The Scottish Politics Thread

Where goats go to escape
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Longshanks
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:08 am
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:03 am
Dogbert wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:01 am

Who in this thread have ever suggested the 'English are evil '? -
Do you do hyperbole?
"We're better than you are"
Who said that, seeing as it's in quotes?
Did I say anyone had? I said if it was used that way. You're a bit slow this morning.
tc27
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:11 am
Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:36 am
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:19 am

But in replying to a post about a bonus to NHS staff just now, your immediate reply was about the post independence fiscal situation. Don't you see how that can be taken as an archetypal Unionist response?
How about for a change you actually address the point he is making and not just give a typical nat response
Which point? Your point the the Scottish government isn't spending the consequential or tc's point that we can't afford it?

Where did I claim that?

In fact my point was that the SG could easily make it tax free by increasing SNHS worker gross pay proportionately because it has lots of extra cash on hand due to lots of extra Barnett consequentials it has not yet decided how to spend - and it would get every penny back because it directly receives all revenue from income tax.

The fact they have deliberately decided to try and turn it into another grievance is telling.
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Northern Lights
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:11 am
Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:36 am
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:19 am

But in replying to a post about a bonus to NHS staff just now, your immediate reply was about the post independence fiscal situation. Don't you see how that can be taken as an archetypal Unionist response?
How about for a change you actually address the point he is making and not just give a typical nat response
Which point? Your point the the Scottish government isn't spending the consequential or tc's point that we can't afford it?
Either or both.

Fraser of Allander reckons there is £1bn that hasnt been spent of the £8bn that was allocated to come north to help deal with C19.

How would we ahve managed to find an extra £8bn of public spending if we were independent when we are already at enormous deficit levels, it will also require an answer with regards to currency for this as if we are to continue using sterling as is currently proposed we wont be able to "print it/quantitively ease it".
westport
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tc27 wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:22 am
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:11 am
Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:36 am

How about for a change you actually address the point he is making and not just give a typical nat response
Which point? Your point the the Scottish government isn't spending the consequential or tc's point that we can't afford it?

Where did I claim that?

In fact my point was that the SG could easily make it tax free by increasing SNHS worker gross pay proportionately because it has lots of extra cash on hand due to lots of extra Barnett consequentials it has not yet decided how to spend - and it would get every penny back because it directly receives all revenue from income tax.

The fact they have deliberately decided to try and turn it into another grievance is telling.
That was the point I was trying to make, but you put it so much better than me and I wasn't sure, hence i said "I was happy to be corrected".

This makes it look like the First Minister does not even know how the tax system worked, a basic skill for the job one would think. If she really had wanted to score points then she could have announced a £400 bonus and the ScotGov would pick up the tax by paying £500! As it is she has just come out as petty with the bleating about tax.
tc27
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Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:25 am
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:11 am
Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:36 am

How about for a change you actually address the point he is making and not just give a typical nat response
Which point? Your point the the Scottish government isn't spending the consequential or tc's point that we can't afford it?
Either or both.

Fraser of Allander reckons there is £1bn that hasnt been spent of the £8bn that was allocated to come north to help deal with C19.

How would we ahve managed to find an extra £8bn of public spending if we were independent when we are already at enormous deficit levels, it will also require an answer with regards to currency for this as if we are to continue using sterling as is currently proposed we wont be able to "print it/quantitively ease it".
This is a fair point.

Of course the only viable solution is to launch a new currency and print loads of it and hope you can devalue your own debt and hope inflation doesn't come to eat you.

However the SNP is too feart to go for a new currency because that will put off all the soft 'Indy curious' voters who have mortgages and pensioners. So they propagate the idea that they can just keep on using sterling but fail then to address the big drawbacks.

1. Very limited ability to borrow in a foreign currency - as you cant borrow from the BoE directly like the UK gov does you have to raise all your loans in Sterling on the bond markets. Imagine trying to react to crisis's like CV19 without being able to furlough workers or provide bridging loans to business - or place massive speculative orders of vaccine.

