So, coronavirus...

[Jb1981]

50,000 cases a day was worse case if nothing was done, wasn’t it? Something was done so pointing to it as a failed prediction seems disingenuous. Was there another prediction re. 50,000 cases a day?

[frodder]

Parts of South Yorkshire going into Tier 3 as well

[C69]

Parts of South Yorkshire going into Tier 3 as well

Fake news, scaremongering, masks don't work.
No second surge etc etc


Fuck the North

[frodder]

Parts of South Yorkshire going into Tier 3 as well

Fake news, scaremongering, masks don't work.
No second surge etc etc


Fuck the North

We're holding on in Cheshire. The clock is ticking until whole of the North is in the hands of the Lannisters

[Bimbowomxn]

Parts of South Yorkshire going into Tier 3 as well

Fake news, scaremongering, masks don't work.
No second surge etc etc


Fuck the North

* stamps feet.

[Sandstorm]

Parts of South Yorkshire going into Tier 3 as well

Fake news, scaremongering, masks don't work.
No second surge etc etc


Fuck the North

*organises house party for 16 friends to hug it out

[Saint]

50,000 cases a day was worse case if nothing was done, wasn’t it? Something was done so pointing to it as a failed prediction seems disingenuous. Was there another prediction re. 50,000 cases a day?

Exactly. It;s a bit like saying there's no second wave because we don;t have the exponential growth of early March. Seeing how we have social distancing, facemasks, rule of 6, sanitisation, and at least some form of track and trace, it would be extremely disturbing if we had that sort of growth rate. It would imply that NONE OF IT WORKED

[Bimbowomxn]

50,000 cases a day was worse case if nothing was done, wasn’t it? Something was done so pointing to it as a failed prediction seems disingenuous. Was there another prediction re. 50,000 cases a day?

Exactly. It;s a bit like saying there's no second wave because we don;t have the exponential growth of early March. Seeing how we have social distancing, facemasks, rule of 6, sanitisation, and at least some form of track and trace, it would be extremely disturbing if we had that sort of growth rate. It would imply that NONE OF IT WORKED

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

[Tichtheid]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

You're going to have to show your working on that.

[Slick]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less

Eh?

[Bimbowomxn]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less

Eh?

The 50,000 positive tests by the 15th of October was impossible.

The curve they demonstrated wasn’t feasible, as we have now demonstrated. Vallance and Whitty must have known that.

[dpedin]

Third visit to gym last night - managed 25 min cycle and 40 mins of weights whilst wearing surgical mask each time and I didn't fall down dead! In fact no discernible difference whatsoever. Gym is well ventilated and has excellent distancing and cleaning processes in place i.e. clean equipment before and after use. Everyone following the rules but as a 61 year old with mild asthma why not wear a mask? Most don't wear one but a few older ones of us do - no comments or even strange looks from anyone just everyone going about their business.

From figures I have seen it looks like we (Scotland) are right on track for a second peak of cases around end of December time just as the modellers said. Interim lock down will slow the numbers and NHS demand down a good bit hopefully but there will still be significant pressure on ICU and acute beds well into Jan and Feb. Central belt already under pressure with existing covid19 designated beds full in some places - St Johns, Livingston - and the most looking to expand covid19 bed and ICU capacity at the expense of routine care. Stay safe.

Also see the Spector app/Kings college study providing even more evidence about the longer term effects of covid19 and says we need to focus not just on excess deaths but also need to consider the health and economic impact of the longer term impact of covid19. Just as well folk were worrying about it now rather than waiting until later?

I see that the dodgy 'bra wummin from Glasgow' Michelle Mone and hubby's business mate Mr Page - is getting in on the crooked PPE contract game via her Tory contacts. Sets up shell company and gets multi million contract to supply PPE via sub contractors a month after setting the company up. £122m to supply 25m gowns. Will probably clear a bigger profit than Burnham was looking for whole of Manchester.

