The Brexit Thread

[Longshanks]

If this does end in no deal, I still think it would have been better all round if the EU had thrown David Cameron a decent sized bone on FOM, but I'm not looking to argue on that point.
50% +1 for a referendum is also bonkers with many voters not having a Scooby what leaving entails (or most other serious matters)
Still could be a deal, but not looking good at all.

[sturginho]

Talks were only ever going to end in failure, it's what the brexshitters have wanted all along

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55224096

Boris desperate now, probably just wants the EU to concede on something that he can then claim as massive victory while having quietly capitulated on every other our demands.

I guess there's only so far you can take this bluff..

[Insane_Homer]

meanwhile back in 1970.

[fishfoodie]

meanwhile back in 1970.

All it needs is:

DESTROY the Union


and it's the Tory Manifesto

[Hal Jordan]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55224096

Boris desperate now, probably just wants the EU to concede on something that he can then claim as massive victory while having quietly capitulated on every other our demands.

I guess there's only so far you can take this bluff..

I wish people would actually watch that scene and work out who the idiots are, because it isn't the man threatening to shoot himself.

[Insane_Homer]

I wish people would actually watch that scene and work out who the idiots are, because it isn't the man threatening to shoot himself.

Well quite, except in our case, our idiots think the bluff is fooling the intended audience.

[Yeeb]

Talks were only ever going to end in failure, it's what the brexshitters have wanted all along

You could equally argue that is what the Eu wanted all along too.

Failure to reach a deal after years of talks, kind of proves to me that the Eu and UK are just fundamentally incompatible and best all round if we are not part of it.

[Yeeb]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55224096

Boris desperate now, probably just wants the EU to concede on something that he can then claim as massive victory while having quietly capitulated on every other our demands.

I guess there's only so far you can take this bluff..

What exactly has been capitulated on ? Or you think the fish will be sacrificed ?
That’s a genuine question as it’s been hard to follow everything in the press and I’m not the most avid of followers. Personally I didn’t see what was wrong about the ten years thing for fishing rights and would have signed them away to get a nontariffs grade based deal. Uk threw away its fish when it joined the eec, seems poetic justice that it gets used as a sweetener to remove ourselves.

[Insane_Homer]

What exactly has been capitulated on ? Or you think the fish will be sacrificed ?
That’s a genuine question as it’s been hard to follow everything in the press and I’m not the most avid of followers. Personally I didn’t see what was wrong about the ten years thing for fishing rights and would have signed them away to get a nontariffs grade based deal. Uk threw away its fish when it joined the eec, seems poetic justice that it gets used as a sweetener to remove ourselves.

FISH!!!! a red herring if there ever was one.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/1 ... hael-gove/

Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List

Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests

More than half (13) of the top 25 quota holders have directors, shareholders, or vessel partners who were convicted of offences in Scotland’s £63m “black fish” scam

Around 29% of UK fishing quota is directly controlled by Rich List families.

In England, the UK’s second largest fishing nation, three Rich List families control around 30% of the quota.

A further 49% is ultimately held by Dutch, Spanish and Icelandic interests who have bought up English vessels and quota

[Yeeb]

Cool, will read it when I have the time. Who would have thought that a few rich Scottish families would lever their influence so much ??!!

It is quite funny then how such a small part of UK plc in terms of gdp and workforce, ends up being so inportnsnt a negotiation tool. Am I right then in assuming that there is agreement then on:
Existing Eu/ uk nationals rights to continue living and working in the uk / Eu ? And all the healthcare and pensions etc that entails ?
Financial pass-porting for financial services
Adherence to food standards
Europol intelligence sharing to stop baddies
To name but a few issues

[dpedin]

Fish is just a diversion to keep joe public and media busy whilst the real issues are slipped under the radar. Its just a headline to stir up anti EU feelings, and ditto for the french and UK animosity. It wets the pants of the Brexit Ultras to talk about 'our seas' and 'our fish', it enthuses the whole 'Englishmans home is their castle' shite, but it isn't anything thing other than a minor economic issue and something to whip up the jingoism and xenophobia of the Brexit Ultras and their voters. As previous posters have noted the UK fishing industry is dominated by dodgy big business and families and a significant chunk of the English quota was sold off at a profit to the dirty Johnny Foreigners years ago. Macron is also finding fishing a useful distraction and will use it to achieve his own aims. However it shouldn't be forgotten that we export 75% of the fish we catch in the UK and we import roughly the same amount of what we eat. No deal could mean we end up with lots of fish but no market for much of them or at the very least a market without a seamless, easy and tariff free access. Fish also gives the Blonde Bumblecunt something to wave about at his next Tory party conference, who can forget the waving of the kippers scene! We are being played here.

