So, coronavirus...
Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.
UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.
20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.
UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.
20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.
I drink and I forget things.
- FalseBayFC
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Jeez, I hope we're at the peak of Second wave here. Our hospitals are nearing collapse.Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.
UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.
20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.
- tabascoboy
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Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective
A coronavirus vaccine developed by China's Sinovac has been found to be 50.4% effective in Brazilian clinical trials, according to the latest results released by researchers.
It shows the vaccine is significantly less effective than previous data suggested - barely over the 50% needed for regulatory approval.
The Chinese vaccine is one of two that the Brazilian government has lined up.
Brazil has been one of the countries worst affected by Covid-19.
Sinovac, a Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company, is behind CoronaVac, an inactivated vaccine. It works by using killed viral particles to expose the body's immune system to the virus without risking a serious disease response.
Several countries, including Indonesia, Turkey and Singapore, have placed orders for the vaccine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55642648
Same old stuff as per flu vaccine. Inevitably some folk will have contracted flu/covid19 before vaccine but be symptom free when being vaccinated, others will contract it immediately after getting vaccine and before it becomes fully active. However they then blame the vaccine for giving them flu/covid19. Given umbers involved we sill see lots of examples of this.
There are some signs the peak is in sight but its going to be an awful few days yet.FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:08 amJeez, I hope we're at the peak of Second wave here. Our hospitals are nearing collapse.Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.
UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.
20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.
It’s a very crude comparison but the population of the US is roughly 5 times that of the UK.Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.
UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.
20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.
Yup that makes sense.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:19 amSame old stuff as per flu vaccine. Inevitably some folk will have contracted flu/covid19 before vaccine but be symptom free when being vaccinated, others will contract it immediately after getting vaccine and before it becomes fully active. However they then blame the vaccine for giving them flu/covid19. Given umbers involved we sill see lots of examples of this.
Not so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.
What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.
I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 amNot so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.
What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.
Indeed. People I talk to are saying "We just need the vaccine, then I can get back to a normal life again"
No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!
No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!
- Insane_Homer
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the 4 cunts sitting closest to me today on train, all had their masks under their noses. FML!
last night's data.
last night's data.
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 amI thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 amNot so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.
What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.
Vaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.
I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.
Flu doesn't have the same long term effects as covid. I mean we know of a poster who's ended up with an embolism on their lung, I know of someone else waiting on a new kidney after covid has destroyed theirs (again, healthy before). Flu doesn't fuck people up like this does.tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 amVaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.
I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Its a difficult one and we still don't have a real exit strategy from any of the Govs beyond lets vaccinate everyone but that doesn't really make an exit strategy.tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 amVaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.
I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.
Vaccination is obviously key and and we need to vaccinate 66.5 million folk involving 2 injections = 133m injections or about 100m if we exclude u16s. c15m are under 16 and we don't have a vaccine for them yet and/or if the plan is to vaccinate them, I presume it is? We don't know for sure if those vaccinated can still transmit the virus and we dont know how long immunity lasts for. We also don't know if new variants will emerge and if vaccines will still be effective. We also don't know how many folk will accept the vaccine and of those that do will it be sufficient in order to develop herd immunity. Looks like vaccination programme might take some months to do the numbers to develop herd immunity and we might need a programme of vaccination/boosters, as per the flu, next year as well?
For me I think we need to think carefully about how and when we open up society and the economy and in what stages. Obviously if we have vaccinated older and vulnerable folk then we can hopefully reduce deaths but we still need to remember c10% of those infected have longer term health issues and we don't want to create a longer term health problem of folk with heart, lung, vascular, stroke, post viral syndromes, issues etc. Until we have vaccinated enough folk for herd immunity we will still have a significant number of our pop at risk. What are the priorities beyond schools and what are the incremental steps? Is it going back down the tiers/levels in reverse? Will it be a regional process or a national one? What are the key indicators that will be used to make these decisions?
Track, test and trace will remain a vital weapon and will remain critical in managing transmission for next 6 months and beyond. It seems to have dropped off the radar but needs major improvement and refocusing to make sure it is fit for purpose to support the vaccine roll out. Without it we will struggle to manage any recovery and potentially continue to have reactive major lock downs for months.
