What's going on in Ukraine?

[Sandstorm]

"we'll ceasefire if Ukraine surrender" seems to be the message.

"BTW we're keeping all the land we stole...."

[Niegs]

Russians asking for it all at the 'negotiation' table!? ... never!

Let's say this goes to a stalemate for years with the front as border. Is it not harder for Russia to hold on? Are they going to keep troops there forever at great cost and probably steady desertions / reluctance to rotate in? Will they try and move settlers in? Or will Donbas people snap up free space?

[Uncle fester]

Russians asking for it all at the 'negotiation' table!? ... never!

Let's say this goes to a stalemate for years with the front as border. Is it not harder for Russia to hold on? Are they going to keep troops there forever at great cost and probably steady desertions / reluctance to rotate in? Will they try and move settlers in? Or will Donbas people snap up free space?

Donbas people are the cannon fodder.
So much for protecting russian speakers.

[Hellraiser]

Sweden is transferring another 18 Archers to Ukraine, plus 5 counter-battery radars.

[Hellraiser]

The Portuguese government has pulled out of joining the F-35 programme due to US political unreliability and will procure a European alternative instead.

[Firewater]

"we'll ceasefire if Ukraine surrender" seems to be the message.

Ukraine could have and should have complied with the Minsk agreements. Instead they wanted to join NATO. And started killing etc Russian speakers who wanted to return and once again be a part of Russia. As they were until recently. Or the USSR.

[Firewater]

Russians asking for it all at the 'negotiation' table!? ... never!

Let's say this goes to a stalemate for years with the front as border. Is it not harder for Russia to hold on? Are they going to keep troops there forever at great cost and probably steady desertions / reluctance to rotate in? Will they try and move settlers in? Or will Donbas people snap up free space?

Donbas people are the cannon fodder.
So much for protecting russian speakers.

Russia initially didn't want the Donbas. Even when they wanted out. Hence the Minsk agreements. But now it's too late. The option is to allow a people to rejoin Russia as they wish. Or more killing, Europe destroyed and maybe WW3

It's obvious what the best solution is for all concerned except for the likes of BlackRock. But too many media lies though that amazingly some still believe

[laurent]

The Portuguese government has pulled out of joining the F-35 programme due to US political unreliability and will procure a European alternative instead.

Excellent :)

[tabascoboy]

Russian media channels speculate that Putin will announce tonight that Russia will not agree to a 30-day ceasefire. They add that Putin will meet Trump’s envoy, Witkoff, this evening after talks with Lukashenko.

US Treasury Secretary Bessant said that the US administration will not hesitate to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia if necessary to succeed in negotiations.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Hellraiser]

Merz has got the votes for the defence and infrastructure constitutional changes needed before the next Bundestag convenes.

[Sandstorm]

Trump making up shit about “Ukrainian soldiers surrounded by Russians” and praying for their safety. Stupid Cnut.

[Flockwitt]

The question is just where the very stable genius will pivot to next now that they've got the response from Russia. I'm not even going to begin to attempt to double guess that.

[Hellraiser]

The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade is being turned into the foundation unit for a 3rd Army Corps. Biletskyi will command and will be promoted to Brigadier General. A foreign fighter in 3AB posted on r/ukraineforeignlegion that 3rd Army Corps will be ~50k strong with a dedicated drone regiment.

https://m.censor.net/en/videonews/35411 ... %20Ukraine

[tabascoboy]

The question is just where the very stable genius will pivot to next now that they've got the response from Russia. I'm not even going to begin to attempt to double guess that.

Most likely IMO the easier option of throwing it all back at Ukraine, and when they decline ( and most of Europe says it's unacceptable ) throw a hissy fit again. But hopefully there are some adults there who understand what two-way negotiation is and will want to increase the pressure on Russia to make at least some concessions to begin with.

[Hellraiser]

Estonian security expert: Putin fears 30-day peace – it could create the possibility of a mutiny in his army

14.03.2025 14:55

Estonian security expert Rainer Saks writes that the Russian president personally avoids direct confrontation with the US president, at the same time he fears his own army.

