So, coronavirus...

[Insane_Homer]

Official statement from Public Health England:

"Due to a delay in processing England deaths data, the deaths figures for England and UK have not been updated. These will be updated as soon as possible."

[Insane_Homer]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Bimbowomxn]

[Openside]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Since we have been in lockdown for a week now surely the vast majority of those cases will have been caught post lockdown? So it begs the question how effective lockdown is as a tool for controlling the spread???

[C69]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Since we have been in lockdown for a week now surely the vast majority of those cases will have been caught post lockdown? So it begs the question how effective lockdown is as a tool for controlling the spread???

No not really givent that the incubation period is thought to be three to 14 days.

Especially if the symproms are mild initially until you decide to get tested after a few more days say 3 days.

[Openside]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Since we have been in lockdown for a week now surely the vast majority of those cases will have been caught post lockdown? So it begs the question how effective lockdown is as a tool for controlling the spread???

No not really givent that the incubation period is thought to be three to 14 days.

Especially if the symproms are mild initially until you decide to get tested after a few more days say 3 days.

3-5 days is very much the norm 14 days a massive outlier. Even so a jump like that is a bit mystifying.

[Biffer]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

[Sandstorm]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

Sounds like bullshit to me.

[C69]

Since we have been in lockdown for a week now surely the vast majority of those cases will have been caught post lockdown? So it begs the question how effective lockdown is as a tool for controlling the spread???

No not really givent that the incubation period is thought to be three to 14 days.

Especially if the symproms are mild initially until you decide to get tested after a few more days say 3 days.

3-5 days is very much the norm 14 days a massive outlier. Even so a jump like that is a bit mystifying.

That is the median time however it could explain the delay especially given a few days of symptoms before getting tested

[Bimbowomxn]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

That would certainly explain why cases have doubled in the last 14 days.....





Oh hang on a sec.

[Bimbowomxn]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Since we have been in lockdown for a week now surely the vast majority of those cases will have been caught post lockdown? So it begs the question how effective lockdown is as a tool for controlling the spread???

The delay in getting results also says these cases were pre lockdown.

We have introduced a new test of course being mass deployed by the Army which is even less accurate than the PCR test. Also every one positive by the Lateral Flow test then takes a PCR test.

Of course we can’t now prove any of this because the government aren’t releasing the results split by test (which is frightening).

[Openside]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

Fair point! It makes trying to extract meaningful data almost impossible.

[Raggs]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

Fair point! It makes trying to extract meaningful data almost impossible.

It's why lockdown needs to be at least 4 weeks to be seriously effective. It allows it to likely go through a household and be contained within it.

[Ted.]

Lockdowns are terrible things. They're extremely bad for the economy. Wicked wicked lockdowns are the worst thing we could possibly do to fight this virus.

The Government’s accounts are in much better shape than forecast with the deficit almost half what was predicted.

Treasury has released the Government’s accounts for the three months to September 30, 2020. They show smaller deficits and lower debt than forecast just months ago.

The main reason is that a better economy has more people spending and paying taxes, meaning that there’s more revenue flowing into the Government's coffers.

That better economy also means there are fewer people and businesses needing support, so the Government is spending less.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... der-budget

[Ymx]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

Fair point! It makes trying to extract meaningful data almost impossible.

I was trying to find stats on this. Percentage of cases caught by a member of the household.

Obviously no level of lock down reduces this.

The effect of a new set of restrictions should take effect
- a week after the date of change for inter-house spreading
- though the previous system would likely continue to affect household spreading for a couple of weeks after that.

So it’s really only about 3 weeks after are you looking at full effects of new system, while old system effects taper off.

As example

Weeks
0-1 nothing to do with new change for either inter house or intra house spreading of infections.
1-2 inter house spread attributed to new restrictions. Intra house attributed still to before new restrictions.
2-3 inter house spreading by new constraints. intra house would be a mix from before an after restrictions.
3+ infections could be fully attributed to new restrictions

[Ymx]

Lockdowns are terrible things. They're extremely bad for the economy. Wicked wicked lockdowns are the worst thing we could possibly do to fight this virus.

The Government’s accounts are in much better shape than forecast with the deficit almost half what was predicted.