The health service has taken a huge hit, particularly the workforce. The backlog of waiting times is huge and undiagnosed health problems will surface. What are the plans and priorities for the NHS beyond this current wave and once the hospitalisation rates begin to drop. How do we support the workforce recover and how do we ramp up elective work to address the backlog. Asking the same system to do the same things in the same way will mean it will take 5 years to get back to where we were, and that assumes we retain our existing workforce.
Borders remain a concern. Whilst it is fantastic that we are leading in vaccination rollout other countries will be months, if not years, behind. The US for example on current trajectory will take 5+ years to vaccinate its population. We need a strategy to control the borders and to avoid importing variants of the virus that might not be protected by our vaccines. We see some border controls being put in place but from what I read we are not very good in making sure these are robust and adhered to. Whilst we might have a vaccination programme in place are we really going to have travel opened up this year? It might be a very limited and phased process this year?
Hopefully we will see some return to something like normal, if that means having a pint in a beer garden, by spring/early summer but it could be the rest of the year before full normality and overseas travel becomes the norm. I've booked a golf trip to France in September, not sure I would be confident of much earlier.
There appears to be some geographical discrepencies on prioritising which age groups should be receiving the vaccination
Brother in law in Gloucestershire aged 75 to receive his on Fiday. In laws in Surrey aged 90 and 85 not receiving theirs until last day of January
Assuming this is an age/local population thing rather than a distribution issue?
Brother in law in Gloucestershire aged 75 to receive his on Fiday. In laws in Surrey aged 90 and 85 not receiving theirs until last day of January
Assuming this is an age/local population thing rather than a distribution issue?
New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 amLast I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 amI thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 am
Not so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.
What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:40 pmIts a difficult one and we still don't have a real exit strategy from any of the Govs beyond lets vaccinate everyone but that doesn't really make an exit strategy.tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 amVaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.
I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.
Vaccination is obviously key and and we need to vaccinate 66.5 million folk involving 2 injections = 133m injections or about 100m if we exclude u16s. c15m are under 16 and we don't have a vaccine for them yet and/or if the plan is to vaccinate them, I presume it is? We don't know for sure if those vaccinated can still transmit the virus and we dont know how long immunity lasts for. We also don't know if new variants will emerge and if vaccines will still be effective. We also don't know how many folk will accept the vaccine and of those that do will it be sufficient in order to develop herd immunity. Looks like vaccination programme might take some months to do the numbers to develop herd immunity and we might need a programme of vaccination/boosters, as per the flu, next year as well?
For me I think we need to think carefully about how and when we open up society and the economy and in what stages. Obviously if we have vaccinated older and vulnerable folk then we can hopefully reduce deaths but we still need to remember c10% of those infected have longer term health issues and we don't want to create a longer term health problem of folk with heart, lung, vascular, stroke, post viral syndromes, issues etc. Until we have vaccinated enough folk for herd immunity we will still have a significant number of our pop at risk. What are the priorities beyond schools and what are the incremental steps? Is it going back down the tiers/levels in reverse? Will it be a regional process or a national one? What are the key indicators that will be used to make these decisions?
Track, test and trace will remain a vital weapon and will remain critical in managing transmission for next 6 months and beyond. It seems to have dropped off the radar but needs major improvement and refocusing to make sure it is fit for purpose to support the vaccine roll out. Without it we will struggle to manage any recovery and potentially continue to have reactive major lock downs for months.
The health service has taken a huge hit, particularly the workforce. The backlog of waiting times is huge and undiagnosed health problems will surface. What are the plans and priorities for the NHS beyond this current wave and once the hospitalisation rates begin to drop. How do we support the workforce recover and how do we ramp up elective work to address the backlog. Asking the same system to do the same things in the same way will mean it will take 5 years to get back to where we were, and that assumes we retain our existing workforce.
