So, coronavirus...

[CM11]

If it’s been “lying dormant” rather than jumping from bats in Wuhan, then where has it been, if not in our bodies? Where are they suggesting it’s been lurking?

Wake up man! It's been living harmlessly in all our bodies for almost a decade until 5G!

Don't forget it's also being spread by chemtrails..

There's another one that's easier to link, sort of. In faeces, so spread all around the world by airplanes disposing their waste.

[dpedin]

Scotland Average less than one death and less than ten cases per day over the last week. For whatever reason England hasn’t Suppressed it to the same extent.

Are we really comparing two nations with less than 5 mil people and huge swathes of emptiness each vs the UK?

Well, e.g. the Northwest and northeast of England are very comparable. Significant rural areas but most of the population concentrated in one area. Also, cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh have directly comparable cities in England. So there are comparisons to be made. As I’ve said before, this is about comparing differences and likenesses, so just saying ‘wha, there’s no comparison’ is equally invalid.

Without going into the in's and out's of comparisons across the 4 UK nations it really is sad how we have become immune to the number of excess or Covid related deaths across the UK. We now 'celebrate' when the deaths fall below an average of 100 per day as they did last week. It almost seems this has become an acceptable price to pay as long as we can open the pubs and go to Ikea.Its even difficult now to find any info on the numbers of cases and deaths , doesn't even appear on front page of BBC website!

[Longshanks]

It could still all go pear shaped, but it was good to see that the confirmed infections in the UK for the day were below 500 for first time since 18th March. 352. How I hope that continues to tumble.

Sadly 16 more deaths (weekend as well, so well under true number)

[Guy Smiley]

Without going into the in's and out's of comparisons across the 4 UK nations it really is sad how we have become immune to the number of excess or Covid related deaths across the UK. We now 'celebrate' when the deaths fall below an average of 100 per day as they did last week. It almost seems this has become an acceptable price to pay as long as we can open the pubs and go to Ikea.Its even difficult now to find any info on the numbers of cases and deaths , doesn't even appear on front page of BBC website!

Good post... somehow, we all seem to be distracted by the rate of infection or death. We’re not paying a lot of attention to what this thing does to us...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... MP=soc_567

Throughout the pandemic, a notion has persevered that people who have “mild” cases of Covid-19 and do not require an ICU stay or the use of a ventilator are spared from serious health repercussions. Just last week, Mike Pence, the US vice-president, claimed it’s “a good thing” that nearly half of the new Covid-19 cases surging in 16 states are young Americans, who are at less risk of becoming severely ill than their older counterparts. This kind of rhetoric would lead you to believe that the ordeal of “mildly infected” patients ends within two weeks of becoming ill, at which point they recover and everything goes back to normal.
While that may be the case for some people who get Covid-19, emerging medical research as well as anecdotal evidence from recovery support groups suggest that many survivors of “mild” Covid-19 are not so lucky. They experience lasting side-effects, and doctors are still trying to understand the ramifications.

Some of these side effects can be fatal. According to Dr Christopher Kellner, a professor of neurosurgery at Mount Sinai hospital in New York, “mild” cases of Covid-19 in which the patient was not hospitalized for the virus have been linked to blood clotting and severe strokes in people as young as 30. In May, Kellner told Healthline that Mount Sinai had implemented a plan to give anticoagulant drugs to people with Covid-19 to prevent the strokes they were seeing in “younger patients with no or mild symptoms”.
Doctors now know that Covid-19 not only affects the lungs and blood, but kidneys, liver and brain – the last potentially resulting in chronic fatigue and depression, among other symptoms. Although the virus is not yet old enough for long-term effects on those organs to be well understood, they may manifest regardless of whether a patient ever required hospitalization, hindering their recovery process.

Another troubling phenomenon now coming into focus is that of “long-haul” Covid-19 sufferers – people whose experience of the illness has lasted months. For a Dutch report published earlier this month (an excerpt is translated here) researchers surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients with an average age of 53, who reported a number of enduring symptoms, including intense fatigue (88%) persistent shortness of breath (75%) and chest pressure (45%). Ninety-one per cent of the patients weren’t hospitalized, suggesting they suffered these side-effects despite their cases of Covid-19 qualifying as “mild”. While 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves generally healthy before having Covid-19, only 6% still did so one month or more after getting the virus.