Treasury has released the Government’s accounts for the three months to September 30, 2020. They show smaller deficits and lower debt than forecast just months ago.

The main reason is that a better economy has more people spending and paying taxes, meaning that there’s more revenue flowing into the Government's coffers.

That better economy also means there are fewer people and businesses needing support, so the Government is spending less.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... der-budget

NZ strategy worked for NZ. Although in absence of a vaccine, NZ strategy would fail in the mid term.

There was no squashing this thing in the UK and most other countries.

[Sandstorm]

The successful NZ strategy of dealing with Covid in a country that didn’t have Covid..... bravo.

[TB63]

The successful NZ strategy of dealing with Covid in a country that didn’t have Covid..... bravo.

[Insane_Homer]

#DailyCovidUpdate | 12th November 2020

Cases: +33,470
Deaths: +563

[Monkey Magic]

Also, if every person who caught it the week before lockdown infects two other people in their household, then it keeps going up for a week or two.

Fair point! It makes trying to extract meaningful data almost impossible.

One of the reasons NZ started sending positive cases and their households to quarantine facility, they found that in the first lockdown household ended up having to completely self isolate for over a month in some cases as it went around the household.

I'm saying this to make a point around how cases keep going up even in lockdown, not suggesting that this is a viable strategy for the UK

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54897737

Coronavirus: Safety officials had 'political' pressure to approve PPE

Britain's safety watchdog felt leaned on by the government to make factually incorrect statements about PPE suits bought for NHS staff earlier in the Covid-19 pandemic, the BBC has found.

Emails reveal how the Health and Safety Executive said protective suits, bought by the government in April, had not been tested to the correct standard.

But the emails describe "political" pressure to approve them for use.

The government said all PPE is "quality assured" and only sent out if safe.

Early on in the pandemic, the NHS experienced severe shortages of personal protective equipment, known as PPE. As the country woke up to the lethal threat of Covid-19, there was a scramble to secure gloves, overalls and masks for NHS staff.

The shortage was so drastic that some hospital staff were even pictured at the time wearing bin bags.

[Enzedder]

The successful NZ strategy of dealing with Covid in a country that didn’t have Covid..... bravo.

A very good descriptive of making something happen - rather than letting it happen.

[Ted.]

The successful NZ strategy of dealing with Covid in a country that didn’t have Covid..... bravo.

A very good descriptive of making something happen - rather than letting it happen.

Yep. Someone might even wonder why we didn't have it, much.

[Ted.]

BTW, the post was more a commentary for those NZer's who persistently insisted our strategy was wrong, bad and idiotic and that we should immediately open up for business.

[Glaston]

Covid Testing:
Negative
then Positive
then negative on retests


all within 10 days

Semi Radrada

[Bimbowomxn]

Covid Testing:
Negative
then Positive
then negative on retests


all within 10 days

Semi Radrada

But let’s not comment about false results from the test procedures.......

[Ymx]

BTW, the post was more a commentary for those NZer's who persistently insisted our strategy was wrong, bad and idiotic and that we should immediately open up for business.

What’s the NZ situation/timeline on securing vaccines?

Ie when there will be sufficient deployed to open the borders again.

[Saint]

BTW, the post was more a commentary for those NZer's who persistently insisted our strategy was wrong, bad and idiotic and that we should immediately open up for business.

What’s the NZ situation/timeline on securing vaccines?

Ie when there will be sufficient deployed to open the borders again.

NZ getting 1.5 million doses of Pfizer, some point in Q1 next year. So that's 750,000 immunised. Nothing else agreed yet AFAIK, and assuming eveyrthing's 90% successful then they're going to need to get somewhere around 3.6 million people immunized. So closed borders for NZ till next Christmas then

[Bimbowomxn]

BTW, the post was more a commentary for those NZer's who persistently insisted our strategy was wrong, bad and idiotic and that we should immediately open up for business.

What’s the NZ situation/timeline on securing vaccines?

Ie when there will be sufficient deployed to open the borders again.

