Saffers

Where goats go to escape
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:47 am
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:31 am
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:16 am
The messaging indicates the ANC are going to keep saying everything is "misinformation" and not change what they're doing. Which means they keep escalating against a super power.
Yup. Really stupid to keep going in the same direction.

I'd like to see Malema arrested and questioned for 8 hours. Put it on the front pages and even say that "Trump suggested it when we were in the White House...." Play to the cnuts ego and de-escalate this.
On what charges? He's already been to court on the issue and the High Court and Constitutional Court and it was judged to be protected political speech. I don't personally agree with the rulings, but should we keep taking swings at Malema and missing? He has become less relevant in each election and is the weakest he has ever been politically. His top lieutenants have all abandoned him and the EFF has had scandal after scandal. All this attention has shoved him into the international spotlight and just rekindled his political career.
The judiciary has a bad habit of making politically convenient rulings for the ANC when the cases are highly politically sensitive, Koos Malan wrote a book which focused a bit on this. The JSC appoints judges and its composition includes a lot of politicians, it has been accused of being captured. Amusingly Malema himself has sat on the JSC.

The reason the law hasn't been applied to Malema is the ANC agree with him, they just dislike his brashness. Ramaphosa has himself said in the past he wants Malema to rejoin the ANC. Ramaphosa struggles to condemn Malema and waffles a lot when the subject comes up.

There are two 4D chess moves the US could be doing by focusing on Malema so heavily. Stigmatise him so heavily that the ANC can never form a coalition with the EFF (this is what Mashatile wants, who is deputy president). Embarrass the ANC so badly that they think again on other politically sensitive cases in the courts, "it's all fine because the courts said this obviously awful thing is actually totally fine", isn't going to work.
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:39 am
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:18 am But instead we have the hard way, the humiliating way, the way with unnecessary damage. Vorster dumped Rhodesia because he was forced by the US. Die Groot Krokodil didn't start implementing reforms out of the goodness of his heart or because his supporters demanded it, he was forced by the US.
Yes, but during that time the choices were US or USSR, and that USA had their shit together. You got in line or you got crushed.

There is little to be gained from being seen as America's lackey and kowtowing to Trump.
He has 2 levers to pull: Tariffs and sanctions...targeted to broad. Both will hurt us economically for sure...but China is waiting in the wings to provide relief for both.

There is little we can do when Trump keeps swinging sticks and isn't providing any carrots.
The carrot is the reforms themselves, there really is no downside to the reforms.

The US also basically controls European foreign policy. As I posted up the thread Malema has already been denied a UK visa. In a sanctions scenario I would expect some mirroring from Europe at least enough to please the US.

That leaves only China, which cannot fill that hole. The economy would implode and good luck to the ANC if that happens. At local level in some parts of the country there are cases of people getting so angry with an ANC councillor they drag the entire family out of their house burn it down and execute them. The DA will be the least of their worries.
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Blake
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Yeeb wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:40 am Is it worth watching all that Trump v Cyril stuff ? Was it as awful as the Zelensky set up ?
Pretty much the same circus. Just a different act.

Cyril had more backup in the room to defuse some of it, but it was the same "ambush diplomacy" that Trump pulls on his "guests".
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Blake
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_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:40 am
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:47 am
Sandstorm wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:31 am

Yup. Really stupid to keep going in the same direction.

I'd like to see Malema arrested and questioned for 8 hours. Put it on the front pages and even say that "Trump suggested it when we were in the White House...." Play to the cnuts ego and de-escalate this.
On what charges? He's already been to court on the issue and the High Court and Constitutional Court and it was judged to be protected political speech. I don't personally agree with the rulings, but should we keep taking swings at Malema and missing? He has become less relevant in each election and is the weakest he has ever been politically. His top lieutenants have all abandoned him and the EFF has had scandal after scandal. All this attention has shoved him into the international spotlight and just rekindled his political career.
The judiciary has a bad habit of making politically convenient rulings for the ANC when the cases are highly politically sensitive, Koos Malan wrote a book which focused a bit on this. The JSC appoints judges and its composition includes a lot of politicians, it has been accused of being captured. Amusingly Malema himself has sat on the JSC.

