So, coronavirus...

[robmatic]

The critiques of lockdown remain poor. It's not a policy anyone wants or enjoyed but you have to start to show actual alternate ideas at some point.

People have gone quite a long way with some vague handwaving about sheltering the vulnerable.

[Biffer]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/322a ... 08b25a356d

It's quite amazing you get still get articles like this. Whilst you can assign an arbitrarily created and obviously flawed value to life and quality of life etc if you wanted to.
It's not possible in the time of a highly infectious respiratory virus. Suggesting using economics to decide on policy (a) assumes people act as rational economic actors which they don't! Especially in times of health crises which would reduce their economic production and so your unitary value is different in covid and non covid times and (b) you can't have fully operational hospitals with widespread covid incidents. Unless the strategy is barely admit any covid patients and make everyone else test negative before entering a hospital which isn't possible.

The critiques of lockdown remain poor. It's not a policy anyone wants or enjoyed but you have to start to show actual alternate ideas at some point.

Much as it’s good to start seeing some of these things discussed, I don’t think he’s fully grasped what a QALY is there, or how it compares to the value of a life used in the more general economic calculations. For example in his case of the two drugs that extend life by two years or six months, the Q part of QALY comes in - if the drug that extends your life for two years has you spending those two years in a hospital on oxygen, and the one that extends your life just six months means you can live those six months as normal before dropping suddenly, then the second one will score more highly.

[Jock42]

Moderna vaccine now approved.

[Saint]

Moderna vaccine now approved.

First delivery is a way off still for UK, but gives us decent protection against production challenges further down the road.

Initial tests of Pfizer indicate it provides immunity against both the UK and SA mutations, but more work to be done to confirm with any certainty

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Moderna vaccine now approved.

First delivery is a way off still for UK, but gives us decent protection against production challenges further down the road.

Initial tests of Pfizer indicate it provides immunity against both the UK and SA mutations, but more work to be done to confirm with any certainty

I believe the UK ordered Moderna a fair while after placing orders for Pfizer & AZ.

[Saint]

Moderna vaccine now approved.

First delivery is a way off still for UK, but gives us decent protection against production challenges further down the road.

Initial tests of Pfizer indicate it provides immunity against both the UK and SA mutations, but more work to be done to confirm with any certainty

I believe the UK ordered Moderna a fair while after placing orders for Pfizer & AZ.

Yeah - we have 5 million order, increased now to 7 million, but first delivery for us is April. Moderna is really the major one for the EU until Sanofi gets anywhere near ready. I;m not really going to sriticse the government for failing to order more of anything seeing how we've ordered a lot and got oursleves into a fairly strong position in terms of a broad range of supply

Johnson & Johnson is the next major one for the UK - 30 million with an option for a further 22 million, phase 3 expected to conclude by the end of the month.

[Raggs]

First delivery is a way off still for UK, but gives us decent protection against production challenges further down the road.

Initial tests of Pfizer indicate it provides immunity against both the UK and SA mutations, but more work to be done to confirm with any certainty

I believe the UK ordered Moderna a fair while after placing orders for Pfizer & AZ.

Yeah - we have 5 million order, increased now to 7 million, but first delivery for us is April. Moderna is really the major one for the EU until Sanofi gets anywhere near ready. I;m not really going to sriticse the government for failing to order more of anything seeing how we've ordered a lot and got oursleves into a fairly strong position in terms of a broad range of supply

Johnson & Johnson is the next major one for the UK - 30 million with an option for a further 22 million, phase 3 expected to conclude by the end of the month.

Morderna is also expensive compared to the others.

[Insane_Homer]

Last 7 days 5,665 (+1746, +44.6%)

[tc27]

These figures are only going to get worse - the R rate is estimated between 1 and 1.4 and its going to be two weeks before we see any effect of lockdown and the first vaccinations.

[JM2K6]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

[Denny Crane]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

Speaking of numbers, excuse my ignorance but what do you guys make of this?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 7/fulltext

[Raggs]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

We've seen the effect in the cases already, but the deaths... not yet. Scary as anything.

[Slick]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

Do you mean on deaths or infections as well? Genuine question, I'm getting a bit confused by it all - I am presuming most of the infections from Christmas will have already been recorded.

EDIT: Thanks Raggs.

[tc27]

[JM2K6]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

We've seen the effect in the cases already, but the deaths... not yet. Scary as anything.

It's about 3 weeks from exposure to hospitalisation (a week before you develop symptoms, about 2 weeks from then for it to get real bad) from what my medical mates tell me.

so yeah, cases might not see a sharp jump, but I expect hospitalisations and deaths to.