2. No effective central bank.

3. It precludes EU membership - one of the supposed big attractions of separation.

And for the avoidance of doubt - Unofficial sterlingisation is the actual policy of the SNP as indicated by Andrew Wilson in multiple papers.
Bimbowomxn
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However the SNP is too feart to go for a new currency because that will put off all the soft 'Indy curious' voters who have mortgages and pensioners. So they propagate the idea that they can just keep on using sterling but fail then to address the big drawbacks.

They’re right to be scared of a new currency, it’s not only that they’d lose the referendum vote (who wants their savings decimated) but that inward investment which is often currency hedged would all be pulled. It would be a fire sale of epic proportions.
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Northern Lights
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On the £500 bonus I was bit surprised to see the unions voicing concern over it, even they appear to see through what amounts to a political stunt.
Drew Smith, who represents GMB Scotland, said: “Sick to my stomach to see pay for care workers on less than £10 an hour and who have been put through hell this year being turned into the latest bit of constitutional game-playing. There is no shame left.”
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Paddington Bear
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This seems as transparent a political stunt as there can be really.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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clydecloggie
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Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:20 am On the £500 bonus I was bit surprised to see the unions voicing concern over it, even they appear to see through what amounts to a political stunt.
Drew Smith, who represents GMB Scotland, said: “Sick to my stomach to see pay for care workers on less than £10 an hour and who have been put through hell this year being turned into the latest bit of constitutional game-playing. There is no shame left.”
Is that former Labour MSP Drew Smith? Funny he should say something like that.
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Northern Lights
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clydecloggie wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:27 am
Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:20 am On the £500 bonus I was bit surprised to see the unions voicing concern over it, even they appear to see through what amounts to a political stunt.
Drew Smith, who represents GMB Scotland, said: “Sick to my stomach to see pay for care workers on less than £10 an hour and who have been put through hell this year being turned into the latest bit of constitutional game-playing. There is no shame left.”
Is that former Labour MSP Drew Smith? Funny he should say something like that.
It may well be, he is however the voice of the GMB one of the largest unions and carries significant political weight along with it. Is he wrong with his statement?
Jock42
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Its a political stunt, I'd rather the money went to increasing furloughs or helping those facing unemployment. I'll view it as less of a stunt if they don't freeze my wages
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Caley_Red
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:19 am
Caley_Red wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:31 am
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:16 am

So do you want to talk about financing this pledge which was what you replied to a post on?
Well you're clearly trying to conflate these things and obfuscating on it: my reference to the gutting of public finances was clearly in reference to an independent Scotland whereas the previous comment was specific to the UK fiscal transfer providing under-committed funding.
But in replying to a post about a bonus to NHS staff just now, your immediate reply was about the post independence fiscal situation. Don't you see how that can be taken as an archetypal Unionist response?
Are you actually going to adress anything directly? The point was that these poorly designed pieces of headline-grabbing welfare are going to be blitzed by the budgetary maelstrom that Sturgeon is wanting to enact. My post was about the naivety of the poster viewing all fiscal give-aways as generous contributions to the good people of Scotland from the the teat of Sturgeon.

In truth, you have no answers on the financial viability of independence and, worse than that, you nod along with anything that comes out of Sturgeon's mouth as you seem unwilling to admit that you're content to have independence despite the vast hardship it would confer on a great many people in the country. Your nationalism is neither principled nor high-minded, it's insular and foolhardy- at least admit that you're happy to see grave economic hardship and subsequent mass emigration as the ends justify the means for you.
And on the 7th day, the Lord said "Let there be Finn Russell".
Biffer
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Caley_Red wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:13 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:19 am
Caley_Red wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:31 am

Well you're clearly trying to conflate these things and obfuscating on it: my reference to the gutting of public finances was clearly in reference to an independent Scotland whereas the previous comment was specific to the UK fiscal transfer providing under-committed funding.
But in replying to a post about a bonus to NHS staff just now, your immediate reply was about the post independence fiscal situation. Don't you see how that can be taken as an archetypal Unionist response?
Are you actually going to adress anything directly? The point was that these poorly designed pieces of headline-grabbing welfare are going to be blitzed by the budgetary maelstrom that Sturgeon is wanting to enact. My post was about the naivety of the poster viewing all fiscal give-aways as generous contributions to the good people of Scotland from the the teat of Sturgeon.