Borders remain a concern. Whilst it is fantastic that we are leading in vaccination rollout other countries will be months, if not years, behind. The US for example on current trajectory will take 5+ years to vaccinate its population. We need a strategy to control the borders and to avoid importing variants of the virus that might not be protected by our vaccines. We see some border controls being put in place but from what I read we are not very good in making sure these are robust and adhered to. Whilst we might have a vaccination programme in place are we really going to have travel opened up this year? It might be a very limited and phased process this year?
Hopefully we will see some return to something like normal, if that means having a pint in a beer garden, by spring/early summer but it could be the rest of the year before full normality and overseas travel becomes the norm. I've booked a golf trip to France in September, not sure I would be confident of much earlier.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Its my take on things and I expect others more knowledgeable to correct some of my thoughts and assumptions. However we will get there and there are lots of unexpected bonuses, such as I expect holidays in UK to boom this year and help local economies particularly rural and coastal ones. I also expect lots of business travel and commuting to continue at lower levels as folk have learnt we can work from home more easily and the environment might benefit? Although some city/business centres might continue to struggle the economies in local suburban areas will benefit as folk stay more local, work flexibly and use local traders, leisure facilities, etc. Golf clubs have seen a boom in memberships!
However the worst thing that can happen is the plan is to go back the way we were, this is a real opportunity to make some positive changes and I hope this isn't missed.
Is this because they are furthest ahead with vaccination programme and have been able to collect the data?Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pmNew research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.
Yepdpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:10 pmIs this because they are furthest ahead with vaccination programme and have been able to collect the data?
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-majo ... 1001357016
I’d expect to see a lot of studies of this type being done in the next few months, giving better indications of overall effectiveness, the percentage of infection / serious illness / hospitalisation prevented, and a lot of the other questions people have asked as well.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Good news - cheers!Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:13 pmYep
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-majo ... 1001357016
I’d expect to see a lot of studies of this type being done in the next few months, giving better indications of overall effectiveness, the percentage of infection / serious illness / hospitalisation prevented, and a lot of the other questions people have asked as well.
Sadly I think the opportunity will be missed. Everyone you spoke to during the 1st lockdown was marvelling about how clean the air was and how nice it was to have less cars about. As soon as it was over folk were back in their cars driving 1/2 mile down the road. In saying that, there are lots more people who seem to be outdoors of a weekend and enjoying the beaches and countryside. Not that I want them there but you can't have everything.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:09 pmIts my take on things and I expect others more knowledgeable to correct some of my thoughts and assumptions. However we will get there and there are lots of unexpected bonuses, such as I expect holidays in UK to boom this year and help local economies particularly rural and coastal ones. I also expect lots of business travel and commuting to continue at lower levels as folk have learnt we can work from home more easily and the environment might benefit? Although some city/business centres might continue to struggle the economies in local suburban areas will benefit as folk stay more local, work flexibly and use local traders, leisure facilities, etc. Golf clubs have seen a boom in memberships!
However the worst thing that can happen is the plan is to go back the way we were, this is a real opportunity to make some positive changes and I hope this isn't missed.
I guess you could forgive government for concentrating on the here and now but it seems an ideal opportunity to have a "taskforce" looking at how we can change and maintain the positive changes. An example is the drive to get better, and more, bike lanes in cities that started and now seems to have died a death.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Seriously, I hope you're right. This virus has already mutated to a more infectious version in less than 12 months. Next Xmas it may move again into a much more deadly beast that targets kids or something. All bets are off on Covid19 IMO.
Thats good. Got a link for that?Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pmNew research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.
I suppose thats the difference between an aspiration and a strategy? Cross your fingers and hope history repeats itself and that the collateral damage isn't to bad or actively plan for the desired outcome. I suggest we probably need to do both to minimise the risk?
Oh absolutely. I wasn't making fun of anyone "Not a Russian bot's" opinion. I back the science 100%. Where I see failings are in 1) UK Govt policy -particularly around borders and enforcing lockdowns and 2) some people being selfish cnuts.dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:22 pmI suppose thats the difference between an aspiration and a strategy? Cross your fingers and hope history repeats itself and that the collateral damage isn't to bad or actively plan for the desired outcome. I suggest we probably need to do both to minimise the risk?
