So, coronavirus...

[Biffer]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

I think there are about 15 million people over 60 in the UK. 20-30% of the population has some kind of Co morbidity. It'll be some kind of combo of over a certain age plus key workers particularly in health and care settings, and key comorbidities. I think teachers might not be included next year.

[Bimbowomxn]

I've linked the source for the data, government released figures.

Where you sucking 11% from?

and once again, for the umpteenth time, presupposing what I should be posting and when

I’m taking 11% from the metric you’ve applied to reporting deaths.

And once again, I’ll point out you have an agenda ....

Deaths? I thought it was cases

Week to week comparison -2.5%, couldn't be clearer.

weekly.JPG

7 day previous cases vs cases being discussed down 11%. Last Sunday 23,254.


This is like false positives you don’t understand anything you actually post.

[Bimbowomxn]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

I think there are about 15 million people over 60 in the UK. 20-30% of the population has some kind of Co morbidity. It'll be some kind of combo of over a certain age plus key workers particularly in health and care settings, and key comorbidities. I think teachers might not be included next year.

[Tichtheid]

It's not often I'm left open mouthed, blinking at a screen from something someone posts on internet boards these days.

[Insane_Homer]

7 day previous cases vs cases being discussed down 11%. Last Sunday 23,254.

mode on
That's funny because you don't seem to announce when the day-to-day cases comparison show a rise, do you have some sort of agenda? Why is that? Very strange... Just cherry pick the stats you like and only comment on those?
mode off

Sound familar?

[C69]

Mid November before finalised safety data.
Uk has bought 30m could be up and running by the end of the month with 1.3bn possibly produced by the end of next year.

If I read it right, we have 30m ordered, which would be 15m people. Realistically if we see 20,000 doses in the UK this side of Christmas I'd be surprised

Perhaps if we had a half competent system in place we would get the logistics sorted out.
We need more Tory consultancy spivs to spaff our taxes on.

[Tichtheid]

It's funny how these things work, I've just seen a story in the Independent that with news of the vaccine's efficacy Zoom's share price tumbled.

[Bimbowomxn]

7 day previous cases vs cases being discussed down 11%. Last Sunday 23,254.

mode on
That's funny because you don't seem to announce when the day-to-day cases comparison show a rise, do you have some sort of agenda? Why is that? Very strange... Just cherry pick the stats you like and only comment on those?
mode off

Sound familar?

So we all accept it’s an 11% fall in cases. Thanks for that.

[Bimbowomxn]

It's funny how these things work, I've just seen a story in the Independent that with news of the vaccine's efficacy Zoom's share price tumbled.

If this is a surprise I’d imagine most things leave you open mouthed in amazement.

[Rinkals]

Every statement regarding the timings of restrictions are well known and nothing literally nothing has said that lockdowns work in a day. Saturday count would have been tests taken within 24 hours of the lockdown (and I’m being immensely generous as most would have been tests taken before last Thursday).

So to summrise, you are saying the lockdown will have absolutely no impact on the number of cases dropping, deaths dropping etc etc, nothing at all? Or are you saying that it will have a positive impact but that it will take time for those stats to filter through?

So to summarise, I made an immensely clear point regarding the lockdown dates and therefore the relationship with current falling case numbers.

I think it’s fairly obvious if everyone stays home the spread of the virus is slowed and of course have posted nothing that says otherwise.

You may summarise it that way, but I doubt anyone else would.

[Bimbowomxn]

Mid November before finalised safety data.
Uk has bought 30m could be up and running by the end of the month with 1.3bn possibly produced by the end of next year.

If I read it right, we have 30m ordered, which would be 15m people. Realistically if we see 20,000 doses in the UK this side of Christmas I'd be surprised

Perhaps if we had a half competent system in place we would get the logistics sorted out.
We need more Tory consultancy spivs to spaff our taxes on.

Something else the largest employer in the country can’t organise.

[C69]

Dido is rubbing her filthy hands

[Saint]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

[Saint]

Mid November before finalised safety data.
Uk has bought 30m could be up and running by the end of the month with 1.3bn possibly produced by the end of next year.

If I read it right, we have 30m ordered, which would be 15m people. Realistically if we see 20,000 doses in the UK this side of Christmas I'd be surprised

Perhaps if we had a half competent system in place we would get the logistics sorted out.
We need more Tory consultancy spivs to spaff our taxes on.

Given the cooling requirements it's going to be tough to work this one out. The facilities to store this don't exist outside of the large hospitals - so tge sort of distributed vaccination effort that we use for influenza won't apply (or we will need some massive infrastructure investment)

Oxford expecting to publish interim data in the next week or so, and would be far easier to distribute

[Biffer]

If I read it right, we have 30m ordered, which would be 15m people. Realistically if we see 20,000 doses in the UK this side of Christmas I'd be surprised

Perhaps if we had a half competent system in place we would get the logistics sorted out.
We need more Tory consultancy spivs to spaff our taxes on.