In truth, you have no answers on the financial viability of independence and, worse than that, you nod along with anything that comes out of Sturgeon's mouth as you seem unwilling to admit that you're content to have independence despite the vast hardship it would confer on a great many people in the country. Your nationalism is neither principled nor high-minded, it's insular and foolhardy- at least admit that you're happy to see grave economic hardship and subsequent mass emigration as the ends justify the means for you.
No point, as if anyone tries to discuss anything complex or with any nuance, then no matter what the topic, certain people just scream CUUURRRREEENNNNNCCCYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY regardless of whether or not it's relevant.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Biffer
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Cue certain posters giving some sneering drivel about nuance and pretending they're chuckling
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Longshanks
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Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Biffer
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Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.

And if you really want my currency preference you need to tell me in what way the UK has broken up. Are we a seceding nation and a successor nation, are both Scotland and RUK new countries, how has the break up been managed? Because that has implications on distributions of assets and debts, which is something that is never acknowledged and has obvious knock on effects on the economic policy and set up of Scotland post independence.
Last edited by Biffer on Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Longshanks
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.
I think the point was being made that without being part of the UK the £500 gift would not have been possible.
It's fair enough if you'd rather not tackle the issues (Brexiteers do that all the time) but you can see why I asked.
Biffer
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Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:24 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.
I think the point was being made that without being part of the UK the £500 gift would not have been possible.
It's fair enough if you'd rather not tackle the issues (Brexiteers do that all the time) but you can see why I asked.
I can, and I’ve updated, I’ll add a bit here - what’s the international reception and reaction? How was the UK fared since Brexit and the pandemic? Is the pound actually a reputable currency anymore? How receptive is the EU to accelerated membership and on what terms?

Depending on these, I’d likely have different answers. But whatever I post, NL will just scream about it and continually insist that nothing is possible, ever.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Longshanks
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Thank you for your reply
There are many uncertainties about the future and the UK in general I agree. 10 years from now might be a better time for a referendum instead at a time when there are so many uncertainties.....
Bimbowomxn
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And if you really want my currency preference you need to tell me in what way the UK has broken up. Are we a seceding nation and a successor nation, are both Scotland and RUK new countries, how has the break up been managed? Because that has implications on distributions of assets and debts, which is something that is never acknowledged and has obvious knock on effects on the economic policy and set up of Scotland post independence.


There’s only two actual “choices” post independence regardless of how it is achieved. One must be preferable.
Biffer
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And seeing as this all went south, let me make a couple of things clear

I support the £500 bonus for healthcare. It’s not much but at least it’s some acknowledgment of the efforts over the year.
If we can afford it through not having spent the consequentials, which we obviously can given how much some people have been howling about them not being spent, then we can afford it in the current constitutional arrangement, which is all that is relevant right now.
The tax thing is a dumbass political stunt. Stupid and cheap and achieves nothing other than to make you look like you’re going for a cheap political stunt. Without it, most of the questions and press on this topic would have been why the SNP could do it but the Conservatives couldn’t.
Whether or not we could have afforded a £500 bonus if we were independent is not really a relevant question as it assumes that we would have followed a broadly similar path to the remaining UK in pandemic response. That’s incredibly unlikely imo and if you don’t know something as basic as that any comparison between now and a hypothetical independence is meaningless.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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clydecloggie
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.

