is SFA he can do.

Aware of all that but if the King can be press ganged into hosting Trump again on a State Visit then the R&A would be seen as fair game as well? I agree with you that the R&A will just ignore the whole unseemly episode but I also think there will be pressure on them from Trump via UK Gov etc. The R&A de facto removed Turnberry from the rota by suggesting that there are too many distractions from the game itself if it was to be hosted there ie Trump would use it as a publicity coup. However in the bigger scheme of things ....

The King has obligations to the government. If they want to put a state visit in, he has to pony up, no real choice. They don’t have any swing over the R&A really. And I don’t think the R&A said anything officially, it just hasn’t been selected. What are they going to do, put a special golf tax on? That won’t go down well in businesses and the city! I just don’t see where the leverage is. And if venues are announced, then changed, they’re open to legal action.

[Slick]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

100% all of this. This will all be coordinated by everyone in Europe and the US have gutted any diplomatic expertise and will be played. A lot of people see this great disruptor but diplomacy has been refined over millennia and if you don't play the game eventually you lose. You already have wise old heads in the US seeing this and warning about it.

It might actually turn out to be the best thing that could happen to Europe

[Tichtheid]

I would be fearful for the NHS under any agreement made with the US just now.
Another sector which will be targeted is the creative industry. AI companies want to overturn UK copyright laws and I’ve seen Trump and the tech industry push this.

[Sandstorm]

Ridiculous that a major thrust of the USA/UK negotiations is whether a geriatric's golf course gets a look-in at a 4-day tournament sometime around 2028 - the rest of the UK hold their breath while some more geriatrics mull it over.

[Uncle fester]

Trump is a bit more complementary fave to face and could easily say on Truth Social tomorrow something else.

However, Starmer is clearly a very strong operator with other European leaders.

Been dealt a shitty hand and played it very well on this instance.

The problem is, Trump lapped up being feted and fawned over, he could easily renege on any “deal” and just deny he said what he said.
He is 100% untrustworthy

True but there is no point in antagonising him straight off the bat.

[Yeeb]

I would be fearful for the NHS under any agreement made with the US just now.
Another sector which will be targeted is the creative industry. AI companies want to overturn UK copyright laws and I’ve seen Trump and the tech industry push this.

Why would NHS be threatened if US companies came in to provide private medical care ? More people using private care would surely reduce strain on the NHS?
Private sector already poaches staff from NHS, if only there was a way to rectify that…

[I like neeps]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

Zelensky certainly doesn't have more cards than the US has considering that the US is currently a huge military and financial supplier for Ukraine...

[_Os_]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

100% all of this. This will all be coordinated by everyone in Europe and the US have gutted any diplomatic expertise and will be played. A lot of people see this great disruptor but diplomacy has been refined over millennia and if you don't play the game eventually you lose. You already have wise old heads in the US seeing this and warning about it.

It might actually turn out to be the best thing that could happen to Europe

In the long run Europe is in a strong position, there's immense wealth and capability, on the numbers ahead of the US in many areas. US power comes from their victory in WW2 and the position they negotiated/forced Europe into. It wouldn't be clever for the US to try and undo that to get an even better deal out of Europe. To be blunt, Germany and France are not the same as Panama and Greenland.

There's two problems though. The UK is out on its own and not part of the EU, which makes all this a lot more complicated for the UK (unwanted for Starmer too, he's going to be judged on his domestic record). The US is the most powerful country in the world and has a simple plan "withdraw support, make them pay through tariffs and extortion", so much potential for serious damage.

[_Os_]

Ridiculous that a major thrust of the USA/UK negotiations is whether a geriatric's golf course gets a look-in at a 4-day tournament sometime around 2028 - the rest of the UK hold their breath while some more geriatrics mull it over.

So I'm not the only one reading those posts thinking "shovel mad dog Trump those golf days asap!"?

[I like neeps]

Ridiculous that a major thrust of the USA/UK negotiations is whether a geriatric's golf course gets a look-in at a 4-day tournament sometime around 2028 - the rest of the UK hold their breath while some more geriatrics mull it over.

Very fortuitous if something so trivial can get us significant concessions. Ultimately who cares whether Trump's course is on the open calendar? Completely meaningless in the grand scheme of things e.g. NATO.

[Yeeb]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

100% all of this. This will all be coordinated by everyone in Europe and the US have gutted any diplomatic expertise and will be played. A lot of people see this great disruptor but diplomacy has been refined over millennia and if you don't play the game eventually you lose. You already have wise old heads in the US seeing this and warning about it.

It might actually turn out to be the best thing that could happen to Europe

In the long run Europe is in a strong position, there's immense wealth and capability, on the numbers ahead of the US in many areas. US power comes from their victory in WW2 and the position they negotiated/forced Europe into. It wouldn't be clever for the US to try and undo that to get an even better deal out of Europe. To be blunt, Germany and France are not the same as Panama and Greenland.

There's two problems though. The UK is out on its own and not part of the EU, which makes all this a lot more complicated for the UK (unwanted for Starmer too, he's going to be judged on his domestic record). The US is the most powerful country in the world and has a simple plan "withdraw support, make them pay through tariffs and extortion", so much potential for serious damage.

Right now, with Trump in charge of the US, being out of the EU works in our favour, and tbh less complicated not more. Should Farage become PM, even more so. The difference in tone , body language, and what was actually said, between Trump macron and Trump Starmer , was pretty massive tbh - just remains to be seen how trustworthy or relevant to real life this becomes , because Trump changes what he says and does daily.

[dpedin]

It's pretty clear that Europe have a joined up game plan in how to play Trump and his Government. None of what Starmer did hadn't already been discussed and agreed with the main EU players particularly Macron and Zelensky. Whilst the US think they hold all the cards they are a relatively inexperienced mob when it comes to the world stage and their strength is also their weakness - Trump! This is all about saving face for Trump and making him feel he is getting what he wants and 'winning' the game. For Trump it is all about three things - money, being seen as the 'Big Man' and collecting baubles like State Visits and Nobel Peace Prizes. All this shite about Trump being a clever negotiator, playing a game of 3-D chess or the 'art of the deal' is just plain shite, he is exactly what he is a street wise bully and there is no complicated, clever plan. It is like playing chess with a pigeon. Whilst Trump can be erratic he is also highly predictable - give him the impression he is getting these three things then he is happy. The likes of Macron, Starmer, Zelensky, Von Der Leyen are far more capable, have more cards in their hand than appreciated and will play a long game with Trump. However I am not sure anyone wins in this game.

Zelensky certainly doesn't have more cards than the US has considering that the US is currently a huge military and financial supplier for Ukraine...

Obviously ... but the EU is standing firmly behind Ukraine for obvious reasons and the EU, excluding the UK, has a comparable economy as the US with a larger population but smaller spend on military. However the EU has contributed about $20b more to Ukraine war efforts than the US so far.

Russia is interesting - it is only the 5th largest GDP in Europe behind Germany, UK, France and Italy. EU GDP is about 9 times that of Russia, more if you include the UK. Russian population is largest in Europe but is EU population, including UK, is about 3 times its size. Russian military is severely depleted after 3 years of war with Ukraine and despite efforts to ramp up production it is badly hampered by its poor economic performance, financial situation and sanctions - why else would they depend upon badly trained North Korean cannon fodder? Putin is desperate for a deal via Trump before his forces and economy implodes.

If Europe sticks together, and that's a big if, then they have the means by which to defeat an increasingly desperate Putin.