Russia's actions so far show that it is trying to take into account President Trump's personality and prevent him from making possible emotional decisions to supply Ukraine with even more powerful weapons and the like.

At the moment, the scarce messages could be assessed as not being a final and principled position from Russia. By starting the game of delay, it is hoped that the US will put Ukraine under strong pressure again and stop providing military aid in order to achieve a result. In addition, it is understood that Russia lacks reserves to carry out a major offensive on the front.

If a ceasefire is established on the existing front line, Russia will not be able to gain additional territories, negotiations will rather drag on, and the removal of sanctions will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, it can be assumed that Russia is trying to go all out and achieve the demands all at once.

A ceasefire without a long-term perspective is inconvenient for the Russian leadership, since the entire army that has been concentrated against Ukraine so far must remain in place and there is almost no possibility of demobilizing army units.

This carries the risk of major rebellions and mutinies in the Russian army. The mutiny of the Wagner units has made the Russian leadership very cautious.

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/8210192/ra ... sed-rahuks

[Niegs]

They are a bit overdue for...

[Calculon]

Trump making up shit about “Ukrainian soldiers surrounded by Russians” and praying for their safety. Stupid Cnut.

Just part of trump/putin's narrative that Ukraine is about to collapse ( hold no cards) so they should accept whatever terms Russia want to impose on them

[Flockwitt]

The question is just where the very stable genius will pivot to next now that they've got the response from Russia. I'm not even going to begin to attempt to double guess that.

Most likely IMO the easier option of throwing it all back at Ukraine, and when they decline ( and most of Europe says it's unacceptable ) throw a hissy fit again. But hopefully there are some adults there who understand what two-way negotiation is and will want to increase the pressure on Russia to make at least some concessions to begin with.

Yeah, I was thinking the claim for the 4 oblasts is the key point - and one I'm afraid the US may try to pressure Ukraine into accepting it.

[geordie_6]

The Toxic Wotsit has blamed Ukraine for starting the war, again. "You don't want to pick on somebody that's a lot larger than you" ...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/JerM1Tu8yZ

[Uncle fester]

The Toxic Wotsit has blamed Ukraine for starting the war, again. "You don't want to pick on somebody that's a lot larger than you" ...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/JerM1Tu8yZ

Russian disinformation space

[Hellraiser]

Germany has created the first territorial defense division (Heimatschutzdivision), which will consist of 6,000 soldiers.

This was reported by the "Military" portal with reference to the German Ministry of Defense.

In peacetime, the new division's mission will include protecting critical infrastructure - ports, railway facilities, pipelines, roads, bridges, etc. - as well as facilitating the movement of troops and providing assistance in the event of emergencies and natural disasters.

However, if necessary, territorial defense will also be called upon to counter military threats.

The Territorial Defense Division became the fourth division of the Bundeswehr Ground Forces and Major General Andreas Henne was appointed its commander.

The training of territorial defense fighters consists of a three-month training program, which includes fire training, work with explosive devices, orientation on the ground, as well as training in guarding facilities and working at checkpoints.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Canada is considering cancelling it's remaining order for 72 F-35s.

[Sandstorm]

Canada is considering cancelling it's remaining order for 72 F-35s.

Good.

[Enzedder]

Canada is considering cancelling it's remaining order for 72 F-35s.

Good.

Not just Canada it seems. European NATO countries too

https://fortune.com/2025/03/15/f35-stea ... e-defense/

[Flockwitt]

Zelensky has ruled out recognising the occupied territories as Russian.

[Sandstorm]

Zelensky has ruled out recognising the occupied territories as Russian.

Good lad, tough little bastard. 100% behind him over here.

[geordie_6]

Zelensky has ruled out recognising the occupied territories as Russian.

Important that he has come out and reiterated this in public.

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

Zelensky actually has 4 specific points he’s stated for peace:
No territory conceded
Return of abducted children
Return/freeing of imprisoned civilians (they can’t be exchanged like POWs)
Security guarantees if Russia breaks the peace.