And if you really want my currency preference you need to tell me in what way the UK has broken up. Are we a seceding nation and a successor nation, are both Scotland and RUK new countries, how has the break up been managed? Because that has implications on distributions of assets and debts, which is something that is never acknowledged and has obvious knock on effects on the economic policy and set up of Scotland post independence.
Following the Declaration of Drumchapel, in which the Act of Union was declared null and void as of 1 January 2022, the Bank of England was split up into the Bank of Westminster and the Caledonian Bank, a new entity acting as the central bank and lender of last resort for the newly independent country of Scotland. As agreed, the Scottish Government took on 8.9% of UK liabilities and an equal share of its assets. Through the colloquially called 'Swinney-Sunak formula', the Caledonian Bank gained the assets formerly belonging to the Bank of England, which served to underpin the launch of the new Scottish currency, the poond, on 1 March 2022 - at an exchange rate of 1£ to 1SP (roughly equal to €0.87). Due to Scotland's EU membership and the relocation of the last remaining major banks of the City of London to Edinburgh, within 12 months the Scottish Poond was valued considerably higher than GBP and became a medium-volume international trading currency. Despite the significant negative effect on, primarily agricultural, producers from the Scottish Borders who saw their wares become unaffordable to their traditional customers in the North of England, the valuation of the Scottish Poond is now generally considered to have been a clear driver of Scotland's unprecedented economic success as an independent nation in the mid-21st century.

tl;dr: my tea leaves are as good as yours.
Biffer
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tc27 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:58 pm
Biffer wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:51 pm
Longshanks wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:42 am I suppose Scottish independence is the main reason why Boris is not giving in on the fishing rights with the EU. It will damage the SNP if their policy is to give it all back to the EU.
Could be shot NG himself in the foot though, if the Scottish government plays the same fishing rights card the leavers have.

Personally, as I said previously somewhere in here, I'd now lean towards EFTA membership in the short to medium term allowing us to have side agreements with the UK on certain areas for customs and phytosanitary for example. That would lead to some border checks but it'd be an easier border to manage as its shorter, has substantially fewer crossings and the main ones for freight are well established and have space for border infrastructure
EFTA membership (on it own) is not worth a whole hill of beans - a free trade zone with a few relatively non EU European economies and a few FTA's that replicate largely what the EU has with other trade blocs (and the UK has now mostly replicated).
If you want to plug into the EU single market through it you need to sign up to its EEA treaty (not a straightforward process).

This brings you back to needing the border with non EEA rUK..so it doesn't really solve any problems.
And I meant to say to this a few days ago that I meant to include EEA as well as EFTA, error on my part. So far as I understand it that involves signing up to the single market conditions but with exemptions for fisheries and agriculture, free movement of people, goods and services but not the customs union.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Biffer
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clydecloggie wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:00 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.

And if you really want my currency preference you need to tell me in what way the UK has broken up. Are we a seceding nation and a successor nation, are both Scotland and RUK new countries, how has the break up been managed? Because that has implications on distributions of assets and debts, which is something that is never acknowledged and has obvious knock on effects on the economic policy and set up of Scotland post independence.
Following the Declaration of Drumchapel, in which the Act of Union was declared null and void as of 1 January 2022, the Bank of England was split up into the Bank of Westminster and the Caledonian Bank, a new entity acting as the central bank and lender of last resort for the newly independent country of Scotland. As agreed, the Scottish Government took on 8.9% of UK liabilities and an equal share of its assets. Through the colloquially called 'Swinney-Sunak formula', the Caledonian Bank gained the assets formerly belonging to the Bank of England, which served to underpin the launch of the new Scottish currency, the poond, on 1 March 2022 - at an exchange rate of 1£ to 1SP (roughly equal to €0.87). Due to Scotland's EU membership and the relocation of the last remaining major banks of the City of London to Edinburgh, within 12 months the Scottish Poond was valued considerably higher than GBP and became a medium-volume international trading currency. Despite the significant negative effect on, primarily agricultural, producers from the Scottish Borders who saw their wares become unaffordable to their traditional customers in the North of England, the valuation of the Scottish Poond is now generally considered to have been a clear driver of Scotland's unprecedented economic success as an independent nation in the mid-21st century.