The reason the law hasn't been applied to Malema is the ANC agree with him, they just dislike his brashness. Ramaphosa has himself said in the past he wants Malema to rejoin the ANC. Ramaphosa struggles to condemn Malema and waffles a lot when the subject comes up.

There are two 4D chess moves the US could be doing by focusing on Malema so heavily. Stigmatise him so heavily that the ANC can never form a coalition with the EFF (this is what Mashatile wants, who is deputy president). Embarrass the ANC so badly that they think again on other politically sensitive cases in the courts, "it's all fine because the courts said this obviously awful thing is actually totally fine", isn't going to work.
Be that is it may, we can't start picking and choosing which court rulings are legitimate or not based on who the judges are or whether or not their rulings are to placate the ANC. Politicising the court further is not a winning strategy. There is no new evidence so the rulings will stay and Malema will win again, futher elevating his currently dwindling power.

The USA getting involved and punishing the ANC will strengthen their hand among the electorate and move them closer to China...both bad outcomes.
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:33 am
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:40 am
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 7:47 am

On what charges? He's already been to court on the issue and the High Court and Constitutional Court and it was judged to be protected political speech. I don't personally agree with the rulings, but should we keep taking swings at Malema and missing? He has become less relevant in each election and is the weakest he has ever been politically. His top lieutenants have all abandoned him and the EFF has had scandal after scandal. All this attention has shoved him into the international spotlight and just rekindled his political career.
The judiciary has a bad habit of making politically convenient rulings for the ANC when the cases are highly politically sensitive, Koos Malan wrote a book which focused a bit on this. The JSC appoints judges and its composition includes a lot of politicians, it has been accused of being captured. Amusingly Malema himself has sat on the JSC.

The reason the law hasn't been applied to Malema is the ANC agree with him, they just dislike his brashness. Ramaphosa has himself said in the past he wants Malema to rejoin the ANC. Ramaphosa struggles to condemn Malema and waffles a lot when the subject comes up.

There are two 4D chess moves the US could be doing by focusing on Malema so heavily. Stigmatise him so heavily that the ANC can never form a coalition with the EFF (this is what Mashatile wants, who is deputy president). Embarrass the ANC so badly that they think again on other politically sensitive cases in the courts, "it's all fine because the courts said this obviously awful thing is actually totally fine", isn't going to work.
Be that is it may, we can't start picking and choosing which court rulings are legitimate or not based on who the judges are or whether or not their rulings are to placate the ANC. Politicising the court further is not a winning strategy. There is no new evidence so the rulings will stay and Malema will win again, futher elevating his currently dwindling power.

The USA getting involved and punishing the ANC will strengthen their hand among the electorate and move them closer to China...both bad outcomes.
But the electorate strongly dislikes radicals and extremists, which is why the EFF is below 10%. South Africans are very conservative people. I know this may sound a bit counter intuitive, but they're not going to reward a party that fucks up, ordinary South Africans are far more clued up than the propagandists in the media. The media pushed Malema and the EFF hard for years, so much more space than the DA, the electorate wasn't interested (more black people vote DA than EFF). Same thing happened with Ramaphosa, he was hyped to the moon, he achieved the ANC's worst election results. People can see they're living in a shithole and loonies are on the loose.

The ANC can try and do a load of mad stuff to hang on (like the Nats). In the end the reforms happen with or without them.
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Blake
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_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:08 am
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:39 am Yes, but during that time the choices were US or USSR, and that USA had their shit together. You got in line or you got crushed.

There is little to be gained from being seen as America's lackey and kowtowing to Trump.
He has 2 levers to pull: Tariffs and sanctions...targeted to broad. Both will hurt us economically for sure...but China is waiting in the wings to provide relief for both.