[Ymx]

Are we really comparing two nations with less than 5 mil people and huge swathes of emptiness each vs the UK?

Well, e.g. the Northwest and northeast of England are very comparable. Significant rural areas but most of the population concentrated in one area. Also, cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh have directly comparable cities in England. So there are comparisons to be made. As I’ve said before, this is about comparing differences and likenesses, so just saying ‘wha, there’s no comparison’ is equally invalid.

Without going into the in's and out's of comparisons across the 4 UK nations it really is sad how we have become immune to the number of excess or Covid related deaths across the UK. We now 'celebrate' when the deaths fall below an average of 100 per day as they did last week. It almost seems this has become an acceptable price to pay as long as we can open the pubs and go to Ikea.Its even difficult now to find any info on the numbers of cases and deaths , doesn't even appear on front page of BBC website!

I might be wrong, but I think it’s now on parity with flu related deaths.

Looking at the ONS website a while back. The avg weekly death rate was doubled during the COVID peak. I think it’s now back to norm, though haven’t checked for a bit.

Will dig it out ...

[Ymx]

Here we go

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 52020.xlsx

Click on the weekly figures tab.

Compare the first 2 data rows. Top 1 being 2020 and second one being historical avg for the same week.

You’ll see from about 5 June, it’s back to normal in the UK

[Clogs]

Here we go

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 52020.xlsx

Click on the weekly figures tab.

Compare the first 2 data rows. Top 1 being 2020 and second one being historical avg for the same week.

You’ll see from about 5 June, it’s back to normal in the UK

There are some remarkable stats that can be pulled from that data.

One example. The total number of deaths for all people aged newborn to 35 across 25 weeks is less than the number of deaths that occurred in the age bracket 85+ for just one week.

Now perhaps I haven't explained that clearly. I did a quick tally across the 25 weeks of data for those in the age bracket <1 to 35. A significant proportion of the population. In those 25 weeks of deaths recorded there were 4,466. Or 59.5 people per day across those 25 weeks.
From same data I tallied up the deaths in those age bracket over 85. A significantly smaller proportion of the population than <1 to 35 I am sure you will agree. I only tallied up 1 week. Not 25. And there were 5,355 deaths. In 1 week. There were 134, 510 deaths recorded in the over 85 bracket over the same timeframe of 25 weeks.
This is all deaths, not just Covid.

Fark me getting old is deadly.

[Clogs]

If I were to take the same demographic to work out the Covid deaths the following pops up.

from 20 Mar as our start point (week 12 to week 25) there were 168 Covid deaths for that <1 to 35 age group over 13 weeks. 28.8 Million people in this age bracket and 168 people died from Covid. It has killed 1 in 170 000 so far.

Same start point for the over 85's and there were 20 940.

If I made it over 80 for the same timeframe there were 30 376 over the 13 weeks. How many people (number) are in this part of the demographic.3.37 Million people in this demographic. It has killed about 1 in 100 or 1% so far.

I think this may clearly show just how deadly this to the elderly and yet remarkably how dramatically different it is if you are under 35.

[Enzedder]

Fark me getting old is deadly.

I haven't heard of a single person who has survived it.

[mat the expat]

Last week, Spanish virologists announced they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the coronavirus disease was seen in China.

Spanish Flu MKII. Makes sense.

Electric Boogaloo

[Ymx]

[Ymx]

Old numbers. But remarkable at the time re care homes.

[Ymx]

Obviously, being in hospital doesn’t mean you’re young, it just means you’re not extremely old

[Ymx]

And here’s a heat map of the deaths per age group




Look away Enz.

[Ovals]

If I were to take the same demographic to work out the Covid deaths the following pops up.

from 20 Mar as our start point (week 12 to week 25) there were 168 Covid deaths for that <1 to 35 age group over 13 weeks. 28.8 Million people in this age bracket and 168 people died from Covid. It has killed 1 in 170 000 so far.