tl;dr: my tea leaves are as good as yours.
Wouldn’t that be nice?
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Bimbowomxn
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Amazing that some people willingly believe they’ll even get a vote by 2022.
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Northern Lights
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:27 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:24 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm

Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.
I think the point was being made that without being part of the UK the £500 gift would not have been possible.
It's fair enough if you'd rather not tackle the issues (Brexiteers do that all the time) but you can see why I asked.
I can, and I’ve updated, I’ll add a bit here - what’s the international reception and reaction? How was the UK fared since Brexit and the pandemic? Is the pound actually a reputable currency anymore? How receptive is the EU to accelerated membership and on what terms?

Depending on these, I’d likely have different answers. But whatever I post, NL will just scream about it and continually insist that nothing is possible, ever.
Aye scream, that's me. Seems i am the Unionist bogeyman, fair enough, every forum seems to need one for the nats to rally against.

Just the sort of reaction that is the norm though as any serious attempt to answer these legitimate concerns exposes the whole host of problems with whichever course of actions is proposed. This of course doesnt mean that nothing is possible, ever, as the Brexit vote showed a populist vote can indeed change things and economic consequences be damned, for the ardent seperatists though they are proposing a course of action that will be a multitude worse than Brexit on economic terms there is simply no avoiding that, they can bluster all they like but this is the reality.

Oh and of course the pound is still a reputable currency, hence why the government is still able to borrow at historically low levels, it is for sure weakened since the Brexit vote but that's it.
Last edited by Northern Lights on Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tc27
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clydecloggie wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:00 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:12 pm Biffer.
I ask this in a sincere manner, and I won't give any sarcastic reply. But please can you answer the issues raised. Especially the one about the deficit and using sterling in an independent country I genuinely want to hear you POV. It is a most important issue for Scotland.
Bu this is what I mean. We started talking about a £500 bonus for nurses and all of a sudden I’ve got to explain fiscal policy four or five years from now.

And if you really want my currency preference you need to tell me in what way the UK has broken up. Are we a seceding nation and a successor nation, are both Scotland and RUK new countries, how has the break up been managed? Because that has implications on distributions of assets and debts, which is something that is never acknowledged and has obvious knock on effects on the economic policy and set up of Scotland post independence.
Following the Declaration of Drumchapel, in which the Act of Union was declared null and void as of 1 January 2022, the Bank of England was split up into the Bank of Westminster and the Caledonian Bank, a new entity acting as the central bank and lender of last resort for the newly independent country of Scotland. As agreed, the Scottish Government took on 8.9% of UK liabilities and an equal share of its assets. Through the colloquially called 'Swinney-Sunak formula', the Caledonian Bank gained the assets formerly belonging to the Bank of England, which served to underpin the launch of the new Scottish currency, the poond, on 1 March 2022 - at an exchange rate of 1£ to 1SP (roughly equal to €0.87). Due to Scotland's EU membership and the relocation of the last remaining major banks of the City of London to Edinburgh, within 12 months the Scottish Poond was valued considerably higher than GBP and became a medium-volume international trading currency. Despite the significant negative effect on, primarily agricultural, producers from the Scottish Borders who saw their wares become unaffordable to their traditional customers in the North of England, the valuation of the Scottish Poond is now generally considered to have been a clear driver of Scotland's unprecedented economic success as an independent nation in the mid-21st century.

tl;dr: my tea leaves are as good as yours.


I mean there are so many logical holes in that I don't know where to start but I will try.