There is little we can do when Trump keeps swinging sticks and isn't providing any carrots.
The carrot is the reforms themselves, there really is no downside to the reforms.

The US also basically controls European foreign policy. As I posted up the thread Malema has already been denied a UK visa. In a sanctions scenario I would expect some mirroring from Europe at least enough to please the US.

That leaves only China, which cannot fill that hole. The economy would implode and good luck to the ANC if that happens. At local level in some parts of the country there are cases of people getting so angry with an ANC councillor they drag the entire family out of their house burn it down and execute them. The DA will be the least of their worries.
While I agree that the DA Reforms are the right way to go, now due to Trump's influence on proceedings, the ANC has no way of ever implementing them without losing face. If they even hint at some of those reforms they will now be attacked from the left by MK and EFF for being America's lapdog. That's why these conversations are usually done behind closed doors and with a carrot instead of hitting with sticks to lure you to the negotiating table only to be hit some more.

China is collecting allies and treaties while Trump is driving away every partner and breaking every treaty the USA has. At some point China is going to make a move, challenge the Dollar, replace SWIFT and start calling in friends and favours; and when that time comes these White House "meetings" will be remembered. The USA will be isolated...which seems to be what Trump and his benefactors want.

Yes, the ANC was trampling all over the DA and the GNU...with Bela, and the Land Reform and budget. I get it. But the USA exerting public pressure on them is not going to change them and will, in my estimation at least, give them more runway to fuck things up. Now they can stay the course while having a foreign enemy to paint as a bully boogeyman to justify their stubbornness and paint it as a point of pride to not bowing down to a bullied and new wannabe imperial power.

When the economic pain op the next global recession starts rippling across the globe the ANC will be vindicated in the eyes of their loyal electorate who will blame all it's impacts on Trump now, even if he was only responsible for the first domino and it was the ANC that set up the hundreds of others over the last 30 years that will also come crashing down.
Yeeb
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:23 am
Yeeb wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 8:40 am Is it worth watching all that Trump v Cyril stuff ? Was it as awful as the Zelensky set up ?
Pretty much the same circus. Just a different act.

Cyril had more backup in the room to defuse some of it, but it was the same "ambush diplomacy" that Trump pulls on his "guests".
Ok, will give it a miss then - why anyone would have those meet ups with Trump now I have no idea , kangaroo courts & drumhead court martials are fairer
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Blake
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_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:41 am But the electorate strongly dislikes radicals and extremists, which is why the EFF is below 10%. South Africans are very conservative people. I know this may sound a bit counter intuitive, but they're not going to reward a party that fucks up, ordinary South Africans are far more clued up than the propagandists in the media. The media pushed Malema and the EFF hard for years, so much more space than the DA, the electorate wasn't interested (more black people vote DA than EFF). Same thing happened with Ramaphosa, he was hyped to the moon, he achieved the ANC's worst election results. People can see they're living in a shithole and loonies are on the loose.

The ANC can try and do a load of mad stuff to hang on (like the Nats). In the end the reforms happen with or without them.
Just like what happened in Mexico and Canada and Australia and the UK, once Trump starts getting involved and targeting your country 3 things seem to happen:
- There is a surge of patriotism among the people
- There is a slight move to the left as it is seen as a statement against Trump's Authoritarian Right
- And the incumbents get a boost (regardless of their recent performance). It seems as if just standing up to a foreign bully is enough to get them some votes back from voters that might have disengaged.

In all cases that is good for the ANC and bad for the DA, and will give the ANC mandate to fuck things up for another couple of election cycles. That's all I'm saying.
Last edited by Blake on Thu May 22, 2025 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Blake
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Yeeb wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:59 am Ok, will give it a miss then - why anyone would have those meet ups with Trump now I have no idea , kangaroo courts & drumhead court martials are fairer
It plays well to domestic audiences. "Look, we tried, but look how unreasonable he is! He is a buffoon that knows nothing about us yet wants to tell us what to do. But we were brave and stood our ground. We will not bow to his demands. PS: Don't forget to register and vote in the next election."