Same start point for the over 85's and there were 20 940.

If I made it over 80 for the same timeframe there were 30 376 over the 13 weeks. How many people (number) are in this part of the demographic.3.37 Million people in this demographic. It has killed about 1 in 100 or 1% so far.

I think this may clearly show just how deadly this to the elderly and yet remarkably how dramatically different it is if you are under 35.

There is some worrying evidence that, despite surviving Covid, some younger people could have a shorter life expectancy (or ongoing health issues) as a result (even if they were asymptomatic). They may well not be getting away unscathed.

[Biffer]

I’d not heard of lead time bias before, this could be why the uptick in deaths in Florida, Texas etc has taken longer.

[Raggs]

So a huge seroprevelance study done in Spain. 60k+ participants. Very low seroprevalance, and a good bit of evidence that t-cell immunity is likely responsible for less than 10% of cases (less than 10% of those who'd tested positive for covid previously didn't show antibodies).

[Enzedder]

And here’s a heat map of the deaths per age group




Look away Enz.

Bastid!!!

Actually, doubly worrying as I have a birth defect in my heart. I am a bit paranoid about this thing - still

[Longshanks]

The Spanish study supposedly disproves the "Herd Immunity" theory. That may or may not be the case, but I'm waiting for Herd immunity for morons. My theory is the quicker morons catch this disease the quicker it will go away. Sadly not everyone who catches it is a moron, but they are usually infected by one.

[Clogs]

And here’s a heat map of the deaths per age group




Look away Enz.

Bastid!!!

Actually, doubly worrying as I have a birth defect in my heart. I am a bit paranoid about this thing - still

You are 93 in the shade! You have made it this far. Besides I have met you a couple of times and I am convinced Coronavirus would be terrified of catching something from you.

[Clogs]

So a huge seroprevelance study done in Spain. 60k+ participants. Very low seroprevalance, and a good bit of evidence that t-cell immunity is likely responsible for less than 10% of cases (less than 10% of those who'd tested positive for covid previously didn't show antibodies).

Ok. Cool.













But also what does that mean in laymans terms?

[CM11]

Pray

[Raggs]

So a huge seroprevelance study done in Spain. 60k+ participants. Very low seroprevalance, and a good bit of evidence that t-cell immunity is likely responsible for less than 10% of cases (less than 10% of those who'd tested positive for covid previously didn't show antibodies).

Ok. Cool.













But also what does that mean in laymans terms?

Herd immunity through catching the disease doesn't work.

If you've been infected, you've almost certainly developed antibodies to fight off the virus, rather than rely on a white T-Cell response to destroy infected cells. The people that were hoping that in fact 90% of us had already had it, despite actual covid testing not showing that, and then despite earlier seroprevalence studies not showing that, was based on peoples T-Cells destroying the illness (which wouldn't show on a seroprevalence test). Basically, 50%+ of us have not had it. In fact outside of highly effected areas, it's likely 5% or less.

In the end, what it means is we need either very effective treatment for this, so we can let it spread naturally, but treat everyone to keep them alive. Or we need a vaccine.

[CM11]

So a huge seroprevelance study done in Spain. 60k+ participants. Very low seroprevalance, and a good bit of evidence that t-cell immunity is likely responsible for less than 10% of cases (less than 10% of those who'd tested positive for covid previously didn't show antibodies).

Ok. Cool.













But also what does that mean in laymans terms?

Herd immunity through catching the disease doesn't work.

If you've been infected, you've almost certainly developed antibodies to fight off the virus, rather than rely on a white T-Cell response to destroy infected cells. The people that were hoping that in fact 90% of us had already had it, despite actual covid testing not showing that, and then despite earlier seroprevalence studies not showing that, was based on peoples T-Cells destroying the illness (which wouldn't show on a seroprevalence test). Basically, 50%+ of us have not had it. In fact outside of highly effected areas, it's likely 5% or less.