And finally US study of excess deaths suggests that the US has c290,000 excess deaths due to covid19 and its impact - way to go Tango Twat!

I am not even going to mention Brexit and impact on supply chains at same time as all this is happening, I will however be making sure I have sufficient supply of drugs and certain products in run up to new year.

So it is all going well then! Just as well the Blonde Bumblecunt has it all under control and the messaging is clear and concise. Good luck everyone.

[Biffer]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

You're going to have to show your working on that.

He won't. He'll just repeat it, as if that makes it true.

[Bimbowomxn]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

You're going to have to show your working on that.

He won't. He'll just repeat it, as if that makes it true.

You’ve seen the graph right? And how it compares?

[Bimbowomxn]

50,000 cases a day was worse case if nothing was done, wasn’t it? Something was done so pointing to it as a failed prediction seems disingenuous. Was there another prediction re. 50,000 cases a day?

Exactly. It;s a bit like saying there's no second wave because we don;t have the exponential growth of early March. Seeing how we have social distancing, facemasks, rule of 6, sanitisation, and at least some form of track and trace, it would be extremely disturbing if we had that sort of growth rate. It would imply that NONE OF IT WORKED

Where was locked down tighter during the supposed rise?

[Mr Bungle]

Singapore, October 20

Researchers in Singapore have developed a breath test to detect Covid-19 within a minute. The authorities are working on a roadmap for the third phase of easing of safety measures in the country.


A person would have to blow into a disposable mouthpiece connected to a “high-precision breath sampler”, according to the National University of Singapore researchers. The test, which detects Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in a person’s breath, achieved more than 90 per cent accuracy in a clinical trial involving 180 patients.

The exhaled breath is then collected and fed into a mass spectrometer for measurement. A machine learning software subsequently analyses the VOC profile and generates the result in less than a minute. — PTI

[Bimbowomxn]

Singapore, October 20

Researchers in Singapore have developed a breath test to detect Covid-19 within a minute. The authorities are working on a roadmap for the third phase of easing of safety measures in the country.


A person would have to blow into a disposable mouthpiece connected to a “high-precision breath sampler”, according to the National University of Singapore researchers. The test, which detects Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in a person’s breath, achieved more than 90 per cent accuracy in a clinical trial involving 180 patients.

The exhaled breath is then collected and fed into a mass spectrometer for measurement. A machine learning software subsequently analyses the VOC profile and generates the result in less than a minute. — PTI

Let’s hope all positives are confirmed with a second test.

[Saint]

Singapore, October 20

Researchers in Singapore have developed a breath test to detect Covid-19 within a minute. The authorities are working on a roadmap for the third phase of easing of safety measures in the country.


A person would have to blow into a disposable mouthpiece connected to a “high-precision breath sampler”, according to the National University of Singapore researchers. The test, which detects Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in a person’s breath, achieved more than 90 per cent accuracy in a clinical trial involving 180 patients.

The exhaled breath is then collected and fed into a mass spectrometer for measurement. A machine learning software subsequently analyses the VOC profile and generates the result in less than a minute. — PTI

Interesting, although 90% accuracy probably won't be enough to get borders reopened

[frodder]

Singapore, October 20

Researchers in Singapore have developed a breath test to detect Covid-19 within a minute. The authorities are working on a roadmap for the third phase of easing of safety measures in the country.


A person would have to blow into a disposable mouthpiece connected to a “high-precision breath sampler”, according to the National University of Singapore researchers. The test, which detects Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in a person’s breath, achieved more than 90 per cent accuracy in a clinical trial involving 180 patients.

The exhaled breath is then collected and fed into a mass spectrometer for measurement. A machine learning software subsequently analyses the VOC profile and generates the result in less than a minute. — PTI

Interesting, although 90% accuracy probably won't be enough to get borders reopened

You just need a handy Mass Spec instrument at every station. Please don't confuse Boris with this

[Ovals]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

You're going to have to show your working on that.