Trump's gonna do what he wants to do...or what his advisors whisper in his ear. Be it tariffs or sanctions. No meeting will persuade him otherwise. It's all just a performance for their respective domestic audiences.
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Have to say, I agree with everything Blake has said so far
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:53 amWhile I agree that the DA Reforms are the right way to go, now due to Trump's influence on proceedings, the ANC has no way of ever implementing them without losing face. If they even hint at some of those reforms they will now be attacked from the left by MK and EFF for being America's lapdog. That's why these conversations are usually done behind closed doors and with a carrot instead of hitting with sticks to lure you to the negotiating table only to be hit some more.
SA is heading towards 40% unemployment, already above that on the expanded definition, some provinces are pushing past 60% unemployment. It isn't a remotely sustainable economic position, most countries would've blown up already if they had SA's economic numbers. It's frankly completely remarkable the country functions as well as it does.

If the ANC end up in a position where they lose face then it's on them, it's entirely avoidable. What is your scenario where no reforms ever happen?
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:53 amChina is collecting allies and treaties while Trump is driving away every partner and breaking every treaty the USA has. At some point China is going to make a move, challenge the Dollar, replace SWIFT and start calling in friends and favours; and when that time comes these White House "meetings" will be remembered. The USA will be isolated...which seems to be what Trump and his benefactors want.
Some of that is true, but there's limits to how far China can go. The US$ isn't going to be replaced as the reserve currency for example, because whatever people think of Uncle Sam they do all trust him. There's a reason Chinese elites store their wealth offshore mostly in US$ and hard assets (property) in Western countries. There's a reason Russia resorted to literally flying gold bars around in planes to conduct international trade after they were sanctioned. But lets imagine China does challenge more, the US can blockade them quite far out, the Chinese navy is built to invade Taiwan not break through the Strait of Malacca against US air/sea/land assets.
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:53 amYes, the ANC was trampling all over the DA and the GNU...with Bela, and the Land Reform and budget. I get it. But the USA exerting public pressure on them is not going to change them and will, in my estimation at least, give them more runway to fuck things up. Now they can stay the course while having a foreign enemy to paint as a bully boogeyman to justify their stubbornness and paint it as a point of pride to not bowing down to a bullied and new wannabe imperial power.
That's true and what I expect. But there are contradictions in their position. Why do they want to be in a coalition with the DA then? Why is Malema unsuccessful? Why is Zuma hated if he loves Putin so much? South Africans aren't anti-Western they idolise it if anything.

Some in the ANC think they can add Malema and Zuma back into the ANC and get more votes, but Malema and Zuma are both electoral toxic waste (both smaller than the DA). Add them into the ANC and you only get people prepared to vote for Malema and Zuma, likely you make the ANC significantly smaller.
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 9:53 amWhen the economic pain op the next global recession starts rippling across the globe the ANC will be vindicated in the eyes of their loyal electorate who will blame all it's impacts on Trump now, even if he was only responsible for the first domino and it was the ANC that set up the hundreds of others over the last 30 years that will also come crashing down.
They're down to 6.5m voters (DA on 4m) out of an adult population of around 40m. Polling is showing about 25% of that 6.5m is starting to float away. Granted most South Africans don't vote, but they're on their last legs if they don't reform.
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My two cents