In the end, what it means is we need either very effective treatment for this, so we can let it spread naturally, but treat everyone to keep them alive. Or we need a vaccine.

What is the evidence re. T-cells? How can they test for whether you fought it off that way or not?

Does this also disprove the natural immunity hypothesis or is that separate?

[Longshanks]

Ok. Cool.













But also what does that mean in laymans terms?

Herd immunity through catching the disease doesn't work.

If you've been infected, you've almost certainly developed antibodies to fight off the virus, rather than rely on a white T-Cell response to destroy infected cells. The people that were hoping that in fact 90% of us had already had it, despite actual covid testing not showing that, and then despite earlier seroprevalence studies not showing that, was based on peoples T-Cells destroying the illness (which wouldn't show on a seroprevalence test). Basically, 50%+ of us have not had it. In fact outside of highly effected areas, it's likely 5% or less.

In the end, what it means is we need either very effective treatment for this, so we can let it spread naturally, but treat everyone to keep them alive. Or we need a vaccine.

What is the evidence re. T-cells? How can they test for whether you fought it off that way or not?

Does this also disprove the natural immunity hypothesis or is that separate?

I'm going with the "Dark Matter" theory; something is going on, but we haven't a flipping clue what.

[Biffer]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/florid ... ug-report/

[CM11]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/florid ... ug-report/

F**kin hell!

Hope the mother goes to jail. Poor kid never had a chance in life with a parent like that.

[dpedin]

Here we go

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 52020.xlsx

Click on the weekly figures tab.

Compare the first 2 data rows. Top 1 being 2020 and second one being historical avg for the same week.

You’ll see from about 5 June, it’s back to normal in the UK

Sort of misses the point really? There have been over 65,000 excess deaths and this was greatly limited by the whole nation going into lockdown and implementing the most stringent public health response ever. The seeding of care homes with infected patients who were delayed discharges in hospitals, then to not provide the care sector with the likes of PPE etc and then not to provide them with access to ICU care probably accounts for a huge % of the deaths in the over 65s. Many other european countries managed to avoid the huge death rate in the elderly. Also there is strong emerging evidence of a whole range of other health issues i.e. vascular, arising in younger folk who contracted Covid19 and they will take many months/years to recover and will be an increased burden on the NHS. I myself was diagnosed with a sub massive pulmonary embolism and was rushed to A&E in hospital and was admitted for 3 days and am on blood thinner injections for another 3 months until next check up. No other reason for having a PE, nothing and docs reckon it was caused by covid19 and its effect on the blood. A&E Doc said he had seen 2 or 3 times then number of clots and strokes coming into A&E during the Covid19 pandemic.

Can those morons who think this is 'just like the flu' and the death rates are comparable with the bad flu seasons please wind in their uneducated necks in please and go and educate themselves about this virus.

[Slick]

If I were to take the same demographic to work out the Covid deaths the following pops up.

from 20 Mar as our start point (week 12 to week 25) there were 168 Covid deaths for that <1 to 35 age group over 13 weeks. 28.8 Million people in this age bracket and 168 people died from Covid. It has killed 1 in 170 000 so far.

Same start point for the over 85's and there were 20 940.

If I made it over 80 for the same timeframe there were 30 376 over the 13 weeks. How many people (number) are in this part of the demographic.3.37 Million people in this demographic. It has killed about 1 in 100 or 1% so far.

I think this may clearly show just how deadly this to the elderly and yet remarkably how dramatically different it is if you are under 35.

There is some worrying evidence that, despite surviving Covid, some younger people could have a shorter life expectancy (or ongoing health issues) as a result (even if they were asymptomatic). They may well not be getting away unscathed.

One of my wifes friends in Edinburgh (34yrs) has had a terrible time of it, near enough 9 weeks of being in and out of hospital. We saw her last week (across the street and a shouted conversation) and she seemed back to normal, got a message last night that she has had a relapse and her lungs are in a very bad condition.

[robmatic]

If I were to take the same demographic to work out the Covid deaths the following pops up.

from 20 Mar as our start point (week 12 to week 25) there were 168 Covid deaths for that <1 to 35 age group over 13 weeks. 28.8 Million people in this age bracket and 168 people died from Covid. It has killed 1 in 170 000 so far.