[Longshanks]

Fish is just a diversion to keep joe public and media busy whilst the real issues are slipped under the radar.

I'm not going to say you're wrong. But it is funny when individuals claim to know what's really going on while the rest of us fools are sucked in.

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... shows.html

No Deal Brexit could lead to medicine supply shortage, inflation and public disorder, No10's secret 34-page 'worst-case scenario' dossier shows as Boris threatens to walk away

A 34-page 'reasonable worst-case scenario' dossier sets out what No10 believes could happen in the event that Britain crashes out of the EU in the New Year without a trade deal in place.

It says 'flow rates of medicines and medical products could initially reduce to 60-80% over three months which, if unmitigated, would impact on the supply of medicines and medical products across the UK'.

The jittery document also warns of 'protests and counter-protests', a clash between British and EU fishing trawlers, 'price rises in food and fuel' caused by 'reduced [food] supply availability', and an increased risk of terrorism.

A Government source confirmed its authenticity, telling Robert Peston of ITV the 'official sensitive' document, which was written in September, still underpins contingency planning.

WIN WIN!

[Northern Lights]

What exactly has been capitulated on ? Or you think the fish will be sacrificed ?
That’s a genuine question as it’s been hard to follow everything in the press and I’m not the most avid of followers. Personally I didn’t see what was wrong about the ten years thing for fishing rights and would have signed them away to get a nontariffs grade based deal. Uk threw away its fish when it joined the eec, seems poetic justice that it gets used as a sweetener to remove ourselves.

FISH!!!! a red herring if there ever was one.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/1 ... hael-gove/

Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List

Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests

More than half (13) of the top 25 quota holders have directors, shareholders, or vessel partners who were convicted of offences in Scotland’s £63m “black fish” scam

Around 29% of UK fishing quota is directly controlled by Rich List families.

In England, the UK’s second largest fishing nation, three Rich List families control around 30% of the quota.

A further 49% is ultimately held by Dutch, Spanish and Icelandic interests who have bought up English vessels and quota

And as i said before how does this differ from other major fishing nations? Oh that's right you never answered because you dont know and are just flailing around as per usual.

[Northern Lights]

Fish is just a diversion to keep joe public and media busy whilst the real issues are slipped under the radar. Its just a headline to stir up anti EU feelings, and ditto for the french and UK animosity. It wets the pants of the Brexit Ultras to talk about 'our seas' and 'our fish', it enthuses the whole 'Englishmans home is their castle' shite, but it isn't anything thing other than a minor economic issue and something to whip up the jingoism and xenophobia of the Brexit Ultras and their voters. As previous posters have noted the UK fishing industry is dominated by dodgy big business and families and a significant chunk of the English quota was sold off at a profit to the dirty Johnny Foreigners years ago. Macron is also finding fishing a useful distraction and will use it to achieve his own aims. However it shouldn't be forgotten that we export 75% of the fish we catch in the UK and we import roughly the same amount of what we eat. No deal could mean we end up with lots of fish but no market for much of them or at the very least a market without a seamless, easy and tariff free access. Fish also gives the Blonde Bumblecunt something to wave about at his next Tory party conference, who can forget the waving of the kippers scene! We are being played here.

Some of what you say is bang on but wrong in other areas. The fish will get sold, as a protein source it is in high demand globally and if the EU put up too much resistence it will find the fish being exported to other markets, there is no shortage of demand globally with an increasing and increasingly wealthy world population. In good old capitalist tradition he who pays the most will get the fish. So i wouldnt be focusing too much on the trade flows, that is a red herring if ever there was one, we will still be able to import cod and haddock which is what matters in terms of specie provided we are able to and want to pay to secure it.