Given the cooling requirements it's going to be tough to work this one out. The facilities to store this don't exist outside of the large hospitals - so tge sort of distributed vaccination effort that we use for influenza won't apply (or we will need some massive infrastructure investment)

Oxford expecting to publish interim data in the next week or so, and would be far easier to distribute

There are significant facilities for -80C storage at universities as well.

[Biffer]

Professor John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford was on the World at One today, from about 10 minutes in

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000p6f9

Someone in that position doesn't make such unequivocal answers unless he is very confident.

"so, do we now say with confidence that life should be returning to normal by spring?"
"Yes. Yes, yes"

[tc27]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

[Raggs]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

If you do the staff, it's less important to do the residents, if you do the residents, it's less important to do the staff.

Hospital staff will be in close contact with many more different people, and teachers can also spread it quite far. Care home residents are unlikely to seed it elsewhere easily compared to hospital patients and pupils in my mind. Protect them as vulnerable, but if we can kill transmission routes, we can protect them that way too.

[Tichtheid]

Professor John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford was on the World at One today, from about 10 minutes in

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000p6f9

Someone in that position doesn't make such unequivocal answers unless he is very confident.

"so, do we now say with confidence that life should be returning to normal by spring?"
"Yes. Yes, yes"

My wife has worked with him, "He's very good" - high praise, not given lightly.

[Openside]

320 Tory MPs now completely fecked off. Having voted for not providing school meals

Free school meals outside of school in the holidays. Just to clarify the lie.

Its' relentless. I am all for feeding hungry children but the whole 'its someone else's responsibility' really pisses me off.

[Openside]

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

If you do the staff, it's less important to do the residents, if you do the residents, it's less important to do the staff.

Hospital staff will be in close contact with many more different people, and teachers can also spread it quite far. Care home residents are unlikely to seed it elsewhere easily compared to hospital patients and pupils in my mind. Protect them as vulnerable, but if we can kill transmission routes, we can protect them that way too.

good point. I guess best to do the residents (if its safe for the elderly) as then they can have visitors too.

[Sandstorm]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

Prem footballers first, Shirley?

[Biffer]

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

Prem footballers first, Shirley?

Props first, then locks, then back rows.

Wingers some time around July 2022.

Priority decided by amount of proximity to opposition.

[Northern Lights]

MIght just be me and I am certainly no anti-vaxer nutbar but given how quickly this vaccine has been developed i dont mind not being in the first 15m people in line to get this, especially reading Saint's posts about this being very cutting edge in terms of vaccine development as well.

Great news on the whole though with fingers crossed a holiday to look forward to next summer.

[Saint]

MIght just be me and I am certainly no anti-vaxer nutbar but given how quickly this vaccine has been developed i dont mind not being in the first 15m people in line to get this, especially reading Saint's posts about this being very cutting edge in terms of vaccine development as well.

Great news on the whole though with fingers crossed a holiday to look forward to next summer.

You can over-read this. This is a technology that's been in development for 10+ years and is proven to work - a number of flu vaccines for recent strains have been tested and developed for instance. But this is the first time it's been used at any sort of scale, so regulators are going to be far more cautious than usual

[Bimbowomxn]

MIght just be me and I am certainly no anti-vaxer nutbar but given how quickly this vaccine has been developed i dont mind not being in the first 15m people in line to get this, especially reading Saint's posts about this being very cutting edge in terms of vaccine development as well.

Great news on the whole though with fingers crossed a holiday to look forward to next summer.

You can over-read this. This is a technology that's been in development for 10+ years and is proven to work - a number of flu vaccines for recent strains have been tested and developed for instance. But this is the first time it's been used at any sort of scale, so regulators are going to be far more cautious than usual

If they sign it off this year they’re certainly not being “more cautious “ .

[Bimbowomxn]

Oh and fuck you Van Tam.

“It’s not feeling a bit rubbish”

[Saint]

MIght just be me and I am certainly no anti-vaxer nutbar but given how quickly this vaccine has been developed i dont mind not being in the first 15m people in line to get this, especially reading Saint's posts about this being very cutting edge in terms of vaccine development as well.

Great news on the whole though with fingers crossed a holiday to look forward to next summer.

You can over-read this. This is a technology that's been in development for 10+ years and is proven to work - a number of flu vaccines for recent strains have been tested and developed for instance. But this is the first time it's been used at any sort of scale, so regulators are going to be far more cautious than usual

If they sign it off this year they’re certainly not being “more cautious “ .

An awful lot of the time taken in usual sign off is hanging around for the scheduled meeting to rubber stamp things

[Longshanks]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
Edit. Doing own research

[Biffer]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
USA?
France?
Germany?
Ireland?
Others?
Only so much to go round.

You can guarantee the Lions share will go to western countries to start with.

USA and Canada 350million
EU and UK 500 million
Japan, S Korea, Oz, NZ 200 million

There’s about a billion. Reckon you might see half the population of these countries done in the first year after it becomes available through mass production.