[Raggs]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

Speaking of numbers, excuse my ignorance but what do you guys make of this?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 7/fulltext

People wanting to poke holes? It's a comment/letter to the journal, rather than a peer reviewed paper. Yes, false positives exist, and yes if they're very high it's bad.

They rather sink their own argument in my mind though. Pillar 2 testing with positivity at only 0.5% They get their 0.8-4% from another paper, which gets those figures from internet searches on external quality assessments of PCR tests on different RNA viruses (not covid).

If we're getting batches testing at less than 0.8% I'd argue that the false positive rate of PCR tests for COVID has got to be pretty damn low, and absolutely massively lower than 4%.

[JM2K6]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

Speaking of numbers, excuse my ignorance but what do you guys make of this?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 7/fulltext

I don't know enough on the topic to have any kind of opinion, would need to rely on expert analysis tbh.

[SaintK]

Change of plan? Sounds sensible.

NHS England has written to all healthcare providers in England telling them to vaccinate all staff immediately.
In another big change to the vaccine rollout, the move comes after weeks of NHS staff being told they had to wait until people in the first priority group were inoculated.
From the middle of January, all NHS trusts will be able to give vaccinations to local healthcare and social care workers in a bid to keep them and patients safe.
The news came amid higher than usual sickness rates among hospital and ambulance staff. Growing numbers of NHS workers have fallen ill or gone into isolation amid a huge surge in Covid infections.

[Saint]

Next week we'll see the impact of Xmas.

These numbers are fucking horrific.

Speaking of numbers, excuse my ignorance but what do you guys make of this?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 7/fulltext

People wanting to poke holes? It's a comment/letter to the journal, rather than a peer reviewed paper. Yes, false positives exist, and yes if they're very high it's bad.

They rather sink their own argument in my mind though. Pillar 2 testing with positivity at only 0.5% They get their 0.8-4% from another paper, which gets those figures from internet searches on external quality assessments of PCR tests on different RNA viruses (not covid).

If we're getting batches testing at less than 0.8% I'd argue that the false positive rate of PCR tests for COVID has got to be pretty damn low, and absolutely massively lower than 4%.

Pretty much how I read it. Most of the recommended research is sensible, but the chances of getting a reliable data within a time frame that's useful for Covid are small, and in many cases will consume resource that's absolutely needed elsewhere

[Saint]

Change of plan? Sounds sensible.

NHS England has written to all healthcare providers in England telling them to vaccinate all staff immediately.
In another big change to the vaccine rollout, the move comes after weeks of NHS staff being told they had to wait until people in the first priority group were inoculated.
From the middle of January, all NHS trusts will be able to give vaccinations to local healthcare and social care workers in a bid to keep them and patients safe.
The news came amid higher than usual sickness rates among hospital and ambulance staff. Growing numbers of NHS workers have fallen ill or gone into isolation amid a huge surge in Covid infections.

I think so seeing how we're now witnessing tge impact of the new variant on healthcare workers - it's so transmissible that even with PPE limiting exposure, workers aren't safe

[Un Pilier]

Had my first personal experience of how tight things are in the East Midlands (not as bad as some regions) this last couple of days. MiL (89) admitted by ambulance four days ago with Chest Infection. Two days ago temperature was dropping so the hospital decided to send her home - she lives alone with carer visits and has dementia. We pointed out we didn’t have her COVID test results yet. Not an issue apparently.

Turns out she has tested positive for COVID 19. Took two days to get an ambulance to take her home other than at late night / early morning hours. Really hard to get through to ward by phone (as in 3 - 4 hours trying) and when I did they asked if we could pick her up. I’m clinically vulnerable - said no. Contact tracing a bit of a nightmare because they have my wife’s mobile filed on my MiL’s record. When we got to talk to them though, they were very good. Home care company brilliant throughout. All pretty exhausting!

[Denny Crane]

Speaking of numbers, excuse my ignorance but what do you guys make of this?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 7/fulltext

People wanting to poke holes? It's a comment/letter to the journal, rather than a peer reviewed paper. Yes, false positives exist, and yes if they're very high it's bad.

They rather sink their own argument in my mind though. Pillar 2 testing with positivity at only 0.5% They get their 0.8-4% from another paper, which gets those figures from internet searches on external quality assessments of PCR tests on different RNA viruses (not covid).

If we're getting batches testing at less than 0.8% I'd argue that the false positive rate of PCR tests for COVID has got to be pretty damn low, and absolutely massively lower than 4%.