It's daft that this is an issue given its size in both the UK and the EU but it has only become totemic because of it being an 11th hour demand on our entry which we capitulated on, so no surprise it's become such an issue on our exit.

[Sandstorm]

No Deal Brexit could lead to medicine supply shortage

called me an idiot when I suggested this 12 months ago.

[Yeeb]

No Deal Brexit could lead to medicine supply shortage

called me an idiot when I suggested this 12 months ago.

It could lead to a bunch of things, but broadly there won’t be any shortage short term on important meds, here is why :(I’m in medical supply chain)
Each supplier, will have built up their own stock levels for year end brexit uncertainty , usually following an 80:20 rule where 80% of your revenue comes from your 20 largest products or similar.
6 weeks to 2 months worth is a rule of thumb as to this stock build.
Worth pointing out the much of ireland, is supplied by uk warehouses for meds

Below the suppliers, there are the medical wholesalers / distributors , who have done a similar stockbuild across all their suppliers
Below that are the hospital trusts, pharmacies , clinics etc who may have done their own build (less certain because at this level many are still run with poor financial and logistical considerations)

Warehouses in Uk are bulging, lockdown has made consumption fall, and spare capacity for storage is constrained - where the delays could occur is on the smaller less important skus because there simply isn’t any storage or transportational capacity spare right now

Anything urgent and high value would shift to air Freight at additional cost, amazingly there are lots of medical suppliers around the world from outside of the Eu who will see brexit as minor cost increase. Some of these manufacturers are actually in the Uk already.

Brexit is also being used as a reason for double digit cost price increases, even where the product is made in the Eu and being sold to another part of the Eu - good times !

[Longshanks]

No Deal Brexit could lead to medicine supply shortage

called me an idiot when I suggested this 12 months ago.

TBF
This reasonable worst case scenario was written in September to prepare for a no deal. Medicine is one area where the UK needs to stockpile, and that has been taking place. I of course, don't know the fine details.

[Sandstorm]

No Deal Brexit could lead to medicine supply shortage

called me an idiot when I suggested this 12 months ago.

It could lead to a bunch of things, but broadly there won’t be any shortage short term on important meds, here is why :(I’m in medical supply chain)
Each supplier, will have built up their own stock levels for year end brexit uncertainty , usually following an 80:20 rule where 80% of your revenue comes from your 20 largest products or similar.
6 weeks to 2 months worth is a rule of thumb as to this stock build.
Worth pointing out the much of ireland, is supplied by uk warehouses for meds

Below the suppliers, there are the medical wholesalers / distributors , who have done a similar stockbuild across all their suppliers
Below that are the hospital trusts, pharmacies , clinics etc who may have done their own build (less certain because at this level many are still run with poor financial and logistical considerations)

Warehouses in Uk are bulging, lockdown has made consumption fall, and spare capacity for storage is constrained - where the delays could occur is on the smaller less important skus because there simply isn’t any storage or transportational capacity spare right now

Anything urgent and high value would shift to air Freight at additional cost, amazingly there are lots of medical suppliers around the world from outside of the Eu who will see brexit as minor cost increase. Some of these manufacturers are actually in the Uk already.

Brexit is also being used as a reason for double digit cost price increases, even where the product is made in the Eu and being sold to another part of the Eu - good times !

Interesting, thanks Yeeb. I read that no insulin is manufactured in the UK and is all imported from EU, however UK suppliers are keeping at least 16 weeks in stock.

[dpedin]

Fish is just a diversion to keep joe public and media busy whilst the real issues are slipped under the radar.

I'm not going to say you're wrong. But it is funny when individuals claim to know what's really going on while the rest of us fools are sucked in.