1. The UK will be a continuing state so the BOE wont be 'split' it will simply remain as is.
2. A split share on assets and liabilities is somewhat realistic but its far more likely an amicable agreement on this see's Scotland make an annual payment to the rUK to cover its share (in Sterling). This is something proposed in the Growth report and in the 2014 white paper).
3. Not sure to what extent you think assets will underpin a new currency when most of them wont be liquid (so cant be used to bolster value of new currency through central bank intervention). SG will need to sequester any sterling in circulation to pay existing contracts which is a recipe for capital flight.
4 .Upon separation Scotland wont be part of the UK or the EU and will probably have basic WTO only access to both markets - no business will move there. In fact its more likely the on shore banking in Scotland with existing commitments in Sterling will move South to keep the BoE as a lender of last resort. Capital flight will also be an issue.
5. Any bank moves will already have taken place - Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt have already pretty much got what's on offer here anyway.
6. Even fasttrack EU membership is likely to take years simply because the criteria for entry are defined by treaty.
7. 60% of Scottish exports go to the rUK - a higher valued Scottish currency whilst giving you a chubby is not going to help (not that i think it would be an issue - I imagine aggressive short positions would be taken particularly if a peg was attempted).
8. Considering Scotland's deficit in normal times is c10% then its unlikely the amount of quantative easing needed to meet this would not result in a currency that would rise in value against others.


And finally this scenario would require a complete volte face on currency and is not what was laid out either in 2014 or in the more recent growth report - both advocate trying to use sterling.

As for you assertion that your guess is as good as mine - the Scottish Affairs Committee looked at this in depth (interviewing a range of experts). You can read it here:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... /49906.htm
Last edited by tc27 on Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tc27
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Northern Lights wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:38 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:27 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:24 pm

I think the point was being made that without being part of the UK the £500 gift would not have been possible.
It's fair enough if you'd rather not tackle the issues (Brexiteers do that all the time) but you can see why I asked.
I can, and I’ve updated, I’ll add a bit here - what’s the international reception and reaction? How was the UK fared since Brexit and the pandemic? Is the pound actually a reputable currency anymore? How receptive is the EU to accelerated membership and on what terms?

Depending on these, I’d likely have different answers. But whatever I post, NL will just scream about it and continually insist that nothing is possible, ever.
Aye scream, that's me. Seems i am the Unionist bogeyman, fair enough, every forum seems to need one for the nats to rally against.

Just the sort of reaction that is the norm though as any serious attempt to answer these legitimate concerns exposes the whole host of problems with whichever course of actions is proposed. This of course doesnt mean that nothing is possible, ever, as the Brexit vote showed a populist vote can indeed change things and economic consequences be damned, for the ardent seperatists though they are proposing a course of action that will be a multitude worse than Brexit on economic terms there is simply no avoiding that, they can bluster all they like but this is the reality.

Oh and of course the pound is still a reputable currency, hence why the government is still able to borrow at historically low levels, it is for sure weakened since the Brexit vote but that's it.
Indeed on some gilt issues the UK is being effectively paid to borrow - the stability and credibility of the BoE has probably being this countries biggest asset in this crisis. If 'Yes' had won in 2014 right now President Salmond would be dealing with a full on currency crisis as his government desperately tried to borrow in sterling.


PS: Back to the '£500 thankyou. Another suggestion that spending the cash that might be better than trying to bait the UK government:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/189 ... nt-blamed/
Biffer
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On a completely different subject I’m pissed off that there was no mention of potential changes for Edinburgh in today’s briefings on levels. Edinburgh hits level one on four of the five measures and level two in the other measure. Still at level three. No mention of it, no explanation, nothing.

If you’re going to have a system you have to show faith in it. Or people will just ignore it.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Northern Lights
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Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:08 pm On a completely different subject I’m pissed off that there was no mention of potential changes for Edinburgh in today’s briefings on levels. Edinburgh hits level one on four of the five measures and level two in the other measure. Still at level three. No mention of it, no explanation, nothing.