Pretty much how I read it. Most of the recommended research is sensible, but the chances of getting a reliable data within a time frame that's useful for Covid are small, and in many cases will consume resource that's absolutely needed elsewhere

Makes more sense when you put it like that, I thought it had more pedigree but it's beyond me really.

[fishfoodie]

Had my first personal experience of how tight things are in the East Midlands (not as bad as some regions) this last couple of days. MiL (89) admitted by ambulance four days ago with Chest Infection. Two days ago temperature was dropping so the hospital decided to send her home - she lives alone with carer visits and has dementia. We pointed out we didn’t have her COVID test results yet. Not an issue apparently.

Turns out she has tested positive for COVID 19. Took two days to get an ambulance to take her home other than at late night / early morning hours. Really hard to get through to ward by phone (as in 3 - 4 hours trying) and when I did they asked if we could pick her up. I’m clinically vulnerable - said no. Contact tracing a bit of a nightmare because they have my wife’s mobile filed on my MiL’s record. When we got to talk to them though, they were very good. Home care company brilliant throughout. All pretty exhausting!

There's a awful lot of people out there working their arses off in the health services, & care homes, supermarkets, & the supply chains to keep everything running under the most trying of circumstances. I like the way the Italians, & French are cutting thru the red tape to give citizenship to immigrants working like this; as for my money they are demonstrating every day that they love the Country they are living in.

If you can give he Island of Malta a George Cross for getting the shit bombed out of them for months; I think you should give the workers of the NHS one when this wave starts to turn downward

[C69]

Had my first personal experience of how tight things are in the East Midlands (not as bad as some regions) this last couple of days. MiL (89) admitted by ambulance four days ago with Chest Infection. Two days ago temperature was dropping so the hospital decided to send her home - she lives alone with carer visits and has dementia. We pointed out we didn’t have her COVID test results yet. Not an issue apparently.

Turns out she has tested positive for COVID 19. Took two days to get an ambulance to take her home other than at late night / early morning hours. Really hard to get through to ward by phone (as in 3 - 4 hours trying) and when I did they asked if we could pick her up. I’m clinically vulnerable - said no. Contact tracing a bit of a nightmare because they have my wife’s mobile filed on my MiL’s record. When we got to talk to them though, they were very good. Home care company brilliant throughout. All pretty exhausting!

There's a awful lot of people out there working their arses off in the health services, & care homes, supermarkets, & the supply chains to keep everything running under the most trying of circumstances. I like the way the Italians, & French are cutting thru the red tape to give citizenship to immigrants working like this; as for my money they are demonstrating every day that they love the Country they are living in.

If you can give he Island of Malta a George Cross for getting the shit bombed out of them for months; I think you should give the workers of the NHS one when this wave starts to turn downward

A proper pay rise when we are suppose to get one in April would be better...
Not a chance the Tories will give NHS AFC staff a decent rise in April

[Un Pilier]

Had my first personal experience of how tight things are in the East Midlands (not as bad as some regions) this last couple of days. MiL (89) admitted by ambulance four days ago with Chest Infection. Two days ago temperature was dropping so the hospital decided to send her home - she lives alone with carer visits and has dementia. We pointed out we didn’t have her COVID test results yet. Not an issue apparently.

Turns out she has tested positive for COVID 19. Took two days to get an ambulance to take her home other than at late night / early morning hours. Really hard to get through to ward by phone (as in 3 - 4 hours trying) and when I did they asked if we could pick her up. I’m clinically vulnerable - said no. Contact tracing a bit of a nightmare because they have my wife’s mobile filed on my MiL’s record. When we got to talk to them though, they were very good. Home care company brilliant throughout. All pretty exhausting!

There's a awful lot of people out there working their arses off in the health services, & care homes, supermarkets, & the supply chains to keep everything running under the most trying of circumstances. I like the way the Italians, & French are cutting thru the red tape to give citizenship to immigrants working like this; as for my money they are demonstrating every day that they love the Country they are living in.

If you can give he Island of Malta a George Cross for getting the shit bombed out of them for months; I think you should give the workers of the NHS one when this wave starts to turn downward

I don’t disagree with that. Can’t claim everyone I have spoken to has been special (or even competent in a couple of cases) but it’s clearly a tough gig at the moment. I will say again the home care people have been fantastic.