NZ getting 1.5 million doses of Pfizer, some point in Q1 next year. So that's 750,000 immunised. Nothing else agreed yet AFAIK, and assuming eveyrthing's 90% successful then they're going to need to get somewhere around 3.6 million people immunized. So closed borders for NZ till next Christmas then

They’ll not worry about their under 40’s. And immunity is found at 60% unless once again CV is a completely different type of virus than any other virus in existence.

[Ted.]

BTW, the post was more a commentary for those NZer's who persistently insisted our strategy was wrong, bad and idiotic and that we should immediately open up for business.

What’s the NZ situation/timeline on securing vaccines?

Ie when there will be sufficient deployed to open the borders again.

NZ getting 1.5 million doses of Pfizer, some point in Q1 next year. So that's 750,000 immunised. Nothing else agreed yet AFAIK, and assuming eveyrthing's 90% successful then they're going to need to get somewhere around 3.6 million people immunized. So closed borders for NZ till next Christmas then

IIRC, Pfizer is not the only vaccine supply agreement we have.

[Sandstorm]

NHS Nurses getting the shits because they have been warned to expect to work 7 days a week over Xmas period to dispense Covid vaccine.

[fishfoodie]

NHS Nurses getting the shits because they have been warned to expect to work 7 days a week over Xmas period to dispense Covid vaccine.

Being told ,by Politicians who will be on holidays a couple of weeks at that stage, & who plan on being on holidays when Brexit happens.

[Sandstorm]

NHS Nurses getting the shits because they have been warned to expect to work 7 days a week over Xmas period to dispense Covid vaccine.

Being told ,by Politicians who will be on holidays a couple of weeks at that stage, & who plan on being on holidays when Brexit happens.

Line up all MPs at Westminster and get the worst nurse in London to clumsily give them all their jabs.

[Saint]

What’s the NZ situation/timeline on securing vaccines?

Ie when there will be sufficient deployed to open the borders again.

NZ getting 1.5 million doses of Pfizer, some point in Q1 next year. So that's 750,000 immunised. Nothing else agreed yet AFAIK, and assuming eveyrthing's 90% successful then they're going to need to get somewhere around 3.6 million people immunized. So closed borders for NZ till next Christmas then

IIRC, Pfizer is not the only vaccine supply agreement we have.

The articale I found on the Pfizer agreement was in early October and said it was the first, with more to follow. I couldn't see any further releases on the "more to follow", but I only spent a few minutes looking. Even so, given the amount on backorder with most of the others, a purchase in mid to late October would result in a delivery mid to late Q3 next year at earliest, even for a small order. UK orders with all the major players went in mid-Summer

[sockwithaticket]

NHS Nurses getting the shits because they have been warned to expect to work 7 days a week over Xmas period to dispense Covid vaccine.

Being told ,by Politicians who will be on holidays a couple of weeks at that stage, & who plan on being on holidays when Brexit happens.

Of course many nurses have already worked far beyond their ordinary patterns throughout this crisis and must be pretty close to complete burnout.

[Longshanks]

R rate between 1 and 1.2 in UK. Will the lockdown be lifted on 2 Dec?

[Sandstorm]

NHS Nurses getting the shits because they have been warned to expect to work 7 days a week over Xmas period to dispense Covid vaccine.

Being told ,by Politicians who will be on holidays a couple of weeks at that stage, & who plan on being on holidays when Brexit happens.

Of course many nurses have already worked far beyond their ordinary patterns throughout this crisis and must be pretty close to complete burnout.

All that clapping in the Summer didn't help them? Lazy tarts.

[Raggs]

R rate between 1 and 1.2 in UK. Will the lockdown be lifted on 2 Dec?

As pointed out, at the moment there's still going to be plenty of household transmission. By 2nd of Dec, hopefully that will have burnt out.

[sockwithaticket]

Being told ,by Politicians who will be on holidays a couple of weeks at that stage, & who plan on being on holidays when Brexit happens.

Of course many nurses have already worked far beyond their ordinary patterns throughout this crisis and must be pretty close to complete burnout.

All that clapping in the Summer didn't help them? Lazy tarts.

Shocking isn't it?

[Ymx]

R rate between 1 and 1.2 in UK. Will the lockdown be lifted on 2 Dec?

I don’t think looking at the r rate now shows anything about lockdown fwiw