If you’re going to have a system you have to show faith in it. Or people will just ignore it.
i'm more relieved that she didnt pull the trigger up here, actually shocked is a better description.

We could well be by this time next week though, even though i actually have an inside track on what is going on here and the numbers have levelled off and are not rising at an increasing rate.

The worry was ARI's ICU was filling up, 6 patients in there the last i looked so i can oinly assume this is COVID ICU they are referring to as it's an enormous hospital and would be able to handle way more than that in normal times.
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Northern Lights
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Mr Massie, a thread favourite columnist, well one of my mine anyway as he is one of the few that actually gets to the nub of the issue with the SNP

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scot ... -57xz8v9lz
The arrogant SNP is turning into everything it despises
Nicola Sturgeon regularly accuses Boris Johnson of undermining the Scottish parliament, but she treats it with contempt too when it suits her
Alex Massie
Monday November 30 2020, 5.00pm, The Times
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Iregret to inform you that the government has been at it again. After a series of parliamentary setbacks — defeats, to you and me — senior ministers are once more broadcasting their contempt for parliament by refusing to follow the instructions repeatedly given to them by the legislature.

At the weekend, one leading member of the government told Sky News: “I have said to parliament that we will consider the fact that parliament has voted in that way.” The government has been told what to do but the minister insists that “consideration is ongoing at the moment” over “what approach we should take” in response “to the votes that parliament” has made.

But this was not Jacob Rees-Mogg defying the will of the House of Commons, and neither was it Boris Johnson demonstrating his impatience with traditional standards of parliamentary scrutiny. It was John Swinney trying to justify the unjustifiable.

The Scottish parliament has twice demanded that the Scottish government release the legal advice it was given when contesting the judicial review brought by Alex Salmond in connection with the government’s investigation of complaints against Mr Salmond, and the Scottish government has twice refused to comply.

Well might we imagine how the SNP would react if it was the British government ignoring parliament’s clearly-expressed will in this fashion. There would be much talk of that government’s anti-democratic instincts and much umbrage would have been taken at the demise of parliamentary accountability. Nicola Sturgeon would argue that it made independence more necessary than ever and Ian Blackford would have spluttered his way to an aneurysm.

Perhaps unfashionably, I think the Scottish government should be held to the same standard it applies to Mr Johnson’s ministry. It bears repeating that the SNP frequently insists that the British government release the legal advice upon which it bases its decisions. Clearly, it would be absurd to suppose that standards applied at Westminster might also apply at Holyrood. One rule for them; quite another for us.

So I suppose it is just as well that Mr Swinney is almost universally liked, because otherwise we might have to confront the possibility that his appearance on Sky News at the weekend was an unconscionable display of overbearing arrogance, of the sort typical of a party that has been in power for too long, and become so accustomed to the privileges of office it now considers them its birthright. Because what other interpretation is available?

There is much talk these days about the importance of respecting devolution but the party disrespecting it in this instance is the SNP. If the executive is permitted to ignore the legislature, what is the point of the legislature? “L’etat, c’est nous” appears to be the SNP’s position now. The content of this legal advice must be embarrassing, but can it really be so awkward as to justify all this secrecy?

Mr Swinney is not the only offender. His boss and party leader is at it too. Appearing on Andrew Marr’s BBC programme on Sunday, Ms Sturgeon repeatedly suggested that her critics should pipe down and contemplate the opinion polls. If, she intimated, she’s doing such a poor job, why is she the most popular girl in school?

The first minister insisted that the SNP’s unassailable position in the polls was proof that her government is performing splendidly. You need not be a student of logic to appreciate the second part of this bears no relation to the former. It is certainly no kind of consequence and only a party intoxicated by its own reflection could think it is. At best, it means the SNP is failing less badly than everyone else. That’s enough to win well, but not enough to govern well.