1. There is no genocide in South Africa.
2. The Witkruis monument exist and is a private monument erected on private land next to the N1 in rout to Polokwane. I have personally passed this site many times. The crosses use to line the road, but the local authorities declared it illegal under certain by-laws, so the crosses were moved onto private land. It is not a mass grave, it is not crosses for victims of road accidents, there are no remains buried there, but every cross represents the death of a white farmer who was murdered. There are currently about 4000 crosses and every time a white farmer gets murdered another will be added.
3. There are about 140 race-based laws in South Africa that discriminate on people based on their skin colour and cultural heritage.
4. Some of these laws make it harder for white South Africans to work, do business, educate their children in their home language, preserve parts of their culture and own land without the fear of it one day just being taken away.
5. Crime is a huge problem and growing. The lawlessness and corruption must be addressed.
6. Chanting "Shoot someone, kill someone because of the colour of their skin or culture" on a stage in front of masses of people is blatant hate speech and an incitement to violence. Whomever is guilty of this should be publicly condemned, arrested and prosecuted. If we can cancel someone's whole life, fine them all their life savings and destroy their career and means to make a living just because they called someone a monkey then surly, we should do worse to those who call for violence.
7. Blaming white South Africans and apartheid for everything that goes wrong today must stop. Government should stop vilifying white South Africans for its own shortcomings and rather focus on fixing the issues.
8. Using Afrikaners and what happened during Apartheid to score political points only sows further division in our society.
9. Afrikaners should be recognised as fellow South Africans and should be protected under the same laws that protects everyone ells. Political leaders claiming that they are European colonisers who stole the land is wit honne kak.
10. Race based laws targeting white South Africans and negative political rhetoric will only serve to legitimatize the claims that white South Africans are being persecuted and therefore deserves refugee status.
Yeeb
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That 40% unemployment thing - from what I hear from employers , some workers don’t help themselves by just not rocking up for work for a few days/ weeks at a time , and then just one day appearing as normal and expecting to be paid.
Then excuses seem to range from the lame but truthful ‘ehhhhhh I for-got’ to the aldrige prior hopeless liar story , usually involving someone in the implausible chain of events being robbed or set on fire. This isn’t just garden workers , but office or restaurant worker types too.
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Blake
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Sheesh, it's going to to be tough to respond to that post because there's a bunch of interesting ideas going to various directions. All interesting discussions in their own right and all valid points, but each almost justifies and post or even thread of their own.
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 am SA is heading towards 40% unemployment, already above that on the expanded definition, some provinces are pushing past 60% unemployment. It isn't a remotely sustainable economic position, most countries would've blown up already if they had SA's economic numbers. It's frankly completely remarkable the country functions as well as it does.

If the ANC end up in a position where they lose face then it's on them, it's entirely avoidable. What is your scenario where no reforms ever happen?
It's a shitshow. Reforms are needed. The staus quo is not sustainable and the fact the finance minister was even considering increasing VAT to try and fill the hole in the budget just shows how desperate things are. Growth is too slow, the tax base is shrinking and unemployment keeps rising and 15 years in load shedding is still stifling business. We need foreign investment badly and the ANC's BEE policies and land reform policies are just scaring away the little capital that is floating around in these uncertain times.

But the USA cutting off USAID and threatening AGOA and causing a global recessing isn't going to help change this. It just gives the ANC a scapegoat.
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amSome of that is true, but there's limits to how far China can go. The US$ isn't going to be replaced as the reserve currency for example, because whatever people think of Uncle Sam they do all trust him. There's a reason Chinese elites store their wealth offshore mostly in US$ and hard assets (property) in Western countries. There's a reason Russia resorted to literally flying gold bars around in planes to conduct international trade after they were sanctioned. But lets imagine China does challenge more, the US can blockade them quite far out, the Chinese navy is built to invade Taiwan not break through the Strait of Malacca against US air/sea/land assets.
The use of the USD as the global reserve currency was based on the assumption that the USA is a rational actor and would never default on their debt obligations. That assumption is out the window under Trump and many countries are trying to dump their US Bonds. If Trump is willing to tear up treaties left, right and center, who is going to stop him if the serial business failure who has undergone multiple bankruptcies just decides not to pay? Which global institution do Japan and China and other holders of US Bonds appeal to? The whole system was built on trust and the reputation of the USA as a global leader and they are actively antogonising and pushing away all their followers. China will happily fill the power vaccuum.