[SaintK]

Just back from a 5 mile walk around the edge of town.
Couldn't believe just how many cars were out and about. I reckon about half of them had 2 or more people inside
The Wickes car park was full of cars, a warehouse called The Range (whoever they are) was also very busy. There appeared to be very little social distancing by adults in one of the kids playgrounds I passed!
It's going to taker more thaan an advertising campaign and pleading by the blonde slug to get people lockdown compliant with this new strain compared to the 1st lockdown

[Paddington Bear]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

[Slick]

Pretty quiet in Edinburgh. A few more cars than there should be I’d say but generally folk seem to be compliant

[Slick]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

Has amazed me for most of my life how few people know the incredible countryside right on their doorstep in the Chilterns. Go 200m off the main roads and you are in stunning rural areas with no one about

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

Has amazed me for most of my life how few people know the incredible countryside right on their doorstep in the Chilterns. Go 200m off the main roads and you are in stunning rural areas with no one about

Too many short, steep hills when cycling though

[duke]

Pretty quiet around Salisbury today - pleasant surprise when I got to Wilton and they were using a hall for vaccinations, seemed to be well sorted and getting through them at a fair rate

[Slick]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

Has amazed me for most of my life how few people know the incredible countryside right on their doorstep in the Chilterns. Go 200m off the main roads and you are in stunning rural areas with no one about

Too many short, steep hills when cycling though

And much of it has now been torn up for HS2 of course

[Paddington Bear]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

Has amazed me for most of my life how few people know the incredible countryside right on their doorstep in the Chilterns. Go 200m off the main roads and you are in stunning rural areas with no one about

Beyond the Chess Valley Way that comes up on google, I can spend most of the day hardly seeing a soul without being more than 5/10 miles from a decent sized town or leaving waymarket footpaths.
People who live in the area have no idea either, and end up driving to places like Box Hill

[Insane_Homer]

Last 7 days 6,255 (+2,121 51.3%)

[Slick]

Similar to SaintK’s experience in the south of the county. Chilterns footpaths pretty deserted (which is fantastic covid or not), but roads were packed, M25 looked busy as well.
We need a change of messaging urgently

Has amazed me for most of my life how few people know the incredible countryside right on their doorstep in the Chilterns. Go 200m off the main roads and you are in stunning rural areas with no one about

Beyond the Chess Valley Way that comes up on google, I can spend most of the day hardly seeing a soul without being more than 5/10 miles from a decent sized town or leaving waymarket footpaths.
People who live in the area have no idea either, and end up driving to places like Box Hill

Yeah, sorry, wasn’t clear, I meant people who live in the area. No idea.

[Biffer]

Pretty quiet in Edinburgh. A few more cars than there should be I’d say but generally folk seem to be compliant

I took a walk into town yesterday. Pretty quiet although substantially busier than it was in the original lockdown.

[Un Pilier]

Police in South Derbyshire have been going at it quite hard at a few obvious outdoor areas people tend to drive to. Had to back off a fair bit given some allegations of heavy handed issue of fixed penalty notices etc. They seem to be trying to enforce the guidance about staying home and exercising locally (whatever locally means). Their problem is the guidance is just that and has no legal force.

I’m afraid pleading with people to do the right thing isn’t going to get us very far this time round.

[Openside]

Police in South Derbyshire have been going at it quite hard at a few obvious outdoor areas people tend to drive to. Had to back off a fair bit given some allegations of heavy handed issue of fixed penalty notices etc. They seem to be trying to enforce the guidance about staying home and exercising locally (whatever locally means). Their problem is the guidance is just that and has no legal force.

I’m afraid pleading with people to do the right thing isn’t going to get us very far this time round.

Yes the two friends who had driven 5 miles to walk together were fined £200 as the travel coffee mugs they were carrying allegedly constituted a picnic. That sort of shit isn’t helpful....

[Slick]

Police in South Derbyshire have been going at it quite hard at a few obvious outdoor areas people tend to drive to. Had to back off a fair bit given some allegations of heavy handed issue of fixed penalty notices etc. They seem to be trying to enforce the guidance about staying home and exercising locally (whatever locally means). Their problem is the guidance is just that and has no legal force.

I’m afraid pleading with people to do the right thing isn’t going to get us very far this time round.

Yes the two friends who had driven 5 miles to walk together were fined £200 as the travel coffee mugs they were carrying allegedly constituted a picnic. That sort of shit isn’t helpful....

The pair of them seem to be hating the publicity...

[tc27]

In my town all the GP's are running a 'super vaccination clinic' together in one of the council buildings starting from Monday aiming to do 'thousands per week'. I get the impression things will really start picking up steam next week.

I see Devi Sridar is flogging her 'we eliminated CV in Scotland ' line without any push back from commentators.