Which Russia certainly won’t agree to so let’s see how this plays out.

[tabascoboy]

Sounds pretty bad, the Kursk operation may have served its purpose but at a steep cost

'Everything is finished': Ukrainian troops relive retreat from Kursk

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Russia's Kursk region have described scenes "like a horror movie" as they retreated from the front lines.

The BBC has received extensive accounts from Ukrainian troops, who recount a "catastrophic" withdrawal in the face of heavy fire, and columns of military equipment destroyed and constant attacks from swarms of Russian drones.

The soldiers, who spoke over social media, were given aliases to protect their identity. Some gave accounts of a "collapse" as Ukraine lost Sudzha, the largest town it held.

Ukrainian restrictions on travel to the front have meant it is not possible to get a full picture of the situation. But this is how five Ukrainian soldiers described to us what had happened.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q198zyppqo

[Flockwitt]

I was trying to piece together the time line for this and I think it kicked off when the US cut aid. Not that the Ukrainians weren't being squeezed back anyway though and would likely have had to get out in any event. A key issue there is those troops were equiped with US Bradleys and Strykers. It'll be something that will come out of the wash, whether the Ukrainians were forced to make the call given they were without sure knowledge of ammo and parts coming through.

[Raggs]

Sounds pretty bad, the Kursk operation may have served its purpose but at a steep cost

'Everything is finished': Ukrainian troops relive retreat from Kursk

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Russia's Kursk region have described scenes "like a horror movie" as they retreated from the front lines.

The BBC has received extensive accounts from Ukrainian troops, who recount a "catastrophic" withdrawal in the face of heavy fire, and columns of military equipment destroyed and constant attacks from swarms of Russian drones.

The soldiers, who spoke over social media, were given aliases to protect their identity. Some gave accounts of a "collapse" as Ukraine lost Sudzha, the largest town it held.

Ukrainian restrictions on travel to the front have meant it is not possible to get a full picture of the situation. But this is how five Ukrainian soldiers described to us what had happened.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q198zyppqo

Some people suggesting that this is Russian propaganda, yes there was a withdrawal but apparently it was reasonably organised, the fact they're talking to soldiers on social media, make me wonder a bit more. Could easily be true though, and the others are just trying to make things look better than they are.

[tabascoboy]

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[Biffer]

German Chancellor going full throttle. Stating that Russia is already at war with Europe through sabotage, assassination, cyber warfare.

Germany has woken up it seems.

[Sandstorm]

Germany has woken up it seems.

Their manufacturing industry are gearing up big-time to make cash hand-over-fis.....I mean to defend us all!

[Uncle fester]

Germany has woken up it seems.

Their manufacturing industry are gearing up big-time to make cash hand-over-fis.....I mean to defend us all!

I'd rather the Germans are on our side if its all the same to you.

[Sandstorm]

Germany has woken up it seems.

Their manufacturing industry are gearing up big-time to make cash hand-over-fis.....I mean to defend us all!

I'd rather the Germans are on our side if its all the same to you.

No argument here

[tabascoboy]

The sell-out begins?

The Russian version by the Kremlin also mentions the following demands for a 30 day ceasefire:

1. Stop on any military aid from the U.S. and any other ally

2. Stop on intelligence sharing [so Ukraine doesn’t know when and if Russia is preparing to attack it]

Putin told Trump to stop Ukraine's mobilisation and rearmament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the event of a ceasefire.

"A key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence support to Kyiv," — the Kremlin said.

Readout of President Donald J. Trump's Call with President Vladimir Putin:

Today, President Trump and President Putin spoke about the need for peace and a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace. They also stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. The blood and treasure that both Ukraine and Russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people.

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

[Uncle fester]

Interesting that Russia's main demand is to stop hitting their oil and gas.

Also interesting that they seem willing to throw Iran under the bus.

[Flockwitt]

The recent oil infrastructure attack are doing real damage and I’d say the Russians are rightly concerned about the new long range Neptunes ongoing. Also as they are coming out of winter the energy attacks on Ukraine are less meaningful.