Could the US Navy crush China's? Almost definitely, but then what? Invade China? Blockade their ports and start WW3? What's the end game here?

_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amThat's true and what I expect. But there are contradictions in their position. Why do they want to be in a coalition with the DA then? Why is Malema unsuccessful? Why is Zuma hated if he loves Putin so much? South Africans aren't anti-Western they idolise it if anything.
Some in the ANC think they can add Malema and Zuma back into the ANC and get more votes, but Malema and Zuma are both electoral toxic waste (both smaller than the DA). Add them into the ANC and you only get people prepared to vote for Malema and Zuma, likely you make the ANC significantly smaller.[/quote]

There are always contradictions in everything the ANC says or does. The GNU with the DA was an arranged marriage because Malema and Zuma were too toxic politically. Nothing more, nothing less. Those who think letting Zuma and Malema back into the ANC will work are crazy.

_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amThey're down to 6.5m voters (DA on 4m) out of an adult population of around 40m. Polling is showing about 25% of that 6.5m is starting to float away. Granted most South Africans don't vote, but they're on their last legs if they don't reform.
Not disagreeing with you. Just saying they won't reform and the quicker we get them to fade into obscurity the better. The stunt by Trump, and the coverage it has generated locally, will, in my estimation at least, prolong that inevitable outcome. Many of those voters how have disengaged previously and don't really follow politics just see Trump attacking SA and Cyril not backing down and that will be enough to get them to participate in the next election.
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 12:14 pm Sheesh, it's going to to be tough to respond to that post because there's a bunch of interesting ideas going to various directions. All interesting discussions in their own right and all valid points, but each almost justifies and post or even thread of their own.
:lol:

It's been awhile since we chatted. I was keeping the replies short so they were easier to reply to, but then you hit a whole load of different points. I'll reply to all the rest in another post, but if you want to keep going we can keep the chain on this reply with shorter messages.

My view is like yours that the ANC cannot reform. The various ANC factions are at loggerheads, not all the crazies have been removed, again I think we agree on this. I think we're differing on how reforms then happen. The thing with someone really committed to the cause is they'll never give up, they have to be circumvented. The ANC has shown it cannot find a way to do that within its current structures, the crazies essentially have a veto. So the road ahead is further break up of the ANC, until there's a workable combination of parties for reform (DA+ANC rump+others).

The quickest way to do that is to show the commies in the ANC (COASTU, SACP) that the ANC are capitalist running dogs (in their terminology), aka stooges of whites. Rupert was in the Oval Office, he is one of Ramaphosa's financial backers, Lamola is clearly one of the favoured successors a Rupert apprentice. ANC elective conferences are an auction, under the table people with money bid to buy votes for their faction. Ramaphosa won against Zuma last time because it was the first time white big business (like Rupert) got involved, they pumped in crazy money and the crooks and BEE tycoons backing Zuma couldn't compete. Zuma and Malema are essentially correct when they rage about whites capturing the ANC. That is going to keep happening, a humiliation for the left. The left will see Trump's action for what it really is and not pretend it's something else, they'll know that too is humiliation. But look at how the media is trying to spin it (the same interests who back Ramaphosa), they're saying it's some sort Ramaphosa win or Trump is personally to blame, they're never going to say "death to America" like the left want. Eventually the left will get tired of the constant humiliation and find a new home.
Last edited by _Os_ on Thu May 22, 2025 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
_Os_
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Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 12:14 pm It's a shitshow. Reforms are needed. The staus quo is not sustainable and the fact the finance minister was even considering increasing VAT to try and fill the hole in the budget just shows how desperate things are. Growth is too slow, the tax base is shrinking and unemployment keeps rising and 15 years in load shedding is still stifling business. We need foreign investment badly and the ANC's BEE policies and land reform policies are just scaring away the little capital that is floating around in these uncertain times.