[Ymx]

Up to Sat 7th Nov

So still in the tier 3 induced cases period

Full lockdown to start affecting cases 12th Nov

[Saint]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
Edit. Doing own research

The government don't want this to be the answer as it's a logistical nightmare. 40 million doses, 20 million promised before Christmas supposedly,

AstraZeneca due in the next couple of weeks, appears to induce a similar immune response, so the expectation would be a similar level of effectiveness

[Saint]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
USA?
France?
Germany?
Ireland?
Others?
Only so much to go round.

You can guarantee the Lions share will go to western countries to start with.

USA and Canada 350million
EU and UK 500 million
Japan, S Korea, Oz, NZ 200 million

There’s about a billion. Reckon you might see half the population of these countries done in the first year after it becomes available through mass production.

No-one has the first clue how we might distribute a vaccine required to be stored at -80 degrees in Africa, east Asia etc. This is a first world solution only

[Sandstorm]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
USA?
France?
Germany?
Ireland?
Others?
Only so much to go round.

You can guarantee the Lions share will go to western countries to start with.

USA and Canada 350million
EU and UK 500 million
Japan, S Korea, Oz, NZ 200 million

There’s about a billion. Reckon you might see half the population of these countries done in the first year after it becomes available through mass production.

No-one has the first clue how we might distribute a vaccine required to be stored at -80 degrees in Africa, east Asia etc. This is a first world solution only

Be interesting how you can tell the temp didn’t temporarily drop to -55 during transit either.

[Jock42]

15 million is still a good number. Who you give it to could be key though.

For me, anyone capable of working from home is bottom of the list. Teachers, public transport staff, NHS etc, and the vulnerable top of the list. Help those who are at risk, and stop those who would be most likely to spread it.

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

NHS

Then bartenders in my favourite pubs.

[Bimbowomxn]

Clearly the government want to keep our expectations of the vaccine in check. I liked Van-Tam's illustration of scoring a penalty in a shoot out, we know the goalkeeper can be beaten.
So uk has 40 million doses, which should be near front of the queue, what's the situation in other countries?
USA?
France?
Germany?
Ireland?
Others?
Only so much to go round.

You can guarantee the Lions share will go to western countries to start with.

USA and Canada 350million
EU and UK 500 million
Japan, S Korea, Oz, NZ 200 million

There’s about a billion. Reckon you might see half the population of these countries done in the first year after it becomes available through mass production.

No-one has the first clue how we might distribute a vaccine required to be stored at -80 degrees in Africa, east Asia etc. This is a first world solution only

Awww, like wind farms then.

[Northern Lights]

MIght just be me and I am certainly no anti-vaxer nutbar but given how quickly this vaccine has been developed i dont mind not being in the first 15m people in line to get this, especially reading Saint's posts about this being very cutting edge in terms of vaccine development as well.

Great news on the whole though with fingers crossed a holiday to look forward to next summer.

You can over-read this. This is a technology that's been in development for 10+ years and is proven to work - a number of flu vaccines for recent strains have been tested and developed for instance. But this is the first time it's been used at any sort of scale, so regulators are going to be far more cautious than usual

Furry muff. I still get to see how the oldies, NHS staff and OJ’s bartenders trial it out first and see if they grow an extra head or wings or whatever

[Saint]

You can guarantee the Lions share will go to western countries to start with.

USA and Canada 350million
EU and UK 500 million
Japan, S Korea, Oz, NZ 200 million

There’s about a billion. Reckon you might see half the population of these countries done in the first year after it becomes available through mass production.

No-one has the first clue how we might distribute a vaccine required to be stored at -80 degrees in Africa, east Asia etc. This is a first world solution only

Be interesting how you can tell the temp didn’t temporarily drop to -55 during transit either.

There's medical grade transport freezers that guarantee temperature to +/- 0.1 degrees. The first couple of stages of transit are the easy part - we can easily get this to the major hospitals that have the necessary storage capability. Getting it beyond there will be extremely difficult. In theory, it's supposed to be stable for up to 24 hours at higher temps, so subdistribution to pharmacies MIGGT be possible - the trouble being how to handle it, as even while it's warming up it would still be far too cold to handle

[Raggs]

No-one has the first clue how we might distribute a vaccine required to be stored at -80 degrees in Africa, east Asia etc. This is a first world solution only

Be interesting how you can tell the temp didn’t temporarily drop to -55 during transit either.

There's medical grade transport freezers that guarantee temperature to +/- 0.1 degrees. The first couple of stages of transit are the easy part - we can easily get this to the major hospitals that have the necessary storage capability. Getting it beyond there will be extremely difficult. In theory, it's supposed to be stable for up to 24 hours at higher temps, so subdistribution to pharmacies MIGGT be possible - the trouble being how to handle it, as even while it's warming up it would still be far too cold to handle

I was going to say it must survive at warmer temps for at least a time. If you know how many doses you have lined up for the day, you can take them out in the morning, and there's no issue?

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Provisionally, they're talking frontline healthcare, at-risk, then by age. Although safety data could impact that - for instance, some at-risk may be advised not to take it

Care home residents and staff first I would think.

Then hospital staff and teachers.

NHS

Then bartenders in my favourite pubs.

That might leave you with only nurses in the pub for company, so you might need to rethink your plan