Viruses which cause worse disease tend not to become dominant, purely through evolutionary pressure. If you think about it, a virus that makes you more seriously ill means you come in contact with fewer people, so will transmit less. One which makes you more only mildly ill will spread because you are likely to come into contact with more people. So milder disease strains become more dominant.
That’s the way it works with viruses which are already endemic, obviously. The disruptor is when something jumps species, as this has done. I would be more worried about further jumps - that’s now three coronaviruses which have jumped into humans in less than twenty years. Prior to that there were only four endemic coronaviruses in humans.
Last edited by Biffer on Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Posted above but here it is againJock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:18 pmThats good. Got a link for that?
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-majo ... 1001357016
And another one
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-d ... cine-shot/
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
That's a pressure where the virus runs out of people to infect, and it's more than just death. If you only kill after a good week of spreading, it's not such a problem, if you aren't killing too many (and even 5% is hardly going to make a big dent in truth). Higher transmission is in some ways a more evolutionary backwards step, as it will infect entire populations, and not be able to come back around to earlier hosts, as they'll still be carrying some degree of immunity.Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:55 pmViruses which cause worse disease tend not to become dominant, purely through evolutionary pressure. If you think about it, a virus that makes you more seriously ill means you come in contact with fewer people, so will transmit less. One which makes you more only mildly ill will spread more because you are likely to come into contact with more people. So milder disease strains become more dominant.
Right now it has billions of potential hosts, and killing off 5% of that, relatively slowly, and mainly non-reproducing ones, is not going to effect it. In truth there are no real pressures on the virus apart from the ones we choose to impose on it. It has ample hosts to infect.
And yes, viruses that wipe out their entire host population don't tend to do well, but then neither do the host populations...
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
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I believe it's actually more than that, depending on when you start counting. All the vaccines take a couple of weeks to have any effect but I think the 50% rate includes infections during that period. If you look past that, the rate is nearer 80%. I think the figures I saw were from the Moderna vaccine but Pfizer should be similar.Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pmNew research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.
World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-c ... gion=World is yet to be updated for yesterday's figures but had the UK at 2.68 million doses delivered as of 11th January.
Scotland, Wales, NI have been averaging at only 25K per day and need to seriously accelerate (Scotland and Wales anyway) but we should be at around 2.9 million or so delivered in total by now - so nearly 3% of the job completed
Scotland hadn’t been anywhere near 25k a day until yesterday, 26k reported vaccinated on Tuesday. Health secretary stated an aim of 400k per week by the end of Feb, which is fucking ambitious as that’d cover the entire population in 13 weeks! If the UK target is 2 million / week, Scottish equivalent would be about 170k per week. Which is 25k per day if you’re going seven days a week.Saint wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:48 pmWorld in Data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-c ... gion=World is yet to be updated for yesterday's figures but had the UK at 2.68 million doses delivered as of 11th January.
Scotland, Wales, NI have been averaging at only 25K per day and need to seriously accelerate (Scotland and Wales anyway) but we should be at around 2.9 million or so delivered in total by now - so nearly 3% of the job completed
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Should be able get the central belt done at something like that rate with a few hubs and GP surgeries. Will be more difficult in rural areas may well need logistical support from the army.Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:36 pmScotland hadn’t been anywhere near 25k a day until yesterday, 26k reported vaccinated on Tuesday. Health secretary stated an aim of 400k per week by the end of Feb, which is fucking ambitious as that’d cover the entire population in 13 weeks! If the UK target is 2 million / week, Scottish equivalent would be about 170k per week. Which is 25k per day if you’re going seven days a week.Saint wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:48 pmWorld in Data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-c ... gion=World is yet to be updated for yesterday's figures but had the UK at 2.68 million doses delivered as of 11th January.
Scotland, Wales, NI have been averaging at only 25K per day and need to seriously accelerate (Scotland and Wales anyway) but we should be at around 2.9 million or so delivered in total by now - so nearly 3% of the job completed