But the USA cutting off USAID and threatening AGOA and causing a global recessing isn't going to help change this. It just gives the ANC a scapegoat.
But the ANC is many factions, as you also know. It's not a single entity. Which faction feels the most pain? Probably arguments either way. But the faction who hates the West the most will feel the most humiliated. Part of politics is about wanting esteem, no one stays in a party if it makes them feel like shit, they leave and support a party even if they cannot win. You like me have supported the DA your entire life I expect, basically lost every election, but none of it felt bad, the opposite in fact.
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 12:14 pm The use of the USD as the global reserve currency was based on the assumption that the USA is a rational actor and would never default on their debt obligations. That assumption is out the window under Trump and many countries are trying to dump their US Bonds. If Trump is willing to tear up treaties left, right and center, who is going to stop him if the serial business failure who has undergone multiple bankruptcies just decides not to pay? Which global institution do Japan and China and other holders of US Bonds appeal to? The whole system was built on trust and the reputation of the USA as a global leader and they are actively antogonising and pushing away all their followers. China will happily fill the power vaccuum.

Could the US Navy crush China's? Almost definitely, but then what? Invade China? Blockade their ports and start WW3? What's the end game here?
You're going to buy Russian/Chinese/Indian/Brazilian, bonds? Come on. I know you're an investor, if you're investing outside SA which markets are you looking at?

Close to China it's unknown how dominant the US would be, further out it all tips heavily in favour of the US. If China tries anything silly the US can sit on all the chokepoints further out and control what gets in and out (raw material, oil, food, etc). No one invades China that's madness.
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 12:14 pm There are always contradictions in everything the ANC says or does. The GNU with the DA was an arranged marriage because Malema and Zuma were too toxic politically. Nothing more, nothing less. Those who think letting Zuma and Malema back into the ANC will work are crazy.
Zuma and Malema back in is the only alternative to the GNU. Boiled down there's two factions in the ANC, those that want the GNU and have the same financial backers as the DA. Those who are commies and think it's a clever idea to join up with Malema and/or Zuma.

I think reforms happen either way. The ANC/Zuma/Malema option is the sort of crazy shit only a commie could believe as you say it isn't viable, that ends up back at the GNU. The GNU produces reforms once the ANC has been battered enough..
Blake wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 12:14 pm Not disagreeing with you. Just saying they won't reform and the quicker we get them to fade into obscurity the better. The stunt by Trump, and the coverage it has generated locally, will, in my estimation at least, prolong that inevitable outcome. Many of those voters how have disengaged previously and don't really follow politics just see Trump attacking SA and Cyril not backing down and that will be enough to get them to participate in the next election.
I don't think the ANC will ever fully die, it's just which faction ends up owning the brand and how large it is. If they did the reforms their popularity would skyrocket.
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OomStruisbaai
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Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:38 pm
Location: Longest beach in SH

Good to see Trump thumping Ramaphosa and reporters. Man this is about time.
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OomStruisbaai
Posts: 15950
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:38 pm
Location: Longest beach in SH

_Os_
Posts: 2852
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:19 pm

I don't think Rupert did well Oom.

SAPS is run by central government, not the province or the city. The DA has consistently said this is part of the problem with gang violence, that they cannot control it because that needs SAPS which means the ANC. Steenhuisen did well not to reply, because he knew the facts, but that wasn't the time to say "no you are totally wrong you moron".

He couldn't seem to work out the basic issue being discussed, if you have people being murdered and politicians openly singing about their murder, that is not good.

There was other bizarre stuff Rupert came out with "I sleep with my door open", he's a billionaire with his own private mercenaries. How does this add up with what he told Steenhuisen, is he living in a violent province yes or no?

A big part of the problem is how remote SA elites from the country, they literally understand nothing that is happening. Rupert a perfect example, Ramaphosa another. Try and go through their open doors at night without permission and you will be un-alived.

And then the bizarre stuff he came out with about stopping crime with American technology. I mean how about no more affirmative action so people can actually be hired by the SAPS in specialist roles who are not black, rather than all the positions remaining vacant if there's no black applicant :wtf: .
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