He won't. He'll just repeat it, as if that makes it true.

Why bother with him - he's an utter moron.

[Jb1981]

50,000 cases a day was worse case if nothing was done, wasn’t it? Something was done so pointing to it as a failed prediction seems disingenuous. Was there another prediction re. 50,000 cases a day?

Exactly. It;s a bit like saying there's no second wave because we don;t have the exponential growth of early March. Seeing how we have social distancing, facemasks, rule of 6, sanitisation, and at least some form of track and trace, it would be extremely disturbing if we had that sort of growth rate. It would imply that NONE OF IT WORKED

Where was locked down tighter during the supposed rise?

Locked down more tightly during the second rise than early March? Anywhere with a lockdown surely - didn’t your first lockdowns only start in late March?

[Tichtheid]

Mathematically impossible?

You're going to have to show your working on that.

He won't. He'll just repeat it, as if that makes it true.

You’ve seen the graph right? And how it compares?

Show us the graph and explain how it is mathematically impossible to reach 50 000 cases per day.

[Openside]

My mistake: you are there already.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

Laboratory tests showed the penetration of particles through the cloth masks to be very high (97%) compared with medical masks (44%) (used in trial) and 3M 9320 N95 (<0.01%), 3M Vflex 9105 N95 (0.1%).

You really need to read the updates and the responses to that five year old article before posting it as any kind of proof again.

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

[Tichtheid]

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

Scotland are reigning champions of the 5N.

[frodder]

You really need to read the updates and the responses to that five year old article before posting it as any kind of proof again.

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

Yep, it was the British. The Prussians, Hanoverians and Dutch had nothing to do with it.

[robmatic]

You really need to read the updates and the responses to that five year old article before posting it as any kind of proof again.

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

The battle that ended war in Europe?

[Saint]

Exactly. It;s a bit like saying there's no second wave because we don;t have the exponential growth of early March. Seeing how we have social distancing, facemasks, rule of 6, sanitisation, and at least some form of track and trace, it would be extremely disturbing if we had that sort of growth rate. It would imply that NONE OF IT WORKED

Where was locked down tighter during the supposed rise?

Locked down more tightly during the second rise than early March? Anywhere with a lockdown surely - didn’t your first lockdowns only start in late March?

The "soft" lockdown (WFH if possible pubs stayed open etc was 16th March. Hard lockdown was 23rd March - stay at home, pubs closed, etc. Deaths peaked around 3 weeks later and started properly falling a week after that. So, if Tier 3 is going to be sufficient then it's going to be mid November to peak and a tail off towards Christmas.

[Sandstorm]

The "soft" lockdown (WFH if possible pubs stayed open etc was 16th March. Hard lockdown was 23rd March - stay at home, pubs closed, etc. Deaths peaked around 3 weeks later and started properly falling a week after that. So, if Tier 3 is going to be sufficient then it's going to be mid November to peak and a tail off towards Christmas.

Surely the evidence points (admittedly through a rather average Track and Trace App) that pubs, etc are not where people catch Covid. Even hundreds wandering around town at midnight OUTSIDE isn't the issue.
It's at home mixing with friends and family. Tier 3 isn't going to change that.

Number dropped sharply in April because everyone was worried about Covid and did as they were asked regarding isolating and saving the NHS. This time 1/2 the country don't give a shit.

[Insane_Homer]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

Yep, it is when using Excel 2003!

[Saint]

The "soft" lockdown (WFH if possible pubs stayed open etc was 16th March. Hard lockdown was 23rd March - stay at home, pubs closed, etc. Deaths peaked around 3 weeks later and started properly falling a week after that. So, if Tier 3 is going to be sufficient then it's going to be mid November to peak and a tail off towards Christmas.

Surely the evidence points (admittedly through a rather average Track and Trace App) that pubs, etc are not where people catch Covid. Even hundreds wandering around town at midnight OUTSIDE isn't the issue.
It's at home mixing with friends and family. Tier 3 isn't going to change that.