Same start point for the over 85's and there were 20 940.

If I made it over 80 for the same timeframe there were 30 376 over the 13 weeks. How many people (number) are in this part of the demographic.3.37 Million people in this demographic. It has killed about 1 in 100 or 1% so far.

I think this may clearly show just how deadly this to the elderly and yet remarkably how dramatically different it is if you are under 35.

There is some worrying evidence that, despite surviving Covid, some younger people could have a shorter life expectancy (or ongoing health issues) as a result (even if they were asymptomatic). They may well not be getting away unscathed.

One of my wifes friends in Edinburgh (34yrs) has had a terrible time of it, near enough 9 weeks of being in and out of hospital. We saw her last week (across the street and a shouted conversation) and she seemed back to normal, got a message last night that she has had a relapse and her lungs are in a very bad condition.

There is a range of non-death outcomes to covid that I am quite eager to avoid for as long as possible.

[Quade]

2nd wave has hit Australia sadly. Melbourne is in a worse state than in the 1st wave. Could easily go throughout the country from there, even with the border lockdowns. Quite shit really.

[Saint]

So, the great pub unlocking.......

My local has had to take the decision to ban under-25s from 8pm onwards. They simply refuse to follow any distancing rules, follow the 1 way system, use hand sanitizer etc.

they genuinely think that they're invulnerable

[TB63]

So, the great pub unlocking.......

My local has had to take the decision to ban under-25s from 8pm onwards. They simply refuse to follow any distancing rules, follow the 1 way system, use hand sanitizer etc.

they genuinely think that they're invulnerable

Which one? Daughter was refused entry to a few in town..

[Torquemada 1420]

A few weeks old now but should be mandatory watching.
https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-ka ... the-virus/

Ignore the journo. Listen to the heavyweight.

[CM11]

A few weeks old now but should be mandatory watching.
https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-ka ... the-virus/

Ignore the journo. Listen to the heavyweight.

In the past two weeks, the virus is showing signs of petering out
– It’s as though the virus is ‘getting tired’
– It’s happening across the world at the same time

Um.........

[robmatic]

A few weeks old now but should be mandatory watching.
https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-ka ... the-virus/

Ignore the journo. Listen to the heavyweight.

Why? Some of his points are objectively incorrect.

[Saint]

So, the great pub unlocking.......

My local has had to take the decision to ban under-25s from 8pm onwards. They simply refuse to follow any distancing rules, follow the 1 way system, use hand sanitizer etc.

they genuinely think that they're invulnerable

Which one? Daughter was refused entry to a few in town..

The Standard (what used to the Partridge as you would remember it).

The Boat House didn't open till yesterday - despite them being easily the best set up for socially distanced drinking

[Torquemada 1420]

Sort of misses the point really? There have been over 65,000 excess deaths

Of those 65k, how many were primarily or entirely attributable to COVID i.e. I'm interested in the distinction between accelerated deaths and causation deaths.

Accelerated deaths will result in a corresponding drop in rates down the line because those people can't die twice.

[Torquemada 1420]

A few weeks old now but should be mandatory watching.
https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-ka ... the-virus/

Ignore the journo. Listen to the heavyweight.

Why? Some of his points are objectively incorrect.

Should have explained: because some people found him irritating and looking for an agenda and so bailed on the piece. He's a journo and that's his job. Personally, I don't think his questioning (in this case) added anything to the discussion.

[Raggs]

A few weeks old now but should be mandatory watching.
https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-ka ... the-virus/

Ignore the journo. Listen to the heavyweight.

Why? Some of his points are objectively incorrect.

Should have explained: because some people found him irritating and looking for an agenda and so bailed on the piece. He's a journo and that's his job. Personally, I don't think his questioning (in this case) added anything to the discussion.

The professor is an oncologist. That's not a heavyweight in virology or epidemiology. Hell, that's not even someone specialising in transmissible disease. Or anything to do with outside forces damaging the body.