That was not my intention ... its all about the newspaper headlines and the grabbing the top stories on the news programmes. I'm not saying many dont know what is going on but its all about managing the media, they all love a big story on fish with pictures of nice fishing boats and gnarly fishermen talking in a barely understandable regional accent. It is also all about getting the messages to their base voters and striking fear by suggesting the froggies will be invading our seas. Couple this with 1,000's of immigrants flooding over the channel and Farage patrolling the beaches to protect us and we have an ideal scenario for the Brexit Ultras. Their joe public base believes we are under threat and believes what it reads in the Sun.

[Yeeb]

called me an idiot when I suggested this 12 months ago.

It could lead to a bunch of things, but broadly there won’t be any shortage short term on important meds, here is why :(I’m in medical supply chain)
Each supplier, will have built up their own stock levels for year end brexit uncertainty , usually following an 80:20 rule where 80% of your revenue comes from your 20 largest products or similar.
6 weeks to 2 months worth is a rule of thumb as to this stock build.
Worth pointing out the much of ireland, is supplied by uk warehouses for meds

Below the suppliers, there are the medical wholesalers / distributors , who have done a similar stockbuild across all their suppliers
Below that are the hospital trusts, pharmacies , clinics etc who may have done their own build (less certain because at this level many are still run with poor financial and logistical considerations)

Warehouses in Uk are bulging, lockdown has made consumption fall, and spare capacity for storage is constrained - where the delays could occur is on the smaller less important skus because there simply isn’t any storage or transportational capacity spare right now

Anything urgent and high value would shift to air Freight at additional cost, amazingly there are lots of medical suppliers around the world from outside of the Eu who will see brexit as minor cost increase. Some of these manufacturers are actually in the Uk already.

Brexit is also being used as a reason for double digit cost price increases, even where the product is made in the Eu and being sold to another part of the Eu - good times !

Interesting, thanks Yeeb. I read that no insulin is manufactured in the UK and is all imported from EU, however UK suppliers are keeping at least 16 weeks in stock.

Insulin is not something I cover so I don’t know about it specifically , but there is no way suppliers won’t have looked at:
A. Setting up a production line in the UK
B. Will have lined up other suppliers from outside of the Eu, which basically means USA & China

It is blind luck as far as UK is concerned that covid occurred this year, plenty of countries looking at setting up national supply chains on strategic products.

The pharma products we make have a min 12 month shelf life, food with much shorter lifespan is far more susceptible to any brexit delays (E.g. fruit juices made in Holland, such as my previous company, are made with circa 35 days span and shops usually only accept down to 21 days BBE, so that leaves a two week window to get it from Der Zerderburgen to Slough Tesco’s.

Covid has shown the myth of the world being a truly global trade with freely moving supply chains - remember how countries such as Germany temp prevented export of PPE to Italy. Any largish country should be looking at setting up some form of national backup facility and storage for certain items.

[westport]

Michael Gove has this afternoon announced that agreement in principle has been reached between the co-chairs of the EU-UK Joint Committee on implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement – himself and Maroš Šefčovič.

“An agreement in principle has been found in the following areas, amongst others: Border Control Posts/Entry Points specifically for checks on animals, plants and derived products, export declarations, the supply of medicines, the supply of chilled meats, and other food products to supermarkets, and a clarification on the application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol.”

“In view of these mutually agreed solutions, the UK will withdraw clauses 44, 45 and 47 of the UK Internal Market Bill, and not introduce any similar provisions in the Taxation Bill.”

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55229681

Brexit: UK and EU reach deal on Northern Ireland border checks


The UK and EU have reached agreement on how rules in the Brexit divorce deal will be implemented, particularly in relation to Northern Ireland.

The government says an agreement in principle has been found for issues including border control posts and the supply of medicines.

The government says it will now withdraw controversial clauses in the Internal Market Bill.

However negotiations to reach a post-Brexit trade deal are still ongoing.

The details of the agreement have not been published but are expected to be rubber stamped in the coming days.

[Longshanks]

Tony Connelly RTE

German Europe Minister Michael Roth: efforts to divide the EU on Brexit have failed and will continue to fail. France has not announced a veto, it has simply said all member states will have to agree to a deal. That is nothing new

Definitely a change from the insistence that France would veto the deal.

[JM2K6]

Eh, no-one was insisting France would veto it.