Number dropped sharply in April because everyone was worried about Covid and did as they were asked regarding isolating and saving the NHS. This time 1/2 the country don't give a shit.

I think it depends how people treat Tier 3. If it;s a short sharp reminder to them that they need to distance, take hygiene seriously etc even in their own homes then it will work. To a point I agree that half the country don't give a shit - which hopefully this will shock them into giving a shit

[fishfoodie]

The "soft" lockdown (WFH if possible pubs stayed open etc was 16th March. Hard lockdown was 23rd March - stay at home, pubs closed, etc. Deaths peaked around 3 weeks later and started properly falling a week after that. So, if Tier 3 is going to be sufficient then it's going to be mid November to peak and a tail off towards Christmas.

Surely the evidence points (admittedly through a rather average Track and Trace App) that pubs, etc are not where people catch Covid. Even hundreds wandering around town at midnight OUTSIDE isn't the issue.
It's at home mixing with friends and family. Tier 3 isn't going to change that.

Number dropped sharply in April because everyone was worried about Covid and did as they were asked regarding isolating and saving the NHS. This time 1/2 the country don't give a shit.

The critical factor is time.

In a pub, you probably aren't going to be 15 minutes with anyone, other than the people you're sat around the table with; in the chippie afterward, it'd only be the people either side of you in queue etc.

The problem is if it's staff that are infectious; then they're going to be potentially moving around passing it onto other staff, & customers; but if they are following good practises, that risk is reduced significantly.

[Tichtheid]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less.

Mathematically impossible?

Yep, it is when using Excel 2003!

Good point, well made.

[Hal Jordan]

You really need to read the updates and the responses to that five year old article before posting it as any kind of proof again.

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

Yep, it was the British. The Prussians, Hanoverians and Dutch had nothing to do with it.

The Irish were there, too.

[fishfoodie]

I read a 205 year old report that the British were victorious at Waterloo, is it still valid??

Yep, it was the British. The Prussians, Hanoverians and Dutch had nothing to do with it.

The Irish were there, too.

We fought on both sides; so we both won & lost that day

[Slick]

50,000 a day was mathematically impossible. It was a scare tactic. Nothing more nothing less

Eh?

The 50,000 positive tests by the 15th of October was impossible.

The curve they demonstrated wasn’t feasible, as we have now demonstrated. Vallance and Whitty must have known that.

Eh?

[Insane_Homer]

"Impossible" has now morphed to "not feasible" "we"

The link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

The Graph


The Math
Base cases 15-Sep 3,105
after 1 week 6,210
after 2 week 12,420
after 3 week 24,840
after 4 week 49,680

for scenario "If cases double every week"

[Insane_Homer]

for 3,105 to reach the 17,234 as per above the weekly reproduction factor was ~1.535 per week as opposed to the do nothing, doubling, worst case scenario of 2.

[Hal Jordan]

I see some cunt Tory MP's response to the suggestion that we give food to hungry kids via an extension to the free school meals into the holiday is, "Children have been going hungry under a Labour Government for years" and then some bullshit about Universal Credit.

[Bimbowomxn]

"Impossible" has now morphed to "not feasible" "we"

The link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

The Graph


The Math
Base cases 15-Sep 3,105
after 1 week 6,210
after 2 week 12,420
after 3 week 24,840
after 4 week 49,680

for scenario "If cases double every week"

What would the R need to be on the 15 Sep for this to be possible. ?

Impossible

Why the 15th September? The report you’ve produced is already a week in without doubling. IE impossible.

[Bimbowomxn]

I see some cunt Tory MP's response to the suggestion that we give food to hungry kids via an extension to the free school meals into the holiday is, "Children have been going hungry under a Labour Government for years" and then some bullshit about Universal Credit.

It’s a parents job to feed their children.