But it has been apparent for some time that the SNP has completed its transformation into the Scottish Labour party it supplanted as Scotland’s natural party of government. Everything the SNP once criticised Labour for now applies to the nationalists themselves. There is the same arrogance, the same contempt for process, the same sneering inability to appreciate others might have a respectable difference of opinion, the same suggestion that election results are themselves proof of virtue.

This is how you end up with the named person farrago, with a sham consultation into gender recognition reforms (fake because the first minister has already advertised its conclusions), and a hate crime bill that has to be gutted before MSPs have even had the chance to vote on it. Each of these are important issues and in each of them the SNP has put forward thoroughly inadequate proposals and then traduced the intentions of those in opposition trying to improve them.

Yesterday the first minister told her party’s conference that “We serve the people — they do not serve us”, and it would be nice to think this true. She accused the prime minister of trying to “undermine the Scottish parliament” and turn “democracy on its head”. Fair enough. But what, then, are we to make of a government that takes a more straightforward approach and simply ignores the explicitly expressed views of the Scottish parliament?

Because this week, in the matter of Nicola Sturgeon contra mundum, it is her ministry, not Mr Johnson’s, that is defying and undermining the Scottish parliament. Ms Sturgeon once asked to be judged on her record but it is increasingly obvious that only a politician confident she will not be held to that exacting standard would ask for it to be applied. That’s her good fortune, but it bodes ill for the country.
The bolded bit made me chuckle in these darkened times
Slick
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It’s just a fact that intelligent, free thinking people that commit to independence have to suspend their beliefs and not consider the financial or currency implications.

There is simply no other way around it
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
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Longshanks
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Slick wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:22 pm It’s just a fact that intelligent, free thinking people that commit to independence have to suspend their beliefs and not consider the financial or currency implications.

There is simply no other way around it
Apart from the currency, its what Brexiteers do.
Great summary BTW.
Bimbowomxn
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Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:29 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:22 pm It’s just a fact that intelligent, free thinking people that commit to independence have to suspend their beliefs and not consider the financial or currency implications.

There is simply no other way around it
Apart from the currency, its what Brexiteers do.
Great summary BTW.

There’s a vast difference in scale. Vast.
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Longshanks
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Bimbowomxn wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:25 pm
Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:29 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:22 pm It’s just a fact that intelligent, free thinking people that commit to independence have to suspend their beliefs and not consider the financial or currency implications.

There is simply no other way around it
Apart from the currency, its what Brexiteers do.
Great summary BTW.

There’s a vast difference in scale. Vast.
You are correct
But point still stands
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Longshanks
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I suppose the point with Brexiteers Bimbo, is that the claim was that the UK would be better off outside the EU. That part is clearly in the land of the fairies like the SNP
Bimbowomxn
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Longshanks wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:37 pm I suppose the point with Brexiteers Bimbo, is that the claim was that the UK would be better off outside the EU. That part is clearly in the land of the fairies like the SNP


Even if they can’t , the scale of difference cannot be exaggerated, worse case Brexit was falls of less than 1% GDP per year over 15 years (obvs blown away by covid), Scottish currency issues dwarf this.
Biffer
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Also, the SNP may have been politicking, but at least they didn’t spend three days talking about scotch fucking eggs.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Caley_Red
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Slick wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:22 pm It’s just a fact that intelligent, free thinking people that commit to independence have to suspend their beliefs and not consider the financial or currency implications.

There is simply no other way around it
I've always maintained that you cannot be against Brexit for economic reasons and in favour of independence.
And on the 7th day, the Lord said "Let there be Finn Russell".
Slick
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Funnily enough I’ve just heard a report tonight of negotiations earlier this week between an overseas company looking at basing its European operations in Scotland and the Scottish Government.

They were apparently stunned at the lack of professionalism from the SG side and their inability to answer basic questions. It got to the stage where the FM turned up at the meeting to try and rescue it but couldn’t give any assurances on basic issues like tax, government support or post independence scenarios. They have gone home
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
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