[Longshanks]

Eh, no-one was insisting France would veto it.

I should have said veto a "bad" deal - sorry.
It is a change of tone that's for sure.
Merkel might have had words?

[Longshanks]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55229681

Brexit: UK and EU reach deal on Northern Ireland border checks


The UK and EU have reached agreement on how rules in the Brexit divorce deal will be implemented, particularly in relation to Northern Ireland.

The government says an agreement in principle has been found for issues including border control posts and the supply of medicines.

The government says it will now withdraw controversial clauses in the Internal Market Bill.

However negotiations to reach a post-Brexit trade deal are still ongoing.

The details of the agreement have not been published but are expected to be rubber stamped in the coming days.

Opens the way to a deal with the US.
Still won't be better than remaining mind.

[SaintK]

Don't get too excited folks!

European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday he believed a ‘no-deal’ split in ties with Britain at the end of the year is now more likely than agreement on a trade pact, sources in the bloc said.
A diplomat and an official in Brussels, speaking under condition of anonymity, said Barnier made the remark at a meeting with the 27 national European affairs ministers and added that it was time for the bloc to update its no-deal contingency plans.

[Insane_Homer]

DOH!

[Longshanks]

Waiting to see the details of this deal on NI protocol. But I have to be honest, it doesn't sound that different to Boris' unicorn arrangement on the Irish border. But I'll wait and see.

[Openside]

If this does end in no deal, I still think it would have been better all round if the EU had thrown David Cameron a decent sized bone on FOM, but I'm not looking to argue on that point.
50% +1 for a referendum is also bonkers with many voters not having a Scooby what leaving entails (or most other serious matters)
Still could be a deal, but not looking good at all.

if they had even agreed to a few of the reforms most people seem to think the EU needs we wouldn't even be in this position.

[fishfoodie]

Waiting to see the details of this deal on NI protocol. But I have to be honest, it doesn't sound that different to Boris' unicorn arrangement on the Irish border. But I'll wait and see.

Tony Connelly as usual has the best sources.



He also says that Barnier gave another briefing today; & if anything was even more negative about the possibility of a deal.

[Longshanks]

Waiting to see the details of this deal on NI protocol. But I have to be honest, it doesn't sound that different to Boris' unicorn arrangement on the Irish border. But I'll wait and see.

Tony Connelly as usual has the best sources.



He also says that Barnier gave another briefing today; & if anything was even more negative about the possibility of a deal.

It still doesn't look a perfect solution, but there never was one. However, I'm glad that the Irish issues are solved and we can all be friends again.
Looking unlikely for an EU deal, but not over till fat lady and all that.

[Sandstorm]

Is there any difference between No Deal and Shit Deal this week?

[Longshanks]

Is there any difference between No Deal and Shit Deal this week?

Estimate -2% gdp next year, over 10 years -0.8%

[Insane_Homer]

JRM! DOH!

[Insane_Homer]

Is there any difference between No Deal and Shit Deal this week?

All depends on the size of the capitulation from the UK Government.

They're now fucked if they do and fucked if they don't.

No deal will result in mayhem and they'll get voted from government and with a capitulation deal the Tories will eat themselves alive from within when the ERG, hardliners, UKIP, national fronters rebel. It might we'll be that a no deal leads to be better long term outcome for the UK, but with great deal of short term pain to get there.

[Longshanks]

The strangest part of that deal on the NI protocol is that 98% of goods that go between GB and NI will be exempt from tariffs because of a trusted trader arrangement. I'm no Brexiteer (far from it), but I remember when that was suggested by the UK side to use trusted trader it was laughed at as something that did not exist, and would never exist. It was unicorns! Every single shipment would need to checked. So why have the EU accepted this now when they wouldn't in the past? It would have saved a lot of bad feeling.

[I like neeps]

JRM! DOH!

To be fair the INEOS Chairman did do that. The concern isn't so much Brexit on that one it is Germany just have better infrastructure and talent to do that. It's a long term failing of the UK's education and investment.

However, pinning your hopes on nondom billionaires who clearly are in it purely for themselves such as Dyson and Ratcliffe is just foolish.